A SPATIO-TEMPORAL AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL FOR MULTI-UNIT RESIDENTIAL MARKET ANALYSIS SUN HUA NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE 2003 A SPATIO-TEMPORAL AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL FOR MULTI-UNIT RESIDENTIAL MARKET ANALYSIS SUN HUA (B.Econ (Nankai University) 1999) A THESIS SUBMITTED FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE (ESTATE MANAGEMENT) DEPARTMENT OF REAL ESTATE NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE 2003 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my deep appreciation to the following people: My supervisors, Dr Tu Yong and Professor Yu Shi Ming, for their invaluable comments, patience and continuous encouragement to my master research Without their support, this study cannot be finished successfully My fiancee and colleague, Miss Li Ying, for her love and encouragement to me during the last two years Other faculty members at the Department of Real Estate, NUS who shared their experiences with me in various ways i TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS i TABLE OF CONTENTS ii LIST OF TABLES vii LIST OF FIGURES viii LIST OF MAPS ix SUMMARY x CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background 1.2 Objectives of the Study 1.3 Scope of the Study 1.4 Source of Data 1.5 Methodology of the Study 1.6 Hypotheses 1.7 Organization of the Study CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Conventional Housing Price Models 10 2.2.1 Hedonic Price Method 10 2.2.2 Repeat Sales Method 14 2.2.3 Hybrid Method 15 2.2.4 Comparison of Performance among Hedonic, Repeat Sales and Hybrid Models 16 ii 2.3 Spatial and Spatio-temporal Models in Housing Studies 17 2.3.1 Spatial Autocorrelation Studies 18 2.3.2 Spatial Autocorrelation Studies: Incorporating Temporal Effect 23 2.3.3 Spatial Heterogeneity Research 26 2.4 Heteroscedasticity Research in Housing Studies 27 2.5 Local Studies on Singapore Residential Market 29 2.6 Summary 32 CHAPTER 3: THE SINGAPORE CONDOMINIUM MARKET 3.1 Introduction 35 3.2 The Development and Aggregate Price Dynamics of Singapore Condominium Market 35 3.3 The Structure of Singapore Condominium Market 40 3.4 Research Data Description 43 3.5 Summary 49 CHAPTER 4: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 4.1 Introduction 51 4.2 Traditional Hedonic Price Model 51 4.3 Spatio-temporal Autoregressive Model (STAR) 53 4.4 Two Order Spatio-temporal Autoregressive Model (2STAR) 55 4.5 Model Selection Criteria 59 4.6 The Specification of Weight Matrices 60 4.7 Robust Heteroscedasticity Using Bayesian Estimation 64 4.7.1 Basic Idea of Bayesian Estimation Approach and Its Comparison with the Classic Estimation Approach 4.7.2 Bayesian Estimation Procedure with Heteroscedasticity Robustness iii 65 68 4.7.3 A Monte Carlo Test on the Power of Heteroscedasticity Robustness Using Bayesian Approach 72 4.8 Summary of Econometric Implementation Procedure 74 CHAPTER 5: EMPIRICAL RESULTS 5.1 Introduction 76 5.2 Empirical Results of Different Models 76 5.2.1 Traditional Hedonic Model 77 5.2.2 Spatio-temporal Autoregressive Model (STAR) 79 5.2.3 Two Order Spatio-temporal Autoregressive Model (2STAR) 84 5.3 Comparison of Model Performance 92 5.3.1 A Comparison of Model Fits 92 5.3.2 Autocorrelation Reduction 94 5.4 Model Comparison on Ex-sample Performance 95 5.5 Further Examination of Heteroscedasticity Robustness and Autocorrelation Reduction 96 5.6 Summary 99 CHAPTER 6: HOUSING PRICE DYNAMICS OF SINGAPORE CONDOMINIUM MARKET AT DISAGGREGATE LEVEL 6.1 Introduction 101 6.2 The Price Dynamics across Housing Submarkets 103 6.3 Evidence of Building and Neighborhood Effects 106 6.4 The Impact of Less Transaction Frequency on Building Specific Housing Price Index Construction 112 6.5 Summary 115 iv CHAPTER 7: CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS 7.1 Summary of Main Findings 116 7.2 Research Contributions 121 7.3 Limitations and Recommendations for Further Research 123 BIBLIOGRAPHY 125 APPENDIX A: FUNCTION FOR MONTE CARLO TEST OF BAYESIAN HETEROSCEDASTICITY ROBUST MODEL 131 APPENDIX B: MATLAB SUPPORTING FUNCTIONS FOR THIS STUDY 132 APPENDIX C: TABLE 6.1 TO 6.6 FOR CHAPTER 148 APPENDIX D: THE SELECTED PROJECTS FOR PRE-SALE AND AFTER-TOP COMPARISON (35,869 words) v 156 LIST OF TABLES Table 3.1 Variable Definitions 44 Table 3.2 Statistics of Key Variables 46 Table 3.3 Average Housing Prices and the Number of Transactions over Time 47 Table 3.4 Outcome of Descriptive Statistics 48 Table 4.1 Estimation Results of the Generated Data 72 Table 5.1 Traditional Hedonic Model Estimates 77 Table 5.2 STAR Model Estimates 80 Table 5.3 Two Order Spatio-temporal Autoregressive Model Estimates 85 Table 5.4 Model Performance Comparison 92 Table 5.5 In-sample Error Statistics 93 Table 5.6 Pairwise Autocorrelation of the Residuals 94 Table 5.7 Ex-sample Performance Statistics 95 Table 6.1 The Selected 18 Buildings 148 Table 6.2 Index Values of the Selected 18 Buildings 149 Table 6.3 The Selected Projects 151 Table 6.4a Index Values of West Bay CDO 152 Table 6.4b Index Values of Parc Oasis 153 Table 6.4c Index Values of Sims Ville 154 Table 6.5 The Selected Buildings with Less Than 15 Transactions 154 Table 6.6 Index Values of the Buildings with Less Than 15 Transactions 155 Table D.1 The Selected Projects 156 Table D.2a Index Values of Park East 158 Table D.2b Index Values of The Summit 159 Table D.2c Index Values of Elias Green 160 Table D.2d Index Values of Bishan Park 161 Table D.2e Index Values of Avila Garden 162 Table D.2f Index Values of BT Regency 163 Table D.2g Index Values of Orchid Park 164 Table D.2h Index Values of Azalea Park 165 vi LIST OF FIGURES Figure 3.1 Residential Property Price Indices 37 Figure 4.1 Posterior Mean of vi Estimates of the Generated Data 73 Figure 4.2 Flowchart of Modeling Process 75 Figure 5.1 Posterior Mean of vi Estimates: BSTAR Model 83 Figure 5.2 Posterior Mean of vi Estimates: 2BSTAR Model 88 Figure 5.3 Posterior Mean of vi Estimates: 2PBSTAR Model 89 Figure 5.4 Posterior Mean of vi Estimates Sorted by Two Buildings 97 Figure 5.5 Posterior Mean of vi Estimates Sorted by Ten Buildings 98 Figure 6.1 Price Indices of the 18 Selected Buildings 105 Figure 6.2a Price Indices of Buildings in West Bay CDO 108 Figure 6.2b Price Indices of Buildings in Parc Oasis 108 Figure 6.2c Price Indices of Buildings in Sims Ville 109 Figure 6.3 Price Indices of the Buildings with Less Than 15 Transactions 114 Figure D.1a Price Indices of Buildings in Park East 166 Figure D.1b Price Indices of Buildings in The Summit 166 Figure D.1c Price Indices of Buildings in Elias Green 167 Figure D.1d Price Indices of Buildings in Bishan Park 167 Figure D.1e Price Indices of Buildings in Avila Garden 168 Figure D.1f Price Indices of Buildings in BT Regency 168 Figure D.1g Price Indices of Buildings in Orchid Park 169 Figure D.1h Price Indices of Buildings in Azalea Park 169 vii LIST OF MAPS Map 3.1 Traditional Structure of Singapore Condominium Submarket 41 Map 3.2 New Structure of Singapore Condominium Submarket 42 Map 6.1 The Locations of the Selected 18 Buildings 104 Map 6.2 The Locations of the Selected Projects 107 Map 6.3 The Locations of the Selected Buildings 113 Map D.1 The Locations of the selected Projects 157 viii Appendix C Table 6.1 to 6.6 for Chapter 155 Table 6.6 Index Values of the Buildings with Less Than 15 Transactions Time Q1 1991 Q2 1991 Q3 1991 Q4 1991 Q1 1992 Q2 1992 Q3 1992 Q4 1992 Q1 1993 Q2 1993 Q3 1993 Q4 1993 Q1 1994 Q2 1994 Q3 1994 Q4 1994 Q1 1995 Q2 1995 Q3 1995 Q4 1995 Q1 1996 Q2 1996 Q3 1996 Q4 1996 Q1 1997 Q2 1997 Q3 1997 Q4 1997 Q1 1998 Q2 1998 Q3 1998 Q4 1998 Q1 1999 Q2 1999 Q3 1999 Q4 1999 Building 100 102.112 98.8074 97.017 96.8393 88.2892 87.3463 89.0571 101.6352 102.8572 124.9262 155.5178 155.5696 160.4539 170.5119 175.7592 188.6946 191.1938 192.5473 188.9632 199.6899 233.7394 227.9562 236.4011 229.4238 233.149 232.7347 228.1683 231.4614 224.0703 215.4601 215.4831 218.9368 211.3243 213.1278 210.5204 Building 100 101.6376 102.6685 102.3254 104.0297 103.5643 102.3502 102.7224 103.0787 99.8113 100.5935 98.7691 99.742 100.766 106.1805 104.1702 121.6547 139.9953 140.3796 138.7811 144.9521 147.3307 145.1999 149.6955 145.1296 146.4282 145.0553 141.9504 144.9454 140.803 135.4408 135.743 138.6707 149.249 150.1653 148.1937 Building 100 101.6331 98.9905 99.0089 87.2425 87.2468 104.2052 106.61 109.1981 111.4684 45.212 44.5617 44.4317 44.7964 48.0617 47.3719 47.5933 47.9277 48.166 47.9004 50.0996 71.6676 69.6699 71.8509 69.7642 70.704 70.6832 69.2339 70.3367 68.482 66.005 66.2502 67.7001 70.5427 70.8025 69.6381 Building 100 145.9526 146.5826 121.3303 124.4695 107.3478 106.9256 108.1833 115.4515 116.4417 122.8699 126.7827 129.1516 130.0994 137.9096 158.5586 159.8305 160.5556 195.9959 193.1653 200.5832 203.1848 197.5483 212.8555 206.6727 220.1756 216.5545 211.2631 215.3349 209.6105 201.9103 203.3758 206.8739 216.011 217.2743 213.1622 Building 100 102.9658 43.0364 43.3098 90.238 90.9298 77.0392 72.0699 50.6167 54.1001 72.4651 71.413 66.0622 66.3649 70.2686 68.9761 77.1179 77.7051 94.8908 93.2046 103.05 104.0797 103.7711 107.3109 104.7556 106.6598 107.0778 104.9867 106.5699 103.5899 99.8797 100.1227 102.3794 81.7986 69.6533 68.3447 Appendix D The Selected Projects for Pre-Sale and After-TOP Comparison 156 Appendix D THE SELECTED PROJECTS FOR PRE-SALE AND AFTERTOP COMPARISON Table D.1 presents the information of eight selected projects for comparison of dynamic paths during pre-sale and after-TOP period Table D.1 The Selected Projects Project Name Park East The Summit Elias Green Bishan Park CDO Avila Garden Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Starting Sale Date 1991-10-25 1991-11-7 1991-10-28 1991-10-24 1991-10-24 1991-6-20 1990-2-17 1990-4-6 1990-6-22 1990-5-26 1990-4-3 1991-10-28 1991-9-19 1992-6-23 1992-8-1 1992-7-31 1991-11-4 1992-4-13 1992-5-27 1992-5-12 1992-4-25 1992-4-29 1992-6-3 1992-10-22 1992-10-27 1992-10-20 1992-10-1 1992-10-7 TOP (Temporary Occupation Permit) Date 1994-12-31 1994-12-31 1994-12-31 1994-12-31 1994-12-31 1994-12-31 1994-12-31 1994-12-31 1994-12-31 1994-12-31 1994-12-31 1994-12-31 1994-12-31 1994-12-31 1994-12-31 1994-12-31 1994-12-31 1994-12-31 1994-12-31 1994-12-31 1994-12-31 1994-12-31 1994-12-31 1995-12-31 1995-12-31 1995-12-31 1995-12-31 1995-12-31 Number of Transactions 42 35 75 61 41 37 21 35 89 83 70 119 107 89 46 44 50 49 98 45 89 77 68 70 63 79 90 78 Appendix D The Selected Projects for Pre-Sale and After-TOP Comparison 157 BT Regency Orchid Park CDO Azalea Park CDO Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Building Building 1992-10-7 1993-6-15 1993-6-12 1993-6-7 1993-6-7 1993-6-11 1993-6-7 1992-9-2 1992-7-1 1992-7-1 1992-7-6 1992-8-6 1992-2-28 1992-7-11 1993-4-16 1993-1-31 1993-4-12 1993-4-7 1993-4-7 1993-4-12 1995-12-31 1995-12-31 1995-12-31 1995-12-31 1995-12-31 1995-12-31 1995-12-31 1996-1-15 1996-1-15 1996-1-15 1996-1-15 1996-1-15 1996-1-15 1996-1-15 1996-12-31 1996-12-31 1996-12-31 1996-12-31 1996-12-31 1996-12-31 Map D.1 shows the location distribution of buildings in these eight projects Map D.1 The Locations of the Selected Projects 45 57 30 50 35 35 29 57 80 112 53 111 159 64 37 84 42 76 39 77 Appendix D The Selected Projects for Pre-Sale and After-TOP Comparison 158 Table D.2a to table D.2h present the index values of different projects separately Table D.2a Index Values of Park East Time Q1 1991 Q2 1991 Q3 1991 Q4 1991 Q1 1992 Q2 1992 Q3 1992 Q4 1992 Q1 1993 Q2 1993 Q3 1993 Q4 1993 Q1 1994 Q2 1994 Q3 1994 Q4 1994 Q1 1995 Q2 1995 Q3 1995 Q4 1995 Q1 1996 Q2 1996 Q3 1996 Q4 1996 Q1 1997 Q2 1997 Q3 1997 Q4 1997 Q1 1998 Q2 1998 Q3 1998 Q4 1998 Q1 1999 Q2 1999 Q3 1999 Q4 1999 Building 100 113.5858 114.7891 94.6791 98.8824 96.6831 97.3408 97.0656 99.0489 100.4991 98.9978 98.2362 98.1227 99.3809 103.2754 102.3088 103.9576 104.4799 104.3489 102.9351 107.5628 107.231 104.0013 107.3534 104.1054 105.8097 97.4623 96.0683 98.226 114.321 109.4481 110.327 113.1847 133.5033 173.4332 189.4965 Building 100 113.5857 114.7909 97.8985 99.3275 98.6671 99.4706 100.0412 100.1925 101.9602 98.1145 97.7048 98.6057 100.2888 104.8802 103.1014 103.6985 103.9127 104.1938 102.8604 107.459 107.3931 103.5133 106.857 103.6355 105.4106 125.968 156.1791 192.0894 187.9278 165.2591 166.8167 171.8392 161.8561 169.6282 167.2057 Building 100 113.5844 114.7872 94.8923 97.7359 96.4205 95.6207 96.0256 94.5935 98.2505 97.7933 97.0999 97.1773 97.1532 102.5867 99.3597 102.2826 102.9529 103.1965 101.8102 106.6679 105.211 101.7364 105.0173 101.8515 105.191 105.3992 103.9161 106.2627 104.0318 99.5721 109.9232 143.9381 152.5193 172.0645 184.6087 Building 100 113.583 114.7835 94.1831 96.7305 89.3016 101.0462 97.7628 97.7838 93.311 91.2067 97.2812 97.6094 98.5998 102.7376 101.6838 101.1793 101.6913 98.86 97.5518 101.9023 102.707 101.2892 104.5395 101.3825 103.0329 159.9335 157.1477 160.2541 187.213 169.4129 148.4258 139.7498 148.134 166.4086 181.5824 Building 100 113.5838 114.783 95.6018 90.3186 91.9671 93.4611 94.5344 92.5383 94.5792 93.605 94.5816 94.8734 98.4867 101.3391 99.9018 100.4953 100.9785 103.8358 102.45 107.0359 107.8959 104.636 108.8194 105.5231 103.9256 103.5645 101.7402 103.7435 118.2684 113.3372 131.8552 157.5218 154.7591 156.9111 154.7028 Appendix D The Selected Projects for Pre-Sale and After-TOP Comparison 159 Table D.2b Index Values of The Summit Time Q1 1991 Q2 1991 Q3 1991 Q4 1991 Q1 1992 Q2 1992 Q3 1992 Q4 1992 Q1 1993 Q2 1993 Q3 1993 Q4 1993 Q1 1994 Q2 1994 Q3 1994 Q4 1994 Q1 1995 Q2 1995 Q3 1995 Q4 1995 Q1 1996 Q2 1996 Q3 1996 Q4 1996 Q1 1997 Q2 1997 Q3 1997 Q4 1997 Q1 1998 Q2 1998 Q3 1998 Q4 1998 Q1 1999 Q2 1999 Q3 1999 Q4 1999 Building 100 102.435 93.0982 91.9015 93.4779 93.8101 95.2103 99.5237 100.4484 101.1721 95.7719 93.3176 105.5736 145.4224 163.8849 169.7684 180.9419 183.4225 192.9664 190.2299 197.6869 204.5809 198.838 207.3215 204.0292 217.7779 216.0178 210.7932 206.1152 179.0648 172.3346 172.1763 175.2029 183.9381 171.0996 167.8863 Building 100 102.4645 103.0448 108.3302 110.451 106.8187 106.3301 108.0379 108.6795 109.4373 108.4712 109.2078 123.3837 126.5532 134.8398 132.6743 125.1515 126.5485 127.153 125.1484 130.74 133.3867 129.6206 174.0817 219.5491 220.2055 219.3058 214.2657 217.0126 210.3127 191.5327 191.414 194.7221 184.6026 185.8992 182.2495 Building 100 103.5596 109.4389 108.9456 110.0545 109.7104 109.3057 111.0392 107.4524 108.2776 107.4585 112.529 127.2631 148.4179 190.3649 198.7142 200.3018 202.17 204.1221 200.685 208.2752 231.4658 224.9541 234.505 230.397 192.4493 238.6381 233.2057 236.1612 229.0735 220.297 219.9912 223.6461 215.3227 217.0781 212.7462 Building 100 102.5587 85.6707 86.9946 87.691 93.5624 106.9921 98.517 98.8987 109.2358 106.376 110.9125 119.7915 143.8237 159.5563 123.019 122.4529 174.7201 174.2408 190.5797 198.2286 199.3978 200.3157 224.3196 211.6983 212.49 202.334 185.9072 157.5807 152.9143 147.1947 147.2421 132.0463 146.5938 165.5643 171.4668 Building 100 118.7819 119.3282 103.59 97.9144 106.0756 109.0396 111.8196 112.2262 113.5724 121.4051 127.0503 135.9649 187.5734 208.7718 206.8304 231.2346 235.404 237.594 193.6992 204.6392 267.2863 259.5084 278.6761 264.5571 266.8339 269.3179 252.6778 255.2787 248.0511 238.8372 219.0714 191.8234 188.6817 218.245 218.246 Building 100 109.937 112.291 110.7228 109.6254 107.4231 106.1934 108.5256 110.3484 111.3431 111.7012 112.1864 127.0802 173.1686 207.3417 206.9371 214.2526 217.0737 219.0171 210.9564 215.5252 219.7758 221.2686 229.8516 236.2599 239.6635 239.6315 236.2579 239.024 231.9265 205.2612 178.5375 159.9047 170.4461 195.393 196.5371 Appendix D The Selected Projects for Pre-Sale and After-TOP Comparison 160 Table D.2c Index Values of Elias Green Time Q1 1991 Q2 1991 Q3 1991 Q4 1991 Q1 1992 Q2 1992 Q3 1992 Q4 1992 Q1 1993 Q2 1993 Q3 1993 Q4 1993 Q1 1994 Q2 1994 Q3 1994 Q4 1994 Q1 1995 Q2 1995 Q3 1995 Q4 1995 Q1 1996 Q2 1996 Q3 1996 Q4 1996 Q1 1997 Q2 1997 Q3 1997 Q4 1997 Q1 1998 Q2 1998 Q3 1998 Q4 1998 Q1 1999 Q2 1999 Q3 1999 Q4 1999 Building 100 118.9033 119.6185 89.8673 92.4873 93.0676 97.0137 99.6407 95.272 96.5074 96.8671 94.8309 94.1357 93.627 99.1169 97.1035 98.0484 98.4826 97.3037 96.485 100.2667 103.0301 97.0129 100.9663 99.5397 177.4671 174.8088 167.4362 170.1967 166.1729 159.8886 119.4961 124.7471 139.2447 153.5015 158.5803 Building 100 118.8813 119.596 91.3188 92.4386 93.1818 96.7673 97.4939 97.2623 97.3576 96.1017 95.207 94.87 93.6527 98.1073 97.9863 100.1346 97.5515 99.1659 97.4092 101.6253 99.2575 96.6668 99.8114 120.9515 181.166 173.2517 171.1831 174.2226 154.2975 148.5256 126.1213 124.9925 134.2507 150.0424 152.5737 Building 100 118.8696 119.5842 94.7441 96.1471 94.1366 98.9122 100.4111 101.3492 99.235 99.7923 98.0726 98.1615 98.5156 103.6599 102.4178 101.3697 101.8174 101.7722 101.6317 106.693 105.2482 102.8022 106.3535 140.7176 145.1585 175.4934 176.0781 179.241 165.2505 159.0698 159.2502 144.8848 134.751 160.7467 164.0698 Building 100 118.8459 119.5612 94.7297 96.1386 94.1276 102.7658 103.598 103.358 106.5588 106.4693 103.9164 102.5769 101.5869 107.9313 106.344 106.7592 106.9217 106.528 105.7821 110.1154 111.0513 106.8465 110.8139 128.9133 133.1107 133.5507 153.6415 177.6211 172.9704 166.5034 166.7544 150.8668 138.202 144.8293 148.5349 Building 100 118.8562 119.5706 94.7335 96.1405 94.1296 102.0413 102.5234 103.0031 105.5676 104.9114 103.6623 102.1262 102.7626 108.9753 107.5384 107.6274 107.5065 105.6977 104.3522 108.6261 109.5544 105.8756 109.1967 107.4113 130.138 176.9262 174.5384 177.994 173.3326 166.8512 167.1031 153.2222 159.2878 154.4514 150.603 Building Building 100 118.8824 119.5962 94.7493 96.1504 94.1401 98.1597 98.9017 97.8736 100.2041 100.1732 100.1238 99.2272 95.8105 100.3191 99.1222 99.9561 100.3978 99.6834 100.1868 104.0193 103.5198 100.0577 103.0601 101.5345 104.7347 121.9189 172.0554 175.1641 170.5365 164.1573 164.3438 167.2283 174.0475 170.1508 166.8376 100 118.9093 119.623 89.8642 92.4847 95.6905 97.0663 97.8743 97.852 99.2621 98.5393 96.6878 95.5597 95.6787 100.9437 99.6041 101.5739 102.0235 100.5453 99.1451 103.0363 104.1611 100.5742 103.6219 101.7844 127.281 151.385 148.8867 151.4274 170.1401 153.6952 153.6907 145.8613 151.4708 164.3138 163.7526 Appendix D The Selected Projects for Pre-Sale and After-TOP Comparison 161 Table D.2d Index Values of Bishan Park Time Q1 1991 Q2 1991 Q3 1991 Q4 1991 Q1 1992 Q2 1992 Q3 1992 Q4 1992 Q1 1993 Q2 1993 Q3 1993 Q4 1993 Q1 1994 Q2 1994 Q3 1994 Q4 1994 Q1 1995 Q2 1995 Q3 1995 Q4 1995 Q1 1996 Q2 1996 Q3 1996 Q4 1996 Q1 1997 Q2 1997 Q3 1997 Q4 1997 Q1 1998 Q2 1998 Q3 1998 Q4 1998 Q1 1999 Q2 1999 Q3 1999 Q4 1999 Building 100 103.3094 111.7454 108.6342 110.0811 101.9134 110.3787 114.649 114.7931 114.1856 112.7627 100.6791 111.5431 100.5336 116.5491 92.4581 115.1954 116.1503 115.9738 113.7656 118.2014 119.3771 116.614 106.2677 114.8552 168.3105 197.3494 190.6233 194.5307 183.5002 168.6515 149.5829 138.8977 163.2286 169.324 167.5418 Building 100 103.3044 111.7466 108.6456 110.0812 101.8979 104.4128 106.6566 106.0134 105.8755 105.1667 102.8684 102.7972 101.9965 112.1122 110.3634 108.5159 107.854 107.6164 106.7729 110.8184 114.1732 108.9225 111.6127 108.6191 113.3821 137.1256 135.342 138.1241 134.1241 129.0628 129.5636 131.4326 174.6047 164.4647 173.3397 Building 100 103.3035 111.7455 108.6356 110.0689 100.9951 103.322 95.0823 95.1903 107.2303 92.7835 102.4778 104.2151 105.2071 112.163 95.4037 108.9698 109.5519 97.8306 96.2579 98.9783 111.2239 108.2477 111.6989 108.5535 112.8172 136.6467 164.6539 166.1468 161.4194 155.407 155.8837 125.4189 163.0225 174.4311 175.9403 Building 100 103.3083 111.7462 108.6204 110.059 102.4549 104.314 102.5133 108.5594 107.8622 105.645 104.9558 104.2527 106.0486 111.8999 106.8072 107.797 108.6737 108.4903 105.9498 109.3405 111.017 107.3352 110.3788 107.2708 171.1026 171.3559 206.9147 202.0025 196.2666 188.967 160.328 162.8181 157.8238 179.1784 176.2891 Building 100 103.3179 111.7497 108.6091 110.0605 102.4667 111.7541 113.6619 113.6979 114.6677 111.0983 108.7871 109.3754 112.1007 117.5427 114.6615 115.6825 116.5712 116.6252 114.2997 118.7746 120.0034 116.269 119.6012 116.2331 153.5688 153.8336 152.7005 182.9858 177.8051 171.1997 171.2614 173.9366 157.2883 171.3928 170.765 Appendix D The Selected Projects for Pre-Sale and After-TOP Comparison 162 Table D.2e Index Values of Avila Garden Time Q1 1991 Q2 1991 Q3 1991 Q4 1991 Q1 1992 Q2 1992 Q3 1992 Q4 1992 Q1 1993 Q2 1993 Q3 1993 Q4 1993 Q1 1994 Q2 1994 Q3 1994 Q4 1994 Q1 1995 Q2 1995 Q3 1995 Q4 1995 Q1 1996 Q2 1996 Q3 1996 Q4 1996 Q1 1997 Q2 1997 Q3 1997 Q4 1997 Q1 1998 Q2 1998 Q3 1998 Q4 1998 Q1 1999 Q2 1999 Q3 1999 Q4 1999 Building 100 118.8787 119.5708 94.7296 96.1923 94.1619 102.6061 116.4639 113.3752 112.2144 101.6669 104.4257 107.9347 107.4653 112.7873 107.4496 111.6648 106.5262 112.006 110.3944 116.6089 117.5056 111.1882 114.2617 117.3123 175.5535 177.5917 198.3319 203.6263 198.4989 155.7171 153.5616 146.4713 153.5722 182.2137 186.8417 Building 100 118.8788 119.5662 94.724 96.1839 94.1537 102.603 114.9013 111.9064 120.5896 113.0823 113.3377 116.9118 116.3132 107.6064 104.9297 115.6868 116.5426 115.879 114.3704 112.5811 114.3091 113.7885 117.1895 113.8125 120.4884 121.0659 118.4594 143.4354 139.833 134.1025 149.5034 151.5233 170.9294 179.2018 175.9058 Building 100 118.8793 119.5658 94.726 96.1854 94.1549 102.6023 111.2467 113.6337 111.6328 108.6565 105.5911 108.3453 107.6415 111.3449 109.0536 107.9618 108.7432 108.5764 110.0097 114.8533 115.8276 108.4087 107.6271 107.3046 204.2972 201.241 196.9318 195.2241 190.2614 182.2084 172.4633 177.0499 161.7776 168.3988 181.2717 Building 100 118.8793 119.5689 94.73 96.1913 94.1606 102.6042 110.1248 101.2291 107.5407 100.9519 105.1934 100.78 99.3731 104.6001 101.6152 98.1574 107.3891 107.6651 104.6816 105.189 108.2306 106.9787 110.0747 106.9681 211.7767 212.8193 208.2367 214.0172 202.7833 143.0365 146.6888 153.7391 168.4707 189.1792 188.2721 Building 100 118.8792 119.5733 94.7357 96.1999 94.169 102.6073 111.8053 101.8109 101.5171 104.8463 101.1199 101.6034 107.0981 108.3432 105.5468 103.3748 109.9386 110.4023 108.7956 109.4066 114.019 102.3342 84.6223 85.3215 115.1241 213.4185 209.0086 214.3893 208.9563 181.285 162.6357 152.0314 169.0467 182.5898 193.7154 Building 100 118.8788 119.5759 94.737 96.2031 94.1723 102.6094 116.8962 82.9109 83.5897 93.0671 82.584 82.4384 72.0079 88.7686 76.3215 85.3249 96.531 97.0426 87.0433 84.4274 81.4761 81.8825 80.7029 78.2915 113.8662 181.9876 165.2694 169.6013 157.9464 152.0147 155.406 140.9948 147.8031 149.4177 147.2145 Appendix D The Selected Projects for Pre-Sale and After-TOP Comparison 163 Table D.2f Index Values of BT Regency Time Q1 1991 Q2 1991 Q3 1991 Q4 1991 Q1 1992 Q2 1992 Q3 1992 Q4 1992 Q1 1993 Q2 1993 Q3 1993 Q4 1993 Q1 1994 Q2 1994 Q3 1994 Q4 1994 Q1 1995 Q2 1995 Q3 1995 Q4 1995 Q1 1996 Q2 1996 Q3 1996 Q4 1996 Q1 1997 Q2 1997 Q3 1997 Q4 1997 Q1 1998 Q2 1998 Q3 1998 Q4 1998 Q1 1999 Q2 1999 Q3 1999 Q4 1999 Building 100 101.664 102.3966 103.367 91.0292 92.2852 74.8326 77.21 71.2907 73.9806 96.7472 92.9918 94.997 94.8631 97.909 92.1941 94.3608 97.4143 99.5375 98.5633 100.6233 107.609 99.6877 102.7714 102.9074 104.2865 100.6852 97.0199 98.6398 95.9709 92.9179 93.6949 95.8375 100.6076 101.3409 105.4409 Building 100 101.6657 102.3949 103.3392 91.188 92.7841 74.9438 68.0651 71.5332 74.0403 88.848 89.9016 88.4525 88.3464 97.6452 95.4217 92.9547 94.2129 92.0948 91.9353 99.9566 100.7062 94.0341 96.9483 90.5956 91.3667 90.383 88.0203 89.5179 87.1054 88.023 88.7382 91.8413 96.4553 97.1465 95.1364 Building 100 101.6316 102.3225 103.0783 90.893 92.4053 74.613 67.7282 71.1392 73.6394 89.9746 89.342 95.6093 88.7513 96.6204 95.2973 96.4246 97.741 99.7646 94.1836 96.8362 100.7828 97.0087 100.0298 97.065 98.3772 97.3356 95.4687 97.0915 94.4983 91.4911 92.184 94.4876 102.4792 121.697 119.0999 Building 100 101.6669 102.3887 103.3299 91.2278 92.8167 74.9453 68.0866 71.5435 74.0478 98.8681 99.0547 97.4769 96.1765 103.0498 103.1832 101.3038 102.5354 105.9689 102.6267 107.9302 108.205 103.6982 106.8958 103.7473 105.1221 102.8564 100.6858 108.9308 105.9594 102.526 103.2433 110.471 121.7998 122.8885 126.6397 Building 100 101.6669 102.3887 103.3299 91.2278 92.8167 74.9453 68.0866 71.5435 74.0478 98.8681 99.0547 97.4769 96.1765 103.0498 103.1832 101.3038 102.5354 105.9689 102.6267 107.9302 108.205 103.6982 106.8958 103.7473 105.1221 102.8564 100.6858 108.9308 105.9594 102.526 103.2433 110.471 121.7998 122.8885 126.6397 Building 100 101.6638 102.392 103.3778 90.9527 92.1816 74.7663 77.1937 71.2618 73.9441 96.9924 97.3676 96.6536 95.5558 108.0085 105.5337 100.9386 102.3179 100.5085 100.1463 104.216 107.2556 105.4573 108.6879 105.6929 107.0364 105.8086 101.6884 103.4797 100.6352 95.5873 96.3065 98.6161 103.4185 104.3006 102.3115 Appendix D The Selected Projects for Pre-Sale and After-TOP Comparison 164 Table D.2g Index Values of Orchid Park Time Q1 1991 Q2 1991 Q3 1991 Q4 1991 Q1 1992 Q2 1992 Q3 1992 Q4 1992 Q1 1993 Q2 1993 Q3 1993 Q4 1993 Q1 1994 Q2 1994 Q3 1994 Q4 1994 Q1 1995 Q2 1995 Q3 1995 Q4 1995 Q1 1996 Q2 1996 Q3 1996 Q4 1996 Q1 1997 Q2 1997 Q3 1997 Q4 1997 Q1 1998 Q2 1998 Q3 1998 Q4 1998 Q1 1999 Q2 1999 Q3 1999 Q4 1999 Building 100 114.4147 127.771 125.0521 127.2 157.8246 150.9196 138.097 144.724 148.79 144.159 150.7929 154.1912 174.9814 187.4635 182.5754 141.7114 143.5556 143.6084 153.1715 163.747 234.8649 228.4217 237.3712 224.4052 227.9918 227.5864 222.4094 226.1131 206.209 192.257 173.6489 163.6701 169.0068 171.4264 194.9108 Building 100 114.4119 127.771 125.0522 127.2003 157.8251 151.0003 141.9087 141.1708 143.8248 147.8484 150.7051 137.995 139.3858 148.7572 149.5218 139.0699 133.854 139.7547 161.2688 181.5881 247.6532 237.4352 246.0723 237.1041 241.1195 231.3131 216.8254 220.4376 214.5269 205.6509 206.0439 209.838 158.2115 181.4701 193.881 Building 100 114.4065 127.7735 125.0558 127.2045 157.8221 144.8556 143.7041 144.3596 149.6913 156.5302 143.0042 159.7381 152.1354 148.1125 143.4103 142.4691 151.4253 154.1759 145.8039 152.264 227.7906 227.9735 188.4274 147.3801 180.7833 220.2031 215.2622 218.8486 212.9858 190.2135 190.7209 165.9725 171.4511 186.1996 199.8376 Building 100 114.4007 127.775 125.0581 127.2074 157.8204 142.1676 136.9284 142.8712 144.6031 144.0425 156.0072 144.7308 143.1577 163.9281 187.8778 167.3816 196.4847 178.9646 139.018 152.1286 182.6773 226.4084 233.7428 225.6693 229.6896 228.6876 223.2421 226.916 220.8375 211.4858 211.8304 201.6583 171.9991 176.3797 182.4208 Building 100 114.3971 127.7747 125.0582 127.2077 157.8211 155.376 154.2607 141.3765 158.5418 160.3268 149.9711 164.9976 144.6153 177.0433 161.9596 153.3025 163.9819 167.3539 165.7014 187.5111 238.359 234.5897 233.828 233.4887 225.9337 240.2005 228.3452 227.7801 221.679 188.2702 167.4456 143.8107 162.7401 193.3643 185.0156 Building Building 100 114.4147 127.7673 125.0477 127.1952 157.8298 162.545 156.8016 151.6198 147.7655 174.3089 163.0948 179.9549 158.5379 150.9489 168.1795 162.3989 163.9913 154.684 179.9949 203.5027 236.3041 223.0672 234.0996 221.4039 224.9404 219.6472 214.5034 224.0846 218.314 158.9912 148.4283 161.64 173.1466 187.0207 199.9474 100 114.4204 127.7673 125.0472 127.1944 157.8289 143.4487 145.0692 147.5797 147.2828 158.8936 162.3045 159.9276 156.4045 165.5726 149.6077 148.5067 150.0328 175.5582 160.5287 206.9473 234.1248 227.5557 236.9644 215.7439 219.2388 213.6209 208.9771 212.5231 200.5641 192.1547 182.482 185.9527 192.2776 184.4505 182.1599 Appendix D The Selected Projects for Pre-Sale and After-TOP Comparison 165 Table D.2h Index Values of Azalea Park Time Q1 1991 Q2 1991 Q3 1991 Q4 1991 Q1 1992 Q2 1992 Q3 1992 Q4 1992 Q1 1993 Q2 1993 Q3 1993 Q4 1993 Q1 1994 Q2 1994 Q3 1994 Q4 1994 Q1 1995 Q2 1995 Q3 1995 Q4 1995 Q1 1996 Q2 1996 Q3 1996 Q4 1996 Q1 1997 Q2 1997 Q3 1997 Q4 1997 Q1 1998 Q2 1998 Q3 1998 Q4 1998 Q1 1999 Q2 1999 Q3 1999 Q4 1999 Building 100 118.8763 119.574 94.7228 96.1887 94.1595 102.6111 116.9267 118.914 122.0492 120.6295 117.7131 117.5727 117.3113 124.6042 120.3362 121.2128 121.7772 122.3372 120.4578 125.4669 126.4027 122.2926 126.6514 122.8793 126.924 125.7496 122.8601 126.3683 123.4557 119.0711 120.5352 123.9931 152.7704 154.4693 151.7114 Building 100 118.8756 119.5749 94.7213 96.188 94.1591 102.6126 116.9059 118.8852 122.9856 119.3899 119.3665 113.6205 114.9326 115.8387 116.2156 110.7382 111.0042 113.8246 107.7272 111.865 116.5163 112.5463 114.4964 109.6993 114.0392 118.8603 119.978 150.1964 160.4297 169.1521 158.0495 162.4057 148.9724 176.3074 173.0589 Building 100 118.8756 119.5772 94.724 96.1922 94.1632 102.614 116.8943 118.8713 121.1051 119.922 118.4317 118.1547 118.1466 124.3372 121.4892 118.8896 119.4628 118.8174 116.6836 124.1142 125.9041 121.3444 125.0975 121.2704 126.1025 126.5951 123.887 139.0194 135.8003 144.6954 145.992 150.3189 167.5348 178.9634 175.675 Building 100 118.8764 119.5817 94.7333 96.204 94.1743 102.6157 116.8965 118.8718 120.0991 119.0373 119.3025 118.3842 117.9907 123.1336 121.075 121.2899 122.0553 122.4966 118.6548 125.5603 124.8025 121.5081 125.1873 121.8334 126.3302 125.9848 123.2501 148.8339 145.1335 140.1619 141.5705 154.379 162.4548 187.9176 189.4137 Building 100 118.8767 119.5807 94.7334 96.2033 94.1735 102.6147 116.9089 118.8865 123.2196 121.9163 120.2666 120.4967 120.2055 126.7941 123.7592 125.1585 124.0591 123.5584 121.4518 126.2185 127.2203 123.109 126.8638 123.4159 129.458 129.0383 126.1791 129.8911 126.7134 130.5753 132.0046 145.1695 169.5835 171.5778 177.9251 Building 100 118.877 119.5775 94.7304 96.1982 94.1683 102.6124 116.9295 118.9166 122.7196 122.6634 119.5514 120.2418 120.5626 126.7602 123.755 123.7919 123.309 125.0834 122.1192 126.7347 128.6768 123.6165 127.9061 123.8491 129.0738 127.5548 125.5696 128.6731 139.1458 134.1713 142.06 153.8115 161.3145 184.6121 187.772 Finally, figure D.1a to figure D.1h plot the building indices of each project separately Appendix D The Selected Projects for Pre-Sale and After-TOP Comparison 166 Figure D.1a Price Indices of Buildings in Park East 250 Building 150 Index Value 200 Building Building 100 Building 50 Building Q 1 Q 99 1 Q 991 Q 99 2 Q 993 1 Q 99 4 Q 994 Q 99 Q 996 1 Q 99 Q 997 Q 99 19 99 Time Note: Temporary occupation permit (TOP) date is Dec 31, 1994 300 250 200 150 100 50 Q 1 Q 991 1 Q 992 1 Q 993 1 Q 994 1 Q 995 1 Q 996 1 Q 997 1 Q 998 19 99 Index Value Figure D.1b Price Indices of Buildings in The Summit Time Note: Temporary occupation permit (TOP) date is Dec 31, 1994 Building Building Building Building Building Building Appendix D The Selected Projects for Pre-Sale and After-TOP Comparison 167 Figure D.1c Price Indices of Buildings in Elias Green Index Value 200 150 Building 100 Building Building 50 Building Q 19 Q 91 19 Q 92 1 Q 993 19 Q 94 19 Q 95 19 Q 96 19 Q 97 1 Q 998 19 99 Building Building Building Time Note: Temporary occupation permit (TOP) date is Dec 31, 1994 Figure D.1d Price Indices of Buildings in Bishan Park Index Value 250 200 Building Building Building Building Building 150 100 50 Q 1 Q 991 Q 991 Q 992 Q 993 1 Q 994 Q 994 Q 995 Q 996 1 Q 997 Q 997 Q 998 19 99 Time Note: Temporary occupation permit (TOP) date is Dec 31, 1994 Appendix D The Selected Projects for Pre-Sale and After-TOP Comparison 168 Figure D.1e Price Indices of Buildings in Avila Garden Index Value 250 200 Building Building 150 Building Building Building 100 50 Building Q 1 Q 991 Q 991 Q 992 Q 993 1 Q 994 Q 994 Q 995 Q 996 1 Q 997 Q 997 Q 998 19 99 Time Note: Temporary occupation permit (TOP) date is Dec 31, 1995 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Building Building Building Building Building Building Q 1 Q 991 Q 991 Q 992 Q 993 1 Q 994 Q 994 Q 995 Q 996 1 Q 997 Q 997 Q 998 19 99 Index Value Figure D.1f Price Indices of Buildings in BT Regency Time Note: Temporary occupation permit (TOP) date is Dec 31, 1995 Appendix D The Selected Projects for Pre-Sale and After-TOP Comparison 169 Figure D.1g Price Indices of Buildings in Orchid Park Index Value 300 250 Building 150 100 Building Building 50 Building Building Q 1 Q 991 Q 991 Q 992 Q 993 1 Q 994 Q 994 Q 995 Q 996 1 Q 997 Q 997 Q 998 19 99 200 Building Building Time Note: Temporary occupation permit (TOP) date is Jan 15, 1996 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Building Building Building Building Building Building Q 1 Q 991 Q 991 Q 992 Q 993 1 Q 994 Q 994 Q 995 Q 996 1 Q 997 Q 997 Q 998 19 99 Index Value Figure D.1h Price Indices of Buildings in Azalea Park Time Note: Temporary occupation permit (TOP) date is Dec 31, 1996 .. .A SPATIO- TEMPORAL AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL FOR MULTI- UNIT RESIDENTIAL MARKET ANALYSIS SUN HUA (B.Econ (Nankai University) 1999) A THESIS SUBMITTED FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE (ESTATE MANAGEMENT)... based on Singapore condominium transaction data from 1990 to 1999 show that in multi- unit residential market, a two order spatio- temporal autoregressive model incorporates more spatial information... market to be weaker compared with that of the multi- unit market Therefore, the current ways in treating spatial -temporal autocorrelation problem in a single-family market may not perform equally