Rủi ro tiềm ẩn nợ công việt nam và một số vấn đề đặt ra

TAI CHINH-TIENTE Sd hull quan ly, hieu qua hoqt dong va gia trj doanh nghiep - nghien cCfu cac cong ty tren thj trudng chCirng Ichoan Viet Nam VO XUAN VINH ghien ciiu ndy xem xet moi quan he giita cdu true sd hOu vd hieu qud hoat dong cua cdc cdng ty niem yet tren sdn giao dich chiing khoan thdnh phd'Ho Chi Minh tit 2007 d^n 2012. Ket qud cho thay cdc cdng ty cd sd hUu quan ly cdng cao thi hiiu qud hoat dong cdng thap. Hdn niia, nghien citu cho thay cdc cong ty cd ty le sd hitu quan ly cao thi khdng dUdc thi trudng danh gid cao, thi hien viec cdc nhd ddu tU khdng dinh gid cao viec cdc co dong kiim quan ly diiu hdnh cdng ty. Do vay, kit qud nghien citu ung ho sz/ tach bach giita vai tro sd hitu vd vai tro quan ly doanh nghiep. 1. Gidi t h i $ u C^ng vdi sU p h a t trien cua t h i trudng chCtng khoan, sd'lUdng cae cdng ty niem yet tang ddn qua cac n a m . Cho de'n cud'i n a m 2012, sd lUdng eac doanh nghiep niem yet tren s a n giao dich chiing k h o a n Hd Chi Minh la 314 d o a n h nghiep. Mdt nhflng va'n dd d a n g dUdc q u a n t a m txi nhieu bdn lidn quan, dac bidt la n h a d a u tU, cac nha lap p h a p va cac hoc gia q u a n t a m la va'n dd sd hiJu q u a n 1^, hieu qua hoat ddng va gia tri thi t r u d n g ciia doanh nghiep. Cac nhdm cd ddng k h a c n h a u thi cd nhflng quydn Idi va Idi ich khac n h a u , ed nhflng quan he khac n h a u vdi chinh phu, vdi n g a n hang, vdi ddi tae chien lUdc, n e n cd ca'u sd hflu cd a n h hudng Idn de'n nhiSng quydt dinh cua doanh nghiep va tae ddng ddn hi^u qua hoat dong cua doanh nghiep khac nhau. Tren t h e gidi da cd nhidu nghien eflu xem xdt tac ddng ciia sd hflu q u a n ly den hi$u qua b o a t ddng va gia tri cua doanh nghidp, nhien ket qua chua thd'ng nha't (Davies et al. 2005; Rose 2005; Smith 1990). Hdn nfla, va'n de tach bach gifla vai trd ciia chii sd hflu doanh nghiep va vai trd cua ngUdi didu h a n h , q u a n ly doanh nghiep la mdt va'n de t h u b u t sU quan t a m eua nhidu ben, cd cae nha quan ly thi trudng va cdc n h a lap chinh sach. Va'n dd ddi hdi dUdc quan t a m ciing vdi sU p h a t trien cua cac nen kinh te, dae biet la eac nen kinh te mdi ndi nhU Viet Nam n h a m dam bao doanh nghiep boat ddng minh bach, vi Idi ich eua eac cd ddng va td'i da hda gia tri doanh nghiep. Nghien cUu ndy ed mdt sd h a m y cho chinh sach kinh te hien tai eua chmh phii. Mot la, nghien cUu va hidu bidt ve ca'u trtic sd hflu, hieu qua boat ddng va gia tri eua doanh nghiep la mdt cdng cu cua chinh phu viec dam bao hieu qua boat ddng tot nha't cung nhU td'i da hda gia tri eua doanh nghiep (Kang & Kim 2012). Hai Id, nghien ciiu cd ham y quan cho nha dau tU, cac hoe gia va cac nha lam chinh sach viec phan dinh rd chUe nang quan ly va chUc nang sd hflu mot doanh nghiep. Ba Id, nghien eflu cd y nghia tham khao, lam ed sd khoa hoe cho viec tai ca'u tnic thi trudng ehling khoan Viet Nam, dam bao Idi I'ch cho cac nha dau tU va eac co ddng ddu tU tren thi trUdng chUng khoan Viet Nam. V6 Xuan Vinh, TS., Trudng dai hoc Kinh ttf phd H6 Chi Minh. 37 sd hOu quan ly, hlfiu qua , Ngoai ra, nghien eflu ve quan hd sd hflu cua n h a quan ly, hieu qua hoat ddng va gia tri doanh nghiep d Viet Nam chUa nhieu. Do vay, mdt ddng gdp nfla ve m a t khoa hoc cua nghidn ciiu la lam giau cho kho t a n g hoc t h u a t vd chu de sd hflu quan ly cung nhU quan h e gifla sd hflu quan ly va hieu qua boat ddng, gia tri doanh nghiep d Vidt N a m . 2. Cd sd ly t h u y e t v a gia t h u y e t n g h i e n ciiu Jensen & Meckling (1976) dat n e n mdng cho nghidn ciiu vd chu de cho r a n g ca'u t n i c sd hflu ed tae ddng ddn hieu qua hoat dong cua doanh nghidp. Nghien eflu cho rang neu mdt doanh nghiep ed cac ed ddng Idn thi se lam tang hieu qua boat ddng va gia tri doanh nghiep. Tuy nhien, kho tang hoc t h u a t cd nhieu nghien eflu bac bd quan didm (La Porta et al. 1999). Nhflng nghien eflu bac bd luan didm dUa tren ly thuye't ngUdi dai didn (agency theory) cho rang, mdt doanh nghiep dUdc sd hflu bdi eac loai eo ddng Idn se ed hidn tUdng cac ed ddng Idn t h u Idi rieng cho ho, lam cho doanh nghiep cd hieu qua hoat ddng kem hdn. Nhfl vay, se ed sfl mat can bang gifla Idi ich ciia cd dong quan ly va cae ed ddng khac. De kiem soat dUde su ma't can bang Idi ich nay, cae ed dong ben ngoai se ed cae bidn phap giam sat va phat sinh chi phi dai dien. Can cfl vao ly thuyet nay, sd hflu quan ly cang cao thi hieu qua hoat ddng tha'p va gia tri thi trudng cdng ty tha'p, trU phi cae cd dong ben ngoai khac cd the kiem scat chi phi dai dien dd'i vdi quan he gifla cac n h a quan ly va CO ddng khac mdt each it ton kem nhat. Trong thfle te, eac co dong hen ngoai khdng the kiem soat dUde vdi chi phi tha'p dd, cho nen xet ve mat trung binh chung, sd hflu quan ly cang cao se lam giam hieu qua hoat dong cua doanh nghiep va thi trUdng danh gia doanh nghiep thd'p hdn. Va'n de trd nen nghiem hdn d cac nUdc dang p h a t trien n h u Viet Nam, dieu kien va kha nang kiem soat eua ludt phap chUa hoan chinh, ehUa bao ve dUdc cd ddng nhd. 38 J e n s e n & Meckling (1976) cho rang, sfl hflu t a p t r u n g cao tao r a rihiSng eo ddng Idn va cd nhiJng u u tien cho Idi ich rieng eua ho. Ty Id sd hflu cua n h a q u a n ly cang tang thi co t h d hudng Idi ich eua n h a q u a n ly gidng vffi Idi ich eua ed ddng, k h i dd n h a quan l;y co nhflng ddng lue m a n h me de lam toi da hoa gia tri cdng ty bang each tao hidu qua hoat ddng cua doanh nghiep cao hdn. Lap luan dUdc hd trd bdi nhidu nghien eflu sau (Grossman & H a r t 1986; J e n s e n et al. 1992; J e n s e n & Meckling 1976; Rozeff 1982). NgUdc lai, Demsetz & Lehn (1985) cho r ^ g , ty le sd hflu qua Idn cua n h a quan ly cd th^ lam cho ho ludn nghi ve Idi ich cua minh hdn Idi ich cua co ddng ben ngoai, do eac cdng ty cd sd hflu quan ly thUdng cd hieu qua hoat dpng thdp hdn. Lap luan dUde hd trd nhieu nghien eflu sau (Agrawal & Jayaraman 1994; H a r a d a & Nguyen 2011; Jensen et al. 1992; Short et al. 2002). Gid thuyet nghien citu Tii ed sd ly thuye't, vdi nhflng lap luan nhU tren, va ke't qua eua eac nghien ciiu tnldc, dac biet dfla tren hoan canh thfle tiln cua Viet Nam, tac gia dUa r a eac gia thuyet nghidn eflu nhfl sau: H I : Ty le scf hflu quan ly^ cang cao thi hiSu qua hoat ddng cua doanh nghiep cang th^p. H2: Ty le sd hflu q u a n ly cang cao thi gia tri doanh nghiep cang tha'p. 3. Dfi l i e u , m o h i n h v a p h U d n g phdp n g h i e n cCfu Chung tdi s^ dung dii lieu cua mau nghien eflu la cac doanh nghiep niem ydt tren Bka giao dich chflng khoan t h a n h phd' Hd Cbi Minh. Dfl lieu nghien eflu dUdc t h u thap cua 259 cdng ty niem yet t r e n san giao dich chiing khoan Ho Chi Minh giai doan tijf 2007 den 2012 tfl cac bao cao tai chinh, bao c^o thudng nien eua cae cdng ty dflde cdng bo va tfl sd giao dich chflng khoan HOSE. Dfl li^u khdng bao gom eac edng ty sap nhap, cdng ty t a i chinh giai doan nghidn eflu. Dfl li^u cd ca'u ca'u t n i c dfl lieu bang. NghiSn ci3u Kinh tds6434 - Thing 7/201 sfi hiiru qufin ly, hifiu qufi . Tfl cac nghien eflu trUdc eua Rose (2005) va Li et al. (2007), md h i n h nghien eflu dflde sii dung n h u sau: ddng khac chia cho tdng sd' ed phieu dang luu h a n h ciia edng ty d thdi diem cuoi nam tai chinh; PERFORMANCE,! = a + p^MAN^ + p gSIZE^ + P4DEBT,, + PaGROW.^ + p5TURN,,+ e,t SIZEit la chi sd dai dien cho quy md ciia cdng ty i d n a m t. Quy md edng ty bang logarit t u nhien tong tdi san tai thdi didm cudi n a m tai chinh (Chen et al. 2005; Gugler & Yurtoglu 2003; Harada & Nguyen 2011; Smith & Watts 1992; Wei & Xiao 2009). va VALUEit = a + p iMAN,t + p gSIZE,! + p 4DEBTit 4- PaGROW^t + P5TURN,t+ 8,, dd; PERFORMANCE,t la chi so lUdng hieu qua boat ddng cua doanh nghidp, dUdc ludng bdi h a i chi so EPS va ROA t a i thdi diem cudi n a m t cua cdng ty i, dd chi sd EPS dai dien cho t h u n h a p ciia mdi cd phieu (hay dai dien cho k h a nang sinh Idi doanh nghidp ddi vdi mdi cd ddng) va ROA dai dien cho k h a nang sinh Idi hay hieu qua tao r a thu n h a p cua tai san. EPS dUdc t i n h bang thu n h a p sau t h u d chia cho sd cd phieu dang lUu h a n h va ROA dUdc xac dinh bang Idi nhuan sau thud' d a n h cho ed ddng ciia cdng ty me tren tong tai san d thdi diem cudi nam tai chfnh (Wei & Xiao 2009). VALUEit la chi sd ludng gia tri eua doanh nghidp, dUdc ludng bdi hai chi sd' TobinQ va MTB tai thdi diem cudi n a m t eua cdng ty i, dd chi sd' Tobin Q dai dien cho gia tri t a i san doanh nghidp dieu chinh theo thi trudng va MTB dai dien cho gia tri ky vpng eua n h a d i u t u dd'i vdi doanh nghiep. TobinQ dUde tinh b^ng gia tri thi trUdng cua tai san va nd t r e n gia tri sd sach eiia tai san va nd. Do Viet Nam chUa cd thi trUdng nd va khdng cd sd lidu chinh thfle ve nd nen nghien ciiu gia dinh gia tri thi trudng eua nd b^ng gia tri sd sach. MTB dUdc tinh bang gia tri thi trudng cua doanh nghidp (tinh bang vdn hda thi trUdng chia chd gia tri sd sach cua doanh nghiep tai thdi diem cud'i nam)(Kang & Kim 2012). - Sd hflu cua ed ddng quan ly (MANjt) la ty le sd hflu cua co ddng quan ly doanh nghiep dflde xac dinh bang sd ed phan sd hflu bdi ban giam dd'e, ke toan trfldng va ke ca phin cac t h a n h vien dai didn cho cac ed NghiSn cdu Kinh t^sd434 • Thing 7/2014 DEBTjt dai dien cho ty le nd cua cdng ty i d nam t. Nhidu nghien eflu cho tha'y ty le nd la ydu t d chinh ed tdc ddng quyet dinh den hieu qua boat ddng cua cdng ty, dac biet la giai doan khd khan eua nen kinh te Viet Nam. Mdt cdng ty cd ty le nd tha'p thi cd nhieu kha nang hoat ddng hidu qua vd mat tai chinh cao hdn la cac edng ty ed ty le nd cao. DEBT dflde xac dinh b i n g tdng nd tren tdng tai san tai thdi diem cudi nam tai chinh (Aivazian et al. 2003; Jensen et al. 1992; Wei & Xiao (2009). GROW,t la chi sd' dai dien cho cd hdi tang trudng ciia cdng ty i tai thdi diem t. TUdng tu nhu Wei & Xiao (2009), chung tdi sfl dung ty le tang trUdng tai san ciia cdng ty de dai dien cho ed hdi tang trUdng eua edng ty. Cdng ty ed ed hoi tang trUdng cao thi dUde gia dinh la hoat ddng ed hieu qua hdn cae cdng ty khdng cd cd hdi tang trUdng (Smith & Watts 1992). TUEN,t la ehi sd' doanh thu cua edng ty va cd tae ddng true tiep de'n Idi nhuan eua cong ty. Khi Udc lUdng md hinh hdi quy thi TURN dUdc tinh bang logarit tfl nhien eua tdng doanh thu cua edng ty (Bhattaeharya & Graham 2009; Himmelberg et al. 1999). e,t la phan dfl khdng quan sat cua cdng ty i d thdi diem t. Phitdng phdp nghien ciiu Chung tdi sfl dung phUdng phap nghien eflu la phUdng phap Ude lUdng hdi quy cho dfl lieu bang. Thdng thUdng, vdi md hinh hdi quy dfl lieu bang thi cd hai flde Ifldng la flde lUdng ed dinh (fixed effects) va Ude lUdng nglu nhien (random effects). Nghien eflu sfl dung kiem 39 sfi h&u qudn ly, hlfiu qufi , dinh H a u s m a n d l lua chon udc lUdng co^ dinh hay Udc lUdng n g l u nhien. Ket qua kiem dinh H a u s m a n cho th^y cae md hinh hdi quy sfl dung ude lUdng cd dinh dUdc lua chon. De tinh gon, chung tdi khdng t r i n h bay cae k e t qua kidm dinh d day. Ngoai ra, nghien eflu cdn sfl dung flde Ifldng GMM (Generahzed Methods of Moments) de udc lUdng md h i n h n h u la mdt phUdng thfle dam bao tin cay cho k e t qua nghien eflu. Udc Ifldng GMM dUdc coi la mot Udc Ifldng ifti vi|t cd the khac phuc hien tUdng noi sinh md h i n h dUa r a k e t q u a chinh xac hdn. 4. K^t q u a Bang md t a dae t i n h thd'ng kd cua cac bidn nghien eflu. BANG 1; T h o n g k g m o t a c a c b i e n Bien Gia tri t r u n g binli Gia tri ][...]... cdng - rui ro vd nliung gii phdp thdo ga Thcfi bao Kinh te Viet Nam Sd 112 + 113 Ngay 10-11-5-2013 3 Reihart - Rogoff (2010), Growth in th times of debt American Economics, Review 4 Minh E)uc (2013), 5 ndm sau cm lu khung hoangNude d Viet Nam nit cliam hon, www.vnecomomy.vn 5 Didp Vu (2014), Filch cong bdloat dinh gid tich cwr ve Viet Nam www.vneconomy.vn, ngay 25-1-2014 6 NguyenAnh'nia(2014) ,ro/ i^rt'rtt/«/ig... trd OuP/ nam6 7c ngodi, www.cafef.vn, r^ay 24-5-2013 13 Thanh Hung (2012), Cdn dinh gid lai tdi sdn bao dam bang bdt dong sdn •wwvj.caM.\n, ngay 10-21-2012 14 Wen Yang, Liang Hai Lei (2012), A Comprehensive Approach to the European Sovereigen Debt Crisis - lis roots, process and intlightenment on China, Advances in Asian Social Science (AASS) Vol 2, No.4) 15 Thu Huong (2014), Emst&Young: "Viit Nam si... sodt tot lam phdt: nhin tH qudc te'den trong mtdc, www.t^x;hitaichinh.vn, ngly 8-1-2014 8 Mai Thu Hien, Nguyen Thj Nhu Nguyet (2011), FM hinh na cong vd quan ly na cdng tai Viit Nam, TE^ chi Ng9n hang, sd 14,2011 9 Doan TrSn (2014), Hai du dn bauxit: Cdn trong M liff na, vAvw.vneconomy.vn, ngay 25-2-2014 10 Luu Thijy (2012), No xdu tai Ngdn hang Phdt trien Viet Nam seduac xii ly nhu the nao? www.cafef.vn,...Rui ro tlfim an no cfing BANG 3: Xep h a n g mite do rui ro nd c o n g c u a m o t so' nvi&c n a m 2013 Source Oxford Econorriios idn: Thu Huong, 2014 Viec x e p h a n g mUc do riii r o v e n d c d n g c u a t d chiic E r n s t & Y . Peru (tU nam 1988 va keo dai trong 8 thang); Achentina (tix nam 1989 va keo dai trong 11 thang), Braxin (tU nam 1989 va keo dai trong 4 thang). TrUdc khi khung hoang nd nd ra, cae chudi^. lam phat, trong dd ed 5 trUdng hdp xay ra d khu vUc My Latinh: Khung hoang tai Bolivia (bdt dau vao nam 1984 va keo dai trong vdng 14 thang); Nicaragoa (tii nam 1987 va keo ddi trong 48 thang);. m£& quan he trai chidu chi xay ra trong trudng hdp mot sdit cac nUdc (My, Uc). • Thdm hut kep tai Viet Nam Bdi chi ngan sach cua Vidt Nam da hen tuc tang cao trong nhieu nam trd lai day.