Xác định hàm cầu nhập khẩu vật tư nông nghiệp của Việt Nam trong thời kỳ đổi mới (lấy ví dụ phân bón urê)

Header Page of 258 LI CAM OAN Tụi xin cam ủoan ủõy l cụng trỡnh nghiờn cu ca riờng tụi Cỏc s liu nờu lun ỏn l trung thc v cú ngun gc rừ rng Cỏc kt qu nờu lun ỏn cha tng ủc cụng b bt k cụng trỡnh no khỏc Nguyn Th Hũa Footer Page of 258 Header Page of 258 i MC LC CHNG 1: M U 1.1 Tớnh cp thit ca ủ ti lun ỏn 1.2 Mt s ủ liờn quan ủn ủ ti lun ỏn 1.3 Mc tiờu nghiờn cu ca lun ỏn 1.4 Phm vi nghiờn cu ca lun ỏn 1.5 Phng phỏp nghiờn cu 10 1.6 Nhng ủúng gúp ca lun ỏn .10 1.7 Kt cu ca lun ỏn 11 CHNG 2: MT S VN Lí LUN V THC TIN V CU NHP KHU URấ CHO NễNG NGHIP 12 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 Vai trũ ca urờ vi sn xut nụng nghip 12 Cỏc nhõn t c bn tỏc ủng ti cu nhp khu urờ 17 Cung, cu phõn ủm ca mt s th trng ln trờn th gii 28 Mụ hỡnh cu nhp khu ca Leamer .37 Mụ hỡnh cu nhp khu cỏc nhõn t 46 CHNG 3: THC TRNG CUNG, CU URấ VIT NAM TRONG THI GIAN QUA 49 3.1 Thc trng tiờu dựng urờ Vit nam .49 3.2 Thc trng cung urờ Vit Nam .66 CHNG 4: XC NH HM CU NHP KHU URấ CA VIT NAM, D BO LNG NHP KHU URấ TRONG CC NM TI V KIN NGH 85 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 Phng hng v mc tiờu phỏt trin nụng nghip ca Vit Nam 85 Kh nng phỏt trin sn xut urờ & phõn bún cú liờn quan nc 88 Xỏc ủnh hm cu nhp khu urờ .90 D bỏo lng cu nhp khu urờ cho cỏc nm 2007, 2008, 2009 107 ỏnh giỏ thc trng cung cu phõn ủm ca VN qua hm cu NK urờ 113 Kin ngh mt s gii phỏp nhm n ủnh & phỏt trin th trng urờ 119 KT LUN 127 KIN NGH V NHNG NGHIấN CU TIP THEO 129 DANH MC CC CễNG TRèNH CễNG B CA TC GI 130 TI LIU THAM KHO 131 PH LC 136 Footer Page of 258 Header Page of 258 ii DANH MC CC CH VIT TT Vit tt CN C BVTV CEE CIF CIS Vit ủy ủ ting Vit C ủnh ủm i chng Bo v thc vt Trung & ụngu Giỏ c hng nhp khu tớnh c phớ bo him v chuyn Cng ủng cỏc quc gia ủc lp NN&CNTP BSCL EEC Nụng nghip &Cụng nghip thc phm ng bng sụng Cu Long Cng ủng kinh t Chõu u EFMA Hip hi sn xut phõn bún Chõu u ECU EU EU15 FAO n v tin t chung Chõu u Liờn minh Chõu u Liờn minh Chõu u gm 15 nc Tõy u T chc nụng nghip v lng thc (Liờn hip quc) FOB HST IFIA Giỏ c hng xut khu cha tớnh phớ bo him, chuyn H sinh thỏi Hip hi phõn bún quc t IMF Qu tin t quc t IPM Qun lý dch hi tng hp KHKT LT NK NN NHNN NHTM SL SX SXNN TB TN TT UBKHNN Khoa hc k thut Tng sn lng lng thc Nhp khu Nụng nghip Ngõn hng Nh nc Ngõn hng Thng mi Sn lng Sn xut Sn xut nụng nghip Trung bỡnh Thu nhp Th trng U ban k hoch Nh nc Footer Page of 258 Vit ủy ủ ting Anh Central &East European Cost, Insurance and Freight Commonwealth of Independent States European Economic Community European Fertilizer Manufacturers Association European Currency Unit European Union Food and Agricultural Organization Free On Board International Fertilizer Industry Association International Monetary Fund Intergrated Pest Management Header Page of 258 Vit tt UBNN VND VTNN WTO XK 1995/96 Footer Page of 258 iii Vit ủy ủ ting Vit U ban nhõn dõn ng Vit Nam Vt t nụng nghip T chc thng mi th gii Xut khu Thi gian canh tỏc nụng nghip tớnh cho mt nm k t v ủụng nm 1995 cho ủn v hố thu nm 1996 Vit ủy ủ ting Anh World Trade Organization Header Page of 258 iv DANH MC CC BNG Bng 2-1: úng gúp ca cỏc nhõn t ủi vi tng sn lng trng trt 13 Bng 2-2: Tiờu dựng v nhp khu N ca EU15 giai ủon 1989/90-1997/98 31 Bng 3-1: Sn lng lng thc cú ht ủt ủc giai ủon 1990-2006 .51 Bng 3-2: Cỏc nụng sn xut khu ch yu ca VN .53 Bng 3-3: Tiờu th phõn vụ c Vit Nam giai ủon 1985/86-2004/2005 57 Bng 3-4: Mc tiờu th cỏc cht dinh dng c bn trờn mi 59 Bng 3-5: Lng phõn chung mi nm ca cỏc loi gia sỳc 61 Bng 3-6: T l cỏc cht dinh dng cú phõn chung 62 Bng 3-7: Dõn s v s lng ủn gia sỳc ca VN .62 Bng 3-8: Lng cỏc cht dinh dng c bn t 63 Bng 3-9: Kh nng tit kim ủm khoỏng ca phõn vi sinh c ủnh nit 64 Bng 3-10: Hiu qu s dng phõn vi sinh c ủnh nit 64 Bng 3-11: Giỏ Urờ (FOB) nm 2004 v 2005 ti Baltic v Persian Gulf 71 Bng 3-12: Giỏ Urờ (FOB) nm 2005 v 2006 ti Baltic v Persian Gulf 71 Bng 3-13: Tỡnh hỡnh NK khu phõn vụ c ca VN giai ủon 1990-2005 75 Bng 3-14: Nhng doanh nghip nhp nhiu urờ thỏng 2/2007 .81 Bng 4-1: S liu thng kờ v lng urờ NK, sn lng lng thc, giỏ 95 Bng 4-2: Phõn phi F cho ( , , ) = ( , 0, 1) mụ hỡnh .99 Bng 4-3: Cỏc kt qu kim ủnh DF v nghim ủn v .100 Bng 4-4: Cỏc giỏ tr ủc trng cho kim ủnh DW = 102 Bng 4-5:Kim ủnh ủng tớch hp gia bin ph thuc v cỏc bin gii thớch 102 Bng 4-6: Kt qu mụ hỡnh hi qui (4-16) 104 Bng 4-7: Kt qu mụ hỡnh hi qui (4-17) 104 Bng 4-8: D bỏo giỏ thc ca urờ, sn lng lng thc v lng cung urờ 109 Bng 4-9: D bỏo lng cu nhp khu urờ trung bỡnh cho cỏc nm .112 Bng 4-10: D bỏo lng cu nhp khu urờ trung bỡnh cho cỏc nm 113 Footer Page of 258 Header Page of 258 v DANH MC CC HèNH Hỡnh 2-1:Cung-cu lng thc th gii giai ủon 1995-2005 15 Hỡnh 2-2: Cu nhp khu hng húa sn xut 40 Hỡnh 3-1: Tng sn lng lng thc ca VN giai ủon 1986-2006 .52 Hỡnh 4-1: Cu nhp khu urờ urờ nhp khu l hng húa thay th .93 Hỡnh 4-2: Lng urờ nhp khu ca VN giai ủon 1986-2006 94 Hỡnh 4-3: Giỏ thc ca urờ ti th trng VN giai ủon 1986-2006 .95 Hỡnh 4-4: Tng sn lng lng thc ca VN giai ủon 1986-2006 .96 Hỡnh 4-5: Lng cung urờ nc giai ủon 1986-2006 96 Hỡnh 4-6: Tng din tớch canh tỏc nụng nghip giai ủon 1986-2006 96 Hỡnh 4-7: Nng sut lỳa ca VN giai ủon 1986-2006 97 Footer Page of 258 Header Page of 258 CHNG 1: M U 1.1 Tớnh cp thit ca ủ ti lun ỏn Sau 20 nm ủi mi di s lónh ủo ca ng Cng sn Vit Nam k t i hi ng ln th VI nm 1986 nn kinh t Vit Nam ủó thc s thay ủi v cht, ủi sng nhõn dõn ủc ci thin rừ rt, tng trng rt mnh hu ht cỏc ngnh, ủc bit ngnh sn xut nụng nghip Nc ta t mt nn kinh t rt lc hu, khng hong trin miờn v thiu lng thc trm trng tr thnh mt nc xut khu go ủng th hai th gii vi mc xut khu n ủnh trờn triu tn/nm, ch sau Thỏi Lan, ủm bo an ninh lng thc Sn xut nụng nghip ủó thc s l ch da vng chc ủ chỳng ta tin hnh Cụng nghip húa- Hin ủi húa ủt nc nhng nm tip theo Tuy nhiờn, bờn cnh nhng thnh tu to ln ủú ngnh nụng nghip Vit Nam cũn nhiu yu kộm, bt cp Trong giỏ tr sn phm nụng nghip thp nhng mt nhng vt t nụng nghip quan trng l phõn bún urờ - sn phm ca ngnh cụng nghip - cú giỏ rt cao Cho ti nm 2003, ngnh sn xut urờ nc mi ch ủỏp ng ủc khong 7,1% nhu cu ca sn xut nụng nghip, cũn li chỳng ta phi nhp khu v ph thuc vo giỏ c v cung cu urờ ca th gii; riờng nm 2003 c nc phi nhp khu hn 1,9 triu tn urờ H thng phõn phi urờ cũn thiu ủng b, th trng urờ nhiu ri lon T nm 2003, giỏ urờ th gii tng mnh v ủng mc cao giỏ du la v khớ ga tng T thỏng 9/2004, Nh mỏy phõn ủm Phỳ M ủi vo sn xut vi sn lng 720.000 tn urờ/nm Sn lng urờ ca Phỳ M cng ch ủỏp ng 30-35% nhu cu th trng nc Vic Nh nc giao cho Nh mỏy Phỳ M ủiu tit n ủnh giỏ th trng urờ vi mc giỏ thp hn giỏ nhp khu 1%-5% t khụng hiu qu Nm 2005, giỏ c urờ khụng kim soỏt ni gõy tỏc ủng xu ủn tõm lý v hot ủng nhp khu urờ ca cỏc nh nhp khu Cỏc nh nhp khu urờ khụng dỏm nhp vỡ s thua l, thiu cung urờ trm trng xy ra, tỡnh trng ủu c phõn bún xut hin, phõn bún gi v cht lng kộm trn lan, th trng urờ nc bt n thi gian di Cng thng v Footer Page of 258 Header Page of 258 ngun cung urờ lm cho ngi nụng dõn ủng trc nhiu khú khn, tiờu dựng urờ gim sỳt mnh, nng sut cõy trng v sn lng cõy trng ủú b nh hng nghiờm trng Bờn cnh ủú hot ủng d bỏo v tiờu dựng urờ ca cỏc c quan qun lý Nh nc l rt khỏc v sai lch rt nhiu so vi thc t Vic xỏc ủnh hm cu nhp khu urờ v xõy dng mt mụdul d bỏo cú tớnh khoa hc, khỏch quan v lng cu nhp khu urờ cho cỏc nm ti l ht sc cn thit ng thi cn cú nhng gii phỏp no ủ cú th n ủnh & phỏt trin th trng urờ VN Vỡ nhng lý trờn tụi ủó chn ủ ti lun ỏn: Xỏc ủnh hm cu nhp khu vt t nụng nghip ca Vit Nam thi k ủi mi (ly vớ d phõn bún URấ) 1.2 Mt s ủ liờn quan ủn ủ ti lun ỏn 1.2.1 Tng quan v cu NK mt s vt t NN nhp khu chớnh ca VN Vt t nụng nghip theo ngha tng quỏt l tt c cỏc loi nguyờn, nhiờn, vt liu, trang thit b ủc s dng cho sn xut nụng nghip Do ủú vt t nụng nghip bao gm rt nhiu chng loi, nhiờn tu theo lnh vc sn xut nụng nghip (trng trt, chn nuụi ) m vt t nụng nghip cng ủc hiu theo ngha hp c th hn Trong nn nụng nghip sn xut lỳa nc ca VN, ụng cha ta ủó ủỳc kt li vai trũ ca vt t nụng nghip quan trng cõu Nht nc, nhỡ phõn, tam cn, t ging Cỏc loi vt t nụng nghip ủc nhp khu chớnh vo nc ta hin l phõn bún vụ c, húa cht bo v thc vt, ging lỳa lai V nhp khu phõn vụ c Trc nm 1990, sn xut nụng nghip nc ta ch yu mang tớnh t cp t tỳc, lng phõn bún vụ c nhp khu khụng ủỏng k ch yu l phõn ủm t Liờn Xụ (c) Sau nn kinh t chuyn ủi hnh theo c ch th trng, cựng vi s gia tng ca sn lng lng thc v nng sut cõy trng, lng phõn bún nhp khu cng khụng ngng tng lờn; nu nh nm 1990 lng nhp khu l 2,085 triu tn phõn bún cỏc loi, ủú urờ l 786.000 tn, thỡ nm 2003 cú lng nhp khu phõn bún cao nht l 4,135 triu tn, ủú urờ l 1,926 triu tn Hin nay, tng s nhu cu phõn bún vụ c cn cho sn xut Footer Page of 258 Header Page of 258 nụng nghip khong 7,5-7,7 triu tn, thỡ lng nhp khu phõn bún khong 3,2-3,3 triu tn ủú phõn ủm urờ triu tn, amụn sunphỏt (SA) khong 700.000 tn, phõn lõn phc hp DAP khong 750.000 tn, phõn kali 750.000 tn, v mt s loi phõn hn hp NPK T 1/4/2000, Chớnh ph ủó bói b mt phn ro cn thng mi ủi vi phõn bún nhp khu nhng ỏp thu NK 10% ủi vi lõn, 5% ủi vi NPK v ph thu chờnh lch giỏ ủi vi NPK l 4% Khụng ỏp thu nhp khu v b ph thu chờnh lch giỏ ủi vi cỏc loi phõn nhp khu ch yu nh urờ, SA, DAP v kali; ỏp thu VAT 5% ủi vi tt c cỏc loi phõn bún nhp khu Chớnh sỏch ni lng hn ch thng mi ny gúp phn ủỏng k gim bt cng thng ngun cung phõn bún vụ c cho th trng nc Urờ l loi loi phõn vụ c nhp khu ch yu ca VN thi gian qua Hng nm chỳng ta phi dnh ti khong 30 triu USD ủ nhp khu urờ Th trng urờ quc t nhng nm gn ủõy cú nhiu bin ủng, giỏ urờ tng mnh lm cho th trng urờ nc luụn mt n ủnh lm nh hng xu ti sn xut nụng nghip nc v gõy thit hi cho ngi sn xut nụng nghip Ngun s liu v lng nhp khu, sn lng nc v giỏ c urờ ủc cp nht nhiu nm V nhp khu húa cht bo v thc vt õy l cỏc loi hoỏ cht cú ngun gc t nhiờn hoc tng hp t sn xut cụng nghip dựng ủ phũng chng hoc tiờu dit nhng sinh vt gõy hi mng nụng lõm nghip Cn c vo loi sõu hi cn dit, húa cht BVTV cú cỏc tờn gi tng ng: Thuc tr sõu, Thuc tr nm, Thuc tr c, Thuc tr chut Hin cú khong 450 hp cht ủc s dng lm húa cht bo v thc vt Húa cht BVTV rt cn ủ khng ch sõu bnh dch hi cho cõy trng nhng li d gõy hi ủi vi mụi trng sinh thỏi v sc kho ngi õy l nhng húa cht Nh nc kim soỏt cht ch s dng, dựng phi ủỳng ủi tng (cõy, cụn trựng, bnh nm ); ủỳng liu lng; ủỳng nng ủ Núi chung chỳng ta phi s dng hn ch húa cht BVTV, khuyn khớch s dng cỏc bin phỏp sinh hc bo v thc vt thay th húa cht BVTV Tuy Nh nc khụng khuyn khớch nhp khu hoỏ cht BVTV, nhng nc cha sn xut ủc nờn hng nm chỳng phi dnh mt lng ngoi t ủỏng k ủ nhp khu mt lng thuc tr sõu nht ủnh; tớnh riờng nm 2005, s ny l 243 triu USD v nm 2006 khong 299 triu USD Ngun s liu v giỏ c rt Footer Page of 258 Header Page 10 of 258 nhiu chng loi húa cht BVTV khụng ủc cp nht cú h thng, ch cú s liu v tng kim ngch nhp khu dnh cho thuc tr sõu (ph lc PL-1.1) V nhp khu ging lỳa lai ủm bo an ninh lng thc v gi mc xut khu go khong triu tn/nm ủiu kin chuyn ủi c cu kinh t nụng nghip, dõn s tip tc gia tng mc 1,2-1,1% v din tớch trng lỳa gim t 4,02 triu tn (nm 2004) xung 3,996 triu (nm 2007) thỡ nng sut lỳa bỡnh quõn c nc cn ủc nng cao thờm tn/ha Ngoi cỏc bin phỏp v thu li, phõn bún, thuc bo v thc vt , thỡ gii phỏp c bn ủ tng nng sut l phi cụng ngh sn xut lỳa lai vo sn xut Kt qu s dng ging lỳa lai t 19912006 cho thy nng sut bỡnh quõn trờn din rng tng lờn khong 10-15 t/ha so vi lỳa thng v tng n ủnh thi gian qua, ủc bit phự hp vi cỏc tnh phớa Bc cú trỡnh ủ thõm canh cao v quỏn cy lỳa dựng ớt ht ging, khong 20 kg ht ging/ha Cõy lỳa lai cho nng sut cao ủiu kin sinh thỏi vựng nỳi, nờn cú th gúp phn xoỏ ủúi gim nghốo v ủm bo lng thc ti ch cho nhõn dõn vựng nỳi phớa Bc, Trung v Tõy Nguyờn; Nhng hin cõy lỳa lai cha phự hp vi ủiu kin sn xut lỳa hng hoỏ BSCL Cỏc loi lỳa lai hin Vit Nam hu ht l ging nhp khu theo tng v t Trung Quc ú l cỏc loi lỳa lai ba dũng nh Bc u 64, Bc u 903, Nh u 838 hoc hai dũng Bi sn thanh, Bi 49 Giỏ lỳa lai tng ủi cao thng khong 20.000-30.000 VND/kg, mt khỏc li ph thuc vo kh nng cung t Trung Quc Hin Nh nc phi tr giỏ ging lỳa lai t 2.000-5.000 VND/kg cho nụng dõn ủ khuyn khớch sn xut Nng sut lỳa lai bỡnh quõn ủt 63 t/ha, trờn din tớch khong 600.000 Sn lng thúc tng lờn lỳa lai khong 0,8-1,0 triu tn/nm Tuy nhiờn, sn xut lỳa lai nc mi ủỏp ng 20% nhu cu Hng nm, 80% cũn li phi nhp khu t Trung Quc vi s lng khong trờn 11.000 tn, nhng rt b ủng v s lng, giỏ c v chng loi Lng ngoi t dnh cho nhp khu lỳa lai lờn ủn 15-25 triu USD/nm Nc ta bt ủu nghiờn cu ging lỳa lai t nhng nm 1980, nhng thc s phỏt trin t nm 1994, thnh lp Trung tõm lỳa lai thuc Vin Khoa hc KTNN Vit Nam Trung tõm ủó ủiu phi chng trỡnh lỳa lai quc gia cựng vi s tham gia ca cỏc vin khỏc nh Vin di truyn NN, i Hc NNI, Vin cõy lng thc, Vin lỳa BSCL, Vin bo v thc vt, Vin Kinh Footer Page 10 of 258 Header Page 147 of 258 141 củaEU giai đoạn 1989/1997 (triệu tấn) Lợng tiêu dùng nhập phân N PL-2.12: Lng tiờu dựng v nhp khu phõn N ca EU15 giai ủon 1989/90-1997/98 14 12 10 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Năm Ngun: EFMA/EUROSTAT PL-2.13: Mc ủ s dng v chi phớ cỏc ủu vo thay th ủ sn xut amụnic Chi phớ nng lng Chi phớ ủu t Chi phớ sn xut Khớ ga t nhiờn 1,0 1,0 1,0 Du la nng 1,3 1,4 1,2 Than 1,7 2,4 1,7 Ngun: EFMA, 2004 PL-2.14: So sỏnh li th cnh tranh gia mt s nc v khu vc sn xut phõn nit chớnh ca th gii hin EU Cụng ngh Hin ủi u vo Ch yu khớ ga t nhiờn Cao Chi phớ nng lng Hiu qu nng lng Thi CO2/ủn v N Footer Page 147 of 258 Trung Quc Nhiu nh mỏy nh Ch yu than ủỏ Nga Cn thay ủi Khớ ga t nhiờn Trung v ụng u Cn thay ủi M Hin ủi Trung ụng Hin ủi Ch yu khớ ga t nhiờn Cao/trung bỡnh Khớ ga t nhiờn Khớ ga t nhiờn Trung bỡnh Rt thp Thp Cao Thiu nng lng r thp thp trung bỡnh cao Cao thp rt cao cao cao/trung bỡnh thp Thp Header Page 148 of 258 142 Giỏ khớ ga Cao Cao Yờu cu v Cao Thp an ton & mụi trng Hu cn cú li th cú ủ v ti Tip cn th trng Li nhun nm 1995 Thp/TB Thp Trung bỡnh Thp/trung bỡnh Cao Cao Thp Cao/trung bỡnh ớt li th cú li th cú li th gn ủn trung bỡnh thp/trung bỡnh gn xa cao cao gn gn cỏc cng khụng hiu qu xa trung bỡnh thp rt thp Ngun: IFA, 2004 PL-2.15: Tng trng kinh t th gii giai ủon 1996-2005 Tng trng GDP ( % ) Th gii Cỏc nn kinh t phỏt trin Cỏc nn kinh t ủang phỏt trin Ngun: IMF, 2004 PL-2.16: Lng cu phõn vụ c th gii nm 2002/03, nm 2003/04 v d bỏo nm 2004/05 n v: 1000 tn Cỏc cht Mc thay ủi 2004/05 Mc thay ủi dinh dng 2002/03 2003/04 c bn 2003/04 so vi 2004/05 so vi 2002/03 (%) 2003/04 (%) N 84944 85868 1,1% 88252 2,8% P2O5 33791 34651 2,5% 35637 2,8% K2O 23776 24986 5,1% 25897 3,6% 142512 145505 2,1% 149786 2,5% Tng s Ngun: IFIA Footer Page 148 of 258 Header Page 149 of 258 143 PL-3.1: Kt qu sn xut nụng nghip VN giai ủon 1981-1985: Bỡnh quõn 1981-1985 So sỏnh bỡnh quõn 1981-1985 vi bỡnh quõn 1976-1980 (%) Sn lng lng thc qui thúc (triu tn) 16,9 127 Nng sut lỳa v (t/ha) 24,25 123 295 114 Ch tiờu Lng thc bỡnh quõn (kg/ngi) Ngun: Nụng nghip VN phỏt trin bn vng, Ts Nguyn T, NXB CTQG, 2004 PL-3.2: Sn lng lng thc cú ht ủt ủc giai ủon 1990-2004 Nm Sn lng (nghỡn tn) Tc ủ tng Din tớch trng lỳa (%) (Nghỡn ha) Nng sut lỳa c nm (t/ha) SL LT bỡnh quõn ủu ngi (kg) Tc ủ tng (%) 1990 19896,1 0,3 6042,8 31,8 301,4 -1,6 1991 20293,9 2,0 6302,8 31,1 301,8 0,1 1992 22338,3 10,1 6475,3 33,3 326,3 8,1 1993 23718,7 6,2 6559,4 34,8 340,6 4,4 1994 24672,1 4,0 6598,6 35,7 348,4 2,3 1995 26140,9 6,0 6765,6 36,9 363,1 4,2 1996 27933,4 6,9 7003,8 37,7 381,8 5,2 1997 29174,5 4,4 7099,7 38,8 392,6 2,8 1998 30757,5 5,4 7362,7 39,6 407,6 3,8 1999 33146,9 7,8 7648,1 41,0 432,7 6,2 2000 34535,4 4,2 7655,4 42,4 444,8 2,8 2001 34270,1 -0,8 7492,7 42,9 435,5 -2,1 2002 36958,4 6,1 7504,3 45,9 463,6 4,8 2003 37452,3 4,0 7449,3 46,3 464,8 2,3 2004 39322,9 4,1 7328,0 48,6 479,1 2.6 2005 39549,0 48,9 2006 39648,0 49,3 Ngun: 1.Thi bỏo Kinh t Vit Nam Khoa hc cụng ngh Nụng nghip v phỏt trin nụng thụn 20 nm ủi mi, NXB Chớnh tr quc gia, 2005 Footer Page 149 of 258 Header Page 150 of 258 144 PL-3.3: Mt s ch tiờu kinh t c bn ca Vit Nam giai ủon 1991-2005 GDP Nm (nghỡn t VND) Tc ủ tng GDP (%) GDP (t USD) Giỏ tr xut T l khu (t XK/ USD) GDP Lm phỏt T giỏ VND/ USD 1991 76,707 5,81 8.271 2,0871 25,2 67,4 9274 1992 110,050 8,70 9.870 2,5807 26,1 17,5 11150 1993 136,570 8,08 12.836 2,9852 23,3 5,2 10640 1994 170,260 8,83 15.542 4,0543 26,1 14,4 10955 1995 228,891 9,54 20.714 5,4489 26,3 12,7 11050 1996 272,030 9,34 24.556 7,2559 29,5 4,5 11078 1997 313,624 8,15 26.114 9,1850 35,0 3,6 12010 1998 368,690 5,76 27.310 9,3603 34,3 9,2 13500 1999 399,942 4,77 28.365 11,5414 40,7 0,1 14100 2000 441,800 6,79 31.347 14,4830 46,2 -0,6 14094 2001 481,300 6,89 32.686 15,0290 46,0 0,8 14725 2002 536,100 7,08 35.085 16,7061 47,6 4,0 15280 2003 613,400 7,34 38.974 20,1493 51,8 3,0 15536 2004 715,300 7,79 45.295 26,5042 57,4 9,5 15750 2005 837,900 8,43 52.731 32,2330 61,1 8,6 15890 Ngun: Thi bỏo Kinh t Vit Nam Footer Page 150 of 258 Header Page 151 of 258 145 PL-3.3 (tip) Nm Dõn s (nghỡn ngi) Tc ủ tng (%) Sn lng phõn bún (nghỡn tn) Tng s Nhp khu phõn bún (nghỡn tn) urờ Tng s urờ Nhp khu thuc tr sõu (triu USD) 1991 67242,4 1,86 44,890 2663 1080 23 1992 68450,1 1,80 82,633 2420 424 24 1993 69644,5 1,74 100,093 3018 1250 33 1994 70824,5 1,69 103,222 4134 1543 59 1995 71995,5 1,65 110,972 2316,9 1356 100,4 1996 73156,7 1,61 965 120,471 2630 1467 89 1997 74306,9 1,57 982 130,170 2527 1480 130 1998 75456,3 1,55 978 63,905 3448 1944 126,3 1999 76569,7 1,51 1143,1 48,769 3702,9 1893 133,1 2000 77635,4 1,36 1209,5 76,145 3971,3 2108, 143,5 2001 78685,8 1,35 1065,1 98,971 3288 1652 102,8 2002 79727,4 1,32 2640,1 107,141 3820 1818 116,5 2003 80902,4 1,47 3001,0 148,196 4119 1943 116 2004 82032,3 1,40 3490,0 390,000 4079 1708 210 2005 83121,7 1,33 4320,0 860,000 2908 883 244 Ngun: Thi bỏo Kinh t Vit Nam, B thng mi Vit nam, Cụng ty Phõn m v húa cht H Bc-45 nm xõy dng v trng thnh (1960-2005) Footer Page 151 of 258 Header Page 152 of 258 146 PL-3.4: Sn lng phõn urờ, NPK ca nh mỏy phõn ủm H Bc giai ủon 1986-2005, [20] urờ NPK urờ NPK Nm (tn) (tn) Nm (tn) (tn) 1986 16862 11884 1996 120471 4775 1987 19600 21769 1997 130170 3472 1988 33006 14460 1998 63905 6920 1989 25762 3480 1999 48769 14259 1990 23603 3886 2000 76145 7260 1991 44890 8568 2001 98971 9639 1992 82633 6940 2002 107141 9592 1993 100093 3211 2003 148196 12501 1994 103222 4045 2004 162268 11465 1995 110972 3190 2005 160000 15000 Ngun: Cụng ty Phõn m v húa cht H Bc-45 nm xõy dng v trng thnh (1960-2005) PL-3.5: Sn lng phõn bún v nhp khu ca VN giai ủon 2000-2005 n v: 1.000 tn; Loi phõn Phõn ủm Urờ 2000 2002 2001 2003 2004 2005 76 99 107 148 390 880 Phõn lõn cỏc loi 1.017 1.027 1.050 1.155 1.250 1450 Phõn bún NPK 1.209 1.100 1.500 1.700 1.850 2.000 Tng sn lng 2.302 2.226 2.657 3.001 3.490 4320 Lng khu 3.971 nhp 3.820 3.288 2.908 4.119 4.079 Ngun: B Thng mi, V KHT Footer Page 152 of 258 Header Page 153 of 258 147 PL-3.6: Tỡnh hỡnh nhp khu phõn vụ c ca VN giai ủon 1990-2005 Nm Nhp khu phõn bún (nghỡn tn) Trong ủú urờ (nghỡn tn) Nm Nhp khu phõn bún (nghỡn tn) Trong ủú urờ (nghỡn tn) 1990 2085 786 1998 3448 1944 1991 2663 1080 1999 3702,9 1893 1992 2420 424 2000 3971,3 2108,3 1993 3018 1250 2001 3288 1652 1994 4134 1543 2002 3820 1818 1995 2316,9 1356 2003 4135 1926 1996 2630 1467 2004 4079 1708 1997 2527 1480 2005 2908 861 Ngun: Thi bỏo Kinh t Vit Nam PL-3.7: Giỏ urờ ca th gii giai ủon 1991-2000 (FOB) Nm Giỏ Urờ ($/tn) 1991 151 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 TB 123 94 131 194 187 128 103 78 112 130 Ngun : IMF, International Financial Statistics, Yearbook and July, 2001 issues G iáphânurêthếgiới (U SD /tấnFO B) PL-3.8: Giỏ urờ th gii 2000-2005 (FOB) 300 260-265 240-250 250 200 150-155 150 105-110 100 95-105 75-80 50 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Ngun: Thi bỏo Kinh t Vit Nam Footer Page 153 of 258 Header Page 154 of 258 148 PL-3.9: Giỏ trung bỡnh nhp khu phõn vụ c tun thỏng 1/2007 Mt hng Phõn Urờ Phõn NPK Phõn DAP Phõn SA Phõn MAP n giỏ (USD/tn) 247 234 300 101 331 Giỏ trung bỡnh 10 ngy ủu T12/2006 236 251 301 102 PL-4.1: Kt qu chy chng trỡnh mụ hỡnh hi qui cu nhp khu urờ lnUREt = a0 + a11n(Pt) + a2ln(LTt) + a3ln(St) + a4(DVt) + ut (4-17) Dependent Variable: LOG(URE) Method: Least Squares Date: 04/04/07 Time: 17:22 Sample: 1986 2006 Included observations: 21 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob LOG(P) -0.538296808721 0.245557568551 -2.19214097899 0.0435040288815 LOG(LT) 2.41034091653 0.52501969878 4.5909532959 0.00030132485212 LOG(S) -0.253403576877 0.118420034547 -2.13987082378 0.0481206077268 DV 0.821754518095 0.230530352726 3.5646261257 0.00258537942064 C 8.47289128068 1.81784959543 4.66094186338 0.000260936631282 R-squared 0.83177641086 Mean dependent var 13.8693866831 Adjusted R-squared 0.789720513575 S.D dependent var 0.62616381916 S.E of regression 0.287135191717 F-statistic 19.7778781231 Sum squared resid 1.31914589316 Prob(F-statistic) 4.90902906525e-06 Durbin-Watson stat 1.6396426964 PL-4.2: Kt qu chy chng trỡnh mụ hỡnh hi qui cu nhp khu urờ lnUREt = a0+a11n(Pt)+a2ln(LTt)+a3ln(St)+a4ln(DT)+a5(DVt) + ut Dependent Variable: LOG(URE) Method: Least Squares Date: 04/04/07 Time: 17:29 Sample: 1986 2006 Included observations: 21 Variable Coefficient LOG(P) -0.607037119921 LOG(LT) 3.34576369384 LOG(S) -0.224389689403 LOG(DT) -1.42498439445 DV 0.865339667814 C 18.272663911 R-squared 0.839740590268 Footer Page 154 of 258 (4-16) Std Error t-Statistic Prob 0.260023672164 -2.33454560067 0.033880028872 1.20579327523 2.77474071432 0.0141629318262 0.12401335547 -1.80939938729 0.0904706225303 1.65046276419 -0.863384758119 0.401520735417 0.237806361804 3.63884154003 0.00242467195556 11.4973846876 1.58928873022 0.132846460846 Mean dependent var 13.8693866831 Header Page 155 of 258 Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Durbin-Watson stat 149 0.786320787024 0.28944703651 1.25669380417 1.7481352186 S.D dependent var F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.62616381916 15.7196496294 1.68210568142e-05 PL-4.3: Kt qu chy chng trỡnh mụ hỡnh hi qui cu nhp khu urờ lnUREt = a0 + a11n(Pt) + a2ln(LTt) + a3ln(St) + a4(DVt) + ut (4-17) Tớnh ủn nm 2005 Dependent Variable: LOG(URE) Method: Least Squares Date: 08/30/07 Time: 23:15 Sample: 1986 2005 Included observations: 20 Variable Coefficient LOG(P) -0.553802987207 LOG(LT) 2.41187212008 LOG(S) -0.201604474603 DV 0.763110721575 C 7.94615729183 R-squared 0.8379457038 Adjusted R-squared 0.794731224813 S.E of regression 0.290568875698 Sum squared resid 1.26645407287 Durbin-Watson stat 1.67556320713 Std Error t-Statistic Prob 0.249268052864 -2.22171666543 0.0421109647994 0.531301641741 4.53955329815 0.000391240289005 0.136601683735 -1.47585643962 0.160664782745 0.244813172063 3.1171146354 0.00706578711156 1.95669421178 4.06101129342 0.0010241425293 Mean dependent var 13.8773485151 S.D dependent var 0.64133899589 F-statistic 19.3903923742 Prob(F-statistic) 8.6071504985e-06 PL-4.4: Kt qu chy chng trỡnh hi qui khụng cú ủiu kin rng buc Yt - Yt-1 = + t + ( -1)Yt-1 + Yt-1 V cú ủiu kin rng buc Yt - Yt-1 = + Yt-1 vi chui cu nhp khu urờ dựng cho kim ủnh nghim ủn v Dependent Variable: URE Method: Least Squares Date: 04/04/07 Time: 17:44 Sample(adjusted): 1988 2006 Included observations: 19 after adjusting endpoints Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic T -12829.2376292 38032.3657195 -0.337324207592 URE(-1) -0.168710608406 0.360883679432 -0.46749304006 -0.159506715384 0.380593601542 -0.419099834412 URE(-1) C 403172.861632 235726.886216 1.71033889304 R-squared 0.185529010268 Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared 0.0226348123218 S.D dependent var S.E of regression 391982.125238 F-statistic Sum squared resid 2.3047497976e+1 Prob(F-statistic) Durbin-Watson stat 2.11050530939 Footer Page 155 of 258 Prob 0.740546439418 0.646866537406 0.681083078722 0.107800068643 25578.9473684 396495.105167 1.1389540733 0.365226689083 Header Page 156 of 258 150 Dependent Variable: URE Method: Least Squares Date: 04/04/07 Time: 18:15 Sample(adjusted): 1988 2006 Included observations: 19 after adjusting endpoints Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic -0.161740804642 0.239148158949 -0.676320509232 URE(-1) C 30192.8166377 92616.5812306 0.325997961018 R-squared 0.0262014494768 Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared -0.031080818201 S.D dependent var S.E of regression 402609.65356 F-statistic Sum squared resid 2.75560706337e+ Prob(F-statistic) 12 Durbin-Watson stat 2.06996360951 Prob 0.507935092372 0.748404536799 25578.9473684 396495.105167 0.457409431208 0.507935092372 PL-4.5: Kt qu chy chng trỡnh hi qui khụng cú ủiu kin rng buc Yt - Yt-1 = + t + ( -1)Yt-1 + Yt-1 V cú ủiu kin rng buc Yt - Yt-1 = + Yt-1 vi chui giỏ urờ dựng cho kim ủnh nghim ủn v Dependent Variable: P Method: Least Squares Date: 04/04/07 Time: 18:29 Sample(adjusted): 1988 2006 Included observations: 19 after adjusting endpoints Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob T 0.0841355656338 0.0346796971732 2.42607555694 0.0283410314626 P(-1) -0.458101639308 0.212982356789 -2.15089008411 0.0481934733381 0.372184256126 0.265682830009 1.40085927312 0.181603782587 P(-1) C 0.0223699086661 0.190225363695 0.117596876839 0.907947290723 R-squared 0.312821396551 Mean dependent var 0.182082789474 Adjusted R-squared 0.175385675862 S.D dependent var 0.364057703649 S.E of regression 0.330594529366 F-statistic 2.27612876028 Sum squared resid 1.6393911427 Prob(F-statistic) 0.121539128459 Durbin-Watson stat 1.70135078786 Dependent Variable: P Method: Least Squares Date: 04/04/07 Time: 18:38 Sample(adjusted): 1988 2006 Included observations: 19 after adjusting endpoints Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob 0.199582708257 0.228143688748 0.87481143726 0.393868332711 P(-1) C 0.149153701465 0.0921125138584 1.61925557361 0.123793442299 Footer Page 156 of 258 Header Page 157 of 258 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Durbin-Watson stat 151 0.0430780940356 -0.0132114298447 0.366454674179 2.28291347987 1.80739773221 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.182082789474 0.364057703649 0.765295050767 0.393868332711 PL-4.6: Kt qu chy chng trỡnh hi qui khụng cú ủiu kin rng buc Yt - Yt-1 = + t + ( -1)Yt-1 + Yt-1 V cú ủiu kin rng buc Yt - Yt-1 = + Yt-1 vi chui tng sn lng lng thc dựng cho kim ủnh nghim ủn v Dependent Variable: LT Method: Least Squares Date: 04/04/07 Time: 18:47 Sample(adjusted): 1988 2006 Included observations: 19 after adjusting endpoints Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob T 0.666534090831 0.333665070514 1.99761422376 0.0642280883021 LT(-1) -0.508143461881 0.252849483627 -2.00966778572 0.062809470429 -0.0527533126135 0.234578082281 -0.224885940326 0.825102866754 LT(-1) C 7.56117879404 3.10900384371 2.43202619686 0.0280123428126 R-squared 0.239274750985 Mean dependent var 1.16357894737 Adjusted R-squared 0.0871297011819 S.D dependent var 0.797969403887 S.E of regression 0.762413852112 F-statistic 1.57267522864 Sum squared resid 8.71912322839 Prob(F-statistic) 0.237457068005 Durbin-Watson stat 1.79191706786 Dependent Variable: LT Method: Least Squares Date: 04/04/07 Time: 18:53 Sample(adjusted): 1988 2006 Included observations: 19 after adjusting endpoints Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob -0.181346377582 0.232955892668 -0.778457996941 0.446999619988 LT(-1) C 1.37241464306 0.32593153975 4.21074512798 0.0005878344271 84 R-squared 0.0344199114689 Mean dependent var 1.16357894737 Adjusted R-squared -0.0223789172683 S.D dependent var 0.797969403887 S.E of regression 0.806848846315 Sum squared resid 11.0670860336 F-statistic 0.605996853001 Durbin-Watson stat 1.97785410827 Prob(F-statistic) 0.446999619988 PL-4.7: Kt qu chy chng trỡnh hi qui khụng cú ủiu kin rng buc Yt - Yt-1 = + t + ( -1)Yt-1 + Yt-1 Footer Page 157 of 258 Header Page 158 of 258 152 V cú ủiu kin rng buc Yt - Yt-1 = + Yt-1 vi chui cung urờ nc dựng cho kim ủnh nghim ủn v Dependent Variable: S Method: Least Squares Date: 04/04/07 Time: 21:35 Sample(adjusted): 1988 2006 Included observations: 19 after adjusting endpoints Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic T 16060.8582456 5281.76529298 3.0408125607 S(-1) -1.69065249783 0.567155966441 -2.98093046335 2.64851977247 0.850782808608 3.11303865766 S(-1) C -34687.0794358 54809.7890476 -0.632862852394 R-squared 0.521416774779 Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared 0.425700129734 S.D dependent var S.E of regression 92554.5295856 F-statistic Sum squared resid 128495114202 Prob(F-statistic) Durbin-Watson stat 1.54839067533 Prob 0.00825672986616 0.00932787052485 0.00712488525261 0.53635267554 46336.8421053 122131.676512 5.44750366603 0.00979342665226 Dependent Variable: S Method: Least Squares Date: 04/04/07 Time: 21:42 Sample(adjusted): 1988 2006 Included observations: 19 after adjusting endpoints Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob 0.374237471318 0.224332733172 1.66822498896 0.113583532801 S(-1) C 29335.864078 28603.5503424 1.02560219717 0.319452318997 R-squared 0.140675235556 Mean dependent var 46336.8421053 Adjusted R-squared 0.0901267200001 S.D dependent var 122131.676512 S.E of regression 116498.081774 F-statistic 2.78297461379 Sum squared resid 230720651968 Prob(F-statistic) 0.113583532801 Durbin-Watson stat 1.73004534154 PL-4.8: Kt qu chy chng trỡnh hi qui khụng cú ủiu kin rng buc Yt - Yt-1 = + t + ( -1)Yt-1 + Yt-1 V cú ủiu kin rng buc Yt - Yt-1 = + Yt-1 vi chui din tớch canh tỏc nụng nghip dựng cho kim ủnh nghim ủn v Dependent Variable: DT Method: Least Squares Date: 04/04/07 Time: 21:50 Sample(adjusted): 1988 2006 Included observations: 19 after adjusting endpoints Variable Coefficient Std Error T 446.330165635 125.892384385 Footer Page 158 of 258 t-Statistic Prob 3.5453309413 0.002937231962 Header Page 159 of 258 153 51 DT(-1) -1.35313740723 0.374529887306 -3.61289566758 0.002557139467 99 0.229683557999 0.252919365325 0.908129583927 0.378169220168 DT(-1) C 9562.14264332 2519.07573091 3.79589328181 0.001757927398 25 R-squared 0.571650254546 Mean dependent var 321.052631579 Adjusted R-squared 0.485980305455 S.D dependent var 641.104816676 S.E of regression 459.641167811 F-statistic 6.67270449688 Sum squared resid 3169050.04721 Prob(F-statistic) 0.004424984310 27 Durbin-Watson stat 2.12049378738 Dependent Variable: DT Method: Least Squares Date: 04/04/07 Time: 22:04 Sample(adjusted): 1988 2006 Included observations: 19 after adjusting endpoints Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob - 0.218328081137 -2.04951576933 0.0561670846052 DT(-1) 0.44746684517 C 471.778305744 154.191814014 3.05968451542 0.0070908522038 R-squared 0.19813268266 Mean dependent var 321.052631579 Adjusted R-squared 0.15096401693 S.D dependent var 641.104816676 S.E of regression 590.734163797 F-statistic 4.20051488872 Sum squared resid 5932436.48871 Prob(F-statistic) 0.0561670846052 Durbin-Watson stat 2.25289160481 PL-4.9: Kt qu chy chng trỡnh hi qui gia bin ph thuc lng nhp khu urờ v bin giỏ urờ dựng cho kim ủnh ủng tớch hp Dependent Variable: URE Method: Least Squares Date: 04/04/07 Time: 22:25 Sample: 1986 2006 Included observations: 21 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob P 189990.052465 114033.667184 1.66608736837 0.112097520841 C 839990.087764 266607.111179 3.15066647715 0.00526468448031 R-squared 0.127473668595 Mean dependent var 1233000 Adjusted R-squared 0.0815512301004 S.D dependent var 594090.817973 S.E of regression 569351.28945 F-statistic 2.77584711904 Sum squared resid 6.15905692517e+12 Prob(F-statistic) 0.112097520841 Durbin-Watson stat 0.574363072802 Footer Page 159 of 258 Header Page 160 of 258 154 PL-4.10: Kt qu chy chng trỡnh hi qui gia bin ph thuc lng nhp khu urờ v bin tng sn lng lng thc dựng cho kim ủnh ủng tớch hp Dependent Variable: URE Method: Least Squares Date: 04/04/07 Time: 22:28 Sample: 1986 2006 Included observations: 21 Variable Coefficient Std Error LT 50182.0198172 12860.9176019 C -184825.543629 R-squared 0.444847447906 Adjusted R-squared 0.415628892533 S.E of regression 454147.792813 Sum squared resid 3.91875413662e+12 Durbin-Watson stat 0.719484933218 t-Statistic Prob 3.90190042194 0.00095863969966 376640.018395 -0.490722001385 0.629242657621 Mean dependent var 1233000 S.D dependent var 594090.817973 F-statistic 15.2248269027 Prob(F-statistic) 0.00095863969967 PL-4.11: Kt qu chy chng trỡnh hi qui gia bin ph thuc lng nhp khu urờ v bin cung urờ nc dựng cho kim ủnh ủng tớch hp Dependent Variable: URE Method: Least Squares Date: 04/04/07 Time: 22:30 Sample: 1986 2006 Included observations: 21 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic S -0.112662777617 0.53881083211 -0.209095235101 C 1251908.09203 160711.091293 7.78980518371 R-squared 0.0022958127648 Adjusted R-squared -0.0502149339318 S.E of regression 608824.239514 Sum squared resid 7.04267213778e+12 Durbin-Watson stat 0.389288137942 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) Prob 0.836599368179 2.48322813792e07 1233000 594090.817973 0.0437208173417 0.836599368179 PL-4.12: Kt qu chy chng trỡnh hi qui gia bin ph thuc lng nhp khu urờ v bin din tớch canh tỏc NN dựng cho kim ủnh ủng tớch hp Dependent Variable: URE Method: Least Squares Date: 04/04/07 Time: 22:33 Sample: 1986 2006 Included observations: 21 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob DT 186.681855638 49.2522497384 3.79032138898 0.00123679338116 C -789386.769416 542924.299113 -1.45395365561 0.162279088764 R-squared 0.430567204577 Mean dependent var 1233000 Adjusted R-squared 0.40059705745 S.D dependent var 594090.817973 S.E of regression 459951.749877 F-statistic 14.3665362317 Footer Page 160 of 258 Header Page 161 of 258 155 Sum squared resid 4.01955663209e+12 Durbin-Watson stat 0.685558879846 Prob(F-statistic) 0.00123679338116 PL-4.13: Kt qu chy chng trỡnh hi qui ủ to chui tng sn lng LT Dependent Variable: LT Method: Least Squares Date: 04/05/07 Time: 11:19 Sample(adjusted): 1988 2006 Included observations: 19 after adjusting endpoints Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob LT(-1) 0.825657141102 0.242287992062 3.40775097468 0.00360078697023 LT(-2) 0.168854049453 0.24759316065 0.68198188112 0.505003900175 C 1.51287373105 0.769239071348 1.9667146241 0.0668082359981 R-squared 0.988919877783 Mean dependent var 29.3746258458 Adjusted R-squared 0.987534862506 S.D dependent var 7.43960747704 S.E of regression 0.830612684158 F-statistic 714.013696522 Sum squared resid 11.0386788973 Prob(F-statistic) 2.27172839583e-16 Durbin-Watson stat 1.99709208253 PL-4.14 Tỡnh hỡnh sn xut v nhp khu phõn bún theo s liu ca B NN&PTNN thỏng 1/2007 n v: Tn S Phõn bún cỏc Thc hin Thc hin Thc hin Uc TH KH 2008 TT loi 2004 2005 2006 2007 Phõn ủm urờ 2.063.780 1.874.000 1.720.328 1.720.000 1.700.000 - Sn xut 355.500 812.000 792.353 920.000 860.000 - Nhp khu 1.708.280 1.062.000 927.975 800.000 840.000 Phõn DAP 593.030 559.780 755.148 750.000 750.000 - Sn xut 100.000 - Nhp khu 593.030 559.780 755.148 750.000 650.000 Phõn NPK 2.000.000 2.171.330 2.148.412 2.250.000 2.500.000 - Sn xut 1.900.000 2.000.000 2.000.000 2.050.000 2.400.000 - Nhp khu 306.440 171.330 148.412 200.000 100.000 Phõn Kali 806.320 552.160 753.054 800.000 800.000 - Sn xut - Nhp khu 806.320 552.160 753.054 800.000 800.000 Phõn SA 665.140 731.590 734.196 750.000 750.000 - Sn xut - Nhp khu 665.140 731.590 734.196 750.000 750.000 Phõn lõn 1.320.000 1.322.000 1.197.669 1.420.000 1.430.000 - Sn xut 1.320.000 1.322.000 1.197.669 1.420.000 1.430.000 - Nhp khu 7.448.270 7.210.860 7,308,807 7.690.000 7.930.000 Tng cng Nm 2006: - Cú khong 200.000 tn urờ nhp tiu ngch t Trung Quc - Cú khong 802.331 tn NPK sn xut t cỏc liờn doanh v phng v 1.197.669 tn t cỏc ủn v ca B Cụng thng - Cú 618.800 tn urờ t Nh mỏy ủm Phỳ M v 173.553tn t Nh mỏy ủm H Bc Footer Page 161 of 258 ... CU URấ VIT NAM TRONG THI GIAN QUA 49 3.1 Thc trng tiờu dựng urờ Vit nam .49 3.2 Thc trng cung urờ Vit Nam .66 CHNG 4: XC NH HM CU NHP KHU URấ CA VIT NAM, D BO LNG... (USD/VN).P(VN)/P*(USD) (2-2) Trong ủú: - l t giỏ hi ủoỏi thc t - e l t giỏ hi ủoỏi danh ngha; - P l mc giỏ urờ ti Vit Nam (tớnh bng VND) v - P* l mc giỏ urờ ti nc ngoi nhp vo Vit Nam (tớnh bng USD) Khi... Tớnh cp thit ca ủ ti lun ỏn Sau 20 nm ủi mi di s lónh ủo ca ng Cng sn Vit Nam k t i hi ng ln th VI nm 1986 nn kinh t Vit Nam ủó thc s thay ủi v cht, ủi sng nhõn dõn ủc ci thin rừ rt, tng trng rt