Major master of international trade policy and law

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING FOREIGN TRADE UNIVERSITY DISSERTATION IMPACT OF LOW OIL PRICE ON VIETNAM’S STATE BUDGET Major: Master of International Trade Policy and Law Full name: Nguyen Thi Mai Anh Ha Noi-2016 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING FOREIGN TRADE UNIVERSITY DISSERTATION IMPACT OF LOW OIL PRICE ON VIETNAM’S STATE BUDGET Major: Master of International Trade Policy and Law Full Name: Nguyen Thi Mai Anh Supervisor: Assoc Prof Dr Hoang Xuan Binh Ha Noi- 2016 i REASSURANCE I declare that this is my own research The data and results outlined in the dissertation are honest and have never been published in any other projects I hereby declare that all the help for the realization of this thesis was to thank and information cited in the thesis was to specify the source ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS At first, I would like to express our profound gratitude to Assoc Prof Dr Hoang Xuan Binh who had given me not only valuable instruction and motivation but also great encouragements and tremendous supports with his all enthusiasm during the time I had prepared this study research Furthermore, I also want to dispatch a special thanks to program of Master of International Trade Policies and Laws in general and to teachers in the Faculty of Graduate Studies for giving me opportunity to study on such an interesting and meaningful learning program Finally, I am obliged to quite a few scholars whose papers and books I have referred to It is from their achievements that we draw rich thoughts for this study research iii TABLE OF CONTENT REASSURANCE i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ii TABLE OF CONTENT iii LIST OF ABBREVIATION vi LIST OF TABLES vii LIST OF FIGURES viii CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 The necessity of the research 1.2 The objective of the study research 1.3 The scope and subject of research 1.4 Research Methods 1.5 The scientific and practical meanings 1.6 The study’s content CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 2.1.1 Current Situation Overview of the government’s budget and Vietnam current situation 2.1.1.1 Definition 2.1.1.2 Factors affecting government budget 2.1.1.2.1 Government revenue 2.1.1.2.2 Factors affecting revenues budget and classification revenues budget 2.1.1.2.3 Government Expenses 11 2.1.1.3 Current situation of Vietnam’s government budget 12 iv 2.1.1.4 State budget deficit 18 2.1.2 Overview of oil prices 22 2.1.2.1 Definition 22 2.1.2.2 Impact of oil prices fluctuation on the economy 22 2.1.2.3 Factor affecting oil price 25 2.1.2.4 Current situation of oil market in the world 28 2.2 Previous related Research 32 CHAPTER 3: EMPIRICAL STUDY 35 3.1 Relationship between oil prices shock and the government’s budget 35 3.1.1 Model specification and data collection 35 3.1.2 Economic theory review 35 3.1.3 Expectations 40 3.1.4 Data Collection 40 CHAPTER 4: ANALYSIS RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 42 Analysis data result 42 4.1.1 Unit Root and Stationary Tests 42 4.1.2 Original regression model 42 4.1.3 Eviews results 42 4.1.2.1 Test of significance 44 4.1.2.2 Testing of dropping variables 44 4.1.2.3 Parameters interpretation 47 4.1.2.4 Errors in the model 48 4.1.4 Interpretation of model 52 Limitations 53 CHAPTER 5: SOLUTIONS AND CONCLUSION 55 v 5.1 Solutions 55 5.1.1 Orient the government budget revenue in the near future 55 5.1.2 Develop refineries to increase value 55 5.1.3 Prevent loss and increase government’s revenue 56 5.1.4 Control the state’s budget deficit 57 5.1.5 The financial measures to control the state budget deficit 59 5.1.5.1 Shift of the state budget of revenues towards sustainability 59 5.1.5.2 Improving decentralized budget 60 5.1.6 Create other tools to offset state budget deficit 61 5.1.6.1 Domestic borrowings 61 5.1.6.2 Foreign Borrowing 62 5.1.7 Reform of public administration and improve management capacity 65 5.1.8 Develop financial management systems and accounting of public finances systems 66 5.1.9 Innovate fund management mechanism, financial institutions 67 5.1.10 Determine the state budget deficit amid after crisis 68 5.2 Conclusion 69 REFERENCES 71 APPENDIX 76 vi LIST OF ABBREVIATION CPI Consumer Price Index GDP Gross Domestic Product EIA Energy Information Administration ERP Enterprise Resources Planning FDI Foreign Direct Investment ICOR Incremental Capital Output Ratio IMF International Monetary Fund ODA Official Development Assistance OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries SOE State-Owned Enterprise TABMIS Treasury and Budget Management Information System VIF Variance Inflation Factors WTI West Texas Intermediate WTO World Trade Organization vii LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Government budget spending over the years (billion USD) 14 Table 2: Governments’ budget spending for development investment and recurrent spending 15 Table 3: Expenditure decentralization of the central budget and local budget 17 Table 4: Oil revenue in Total Government Revenue (%) 24 Table 5: Description data 41 viii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Budget revenue from 2005 to 2014 13 Figure 2: Proportion of GDP in Government’s Budget 13 Figure 3: Government’s revenue from domestic 14 Figure 4: Expenditure decentralization of the central budget and local budget 16 Figure 5: Brief State budget over years 19 Figure 6: Percentage of Deficit/ GDP 20 Figure 7: World crude oil consumption (Thousand barrels per day) 28 Figure 8: World oil price data in 1989-2015 30 Figure 9: Export and import crude oil quantity in Vietnam from 2010-2015 32 Figure 10: Vietnam’s government Balance Budget (billion USD) 36 Figure 11: Vietnam’s oil imports data 37 Figure 12: Vietnam’s Real GDP and government balance budget movement from 1989 to 2014 38 Figure 13: Annual average value of world oil price from 1989 to 2014 39 Figure 14: List of Vietnam refineries and their capacity 56 62 exchanges, but the object essential exchanged is organizations, dealing with large amount Individuals have not accessed so they not want to hold bonds; beside the derivatives market derived from bonds should be developed This is a part of risk mitigation and management costs of medium and long-term debt Government flexibility in borrowing to make up deficit, reduce the cost of service debt Efficiency improved in the co-ordination between fiscal policy and monetary policy in financing the government budget deficit, compliance mechanisms and the relationship between the debtors and the creditors in accordance with market’s rules (iii) Adhering to the principle, the advances from the central bank offsetting temporary imbalances of the government budget have to be repaid in year So, the central bank can conduct monetary policy easier 5.1.6.2 Foreign Borrowing When domestic debt not meet the budget need, it is very important to offset the budget deficit for capital investment and economic growth Foreign debt of the Government has three categories: borrowing from official development assistance (ODA), lending by financial institutions, the International Monetary (World Bank, Stage Asia Bank, International monetary Fund) and loans by issuing government bonds abroad Foreign debt of the government must focus on major sources and favorable interest rates This loan in Vietnam occupies an important position in the source offset the budget deficit Since 1993, ratio of the State debt increase because the State has taken the appropriate steps to handle debts, contribute to the normalization of relations with creditors, and Vietnam's potential economic development has been convincing many funds borrowing at various institutions around the world in recent years and making the capital increase The State has invested in terms of infrastructure and key economic sectors exert economic development in a sustainable manner However, because this is a loan, so it is necessary to take into account interest payments and repayment of principal upon maturity Whether loans are conducted in the any form (preferential loans or issuance of government bonds abroad) should 63 take into account efficiency of capital investments On the other hand, in terms of a number of foreign currencies tend to rise, the state must carefully calculate the loan, in order to prevent risks due to fluctuations in exchange rates, debt burden For the issuance of government bonds abroad, Vietnam facilitates access to international capital markets, and in the future will be directly involved in the capital market, stock market and other countries in world However, the State should consider carefully calculate the interest, ability and effectiveness of the use of loans Regarding ODA loans should accelerate the disbursement on the basis of the promotion of receiving procedures and implementation of the project; create compatibility between the loan agreement signed with the preparation of resources required to counterpart funds; solving problems about clearance ground and resettlement; capacity management, inspection and evaluation The government bonds issued to the international bond markets is fresh and the government has achieved certain success However, caution is needed to research and prepare the necessary elements for the bond issued plan in order to achieve high efficiency The basic elements should be particularly interested in the bond issued plan includes: Improved national credit rating: Credit rating is assessed financial capabilities as well as ability to repay principal and interest of the government release Credit rating is not only necessary for the issuance of government bonds to international financial markets but also affect the performance of commercial loans The developed countries with high credit rating create favorable conditions for commercial loans As for developing countries enjoying preferential ODA loans so making a low credit rating can make it difficult for commercial loans, if it’s higher, commercial loans will advantage whereas it will diminish the incentives of the ODA loan The national credit rating is valued by companies rent by the Government credit term At the same time, the Government should continue promote to improve credit ratings measure, such as: 64 (i) Executive fiscal policy, limiting deficits, curb and control inflation in a reasonable limit under double digits (ii) Continuing innovate in management mechanism in accordance with market-oriented economy, especially interest rate policy and exchange rate (iii) Speed up the process of restructuring state-owned enterprises and the owned commercial bank system (iv) Develop national currency reserves Selection underwriting partners: To enhance the credit rating of the issuing subject in the process of access to capital, it is necessary to have a guarantor Normally, there may be a financial conglomerate or an investment banker respected, experienced in international capital markets, and has helped some countries in the region issued The selection will pass competitive bidding to ensure the most beneficial for the government release So the international financial institutions or the huge banks will be organized in which we choose to the underwriting Analysis of financial market developments internationally: One of the important factors that affect the price of bonds issued is the actual situation of interest rates on the international financial markets at the time of release Typically bond prices are based on US Treasury bonds, which one of the components of the interest rate of the US Treasury bonds is the basic interest rate by the US Federal Reserve Board announced In addition, the government released also search about the scale, prices of newly issued bonds, as well as estimated size of the next issue to be able to accurately assess the supply of bonds on the market Preparation of documents related to the issuance of bonds: Requirements of common document types all tied to the release form In the case of widely released to the public, including private investors, the requirements 65 for registration procedures, as well as listing relevant documents are very strict, mandatory offer It can be concluded that the issuance of government bonds to the market of international capital is a capital mobilization channel viable economies of developing countries All problems that still exists both sides, abundant capital of international capital markets satisfy investment requirement of socio-economic development, but also the source of this capital without the management measures will cause the reverse effect, negatively affecting the national financial security So, to access and exploit this capital, the state should be cautious, research and analyze the situation of the international financial markets, requirement and absorption capacity of the economy, as well as the necessary term provisions to ensure the issuance of government bonds to the international bond market success 5.1.7 Reform of public administration and improve management capacity Administrative reform in Vietnam was carried out for many years Start is the initial reform of administrative procedures in settling the works of individuals and organizations, then, further reform of state administration with the three contents are: reform administrative institutional; reform the state bureaucracy; build staff and public service Today the administrative reform has moved to a new step with four content: reform administrative institutional; reform the state bureaucracy; build staff and public service; reform public finance Administrative reform in Vietnam has been implementing contributed to reforms public administration are: (i) Regarding administrative institution has amended and enacted the new law and the bylaws about the organization of the state apparatus Amending and supplementing some articles of the Ordinance on cadres and civil servants; issuing decrees to concretizing Ordinance The important is the text of the organizational apparatus of the state regulated quite specific authorities and responsibilities of the 66 state, steps by steps shown the management in hierarchy between central and local level; (ii) Regarding the administrative apparatus has tapered management hubs, the number of state authorities has decreased significantly, administrative procedures be reformed in the direction of "one-stop", model-form documents the papers, public administrative procedures Reforming administrative procedures have contributed to limiting the harassment and corruption of public officials in settling administrative affairs of citizens Another problem in the administrative reform in Vietnam is the decentralization of state management In essence, the shift of jobs and resources from the central government holding reach local governments at all levels in the long term, stabilized with laws, sub-laws, in order to expand democracy and promote creative activeness of local authorities In decentralization of State administrative apparatus will focus on policy development and ensure the consistency of the institutions, solve major problems of the country Then, push back corruption, reduce monopoly, reduce discretion in the management of the public sector, accountability and responsibility for the consequences Practice strict law on thrift practice and anticorruption laws contributing to improve efficiency in the management and using of the government budget 5.1.8 Develop financial management systems and accounting of public finances systems The deployment of construction project of Treasury and Budget Management Information System (TABMIS) was researched and deployed since 2008 By 2010, the system has been implemented popular and bring positive results Construction Project of Treasury and Budget Management Information System (TABMIS) of Vietnamese estimated highest among projects by the World Bank (WB) deployed in Southeast Asia It works with target: 67 (i) The financial agency could directly exploit fiscal reports from the system, instead of having to rely on the state treasury offices; (ii) Management of projects at all levels TABMIS will support the allocation of budget estimates, updated budget estimates, disbursement of budget reserves and estimate budget for next year TABMIS is a management information system integration, designed in the direction of the reference model of the World Bank Treasury and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), moved to accrual accounting, but inherit and compliance with the specific conditions of Vietnam, gave the management of Vietnam budget approaching standards and international practices, improved integration capabilities of public finances The process TABMIS require a great reform of management mechanisms and processes of collection and Payment State budget and accounting system This task is not simple because the budget system of Vietnam is complicated, covering up all four levels of government (central, provincial, district and commune) Perhaps this is the only TABMIS project in the world covering the levels In the next years, TABMIS connected to the Ministry of Planning and Investment, Ministries uses the budget, financial agencies at all levels (central and local), and the use of budget units promote effectively all of an integrated management system ERP (enterprise resources Planning) with a closed budget process, automated, centralized information management, providing full, comprehensive, timely and clear report 5.1.9 Innovate fund management mechanism, financial institutions Consistent with the transition of the economy of Vietnam, side by side with the government budget, the existence of the funds, the financial institutions of the State not operate for profit This fact has a direct pressure on the government budget balance in two respects: (i) government budget has to supplement and allowance for funds and these institutions; (ii) Contingent liabilities reserve for the government 68 budget So in the future, along with the development of the economy - society and the degree of international integration, operation of funds, the financial institutions of the State budget should be reformed in the direction of reducing quantity and marketization their activity on the basis of established mechanisms and effective This solution will help to support positive the balance of government budget on the following aspects: (i) Avoid being a situation that disguises government budget funds into other management mechanism looser, causing losses; (ii) Reduce the risk arising reserve liabilities for the government budget’s expenditure, ensuring that balance the government budget more sustainable and consistent with WTO commitments that Vietnam signed with the WTO members 5.1.10 Determine the state budget deficit amid after crisis In fiscal 2016, Congress also approved all resolutions with total revenues of the State budget is 1,014,500 billion dong, including 4,700 billion in revenue in 2015 to transfer in 2016, so the total revenue of the State budget is 1,019,200 billion dong Total balance expenditure of the state budget is 1,273,200 billion; State budget deficit is 254,000 billion Government needs to control revenues, expenditures and deficit budget in 2016 does not exceed 4.95% GDP, according to the planning data of Ministry of finance, based on increased state budget revenue Including: increased oil revenues, and take advantage of additional revenue from import-export operations; increase revenues transferred Earlier, the development plans of the Government such as the issuance of government bonds total 220 trillion dong in 2016 to mobilize capital for government And, one of the proposed implementation of the budget estimates in 2016 is been raised by committee, that is: be wary of investment projects require a large budget The government proposed limiting start new projects to avoid the risk of not arranges funds, especially in terms of raising capital on the financial domestically 69 and internationally markets have very high cost and potential risks, as well as adverse effects on the economy Finance Committee - Budget propose, in the coming years the goal of reducing the state budget deficit must be a top priority in order to ensure national financial situation strength in the medium and long term, help control inflation and ensuring macroeconomic stability So, should review the policy to ensure priority order and reduce the budget deficit in a reasonable manner The majority opinion of the Commission propose in the coming years implement the State budget deficit of 4.95% GDP decided by the National Assembly, taken efficiency loans as top objective in managing, operating budget expenditures 5.2 Conclusion Overall, the empirical study in this thesis employed Least Square methodology to examine the effect of oil price on the Vietnam’s government budget over the period 1989 to 2014 This is attributable to the evaluation price of oil in the government budget through the use of oil revenues and money This study concluded that a decrease in oil revenue significantly affected the budget variables with the assumption that oil revenue is only affected by oil prices (keep constant the oil quantity) In reality, the budget deficit is not a new phenomenon but common in most countries around the world not only for to the developing poor countries but also the industrialized developed countries However, each country's deficit situation is different It is the reason for inflation, trade deficit, and other adverse effects on the economy, so this is a profound concern of every nation Regarding to theory, the budget deficit is not entirely negative According to historical experiences, if deficit data stayed at certain extent (less than 5% per year), it also can stimulate production Consequently, the developed countries also should try to narrow the rage of budget deficit, rather than eliminating it completely 70 There are many financial measures such as issuing money, borrowing from domestic or foreign, reducing expenditures, etc But they all contain specific disadvantages which can cause adverse effects on the economy To finance the budget deficit effectively, it is necessary to combine synchronously many measures and the macro management policies is to limit and neutralize the negative sides, encourage the positive sides to prevent bad impacts on the macroeconomic objectives Moreover, to increase revenues for the state's budget, it is essential to boost economic growth and depending on the characteristics of each country in order that country will provide specific and appropriate policies The findings from the model demonstrate the positive relationship between oil revenue and government budget balance However, oil revenue can be considered as an unstable variable in the macroeconomic As the result, applying to Vietnam situation, the proportion of oil revenue in government revenue need to be reduced and gradually replaced by other more stable sources such as revenue from domestic businesses activities So that, Vietnam can achieve a sustainable growth rate and deflate the volume of public debt In general, like many other countries especially developing countries in the world, Vietnam has recently also faced with the deficit budget problem As the results of this research, it would provide further measures to quantify the relationship between oil price and the government budget by both qualitative and quantitative methodology Through all achievement of this thesis, it is hoped that this thesis would helpfully contribute a small part for budget policy makers to control the budget deficit in a reasonable level to ensure a sustainable growth for the whole economy 71 REFERENCES Abas, S.A., Moriyama, K., Naseer, A (2010), Fiscal adjustment in Sudan The International Monetary Fund Available from: accessed on 2014 Nov 26 Akin, I., Babajidie, F 2011, Impact of oil price shocks on selected macroeconomic varaibles in Nigeria Energy Policy, 39, 603-612 Almulali, U., Che Sab, C.N 2013, Exploring the impact of oil revenues on 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