... Business Monitor International Ltd Page Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 SWOT Freight Transport Vietnam Freight Transport Industry SWOT Analysis Strengths ■ Vietnam' s strong domestic growth... affect Vietnam' s freight transport sector © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 11 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Political SWOT Analysis Strengths ■ The Communist Party of Vietnam. .. International Ltd Page 22 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Table: Inland Waterway Freight (Vietnam 2012-2019) 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f Inland Waterway Freight Tonnes (000)
Q2 2015 www.bmiresearch.com VIETNAM FREIGHT TRANSPORT REPORT INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2019 ISSN 1750-5364 Published by:BMI Research Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2019 Part of BMI’s Industry Report & Forecasts Series Published by: BMI Research Copy deadline: February 2015 BMI Research Senator House 85 Queen Victoria Street London EC4V 4AB United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: subs@bmiresearch.com Web: http://www.bmiresearch.com © 2015 Business Monitor International Ltd All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International Ltd, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any means graphic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies or omissions affecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International Ltd makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2019 Part of BMI’s Industry Report & Forecasts Series Published by: BMI Research Copy deadline: February 2015 BMI Research Senator House 85 Queen Victoria Street London EC4V 4AB United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: subs@bmiresearch.com Web: http://www.bmiresearch.com © 2015 Business Monitor International Ltd All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International Ltd, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any means graphic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies or omissions affecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International Ltd makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 CONTENTS BMI Industry View ............................................................................................................... 7 SWOT .................................................................................................................................. 10 Freight Transport .................................................................................................................................... 10 Political ................................................................................................................................................. 12 Economic ............................................................................................................................................... 13 Operational Risk ..................................................................................................................................... 15 Industry Forecast .............................................................................................................. 17 Road Freight ......................................................................................................................................... 20 Table: Road Freight (Vietnam 2012-2019) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Inland Waterways .................................................................................................................................. 21 Table: Inland Waterway Freight (Vietnam 2012-2019) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Rail Freight .......................................................................................................................................... 23 Table: Vietnam Transport Network . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Table: Rail Freight (Vietnam 2012-2019) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Air Freight ............................................................................................................................................ 25 Table: Air Freight (Vietnam 2012-2019) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Maritime Freight ................................................................................................................................... 27 Table: Maritime Freight (Vietnam 2012-2019) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Trade ................................................................................................................................................... 29 Table: Trade Overview (Vietnam 2012-2019) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Table: Key Trade Indicators (Vietnam 2012-2019) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Table: Top Import Destinations, 2006-2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Table: Top Export Destinations, 2006-2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Market Overview ............................................................................................................... 33 Company Profile ................................................................................................................ 41 Vietnam Airlines Cargo ............................................................................................................................ 41 Political Outlook ................................................................................................................ 44 Domestic Politics ..................................................................................................................................... 44 Table: Vietnam Political Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 Long-Term Political Outlook ..................................................................................................................... 45 Oil Price Outlook ............................................................................................................... 49 Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts .................................................... 49 Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 Macroeconomic Forecasts ............................................................................................... 52 Expecting Sustained Growth Momentum In 2015 ........................................................................................... 52 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Table: Economic Activity (Vietnam 2009-2018) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 Demographic Forecast ..................................................................................................... 57 Table: Population Headline Indicators (Vietnam 1990-2025) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 Table: Key Population Ratios (Vietnam 1990-2025) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Vietnam 1990-2025) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 Table: Population By Age Group (Vietnam 1990-2025) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 Table: Population By Age Group % (Vietnam 1990-2025) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 Methodology ...................................................................................................................... 62 Industry Forecast Methodology ................................................................................................................ 62 Sector-Specific Methodology .................................................................................................................... 63 Sources ................................................................................................................................................ 64 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 5 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 BMI Industry View The Vietnamese economy is set to perform strongly in 2015, due to continued strong foreign direct investment (FDI), healthy export growth and ongoing efforts by the government to improve macroeconomic fundamentals. In turn, the country's freight industry is set to benefit as a result. In line with our bullish economic outlook for Vietnam, the country's real GDP growth accelerated to an impressive 7.0% in Q4 2014 from the revised 6.1% in the previous quarter. This in turn brought real GDP expansion for the year to 6.0%, surpassing the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 5.7% and marking Vietnam as one of the brightest growth spots in Asia. With that in mind, it is perhaps unsurprising that the Vietnamese freight industry is set to record healthy growth over the short and medium term. Our forecasts are relatively unchanged from last quarter, and will see Vietnam's freight modes remain healthy across the board. Road freight will be the outperformer in terms of year-on-year (y-o-y) at 6.00%, while the rail and air freight modes are set to see the same level of growth in 2015 (3.40%). The Vietnamese ports sector will also once again see strong annual growth in terms of tonnage handled. Headline Industry Data ■ 2015 rail freight tonnage is set to increase by 3.40% to 6.96mn tonnes. ■ 2015 air freight tonnage is forecast to rise by 3.40% to 195,640 tonnes. ■ Tonnage handled at the port of Ho Chi Minh City in 2015 is forecast to grow 7.61%, whereas tonnage handled at the port of Da Nang is forecast to increase 6.50%. ■ 2015 road freight tonnage is forecast to grow by 6.00% to 860.08mn tonnes. ■ 2015 total trade is forecast to rise by 6.65%. Key Industry Trends Major Growth Market For Air Cargo Operators: We believe that the air cargo market in Vietnam will expand rapidly in the medium-term (2015-2019) as the country's manufacturing sector diversifies into electronics and higher value goods production. Korean electronics giant Samsung is expanding its manufacturing interests in Vietnam and plans to utilise air freight as the main transport mode to export finished products. This strategy is highlighted by the company's plan to operate its own air cargo terminal to handle goods at Hanoi's Noi Bai International Airport, set to open in late 2015. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 7 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Vietjet Air Cargo To Invest In Freighters: Vietjet Air Cargo, an affiliate company of Vietnam-based Vietjet Air, intends to invest in B737 freighters and A330-200Fs to expand its global network and become a major cargo carrier in the Asia region. The company aims to expand its fleet size to 20 A320s by the end of 2014. The new aircrafts will be wet-leased in the first year and dry-leased in the second year, according to Vietjet Air Cargo CEO Do Xuan Quang. The company is also looking at airline partnership opportunities for long haul routes, reported The Loadstar. Impressive Box Growth To Continue In 2015: The port of Ho Chi Minh City is well placed to continue its impressive container throughput growth picture in 2015, albeit at a slightly slower rate than 2014. Over the next 12 months, box throughput will lead the way compared to tonnage throughput at the port (8.00% compared to 7.61%). This follows 2014's container throughput gains of 10.00% and tonnage throughput increase of 7.74%. We are likely to see box throughput reach 4.99mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) by the end of 2015, while tonnage throughput handled will reach 44.99mn tonnes in the same timeframe. Key Risks To Outlook The new international terminal at Hanoi Airport should offer significant upside risk in the future, once the facility is up and running. Operations are set to commence at the new USD645mn passenger terminal at Hanoi Airport, Vietnam. The first services using the terminal will take place on December 31 2014. Around 99% of the terminal construction has now been completed and the contractor has met the progress and quality targets set for the project. The new facility will operate as an international air terminal, with 96 check-in counters, 17 boarding gates, 10 self-service kiosks and 283 flight information display systems. The facility is 996m long and has 139,000sq m total gross floor area. The airport has plans to construct an additional two terminals as it attempts to boost capacity to 50mn passengers a year, while the freight sphere should also benefit. In other good news for the Vietnamese freight industry, Vietnam and South Korea have concluded negotiations for a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) during a meeting between Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung and South Korean President Park Geun-hye on the sidelines of the ASEANKorea Commemorative Summit. The FTA seeks to triple bilateral trade turnover to USD70bn by 2020. The FTA covers 17 areas, including products, services and investment and intellectual property; however, it excludes rice, a sensitive product for Korean farmers, as reported by the Korea Times. The two Asian nations have held nine rounds of FTA talks since August 2012, reported Thanh Nien News. However, downside risks do hover over the shipping sector going forward. Shipping companies operating in South East Asia are exposed to elevated security risks following the deadly escalation in pirate activity in © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 8 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 the region. The deteriorating security situation in South East Asian waters heightens risks for shipping companies, their employees, insurance firms, and global trade. A Vietnam flagged tanker, the M/T VP Asphalt 2, was attacked by pirates, southeast of Pulau Aur, Malaysia in the South China Sea, on December 7 2014. The Vietnam-bound tanker was carrying 16 Vietnamese crew members and 2,300 tonnes of bitumen when it was seized by seven armed pirates as the ship made its way from Singapore. The pirates proceeded to tie up crew members, with one of the crew being shot, before stealing personal possessions and escaping. The crewman died later that day from his injuries. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 9 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 SWOT Freight Transport Vietnam Freight Transport Industry SWOT Analysis Strengths ■ Vietnam's strong domestic growth rate, coupled with its geography - it stretches for thousands of kilometres on a north-south axis - creates a need for long-distance freight haulage. ■ A recovery of activity levels at the nation's ports in 2010 is expected to continue over the mid-term to 2018. ■ Vietnam's location on the South China Sea gives the country access to the main interAsian shipping routes, as well as access to the developing land transport links with ASEAN countries, allowing the country scope to develop its trade logistics. Weaknesses ■ The generally poor state of the road network. Despite new highway construction, only 13.5% of the network is considered to be in good condition. Just 26% of the network has two or more lanes and only 29% is tarred. ■ Traditionally low investment in rail, with the potential for cost-effective bulk rail freight being underutilised. ■ Decades of under-investment have left the country with a port infrastructure system that is poor by international standards. ■ Overcapacity is a growing problem. ■ Unresolved business environment issues and lack of significant improvement in access to infrastructure financing means that we remain very conservative on the growth potential of Vietnam's freight sector. ■ A slowdown affecting the US economy has a knock-on effect on Vietnam due to it being the Asian country's largest export partner. Opportunities ■ The beginnings of local commercial vehicle production, which will help improve the stock of lorries used by road haulage companies. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 10 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Vietnam Freight Transport Industry SWOT Analysis - Continued ■ Chinese investment could bring about much-needed improvements in the rail sector. ■ Growing international interest in Vietnam as a growth market within the box shipping sector. ■ The World Bank stated at the start of 2014 that improved infrastructure could improve the country's economy substantially. ■ Vietnamese Transport Minister Dinh La Thang wishes to see the government help boost inland waterway facilities and has been formulating policies likely to attract investments in the sector. Threats ■ Vietnam risks losing out to neighbouring countries if it is unable to develop its infrastructure to keep up with the pace of demand. ■ Vietnam is vulnerable to any slowdown in Chinese investment and to political risk in the sensitive South China Sea, subject to competing sovereignty claims. ■ A drop in international demand for exports would negatively affect Vietnam's freight transport sector. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 11 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Political SWOT Analysis Strengths ■ The Communist Party of Vietnam remains committed to market-oriented reforms and we do not expect major shifts in policy direction over the next five years. The oneparty system is generally conducive to short-term political stability. ■ Relations with the US have witnessed a marked improvement, and Washington sees Hanoi as a potential geopolitical ally in South East Asia. Weaknesses ■ Corruption among government officials poses a major threat to the legitimacy of the ruling Communist Party. ■ There is increasing (albeit still limited) public dissatisfaction with the leadership's tight control over political dissent. Opportunities ■ The government recognises the threat corruption poses to its legitimacy, and has acted to clamp down on graft among party officials. ■ Vietnam has allowed legislators to become more vocal in criticising government policies. This is opening up opportunities for more checks and balances within the one-party system. Threats ■ Although strong domestic control will ensure little change to Vietnam's political scene in the next few years, over the longer term, the one-party-state will probably be unsustainable. ■ Relations with China have deteriorated over recent years due to Beijing's more assertive stance over disputed islands in the South China Sea and domestic criticism of a large Chinese investment into a bauxite mining project in the central highlands, which could potentially cause wide-scale environmental damage. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 12 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Economic SWOT Analysis Strengths ■ Vietnam has been one of the fastest-growing economies in Asia in recent years, with GDP growth averaging 6.6% annually between 2000 and 2013. ■ The economic boom has lifted many Vietnamese out of poverty, with the official poverty rate in the country falling from 58% in 1993 to 17.2% in 2012. ■ Vietnam has been strengthening its trade and aid ties in a bid to increase exports and diversify its export sector. Weaknesses ■ Vietnam still suffers from fiscal deficits, leaving the economy vulnerable to global economic uncertainties. The fiscal deficit is dominated by substantial spending on social subsidies that could be difficult to withdraw. ■ The heavily-managed and weak currency reduces incentives to improve quality of exports, and also keeps import costs high, contributing to inflationary pressures. Opportunities ■ WTO membership and the upcoming ASEAN economic integration in 2015 should give Vietnam greater access to both foreign markets and capital, while making Vietnamese enterprises stronger through increased foreign competition. ■ The government has continued to move forward with market reforms, including privatisation of state-owned enterprises, addressing the high level of bad loans in the banking sector as well as liberalising the banking sector. ■ Urbanisation will continue to be a long-term growth driver. The UN forecasts the urban population rising from 32% of the population in 2013 to more than 50% by the early 2040s. Threats ■ Although inflation has subsided in 2014, complacency by the State Bank of Vietnam on this front could result in a decline in investment. ■ The potential for an escalation of political tensions with China over sovereign claims to parts of the South China Sea could have a negative impact on the economy. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 13 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 SWOT Analysis - Continued ■ Market reforms could progress at a much slower pace as the government remains cautious about ceding ownership to foreign investors. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 14 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Operational Risk SWOT Analysis Strengths ■ Vietnam has a high number of university graduates with skilled degrees and a high literacy rate for its income level. • In addition to a number of regional and international flight options, Vietnam has an extensive inland waterway system. ■ Strong contract enforcement capabilities increase security. • Vietnam's rate of violent crime is generally low, and foreigners are unlikely to be targeted. Weaknesses ■ High labour costs increase overall operating costs, and difficulty in hiring foreigners creates shortages of skilled labour. • Underdeveloped rail capacity overburdens the road network. • One of the worst tax administration systems in Asia. • The police force is under-equipped and under-resourced in many areas. Opportunities ■ Fairly high expenditures in secondary education by regional standards will help close gaps in access to education. • Vietnam is easily accessible from the main shipping routes, and growth in the number of port facilities will provide adequate capacity. • Declining trade barriers are making it easier to enter the market. • Increased foreign participation in the banking sector will increase the availability of funds for loans. Threats ■ Unequal access to secondary education will result in a lower-quality workforce in poorer regions. • Vietnam's reliance on imported oil poses risks in the form of energy and fuel shortages. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 15 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 SWOT Analysis - Continued • Corruption and inefficiency in the legal system. • Anti-Chinese violence, as seen in May 2014, could be a harbinger of wider political and social unrest. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 16 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Industry Forecast BMI View: We anticipate the Vietnamese freight industry will enjoy a healthy rate of tonnage growth in 2015. From an expenditure approach, the strong showing in 2014 is due largely to high foreign investor interest towards the country and the robust performance in the export sector, which are both buoying the freight mix in the country. Latest data published by the General Statistics Office showed that total foreign registered capital rose 9.6% to USD15.6bn in 2014, with the manufacturing sector receiving the bulk of it (71.6%). While there is the potential for volatility in emerging and frontier markets as the US looks to tighten its monetary policy over the coming quarters, we nevertheless expect a continuation of strong FDI inflows to Vietnam. This is corroborated by our view that Vietnam can continue to attract foreign investors, particularly manufacturing firms, as it offers them attractively low wages, strong demographics that will ensure a continual supply of workers as well as generous tax incentives. Meanwhile, exports grew by 8.7% to approximately USD149.1bn over the course of 2014. Given the country's export orientation to the US, which received about 19% of total Vietnamese outbound shipments in 2014, a recovering US economy will bode well for the export sector going forward. There is slight downside risk on the horizon however, due to tense relations at the time of writing between Vietnam and key trade partner China, which could have a slight detrimental impact on Vietnam's freight sector. We believe slowing growth in the country's manufacturing sector has likely been due to China's deployment of an oil rig in disputed waters off Vietnam's coast in May, which sparked an outbreak of antiChina violent protests in Vietnam. Several Chinese factories were damaged, while others were forced to shut down during the riot, affecting manufacturing orders as a result. With the Vietnamese government acting fast to stop a further escalation of violence, coupled with China's removal of its oil rig in July, renewed political stability in Vietnam will allow its resilient manufacturing sector to continue performing well. This will bode well for the gradual pick-up in growth momentum in the Vietnamese economy. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 17 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 GDP To Enjoy Healthy Medium Term Real GDP growth, % change y-o-y (2001-2019) 8 7 6 2019f 2018f 2017f 2016f 2015f 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 5 Vietnam - Real GDP growth, % y-o-y e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Asian Development Bank, General Statistics Office, BMI. To keep pace with growth, Vietnam will need to invest in its logistics sector, but BMI expects a lot of this investment to come from outside logistic and freight transport companies, which will be keen to enter and expand into this high-growth market. We believe that rapid urbanisation, driven by a healthy pipeline of government-led infrastructure projects over the next five years, will continue to spur rural-urban migration and foreign direct investment (FDI) into developed cities such as Ho Chi Minh and Hanoi. We have also already witnessed this to some extent in Vietnam's port sector, with considerable investment being made by container shipping lines and global port operators in the development of modern box terminals at Vietnam's ports. This investment in the country's maritime sector has ensured that Vietnam's manufacturing growth can be achieved with greater links between the country and its main export partner the US. Direct container shipping links between Vietnam and the US have been in operation since 2009, which have cut both time and cost, as previously Vietnamese shipments had to be transhipped via Singapore. Demand from the US for Vietnam's manufactured goods looks set to continue growing, with Vietnam's exports set to benefit from the slow but steady recovery in the US economy. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 18 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Vietnam's export outlook will also continue to be bolstered by China's growth outlook. Although we project China's economic growth to slow over the medium term, the country's real GDP growth outlook does remain robust. Vietnam plays a key role in China's coal supply chain. Vietnam is China's fifth-largest coal supplier providing the country with the thermal coal it requires for its power stations. Vietnam's role in this supply chain looks set to continue, although BMI highlights that China is trying to decrease its power sectors' reliance on coal. While we believe that the percentage supplied by coal fired power plants within China's overall energy mix will slip over the medium term, it will nevertheless remain above 70%. BMI believes that Vietnam's textile sector will also benefit from the development of China's middle class, as the country starts to import more from abroad. Meanwhile, the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which is a regional free-trade agreement being negotiated by 12 countries in the Asia Pacific region: Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the US and Vietnam. Speaking to Tuoi Tre (Youth) newspaper in January 2015, Ginny Foote, president and chief executive of Bay Global Strategies specializing in economic management consultation, said: 'I really hope that the TPP will be signed in six months. But it is difficult to predict because there are 12 member countries participating in the TPP, and each country has a different political background and different difficulties. The important thing now is that we should be ready for it.' Bad news for investment prospects in the freight sphere arrive due to foreign investors having to wait for at least 10 months for the government to ease restrictions on overseas shareholders, following the shelving of a 2013 proposal to raise ownership limits. According to Vu Bang, chairman of the State Securities Commission (SSC), policy makers must amend a plan by the Ministry of Finance that suggested increasing the foreign ownership limits on voting shares in a few industries from 49% to 60%. The SSC will work with the respective ministries to modify the plan and deal with inconsistencies with the current laws, according to the SSC's chairman. Bang stated that a rise in foreign limits will be eventually implemented; however, he refused to give details of the new proposal. Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung will need to grant approval to the plan (Bloomberg). © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 19 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Road Freight Road Dominates And Offers Best Links Into China Despite its low standing in road infrastructure, with the Global Economic Forum's Competitiveness Report 2014/15 ranking Vietnam's roads a very poor 127 out of 142 globally, and placing it last in comparison with 13 of its Asia peers, the country's logistics needs are, nonetheless, primarily met by road. In 2015 and beyond, we predict that road freight volumes in Vietnam will account for the majority of freight carried in the country. In 2015, we have maintained last quarter's forecast that year-on-year (y-o-y) tonnage throughput growth will come in at 6.00%, which is a healthy rate, but down slightly on 2014's estimated annual growth of 6.06%. That said, the heady heights of 2012's double-digit growth will not be achieved over the medium term. This scenario would see tonnage handled reach 860.1mn tonnes by the end of 2015. Over our forecast period to 2019, we predict average annual growth to come in at 6.94%. There is, however, upside risk to this forecast as more foreign logistics companies, with considerable road freight expertise, expand in Vietnam. Both FedEx and DHL have expanded their role in Vietnam in recent times. While some companies are breaking into Vietnam by developing their own operations in the country, others are getting a head start by acquiring and joining up with domestic freight operators. This is the route CEVA Logistics has taken entering into a joint venture with its long-term business partner Indo Trans Logistics Group. Road freight plays a key role not only in Vietnam's domestic logistics sector, but also in the country's export supply chain. Road is the main form of transport linking Vietnam's factories to the country's ports and also plays a key role in linking Vietnam with its second-largest export partner China. Vietnam's northern border links the country with the south of China. Road links continue to be developed between the two and with them trucking services. Kerry Asia Road Transport (Kart), for example, offers a twice-weekly trucking link connecting Shenzhen and Hanoi. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 20 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Table: Road Freight (Vietnam 2012-2019) 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 722,156.40 765,070.40 811,395.88 860,079.63 915,984.81 980,103.74 1,055,150.77 1,134,940.86 Road freight tonnes, % y-o-y 10.40 5.94 6.06 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.66 7.56 Road freight tonneskm (mn ton km) 43,902.40 46,790.70 50,093.61 53,800.54 57,996.98 62,660.95 67,558.72 72,766.04 Road freight tonneskm, % y-o-y 9.40 6.58 7.06 7.40 7.80 8.04 7.82 7.71 Road Freight Tonnes (000) e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam Inland Waterways Mekong Offers Trade Links With Neighbours Vietnam's inland waterways play a considerable role in the country's freight transport sector, making it the second-largest freight transport mode in the country. In 2015, we once more anticipate a healthy growth picture with gains of 6.34% expected (maintaining last quarter's forecast), which will be slightly down on 2014's estimated y-o-y growth of 6.68% to reach 192.89mn tonnes. Over our forecast period, we anticipate average annual growth of 6.25%. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 21 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Mekong Offers Trade Connections Map Of The Mekong River Source: BMI Vietnam's inland waterways stretch for 47,130km and the country's dense network of waterways ranks its seventh in the world in terms of length. The country's inland waterways include the Mekong River, which enables freight connections with Vietnam's neighbours. Although we highlight that the River's full potential has not been reached and so development in the River is an area for potential investment. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 22 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Table: Inland Waterway Freight (Vietnam 2012-2019) 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f Inland Waterway Freight Tonnes (000) 168,493.00 180,812.70 192,886.88 205,112.82 218,092.49 231,697.58 245,984.72 261,174.82 Inland waterway freight tonnes, % y-o-y 5.20 7.31 6.68 6.34 6.33 6.24 6.17 6.18 Inland Waterway freight tonnes-km (mn ton km) 37,018.30 39,344.40 42,365.17 45,614.18 49,063.50 52,679.03 56,475.80 60,512.54 Inland Waterway freight tonnes-km % y-o-y 7.70 6.28 7.68 7.67 7.56 7.37 7.21 7.15 e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam Rail Freight Rail Network Still Lacking Despite rail's potential as an overland trade link for Vietnam with its three neighbours, the mode's role in the country's freight transport sector remains small. In 2014, we estimate that Vietnam's rail freight volumes accounted for a negligible percentage of the total with the country's rail network transporting just 6.73mn tonnes of freight. However, the Vietnam Railway Administration is attempting to persuade the country's Transport Ministry to appraise and approve a USD10bn plan to upgrade the North-South railway in the country, it was reported at the end of November 2014. The move would be long overdue and provide major upside risk to our forecasts. In 2015 we forecast the rail freight sector to increase by 3.40%, a figure we expect to rise again to 3.70% in 2016. Positive growth has been lacking from this sector over recent years, but is set to return at least over our forecast period, with an average annual growth of 4.00% pencilled in between 2015 and 2019. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 23 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 There are two key factors that we believe have held back Vietnam's rail freight development and will continue to do so. Table: Vietnam Transport Network Length (km) Road 206,633 Railway 2,632 Inland Waterway 47,130 Source: CIA World Factbook (accessed January 21 2014) The first is the quality of Vietnam's railway infrastructure. The World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report 2014/15 gives Vietnam's rail infrastructure a very low ranking, placing it 99th globally out of 123 countries measured. A major problem for Vietnam's rail freight development is the relative shortness of the country's rail network. Vietnam's railway lines extend for just 2,632km; this compares with the country's 206,633km network of roads and 47,130km network of inland waterways. The second drawback for freight rail development in Vietnam is its gauge incompatibility with China. Vietnam's network is dominated by narrow gauge, which accounts for 80% of the total. While the country has some standard gauge track, this system only accounts for 20% of the total. This means that rail freight trade between Vietnam and China is slowed by gauge changes, making road freight a more cost- and time-effective alternative; this stymies potential rail-freight projects between the two nations. BMI highlights that developments in Vietnam's rail network are taking place, but these have been focused on expanding the country's passenger network (e.g., a planned high-speed railway link between Vietnam and Laos). We do see upside risk presenting itself by the news reported in December 2014 by International Railway Journal that China had 'marked the completion of a key international rail project in its southern Yunnan province on December 1 with the opening of a 142km line from Mengzi to Hekou on the border with Vietnam'. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 24 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Table: Rail Freight (Vietnam 2012-2019) 2012 Rail freight tonnes ('000) 2018f 2019f 7,003.50 6,525.90 6,729.53 6,958.33 7,215.79 7,504.42 7,834.61 8,187.17 Rail freight tonnes, % y-o-y Rail freight tonnes-km (mn ton km) -3.87 2013 2015f 4,024.60 3,804.10 3,903.01 4,020.10 4,148.74 4,289.80 4,444.23 4,613.11 -5.48 2.60 3.40 3.00 3.70 2017f 4.50 -3.30 3.12 2016f 4.40 Rail freight tonnes-km, % y-o-y -6.82 2014e 3.20 4.00 3.40 3.60 3.80 e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam Air Freight On Growth Trajectory As Vietnam Gets Better Connected Vietnam's air freight sector may currently only account for a small percentage of the country's freight transport industry, but growth is set to be fairly robust over the medium term. The government has ambitious plans to modernise and expand the country's airport infrastructure over the long term. Comments made in August 2014 by the International Air Transport Association that the country must expand its network are still applicable. Since early 2012, Vietnam has announced that it was in the search for foreign investors to help construct two international airports: the USD1.2bn Van Don International airport in the northern province of Quang Ninh and the USD10bn Long Thanh International airport in the southern province of Dong Nai. For 2015, we continue to forecast that the Vietnamese air freight sector will grow by 3.40% y-o-y, up from 2014's 3.00%, to reach 195,640 tonnes. Over the forecast period, we predict Vietnam's air freight levels to grow on average per annum by a healthy 4.46% to reach 235,310 tonnes. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 25 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Taking Off Air Freight, Tonnes 000, % Change y-o-y (2010-2019) 300 40 200 20 100 0 Air Freight Tonnes (000) (LHS) 2019f 2018f 2017f 2016f 2015f 2014e 2013 2012 2011 -20 2010 0 Air freight tonnes % y-o-y (RHS) e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Statistics Agency, BMI BMI expects the increase of air freight connections for Vietnam will come through the development of intra-Asia air freight routes. In 2012, Air China Cargo and Malaysia's MASKargo added services to Ho Chi Minh City. Vietnam is also becoming globally better connected by air. In 2012, Emirates added a link with the country and Dubai, and in 2013, Finnair announced that it planned to launch new cargo routes to Hanoi. While still at the development stage, Vietnam is seeking to play a greater role in the electronics supply chain, a key source of demand for air freight transport options. One example has been the impact the local production of iPhones has had on China's air freight sector. Plans are in place for Vietnam-based facilities to produce Microsoft phones, iPods, PlayStations and Sony laptops, which will all drive up air freight demand. Vietnam's pharmaceutical sector exports much of its output, but the country also imports a lot. Vietnam's trade in pharmaceuticals is forecast to grow in the double digits in percentage terms over the medium term. The global pharmaceutical sector is increasingly turning to the aviation sector to meet its freight needs, with © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 26 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 the sector offering savings in transport time, along with environment controlled options, which are vital for the transport of some medicines and vaccinations. Table: Air Freight (Vietnam 2012-2019) 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f Air Freight Tonnes (000) 178.70 183.70 189.21 195.64 203.27 212.42 223.04 235.31 Air freight tonnes % y-o-y -10.78 2.80 3.00 3.40 3.90 4.50 5.00 5.50 Air freight tonnes-km (mn ton km) 480.90 469.80 477.79 489.73 504.42 522.08 542.96 567.39 12.70 -2.31 1.70 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 Air freight tonnes-km % y-o-y e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam Maritime Freight Vietnam's maritime freight sector is performing very well at the moment and this positivity is set to stretch into the medium term too at the country's two largest ports - Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang; annual growth will be 7.61% at the former and 6.50% at the latter in 2015. Vietnam Catching The Eye Of Shippers Taiwan-based Evergreen Line and South Korea-based Hanjin Shipping announced a new intra-Asia service at the end of 2013, which should continue to provide upside risk for the sector going forward. The new intra-Asia service, which calls at the port of Ho Chi Minh, will boost both companies' intra-Asia operations and we have long highlighted intra-Asia trade as a region of strong growth and we note the port of Ho Chi Minh to be a specific beneficiary of the new route - with the launch of the service offering upside risk to our forecast for the port. Vietnam's ports and shipping sectors play a role in the global dry, liquid and container sector. As highlighted earlier Vietnam plays a considerable role in China's coal supply chain, with the dry bulk commodity being shipped out of Vietnam and into China's main coal port of Qinhuangdao. Vietnam is an oil-producing nation, but its consumption needs have come to outweigh its supply and so the country is making use of the liquid bulk shipping sector to import oil. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 27 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Getting Better Connected UNCTADstat Liner Connectivity Index For Asia, 2004 & 2013 Source: UNCTADstat The development of Vietnam's liner connections has been highlighted by data from UNCTAD's liner connectivity index. In 2004, Vietnam was ranked lowest out of its 14 Asian peers in terms of container line connectivity, but by 2013, it had jumped up the rankings to ninth place out of its 14 Asian neighbours. For more information on data and analysis of Vietnam's shipping sector, please see BMI's Vietnam Shipping Report. Table: Maritime Freight (Vietnam 2012-2019) 2012 Port of Ho Chi Minh City (Saigon New) throughput, tonnes '000* 2018f 2019f 36,029.4 38,866.7 41,876.1 45,063.9 48,511.0 52,266.6 56,275.3 60,677.1 Port of Ho Chi Minh City (Saigon New) throughput, tonnes, % y-oy* 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 7.7 7.9 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.8 Port of Da Nang throughput, tonnes '000 4,423.0 5,010.2 5,360.9 5,709.4 6,043.2 6,406.9 6,795.1 7,221.3 Port of Da Nang throughput, tonnes, % y-o-y 14.3 13.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.3 *2011-2013 is a BMI estimate. e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Port authorities © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 28 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Trade Table: Trade Overview (Vietnam 2012-2019) 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f Imports, real growth, % y-o-y 9.09 7.90 7.50 7.50 7.30 7.20 7.00 7.00 Exports, real growth, % y-o-y 15.71 6.00 5.92 5.80 6.20 6.60 6.80 7.20 Total Trade, real growth, % y-o-y 12.40 6.95 6.71 6.65 6.75 6.90 6.90 7.10 118.98 133.50 147.25 163.48 185.90 214.82 243.56 275.90 5.86 12.20 10.30 11.02 13.72 15.56 13.38 13.28 124.43 137.15 149.05 162.87 183.31 210.64 238.37 270.53 16.46 10.22 8.68 9.27 12.55 14.91 13.16 13.49 243.41 270.65 296.30 326.34 369.21 425.46 481.92 546.43 11.03 11.19 9.48 10.14 13.13 15.23 13.27 13.39 Imports, USDbn Import growth, % y-o-y Exports, USDbn Export growth, % y-o-y Total trade, USDbn Total trade growth, % y-o-y e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam, BMI Table: Key Trade Indicators (Vietnam 2012-2019) 2012 2013e 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f Agricultural raw materials, exports, USDmn 4,401.58 4,499.68 5,002.93 5,597.12 6,805.54 7,600.68 9,023.96 9,993.67 Agricultural raw materials, exports, % y-oy 4.24 2.23 11.18 11.88 21.59 11.68 18.73 10.75 Agricultural raw materials, imports, USDmn 3,430.55 4,624.12 5,025.55 5,491.54 6,044.64 7,059.68 7,863.83 9,025.06 Agricultural raw materials, imports, % y-oy -17.16 34.79 8.68 9.27 10.07 16.79 11.39 14.77 Ores and metals, exports, USDmn 980.08 1,095.55 1,197.01 1,314.78 1,488.22 1,721.80 1,955.17 2,231.36 Ores and metals, exports, % y-o-y 21.28 11.78 9.26 9.84 13.19 15.70 13.55 14.13 Ores and metals, imports, USDmn 4,262.93 5,364.30 5,955.16 6,652.78 7,479.18 8,814.75 9,918.20 11,383.33 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 29 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Key Trade Indicators (Vietnam 2012-2019) - Continued Ores and metals, imports, % y-o-y Iron and steel, exports, USDmn Iron and steel, exports, % y-oy Iron and steel, imports, USDmn Iron and steel, imports, % y-oy Manufactured goods, exports, USDmn Manufactured goods, exports, % y-o-y Manufactured goods, imports, USDmn Manufactured goods, imports, % y-o-y Fuels, exports, USDmn Fuels, exports, % y-o-y Fuels, imports, USDmn Fuels, imports, % y-o-y 2012 2013e 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f -6.13 25.84 11.01 11.71 12.42 17.86 12.52 14.77 2,203.39 2,609.31 2,867.48 3,167.17 3,663.54 4,220.37 4,863.03 5,537.86 -1.40 18.42 9.89 10.45 15.67 15.20 15.23 13.88 8,471.23 10,158.45 11,226.52 12,487.58 13,503.73 16,240.15 17,794.17 20,691.77 10.51 11.23 8.14 20.26 9.57 16.28 71,085.40 77,803.42 84,910.60 93,160.58 106,750.14 122,130.26 140,027.65 158,458.16 9.13 9.72 14.59 14.41 14.65 13.16 80,785.92 89,399.19 98,638.23 109,546.75 124,514.01 144,018.93 163,221.96 185,023.47 10.33 11.06 13.66 15.66 13.33 13.36 16,530.36 17,377.78 18,743.60 20,329.04 21,924.90 25,573.58 28,123.26 32,173.72 7.86 8.46 7.85 16.64 9.97 14.40 15,190.13 16,042.55 17,723.62 19,708.46 22,365.62 25,959.22 29,437.56 33,408.46 11.20 13.48 16.07 13.40 13.49 17.23 14.31 9.20 50.17 21.22 19.92 9.45 10.66 5.13 5.61 10.48 e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: UNCTAD, BMI © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 30 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Table: Top Import Destinations, 2006-2013 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 7,391 12,710 15,974 16,441 20,019 24,594 28,786 53,458 16.5 20.3 19.8 23.5 24.0 23.5 25.8 31.9 3,908 5,340 7,255 6,976 9,761 13,176 15,536 23,196 8.7 8.5 9.0 10.0 11.7 12.6 13.9 13.8 6,274 7,614 9,378 4,248 4,101 6,391 6,690 11,978 14.0 12.1 11.6 6.1 4.9 6.1 6.0 7.1 4,702 6,189 8,240 7,468 9,016 10,400 11,603 11,575 10.5 9.9 10.2 10.7 10.8 10.0 10.4 6.9 1,441 1,951 2,633 826 860 970 970 8,315 3.2 3.1 3.3 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 5.0 TOTAL 44,891 62,765 80,714 69,949 83,365 104,510 111,640 167,791 TOTAL, top 5 countries, USDm 23,717 33,804 43,480 35,960 43,758 55,530 63,584 108,521 52.8 53.9 53.9 51.4 52.5 53.1 57.0 64.7 China, Mainland, USDmn China, Mainland, USDmn, % of total Korea, Republic Of, USDmn Korea, Republic Of, USDmn, % of total Singapore, USDmn Singapore, USDmn, % of total Japan, USDmn Japan, USDmn, % of total China,P.R.:Hong Kong, USDmn China,P.R.:Hong Kong, USDmn, % of total % from top 5 trade partners Source: IMF. N.B. Total exports is from Direction of Trade Statistics, consequently there may be some discrepancy with data used elsewhere in this report © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 31 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Table: Top Export Destinations, 2006-2013 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 7,845 10,105 11,887 11,356 14,238 16,928 19,668 22,930 19.7 20.8 19.0 19.9 20.4 18.2 17.8 17.6 3,243 3,646 4,850 4,909 7,309 11,125 12,388 15,351 8.1 7.5 7.7 8.6 10.5 12.0 11.2 11.8 5,240 6,090 8,468 6,292 7,728 10,781 13,060 12,917 Japan, USDmn, % of total 13.2 12.5 13.5 11.0 11.1 11.6 11.8 9.9 Korea, Republic Of, USDmn 843 1,243 1,794 2,065 3,092 4,715 5,580 6,523 Korea, Republic Of, USDmn, % of total 2.1 2.6 2.9 3.6 4.4 5.1 5.0 5.0 1,445 1,855 2,073 1,885 2,373 3,367 4,095 5,683 3.6 3.8 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.7 4.4 TOTAL 39,826 48,561 62,685 57,196 69,820 92,881 110,795 130,551 TOTAL, top 5 countries, USDm 18,616 22,939 29,072 26,507 34,740 46,916 54,792 63,403 46.7 47.2 46.4 46.3 49.8 50.5 49.5 48.6 United States, USDmn United States, USDmn, % of total China, Mainland, USDmn China, Mainland, USDmn, % of total Japan, USDmn Germany, USDmn Germany, USDmn, % of total % from top 5 trade partners Source: IMF. N.B. Total exports is from Direction of Trade Statistics, consequently there may be some discrepancy with data used elsewhere in this report © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 32 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Market Overview We expect Vietnam's robust economic growth momentum in 2014 to be carried over into 2015, largely on the back of greater foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, continued healthy export growth as well as continual efforts by the Vietnamese government to improve macroeconomic fundamentals, which should all dovetail to provide upside risk to Vietnam's freight industry. As such, we forecast the Vietnamese economy to continue growing at a strong pace of 6.4% in real terms in 2015. Vietnam's export sector continues to be a driver of growth for the country, and we forecast this trend to remain in play over the coming months. Exports for the first six months of 2014 expanded by a robust 14.9% year-on-year (y-o-y), and saw the accumulated trade surplus rise to USD1.3bn in H114. Exports were primarily driven by strong growth in textiles, telephones and footwear of 18.2%, 17.1% and 21.9%, respectively, which together account for approximately 35% of the total and provide upside risk to our freight forecasts going forward. Moreover, we expect exports to continue driving growth given that the Vietnamese government has been making a concerted push to build diplomatic and trade ties with many countries and is negotiating several free trade agreements. One of the most important ones is the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which could be signed by as early as 2015, and will certainly provide a welcome boost to Vietnam's freight mix. Risks To Outlook: China, From Friend To Foe Although we do not believe that the political tensions between Hanoi and Beijing will result in military conflict, there are non-negligible risks of an economic backlash. Indeed, the Chinese government has temporarily stopped Chinese state-owned companies from bidding for new contracts in Vietnam, which could see investment flows decline substantially over the coming quarters, posing downside risks to Vietnam's growth outlook. China accounted for 21.3% of foreign investment in Vietnam in 2013, approximately 14.5% of Vietnam's exports, and about 27% of all visitors this year. As such, a sustained economic backlash could have a more severe impact on Vietnam's growth outlook. An ongoing maritime dispute with China in the South China Sea has intensified in recent months and, while both parties have engaged in bilateral talks to resolve the rift, a breakthrough is unlikely. We believe that the dispute has provided the US with an opportunity to accelerate its 'pivot' to Asia. Recently, Washington is moving closer to lifting an arms embargo on Vietnam, paving the way for weapon sales to Vietnam to help it cope with growing external threats from China. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 33 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Stronger Ties With Europe We expect Vietnam to continue fostering strong political and economic ties with Europe, with several high level delegation meetings between both parties expected to take place over the coming years. Following the recent official visit by EU High Representative Catherine Ashton and European Commission President Manuel Barroso to Vietnam, Vietnam's Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung has recently made a visit to Europe, with the Europe-Vietnam free trade agreement high on his agenda. External Sector To Provide Tailwind We expect the external sector (exports and foreign investment) to provide a tailwind to economic activity in the coming quarters. From a trade perspective, exports rose by 14.1% y-o-y in the first quarter, which helped bring the trade surplus to USD1.0bn for the first three months of the year and we expect this trend to remain in place. Indeed, the Vietnamese government has been making substantial efforts to promote trade and investment ties with other countries, and we believe it will help underpin exports over the coming months. A case in point was the fourth round of negotiations between Vietnam and South Korea for a bilateral free-trade agreement which took place in March, and officials are looking to conclude negotiations by the end of 2014. Moreover, Vietnam has been forging very strong trade and investment ties with Japan in order to attract funding and expertise to invest and develop the country's infrastructure and manufacturing sectors. While FDI fell by 30% y-o-y in Q114, it was not all bearish in our view. First, the number of projects increased by 32% y-o-y and second, the origin of the investments was much more diversified, which could suggests that it is more sustainable. Third, we believe that foreign investment will continue to pick up as the business environment becomes increasingly attractive, particularly as more State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) are restructured and the limits on foreign ownership are raised. Moreover, Vietnam still boasts competitive wages compared to other manufacturing hubs such as China, Indonesia and Malaysia, which bodes well for cost competitiveness. Signs Of Strong Momentum Abound We witnessed some highly positive data in the third quarter of 2013 that indicate strong momentum for growth into 2014. We highlight the rebound in manufacturing production activity, with the HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) recording a robust 51.5 reading in September, the strongest reading since April 2011 (see 'PMI Surprises To The Upside, VNI Testing Resistance', October 3 2013). More importantly, FDI inflows into the country have accelerated significantly in recent months and are expected © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 34 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 to surpass the government's full-year target of USD13bn - usually an indication of improving business sentiment, and a precursor for an acceleration in private sector investment. We believe that the positive ripple effects from the factors above will serve as strong tailwinds for 2014 growth. Chinese and US demand remain integral factors influencing the performance of the Vietnamese freight picture over the medium term. In terms of the former, China's real GDP grew by 7.7% in Q413, slightly above consensus expectations of 7.6%. For the year as a whole the economy also grew by 7.7%, which matches the performance seen in 2012. While a detailed breakdown of GDP by expenditure is unavailable as of yet, we do not expect its release to reveal a great deal of economic rebalancing taking place within the Chinese economy. The traditional drivers of real estate and infrastructure construction continue to dominate the economy. In terms of the US, we believe the appropriations bill recently passed by the US House of Representatives and Senate, and which President Barack Obama is expected to sign, may mark an easing in long-running partisan warfare over fiscal policy. Furthermore, we believe the deal will have positive ramifications for the economy in 2014, while still allowing for fiscal consolidation over the medium term. Finally, the bipartisan spending package sets the stage for a crisis-free resolution to the debt ceiling debate, which will come up in the weeks ahead. The appropriations package provides USD1.1trn for fiscal year 2014 (FY14), which runs through September 30, in line with a budget deal worked out between Democrats and Republicans in late 2013 that we noted as a meaningful first step toward de-escalating tensions over fiscal issues (see 'Deal Avoids Another Shutdown, But Future Progress Uncertain', December 11 2013). That legislation allowed higher spending caps in FY14 than those initially envisioned by the budget sequester that went into effect in early 2013, reducing the drag the fiscal drag on the economy, one reason we see real GDP growth accelerating to 2.8% this year from our estimate of 1.8% in 2013. We believe that greater clarity about the trajectory of fiscal policy this year will allow the US Federal Reserve to continue reducing extraordinary monetary stimulus to the economy, eliminating its quantitative easing programme by end-2014. Domestically, over the longer term, imports will be boosted by Vietnam's young population, as younger populations are generally more supportive of private consumption. The country has a population of 90.7mn, according to estimates for 2013 by BMI, 60% of which is under 35. We forecast that the population will be 94.1mn by 2017, with 57% under 35, and will rise to 97.7mn by 2022. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 35 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Road Freight Remains The Dominant Force In Tonnage Terms Road transport is the most advanced in terms of freight sector privatisation and is by far the dominant mode for freight in Vietnam, with a market share of around 75% of domestic cargo. Few foreign companies are present in the market and there are many small, family owned road freight companies operating informally. Vietnam has a national road network of 180,549km, according to the latest data provided by the CIA's World Factbook. BMI believes the sector requires substantial investment as the quality of Vietnam's road infrastructure was judged by the World Economic Forum (WEF) to be very poor, ranking 102nd out of 142 countries surveyed in its Global Competitiveness Report 2013-2014, which has improved from 123rd in 2011-12. Vietnam's railway transport sector has just one operator, the Vietnam Railway Corporation (VRC), established in April 2003 as a state corporation operating railway transport and related services. Vietnam's rail network totals 2,632km. The network is of mixed-gauge, comprising 2,105km of 1.000m gauge and 527km of 1.435m gauge. The Vietnam Railway Administration has urged the transport ministry to appraise and approve a USD10bn plan to upgrade the North-South railway in the country, it was reported at the end of November 2014. According to the plan, the trans-Vietnam railway, from Hanoi railway station to the Hoa Hung railway station in Ho Chi Minh City, will be upgraded to grade II railway standards, from grade I. The average speed will increase from the current 50km/h to 80-90 km/h for passenger trains and 50-60 km/h for cargo trains. The upgrade plan will be implemented in three phases. The Hanoi-Vinh section will be upgraded in the USD580mn first phase, the Nha Trang-Saigon section will be upgraded in the USD5.7bn second phase and the remaining projects will be upgraded in phase three. Vietnam's Ministry of Transport has decided to classify the country's airports with an aim to attract investment in the country's aviation sector. The ministry believes that it is a difficult task to attract investment in the sector as it requires huge investment capital and high techniques and a longer time frame to take back the investment capital. The country recorded an increase in capacity of its domestic airports from 6mn passengers in 2000 to 52mn in 2012. Meanwhile, an airport development programme approved in 2009 is moving ahead as per the schedule, according to the Civil Aviation Authorities of Vietnam. Vietnam is currently operating a state-owned airline Vietnam Airlines, as well as private airlines, namely Vietjet Air, Air Mekong and a foreign invested © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 36 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 airline Jetstar Pacific. Additionally, the government has also granted approval to the development of 25 airports. Latest data puts the total amount of airports in Vietnam with paved runways at 37, with seven unpaved. This total puts the country in a poor 97th place in comparison with other countries. Road Continues To Dominate Freight Mix Vietnam Freight Transport Mode Breakdown (% of total), 2013 Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam Vietnam's dense river and canal network provides the country with a highly developed inland waterway system of 17,702km. This is the second largest sub-sector involved in domestic cargo transport, accounting for 25-30% of total transport volumes. Vietnam's seaport network comprises of many small and medium-sized entities, with inefficient distribution. Most large ports are located on rivers, such as Hai Phong and Ho Chi Minh City, with limited depth at the entrance. Some ports are located in big cities, thus making it difficult to connect with other modes of transport for cargo transfer due to traffic congestion. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 37 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 BMI does highlight, however, the substantial investments APM Terminal has made in Cai Mep International Terminal (CMIT) since it opened in March 2011 as an important driver of growth. In addition to helping to construct the port, which it did through a joint venture (JV) with Saigon Port and Vietnam National Shipping Lines (Vinalines), APMT purchased two laden reach stackers, an empty reach stacker, two empty container handlers and a 25-tonne forklift - all of which were delivered by Konecranes in 2011. Weak infrastructure is one of the main factors holding back Vietnam's shipping sector - the country ranks 98th out of 145 countries on the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report 2013-14 on the Quality of Port Infrastructure - an improvement on recent years. As such, APMT's commitment to improving CMIT's facilities is an important step both for the terminal and the country's shipping sector as a whole. The Vietnamese government also plans to deepen the port of Ho Chi Minh City's draught, allowing larger vessels to access the facility. BMI notes that these works are badly needed, as we are seeing a growing trend for shipping lines to order larger container vessels. The ongoing problems evidenced at Vinalines are indicative of a deeper malaise in the Vietnamese shipping sector. State-owned shipbuilder Vinashin was bailed out in 2010 when its USD4.5bn debt threatened to bring down the entire Vietnamese economy. Widespread investment in the country's infrastructure is necessary if Vietnam is to compete with regional peers. We continue to believe there is no end in sight to the ongoing maritime dispute between Vietnam and China over their sovereign claims to parts of the South China Sea. Both countries have maintained a firm stance regarding their rights to the Spratly and Paracel Islands in the disputed waters. While both parties have resumed talks following heightened political tensions resulting from the deployment of a Chinese oil rig off Vietnam's coast in May 2014, a lasting solution to the maritime dispute will be hard to come by. We believe the ongoing maritime dispute will continue to weigh on relations between both countries over the coming years. While tensions have somewhat eased in H214, we see a growing risk of renewed maritime tensions over the coming quarters. We therefore maintain our short-term political risk index for Vietnam at 76.9 out of 100 for now, but may look to downgrade it should tensions escalate. Investment And Development Outlook The Vietnamese transport sector requires vast levels of investment. The majority of infrastructure investment in Vietnam over the next 10 years will be in the transport sphere, accounting for 65% by the end of 2021. Vietnam still suffers from a significant deficit in transportation infrastructure, and we believe the © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 38 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Vietnamese government will continue to develop this sector over the medium term. This is reflected in our forecast for transport infrastructure industry value, which is expected to grow by an average of 3.5% y-o-y between 2012 and 2016. According to our key infrastructure projects database, there are USD171bn-worth of infrastructure projects planned or currently under way in Vietnam's transport sector. One of the most expensive of these is a USD3.6bn plan to build the Van Phong International Entrepot. The project will begin with the construction of two deep water ports in Dam Mon that will be able to accommodate container ships with tonnage of 9,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) and the capacity to handle 0.5mn TEUs a year. The project is currently suspended, however, due to an ongoing review of geological conditions at the site. Meanwhile, in Q214 it was announced that Vietnam's Ministry of Transport is planning to construct an elevated monorail system to ease its traffic congestion and connect the existing railway routes in the country's capital Hanoi. The monorail system will be developed on a design, construct, operate and transfer basis. The project will involve the construction of 14 stations. The monorail trains will run 4.5m above the ground at an average speed of 70km per hour. The air freight sector will undoubtedly benefit from the planned construction work on a new passenger terminal at Long Thanh international airport. Costing an estimated USD6.7bn, the work would also incorporate a new runway, providing capacity for 100mn passengers a year. A tender for investment consultancy work was under development as of December 2011. The Vietnamese province of Dong Nai is to clear land near the proposed Long Thanh International Airport in order to develop infrastructure facilities, it was announced in April 2013. Under a plan submitted to the government, 21,000 hectares in three communes in Cam My District and seven communes in Long Thanh are to be cleared for establishing new residential and urban areas, industrial zones, research institutes and international service centres. The airport, which was approved in 2011 at a cost of USD6.74bn, will be the country's ninth international airport, serving 100mn passengers and 5mn tonnes of goods every year after becoming operational in 2020. Meanwhile, Shipowners in Vietnam offloaded more vessels from their fleets by the close of 2013. Firms planning to pare down their fleets include the Vinashin Joint Stock Company and Northern Shipping. Market analysts have previously warned that the economic potential of the Vietnamese shipping market has been limited by an excessive focus on non-core businesses. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 39 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 In the road freight sphere, bad news was delivered at the end of October 2013, when it was announced that the Vietnamese government has granted approval to Hanoi General Export-Import Joint Stock Company (Geleximco) to withdraw from the build-transfer model-based Hoa Lac-Hoa Binh expressway linking Hanoi with localities in the northwest. The company invested USD17mn in the project, with USD2mn in the construction and USD12.4mn in land acquisition, over three years, according to the transport ministry. 'As the investment cost rose significantly and the property market at present is nearly frozen, it is impossible for us to reach the project deadline', Geleximco General Director Vu Van Tien said (Intellasia). The government has also approved a proposal by the country's Ministry of Transport and Ministry of Planning and Investment to alter the project's investment model to public-private partnership to make it more feasible and obtain official development assistance. In terms of upside risk, the sale of Vietnam's first expressway concession to an overseas investor highlights the growing maturity of Vietnam's roads sector and we expect more of such concessions to be launched over the coming years. On October 28, an international consortium led by India-based road developer IL&FS Transportation Networks (ITNL) signed a contract to acquire a 70% stake in an expressway project that connects the capital city of Vietnam, Hanoi, with the port city of Hai Phong. The contract was signed with state-owned entity VIDIFI, the owner of the 105km expressway project. Besides ITNL, the international consortium consists of Philippine-based Strategic Alliance Holdings and Hong Kong-based Tung Sing Group. Under the terms of the contract, VIDIFI and the ITNL-led consortium are expected to form a joint-venture (JV) to manage the project under a 30-year period. About 70% of the expressway is completed, with the rest scheduled to be finished by the end of 2015. UAE-based Etihad Cargo has started a new freight service between Abu Dhabi and the Noi Bài International Airport in Hanoi, Vietnam, which should provide a boost to the air freight sector in Vietnam. The company will deploy an Airbus A330-200F freighter for the new service, offering a heavy uplift capacity of 60 tonnes. The new service will be dedicated to the transport of raw materials, consumer goods and perishables to Hanoi. The service will also cater to the Gulf region, Europe and Africa with large quantities of electronics and textiles during the return flight. The new service will enable the company to capitalise on the strong import and export demand to and from Vietnam and the rest of South East Asia, while offering growing customer base with more choice for transporting goods globally, according to Etihad Airways Chief Strategy and Planning Officer Kevin Knight (Air Cargo World). © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 40 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Company Profile Vietnam Airlines Cargo SWOT Analysis Strengths ■ Vietnam Airlines Cargo is the main air cargo provider in Vietnam. ■ The recent green light given to the purchase of Jetstar Pacific will only strengthen the company's domestic position. Weaknesses ■ Unlike its peers, Vietnam Airlines Cargo does not have a freighter fleet and is reliant on using the bellyholds of its parent company's planes. Opportunities ■ The air carrier is well placed to benefit from Vietnam's growing role in the trade sector. The country has flooded money into the development of the country's port sector, but BMI believes aviation also stands to benefit. ■ Vietnam Airlines is to reportedly run flights between the UK and Vietnam, which could result in cargo being transported in the bellyholds of aircrafts in the future. ■ At the end of 2012, Vietnam Airlines announced that it was to introduce a new air route linking the Vietnamese capital with Jakarta, in a bid to 'boost tourism and economic links between Vietnam and Indonesia', according to Bloomberg Business Week. Jakarta is now connected to six ASEAN countries in total. ■ Vietnam Airlines has increased the frequency of its flights to Gatwick Airport, London, it was announced in April 2013, potentially opening the door for further link ups between the two countries. ■ In order to ease congestion at Ho Chi Minh City's Tan Son Nhat International Airport, Vietnam, officials at a meeting in Hanoi in July 2013 called for a new airport to be built in the country. Thanh Nien News reported the chairman of the board, Airports Corporation of Vietnam, Nguyen Nguyen Hung as stating: 'We should have started construction by now, in order to have the first phase completed by 2020.' ■ There is further room for co-operation between Vietnam and the US in the coming years, it was declared at the US-Viet Nam Aviation Co-operation Working Group held in Ho Chi Minh City in September 2013. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 41 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 SWOT Analysis - Continued ■ Vietnam Airlines began to take delivery of some 900 Nordisk light weight air cargo containers in January 2014. With the containers weighing less than conventional boxes due to being fashioned from AKE aluminium as opposed to normal aluminium, the costs associated with handling them will reduce due to lower fuel consumption and reduced carbon emissions. ■ In June 2014, Vietnam Airlines stated: 'SkyTeam, the global airline alliance, projects an increase of 18 % in membership cooperation for the year 2014. The increase is the result of more codeshares and bilateral agreements amongst its member airlines, benefiting global customers by offering more destinations and travel options.' ■ BMI believes that the rapidly expanding air cargo sector in Vietnam will be assisted by private investment as foreign companies, such as Samsung, seek secure supply chains to transport their goods. Threats ■ While the sector has recovered well, the outlook for global air freight remains volatile, especially with oil prices at their current high levels. Company Overview Vietnam Airlines Cargo's parent Vietnam Airlines began operations in 1956 serving the domestic market. In 1993, it was established as Vietnam's national carrier. The cargo carrier's operations are concentrated in Asia, catering for the domestic market. The airline operates its cargo business by transporting goods in the bellyholds of its passenger planes. Strategy Operating out of hubs in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam Airlines Cargo has developed a network of both domestic and international routes. Within Vietnam the carrier lands at 18 domestic airports. It is heavily focused on Asia, with three freight flights to neighbouring Thailand and routes servicing China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia. The air freight carrier is therefore able to cater for all five of Vietnam's top five import partners (China, Japan, Korea, Thailand and Singapore). Vietnam Airlines Cargo's expansion into China offers a launch pad for further services to other Chinese airports. It has also developed routes to Australia, with freight connections to Melbourne and Sydney. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 42 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Allied to Vietnam Airlines Cargo's cargo links to three destinations in Europe (Paris, Frankfurt and Moscow), parent company Vietnam Airlines began operating a direct air route to the UK in the last months of 2011. The service flies to Gatwick Airport, with cargo space available in the bellyholds of planes going to and from London. Etihad Airways announced at the start of the October 2013 that it had launched its first commercial passenger service between Abu Dhabi and Ho Chi Minh City. Vietnam Airlines is its codeshare partner and its VN code will be placed on the Abu Dhabi-Ho Chi Minh City sector. Taking advantage of the fast-growing market, Etihad Airways President and CEO James Hogan explained that: 'The United Arab Emirates is Vietnam's seventh largest trading partner and its largest in the Gulf region. In 2012, exports from Vietnam to the UAE exceeded USD2bn for the first time - up 82% on 2011 - and forecast to exceed USD4bn in 2013. The 13.1-tonne belly-hold capacity of our Airbus A330-200 aircrafts, which equates to more than 9,500 tonnes per year, gives us sufficient capacity to boost the volume and value of trade between the UAE and Vietnam and to other markets in the GCC, Europe and North America.' Latest Activity Vietnam Airlines' IPO Fails To Attract Foreign Companies Vietnam Airlines' initial public offering (IPO) has failed to attract foreigners after a sixyear wait, it was reported by Bloomberg in 2014. The carrier had been planning an IPO since about 2008; however, the IPO ended on November 13 without a single foreign company buying into the deal, highlighting the challenges faced by the government's privatisation programme. However, two local institutional investors have registered to buy up to 98.61% of the shares offered. In an auction at the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange, Vietnam Airlines had expected to generate nearly USD51mn with the sale of 49mn shares at VND22,300 (USD1.05) each, valuing the carrier at around USD1.5bn. Vietnam Airlines expects to list within a year of finalising the equitisation process, which it hopes to complete by endMarch. According to Chairman Pham Viet Thanh, no decision has yet been made over which of the country's two stock exchanges will carry the carrier's shares. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 43 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Political Outlook Domestic Politics Table: Vietnam Political Overview System of Government Single-Party Socialist Republic Head of State President Truong Tan Sang Head of Government Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung (serving second and final five-year term) Last Election Parliamentary - May 2011 Presidential - July 2011 Composition Of Current Government Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) Key Figures The 16-person Communist Party Politburo, elected by the 175-person party central committee at the national party congress, acts as the de facto highest decision-making body and comprises the top leadership of the CPV. Its most important members are: Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, State President Truong Tan Sang, Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, and Minister of Public Security Tran Dai Quang. Other Key Posts National Assembly Chariman - Nguyen Sinh Hung, Minister of National Defence Phung Quang Thanh, Minister of Planning and Investment - Bui Quang Vinh, Vice President - Nguyen Thi Doan, Central Bank Governor - Nguyen Van Binh. Main Political Parties (number of seats Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV): Founded in Hong Kong in 1930, the CPV in parliament) has been in power in North Vietnam since independence in 1954 and in the South since the end of the American War in 1975. Divisions exist within the party between a younger, more reform-minded faction originating from Southern Vietnam and an older generation, originating from the North, more aligned to traditionally communist ideology. Next Election Presidential and Parliamentary - May 2016 Ongoing Disputes Ongoing dispute with China, Malaysia, the Philippines and Taiwan over Spratly Islands in the South China Sea Key Relations/ Treaties ASEAN and WTO Member BMI Short-Term Political Risk Index 76.9 BMI Structural Political Risk Index 57.7 Source: BMI, National Sources © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 44 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Long-Term Political Outlook BMI View: Vietnam's biggest political question over the coming decade is whether one-party rule under the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) will face growing calls for democratisation, as was the case in other major South East Asian countries. While our core scenario envisages the CPV transforming itself into a technocratic administration, it faces major economic challenges which if mismanaged could lead to widespread unrest. On the foreign policy front, we expect an increasingly powerful China to drive Vietnam further into the camp of Asian nations with close relations with the US. Although Vietnam is a politically stable country, we view the ruling Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV)'s monopoly on political power as unsustainable over the long term. One of the CPV's biggest challenges will be managing Vietnam's transformation into a more pluralistic society over the coming decade and beyond. Indeed, the CPV's strict control of the media and political opinion is already cracking, with a growing number of internet bloggers becoming increasingly critical of government policy. Challenges And Threats To Stability Inflation And Devaluation As Drivers Of Discontent: As in neighbouring China, economic growth has brought sizeable material gains for the majority of the population. However, the Vietnamese government's loose fiscal and monetary policies have led to high levels of inflation and repeated devaluations of the dong in recent years, which have eroded the real value of wages and savings. Although inflation was brought down from a double-digit high of 23.0% in August 2011 to a more benign rate of 6.0% by end-2013, a failure by the Vietnamese government to contain inflation at a reasonable level and uphold the real value of the dong, while not currently our core view, could undermine consumer and investor confidence in the regime. Divisions Within The Communist Party: High inflation and devaluation have opened schisms within the CPV leadership between proponents of continued economic reform and a more conservative wing which believes that a deceleration or even reversal of reform policies would benefit macroeconomic stability. Ethnic And Regional Tensions: Vietnam is relatively homogeneous, with ethnic Viet comprising almost 90% of the population. Ethnic minorities in the Central Highlands have previously objected to government policies promoting migration of ethnic Viet into the highland region. While protests have died down, they could emerge in future. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 45 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 There are also continued cultural differences between the population of the Red River Delta around the capital Hanoi in the north and the population of the Mekong Delta in the south, where Ho Chi Minh City (formerly Saigon, the ex-capital of South Vietnam) remains the commercial capital. While the general perception is that northerners are more supportive of socialist rule and the southerners more inclined to support continued economic reform, a strong concept of national unity nevertheless exists in both parts of the country. Demands For Increased Religious Rights: One of the most concerted challenges against the CPV in recent years has come from Catholics wishing for a stronger recognition of their right to worship in what is still a nominally atheist country. Hanoi has ceded to pressure from the US to allow a higher degree of religious freedom, but is wary of the Catholic Church becoming a rallying point of political opposition, as was the case in Communist Poland and the Philippines during the Marcos dictatorship. The Vietnamese government has thus slapped heavy sentences on Catholic activists who have extended their fight to encompass increased political freedom. Relations With China: Relations with China have become increasingly strained in recent years as Beijing has expanded its economic, political and military influence southwards. The main point of contention is the conflicting territorial claims for the Paracel and Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. Vietnam's relations with China have also been strained by the large bilateral trade deficit it runs with its northern neighbour, which amounted to more than 20% of GDP in 2013 according to data from the IMF, and criticism of a Chinese-financed bauxite mining project in the central highlands. That said, the regimes in Beijing and Hanoi share the same ideological base and political system, and contacts between their respective politburos have decreased tension between them. Nonetheless, we believe Vietnam will seek increasingly close relations with the US - and potentially India and Japan - in the defence sphere, as a hedge against China's rising power in the region. Vietnam's long-term political risk score of 57.7/100 is weighed down by a score of 29.0 in the 'characteristics of polity' subcomponent. This is due to the limited independence of the judiciary, the ban on political parties other than the CPV and severe limitations on the media and civil society. While these factors may presage stability in the short term, the experience of other South East Asian nations shows that rising wealth and development later lead to calls for political liberalisation. We have thus drawn up three scenarios for Vietnam's political future: © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 46 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Public Unrest A Major Risk Vietnam - Long-Term Political Risk Index (Score Out Of 100) Source: BMI Scenarios For Political Change Core Scenario - CPV Turns Into A Technocratic Regime: Our core scenario is for the CPV to shift increasingly towards a technocratic form of government aimed at maintaining high economic growth levels and an acceptable distribution of wealth across the population. Ambitious young Vietnamese are already joining the CPV as a career path and as a means to serve their country rather than because of ideological convictions. We thus foresee a continuation of economic reforms in spite of the criticism emanating from older and more traditionally minded party members. However, intermittent periods of harsh repression against pro-democracy activists and other government critics are a strong indication that political liberalisation is not in the offing. Best-Case Scenario - Gradual Political Liberalisation: Our best-case scenario is the above scenario combined with a gradual move towards political liberalisation involving an expanded role for the National Assembly, greater scope for differing opinion within the CPV, increased political competition at elections, and greater media freedom. This scenario would see Vietnam moving from a one-party system towards a dominant-party system of the kind seen in neighbouring Cambodia, Malaysia and Singapore, where elections are held, but where only the ruling party has a realistic chance of winning them. Looking even further beyond the horizon, the experiences of South Korea, Taiwan and Japan have shown that even © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 47 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 dominant-party systems eventually give way to opposition rule. However, in Vietnam's case this may be more than a decade away. Worst-Case Scenario - Mass Unrest And Violent Suppression: Our worst-case scenario involves severe policy missteps that lead to a period of prolonged economic upheaval with high unemployment and rapid inflation eroding wealth. This would significantly strengthen the case for regime change, as advocated by the pro-democracy movement. Faced with widespread street protests and an all-out challenge to one-party rule, we believe at least part of the CPV leadership would support a crackdown on demonstrators by security forces in order to stay in power. A violent suppression of street protests as seen in Beijing in 1989 and in Myanmar in 2007 could easily result in a number of deaths and the imposition of sanctions by the international community. If so, Vietnam would likely face not only diplomatic isolation but also economic weakness as exports and foreign direct investment tumble. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 48 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Oil Price Outlook Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018) 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 105.90 96.30 52.00 57.00 59.00 62.00 98.00 93.06 52.00 56.00 58.00 60.00 Brent, USD/bbl 108.70 99.50 55.00 60.00 62.00 65.00 Urals, USD/bbl 107.90 98.09 53.00 58.00 60.00 63.00 Dubai, USD/bbl 105.40 96.50 51.00 56.00 58.00 61.00 Unleaded gasoline, Rotterdam, USD/bbl 115.19 110.71 97.65 95.40 93.66 93.59 Unleaded gasoline, New York, USD/bbl 118.70 114.83 102.14 101.61 100.18 98.44 Unleaded gasoline, Singapore, USD/bbl 115.89 112.46 98.14 96.82 96.20 96.81 Unleaded gasoline, global average, USD/bbl 116.59 112.67 99.31 97.94 96.68 96.28 Gasoil/diesel, Rotterdam, USD/bbl 124.81 118.38 104.89 102.79 101.05 100.77 Gasoil/diesel, Singapore, USD/bbl 123.15 118.07 103.53 100.39 99.39 100.23 Gasoil/diesel, global average, USD/bbl 124.84 118.92 105.35 103.30 101.59 101.10 Naphtha, Rotterdam, USD/bbl 100.27 98.30 98.85 98.79 97.02 95.10 Naphtha, Singapore, USD/bbl 100.27 98.62 84.42 81.62 80.62 81.62 Naphtha, global average, USD/bbl 100.27 98.46 91.64 90.21 88.82 88.36 Jet/kerosene, Rotterdam, USD/bbl 127.30 120.26 106.70 106.00 103.00 98.50 Jet/kerosene, New York, USD/bbl 125.10 119.46 107.40 106.50 104.50 98.50 Jet/kerosene, Singapore, USD/bbl 122.65 116.57 101.80 102.00 100.46 97.00 Jet/kerosene, global average, USD/bbl 125.02 118.76 105.30 104.83 102.65 98.00 Bunker fuel 180, Rotterdam, USD/bbl 95.07 83.64 75.80 71.00 68.50 68.00 Bunker fuel 180, New York, USD/bbl 97.52 96.85 76.90 75.50 74.50 73.00 Bunker fuel 180, Singapore, USD/bbl 93.96 86.96 72.30 73.00 73.00 71.00 Bunker fuel 180, global average, USD/bbl 95.52 89.15 75.00 73.17 72.00 70.67 Bunker fuel 380, Rotterdam, USD/bbl 91.24 79.84 69.80 68.00 66.00 65.00 Bunker fuel 380, New York, USD/bbl 93.13 83.55 72.90 73.00 71.50 67.00 Bunker fuel 380, Singapore, USD/bbl 95.84 83.27 71.30 72.00 72.10 70.20 Bunker fuel 380, Singapore, USD/bbl 95.84 83.27 71.30 72.00 72.10 70.20 Bunker fuel 380, global average, USD/bbl 93.40 82.22 71.33 71.00 69.87 67.40 Bunker fuel, Rotterdam, USD/bbl 93.16 88.04 86.53 83.50 81.33 79.50 Bunker fuel, New York, USD/bbl 95.33 94.02 91.00 87.00 83.50 80.85 Bunker fuel, Singapore, USD/bbl 94.90 90.23 88.18 85.28 83.15 82.09 OPEC basket, USD/bbl WTI, USD/bbl © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 49 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018) - Continued Bunker fuel, global average, USD/bbl Henry Hub, USD/mn BTU 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 94.46 90.76 88.57 85.26 82.66 80.81 3.74 4.50 3.70 4.00 4.20 4.40 Source: Bloomberg, BMI Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024) 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f OPEC basket, USD/bbl 63.00 67.00 69.00 69.00 69.00 WTI, USD/bbl 61.00 65.00 68.00 68.00 68.00 Brent, USD/bbl 66.00 70.00 72.00 72.00 72.00 Urals, USD/bbl 64.00 68.00 70.00 70.00 70.00 Dubai, USD/bbl 62.00 66.00 68.00 68.00 68.00 Unleaded gasoline, Rotterdam, USD/bbl 93.59 93.59 93.59 93.59 93.59 Unleaded gasoline, New York, USD/bbl 98.44 98.44 98.44 98.44 98.44 Unleaded gasoline, Singapore, USD/bbl 96.81 96.81 96.81 96.81 96.81 Unleaded gasoline, global average, USD/bbl 96.28 96.28 96.28 96.28 96.28 Gasoil/diesel, Rotterdam, USD/bbl 100.77 100.77 100.77 100.77 100.77 Gasoil/diesel, Singapore, USD/bbl 100.23 100.23 100.23 100.23 100.23 Gasoil/diesel, global average, USD/bbl 101.10 101.10 101.10 101.10 101.10 Naphtha, Rotterdam, USD/bbl 95.10 95.10 95.10 95.10 96.10 Naphtha, Singapore, USD/bbl 81.62 81.62 81.62 81.62 81.62 Naphtha, global average, USD/bbl 88.36 88.36 88.36 88.36 88.86 Jet/kerosene, Rotterdam, USD/bbl 98.50 98.50 98.50 98.50 98.50 Jet/kerosene, New York, USD/bbl 98.50 98.50 98.50 98.50 98.50 Jet/kerosene, Singapore, USD/bbl 97.00 97.00 97.00 97.00 97.00 Jet/kerosene, global average, USD/bbl 98.00 98.00 98.00 98.00 98.00 Bunker fuel 180, Rotterdam, USD/bbl 68.00 68.00 68.00 68.00 68.00 Bunker fuel 180, New York, USD/bbl 73.00 73.00 73.00 73.00 73.00 Bunker fuel 180, Singapore, USD/bbl 71.00 71.00 71.00 71.00 71.00 Bunker fuel 180, global average, USD/bbl 70.67 70.67 70.67 70.67 70.67 Bunker fuel 380, Rotterdam, USD/bbl 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 Bunker fuel 380, New York, USD/bbl 67.00 67.00 67.00 67.00 67.00 Bunker fuel 380, Singapore, USD/bbl 70.20 70.20 70.20 70.20 70.20 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 50 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024) - Continued 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f Bunker fuel 380, Singapore, USD/bbl 70.20 70.20 70.20 70.20 70.20 Bunker fuel 380, global average, USD/bbl 67.40 67.40 67.40 67.40 67.40 Bunker fuel, Rotterdam, USD/bbl 81.43 81.43 81.43 81.43 82.43 Bunker fuel, New York, USD/bbl 70.00 70.00 70.00 70.00 70.00 Bunker fuel, Singapore, USD/bbl 89.18 89.18 89.18 89.18 90.18 Bunker fuel, global average, USD/bbl 80.20 80.20 80.20 80.20 80.87 4.50 4.40 4.40 4.40 4.40 Henry Hub, USD/mn BTU Source: Bloomberg, BMI © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 51 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Macroeconomic Forecasts Expecting Sustained Growth Momentum In 2015 BMI View: We expect solid growth momentum in the Vietnamese economy to be carried over to 2015, on the back of continued foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, strong performance in the manufacturing and export sectors, and ongoing efforts by the government to address the high level of bad debts in the banking sector. We maintain our forecast for real GDP to grow at 5.7% in 2014, ahead of an acceleration to 6.4% in 2015. In line with our positive outlook for the Vietnamese economy, Vietnam's real GDP growth accelerated to 6.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q314 from the revised 5.4% print in the previous quarter. Notably, this marked the fastest pace of expansion since Q411, bringing real GDP growth to 5.6% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2014, exceeding the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 5.4% for the same period. Fastest Economic Expansion Since Q411 Vietnam - Real GDP, % chg y-o-y Source: BMI, GSO © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 52 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 The strong headline figure largely owes to a robust performance in the manufacturing and export sectors. Indeed, the manufacturing sector grew by 8.6% y-o-y in September, the fastest pace since February, while exports rose by 14.1% y-o-y for the first nine months of 2014 versus the same period in 2013. Strong growth in these sectors has more than offset sluggish domestic demand in the country, owing to slower lending by banks. The slowdown in credit growth has largely been the result of the high level of bad debts in Vietnam's banking sector, which has reduced the willingness of banks to lend. Picking Up Speed Vietnam - Industrial Production, % chg y-o-y Source: Bloomberg, BMI While the large amount of non-performing loans continues to pose a risk to the Vietnamese economy, we nevertheless maintain a constructive growth outlook for the country, and are forecasting real GDP growth of 5.7% in 2014, followed by a stronger expansion to 6.4% in 2015. Efforts by the government to tackle structural issues in the banking sector, strong foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to the country, and a continued expansion in the manufacturing and export sectors should sustain solid growth momentum going into 2015. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 53 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Taking Positive Steps To Reduce Banks' Non-Performing Loans The Vietnamese government has already taken steps to address the high level of sour loans in the banking sector, which constituted 4.2% of total loans as of end-June according to the State Bank of Vietnam. While we expect progress on this front to be gradual, strengthening of the banking sector is a step in the right direction by the government to secure the country's long-term growth prospects. In July 2013, the government established the Vietnam Asset Management Company (VAMC) to take bad debts off banks' books, allowing time for banks to undergo restructuring and strengthening of their credit assessment mechanisms. Meanwhile, the government has continued to reform its state-owned enterprises (SOEs), which accounted for more than half of the bad debts in the banking sector. While SOE reform has progressed at a very slow pace over recent years, it should gain some momentum over the coming quarters, as the government plans to privatise 432 state companies by end-2015. Manufacturing Sector To Sustain Strong Growth The Vietnamese economy will also ride on a stronger manufacturing performance over the coming quarters. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), a leading health indicator of the manufacturing sector, points to higher production activity. The index came in at 50.3 in August, marking the 12th straight month of expansion in the manufacturing sector. Additionally, given that Vietnam remains a low-cost manufacturing base for foreign firms, the country has continued to attract fervent foreign investment interest. The manufacturing sector received 68.4% of total registered capital, amounting to USD7.0bn in the first eight months of 2014. Exports To Ride On A Recovering US Economy Continued strong export growth will also be another driver of strong economic growth. Given the country's export orientation to the US, which received 17.3% of total Vietnamese outbound shipments in 2013, a recovering US economy will lend strength to Vietnam's exports. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 54 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Robust Export Performance Vietnam - Exports, % chg y-o-y (3mma) Source: BMI, GSO Risk To Outlook The largest risk to our constructive outlook for the Vietnamese economy comes from the potential for an escalation of the country's ongoing maritime dispute with China in the South China Sea, which would further strain political relations between both countries. This could spur an economic backlash by China, posing significant downside risks to our real GDP growth forecast. Indeed, China contributed a significant 21.3% of foreign investment to Vietnam in 2013, while accounting for 11.6% of Vietnamese exports. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 55 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Table: Economic Activity (Vietnam 2009-2018) 2009 Nominal GDP, USDbn 2011 2012 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 101.6 112.9 134.6 155.5 Real GDP growth, % y-o-y GDP per capita, USD 2010 5.4 6.4 6.2 5.2 1,152 1,267 1,496 1,712 Population, mn 170.4 185.5 210.2 240.6 275.9 311.0 5.4 5.7 6.4 6.6 6.4 6.4 1,859 2,004 2,251 2,554 2,905 3,250 88.2 89.0 89.9 90.8 91.7 92.5 93.4 94.2 95.0 95.7 Industrial production, % y-o-y, ave 6.7 14.1 10.9 7.0 5.9 7.7 8.4 8.6 8.6 8.5 Unemployment, % of labour force, eop 4.6 4.3 3.6 3.2 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 f = BMI forecast. Source: National Sources/BMI © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 56 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Demographic Forecast Demographic analysis is a key pillar of BMI's macroeconomic and industry forecasting model. Not only is the total population of a country a key variable in consumer demand, but an understanding of the demographic profile is essential to understanding issues ranging from future population trends to productivity growth and government spending requirements. The accompanying charts detail the population pyramid for 2015, the change in the structure of the population between 2015 and 2050 and the total population between 1990 and 2050. The tables show indicators from all of these charts, in addition to key metrics such as population ratios, the urban/rural split and life expectancy. Population (1990-2050) 150 100 50 2050f 2045f 2040f 2035f 2030f 2025f 2020f 2015f 2010 2005 2000 1990 0 Vietnam - Population, mn f = BMI forecast. Source: World Bank, UN, BMI © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 57 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Vietnam Population Pyramid 2015 (LHS) & 2015 Versus 2050 (RHS) Source: World Bank, UN, BMI Table: Population Headline Indicators (Vietnam 1990-2025) 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015f 2020f 2025f 68,909 80,887 84,947 89,047 93,386 97,057 99,811 na 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.5 Population, total, male, '000 33,892 39,827 41,830 43,970 46,158 47,980 49,302 Population, total, female, '000 35,017 41,060 43,117 45,077 47,228 49,076 50,508 Population ratio, male/female 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 Population, total, '000 Population, % y-o-y na = not available; f = BMI forecast. Source: World Bank, UN, BMI Table: Key Population Ratios (Vietnam 1990-2025) Active population, total, '000 Active population, % of total population Dependent population, total, '000 Dependent ratio, % of total working age © Business Monitor International Ltd 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015f 2020f 2025f 39,197 50,153 56,330 62,305 66,093 68,401 70,001 56.9 62.0 66.3 70.0 70.8 70.5 70.1 29,712 30,733 28,617 26,741 27,292 28,655 29,810 75.8 61.3 50.8 42.9 41.3 41.9 42.6 Page 58 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Key Population Ratios (Vietnam 1990-2025) - Continued Youth population, total, '000 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015f 2020f 2025f 25,778 25,543 23,038 20,918 20,950 20,690 19,395 65.8 50.9 40.9 33.6 31.7 30.2 27.7 3,934 5,190 5,578 5,823 6,342 7,964 10,414 10.0 10.3 9.9 9.3 9.6 11.6 14.9 Youth population, % of total working age Pensionable population, '000 Pensionable population, % of total working age f = BMI forecast. Source: World Bank, UN, BMI Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Vietnam 1990-2025) 1990 Urban population, '000 2020f 2025f 13,957.7 19,715.6 23,174.6 27,064.2 31,383.5 35,771.3 40,027.3 Urban population, % of total Rural population, '000 2000 20.3 24.4 2005 27.3 2010 30.4 2015f 33.6 36.9 40.1 54,952.2 61,172.3 61,773.2 61,983.2 62,003.1 61,285.7 59,783.9 Rural population, % of total 79.7 75.6 72.7 69.6 66.4 63.1 59.9 Life expectancy at birth, male, years 66.1 69.0 69.9 70.7 71.7 72.7 73.7 Life expectancy at birth, female, years 75.1 78.5 79.6 80.2 80.7 81.2 81.7 Life expectancy at birth, average, years 70.6 73.8 74.8 75.5 76.2 77.0 77.8 f = BMI forecast. Source: World Bank, UN, BMI Table: Population By Age Group (Vietnam 1990-2025) 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015f 2020f 2025f Population, 0-4 yrs, total, '000 9,314 7,127 6,897 7,228 7,012 6,574 5,922 Population, 5-9 yrs, total, '000 8,606 9,253 7,023 6,790 7,180 6,968 6,535 Population, 10-14 yrs, total, '000 7,856 9,162 9,117 6,898 6,757 7,147 6,936 Population, 15-19 yrs, total, '000 7,359 8,492 9,050 9,011 6,865 6,725 7,116 Population, 20-24 yrs, total, '000 6,644 7,672 8,332 8,873 8,936 6,802 6,664 Population, 25-29 yrs, total, '000 6,005 7,065 7,470 8,111 8,772 8,837 6,717 Population, 30-34 yrs, total, '000 5,138 6,351 6,909 7,285 8,021 8,680 8,747 Population, 35-39 yrs, total, '000 3,888 5,803 6,241 6,763 7,207 7,939 8,596 Population, 40-44 yrs, total, '000 2,462 4,994 5,719 6,147 6,684 7,127 7,856 Population, 45-49 yrs, total, '000 2,016 3,753 4,935 5,647 6,054 6,588 7,031 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 59 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Population By Age Group (Vietnam 1990-2025) - Continued 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015f 2020f 2025f Population, 50-54 yrs, total, '000 1,968 2,345 3,699 4,855 5,521 5,926 6,457 Population, 55-59 yrs, total, '000 2,045 1,885 2,237 3,541 4,677 5,330 5,733 Population, 60-64 yrs, total, '000 1,668 1,790 1,734 2,068 3,352 4,443 5,079 Population, 65-69 yrs, total, '000 1,411 1,770 1,609 1,562 1,906 3,104 4,134 Population, 70-74 yrs, total, '000 1,027 1,322 1,530 1,399 1,379 1,695 2,776 Population, 75-79 yrs, total, '000 752 984 1,080 1,263 1,166 1,159 1,437 Population, 80-84 yrs, total, '000 429 596 731 814 964 900 903 Population, 85-89 yrs, total, '000 223 336 385 482 545 653 617 Population, 90-94 yrs, total, '000 71 132 177 209 267 306 372 Population, 95-99 yrs, total, '000 15 40 52 74 89 115 133 Population, 100+ yrs, total, '000 1 6 11 16 23 30 38 f = BMI forecast. Source: World Bank, UN, BMI Table: Population By Age Group % (Vietnam 1990-2025) 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015f 2020f 2025f Population, 0-4 yrs, % total 13.52 8.81 8.12 8.12 7.51 6.77 5.93 Population, 5-9 yrs, % total 12.49 11.44 8.27 7.63 7.69 7.18 6.55 Population, 10-14 yrs, % total 11.40 11.33 10.73 7.75 7.24 7.36 6.95 Population, 15-19 yrs, % total 10.68 10.50 10.65 10.12 7.35 6.93 7.13 Population, 20-24 yrs, % total 9.64 9.49 9.81 9.97 9.57 7.01 6.68 Population, 25-29 yrs, % total 8.72 8.73 8.79 9.11 9.39 9.11 6.73 Population, 30-34 yrs, % total 7.46 7.85 8.13 8.18 8.59 8.94 8.76 Population, 35-39 yrs, % total 5.64 7.17 7.35 7.60 7.72 8.18 8.61 Population, 40-44 yrs, % total 3.57 6.17 6.73 6.90 7.16 7.34 7.87 Population, 45-49 yrs, % total 2.93 4.64 5.81 6.34 6.48 6.79 7.04 Population, 50-54 yrs, % total 2.86 2.90 4.36 5.45 5.91 6.11 6.47 Population, 55-59 yrs, % total 2.97 2.33 2.63 3.98 5.01 5.49 5.74 Population, 60-64 yrs, % total 2.42 2.21 2.04 2.32 3.59 4.58 5.09 Population, 65-69 yrs, % total 2.05 2.19 1.90 1.75 2.04 3.20 4.14 Population, 70-74 yrs, % total 1.49 1.63 1.80 1.57 1.48 1.75 2.78 Population, 75-79 yrs, % total 1.09 1.22 1.27 1.42 1.25 1.20 1.44 Population, 80-84 yrs, % total 0.62 0.74 0.86 0.92 1.03 0.93 0.91 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 60 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Population By Age Group % (Vietnam 1990-2025) - Continued 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015f 2020f 2025f Population, 85-89 yrs, % total 0.32 0.42 0.45 0.54 0.58 0.67 0.62 Population, 90-94 yrs, % total 0.10 0.16 0.21 0.24 0.29 0.32 0.37 Population, 95-99 yrs, % total 0.02 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.13 Population, 100+ yrs, % total 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 f = BMI forecast. Source: World Bank, UN, BMI © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 61 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Methodology Industry Forecast Methodology BMI's industry forecasts are generated using the best-practice techniques of time-series modelling and causal/econometric modelling. The precise form of model we use varies from industry to industry, in each case being determined, as per standard practice, by the prevailing features of the industry data being examined. Common to our analysis of every industry is the use of vector autoregressions. Vector autoregressions allow us to forecast a variable using more than the variable's own history as explanatory information. For example, when forecasting oil prices, we can include information about oil consumption, supply and capacity. When forecasting for some of our industry sub-component variables, however, using a variable's own history is often the most desirable method of analysis. Such single-variable analysis is called univariate modelling. We use the most common and versatile form of univariate models: the autoregressive moving average model (ARMA). In some cases, ARMA techniques are inappropriate because there is insufficient historic data or data quality is poor. In such cases, we use either traditional decomposition methods or smoothing methods as a basis for analysis and forecasting. BMI mainly uses OLS estimators and in order to avoid relying on subjective views and encourage the use of objective views, BMI uses a 'general-to-specific' method. BMI mainly uses a linear model, but simple nonlinear models, such as the log-linear model, are used when necessary. During periods of 'industry shock', for example poor weather conditions impeding agricultural output, dummy variables are used to determine the level of impact. Effective forecasting depends on appropriately selected regression models. BMI selects the best model according to various different criteria and tests, including but not exclusive to: ■ R2 tests explanatory power; adjusted R2 takes degree of freedom into account ■ Testing the directional movement and magnitude of coefficients ■ Hypothesis testing to ensure coefficients are significant (normally t-test and/or P-value) ■ All results are assessed to alleviate issues related to autocorrelation and multicollinearity © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 62 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 BMI uses the selected best model to perform forecasting. It must be remembered that human intervention plays a necessary and desirable role in all of BMI's industry forecasting. Experience, expertise and knowledge of industry data and trends ensure that analysts spot structural breaks, anomalous data, turning points and seasonal features where a purely mechanical forecasting process would not. Sector-Specific Methodology There are a number of principal criteria that drive our forecasts for each transport variable: ■ GDP Growth As transport activity is heavily influenced by real GDP growth, this factor is examined to ascertain its relationship with overall trade volumes. Projected GDP growth is calculated using BMI's own macroeconomic and demographic forecasts. ■ Real Trade Volumes The sum of imports and exports plays a particularly important role in developing countries with a small domestic industrial sector. In particular, the focus is on goods, as services do not employ transport. The volumes are forecast based on the following criteria: ■ Trends manifested through historical data; ■ The impact of future step changes to the economy (such as future membership of the EU or some other regional body). • Port Traffic Port traffic levels act as a 'second opinion' on trade volumes. However, this check needs to be used with caution as trade values and volumes do not always move over time in the same way. ■ Market Share The market share of each mode (road, rail, inland waterway, coastal shipping) for future years is based upon: ■ Trends in historical modal split data; ■ Evidence of government policy favouring one or more modes over others; ■ Government and or private sector investment plans in specific modes. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 63 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Sources Sources used in transport reports include local transport ministries, officially released company results and figures, established think tanks and institutes and donor agencies such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 64 [...].. .Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 SWOT Freight Transport Vietnam Freight Transport Industry SWOT Analysis Strengths ■ Vietnam' s strong domestic growth rate, coupled with its geography - it stretches for thousands of kilometres on a north-south axis - creates a need for long-distance freight haulage ■ A recovery of activity levels at the... from Mengzi to Hekou on the border with Vietnam' © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 24 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Table: Rail Freight (Vietnam 2012-2019) 2012 Rail freight tonnes ('000) 2018f 2019f 7,003.50 6,525.90 6,729.53 6,958.33 7,215.79 7,504.42 7,834.61 8,187.17 Rail freight tonnes, % y-o-y Rail freight tonnes-km (mn ton km) -3.87 2013 2015f 4,024.60 3,804.10 3,903.01 4,020.10... aviation sector to meet its freight needs, with © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 26 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 the sector offering savings in transport time, along with environment controlled options, which are vital for the transport of some medicines and vaccinations Table: Air Freight (Vietnam 2012-2019) 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f Air Freight Tonnes (000) 178.70... International Ltd Page 22 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Table: Inland Waterway Freight (Vietnam 2012-2019) 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f Inland Waterway Freight Tonnes (000) 168,493.00 180,812.70 192,886.88 205,112.82 218,092.49 231,697.58 245,984.72 261,174.82 Inland waterway freight tonnes, % y-o-y 5.20 7.31 6.68 6.34 6.33 6.24 6.17 6.18 Inland Waterway freight tonnes-km (mn... between 2015 and 2019 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 23 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 There are two key factors that we believe have held back Vietnam' s rail freight development and will continue to do so Table: Vietnam Transport Network Length (km) Road 206,633 Railway 2,632 Inland Waterway 47,130 Source: CIA World Factbook (accessed January 21 2014) The first is the quality of Vietnam' s... continue to forecast that the Vietnamese air freight sector will grow by 3.40% y-o-y, up from 2014's 3.00%, to reach 195,640 tonnes Over the forecast period, we predict Vietnam' s air freight levels to grow on average per annum by a healthy 4.46% to reach 235,310 tonnes © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 25 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Taking Off Air Freight, Tonnes 000, % Change... keep up with the pace of demand ■ Vietnam is vulnerable to any slowdown in Chinese investment and to political risk in the sensitive South China Sea, subject to competing sovereignty claims ■ A drop in international demand for exports would negatively affect Vietnam' s freight transport sector © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 11 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Political SWOT Analysis Strengths... affecting the US economy has a knock-on effect on Vietnam due to it being the Asian country's largest export partner Opportunities ■ The beginnings of local commercial vehicle production, which will help improve the stock of lorries used by road haulage companies © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 10 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Vietnam Freight Transport Industry SWOT Analysis - Continued... with data used elsewhere in this report © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 32 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Market Overview We expect Vietnam' s robust economic growth momentum in 2014 to be carried over into 2015, largely on the back of greater foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, continued healthy export growth as well as continual efforts by the Vietnamese government to improve... International Ltd Page 21 Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2015 Mekong Offers Trade Connections Map Of The Mekong River Source: BMI Vietnam' s inland waterways stretch for 47,130km and the country's dense network of waterways ranks its seventh in the world in terms of length The country's inland waterways include the Mekong River, which enables freight connections with Vietnam' s neighbours Although