Các kịch bản năng lượng hướng tới nền kinh tế không phát khí thải cho việt nam

LUT NGHIP GVHD: TS.Võ Ving  Trang v       ,                                     . ,               m                trong    2011-2030.                                ,    ,            ,        ,      LEAP (Long- range Energy Alternative Planning System)                   .                                  . 3  4                              ,                   . 5          6      -2030). 7          .    2030      208MTOE v , 220    228         . Trong                      2030  148.2MTOE, 152.1   152.7       . LUT NGHIP GVHD: TS.Võ Ving  Trang vi     2030,   2         5.6, 5.3  5.4 /  /          ,           .              571, 552  541    .                         , n2030  244.4, 223.8  214.6   CO2/year.  ,         (  2018)        .            .     ,   ,           , n                                   .      2030            42.6  , 44.6  45.0 .      2030      63.1   /         , 77.1   /             84.1   /          .                      2013     .  2030     35.9MTOE/    , 41.1MTOE/         46.2MTOE/      .                   2030  91%      .                         69% 80%                        , ,     ,    LUT NGHIP GVHD: TS.Võ Ving  Trang vii ABSTRACT Energy, particularly electric energy has been proven to be a driving force in economic development for every country, including Vietnam. Therefore topic Energy scenarios to move toward a zero-emission economic of Vietnam  executed with the objective of building various scenarios of energy  environment, which may occur in Vietnam from 2011 to 2030. Factors that influence the energy demands and level of environmental emissions include population growth rate, GDP growth rate, planned development of field economics, level of urbanization, production technology and energy consumption, etc., were investigated in this study. Software, LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System) was used to analyze and simulate scenarios of energy  environment. Thesis consists of 7 chapters. Chapter 1 to chapter 2 presented an overview of research issues and theories related to energy and environment in Vietnam and around the world. Chapter 4 and chapter 5 presented the current status of energy resources in Vietnam as well as the current status of energy consumption and emissions in field economics of Vietnam, which were used as a database to build the scenarios of energy  environment. Chapter 6 presented all basis for propose to build the energy scenarios in Vietnam and introduced LEAP software. Chapter 7 presented the result of energy  environment scenarios toward a zero-emission economic of Vietnam in the period 2011-2030 by applying LEAP software. The results show that primary energy demand in Vietnam tends to increase, with a value of 208MTOE in Reference scenario, 220MTOE in Average growth scenario and 228MTOE in High growth scenario in year 2030. While, the total demand of energy consumption in economic fields is predicted to come to an amount of 148.2MTOE, 152.1MTOE and 152.7MTOE along with scenarios in 2030. Forecast to 2030, the average CO2 emissions of Vietnam will be at 5.6, 5.3 and 5.4 tons/person/year along with Reference, Average and High scenario. The LUT NGHIP GVHD: TS.Võ Ving  Trang viii greenhouse gas emissions under the scenarios are 571 million tonnes of CO2/year, 552 million tones of CO2/year and 541 million tones of CO2/year in 2030. Therein, the greenhouse gas emissions from energy transformation operations are contributing with a great significance. By year 2030, emissions from these activities are 244.4 million tones of CO2/year, 223.8 million tones of CO2/year and 214.6 million tones of CO2/year follow the scenarios. Only with High growth scenario, we can provide enough electricity (from 2018) and petroleum products (from 2028) for domestic demand. Imported coal and emissions also are lowest. Average growth scenario is relatively feasible, we can guarantee to provide nearly enough electricity demand and reduce the import of coal and oil products as well as emissions compared to Reference scenario. The investment costs for power plants and generation to 2030 are forecasted at 42.6 billion USD for Reference scenario, 44.6 billion USD for Average scenario and 45.0 billion USD for High scenario. Coal mining sector reaches a value 63.1 million tones/year in 2030 for Reference scenario, 77.1 million tones/year for Average growth, and 84.1 million tones/year for High growth scenario. In any case, Vietnam should start to import coal to meet shortfall for domestic requirements from 2013. Production output of domestic oil products will reach 35.9MTOE/year in 2030 for Reference scenario, and reach 41.1MTOE/year for the Average growth and 46.2MTOE/year for the High growth scenario. If we are able to achieve High growth rate, we can provide 91% the requirement of domestic market in 2030. With Reference and Average scenario, this value is 69% and 80% in 2030. The results also show that energy consumption and gas emissions can be reduced in terms of the growth rate through variety of measures such as technology, policies and energy saving. LUT NGHIP GVHD: TS.Võ Ving  Trang ix MC LC TRANG    Quy  i  ii    iii  iv  v Abstract vii c ix     xiii        xiv        xvi Chng 1 1  1  2  2  3  4  4  6  7  7  7  8  8  9 1.5 Phng pháp và ph 9 Chng 2 10 C  10 LUT NGHIP GVHD: TS.Võ Ving  Trang x c  11  14 2.3           ng      . 15  15 on). 15   15   . 17 Chng 3 20 G L 20  20  21 3.2 ng s . 21 3.2.1             . 21 3.2.2               . 29   . 33   33  35  38 3.3.4    41 Chng 4 43 L  43 4.1 C     . 44 2       Nam. 45 4.2.1   . 45  48  49 4.2.4  51 4.2.5  53 4.2.6  Lâm  Ng. 55 4.2.7   56 LUT NGHIP GVHD: TS.Võ Ving  Trang xi Chng 5 60 C  -2030 60  60 5.1 C  61  61  61  ng . 62  62  63  môi tr 65  67  67  69  73  73  74  75 5.5 Gi   - môi tr 77 5.5.1 L 77  79  80 5.6 Gi     81 Chng 6 83   83 6.1 C s . 84  Key Assumptions. 84 6.1.2 C s . 85 - Demand. 86 - Households. 86  Industry. 91 LUT NGHIP GVHD: TS.Võ Ving  Trang xii  Transport. 98  Lâm  Ng (Agriculture  Foresting  Fishing). 103   Others). 106  Transformation. 110  110 eration). 110 6.3.3 c  118 6.3.4 Khai thác than (Coal Mining). 121  123 6.4 ng. 124 6.4.1     (/v: ) 125 6.4.2   (/v:   ng). 126 6.4.3     (/v:   ng - MTOE). 126 6.5  127 6.5.1 . 127 6.5.2 ng s    2030. 128 Chng 7 130      130 7.1         130 7.2      132  135  138 LUT NGHIP GVHD: TS.Võ Ving  Trang xiii          BOT Built  Operation - Transfer CDM Clean Development Mechanism CER Certified Emission Reduction CNG Compressed Natural Gas EVN Vietnam Electricity GJ Gigajoule GTVT      IPP Independent Power Producer IPPC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers kWh Kilowattt-Hour LEAP Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas MMBTU Million British Thermal Unit MTOE Million Tonne of Oil Equivalent TOE Tonne of Oil Equivalent TCE Tonne of Coal Equivalent KTV/Vinacomin Vietnam National Coal  Mineral Industries Group PVN/Petrovietnam Vietnam Oil and Gas Group WMO World Meteorological Organization LUT NGHIP GVHD: TS.Võ Ving  Trang xiv         TRANG 3.1:                  22 3.2:  28 3.3:  29 3.4:  36 3.5:  36 3.6:  37 3.7: . 38 3.8: Các nhà m 39 3.9:      . 40 3.10:    . 41 4.1:    45 4.2:  45 5.1: ÷2030 61 5.2: ÷2030 62 5.3:   (2011÷2030) 62 5.4:  lâm-     62 5.5: 2010 63 5.6:  63 5.7:  64 5.8:                 2010 64  5.9: trong   ,     69 5.10:   70 5.11:    71 5.12:  72 5.13:       . 80 6.1:  84 6.2:  84 6.3:   86 6.4: 2030 87 6.5:  2030         88 6.6:  2030 90 6.7:     2011÷2030 92 [...]... lượng hướng tới nền kinh tế không phát khí thải cho việt nam “Energy scenarios to move toward a zero-emission economic of Vietnam” 1.1.2 T m quan tr ng c aălƿnhăv c nghiên c u Đ uătiênălƠăs ăsuyăgi mănhanhăch́ng các ngu nătƠiănguyênăkhoángăs năŕnă không th̉ăph căh i,ăn u không ć các bi năphápăđ̉ăgĩăgìnăvƠăs ăd ngăh pălỦ các lo iătƠiănguyênănƠyăthìăvi căc năki tătƠiănguyênăs ăs măx yăra,ăkéoătheo các v... mă không phát th i”ă(Zeroăemission) Đ iăv i các n n kinh t ăńiăchungăvƠ các ngu nănĕngăl ngăńiăriêng, không phát th iăđ năgi nălƠăđ ăc păđ n các ho tăđ ngăs năxu t, kinh doanh,ăho tăđ ngăs ă d ngănĕngăl ngầămƠ không th iăra các ch tăth iăgơyăôănhi mămôiătr ngăvƠălƠmă thayăđ i khí h u Th ăgi iăđangăh ngăt i các m cătiêuăchi năl đ ngăth iăgi m phát th iăraămôiătr gọiălƠăchi năl c kinh t ă“nĕngăl c phát trỉn kinh t... ̣ Nam, h ̣ngăcoăthể ăxảyăraă ̉ ăViê ̣tă ngăt iăm tăn n kinh t phát trỉnăb năṽng , gi m phát th iăraămôiătr Nhĕmăxácăđ nhăxuăh ng ngăs ̉ ădu ̣ngănĕngăl ̣ng , kh ănĕngăcu ngăcơpătrongăn ng c , các v năđ ăti mănĕng , tìnhătr ng phát th iăvƠ các tácăđ ngăćăth̉ăćăc a các chínhăsáchă nĕngăl ngăđôiăv iăthiătr ̣ ngănĕngăl ̣ngăViê ̣t Nam ăT ăđ́ăhìnhăthƠnhănênăỦăt ngă v ăđ ătƠi:ă Các kịch bản năng lượng. .. phát trỉnă kinh t ăxanh” Bênăc nhăđ́, ápăl căc aăkh ngăho ngănĕngăl ngăcũngăt oăti năđ cho s phát trỉnăc aăn nă kinh t ăxanh”ănhằmăduyătrìăs phát trỉn kinh t ăb năṽng, không phát th iăgơyăôănhi mămôiătr ng,ăb oăv ămôiătr HVTH:ăNguy năMinhăDũng ngăs ng Trang 15 LU NăVĔNăT T NGHI P GVHD: TS.Võ Vi tăC ng Ńiăm tăcáchăt ngăquát, phát trỉnă kinh t ăxanh”ălƠănh̃ngăho tăđ ng kinh t ă d aătrên các nguyênăt́căc... ,ăth căhi n các d ăánăgi m phát th i khí nhƠăkínhăt i các n đangă phát trỉnă vƠă nh nă đ că tínă d ngă d (CERs)”.ăKho nătínăd ngănƠyăđ HVTH:ăNguy năMinhăDũng că iă d ngă “Ch ngă nh nă gi mă phát th i cătínhăvƠoăch ătiêuăgi m phát th i khí nhƠăkínhăc aă Trang 12 LU NăVĔNăT T NGHI P các n GVHD: TS.Võ Vi tăC c phát trỉn,ăgíp các n ng cănƠyăth căhi năcamăk tăgi m phát th i đ nhăl ngă khí nhà kính... ng, các qu că ngăđ n các chínhăsáchăvƠăk ăho ch phát trỉnătheoăh ngă ngăs ngăbằngăcáchănghiênăc u các bi năphápăđ̉ăgi măthỉuăt iăđaă các khí th iătrongăquáă trình phát trỉn kinh t ăb năṽng ậ gọiăchungălƠăchínhăsáchă nĕngăl ngăxanh Các n căđiăđ uătrongăl̃nhăv cănƠyăćăth̉ăk̉ăđ nănh ăĐ c,ăTh yă S̃,ăĐanăM ch,ăB ăĐƠoăNha,ăM̃,ăHƠnăQu cầ - Tháng 4/2011 Đ căcôngăb ăl ătrìnhăm i cho vi căth căhi n các k... 2010 ậ 2030 ngăđên phát trỉnăb năṽngăvƠăn n kinh t không phát khí th i 1.2 Các k t qu nghiên c uătrongăvƠăngoƠiăn 1.2.1 Các k t qu nghiên c uătrongăn c c Hi nă nayă ćă nhi uă c ă quan,ă t ă ch c,ă đ nă v ă trongă n că thamă giaă các d ă ánă nhằmă xơyă d ngă quyă ho ch, k ă ho chă phát trỉn,ă chínhă sách, chi nă l nĕngăl că phát trỉnă ngă ăVi t Nam nh : - T păĐoƠnăĐi năL căVi t Nam lƠăt păđoƠnăhƠngăđ... duyătrìăt căđ phát trỉnăc a các ngƠnh kinh t ăvƠăb oăv ămôiătr các ngu n tƠiănguyênăđ̉ ćăth̉ phát trỉnăb năṽng HVTH:ăNguy năMinhăDũng Trang 19 ngăs ngăcũngănh ă LU NăVĔNăT T NGHI P GVHD: TS.Võ Vi tăC Ch ng 3 HI N TR NG CÁC NGU NăNĔNGăL NG VI T NAM M CăTIểU: Trình bày - T ngăquát hi nătr ng các ngu nănĕngăl - T̉ăl ăđ́ngăǵpăc a các ngu nănĕngăl N IăDUNG:ăCh ngă ăVi t Nam ngătrongăn n kinh t ăVi t Nam ng... nhi tă đ ă c aă khí quỷnă tráiă đ t.ă Hi nă t di năraătheoăc ăch ăt ngăt ănh ănhƠăkínhătr ngăcơyăvà đ ng này căgọiălƠăhi uă ngănhƠă kính”ă(trích t www.vea.gov.vn) f.ăC ăch phát tri năs chă(CDM ậ Clean Develoment Mechanism) CDMălƠăm tăc ăch ăđ iătácăđ uăt ăgĩa các n c phát trỉnăvƠ các n căđang phát trỉn.ăCDM cho phépăvƠăkhuy năkhích các c ăquan,ăt ăch c,ădoanhănghi păc a các n c phát trỉnăđ uăt... n kinh t ăs chăđ măb o phát ngăs ng Doăđ́, đ ătƠiăđ căth căhi n v iă m că đích: - Đánhăgiáăm tăcáchăt ngăquátăth cătr ngănĕngăl phát trỉn kinh t ăvƠăb oăv ămôiătr ngă ăVi t Nam bênăc nhăvơnăđêă ng - Xemăxetăkh ănĕngăđapă ngănhuăcơuănĕngăl ̣ngăcủaăVi t Nam giaiăđoa ̣nă 2010- 2030 - Xơyăd ng các k chăb nănĕngăl ngă ậ môiătr ngăh ngăđ năphatătriể năki nhăt ăbênă v ̃ ngă- không phat khí th iă ăVi t Nam giaiăđo .   Các kịch bản năng lượng hướng tới nền kinh tế không phát khí thải cho việt nam . “Energy scenarios to move toward a zero-emission economic of Vietnam”. 1.1.2 Tm quan. Oil Equivalent TCE Tonne of Coal Equivalent KTV/Vinacomin Vietnam National Coal  Mineral Industries Group PVN/Petrovietnam Vietnam Oil and Gas Group WMO World Meteorological Organization . economics of Vietnam, which were used as a database to build the scenarios of energy  environment. Chapter 6 presented all basis for propose to build the energy scenarios in Vietnam and introduced