The trans pacific partnership and its effects on vietnam seafood exports

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING FOREIGN TRADE UNIVERSITY GRADUATION THESIS The Trans-Pacific Partnership and its effects on Vietnam seafood exports Student: Luong Thanh Tra Class: International Trade Law and Policy Supervisor: Assoc Prof Dr Vu Hoang Nam Hanoi, 2017 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT On accomplishing this study, first and foremost, I would like to show my deep gratitude towards my supervisor, Associate Professor Doctor Vu Hoang Nam Director of Department of International Affairs at Foreign Trade University for his enthusiastic assistance in giving me priceless suggestions as well as instructions Secondly, I specifically feel grateful to all my professors of International Trade Law and Policy program from Foreign Trade University as well as World Trade Institution for knowledge, lessons and helping me overcome the difficulties in finishing this study Finally, my gratitude also needs offering to my family and my friends at MITPL3 for their valuable support and encouragement during the completion of my graduation thesis COMMITMENT I hereby confirm that my study is an independent research The information given in this paper is true The findings in this study are analysed honestly and objectively This study has not been published in any other research Student Luong Thanh Tra i TABLE OF CONTENT INTRODUCTION LITERATURE REVIEW CHAPTER INTRODUCTION OF TPP AND THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS ON SEAFOOD EXPORT ACTIVITIES IN VIETNAM 1.1 Overview of the TPP 1.1.1 Background and negotiation process 1.1.2 The TPP‟s member countries .7 1.1.3 Objectives and main contents 1.2 The role of seafood export in Vietnam economy 11 1.2.1 Contribute to economic growth and development 12 1.2.2 An important export source and increase foreign exchange 13 1.2.3 Jobs creation, poverty reduction .14 1.2.4 Ensure food security 15 1.2.5 Ensure water territory, national security and defense 15 1.3 Theoretical framework and indexes 16 1.3.1 Shallow integration 17 1.3.2 Deep integration .20 1.3.3 Methodology: Sussex Framework and indexes 23 CHAPTER THE TPP’S EFFECTS ON VIETNAM SEAFOOD EXPORT 28 2.1 Resources of Vietnam seafood industry 28 2.1.1 Natural resources 28 2.1.2 Social and economic conditions .29 2.1.3 Current status of mining, aquaculture, seafood processing 30 2.2 Vietnam seafood export situation 32 2.2.1 Overview of Vietnam seafood export activity 32 2.2.2 Seafood exported to TPP member countries 46 2.2.3 Seafood exported to non-TPP member countries .56 2.3 SWOT analysis of Vietnam seafood export in the context of TPP 62 2.3.1 Strengths 62 ii 2.3.2 Weakness 63 2.3.3 Opportunities 65 2.3.4 Threatens 65 2.4 Evaluation on TPP's effects on Vietnam seafood exports 68 2.4.1 Shallow integration effects .68 2.4.2 Deep integration effects 77 2.5 Review and evaluation 84 CHAPTER MEASURES TO STRENGTHEN VIETNAM SEAFOOD EXPORT IN THE CONTEXT OF TPP (2016-2020) 85 3.1 Forecast of world seafood demand and Vietnam supply 2020 - 2030 85 3.1.1 Forecast of global seafood demand 85 3.1.2 Forecast of Vietnam seafood production and exports 87 3.1.3 Vietnam government and orientation of fishery development 88 3.2 Measures to strengthen Vietnam seafood export in TPP context, 2016-2020 90 3.2.1 Measures of government 90 3.2.2 Measures of enterprises 94 CONCLUSION 96 REFERENCES 97 iii LIST OF TABLES Table TPP members and economic statistics, 2015 Table Contribution of economic sectors to Vietnam economic growth 2011-2015 13 Table Fishing vessels with 90 CV capacity or more, 2010-2015E .31 Table Vietnam Seafood Exports by Products yearly 2011-2015 35 Table Vietnam seafood export by products, 2015 36 Table Value of Vietnamese seafood exported to 11 TPP members, 2010-2015 47 Table US per capita consumption of fish and shellfish, 1990-2014 .48 Table Seafood importation of the US, 2014-2015 49 Table Top ten seafood suppliers of the US 2014-2016 50 Table 10 Top ten seafood suppliers of Japan, 2015 55 Table 11 Japan‟s seafood importation from Vietnam, 2012-2016 55 Table 12 Import seafood of China by products, 2014-2015 58 Table 13 Shrimps exported from Vietnam to China by species, 9M.2016 60 Table 14 Simple average tariffs applying, 2007-2015 .70 Table 15 RCA indexes in HS Codes 03 products by country, 2012-2015 74 Table 16 Trade intensity index of Vietnam‟s export to TPP bloc, 2012-2015 75 Table 17 World seafood demand by regions 2020-2030 86 Table 18 Forecast of Vietnam seafood supply 2020-2030 88 iv LIST OF FIRGURES Figure Top 10 major export products of Vietnam by value, 11 months 2016 14 Figure Fishery productions and growth 1995 - 2015 31 Figure Seafood export value and growth in 2000-2015 33 Figure Vietnam seafood export structure by products, 2015 36 Figure Vietnam shrimp export value and growth 2005-2015 .37 Figure Vietnam pangasius export 2004-2016E .39 Figure Vietnam tuna exports, 2015-2016 .41 Figure Comparison of Vietnam seafood export value to World, TPP and non-TPP member countries 2010-2015 45 Figure Vietnam seafood export markets structure by value, 2015 .46 Figure 10 Vietnam seafood exported to US by products, 2000-2015 51 Figure 11 Simple average tariffs (AHS) applying on Vietnam‟s seafood products by HS Codes, 2012-2015 (%) 71 Figure 12 The GL Index between Vietnam and TPP, HS Codes 03, 2012-2015 78 v LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ASEAN The Association of Southeast Asian Nations FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FDI Foreign Direct Investment FTA Free Trade Agreement GDP Gross Domestic Product HS Codes Harmonized System Codes 2012 by World Customs Organization HS Codes 03 03 Fish, crustaceans, mollusks, aquatic invertebrates JPY Japanese Yen MARD Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development of Vietnam MFN Most Favoured Nation NAFIQAD National Argo, Forestry, Fisheries Quality Assurance Department (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development of Vietnam) NAFIQAD National Argo, Forestry, Fisheries Quality Assurance Department (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development of Vietnam) NOAA National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (The United States Department of Commerce) SPS Sanitary and Phytosanitary TBT Technical Barriers to Trade The US The United States of America TPP Trans-Pacific Partnership USD United States Dollar VASEP Vietnam Association of Seafood Exports and Producers VND Vietnamese Dong INTRODUCTION Rationale of the study The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a new-generation free trade agreement and also one of the biggest multinational trade deals among twelve economies along two sides of Pacific Ocean (including Vietnam) With a wide range of commitments and deep liberalization, the TPP will certainly have strong impact on the whole economic institutions of member countries as well as import and export activities In addition, Vietnam export activities play a very important role in promoting economic growth; raise capital to industrialize and modernize country; shift the economic structure towards positive direction Domestic jobs are largely resolved; the external economic relations are also open wide In order to achieve those targets, one of main solutions is key export commodities construction and development Among top ten export commodities of Vietnam, seafood has much potential for development and has gained many achievements in recent years Vietnam has good relative advantages on length of continental coastline and large sea area to develop fishery sector However, there are still many restrictions that potential development can not be fully exploited; especially in complicated economy nowadays Many economists says that TPP will bring a “bright picture” for Vietnam‟s economy in general but whether joining the TPP will bring benefits to seafood exports of Vietnam or not Vietnam seafood exports will follow the same direction as judgment of economists about Vietnam‟s benefits or not? To answer this question, I choose the title: “The Trans-Pacific Partnership and its effects on Vietnam seafood exports” for my graduation thesis Aim of study Author researches fishery industry and seafood export activity of Vietnam in the context of TPP in order to answer the question: How TPP affects to Vietnam seafood export and whether Vietnam seafood exports will get benefits from joining TPP or not as well as which solutions are suitable to promote Vietnam seafood exports in the context of TPP Scope of the study The study research on Vietnam fishery and seafood export situation; mainly in the markets which are major countries importing Vietnam seafood and focuses on major export products This study analyses and focuses on Vietnam seafood export in the context of TPP and impacts that TPP may bring Research methodology Author uses qualitative research methodology and secondary information to achieve the mentioned purpose Base on impact analysis of an FTA to an industry which are shallow and integration as well as the concept of trade creation and trade diversion in particular, author collects trade data of Vietnam in general and trade data of Vietnam seafood in specific Later, author applies rules of thumb from Sussex Framework in order to identify wherether Vietnam seafood export gains or loses Some indexes are used in the thesis to analyse those impacts of TPP to Vietnam seafood and make rules of thumb more clearly such as revealed comparative advantage, trade intensity index and Grubel–Lloyd index Structure of the thesis Excluding the Introduction and Conclusion, the thesis consists three chapters: Chapter Introduction of the TPP and the possible effects on seafood export activities in Vietnam Chapter The TPP‟s effects on Vietnam seafood export Chapter Measures to strengthen Vietnam seafood exports in the context of TPP LITERATURE REVIEW The TPP agreement has been drawing attention from not only Vietnamese but also foreign economists, researchers and enterprises Currently, there are a number of papers, studies and research reports assessing impact of TPP on Vietnam‟s economy However, the number of paper and research addressing impact of TPP on fish and seafood is quite humble We can find some papers and researches with different perspectives such as: “TPP integration – Opportunities and Challenges for Vietnam seafood” by PhD Dang Le Hoa from Nong Lam University published in the summary record of TPP workshop in June 20016: The paper provided a general picture of Vietnam seafood industry and Vietnam seafood imports and exports with TPP member countries, especially the US and Japan The paper also addressed opportunities and challenges from TPP for Vietnam seafood However, the paper just provided general comments and did not use any theoretical framework nor models to analysis TPP‟s impacts It also did not provide specific impacts nor recommendations for Vietnam seafood industry Similar to this study, the paper “TPP and effects on Vietnam’s tuna export” by Kim Thu published in March 2015: Author provided very general evaluation on opportunities and challenges that TPP might bring to Vietnam tuna export No specific assessment was addressed ”Impacts of TPP to trade of products of Vietnam” by Assoc PhD Hoang Duc Than from National Economics University published in summary records of National Science Workshop in 2016: The paper concluded that the labor-intensive industries and some agricultural products would benefit the most This stems from the theoretical advantages of international trade while Vietnam has a lower level than other countries in the TPP Footwear, textiles, seafood and agricultural products will increase their exports to the TPP countries Fisheries benefit from exports to the Japanese market while import tariff reduction to 0% in comparison with an average of 6.4 to 7.2% current import tax 88 Table 18 Forecast of Vietnam seafood supply 2020-2030 No Criteria Unit 2020 2025 2030 I Total seafood production 1,000 tons 7,000 8,000 9,000 Aquaculture 1,000 tons 4,550 5,425 6,300 Capture 1,000 tons 2,450 2,575 2,700 II Process for exporting Quantity 1,000 tons 2,000 2,300 2,600 Value III Total raw material demand 1,000 tons 6,080 7,324 8,568 Process for exporting 1,000 tons 4,180 4,410 4,640 Process for domestic demand 1,000 tons 1,900 2,914 3,928 Million USD 11,000 15,500 20,000 Source: Calculations of Vietnam Institute of Fisheries Economics and Planning In Southeast Asia, Vietnam is expected to be the second largest country in seafood production (after Indonesia) Seafood export proportion is expected to increase to 43% of total production but the export growth rate will probably fall to about 2.0% in the period 2013-2022 Estimated in 2030, the proportion of seafood will account for 43.5% in GDP of agriculture; the total output of fish and seafood products reach million tons, of which, aquaculture production account for about 75% It is estimated that total seafood production of Vietnam will reach about 3,170 tons and generate 20 billion USD in 2030, with an average annual growth rate at 6% to 7% per year in the period from 2020 to 2030 3.1.3 Vietnam government and orientation of fishery development The government has issued Decision no 1690 QĐ-TTg approving Vietnam's Fisheries Development Strategy through 2020, outlining its development perspectives and three major goals by sector and geography a Development Orientation of fishery industry Fishery should be developed as an industry of prestige and high competitiveness in the global economic integration, increasingly contributing to the development of 89 Vietnam as a nation rich in sea and prosperous by sea The strategy focuses on the economic and labor restructuring, together with industrialization, modernization and seafood production by the value chain from raw materials to consumer goods in order to optimize the seafood production The living quality and living conditions of fishermen should be improved; their capability should also be trained and enhanced Fisheries development should be promoted in quality and sustainability, harmonizing the relationship between value-added enhancements and quality assurance, SPS and environmental protection while being associated with the protection of national sovereignty at sea State management on fisheries should be strengthened via scientific approaches to the integrated fisheries management b Objectives to 2020 The three main goals set by the Government for the fisheries sector by 2020 include: (i) The sector will be basically industrialized, modernized and keep comprehensively developing with sustainability, quality, efficiency, reputation, high competitiveness and stable integration into the global economy; (ii) The sector will contribute 30% to 35% of GDP in the sector of agriculture, forestry and fisheries, with the production growth rate of 8% to 10% per year, seafood export turnover of to billion USD, and total output of aquatic products of 6.5 to million tons, 65% to 70% of which are farmed stocks; (iii) Five million jobs will be created with the per capita income three times as high as the current one; and over 40% of fishing workers will be trained c Strategic orientation The fisheries development will focus on the mining and protection of aquatic resources; aquaculture, processing and selling of seafood; shipbuilding and fishing logistics services The document also described the development orientation of particular regions in Vietnam Ten projects and schemes on master plan, development, research and renovation of fisheries towards 2020 have been licensed by the Government, reflecting the Government‟s deep concern and focus on the development of the fisheries in general, actively helping accelerate the fisheries 90 exports Financing for the Strategy is estimated 57,400 billion VND, raised from various sources including the state budget, individuals, businesses, foreign direct investments and others in accordance with the law of Vietnam 3.2 Measures to strengthen Vietnam seafood export in TPP context, 2016-2020 In the context of the TPP, author would like to submit some measures from the perspectives of government and enterprises as followings: 3.2.1 Measures of government Firstly, Government should review and complete its legislation on fishery, especially the Law on Fisheries approved in 2003 It was out of date and need to be update In particular, the environment is a big concern for seafood export because it will maintain a stable and healthy supply of Vietnam seafood The quality of seafood products, being considered significantly important in export, can be much affected by the operations of other unrelated sectors The most recent case is industrial waste discharge by Formosa, causing the mass fish deaths in Central Vietnam This has hugely influenced the yield and quality of seafood products in general and the health and food safety in particular Many countries are more cautious about importing seafood from Vietnam after this incident Although no specific assessment issued concerning the damage facing the fisheries sector after the environmental disaster, the consequences for the aquatic output and seafood exports quality are obviously huge The number of Vietnam‟s consignments returned due to high antibiotic and chemical residues since the disaster has tended to increase However, all chapters II of Law of fisheries only mentioned to protecting and preserving living environment of seafood types and seafood sources but did not provide any strict rules or punishment on people or organizations that polluted environment and caused bad impacts to seafood export activity Author proposes Government should adapt a new chapter on general environment impact assessment and apply penalty (not only finance but also more strict punishment such as imprisonment) Therefore, it is critical for the Government to have a mechanism to 91 manage, inspect and strictly punish the practices that cause environmental pollution in general and marine pollution in particular Every decision of the Government on industrial projects should be considered carefully and evaluated environmentally as it can cause similar environmental disasters in the future like what Formosa did In addition, Government should improve administrative procedures and business environment following Decision no 08 QĐ-TTg dated 6/1/2015 on the issuance of plan for the simplification of the administrative procedure and Resolution no 19/NQ-CP dated 12/3/2015 on major solutions to further improve business environment and enhance national competitiveness and Circular no 48/2013/TTBNNPTNT on inspection, certificate of food safety and export Accordingly, focusing on regulations and administrative procedures related to seafood export (from aquaculture, exploiting seafood and raw materials for export) is really important to fit TPP‟s rules and commitments on the ecological environment, fisheries resources, social responsibility, intellectual property, so that Vietnam‟s seafood associations and enterprises can follow and comply with the commitments when entering into the TPP This will help the fisheries sector in general and enterprises in particular to avoid unnecessary risks in the involvement in the TPP such as anti-dumping cases or violations against TBT and SPS Secondly, Government should also establish quick response channels and specialized agencies to help solving as fast as possible the problems and complaints from enterprises about seafood exports (if any) Mechanisms should be sharp to support and protect Vietnam‟s seafood enterprises against the lawsuits made by other countries Being sued in big markets, though that is the case of several enterprises only, may affect the reputation and image of Vietnam‟s seafood products in the world market For that reason, the Government should provide prompt and proper supports so that the cases are handled quickly, clearly, in accordance with rules and on the spirit of support for domestic seafood exporters Thirdly, Government should invest more in fishery industry especially for processing systems, material production systems Government also should have strategy and measures to transfer technology, support domestic material producers 92 for seafood This will reduce the dependence on materials from foreign enterprises and partly reduce prices of Vietnam‟s export seafood as well as relatively increasing seafood‟s competitiveness In fact, the cost of producing seafood in Vietnam is higher than those of competitors, for example, shrimp production in India and Indonesia costs 2.5 USD per kilo while Vietnam‟s cost stays from 3.5 USD to four USD per kilo Meanwhile, Thailand has used shrimp feed technology to combat shrimps' stress, raising the colors of shrimp to 26, while Vietnam has only reached 20 to 24 colors Although, price is raised to offset rising costs, this approach has become inappropriate Government needs to co-ordinate with the relevant Ministries to issue synchronous programs and solutions in order to reduce production costs, such as advanced farming models and transfer of technology towards the production of raw materials to achieve sustainable seafood, low cost and no antibiotic The government and MARD have specific programs to raise awareness about clean seafood (no antibiotics) for farmers, processing enterprises, for non-antibiotic raw materials Fourthly, the Government should enact policies and regulations on using chemicals as well as technical standards in producing and processing seafood as well as manual guide for harvesting and protection of aquatic resources This is a good way to reduce the number of rejected consignment of export seafood and keep seafood export value of Vietnam high as well as remaining quality and image of Vietnam seafood in TPP region in particular and worldwide in general Due to dependence on imported material, Government should issue standardized quarantine regulations on imported seafood materials for processing and producing export seafood Concurrently, there should be a mechanism for assessing importing enterprises in order to consider the priority of quarantine exemption for each raw material that the importing enterprises have the same origin and the same supplier based on inspection results and history of previous shipments The Government should direct relevant ministries to promulgate policies and specific strategies for aquatic seed productions.This will reduce the risks of unqualified materials leading to reduce quality of export seafood 93 Fifthly, the Government should provide technical training and technology transfer programs and financial supports for the fisheries sector in general and seafood exporters and producers in particular Government should support on technology for offshore fishing and post-harvest preservation, reduction of toll stations and invest modern and up-to-date harbors in order to boost production and export Given timely supports from the Government, enterprises will manage to quickly catch up and further integrate into the TPP agreement and keep up with the increasingly high demands and requirements from the seafood importing markets Meeting the requirements of TPP means that it can easier to meets the requirement of other countries because Japan and the US are two of the most “picky” markets Sixthly, Vietnam should introduce proper legislation and develop modern, appropriate TBT and SPS standards in order to restrict the massive intrusion of fishery products from other TPP member countries By that, the domestic fishery sector will be protected against the pressure from the economic integration, minimizing adverse impacts (bankruptcy and dismantling) on enterprises This will directly affect the exportation of Vietnam seafood products Technical barriers should be appropriate and modern to minimize seafood imports from other TPP member countries; otherwise, the local fisheries sector will fall into "crisis" and "collapse" due to the pressure of the integration into TPP Seventhly, regarding the market development and trade promotion, the Government should continue effective trade promotion activities to consolidate and develop the traditional markets, major markets (Japan, the US and EU) and expand the markets in Asia such as China, and South Korea because it is predicted that Asia will be the most promised market for seafood in the future Trade promotion should also be enhanced for fishery products in the key markets (through exhibitions, fairs, propaganda, advertisements ) Fishery enterprises, managers and producers should be improved in terms of the capacity to exchange and access market information and trade Branding and quality standards should be developed for a number of key aquatic products for export, meeting the requirements on quality, design and product specifications of seafood importing countries 94 Finally, the US, is one of the largest import seafood market of Vietnam in the world, which plays an important role in TPP; however, the newly elected President who will take the office from 20 January 2017 has strongly objected to TPP Vietnam has to consider the situation when TPP has no support from the US or TPP no longer exists Vietnamese Government need to take necessary measures to enhance seafood export which is the same as the initial plan when Vietnam‟s TPP negotiations come to conclusion Vietnam needs to find a new legal framework with the US in trade relations plus solutions to boost seafood export efficiently to the US - one of the major seafood import market of Vietnam 3.2.2 Measures of enterprises Firstly, whether the US stays in TPP or there is no more TPP, technical measures (SPS, TBT) need to be concerned Enterprises need to improve quality and sanitation of their seafood for exporting for higher competitiveness and successful market expansion as well as higher export value gained Vietnam‟s seafood enterprises should exercise the branding by following commitments on labeling, origin tracing and food safety to promote the production of high quality Secondly, enterprises should actively minimise reliance on raw materials from foreign suppliers, improved productivity and quality as well as reduced prices equal to the average prices of new TPP member countries will help to take advantage of opportunities in the TPP agreement Thirdly, enterprises should determine their export strategies, key market segments and key fishery exports Special attention should be paid to maintain the two traditional markets of Vietnam seafood exports, the US and Japan Beyond, seafood exports should be promoted in the rest nine TPP member countries for the best use of TPP incentives As predicted, markets in Asia promise a better consumption of seafood; therefore, enterprises should have plan to enhance and expand their market share in Asia while still remain relationship with “old partners” Seafood producers and exporters should expand the potential markets such as China, South Korea and the EU to increase the export turnover and reduce heavy dependence on the 95 traditional markets This helps to diversify their export markets and widen the market share of Vietnam seafood exports Fourthly, enterprises need to pay attention to input materials or added value of export seafood in order to comply with the rules of origin in order to enjoy duty-free when exporting to TPP members Finally, enterprises are required to improve their productivity, quality and performance in order to decrease seafood export prices This will better the competitive ability of Vietnam seafood export in all markets because the Vietnam seafood‟s prices remain relatively higher than other opponents‟ Vietnamese enterprises still have chance to promote their export by approaching other FTAs that Vietnam has been in process of negotiations Increasing seafood quality and reduce price is the best way to keep a firm position in both domestic and international markets – avoiding hard pressure from accessing Vietnam seafood market of foreign companies and investors This is also the development trend that Vietnam seafood export enterprises should follow The value of export seafood should be increased by prices and quality instead of quantity of catched and farmed seafood 96 CONCLUSION Vietnam may be the biggest winner from the Pacific trade deal and GDP may gain 11% in 10 years, exports may jump 28% The country‟s seafood industry will benefit from the elimination of import taxes on shrimp, squid and tuna However, the agreement still needs to be passed by the Governments of the 12 nations while the TPP without the US is true The failure of TPP would undercut those in Vietnam advocating closer ties to the U.S and dent America‟s influence in the region Vietnam, which successfully negotiated trade deals with the European Union and South Korea earlier this year, is aggressively seeking economic partners to balance its relationship with China The TPP without the US would leave Vietnam more economically isolated and dependent on China We not deny the great benefits that the TPP may bring to the economy in general and seafood exports of Vietnam in particular Impact relating to tax elimination of TPP to export activities of Vietnam's seafood exists but it will not change significantly However, the impacts will be substantial contribution This is an opportunity for Vietnam to reform and restructure the fisheries sector and take advantage of foreign capital and investment as well as support advanced technology transfer Vietnam still expects to join a new century identifiable agreement like TPP However, whether joining TPP or not, Vietnam seafood exporters should create and maintain independent position in the international market Vietnam must identify the staples to enhance competitive advantage and besides the traditional markets, to expand and seek new markets It also needs the efforts of enterprises, in particular 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VASEP Vietnam Association of Seafood Exports and Producers VND Vietnamese Dong INTRODUCTION Rationale of the study The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a new-generation free trade agreement and. .. for Vietnam exploit the resources in the sea, on the islands and continental shelf effectively This is the basis to affirm our sovereignty to the sea and the continental shelf around the islands