Can We Crop Carbon? A case study in North-South climate mitigation Mike Robbins A thesis submitted to the School of Development Studies, University of East Anglia, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy October 2007 © This copy of the thesis has been supplied on condition that anyone who consults it is understood to recognise that its copyright rests with the author and that no quotation from the thesis, nor any information derived therefrom, may be published without the author's prior, written consent ABSTRACT Scientific evidence suggests that the climate is changing through anthropogenic emission of carbon dioxide and other gases To mitigate this, a growing number of mechanisms aim to provide a market for the trading of emissions reductions, and international development assistance also often includes mitigation as an objective This thesis examines the hypothesis that, through such initiatives, agriculture in the developing world could increase the terrestrial carbon sink, and that farmers could derive benefit from the carbon’s value In examining this hypothesis, it also seeks to illuminate North-South aspects of international climate negotiations The on-farm carbon pools in the developing world have so far been excluded from the Kyoto mechanisms But the substantial potential of agriculture to act as both carbon source and sink means that it should be considered for inclusion after the end of the current Kyoto reporting period in 2012 However, there will be difficult marketing and methodological challenges This thesis considers how these can be overcome Unilateral project funding can address marketing issues, while new technologies can assist in monitoring and verification A pragmatic approach is required to additionality, while baselines might be modelled and then verified with control plots during implementation Finally, a field study in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest sought to match “carbon-friendly” interventions to farmers’ own priorities and constraints, so that any sinks created would be maintained by them after any project Some lessons can be drawn for the international climate regime in general Permanence of sinks ultimately demands that countries have an incentive to maintain their carbon stocks, and this should be done through tradeable emissions quotas for every country Also, refinement of the necessary methodologies will require specific biophysical research, suggesting that climate change may call for more traditional and specialized science Table of Contents List of figures List of tables List of boxes Acknowledgements A note on measurements Checmical formulae used List of acronyms 6 8 Introduction 11 Climate change and agriculture 2.1 Anthropogenic climate change 2.1.2 What climate change will 2.1.3 The sceptics 2.1.4 The earth breathes out 2.2 Agriculture and climate change 2.2.1 SOM and its dynamic nature 2.2.2 Soil C: how much, where, and how much can be sequestered? 2.2.3 How carbon can be sequestered in agriculture 2.3 Chapter summary 16 16 18 22 26 28 29 32 40 44 Do we know what we know? 3.1 The postmodern attack on science 3.2 Science, policy and political ecology 3.2.1 Political ecology: Power and perception 3.3 The challenge of induction 3.4 Chapter summary 45 46 49 51 52 54 Three carbon questions 4.1 The new Physiocrats 4.1.1 Costing carbon: Shadow pricing? 4.1.2 Costing carbon: Using the market 4.2 A price for everything? 4.3 Is there a market? 4.3.1 What now for the climate regime? 4.3.2 Flexible instruments, fungible carbon 4.4 Chapter summary 56 57 60 61 62 65 71 72 83 Carbon, money and agriculture 5.1 Who would invest? 5.2 Additionality and baselines 5.3 Leakage 5.4 Permanence 5.5 Monitoring and verification 5.5.1 From sampling to modelling 5.5.3 Alternative sampling methods for ground truthing 5.5.4 Organizational aspects of monitoring 85 86 90 93 95 99 101 105 108 5.7 Chapter summary 110 A case study I: The Atlantic Forest biome 6.1 The Atlantic Forest 6.1.1 The decision to despoil, 1500-1823 6.1.2 Coffee 6.1.3 After coffee, cattle 6.2 Potential for carbon sequestration in the biome 6.3 Case study locations: Noroeste Fluminense and Zona da Mata 6.3.1 Noroeste Fluminense 6.3.2 Minas Gerais: The Zona da Mata 6.4 A field survey 6.4.1 A methodology for assessing options 6.4.2 The interviews 6.5 Chapter summary A case study II: Results 7.1 The sample and farming system 7.2 The sample in context and S.E Brazil 7.2.1 Status of farmers 7.2.2 Farm size 7.3 Farmers’ responses 7.3.1 Constraints faced by farmers 7.3.2 Constraints faced and implications for carbon sinks 7.4 Rating the practices 7.4.1 Pasture improvement 7.4.2 Inorganic fertilizer 7.4.3 Organic agriculture, green manure and pigeonpea 7.4.4 Leguminous tree species 7.4.5 Conservation tillage and rotations 7.4.6 Managing the slope: Contour planting and vegetative strips 7.4.7 Fruit trees 7.5 Discussion 7.5.1 Agricultural ideologies: A barrier to adoption? 7.5.2 Internalizing environmental costs: Who should it? 7.6 Chapter summary Conclusions 8.1 Can sinks in developing-country agriculture mitigate emissions? 8.2 What has been learned about climate-change mitigation? References Annex 1: 112 113 116 118 119 120 127 127 130 133 138 144 146 148 148 153 153 156 159 160 168 169 169 176 181 195 199 213 224 228 231 238 247 248 248 257 261 Questionnaire used for farmer interviews 280 List of figures Figure 2.1 Figure 2.2 Figure 4.1 Figure 4.2 Figure 5.1 Figure 6.1 Figure 7.1 Figure 7.2 Figure 7.3 Figure 7.4 Figure 7.5 Figure 7.6 Figure 7.7 Figure 7.8 Figure 7.9 Figure 7.10 Figure 7.11 Figure 7.12 Figure 7.13 Figure 7.14 Figure 7.15 Figure 7.16 Figure 7.17 Figure 7.18 Figure 7.19 Figure 7.20 Figure 7.21 Figure 7.22 Figure 7.23 Figure 7.24 Figure 7.25 Figure 7.26 Figure 7.27 Figure 7.28 Figure 7.29 Figure 7.30 Figure 7.31 Global terrestrial carbon stocks Global net primary productivity (NPP) Climate-change negations: A timeline Growth in allowance- and project-based transactions, 2004-2006 Funding and benefit flows from environmental services projects in agriculture Destruction of the Atlantic Forest, 1500-1990 Locations of farmer interviews Status of sample compared with family farms in South-East Brazil and Brazil Status of sample compared with family farms in South-East Brazil and region/microregion Farm size, sample compared with South-East Brazil Farm size, samples for Noroeste Fluminense (Rio de Janeiro) and Zona da Mata (Minas Gerais) compared with States Farm size, samples compared with Noroeste Fluminense and Ubá Farmers’ rating of main constraints to farm production Persons employed in agriculture in Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro States, 1970-1996 Pasture as a percentage of agricultural area at sample, local and State levels Farmers’ views on pasture improvement by ploughing/seeding with Brachiaria spp Farmers’ ratings of constraints to pasture improvement by ploughing/seeding with Brachiaria spp Farmers’ views on inorganic fertilizer Farmers’ ratings of constraints to using inorganic fertilizer Farmers’ views on organic agriculture Farmers’ ratings of constraints to using organic agriculture Farmers’ ratings of constraints to using organic agriculture, Noroeste Fluminense and Zona da Mata Farmers’ views on green manure Farmers’ ratings of constraints to using green manure Farmers’ views on pigeonpea Farmers’ ratings of constraints to using pigeonpea Farmers’ views on leguminous trees Farmers’ ratings of constraints to using leguminous trees Farmers’ views on conservation tillage (CT) Farmers’ ratings of constraints to conservation tillage (CT) Farmers’ views on sustainable rotations Farmers’ ratings of constraints to sustainable rotations Farmers’ ratings of sustainable rotations, Noroeste Fluminense and Zona da Mata Farmers’ ratings of constraints to using sustainable rotations, Noroeste Fluminense and Zona da Mata Farmers’ views on contour planting Farmers’ ratings of constraints to using contour planting Farmers’ ratings of constraints to using contour 33 34 69 79 91 115 149 154 156 157 158 159 161 164 170 173 175 177 180 185 186 188 189 190 191 193 197 198 204 208 210 210 212 213 216 217 Figure 7.32 Figure 7.33 Figure 7.34 Figure 7.35 Figure 7.36 Figure 7.37 Figure 7.38 Figure 7.39 Figure 7.40 planting, Noroeste Fluminense and Zona da Mata Farmers’ views on vegetative strips Farmers’ ratings of constraints to using vegetative strips Farmers’ ratings of constraints to using vegetative strips, Noroeste Fluminense and Zona da Mata Farmers’ views on fruit trees Farmers’ ratings of constraints to growing fruit trees Farmers’ ratings of constraints to growing fruit trees, Noroeste Fluminense and Zona da Mata Farmers’ willingness to adopt (Would like to use/use more) Mean ratings to constraints, all practices Mean ratings to constraints, all practices, disaggregated 219 221 221 223 225 227 227 231 239 240 List of tables Table 2.1 Table 2.2 Table 2.3 Table 2.4 Table 6.1 Table 6.2 Table 6.3 Table 6.4 Table 6.5 Table 6.6 Table 7.1 Table 7.2 Potential for agricultural carbon sequestration in the developing world, 2003-2013 Carbon sequestration potential (tC ha/yr) in four agricultural systems under different levels of management Agriculture’s contribution to global greenhouse-gas emissions C sequestration potential of strategies for arable land Species, threatened species and endemism in Brazil’s Atlantic Forest Land-use change and soil carbon stocks in the Atlantic Forest biome under a realistic land-use change scenario Key characteristics of fieldwork locations Farmers’ reasons for non-adoption of soil conservation technologies Questionnaire for farmers’ ratings of carbon-friendly practices Questionnaire for farmers’ ratings of constraints to adoption of carbon-friendly practices State- and GEF-funded components for rehabilitation of degraded land, Rio Rural project Growth and decline in economically active rural population by category, Brazil, 1981-1999 36 36 38 41 114 121 132 135 139 142 232 241 List of boxes Box Box Box Box Box Box Box A flexible farmer A farmer questions fertilizer Important to invest in soil A place to try the trees? Small-farm sustainability Coping with slopes Going for guava 174 179 182 198 205 220 228 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Many people have assisted or influenced production of this thesis, the more so because its origins go back many years It would be impossible to thank them all properly, but I will try I must emphasize that they are not responsible for its content and would not necessarily endorse its conclusions My supervisors, John McDonagh and Kate Brown, have been endlessly supportive, have waded through mountains of chapter drafts without complaint and have made many useful suggestions I have been fortunate in that I have supervisors who between them cover a range of biophysical and social science, and hope that this has helped me to view climate change and agriculture from multiple perspectives Other members of the faculty of the School of Development Studies at UEA have also provided inspiration and support; in particular, Piers Blaikie and Michael Stocking have encouraged me to think about soil erosion, while Jock Cameron, Richard Palmer-Jones and Ken Cole have encouraged me to think Bruce Lankford, currently Head of School, has been a very positive influence Shawn McGuire gave very useful advice on biodiversity when I was working on a discussion paper for GEF in 2004 I have also had much encouragement and support, practical and otherwise, from the faculty staff, especially Liz Gibson, Steph Simpson and Jessica Thimbleby Outside UEA, the roots of this thesis lie in a conversation about agriculture and climate change with John Ryan, soil scientist at ICARDA in Syria, in the 1990s And its approach owes much to Michael Zoebisch, whose work and views on farmers and their environment have very strongly influenced mine His encouragement when I started to think about these issues was invaluable Many other staff at ICARDA also helped to form the way I think, as did those with whom I worked in the Ministry of Renewable Natural Resources in Bhutan I also learned much from my colleagues at FAO in 2001-2002; in particular, I would like to thank Jose Benites and Theodor Friedrich for discussions on reduced tillage and its implications Warm thanks must go to a number of people Brazil, in particular Bob Boddey and Segundo Urquiaga; there is no question of my work there having been possible without them Thanks too to Phil and Merci Chalk for encouragement and hospitality Ricardo and Teresa Peixoto provided invaluable advice and support Eli de Jesus and Leila M Valle played a key part in the field survey Ednaldo da Silva Aráujo provided crucial advice and introductions on the first field trip Others whose time and/or encouragement was helpful include (in no particular order) Claudia Jantalia, Antonio da Silva Viana, Gilmar Martins de Souza, Samuel de Colares, Helga Restum Hissa, Nelson Teixeira Alves Filho, Peter May, Samuel de Colares, João Batista Duarte Alvarez Viero, Marc Antonio Lopes, Jorge Luis Martin Soares, Marcos Gonỗalves e Gonỗalves and Gilberto da Costa Reis None of them are in any way responsible for anything I have written about Brazil I would also like to thank those who gave me time and advice on two trips to WashinPgon DC, in 2003 and 2005 On both trips, I had long and informative talks with Ian Noble and I am grateful for his time Others with whom discussions were helpful include Jonathan Pershing, Per Ryden and Aáron Zazueta I am also grateful to all those who attended the seminar in March 2005 to review the GEF-STAP discussion paper that I prepared with Tim Williams in the winter of 2004-2005, especially Chris Reij and Jeremy Sandford Habiba Gitay, Guadalupe Duron, and Tim himself gave great support at that event However, especially warm thanks are due to Scott Christensen and Andrea Pape-Christensen for their hospitality and kindness on both those trips Last but not least, one’s friends are the environment in which a thesis is written Sylvie Koestlé, Marta Einarsdóttir, Patricia Almaguer-Kalixto, Neil Monk, Elaine Sherriffs, Emily Boyd, Dan Coppard and Anna Allen have been especially supportive at various times I would also like to warmly acknowledge the company and encouragement of, among others, Henry Alhassan, Johanna Wolf, Natasha Grist, Marisa Goulden, Jonathan Cate, Liz Westaway, Laurence Mathieu, Tatiana Burmensky Suzanty Sitorus, Samy Hotimsky, Esteve Corbera Elizalde, Alejandra Trejo Nieto, Sirkku Juhola, Nadine Renaudeau d’Arc, Marie Badjeck, Rocio Suarez, Sue Harris, Johnny Marsh, Alex Grimmer, Denis Hellebrandt da Silva, Baruch Ramirez-Rodriguez, Piet van der Poel, Oscar-Salvador Alvarez-Macotela, Hemant Ojha, Helen Heaney, Joe Hill, Lawrie Hallett, Matt Livermore, Bertha Cartas, Camy Adelle, Mike Karlin, Suraje Dessai, Dolf te Lintelo, Fabiola Lopez Gomez, Louisa Evans, Belina Garcia-Fajardo, Lan Anh Hoang, Joel Busher, Katharine Vincent, Lorena IbarguenTinley, Andrew Scanlon, Catherine Ball and Barry Ferguson Most are my fellow-students Many are from overseas, especially from Mexico; I would like to thank them for coming to study in my country, and hope that they have never regretted it A note on measurements Because the study of agriculture in relation to climate mitigation is fairly new, there is some confusion regarding units Pg (petagram) C is equivalent to 1015 g – that is, 1,000 million metric tons; also much used for this in the literature is a gigaton (Gt), but to reduce confusion, Pg has been used throughout, even where Gt was used in the original of a cited passage Tons are metric tons in all cases Also used is a Tg, or teragram, of C (1012 g), 1,000,000 tons; and Mg, or million grammes – in effect, a ton Where a ton of soil carbon is mentioned, this indicates a ton of solid matter; once mineralized, this is quivalent to 3.66 tons of carbon dioxide (CO2 ) In this thesis, a ton of carbon is a ton of solid matter, and a ton of CO2 is referred to as CO2e – that is, CO2 equivalent Chemical formulae used C CH4 CO2 CO2e N NO2 Carbon Methane Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Gases expressed as their equivalent to CO2 in radiative forcing potential Nitrogen Nitrogen Dioxide ACRONYMS AI AIJ BBC BNF BP C&C CARB CBD CCX CDF CDM CEIVAP CER CGIAR COP CSE CTIC CV DNA DOE EB EMATER EMBRAPA ER EU ETS EU EUA FACE FAO FFW FDI FEBRAPDP GCM GDP GEF GHG GNP GPG GPS IADB IBGE ICARDA ICSU IFOAM IFPRI INCRA INS IPCC Artificial Insemination Activities Implemented Jointly British Broadcasting Corporation Biological Nitrogen Fixation British Petroleum Contraction and Convergence California Air Resources Board Convention on Biodiversity Chicago Climate Exchange Clean Development Fund Clean Development Mechanism Comitê para a Integracão da Bacia Hidrografíca Rio Paraíba Sul Certified Emissions Reduction Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research Conference of the Parties Centre for Science and the Environment Conservation Tillage Information Center Coefficient of Variation Designated National Authority Designated Operational Entity Executive Board Empresa de Assistência Técnica e Extensão Rural Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária Emissions Reduction European Union Emissions Trading Scheme European Union European Union Allowance Free-Air CO2 Enrichment Food and Agriculture Organization Food-for-Work Foreign Direct Investment Federacão Brasileira de Plantio Direto na Palha General Circulation Model Gross Domestic Product Global Environment Facility Greenhouse Gas Gross National Product Global Public Good Geographic Positioning System Inter-American Development Bank Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas International Council of Scientific Unions International Federation of Organic Agriculture Movements International Food Policy Research Institute Instituto Nacional de Colonizaỗóo e Reforma Agrỏria Inelastic Neutron Scattering Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ISWC JI LDC LIBS LULUCF MRT MST NGO NIRS NPP ODA PES PRONAF RGGI RUSLE SLM SOC SOCRATES SOM SRES SWC TAR T-CER TDR TERI UK ETS UNCED UNEP UNFCCC USFS VER WFP WMO WRI WUE WWF WOCAT Indigenous Soil and Water Conservation in Africa Joint Implementation Least-Developed Countries Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry Mean Residence Time Movimento dos Trabalhadores Rurais Sem Terra Non-Governmental Organization Near Infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy Net Primary Productivity Official Development Assistance Payment for Ecosystem Services Programa Nacional de Fortalecimento da Agricultura Familiar Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation Sustainable Land Management Soil Organic Carbon Soil Organic Carbon Reserves And Transformations in agro-EcoSystems Soil Organic Matter Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Soil and Water Conservation Third Assessment Report Temporary Certified Emissions Reduction Time Domain Reflectometry Tata Energy Research Institute United Kingdom Emissions Trading Scheme United Nations Conference on Environment and Development United Nations Environment Programme United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change United States Forest Service Verified Emissions Reduction World Food Programme World Meteorological Organization World Resources Institute Water-Use Efficiency World-Wide Fund for Nature World Overview of Conservation Approaches and Technologies 10 Dubois, J And R Lamego (1998) Desenvolvimento sustentável em regiões serranas Rio de Janeiro: aspectos econơmicos, socioculturais e políticas oficiais de uso da terra Paper presented at Sathla Conference, Rio de Janeiro, March 9-13 1998 In Portuguese Dubrovsky, M., Zalud, Z., Stasna, M and M Trnka (2000) Effect of climate change and climate variability on crop yields In: Proceedings of the 3rd European Conference on Applied Climatology, Pisa, Italy, October 16-20 2000 Dudley, R (2005) A generic look at payments for environmental services Plan or scam? 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