Location choice model for campus parking

LOCATION CHOICE MODEL FOR CAMPUS PARKING ZHOU JUN (B.Eng.) NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE 2003 LOCATION CHOICE MODEL FOR CAMPUS PARKING ZHOU JUN (B.Eng.) A THESIS SUBMITTED FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ENGINEERING DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE 2003 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to give my sincere gratefulness to my supervisor, Associate Professor Chin Hoong Chor for his invaluable advice, patient guidance and kind encouragement throughout my master study I would also like to thank Mdm Chong Wei Leng and Mdm Theresa, who helped me to collect the survey data and provided me with great assistance and convenience in many ways These thanks are also extended to the staff participated in the data collection, who are Mr Farouk, Mr Martin and Mr Goh Special thanks are given to Mr Foong, Mr Shakil, Mr Kamal, Ms Sudeshna, Mr.Kumala, Ms Xing Zhao and Ms Yan Lin for their nice company and help during the study period The National University of Singapore i TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS …… i TABLE OF CONTENTS…… ii SUMMARY ………………………………………………………….…… …… v LIST OF FIGURES ……………………………………………….…… ………vii LIST OF TABLES …………………………………………… ….…… …… viii CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background of the study ……….………………………….…… .1 1.2 Parking facilities and price structure at NUS…………………………6 1.3 Objectivity and scope of the study ……………………….…….… 1.4 Outline of the thesis …………………………………………………9 CHAPTER TWO: METHODOLOGY 2.1 Introduction …………………………… …….……… ……… … 11 2.2 Model selection………………………….….….……………… ……12 2.3 Model development …………………….….…………….……… 14 2.4 Model results and analysis ……………….…….……………….… 15 2.5 Model validation and application ……….…………….….………….16 2.6 Summary .…………………………………………… ….…….……16 CHAPTER THREE: CHOICE THEORY AND MODEL SELECTION 3.1 Introduction …………………………………………………………17 3.2 Choice theory……………………………… …………………… 18 3.3 Discrete choice model …………………………………………… 20 3.3.1 Multinomial logit model ………………………………… 21 3.3.2 Nested logit model ……………………………………… 22 3.3.3 Multinomial probit model ……………………………… 25 The National University of Singapore ii Table of contents 3.3.4 Binary logit model and binary probit model……………… 26 3.4 Model selection………………………………… ……………….…27 3.5 Summary ………………………………… …………………… 28 CHAPTER FOUR: MODEL DEVELOPMENT 4.1 Introduction ………………………………… …………………….30 4.2 Model specification………………………… ………………… .31 4.2.1 Structure of binary logit model……… …………………… 31 4.2.2 Explanatory variables.……………………………………….32 4.2.2.1 Review of factors in parking choice studies…………32 4.2.2.2 Attributes selected in this study…………………… 33 4.2.2.3 The explanatory variables……………………….… 37 4.2.3 Utility function …………………………………………… 37 4.2.3.1 Mathematical form of the utility function……….… 37 4.2.3.2 Specification of the utility function………….………39 4.2.4 Choice set …………………………………… …… ………41 4.3 Model estimation …………………………………………….………41 4.4 Elasticity of logit model……………………………………………….43 4.5 Model evaluation …………………………………….……….…… .44 4.5.1 Informal goodness-of-fit index……………… ……….…….44 4.5.2 The overall test of fit ………………………………… …….46 4.5.3 Informal test of the coefficient estimates….………….…… 46 4.5.4 Hit ratio (or % right)…………………………………………47 4.6 Model aggregation …………………………………………… …… 48 4.7 Survey ………………………………………………………… … 49 4.8 4.7.1 Survey venue and time………………… ……………….…49 4.7.2 Survey method…………………………………………… 49 4.7.3 Survey sample……………………………….………………50 Summary………………………………………………….…………51 CHAPTER FIVE: PARKING LOCATION CHOICE MODEL 5.1 Introduction …………………………………………………….…….53 5.2 Results and analysis of parking choice survey …………….………54 The National University of Singapore iii Table of contents 5.2.1 Parking facilities characteristics…………………….………56 5.2.2 Socioeconomic characteristics ……………………… …….60 5.3 Binary logit model estimation results …….…….…………….…… 63 5.4 Model validation …….………………………….……….………….67 5.5 Model interpretation ….……………………….……….……………69 5.6 Summary …………….……………………….….……………… 75 CHAPTER SIX: MODEL APPLICATION 6.1 Introduction ……………… ………………………….………… 76 6.2 Model application ………….………….………….…… ………… 76 6.3 6.2.1 Change of parking rates……… …… ………………… 79 6.2.2 Change of shuttle bus service……….….… …… 6.2.3 Change of the supply of fringe parks…… … 6.2.4 Combination of different measures…….…… ……… ….82 6.2.5 Suggestions………………………….………… …… …….83 Summary ………………………………………… … ……….80 ………… 81 …… … 83 CHAPTER SEVEN: CONCLUSIN AND DISCUSSION 7.1 Discussion ……………………………………………………………84 7.2 Conclusion ……………………… ………………………………… 85 REFERENCES APPENDICES The National University of Singapore iv Summary SUMMARY With the rising of vehicle trips to the campus of National University of Singapore (NUS), insufficiency of parking facilities within the campus may become a serious problem To alleviate this problem, NUS administration tries to attract more infrequent drivers (normally non-season car park users) to use the car parks at the fringe of the campus So there is a need to understand the parking choice behavior on campus The objective of this study is to build a probabilistic model to explain the parking location choice behavior in NUS campus and examine the effects on parking choice of personal socioeconomic characteristics and parking facility characteristics Binary logit (BL) model is selected as the analytical tool in this study Two alternatives as free-of-charge car park and charged car park are defined in this model Twelve car parks are involved in this study, for they are designated for the non-season car park users To calibrate this model, a revealed preference (RP) survey on NUS campus was conducted in 2002 In the end, a total of 257 samples were collected Five variables out of fifteen are proven to be significant in the BL model Walking distance and parking price are the most important factors in the choice behavior During the process of model validation, the prediction results of parking vehicles at different car parks coincide with the observation data very well National University of Singapore v Summary It is found that the probability of choosing charged car park will decrease by 11% with an increase of S$ in parking fee per day, holding all other variables at their means The parking cost elasticity is -0.485 for the alternative of charged car park The value of walking distance is equal to S$25.3 per hour in this study To show the usefulness of the choice model, a specific example of model application is provided after the validation of model It shows that the usage of free-of-charge car parks will increase by 23.12% with two times of present parking rate, while it will increase to 65.8% with the combined measure of decreasing minutes on waiting for and taking on the shuttle bus Also, a general suggestion to reduce the usage of parking facilities in core area in NUS campus is proposed based on these predictions National University of Singapore vi LIST OF FIGURE Figure 1.1 Location of the car parks in NUS Figure 5.1 Cumulative curve of parking duration at free-of-charge and charged car parks Figure 5.2 Cumulative curve of walking distance at free-of-charge and charged car parks Figure 5.3 Validation of location choice model Figure 5.4 Probabilities of choosing free-of-charge car parks at different parking duration Figure 6.1 Application of the parking location choice model National University of Singapore vii LIST OF TABLE Table 1.1 Capacities, target users, names and charges of individual car parks at NUS Table 4.1 Specification of utility function for two alternatives Table 4.2 Parking choice survey sample Table 5.1 A descriptive profile of the relevant influences in parking choice survey Table 5.2 Parking duration distribution at free and charged car parks Table 5.3 Walk distance distribution at free and charged car parks Table 5.4 Relationship between walking distance and status Table 5.5 Relationship between walking distance and gender Table 5.6 Relationship between walking distance and age Table 5.7 Relationship between parking location and status Table 5.8 Relationship between parking location and gender Table 5.9 Relationship between parking location and age Table 5.10 Correlation of salary and parking location Table 5.11 Parameter correlation table Table 5.12 Binary logit model estimation results Table 5.13 Predicted and observed vehicle numbers at 12 car parks Table 6.1 Probabilities of choosing free-of-charge car parks at different parking rates Table 6.2 Probabilities of choosing free-of-charge car parks with the changes of shuttle bus service Table 6.3 Probabilities of choosing free-of-charge car parks by proposed parking supply Table 6.4 Probabilities of choosing free-of-charge car parks with combined effects of parking price and shuttle bus service National University of Singapore viii Chapter Six: Model Application 6.2.2 Change of the shuttle bus service One purpose of providing with service of shuttle bus in NUS campus is to attract more people to park their cars at free-of-charge car parks which are located at the edge of campus with less walking distance This strategy may to some extent tackle the issue of insufficient supply of on-campus car parks On the other hand, it can decrease the traffic volume on the road system on campus and thus improve the efficiency of total transportation system Table 6.2 gives the prediction of usage of charged car parks with the different measures of improvement on the shuttle bus service Considering the present observed average waiting time for the ISB during peak hours is 7.8 minutes, although the scheduled headway is about 8.5 minutes (the minimum and maximum headway is and 13 minutes respectively), two and four minutes are proposed to be reduced to check the responds of the drivers It shows that if the total time of waiting for and spent on bus reduced by minutes, the probabilities of using free-of-charge car parks will increase by 7.3% Table 6.2 Probabilities of choosing free-of-charge parks with changes of ISB service Proposed reduced minutes of waiting Probability of choosing for and spent on shuttle bus (minute) free-of-charge car parks (%) T=0 49.3 - T=2 51.3 4.06 T=4 52.9 7.30 The National University of Singapore Increase by (%) - 80 - Chapter Six: Model Application 6.2.3 Change of the capacity of free-of-charge car parks Parking capacity is also an important factor in the parking location choice model, so it can be treated as one part of parking policy To increase or decrease the numbers of parking lots at some specific locations, the probabilities of choosing the free-of-charge car parks will also change accordingly To be in line with the purpose to induce more infrequent drivers to use the free-of-charge car parks at the fringe of campus, it’s recommended to increase the parking capacity at these locations The proposed capacity of the free-ofcharge car parks and the corresponding probabilities of choosing these car parks are shown in Table 6.3 Table 6.3 Probabilities of choosing free-of-charge car parks by proposed parking supply Location of free-of- Proposed number Probability of choosing change car parks of parking lots free-of-charge car parks (%) Car park 6@Kent vale 400 53.1 500 58.2 Car park 10 A @ 100 54.1 Crisp Satellite Station 200 57.8 NOTE: The present number of parking lots of these above two car parks is 316 and 32 respectively The National University of Singapore - 81 - Chapter Six: Model Application 6.2.4 Combination of different measures As discussed in Chapter One, there is almost no free space to expand the present parking facilities, including the fringe area of the campus So the viable way to be considered is to adopt the combined measures of parking price and ISB service Table 6.4 gives the prediction results of aggregation usage of free-of-charge car parks with the improvements of the shuttle bus service under different parking pricing structure It is done by supposing that all the other variables stand at their mean values obtained from the survey and changing the parking fare and time waiting for and spent on the ISB at the same time, then calculate the choice probability with the Equation (4.1), where i represents free-of-charge car park and j represents charged car park Table 6.4 Probabilities of choosing free-of-charge car parks with combined effects of parking price and shuttle bus service T=0 T=2 T=4 α=1.0 49.3 51.3 52.9 α=1.2 51.3 54.9 57.3 α=1.5 53.8 57.2 59.6 α=2.0 60.7 61.3 63.7 Note: the symbols here have the same meaning as in Table 6.2 and 6.3 The National University of Singapore - 82 - Chapter Six: Model Application 6.3 Suggestions It is hard to compare the effects on the parking demand of these three measures consisted with parking price, supply and bus service However, the easiest and safest way is to improve the service of shuttle bus, such as increasing the frequency and the travel speed While the problem is that before attracting more drivers to park their cars at the fringe parks, the delays on the roads are not alleviated because of those cars finding their parks in centre area and it is hard to increase the travel speed for the shuttle bus So it is better to utilize two or three measures simultaneously 6.4 Summary This chapter gives an example of model application to demonstrate the usefulness of this BL model The effects of three major policy related factors are examined on the choice of parking location in NUS campus The results show that the usage of free-of-charge car parks will increase by 23.12% with two times of present parking fee rate, while it will increase to 63.7% with the combined measure of decreasing minutes on waiting for and taking on the shuttle bus The National University of Singapore - 83 - Chapter Seven: Discussion and Conclusion Chapter Seven Discussion and Conclusion 7.1 Discussion In order to study the parking location choice behavior, only infrequent car park users are identified and the season car park users who in fact have no choice on the parking location are excluded in this study They will definitely choose to park their cars as near as possible to their destinations under the same pricing structure and same parking conditions, because they have the right to park anywhere on campus So the choice for them is just about the decision on travel mode, instead of location However, it will be interesting to investigate what factors and how these factors affect their choice behavior in the long run and then compare the two sets of results Among these infrequent drivers, those who paid the parking cost by their companies are very special in that they are no as sensitive to the parking cost as those who pay the cost by themselves So parking cost is not a major factor for them in the process of searching for their parking lots However, this factor is not reflected in the model It will affect the prediction accuracy when the parking pricing structure is adjusted in model application One method to solve this problem is to separate this group out of the whole samples and build a specific model for this subgroup In this study, it is impossible because this kind of sample is only 26 National University of Singapore - 84 - Chapter Seven: Discussion and Conclusion Although binary logit model is good enough to represent the parking choice behavior on NUS campus, MNL model was also tried initially with four alternatives which are freeof-charge car parks at the fringe of campus, car parks in the east, car parks in the southwest and car parks in the north-west respectively However, the results were not satisfactory because it did not pass the test of IIA, which meant that the random components of utility were not independently and identically distributed across the four alternatives and observations of the choices The reason is that except the free-of-charge car parks, the other three all belong to charged car parks and share the great similarity among them which makes them correlated with each other It means that the random components of utility are not independently and identically distributed across these three alternatives But if the number of alternatives reduces to two, only as free-of-charge and charged car parks, the situation is different Such two alternatives are not correlated in that they differ so much with respect to the location, service and pricing structure The free-of-charge car parks are located at the fringe of campus and provided with ISB service as the choice of park-and-ride mode for the drivers, while the charged car parks are located within the campus So the BL model will not violate the IIA in this study 7.2 Conclusion The need for in-depth understanding of parking choice behavior on NUS campus brings out this study of parking location choice model A binary logit model is selected to describe the relationship between the choice of free-of-charge and charged car parks and the related factors and has been successfully developed and validated in this study It is National University of Singapore - 85 - Chapter Seven: Discussion and Conclusion found that not only the parking facility characteristics, such as parking fee, number of parking lots, walking distance and time wait for and spent on the shuttle bus, but also the socioeconomic characteristics, like age, affect the choice behavior on campus However, the trip characteristics, such as travel time, are not significant in this model Based on the estimation results, the simple application of this choice model with various parking policy measures is illustrated to give some valued ideas of parking management for university authority It seems that the combination of both improving shuttle bus service and adjusting parking pricing will lead to a significant decrease of the usage of charged car parks It is just the objective for the university administration to solve the problem facing nowadays at NUS National University of Singapore - 86 - References REFERENCES Axhausen, K.W Choosing the Type of Parking: A State Preference Approach Proceedings UTSG Conference, London, 1988 Axhausen, K.W and Polak, J.W Choice of Parking: Stated Preference Approach, Transportation 18, pp.59-81, 1991 Ben-Akiva, M and Lerman, 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Behavioral Analysis North Holland, Amsterdam, 1975 Ergün, G Development of A Downtown Parking Model, Highway Research Record 369, pp.118-134, 1971 Fisk, C.S and Boyce, D.E A Modified Composite Cost Measure Environment and Planning, Vol.16A, pp 241-248, 1984 Foong, K.W Enhancing Campus Access and Circulation: An Evaluation Study M.Eng Thesis, National University of Singapore, 2002 Gaudry, M.J.I., Jara-Diaz, S.R and Ortúzar J de D Value of Time Sensitive to Model Specification Transportation Research, Vol 23B, No.2, PP 151-158, 1989 Gaudry, M.J.I and Wills, M.I Estimating the Function Form of Travel Demand Models Transportation Research, Vol.12, No.4, pp 257-289, 1978 Goot, D Van Der, A Model to Describe the Choice of Parking Places Transportation Research, Vol.16A, No.2, pp.109-115, 1982 Guyton, J.W and Upchurch, J.E Campus Traffic and Parking ITE Journal, Vol.45, No 5, 1975 Halim, H Parking Demand at NUS Campus B.Eng Dissertation, National University of Singapore, 2001 Hensher, D.A and Johnson, L.W Applied Discrete-Choice Modeling John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1981 National University of Singapore - 88 - References Hensher, D.A and King, J Parking Demand and Responsiveness to Supply, Pricing and Location in the Sydney Central Business Distict, Transportation Research, Vol.35A, No.3, pp.177-196, 2001 Hensher, D.A and Louviere, J.J A comparison of Elasticities Derived from Multinomial Logit, Nested Logit and Heteroscedastic Extreme Value SP-RP Discrete Choice Models In Proceedings of 8th World Conference on Transport Research, 1999, Antwerp, Belgium, pp.1-13 Horowitz, J.L Reconsidering the Multinomial Probit Model, Transportation Research, Vol.25B, No.6, pp.443-438, 1991 Hunt, J.D and Teply, S.A Nested Logit Model of Parking Location Choice, Transportation Research, Vol.27B, No.4, pp.253-265, 1993 Teknomo, K and Hokao, K Parking Behavior in Central Business District A Study Case of Surabaya, Indonesia, Easts Journal, Vol.2 No.2, pp.551-570, 1997 Lambe, T.A The Choice of Parking Location by Workers in the Central Business District Traffic quarterly, 23, pp.397-411,1969 Lambe, T.A Driver Choice of Parking in the City, Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Vol.30, No 3, pp.207-219, 1996 Lancaster, K.J A New Approach to Consumer Theory Journal of Political Economy, Vol.14, No.2, pp.132-157, 1966 Layard, P and Walters, A Microeconomic Theory New York, McGraw-Hill, 1978 Long, J.S and Jeremy, F Regression Models for Categorical Dependent Variables Using Stata College Station, Tex.: Stata Press, 2001 National University of Singapore - 89 - References Luce, R Individual Choice Behavior: A Theoretical Analysis New York: Wiley, 1959 Luce, R.D and Suppes, P Preference, Utility and Subjective Probability In Luce, R.D., Bush, R.R and Galanter, E (eds), Handbook of Mathematical Psychology New York, John Wiley & Sons, 1965 Manski, C The Structure of Random Utility Models Theory and Decision 8, pp.229-254, 1977 McFadden, D Conditional Logit Analysis of Qualitative Choice Behavior In Frontiers in Econometrics Zarembka, P (ed) New York: Academic Press 1974 McFadden, D Modelling the Choice of Residential Location In Spatial Interaction Theory and Planning Models, ed by A Karlqvist, et al., pp 75-96 North Holland, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 1978 Ortúzar J de D Fundamentals of Discrete Multimodal Choice Modelling Transport Reviews, Vol.2, No.1, pp.47-78, 1982 Ortúzar J de D and Willumsen, L.G Modelling Transport 2nd edition New York: Wiley, 1994 Perkinson, D.G The Use of Optimization Techniques in Parking Facility Sitting At Stanford University ITE Journal, Vol.59, No 4, 1989 Richardson, D., Schnablegger, J., Stephenson, B and Teply, S Canadian Capacity Guide for Signalized Intersections ITE District and University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada, 1984 Salomon, I Towards a Behavioral Approach to City Center Parking Cities, pp200-208, 1986 National University of Singapore - 90 - References Shoup, D.C The Trouble with Minimum Parking Requirements, Research, Vol.33A, No.7-8, pp.549-574, 1999 Smith, S.A Using the ITE Parking Generation Report ITE Journal, Vol.60, No 7, 1990 Sobel, K.L Travel Demand Forecasting by Using the Nested Multinomial Logit Model Transportation Research Record 775, pp.48-55, 1980 Spear, B.D Application of New Travel Demand Forecasting Techniques to Transportation: A Study of Individual Choice Models Report to the Office of Highway Planning, Federal Highway Administration, US Department of Transportation, Washington, DC, 1977 Tardiff, T A Note on Goodness-of-fit Statistics for Probit and Logit Model, Transportation 5, pp.377-388, 1976 Thompson, R.G and Richardson, A.J A Parking Search Model Transportation Research, Vol.32A, No.3, pp.159-170, 1998 Tsamboulas, D.A Parking Fare Thresholds: A Policy Tool, Transport Policy, Vol.8, No.2, pp 115-124, 2001 Varian, H Microeconomic Analysis New York: Norton 1978 Warner, S.L Strategic Choice of Mode in Urban Travel: A Study of Binary Choice Evanston: Northwestern University Press, 1962 Westin, R.B and Gillen, D.W Parking Location and Transit Demand, J Econometrics, 8, pp.75-101, 1978 National University of Singapore - 91 - References Whilock, E.M Use of Linear Programming to Evaluate Alternative Parking Sites, Highrway Research Board, 444, pp.9-19, 1973 Williams, H.C.W.L On the Formation of Travel Demand Models and Economic Evaluation Measures of User Benefit Environment and Planning, Vol.9A No.3, pp.285344, 1977 Young, W., Thompson, R.G and Taylor, M.A.P A Review of Urban Car Parking Models, Transport Reviews, Vol.11, No 1, pp 63-84, 1991 National University of Singapore - 92 - Appendix 1: Survey Questionnaire Parking Location Choice Survey (For Free Car Parks) Age: ‫ ڤ‬20-30 ‫ ڤ‬30-45 ‫ ڤ‬above 45 Gender: ‫ ڤ‬male ‫ ڤ‬female Statue: ‫ ڤ‬student ‫ ڤ‬visitor ‫ ڤ‬staff Travel time of this trip: How many persons are there in your car? (including the driver) Your destination : (please specify the block) How long you plan to park here? _hours How you get to your destination? ‫ ڤ‬shuttle bus ‫ ڤ‬walk *if you select shuttle bus, please continue; otherwise please go to question 11 How many minutes did you wait for the shuttle bus last time? _ 10 How many minutes did you spent on the shuttle bus last time? • if you are a student, please stop here 11 Annual salary(S$): ‫ ڤ‬below30,000 ‫ ڤ‬30,000-50,000 END - ‫ ڤ‬above 50,000 Appendix 1: Survey Questionnaire Parking Location Choice Survey (For Charged Car Parks) Age: ‫ ڤ‬20-30 ‫ ڤ‬30-45 Gender: ‫ ڤ‬male ‫ ڤ‬female Statue: ‫ ڤ‬student ‫ ڤ‬visitor ‫ ڤ‬above 45 ‫ ڤ‬staff Travel time of this trip: How many persons are in your car? (including the driver) Your destination : (please specify the block) How many time you plan to park here? _hours • if you are a student, please stop here • if you are a visitor, please indicate who pays: ‫ ڤ‬company ‫ ڤ‬yourself Annual salary(S$): ‫ ڤ‬below30,000 ‫ ڤ‬30,000-50,000 ‫ ڤ‬above 50,000 END - [...]... knowledge of choice behavior and the foundation for all the consequent discrete choice models Then this is followed by reviewing the different types of discrete choice models that have been used in parking location choice and parking allocation studies All of these models are formulated based on different assumptions and thus have corresponding advantages and disadvantages In order to find the suitable models,... the parking and traffic problem that NUS is facing, there is a need to develop a parking location choice model to find out the major factors affecting choice behavior in campus and how these factors impact the parking choice behavior, and then analyze the parkers’ responsiveness to different measures of parking policies with this tool In order to understand the individual’s decision on parking location. .. discrete choice models may be derived Logit models may be derived if the random components are logistically distributed, while probit models may be obtained if the random components are assumed normal distributed The specific models are given in detail in the next section 3.3 Discrete choice model In this study, the dependent variable of the model is the location choice of parking in NUS campus It... searching for their ideal car parks and how the characteristics of facilities, policies and drivers affect their choice, it is impossible for us to manage and utilize all these car park resources in the most efficient way It may be achieved by the study of parking location choice behavior on campus, which aims to find out the factors that are important in the searching process for a parking location for. .. (1999), Ergün (1971) and Goot (1982) Although some parking related studies in campus environment have been found in the literature review, they are more focused on parking generation and attraction, parking allocation as well as parking demand of universities campus, rather than parking location choice Guyton and Upchurch (1975) presented a table indicating parking spaces per 100 persons based on enrollment... Chapter Five summarizes the main findings of the parking choice survey from statistical point of view and presents the model estimation results of location choice for NUS campus parking In addition, model validation is processed by comparing the observed and predicted vehicle numbers at different parks to validate the model results Then the evaluation of the model suitability and the detailed interpretation... estimate the impacts of some specific parking policy measures, such as parking pricing and parking supply, on the changes in the utilization of parking locations In addition, the findings are also useful in the parking planning for a new campus National University of Singapore -3- Chapter One: Introduction There are many researchers who have focused on parking choice studies in CBD of cities, such... MNL model and MNP model except the different number of alternatives In order to determine which one is most suitable in this study, a detailed review of all these disaggregate models will be presented It is followed by the criteria and specific reasons for choosing the most suitable model In the end, BL model is decided as the right tool in the study of parking location choice behavior on NUS campus. .. steps: 1) model setup: choose a suitable model structure to model the choice behavior in campus; 2) model development: discuss the explanatory variables related to socioeconomic, travel related and parking facilities characteristic, specify the selected model and present the methods of model National University of Singapore - 11- Chapter Two: Methodology estimation, evaluation and aggregation; 3) model. .. category variable, not rank or count variable, so only the cardinal discrete models are discussed later as the potential models They include MNL model, BL model, MNP model, binary logit model and binary probit model National University of Singapore - 20 - Chapter Three: Choice Theory and Model Selection 3.3.1 Multinomial logit model Based on the assumption that the random components of utilities of different ... fringe of the campus So there is a need to understand the parking choice behavior on campus The objective of this study is to build a probabilistic model to explain the parking location choice behavior... Validation of location choice model Figure 5.4 Probabilities of choosing free-of-charge car parks at different parking duration Figure 6.1 Application of the parking location choice model National... between parking location and status Table 5.8 Relationship between parking location and gender Table 5.9 Relationship between parking location and age Table 5.10 Correlation of salary and parking location