Global Warming GLOBAL WARMING THE ISSUES Global Warming DEBATING L.H COLLIGAN GLOBAL WARMING Copyright © 2012 Marshall Cavendish Corporation Published by Marshall Cavendish Benchmark An imprint of Marshall Cavendish Corporation All rights reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of the copyright owner Request for permission should be addressed to the Publisher, Marshall Cavendish Corporation, 99 White Plains Road, Tarrytown, NY 10591 Tel: (914) 332-8888, fax: (914) 332-1888 Website: www.marshallcavendish.us This publication represents the opinions and views of the author based on L H Colligan’s personal experience, knowledge, and research The information in this book serves as a general guide only The author and publisher have used their best efforts in preparing this book and disclaim liability rising directly and indirectly from the use and application of this book Other Marshall Cavendish Offices: Marshall Cavendish International (Asia) Private Limited, New Industrial Road, Singapore 536196 • Marshall Cavendish International (Thailand) Co Ltd 253 Asoke, 12th Flr, Sukhumvit 21 Road, Klongtoey Nua, Wattana, Bangkok 10110, Thailand • Marshall Cavendish (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd, Times Subang, Lot 46, Subang Hi-Tech Industrial Park, Batu Tiga, 40000 Shah Alam, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia Marshall Cavendish is a trademark of Times Publishing Limited All websites were available and accurate when this book was sent to press Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Colligan, L H Global warming / L.H Colligan p cm — (Debating the issues) Summary: “Examines two sides of the global warming debate and whether or not human activities are causing it; defines global warming; explains the science of climate change, and its potential effects on the planet.”—Provided by the Publisher Includes bibliographical references and index ISBN 978-0-7614-4971-3 (print)—ISBN 978-1-60870-664-8 (ebook) Global warming—Juvenile literature I Title QC981.8.G56C58 2012 363.738’74—dc22 2010039299 Editor: Peter Mavrikis Publisher: Michelle Bisson Art Director: Anahid Hamparian Series design by Sonia Chaghatzbanian Photo research by Alison Morretta Front cover: Paul Souders/Getty Images Associated Press: NASA, 27; Stephanie Krell/Record-Courier, 30; Diana Haecker, 42; Jeff Gentner, 51; Toby Talbot, 52 Bridgeman Art Library: Yale Center for British Art/Paul Mellon Collection, 21 Getty Images: Bernhard Lang, 9; StockTrek, 12; Vin Morgan/AFP, 17; Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg, 24; Gordon Wiltsie, 26; David McNew, 34; Ashley Cooper/Visuals Unlimited, 36; U.S Geological Survey, 41; Bates Littlehales/National Geographic, 45; Paul Souders, 48; George Rose, 54 Nancy Sabato: 15, 38 NASA: Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 10 Superstock: age fotostock, 1, 2-3, 4-5, 6; Design Pics, 13; Science Faction, 18; Science and Society, 23, 29; Ambient Images, 46 Back cover: Mark S Wexler/Getty Images Printed in Malaysia (T) 135642 Chapter Is It Getting Hotter or Not? Chapter One Side: Human Activities Are Not Causing Global Warming 19 Chapter The Other Side: Human Activities Are the Main Cause of Global Warming 35 You Decide 49 Global Warming Debate Summary 56 Glossary 58 Find Out More 61 Index 63 Table of Contents Chapter Imagine that you are growing up on a central California farm fifty years from now Crops from the farm once traveled to customers all over the country, but not anymore Because of droughts (long dry spells), the consequent drying out of the soil, and the multiplication of agricultural pests, the land now grows barely enough food for your family Annual melting snows slowed to a trickle before you were born The rivers and reservoirs that watered your valley dried up, too The farm’s fruit trees burned in a wildfire that grew out of control during a severe drought several years ago When storms come, they are so intense that the water runs off and washes away valuable topsoil Your family is thinking of moving to Alaska or Canada Long winters are mainly a thing of the past up north Some northern areas now have the longest growing seasons in the world However, Canada and Alaska have plenty of problems, too Not only people are migrating northward Disease-causing insects that sicken people, animals, and plants have moved north as well Bark-eating beetles have killed huge numbers of trees, as have forest fires Droughts are always a threat in California, which receives little rainfall The state must depend on unpredictable snowmelt from the Sierra Nevada because rain is often scarce during the spring planting season IS IT GETTING HOTTER OR NOT? Chapter GLOBAL WARMING Most scientists say global warming has caused the terrible weather events in the climate zone where your family lives Many climate experts say that these problems could have been prevented when there was still time, back in the early twenty-first century Or imagine this future instead You are the same young person fifty years from now, but the farm you live on is thriving Before you were born, it went through a rough period, when California’s temperatures got so hot that the farm could not get the water it needed The farm survived, however, and became more productive than ever Here is what happened Plant scientists developed heat- and insect-resistant fruit trees and nut trees and other crops suitable for dry climates Your family was the first to try out the experimental plants These new crops began to flourish on all the farms in your valley Engineers also figured out new ways to capture, store, and recycle water People told stories about how hot it was during the first half of the twenty-first century Then people began to live in houses designed for coolness in summer and warmth in winter Solar (sun-powered) cooling and heating systems became so affordable that most houses had them With plenty of drought- and disease-resistant trees surrounding your house, the heat was not too hard to take In addition, the climate changed Average world temperatures started to drop a bit So what happened to global warming? It turned out that most scientists in the late twentieth century and the early twentyfi rst were wrong about what caused it Most scientists thought that The use of solar power in homes and power plants has been increasing about 40 percent a year in the last decade burning fossil fuels—oil, coal, and gas—had caused the earth to warm up However, a small number of skeptical scientists believed that natural events were increasing ocean and land temperatures Then natural events caused the earth to cool down again Could either of these two imaginary situations happen? What Is Global Warming? Global warming is not the local weather forecast, a summer heat wave, or a few warm winters Global warming is the rise in average land and ocean temperatures on the planet Earth Since about the mid–1800s, the worldwide average temperature has been going up—about 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit (1.4°F), or 0.8 degrees Celsius (0.8°C)—much of it after 1970 During that upward trend, many cold and warm periods have come and gone However, the warm extremes have come twice as often as the cold extremes In 2010, an environmental professor GLOBAL WARMING Learning about one small subject may help you make up your mind about the big subject of global warming Asking good questions and getting answers is another way to form an opinion How many experts are on each side of the debate? Which experts have done the most climate research? Whose experiments have received the widest study and acceptance? CLIMATE CRYSTAL BALLS “It is going to get warmer.” “No, it is going to get colder.” Climatologists, other scientists, and computer modelers have all made predictions about climate change Which ones came true? Which ones did not? In 1896, a Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius (1859–1927), was the first to predict that increased CO2 would cause a greenhouse effect and raise the earth’s surface temperatures in the next century Most climate scientists consider this prediction correct • From 1965 to 1979, seven scientific studies incorrectly predicted global cooling Forty-four studies correctly predicted the global warming that has taken place • In 1975, the authors of a Newsweek article incorrectly stated that the earth’s temperature had been dropping and predicted it would continue dropping In 2006, the magazine wrote that it had been “spectacularly wrong.” • In 1981, James Hansen, the head of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and some colleagues, made several long-range predictions about human-caused global warming in Science These scientists predicted increased warming in the 1980s, longer growing seasons, surface warming in the Arctic, and increased floods and droughts from the end of the twentieth century onward Most of their predictions have come true • The IPCC computer models incorrectly predicted Arctic ice loss of 2.5 percent a decade from 1953 to 2007 Actual ice loss for that period has been much higher, 7.8 percent, and is still climbing YOU DECIDE A science teacher or librarian can guide you to books and to websites that can help you find answers to these and other questions Global Warming and Everyday Life Sometimes it seems as if the debate about global warming concerns events in the distant past or the distant future What about now? UNDERGROUND BURIAL Since the 1980s, the Mountaineer power plant in West Virginia has been burning coal, an activity that The Mountaineer power plant in West Virginia is the first coal plant in the world to bury some of the carbon dioxide it produces sends tons of CO2 into the atmosphere Beginning in 2009, plant officials added brand-new structures near their old coal-burning smokestacks This system of scrubbers, wells, and pipelines began to bury some of the power plant’s CO2, in liquid form, about 8,000 feet (2,440 m) underground The liquid enters tiny holes in deep rocks and spreads through the nearby countryside Scientist skeptical about global warming theory have said that even should significant warming occur, people will come up with new technologies to deal with it The theory’s advocates have said that 51 GLOBAL WARMING the release of current levels of CO2 into the atmosphere needs to stop Burying CO2 might please both sides Do you think it is a good idea to bury CO2? How would you feel if this power plant were in your community? If CO2 got into the local water supply, would it pose a danger? Could underground pressure from CO2 set off earthquakes in an earthquake-prone area? Since less than percent of the power plant’s CO2 will be stored underground, is the high expense worth the unknown risks? TURNING OVER NEW LEAVES Fall is the time when tourists head for the New England hills to see the area’s trees and foliage turn brilliant shades of red, yellow, and brown Innkeepers all over New England are worried about the disappointing “leaf peeping” seasons they have experienced in the last few years Recently, the area’s trees have not Maple syrup production has been falling in many syrupproducing states as warming temperatures shorten the season of cold nights that must precede warm days to produce syrup YOU DECIDE been nearly as colorful as in the past “The leaves fall off without ever becoming orange or yellow or red,” Barry Rock, a forestry professor at the University of New Hampshire, said in 2007 “They just go from green to brown.” Cold nights start the process that changes leaves from green to brilliant yellows and reds Except for one year during the period 2000– 2007, northern Vermont temperatures have been warmer than average, especially at night So the leaf-peeping season has been running longer and later, and the colors seem duller One Vermont innkeeper, Amie Emmons, said: “It’s very concerning if you think the business could start to be affected.” Have there been other warm periods in the past associated with “dull” fall foliage? Have there been other dull fall foliage periods that took place during cool, rainy, or dry periods? Is it possible that air pollution or “acid rain” blowing in from other states has affected New England tree colors, and the cause is not global warming? Is it too soon to generalize about fall foliage in New England and larger climate patterns and global warming? 53 GLOBAL WARMING FRUITS AND NUTS Some fruit and nut growers have noted that high California temperatures are affecting their crops Fruit trees and nut trees need warm, sunny weather Orchards also need a certain number of chilly nighttime hours, or “chill hours,” to be productive By 2009, chill hours in central California had dropped by 30 percent since 1950 Higher temperatures make things harder for California’s apple, peach, and cherry growers Do growers of oranges, grapefruits, lemons, and limes benefit from warmer temperatures and fewer frosts? Have there been similar warm periods in the past? If there were, what, if anything, did the fruit and nut growers about them? Fruit-bearing plants are suffering in some areas where there are not enough of the chilly nights that the fruits need to develop Warmer temperatures, though, are making it possible to grow grapes and other fruits in areas that are not as cold as they once were YOU DECIDE Meteorologists who follow weather events; scientists who study overall climate; marine and animal biologists; geologists who study the earth’s formation; engineers who design weather-related projects; forest rangers, farmers, and environmentalists—these and other experts can be found on both sides of the global warming debate Might one of these expert groups include you someday? WHAT DO YOU THINK? Are there benefits to a warmer planet? Are you willing to sacrifice your own comforts for the sake of future generations who may suffer if the alarming global warming predictions are true? Should governments spend trillions of dollars in an uncertain attempt to reduce CO2 greenhouse gases, or should other approaches to solving climate-related problems be explored? Are there things ordinary, everyday people can to produce less CO2? Should they them? 55 GLOBAL WARMING DEBATE SUMMARY Human Activities Are Not the Cause of Global Warming • The 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit (0.8 degrees Celsius) rise in Earth’s temperature since the 1800s is the result of natural forcings— naturally released greenhouse gases, the sun, Earth’s orbit, ocean currents, clouds, and others • The sun’s radiation is causing the rise in Earth’s temperature • The ocean is a massive carbon sink that has always been able to absorb CO2 • Changes in ocean currents may be affecting Earth’s temperature • Climate models are inaccurate in predicting weather and climate change • A warmer world can be an improved world where more food crops can be grown in colder zones • Human technology, such as better ways to store water, cool buildings, or raise heat-tolerant crops, will meet the challenges of a warmer Earth • Many experts not agree that human-generated CO2 buildup is causing an increase in Earth’s temperatures 56 Human Activities Are the Cause of Global Warming • Earth’s temperatures began to rise exactly when CO2 levels began to rise There is measurable evidence of more human-generated CO2 in Earth’s atmosphere, oceans, coral plants, and other organisms within the ocean, ice cores, and mud sediments • The sun has actually been stable, even slightly cooler, since the 1970s • Earth’s oceans are at their highest recorded temperature levels and are absorbing such excessive quantities of CO2 that marine life is being severely stressed • Ocean currents are changing because massive quantities of fresh water released from melting land ice are changing ocean salt levels • A look at historical climate models that forecast global warming shows that most forecasts predicted and matched the present temperatures • Much of the land in the far northern areas of the planet is tundra, which is not suitable for growing crops because it is rocky and has short periods of sunlight • Sophisticated technology was inadequate in dealing with the massive deepwater oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010 and the Japanese nuclearplant explosion in 2011 • The majority of organizations of climate scientists around the world assert that global warming is caused by human-generated CO2 57 GLOBAL WARMING Glossary atmosphere—The protective layer of gases over the earth average—The mean, or typical, level of things in a group cap and trade—A governmental system requiring companies that excessively pollute to buy credits from companies that pollute less or not at all carbon—A chemical element found in all living organisms, or forms of life carbon dioxide (CO2)—A gaseous compound of carbon and oxygen produced when organic matter dies, burns, or decays climate—The average weather or the pattern of weather of a given region as measured over an extended period of time climate engineers—Designers of projects to deliberately change the earth’s climate climate forcings—Natural events that shape short- and long-term weather conditions climatologist—A scientist who studies climate and weather patterns deforestation—The process or action of clearing a forest, often by the cutting or burning of trees droughts—Dry conditions resulting from long periods with little or no rain environmentalists—People who wish to protect and preserve the natural world (the environment), often through advocacy of pollution control evaporate—With reference to water, to pass from the liquid to the gaseous (vapor) state 58 GLOSSARY feedback loop—A condition in nature resembling a closed circuit; that is, one where a series of linked events work either to amplify or to reduce the effects of a natural process fossil fuels—Liquid, solid, or gaseous organic (carbon-based) substances, including gas, oil, and coal, created by the decay of dead organisms dating from prehistoric times glaciers—Large, layered accumulations of compressed ice and snow usually found on mountains or in their valleys global warming—The warming of the earth’s overall climate greenhouse effect—The warming of Earth’s atmosphere by gases that trap the heat produced by sunlight and everything on the earth that generates heat greenhouse gases—Heat-trapping gases, such as water vapor, methane, and carbon dioxide ice cores—Ice samples taken from thick blocks of ancient ice An ice core shows weather conditions at the time the ice was formed ice sheets—Masses of ice resting entirely on land ice shelves—Wide, thick floating sheets of ice attached on one side to land indicators—In reference to climate, signs of change migrating—Moving from one area to another ocean currents—Steady, riverlike flows of ocean water They are affected by the orbits of Earth and the Moon, by temperature, by the sun and the winds, and by the salt content of the oceans themselves orbit—The path that Earth takes as it revolves around the sun 59 GLOBAL WARMING permafrost—Frozen soil in the polar areas polar—Located at or referring to the northern (Arctic) or southern (Antarctic) geographical poles precipitation—Moisture contained in snow, rain, hail, or water vapor renewable energy—Energy in a form that is not depleted through its use Energy from the wind, sun, or water is renewable energy sea level—The level of the sea, especially in relation to the land skeptical—Marked by the tendency to question or doubt opinions solar—Relating to the sun, especially to the sun’s energy species—A biological term for a closely related group of animals or plants tree ring—The layer of wood a tree produces in a single year trend—A pattern or line of movement in a general direction water vapor—Water in the atmosphere in the form of a gas Water vapor may take the form of clouds, fumes, smoke, or mist weather—Local temperature, wind, and precipitation conditions at a particular time 60 FIND OUT MORE Find Out More Books Alley, Richard B Earth: The Operator’s Manual New York: W.W Norton & Company, 2011 Hall, Julie A Hot Planet Needs Cool Kids: Understanding Climate Change and What You Can Do about It Bainbridge Island, WA: Green Goat Books, 2007 Johnson, Rebecca Investigating Climate Change: Scientists’ Search for Answers in a Warming World Discovery! series Minneapolis: Twenty-first Century Books, 2009 Lawson, Nigel An Appeal to Reason: A Cool Look at Climate Change London: Gerald Duckworth, 2009 Lomborg, Bjorn Smart Solutions to Climate Change: Comparing Costs and Benefits Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2010 Maslin, Mark Global Warming: A Very Short Introduction New York: Oxford University Press, 2009 Thornhill, Jan This Is My Planet: The Kids’ Guide to Global Warming Toronto: Maple Tree Press, 2007 Websites Real Climate: Climate Science from Climate Scientists www.realclimate.org/ 61 GLOBAL WARMING Organizations National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is part of the United States Department of Commerce Its mission is to study oceanic and atmospheric conditions NOAA provides weather forecasts, severe storm warnings, and results of ongoing climate research National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 1401 Constitution Avenue NW, Room 5128 Washington, D.C 20230 301-713-4000 http://www.noaa.gov/ The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) is a group made up of thousands of climate scientists Its aim is to gather worldwide research about global warming and its environmental, social, and economic impact IPCC Secretariat c/o World Meteorological Organization 7bis Avenue de la Paix, C.P 2300 CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland Phone : +41-22-730-8208/54/84 http://www.ipcc.ch/ 62 INDEX Index Page numbers in boldface are illustrations Ice Age, Little, 20, 22, 37 ice cores, 17 ice shrinkage, 24–25, 39–40 Alaska, 31, 36, 36, 41, 42 animal life, 26, 29–30, 43–44 Bering Glacier, 41 land use, 30 La Niña, 11 Little Ice Age, 20, 22, 37 carbon dioxide (CO2), 14–16, 36–40, 51, 51–52 climate change, historical, 17 change, natural, 11–14, 21–33, 37 forcings, 11–14, 21–33, 37 indicators, 35–36 predictions, 50 trackers, 44 clouds, 23–24, 38–39 cloud ships, 32 coal plant, 51, 51–52 coastline loss, 40, 42 magnolia trees, 29 migration, Mountaineer power plant, 51–52, 51 New England, 52, 52–53 nut trees, 54 ocean currents, 23 sea levels, 25, 27, 40 temperatures, 25, 27, 38, 38 drought, 6, 7, 28–29, 41 Petermann Glacier, 27 plant life, 29, 30, 43–44 polar bears, 26, 30 precipitation, 17 Earth’s orbit, 11, 56 El Niño, 11 foliage season, 52, 52–53 fossils fuels, 14–16 fruit trees, 54 sea levels, 25, 27, 40 storms, 41 sun, 11, 22, 37 Svalbard glaciers, 48 glaciers, 27, 41, 48 global land-ocean temperature index, 10 global warming debate summary, 56–57 definition, 9–10 solutions, 31–32, 45–47 greenhouse gases, 12–16 Greenland, 27 Thames River, 21 tree rings, 17 tropical storms, 27–28 turtle hatchlings, 45 volcanoes, 11, 12 water vapor, 14, 23–24, 38–39 wildfires, 29, 41–42 human impact, 12–13, 15–16 hurricanes, 27, 27–28 63 GLOBAL WARMING About the Author L H Colligan writes in many genres, from study skills and activity books to children’s fiction She lives in western Massachusetts, a beautiful place with a varied climate During the cold, snowy winter months, she enjoys cross-country skiing and cooking hearty stews and soups She copes with the summer’s heat by seeking the shelter of big shade trees and the refreshment of coffee ice cream Concerned about global warming, she bikes and walks much more than she drives She hopes, as many global warming skeptics do, that humans will successfully adapt to future climate changes 64 .. .Global Warming GLOBAL WARMING THE ISSUES Global Warming DEBATING L.H COLLIGAN GLOBAL WARMING Copyright © 2012 Marshall Cavendish Corporation... blocks the sun’s heat and lessens the effects of global warming ONE SIDE: HUMAN ACTIVITIES ARE NOT CAUSING GLOBAL WARMING Chapter GLOBAL WARMING GLOBAL COOLING AND THE LITTLE ICE AGE For hundreds... Side: Human Activities Are Not Causing Global Warming 19 Chapter The Other Side: Human Activities Are the Main Cause of Global Warming 35 You Decide 49 Global Warming Debate Summary 56 Glossary 58