Module 6 Decision Making

Module 6: Decision Making Zaid Ali Alsagoff zaid.alsagoff@gmail.com Should You Ask? Sir, why is my coursework marks so low? I deserve higher marks Hehehe! Which Mobile Phone should I buy? What are the things you consider before making a decision? What should I wear for class (or work) today? What are the things you consider before making a decision? Module 6: Decision Making What is Decision Making? Decision Making Tools Barriers to Good Decision Making Decision Making Process "No sensible decision can be made any longer without taking into account not only the world as it is, but the world as it will be ." -  Isaac Asimov 6.1 What is Decision Making? Decision making is the cognitive process leading to the selection of a course of action among alternatives Every decision making process produces a final choice choice It can be an action or an opinion opinion It begins when we need to something but we not know what Therefore, decision making is a reasoning process which can be rational or irrational, and can be based on explicit assumptions or tacit assumptions Examples: Shopping, deciding what to eat, What to wear, when to sleep, etc Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_making “Successful leaders have the courage to take action while others hesitate.” - John C Maxwell 6.2 Barriers to Good Decision Making Hasty - Making quick decisions without having much thought Narrow - Decision making is based on very limited information Scattered - Our thoughts in making decisions are disconnected or disorganized Fuzzy - Sometimes, the lack of clarity on important aspects of a decision causes us to overlook certain important considerations For an explanation of the logical processes behind some of these barriers refer to Module (Fallacies) Fallacies and Module (Section - Barriers Thinking Barriers to Critical Critical Thinking) 6.3 Decision Making Process Steps Tips Define the decision clearly  A lot of decision making goes wrong at the starting point  the more specific your definition of the decision is to made, the clearer will be your analysis and the likelihood of success Consider all the possible choices  Successful decision makers explore all of the possible choices of the situation  In fact many of the less obvious choices turn out to be the most effective ones Gather all relevant information and evaluate all the pros and cons of each possible choice  In many cases, we may lack sufficient information to make an informed decision  Analyze the advantages and disadvantages of each choice Select the choice that seems to best meet the needs of the situation  Synthesize all what you learned in previous steps and make a conclusion that you believe to be your “best” choice Implement a plan of action and then monitor the results, making necessary adjustments  Once you have selected your best choice, you need to develop and implement a specific and concrete plan of action  As you begin taking the steps in your plan, you will discover that adjustments need to be made “Because I'm thinking in a broader way, I feel like I am able to make better decisions.” - Takafumi Horie 6.4 Decision Making Tools Tools to facilitate better decisions: CoRT (Module 2) SWOT ANALYSIS (Next) SIX THINKING HATS (Module 7) DECISION MATRIX FORCE FIELD ANALYSIS ISHIKAWA DIAGRAM MIND MAPPING SOCRATIC QUESTIONING I can study these tools on my own Click! More  MyCoted + Mind Tools + Creativity Web Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats 6.4.1 SWOT Analysis SWOT analysis is a great technique for identifying your Strengths and Weaknesses and study any Opportunities and Threats you face It is also a powerful strategic planning tool used to evaluate a project or in a business venture or in any other situation of an organization or individual requiring a decision in pursuit of an objective It involves monitoring the marketing environment internal and external to the organization or individual Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SWOT_Analysis 6.4.1 SWOT Analysis – Strategic Use Orienting SWOTs to An Objective - If SWOT analysis does not start with defining a desired end state or objective, it runs the risk of being useless If a clear objective has been identified, SWOT analysis can be used to help in the pursuit of that objective In this case, SWOTs are: Strengths Weaknesses Attributes of the organization that are helpful to achieving the objective Attributes of the organization that are harmful to achieving the objective External conditions that are helpful to achieving the objective External conditions that are harmful to achieving the objective Opportunities Threats Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SWOT_Analysis 6.4.1 SWOT Analysis – Creative Use Creative Use of SWOTs – If the objective seems attainable, the SWOTs are used as inputs to the creative generation of possible strategies, by asking (usually in groups) and answering each of the following four questions, many times: Strengths How can we Use each Strength? Weaknesses How can we Stop each Weakness? Opportunities How can we Exploit each Opportunity? Threats How can we Defend against each Threat? Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SWOT_Analysis 6.4.1 SWOT Analysis – Internal and External Factors The aim of any SWOT analysis is to identify the key internal and external factors that are important to achieving the objective SWOT analysis groups key pieces of information into two main categories: Strengths Internal Factors  Organization Weaknesses Opportunities External Factors  External Environment Threats Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SWOT_Analysis 6.4.1 SWOT Analysis – Errors to Be Avoided Conducting a SWOT analysis before defining and agreeing upon an objective (a desired end state) SWOTs should not exist in the abstract They can exist only with reference to an objective Opportunities external to the company are often confused with strengths internal to the company They should be kept separate SWOTs are sometimes confused with possible strategies SWOTs are descriptions of conditions, while possible strategies define actions Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SWOT_Analysis Group Activity Break into groups of – Identify a potential product/service to invest in (e.g buying a car), or business project/venture to pursue Do a SWOT analysis to identify the key internal and external factors that are important to consider (refer to the template) Assess the findings, and make a decision Example:  Imagine you want to assess whether to study at UNITAR or not Do a SWOT analysis, assess and then make a decision  Identify a potential product/service/project/venture to invest or pursue 15 Do a SWOT analysis, assess, and then make a decision Document your SWOT analysis findings in the template provided 15 Group presentation & discussion The Group leader must submit their findings in hard-copy or soft-copy format to the lecturer before or during the next class Summary 6.1 What is Decision Making? Decision making is the cognitive process leading to the selection of a course of action among alternatives 6.2 Barriers to Good Decision Making Hasty, Narrow, Scattered and Fuzzy decision making 6.3 Decision Making Process 6.4 Decision Making Tools Define the decision clearly Consider all the possible choices Gather all relevant information and evaluate all the pros and cons of each possible choice Select the choice that seems to best meet the needs of the situation Implement a plan of action and then monitor the results, making necessary adjustments  CoRT  SWOT Analysis  Six Thinking Hats  Decision Matrix  Etc Any Questions? The End References Online Resources Courseware - Module 4: Decision Making http://cw.unitar.edu.my/ugb2013/c4/index.htm Decision Making: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_making SWOT Analysis: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SWOT_Analysis SWOT Tutorial: http://www.nelh.nhs.uk/folio/mchip/swot.pps SWOT Templates: http://www.businessballs.com/swotanalysisfreetemplate.htm Teacher in Bad Mood: http://www.sbac.edu/~tpl/clipart/Signs%20and%20Symbols/danger%200 2.jpg Punk: http://www.rarepunk.com/images/punkrocker2.jpg Siti Nurhaliza: http://i31.photobucket.com/albums/c369/bukaninsanbiasa/ctmelayumera h.jpg Angry Teacher: http://www.webweaver.nu/clipart/img/education/angryteacher.gif Contact Details Zaid Ali Alsagoff UNIVERSITI TUN ABDUL RAZAK 16-5, Jalan SS 6/12 47301 Kelana Jaya Selangor Darul Ehsan Malaysia E-mail: zaid.alsagoff@gmail.com Tel: 603-7627 7238 Fax: 603-7627 7246