International Monetary Flows of Non-Declared Origin

Frank G Madsen Queens’ College University of Cambridge International Monetary Flows of Non-Declared Origin This dissertation is submitted to the University of Cambridge to Fulfil the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy April 2008 Ambrogio Lorenzetti, Effetti del Buon Governo Siena, Palazzo Pubblico Sala dei Nove 1337-1340 Declaration This dissertation is the result of my own work and includes nothing, which is the outcome of work done in collaboration Chapter 3, “Complexity, TOC and Terrorism”, was presented in an embryonic form at the ISA conference in Chicago, USA, March 2007 Chapter 4, “Organised Crime”, is the further elaboration of a chapter of the same title published in 2007 in the Oxford Handbook on the United Nations Statement of Length The dissertation does not exceed the word limit of 80,000 words Fieldwork Thailand (money laundering); Indonesia and Burma (deforestation); New York (US money supply); Washington DC and Fort Worth, Texas (Organised Crime linked to terrorist funding); Australia (Sydney, (APG) and Canberra (money laundering, South Pacific); and Rome, Italy (Chinese organised crime) Contact Frank.Madsen@cantab.net Abstract Through an analysis of the presence and nature of international monetary flows of nondeclared origin and their relation to deviant knowledge, the thesis determines that both terrorism and organised crime are nurtured by a constant trickle from minor sources rather than by large financial transfers; and that anti-money laundering provisions are misapplied, taken too far, too expensive, and incapable of demonstrating their effectiveness In lieu of more traditional policy recommendations, the thesis develops a complexity-theory based intelligence function, capillary intelligence, to improve the present information-gathering systems and generate consistent and context-relevant intelligence for the consideration of policy-makers The intelligence function takes into account also the concept of self-organised criticality The thesis fully adheres to the principle that efficiently applied intelligence-led approaches for detection of organised crime are demonstrably superior to a “follow the money” approach An extended concept of deviant knowledge is developed and five methodological techniques employed: Complexity theory, network theory, selforganised criticality, scaling theory, and intelligence treatment The thesis is multidisciplinary and calls on contributions from International Law, Economics, Criminal Justice Studies, and Governance and Ethics Its approach is illustrative and fits Baudrillard’s 1981 methodological principles known as bricolage Using five methodologies and six major case studies, the thesis reaches four conclusions First, the rapid expansion in the currency component of the US money supply (M1) has no domestic explanation and can best be explained by an increase in overseas illegal traffics of various sorts Second, terrorism and major organised crime are, for a large part, nurtured by a constant trickle of funds originating from minor crime, such as, respectively, smuggling of tobacco product and retail fencing, and sale of counterfeit luxury goods Third, calculation of the cost of the application of antimoney laundering shows these to be cost-inefficient, apart from being highly intrusive The thesis’ calculations as well as prior literature makes it certain that such provisions, although inefficient, are enforced in a forceful exemplification of the deviant knowledge concept Fourth, the thesis demonstrates the importance of organised crime in resource depletion and emphasises the nefarious consequences of such criminal behaviour, in particular as regards deforestation, since organised crime can apply the necessary pressure on the local population—in conjunction with extensive corruption of police or military personnel—and provide the managerial expertise to have the trees felled, transported internationally by ship and sold in another country often with false documentation as to the origins of the forest product In a final case study, the tragic concept of resource curse is considered, in casu the island of Bougainville, PNG Contents Acknowledgements Introduction General Remarks The Thesis Argument Methodological Considerations Taxonomical Considerations A Main Case Study A Road Map of the Thesis The Centre Chapter Deviant Knowledge and Governance 1.0 Introduction 1.1 Foucault, Habermas 1.1.1 Michel Foucault 1.1.2 Jürgen Habermas 1.2 Governance 1.2.1 Transnational Economic Enterprises 1.3 Deviant Knowledge 1.3.1 Counter-Intuition Chapter Capital Movements, Globalisation, and Money Supply 2.0 Introduction 2.1 Globalisation and Crime 2.1.1 Foreign Direct Investment 2.1.2 International Trade 2.1.3 Gross Domestic Product, GDP 2.1.4 Population 2.2 Economics and Organised Crime 2.2.1 The Scope of the Problem 2.3 The Money Supply 2.3.1 Measuring Expatriate Currency 2.3.1 §1 The Shipments Proxy Method 2.3.1 §2 The Biometric Method 2.3.2 Evaluation of the Results 2.4 Errors and Omissions Chapter Complexity, TOC, and Terrorism 3.0 Introduction 3.1 Intelligence 3.2 Complexity: At the Edge of Chaos 3.3 Networks 3.4 The Sand Grain Complexity Representation 3.4.1 Notations & Rules 3.4.2 The Initial Situation 3.4.3 Initial Status Plus One Step: Reactions 3.4.4 The Global Event 3.4.5 Self-Organised Criticality 3.4.6 Practical Applications 3.4.7 Conclusions Annexes to Chapter Mustafa Setmariam Nasar Nasar: Packets of Information Chapter Transnational Organised Crime 4.0 Introduction 4.1 History and Development of Concept of Organised Crime 4.2 Transnational and International Criminal Law 4.3 The 'Organised' in Organised Crime 4.3.1 The Management Talents of Organised Crime 4.4 Illicit Trafficking in Licit Product 4.4.1 Cigarettes Smuggling 4.4.2 Cigarette Smuggling and Organised Crime 4.4.3 Law Suits Against Multinational Tobacco Companies 4.4.4 Counterfeiting of Brand Cigarette Product 4.4.5 Cigarette Smuggling and Terrorism 4.4.6 WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control 4.4.7 Concluding Remarks 4.5 Organised Crime and Terrorism 4.6 Contemporary Debate and Future Trends Chapter Money Laundering 5.0 Introduction 5.1 Money Laundering: A Brief History 5.1.1 The United States 5.1.1 §1 Criminal Liability of the US Banking Community 5.1.1 §2 Correspondent Banks 5.1.2 The International Scene 5.1.2 §1 Thailand’s AMLO 5.1.2 §2 Thailand's AMLO and Illegal Logging 5.1.2 §3 The Asia/Pacific Group on Money Laundering 5.1.2 §4 HCBC Money Laundering in the United Arab Emirates 5.1.2 §5 The Russian Factor 5.2 Money Laundering and the South Pacific 5.2.1 Vanuatu 5.2.2 The Cook Islands 5.2.3 Western Samoa 5.2.4 Tonga 5.2.5 Niue 5.2.6 The Marshall Islands 5.2.7 Fiji Islands 5.2.8 Nauru 5.3 Money Laundering: Cost 5.3.1 Introduction 5.3.2 Cost of US Anti-Money Laundering Regime 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 Money Laundering: Effectiveness Operation Green Quest Money Laundering: Financing of Terrorism 5.6.1 Intellectual Property Crime Summing Up Annexes Map of the South Pacific US Inter-Agency Evaluation of Tax Havens and Money Laundering Money Laundering Regimes: Timeline Chapter Abuse of the Environment 6.0 Introduction 6.1 Illegal Logging: An Organised Criminal Activity? 6.1.1 Organised Crime 6.2 The Mechanism of the Trade 6.2.1 Transborder Trade 6.2.2 Corruption 6.3 Trafficking in Illicit Timber 6.4 Conflict Timber 6.4.1 Concept and Definition 6.5 Commodity Abuse and Conflict 6.5.1 Conflicts 6.5.1 §1 The Number, Length, and Character of Commodity Abuse Conflicts 6.5.2 Commodity Abuse in Conflicts 6.5.3 Conflict for Commodity Abuse 6.5.3 §1 The Scope of the Problem 6.5.3 §2 Baluchistan 6.5.3 §3 Coltan 6.5.4 Conflict from Commodity Abuse 6.5.5 Resource Abuse and Security 6.6 Traffic in Arms and Illicit Logging Chapter Mineral Abuse: A Case Study in Bougainville 7.0 Introduction 7.1 Natural Resources 7.2 The Secession 7.3 Sarei v Rio Tinto Annexes Timeline: Bougainville Rio Tinto Corporate Structure Sarei v 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