Q1 2011 www.businessmonitor.com VietnaM agribusiness Report INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2015 ISSN 1758-454X Published by Business Monitor International Ltd VIETNAM AGRIBUSINESS REPORT Q1 2011 INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2014 Part of BMI's Industry Report & Forecasts Series Published by: Business Monitor International Production Date: December 2010 Business Monitor International Mermaid House, Puddle Dock, London, EC4V 3DS, UK Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: subs@businessmonitor.com Web: http://www.businessmonitor.com © 2010 Business Monitor International All rights reserved All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any means graphic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies or omissions affecting any part of the publication All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 CONTENTS Executive Summary Industry Developments SWOT Analysis Vietnam Agricultural SWOT Vietnam Political SWOT Vietnam Economic SWOT Vietnam Business Environment SWOT 10 Industry Forecast Scenario 11 Vietnam Sugar Outlook 11 VIETNAM Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade 11 VIETNAM Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade 13 Vietnam Livestock Outlook 14 VIETNAM Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade 15 VIETNAM Pork Production, Consumption & Trade 15 VIETNAM Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade 15 VIETNAM Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade 19 VIETNAM Pork Production, Consumption & Trade 19 VIETNAM Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade 19 Vietnam Coffee Outlook 21 VIETNAM Coffee Production & Consumption 22 VIETNAM Coffee Production & Consumption 24 Vietnam Dairy Outlook 25 VIETNAM Milk Production & Consumption 25 VIETNAM Butter Production, Consumption & Trade 26 VIETNAM Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade 26 VIETNAM Milk Production & Consumption 28 VIETNAM Butter Production, Consumption & Trade 28 VIETNAM Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade 29 Vietnam Grains Outlook 30 VIETNAM Corn Production, Consumption & Trade 30 VIETNAM Corn Production, Consumption & Trade 31 Vietnam Rice Outlook 32 VIETNAM Rice Production, Consumption & Trade 33 VIETNAM Rice Production, Consumption & Trade 35 Competitive Landscape 36 Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders 36 Table: Agribusiness Suppliers 37 Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers 38 Commodity Price Analysis 39 Softs Update 39 Cocoa 39 COCOA 39 Coffee 40 COFFEE 40 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 Milk 41 MILK 41 Sugar 42 SUGAR 42 Monthly Grains Update 43 Corn 43 CORN 43 Rice 44 RICE 44 Soybean 45 SOYBEAN 45 Wheat 46 WHEAT 46 Downstream Supply Chain Analysis 47 Industry Forecast Scenario 47 Consumer Outlook 47 Food 49 Food Consumption 49 Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts 50 Canned Food 51 Confectionery 52 Table: Value/Volume Sales of Selected Food Sub-Sectors - Historical Data & Forecasts 53 Trade 54 Table: Vietnam Food & Drink Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts 55 Mass Grocery Retail 56 Table: Vietnam MGR Indicators - Value Sales by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts 58 Grocery Retail Sales by Format Historical Data & Forecasts (%) 58 Macroeconomic Forecast 59 Vietnam – Economic Activity 61 Industry Trend Analysis 62 Global Coffee Outlook: Vietnam Focus 62 VIETNAM ESTIMATES 65 Asia-Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings 66 Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings -Q1 2011 69 Company News Aler 70 Fonterra EM Expansion Highlights Promise For Dairy Industry Players 70 Global Food & Drink View 73 Food and Drink Roundup: Core Views 73 BMI Food & Drink Core Views 77 BMI Forecast Modelling 78 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 78 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 Executive Summary BMI View: Consistent economic growth has led to double-digit consumption growth forecasts across all agricultural sectors in Vietnam However, the industry will continue to produce surpluses in coffee and rice - but few other commodities Indeed, with a rising population and incomes, the country will remain a net importer of all livestock and dairy goods over the forecast period Although the Vietnamese government is investing in several sectors to increase production, most of the industry, barring rice, will remain import-dependent and vulnerable to changes in global agricultural prices Key Trends: Coffee production growth to 2014/15: 23% to 24.2mn 60kg bags The recently approved government stock-piling scheme should serve to smooth price fluctuations and also ensure a steady supply of yearly coffee output Sugar production growth to 2014/15:31.2% to 1.9mn tonnes Gains will be driven by stronger domestic demand and an increase in yields Despite this, the country will likely remain a net sugar importer, as demand is expected to outstrip supply Rice production growth to 2014/15: 23% to 29.6mn tonnes.We not foresee expansion through increase in area harvested but through yield improvements Corn Consumption growth to 2015: 52% Animal feed will remain the primary use for corn to 2015 and beyond (feed accounted for 73% of total demand in 2009) and consequently our demand outlook for corn is very closely linked to our Vietnamese livestock forecasts Pork production growth to 2014/15: 36.3% to 2.6mn tonnes This will constitute more than 60% of total meat consumed in 2015 Rising incomes will stimulate domestic meat consumption growth and production will increase to keep pace Furthermore, the livestock industry has become a key focus of government efforts to modernise food processing 2011 Real GDP Growth: 6% (down from 6.7% in 2010; predicted to average 6.5% from 2010 until 2014) Consumer Price Inflation: 10.8% y-o-y in September 2010 (up from 1.8% y-o-y in September 2009) © Business Monitor International Ltd Page Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 Industry Developments Vietnam's coffee sector has grown significantly over the last 20 years, with yields doubling over that time, while the area planted has expanded from 42,000 hectares to over 509,000 We believe that growth will be driven by the Vietnamese government's plans to increase replanting of coffee trees Work on replacing trees, many of which are more than 20 years old, will improve disease resistance and thus yields in the long term Another growth driver will be export opportunities, given that Vietnam is the world's largest exporter of robusta coffee The newly-approved government stockpiling plan should also serve to smooth price fluctuations and ensure a steady output in the long run Despite virtually flat production growth in recent years and even a slight decrease in 2009/10, we believe Vietnam's rice sector will experience considerable growth over our forecast period, buoyed by improvements in infrastructure, higher yields and increased domestic demand Compared with many of its agricultural sub-sectors, Vietnamese rice is actually very competitive relative to many of its regional peers and is well positioned to ensure the country remains a net exporter Indeed, it will continue to be one of the world's few rice exporters, the second largest in 2009/10 Vietnamese dairy consumption has expanded significantly in the last 15 years, driven by relatively large increases in domestic consumption and rising incomes, which have fostered increased milk consumption Dramatic increases in cattle numbers and increased public and private sector investment, in an effort to reduce the country's growing import dependency, will support the strong growth Commercialisation will also play a key role as larger, more efficient farms begin to play a greater part in total milk production © Business Monitor International Ltd Page Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 SWOT Analysis Vietnam Agricultural SWOT Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats The natural fertility of Vietnam around the Red River Delta in the north and the Mekong Vietnam is the world's second largest exporter of both rice and coffee It also enjoys relatively high rice yields compared to its regional counterparts Agricultural productivity has improved considerably since the opening up of the economy in 1986 Much of Vietnam's agriculture is based on small-scale farms with poor yields in comparison to more developed international competitors Transportation and production infrastructure is often poor, making getting crops to market difficult and negatively affecting quality Since the opening up of the economy in 1986, allowing more private involvement in agriculture, yields have improved dramatically and look set to continue doing so over our forecast period to 2013 Vietnam's fast-growing population of over 80mn provides a large market for agrofood products With BMI forecasting Vietnamese GDP per capita to grow rapidly over our forecast period to 2014, consumers will have more money to spend on food, spurring growth in agricultural production Poor knowledge of good farming practices and hygiene standards leaves Vietnamese agriculture open to disease outbreaks of the kind that have plagued the livestock industry in recent years The slowing world economy threatens demand for key exports such as coffee and could lead to domestic food consumption growth falling short of expectations The rising population and increasing industrialisation of the economy will increase competition for land use, curtailing the area available for expansion of agriculture © Business Monitor International Ltd Page Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 Vietnam Political SWOT Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats The Communist Party government appears committed to market-oriented reforms, although specific economic policies will undoubtedly be discussed at the 2011 National Congress The one-party system is generally conducive to short-term political stability Relations with the US are generally improving, and Washington sees Hanoi as a potential geopolitical ally in South East Asia Corruption among government officials poses a major threat to the legitimacy of the ruling Communist Party There is increasing (albeit still limited) public dissatisfaction with the leadership's tight control over political dissent The government recognises the threat that corruption poses to its legitimacy, and has acted to clamp down on graft among party officials Vietnam has allowed legislators to become more vocal in criticising government policies This is opening up opportunities for more checks and balances within the one-party system The slowdown in growth in 2009 and 2010 is likely to weigh on public acceptance of the one-party system, and street demonstrations to protest economic conditions could develop into a full-on challenge of undemocractic rule Although strong domestic control will ensure little change to Vietnam's political scene in the next few years, over the longer term, the one-party-state will probably be unsustainable Relations with China have deteriorated over the past year due to Beijing's more assertive stance over disputed islands in the South China Sea and domestic criticism of a large Chinese investment into a bauxite mining project in the central highlands, which could potentially cause widescale environmental damage © Business Monitor International Ltd Page Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 Vietnam Economic SWOT Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats Vietnam has been one of the fastest-growing economies in Asia in recent years, with GDP growth averaging 7.6% annually between 2000 and 2009 The economic boom has lifted many Vietnamese out of poverty, with the official poverty rate in the country falling from 58% in 1993 to 20% in 2004 Vietnam still suffers from substantial trade, current account and fiscal deficits, leaving the economy vulnerable as the global economy continues to suffer in 2010 The fiscal picture is clouded by considerable 'off-the-books' spending The heavily-managed and weak dong currency reduces incentives to improve quality of exports, and also serves to keep import costs high, thus contributing to inflationary pressures WTO membership has given Vietnam access to both foreign markets and capital, while making Vietnamese enterprises stronger through increased competition The government will in spite of the current macroeconomic woes, continue to move forward with market reforms, including privatisation of state-owned enterprises, and liberalising the banking sector Urbanisation will continue to be a long-term growth driver The UN forecasts the urban population to rise from 29% of the population to more than 50% by the early 2040s Inflation and deficit concerns have caused some investors to re-assess their hitherto upbeat view of Vietnam If the government focuses too much on stimulating growth and fails to root out inflationary pressure, it risks prolonging macroeconomic instability, which could lead to a potential crisis Prolonged macroeconomic instability could prompt the authorities to put reforms on hold, as they struggle to stabilise the economy © Business Monitor International Ltd Page Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 headline food consumption levels in China and India have made these economies enormously attractive, as the flurry of investment activities in recent years has underlined India Underperforms In Risk Terms The two Asian giants, however, present Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings - Q1 2011 markedly different risks to investors Despite India's solid performance in terms of opportunity, the country's still-restrictive industry regulations and very weak distribution infrastructure have continued to hamper its prospects of enjoying a similar top-spot ranking to China This also explains India's mid-table position in our regional risk/reward ratings China, comparatively, performs better in terms of its risk score, which is 13 points higher than India's We believe this could be largely attributed to China's improving Source: BMI distribution infrastructure, favourable monetary policy and a relatively well-developed labour market (when compared to India's) Developed States - Not To Be Left Out We maintain that balanced geographic portfolios - that is, a diversified footprint across developed economies and EMs - will play an increasingly important role in the regional growth strategies of multinationals, and this necessitates a relative look at developed economies in the Asia-Pacific region Developed states such as Australia, Japan and Taiwan have been dominating the upper half of our ratings table due to their relatively low-risk business environments and high existing spending levels (which EMs have not been able to match thus far) These countries' developed infrastructure, higher-skilled labour force, stable financial and business systems and openness to foreign investment are reasons why we like these economies despite the relatively modest growth opportunities on offer South Korea, interestingly, boasts a higher risk/reward rating when compared to many of its developedmarket peers, and its higher food and beverage spending levels relative to developing Asian economies further endorses its favourable position In an increasingly-developed economy like South Korea, we believe there is still scope for considerable growth By contrast, mature markets like Singapore and Hong Kong miss out on these dynamics due to their high level of market maturity and small population size (which translate into limited growth opportunities) These characteristics largely offset the benefits of a low-risk investment environment and a high propensity to spend among consumers in these economies © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 67 Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 Thailand And Indonesia - Very Bright Prospects Thailand and Indonesia are other bright medium-term investment prospects that continue to enjoy midtable positions in our regional risk/reward ratings The shaky political situation in Thailand and its poor physical infrastructure continue to plague the country's appeal to investors and have caused it to slip slightly in our ratings table this quarter Yet Thailand's high tourism levels, healthy economic growth forecast and moderately-strong per capita food consumption growth will continue to fuel the dynamism within the country's food and drink sector, making it a very enticing investment destination in our view Another attractive investment prospect, in our opinion, is Indonesia Notably, Indonesia outperforms Thailand in terms of rewards but fares relatively poorly with regard to risk At present, Indonesia suffers from low existing consumption levels and limited growth opportunities in its alcoholic drinks sector owing to its large Muslim population Furthermore, corruption and perceived excessive bureaucracy will continue to blight the country's business environment, while security risks also remain That said, it should be noted that Indonesia's forecast food consumption growth remains at a respectable level, and its favourable demographics suggest that the popularity of soft drinks and processed foods will continue to soar Pakistan - Rooted to the Bottom Pakistan, on the other hand, remains rooted to the bottom of our risk/reward ratings table given its poor showing in terms of risks and a relatively low score of 45 for rewards Pakistan's large population size and the immature nature of its food and drink sector have failed to offset the country's very low food and beverage consumption level The situation is just as bleak on the risk side, as Pakistan's excessive redtape, widespread corruption and underdeveloped labour market remain key challenges for investors to overcome before they can fully tap on the country's EM potential Looking Ahead It should be acknowledged that our risk/reward ratings paint only a near-medium term picture, and the continued dynamism and improving business environment conditions of our favourite EM economies such as India, Indonesia and Vietnam should push these countries up the ratings table beyond our current five-year forecast period, potentially outperforming their developed market peers that have consistently dominated the top-spots in our risk/reward ratings table © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 68 Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings -Q1 2011 Rewards Risks Risks Risk/Rew ard Rating Regional Ranking 73 67 63 60 72 67 61 54 75 77 76 60 57 54 70 76 74 60 50 69 60 60 49 54 58 Taiwan 55 48 51 70 75 73 58 Indonesia 52 64 58 65 52 57 58 Thailand 57 54 55 55 68 63 58 Hong Kong 50 45 48 70 76 75 56 Singapore 34 51 43 90 77 82 55 10 Vietnam 47 59 53 70 49 57 55 12 Malaysia 38 56 47 70 69 70 54 11 Philippines 30 55 42 70 55 61 48 13 Pakistan 27 62 45 30 39 35 42 14 AVERAGE 47 58 52 65 65 65 56 N/A Industry rewards Country rewards Rewards Industry Risks Country Risks China 60 64 62 55 Australia 56 62 59 Japan 48 60 South Korea 50 India Source: BMI Scores out of 100, with 100 highest For full methodology see Appendix at the back of our Food & Drink Quarterly Reports, or visit our online service © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 69 Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 Company News Aler Fonterra EM Expansion Highlights Promise For Dairy Industry Players New Zealand dairy giant Fonterra has invested NZD8mn (US$5.9mn) in upgrading its Auckland-based production facility to ramp up production of ultra-high temperature (UHT) milk The increase in annual UHT milk production capacity, by 30% to 90mn litres, will allow Fonterra to take advantage of the phenomenal long-term growth opportunities on offer in the global dairy sector The company is also exploring new export markets including Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam, further underscoring our view that the future for expansionary multinationals lies with emerging markets (EMs) According to the managing director of Fonterra Brands New Zealand Peter McClure, global consumption of UHT milk is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 5.2% between 2010 and 2012, making UHT one of the fastest growing dairy sub-sectors This is in line with BMI's forecasts for the wider dairy industry; we expect a 3.4% increase in global liquid milk consumption to 215mn tonnes by 2011 As well as facilitating its investments in EMs, Fonterra's UHT upgrade should also provide it with a stronger platform to consolidate its footprint in existing export markets such as Singapore and Hong Kong These markets have exhibited a strong rebound in domestic demand as they emerge from the global recession and BMI remains confident that boosting its presence in these markets will benefit Fonterra's future growth prospects The relatively high per-capita food consumption levels in these economies (see chart) are further reasons for optimism on the company's earnings outlook as it steadily increases its market penetration © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 70 Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 Solid Spending Levels In Developed Economies Per-Capita Food Consumption, 2010 (US$) Source: BMI Forecasts Complimenting a renewed push into Singapore and Hong Kong, Fonterra's move to accelerate its push into EMs is a strong testimony to our expectations of EM outperformance when compared to the wider market over the long term It also underscores the need for Fonterra to further explore high-growth, lessdeveloped markets to secure its future growth and capitalise on the range of opportunities on offer in these emerging economies: The Ongoing Dynamic Emergence Of The Chinese Consumer - Buoyed by higher disposable incomes, the improved affordability of cold storage facilities and a growing health-awareness trend, China's dairy sector remains one of the highest-growth sub-sectors of the country's food industry However, China's fragmented dairy market, blighted by recent food safety scandals, remains highly dependent on dairy imports, suggesting further sales opportunities for global dairy exporters such as Fonterra An Import-Dependent Malaysian Economy - Over the long term, BMI foresees rising incomes and sustained economic development to spur dairy demand in Malaysia Fonterra's move could allow it to capitalise on the country's robust demand forecast, while the relatively long shelf-life (around 6-9 months) of its UHT milk would help the company overcome the problem of the country's weak transport infrastructure Rising Consumerism In Indonesia - Indonesia's strong economic growth forecast of 6.2% per annum on average over the next 10 years, coupled with falling unemployment rates, will continue to contribute to © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 71 Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 the rise in dairy consumption, further underlining our bullish outlook for Fonterra BMI expects the country's liquid milk consumption to surge by 16.5% over the 2009-2014 period An Increasingly-Affluent Vietnamese Consumer Base - Increasing urbanisation remains a key driver behind our bullish forecast figures for Vietnam's dairy demand - BMI is pencilling in an increase in liquid milk consumption of 39.1% to 229,600 tonnes in 2014 Moreover, Vietnam's massive and relatively young population will continue to bolster demand for dairy products amid changing consumer preferences and increased affordability However, we would note that the rising affordability of dairy products on the back of continuous production capacity increases from domestic players may weigh on Fonterra's potential for growth in the country's dairy sector The company's strategy of balancing its investments in developed economies, such as Singapore, with investments in emerging markets, such as China, Vietnam and Indonesia, fits very well with BMI's view that balanced geographic portfolios will play an increasingly significant role in multinationals' long-term growth strategies Given Fonterra's ongoing expansionary investments in production capacity, we believe that the company is in a strong position to benefit from both solid existing spending levels in developed countries and the rapid acceleration of domestic demand in EMs © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 72 Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 Global Food & Drink View Food and Drink Roundup: Core Views Developments within the global food and drink industry in the past three months have continued to reflect and support BMI's core industry views In major developed markets, fiscal austerity measures and slow recovery in employment continue to weigh on our expectations for growth in the medium term However, over the last quarter, emerging markets have again demonstrated their ability to outperform the wider market and have continued to attract investment One major trend during the quarter has been the increased role of private equity groups in the food and drink sector, which we think is indicative of its 'safe haven' status and the uncertainty surrounding the strength of the wider economic recovery Slow Pace of Recovery Weak Recovery In Private Sector Employment US - Employment ('000s) In many markets the strength of the recovery has disappointed, with little sign of a resurgence in consumer demand across the US, Western Europe or emerging markets that were particularly hard hit by the downturn such as Venezuela and Romania In line with our wider economic outlook and our core short-term view, we believe the recovery in demand will continue to be muted in developed markets Our caution can be traced to the fact that unemployment in many Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics markets remains high (see first chart) and shows little sign of retracing, with companies still wary about the strength of the recovery and holding back on hiring Meanwhile, many consumers who are still in employment have yet to be hit in the pocket by the downturn, but this is set to change as fiscal austerity measures are implemented A rapid drop in interest rates, monetary expansion and the delaying of tax rises and spending cuts has so far cushioned the impact of the financial crisis for many consumers However, with these factors set to unwind going into 2011, any uptick in consumer spending is expected to remain relatively weak As such, we forecast that the next 12 months will continue to be difficult for many producers, with much of the growth over the period likely to be attributed to base effects rather than a resumption of strong demand growth or premiumisation © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 73 Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 Mixed Picture In Emerging Markets Over the last few months, emerging markets Heinz Off The Pace Revenues From Emerging Markets (%) have again shown their importance, delivering significant outperformance over their developed market peers, in line with our core long term view However, even in those markets that bounced back strongly from the global downturn, such as Brazil and China, we remain cautious, due to signs of slowing growth in H210 as the knock-on effects from a weaker US and eurozone weigh on global demand Despite this relatively subdued short-term outlook, the long-term picture is undoubtedly Y = last financial year, Y-1 = previous financial year etc Source: Investor Relations, Bloomberg, BMI favourable and investment continues to flow into the most attractive regions Notable investments over the last quarter have included Diageo and Heineken building new plants in South Africa and Starbucks buying outs its local partner to take full control of its Brazilian operations - a move that we see as a prelude to a significant uptick in investment Japanese firms, faced with the prospect of flatlining demand in their domestic market, have continued to push aggressively into the rest of Asia and are starting to look further afield Drinks producer Suntory is reportedly considering purchases in emerging Europe, the Middle East and North Africa following its 2009 acquisition of Europe-based Orangina © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 74 Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 As the battle for market share in the major emerging markets become more competitive, another of our Excise Hammer Blow Russia Beer Sales (Volume) - Historical Data & Forecasts 2002-2014 core views is that firms will increasingly look further afield for growth One firm that is already making this leap is Nestlé, which over the last quarter stepped up its focus on frontier markets by announcing it was to invest close to US$45mn in the Democratic Republic of Congo and that it was to become a majority shareholder in the Guatemalan Mahler Group - a development that ties in with our f = BMI forecast Source: SABMiller, Baltika, Trade Press, BMI favourable outlook for the Central American region as a whole Multinational firms that have been slower to jump aboard the emerging market bandwagon now have to play catch-up and most have announced a new focus on their emerging market businesses One firm that fits this profile is Heinz, which has significantly less emerging markets exposure than its peers (see second chart) The firm's CEO, William Johnson, said in early September that it 'continues to look for those M&A opportunities that exist in emerging markets and I can tell you we are not spending much time looking for M&A opportunities in the US or Western Europe, our focus is entirely on the emerging world' This announcement was soon followed by the disclosure of plans for major expansion in Vietnam Drop In Tax Revenues Leads to Increased Concern About Alcohol Abuse Our core view that government legislation will continue to play a role in marginalising unhealthy foods and drinks has come to fore in the alcohol sector over the latest quarter, with a rise in excise duties in several key markets This trend is likely to have been accelerated by a drop in tax revenues as a result of the downturn, with excise duties an easy way for governments to help prop up their tax income Perhaps the most significant movement has been in Russia, where restrictions on the sale of alcohol and hefty tax hikes have led to higher average prices and a significant drop in consumption BMI forecasts a 10% drop in beer volumes during 2010 (see third chart) Other markets hit by tax hikes include Turkey, Greece and Spain In Turkey, a 35% duty increase since the start of the year has led us to cut our forecasts by 3.5%, while a rise in duty on spirits in Greece is expected to put significant downward pressure on consumption over our five-year forecast period Spirits sales are already in decline due to the country's economic turmoil and three increases in the tax rate since © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 75 Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 the start of 2010 have put further pressure on the sector Meanwhile, the industry association for the Spanish spirits sector, Federación Española de Bebidas Espirituosas (FEBE), has said that a planned increase in sales tax there could lead to a 10% decline in spirits sales - a view that is also reflected in our forecasts Private Equity Sniffing Out Food Opportunities One trend that has only emerged in the last few months has been a significant increase in private equity (PE) activity within the food and drink sector Assets are being shifted between different private equity funds (secondary buyouts), while the industry is also taking a leading role in acquiring assets put up for sale by major multinationals On the sell side, PE firms are eager to exit investments and book profits after being unable to so for the last two years when deal activity was frozen over A secondary buyout is currently an attractive exit route thanks to the guaranteed price of return This is in contrast to a backdrop of ongoing volatility in equity markets and the recent underperformance of IPOs In general, IPO exits have traded down in the aftermarket and this trend was cemented by the July floatation of online grocery retailer Ocado, which traded down after launch There has also been a dearth of strategic acquirers, with many major players still focused on maintaining their earnings and building up their balance sheets rather than investing for longer term growth While this appears to be gradually changing as 2010 goes on, an expected uptick in activity following Kraft's successful capture of Cadbury has failed to materialise in any meaningful way On the buy side, the relative ease of secondary buyouts offers funds the opportunity to put to work the pile of capital they are sat upon PE firms are happy to invest in relatively low growth defensive assets rather than return capital to investors unused, and we believe the defensive nature of food is one factor drawing in private equity investors, with a moderate return regarded as preferable to no return at all PE also has a track record of success in the sector, with investment in neglected brands and segments generating significant returns It is notable that the businesses being snapped up, such as frozen food group Findus Italy, frozen food retailer Picard Surgeles and potentially United Biscuits, are in relatively unfashionable parts of the industry Here, PE firms see opportunities that multinationals, focused on more high profile parts of their operations such as functional products and emerging markets, have ignored © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 76 Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 BMI Food & Drink Core Views Short-term Outlook Consumer demand in developed markets remains too weak to support a strong rebound in sector growth A stuttering recovery in the US and Eurozone will increasingly way on the performance of emerging Markets Commodity price volatility will continue to affect producer earnings Premiumisation will remain on hold Private labels and off-trade alcohol drinks will outperform their respective sectors Discount grocery retailers will continue to gain market share Government fiscal policy - austerity - will be unsupportive of industry growth Government monetary policy - the reduced likelihood of further rate hikes - will help limit demand destruction Major takeovers will remain scarce leaving room for the private equity sector to step in We continue to favour private consumption-led economies, over export-oriented states for consumer goods investment Long-term Outlook Companies with strong Emerging Market exposure will continue to outperform Emerging Market multinationals will increasingly pursue frontier market investments Tension between producers and retailers will remain Investment in innovation will increase as producers seek differentiation; emphasis will be placed on protecting innovations Brand builders will continue to leave sectors under threat from private labels Government legislation will play an increasing role in marginalising unhealthy food and beverage products; notably alcohol Demand for convenience in retail and food will continue to grow Functional foods will be the highest growth sector in developed markets Consolidation will continue as producers seek greater efficiencies Beverage companies will continue to invest in diversification away from carbonated beverages and into healthier subsectors Source: BMI © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 77 Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 BMI Forecast Modelling How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts BMI’s industry forecasts are generated using the best-practice techniques of time-series modelling and causal/econometric modelling The precise form of model we use varies from industry to industry, in each case being determined, as per standard practice, by the prevailing features of the industry data being examined BMI mainly uses OLS estimators and in order to avoid relying on subjective views and encourage the use of objective views, BMI uses a ‘general-to-specific’ method BMI mainly uses a linear model, but simple non-linear models, such as the log-linear model, are used when necessary During periods of ‘industry shock’, for example poor weather conditions impeding agricultural output, dummy variables are used to determine the level of impact Effective forecasting depends on appropriately-selected regression models BMI selects the best model according to various different criteria and tests, including, but not exclusive to: R2 tests explanatory power; Adjusted R2 takes degree of freedom into account Testing the directional movement and magnitude of coefficients Hypothesis testing to ensure coefficients are significant (normally t-test and/or P-value) All results are assessed to alleviate issues related to auto-correlation and multi-collinearity BMI uses the selected best model to perform forecasting It must be remembered that human intervention plays a necessary and desirable role in all of BMI’s industry forecasting Experience, expertise and knowledge of industry data and trends ensures that analysts spot structural breaks, anomalous data, turning points and seasonal features where a purely mechanical forecasting process would not Within the Agribusiness industry, this intervention might include, but is not exclusive to, technology development that might influence future output levels (for example greater use of biotechnology), dramatic changes in local production levels due to public or private sector investment, the regulatory environment and specific areas of legislation, such as import and export tariffs and farm subsidies, changes in lifestyles and general societal trends, the formation of bilateral and multilateral trading agreements and political factors The following two examples show the demand (consumption) and the supply (production) of rice Note: the explanatory variables for both of them are quite similar, but the underlying economic theory is different © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 78 Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 Example of Rice Consumption Model: (Rice Consumption)t = β0 + β1*(Real Private Consumption per capita)t + β2*(Inflation)t + β3*(Real Lending Rate)t + β4*(Population)t + β5*(Government Expenditure)t + β6*(Food Consumption)t-1 + εt Where: β are parameters for this function Real Private Consumption per capita has a positive relationship with Rice Consumption, if rice is a normal good in a particular country If rice is an inferior good in a country, the relationship is negative So the sign of β1 is determined by a specific product within a specific country When Inflation is high, people with rational expectations will consume ‘today’ rather than wait for ‘tomorrow’s high price to come Higher rice demand in Year t due to higher inflation in that year leads to an assumed positive sign of β2 The relationship between Real Lending Rate and Rice Consumption is expected to be negative When real lending rates increase, disposable incomes, especially for those with mortgage burdens etc, will decrease So the sign of β3 is expected to be negative Of course, other things being equal, growth in rice consumption can also be caused by growth in population Consequently, positive sign of β4 is expected Government Expenditure typically causes total disposable incomes to rise So the sign of β5 is expected to be positive Human behaviour has a trend: A high level of food consumption in previous years means there is very likely to be a high level of food consumption the next year So the positive sign of β6 is expected ε is the error/residual term Example of Rice Production Model: (Rice Production)t = β0 + β1*(Real GDP per capita)t + β2*(Inflation)t + β3*(Real Lending Rate)t + β4*(Rural Population)t + β5*(Government Expenditure)t + β6*(Food Production)t-1 + εt Where: The same as above, the relationship between Real GDP per capita and rice production depends on whether rice is normal or inferior good in that country © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 79 Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 If high inflation is caused by food prices increasing, farmers will be more profitable Then they will supply more agricultural product (e.g rice) to increase their marginal (extra) profit, although this is tempered by the rising cost of other inputs in line with inflation There is a global move towards corporate farming, away from small holdings, in order to achieve greater agricultural productivity Corporate farming means more investment in the modes of production i.e agricultural machinery Higher real lending rates discourage investment, which in turn reduce production BMI assumes only the rural population has a positive effect on agricultural product supply With supportive government policy, other things being equal, rice production is expected to go up Government Expenditure is likely to play some role in supporting agribusiness Again, previous food production positively affects this year’s prediction y affects this year’s prediction © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 80 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner Further reproduction prohibited without permission [...].. .Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 Vietnam Business Environment SWOT Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats Vietnam has a large, skilled and low-cost workforce, that has made the country attractive to foreign investors Vietnam' s location - its proximity to China and South East Asia, and its good sea links... possibly see output fall later in our forecast period © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 13 Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 Vietnam Livestock Outlook BMI Supply View: Vietnam' s livestock industry has historically suffered from under-investment and competition from cheaper imports Within the Vietnamese livestock industry, pig farming is by far the most significant sector, with pork production,... International Ltd Page 14 Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 VIETNAM Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f Poultry Production, '000 1 tonnes 365.10 381.70 401.20 428.00 453.70 476.20 Poultry Consumption, 1 '000 tonnes 552.30 579.80 630.90 688.30 746.50 802.00 Poultry Net Trade 1 Balance, '000 tonnes -187.30 -198.20 -229.70 -260.20 -292.80 -325.70 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f... upside risks to our forecasts © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 20 Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 Vietnam Coffee Outlook BMI Supply View: Vietnam' s coffee sector has grown significantly over the last 20 years, with yields doubling over that time, while the area planted has expanded from 42,000 hectares to over 509,000 Vietnam is the world's biggest producer of robusta coffee, with more than... growth forecast missed © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 24 Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 Vietnam Dairy Outlook BMI Supply View: Vietnamese dairy consumption has expanded significantly in the last 15 years, driven by rising incomes which have fostered increased milk consumption In fact, per-capita milk consumption in Vietnam virtually doubled between 2000 and 2009 to 12kg per person per... Vietnam, BMI FAPRI, BMI © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 25 Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 VIETNAM Butter Production, Consumption & Trade 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f Butter Production, '000 1 tonnes 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Butter Consumption, '000 1 tonnes 7.2 7.8 8.4 9.2 10.0 11.0 -7.2 -7.8 -8.4 -9.2 -10.0 -11.0 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f Cheese Production, '000 1 tonnes 0.0... forecasts, as it places the dairy industry at risk of a similar scandal at home, which would further tar the image of dairy products in Vietnam © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 29 Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 Vietnam Grains Outlook BMI Supply View: Vietnamese corn production is forecast to be just over 5mn tonnes in 2009/10, a 14% year-on-year (y-o-y) improvement due to a slight increase... dip by 3.7% y-o-y in 2008/09 on the back of tighter credit regulations throughout Vietnam then © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 31 Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 Vietnam Rice Outlook BMI Supply View : Despite virtually flat production growth in recent years and even a slight decrease in 2009/10, BMI believes Vietnam' s rice sector will experience considerable growth over our forecast period,... Monitor International Ltd Page 22 Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 defects in the coffee rather than moisture content as used previously If the ministry follows through with the plans, it will be good news for Vietnam' s coffee sector, which suffers from perceptions of low quality Vicofa is also pushing for the development of more coffee processing facilities in Vietnam This would allow the country... instant coffee will likely be content with domestic production for some time to come, Vietnamese coffee growers will only benefit from increased domestic demand for higher quality coffees if investment in quality improvement is made © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 23 Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 VIETNAM Coffee Production & Consumption Coffee Production, '000 1,2 60kg bags 2005 2006 ... 6.2 6.7 7.2 -6 .1 -6 .6 -5 .3 -6 .2 -6 .7 -7 .2 Notes: BMI estimates BMI forecasts Sources: FAPRI, BMI © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 28 Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 VIETNAM Cheese... completeness of any information hereto contained Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 CONTENTS Executive Summary ... 12,192 3,500 4,267 Dec-08 Dec-08 Dec-08 Dec-08 Dec-08 Source: Company Investor Relations, BMI © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 38 Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2011 Commodity Price Analysis