mô hình đinh giá ngân hàng

financial valuation and modelling guide, các phương pháp định giá ngân hàng để đầu tư như DCF, FCFF,FCFE tính toán các tỷ suất, dự báo các mô hình định giá tài sản vốn CAPM rất hay cho bạn nào quan tâm đến lĩnh vực ngân hàng

Valuation and modelling for investment bankers corporate training group • www.ctguk.com | i Valuation and modelling for investment bankers ii | corporate training group • www.ctguk.com Published by The Corporate Training Group 2008 Copyright © 2008 The Corporate Training Group All rights reserved. No part of this work may be reproduced or used in any form whatsoever, including photocopying, without prior written permission of the publisher. This book is intended to provide accurate information with regard to the subject matter covered at the time of publication. However, the author and publisher accept no legal responsibility for errors or omissions in the subject matter contained in this book, or the consequences thereof. The Corporate Training Group 52 Kingsway Place Sans Walk London EC1R 0LU www.ctguk.com At various points in the manual a number of fi nancial analysis issues are examined. The fi nancial analysis implications for these issues, although relatively standard in treatment, remain an opinion of the authors of this manual. No responsibility is assumed for any action taken or inaction as a result of the fi nancial analysis included in the manual. About CTG corporate training group • www.ctguk.com | iii About CTG The Corporate Training Group (CTG) has been in existence since 1994 and has grown to become one of the pre-eminent organisations in the world of fi nance training. Although we take pride in our success, we know that to remain the fi rst choice for our clients, we must constantly provide value, excellence and innovation. For this reason, our approach is to channel our expertise into providing the best in-house tailored fi nance training in the industry. CTG has one of the largest and most experienced trainer faculties in our fi eld. We draw upon full time, dedicated fi nance professionals who specialise in training. Our overriding philosophy is that for training to be effective it needs to be relevant and enjoyable. However, such an approach must be backed up by the necessary expertise. All our tutors have extensive market experience as well as excellent technical understanding. CTG has Specialists in all aspects of valuation who work with global corporates and Investment Banking teams Accountants who are renowned within their fi elds and are able to analyse credit and valuation fundamentals without getting bogged down in the jargon Experts in capital markets who are equally expert in making it practical, interactive and interesting Modellers with a depth of experience in creating robust and fl exible models for many different purposes Unparalled experience in delivering to cross-cultural audiences And many, many more people who love to make training a fun and valuable experience. • • • • • iv | corporate training group • www.ctguk.com Contents corporate training group • www.ctguk.com | v Contents Executive summary Comparable company analysis 1 Precedent transaction analysis 2 Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) 3 Leveraged Buy Out analysis (LBO) 4 Merger analysis (combination) 4 1 • Introduction to valuation 5 An Investment Banking perspective 5 Mergers and acquisitions 5 Demergers and spin offs 8 Private equity valuation 8 IPO valuation 9 Some common pitfalls 10 Seeing the big picture 10 DCF 10 Comparable company analysis 11 Precedent transactions 14 Accretion / dilution analysis 15 2 • Comparable company analysis 17 Introduction 17 Why use comps? 17 Reasons for popularity 18 Potential pitfall areas 18 Structured approach to comps 20 Output – a pure market driven valuation excluding the value of a control premium 20 Contents vi | corporate training group • www.ctguk.com An overview of the comps process 22 Step 1 − Identify the comparable universe of companies 26 Step 2 – Focus on the appropriate fi nancial metrics and ratios 28 What level of valuation are we seeking – equity or enterprise value level? 28 Minority interests 32 Net debt 34 Non-operating cash balances 35 Understanding what drives EV / EBITDA multiples (EV multiple model) 37 Growth adjusted multiples 42 Typical sector specifi c multiples 45 Sources of information 47 Step 3 – Standardise the metric to ensure comparability 48 Is the metric consistently defi ned? 48 Is the metric consistently calculated? 49 Pension scheme defi cits 52 The impact of adjusting for pension defi cits on BA’s EV multiples 54 Exceptional / extraordinary items 55 The impact of adjusting for operating lease on BA’s EV multiples 59 Valuing the target 64 European airlines and airports – valuation multiple 64 Selecting an appropriate comparable multiple 64 Explanation of premia / discounts to peers 65 Consistency of the target earnings metric 66 Breakdown to equity value 66 Common errors made in comps modelling 69 Process checklist for comps 70 Contents corporate training group • www.ctguk.com | vii 3 • Precedent transactions 73 Introduction 73 Structured approach to precedent transactions 75 Identifying the comparable universe 76 Collecting data 79 Comparable universe parameters 80 Using SDC to extract an initial comparable universe 80 Common SDC search fi elds 81 Issues using SDC 83 Sources of information 84 Calculating the relevant multiples 86 Analysing the results and valuing the target 89 Understanding the control premium 90 Why pay a premium? 90 Synergies 90 Premium paid analysis 91 Trading comparables vs. precedent comparables 92 4 • Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) fundamentals 93 Introduction to DCF 93 Free Cash Flow to the Enterprise model 95 Free Cash Flow to the Enterprise 96 Calculation of FCFE 96 Forecasting FCFE 100 Key drivers of FCFE 101 Length of the FCFE forecast period 103 Weighted Average Cost of Capital 106 Cost of debt 107 Contents viii | corporate training group • www.ctguk.com Empirical approach 107 Synthetic approach 108 Risk-free rate of return 108 Credit risk premium 111 Interest tax shield 114 Cost of equity 114 The Capital Asset Pricing Model 115 Risk-free rate of return 116 Equity Market Risk Premium 116 Beta factor 118 Calculating the beta factor 119 Published vs. synthetic beta factors 125 Weighting 127 Calculating the Weighted Average Cost of Capital 129 Year-end vs. mid-year discounting 129 Terminal value 131 Perpetuity growth method 132 Terminal multiple method 133 Cross-checking the two terminal values 133 Calculating the present value of the terminal value 135 Enterprise value 135 Key terminal value drivers 136 Lengthening the explicit forecast horizon 136 Adjusting enterprise value to equity value 136 FCFEq methodology and pitfalls 140 Contents corporate training group • www.ctguk.com | ix 5 • Dividend Discount Model (DDM) 141 Dividend Discount Model 141 Constant dividends 141 Constant growth in dividends 143 Two-stage growth model 147 6 • Advanced DCF valuation 151 Introduction 151 Delevering betas 152 Creating a synthetic (delevered beta) 152 The WACC formula 158 APV valuation 164 Terminal value and growth rates 169 International cost of capital 173 7 • Rothschild standard models 179 Introduction 179 Discounted cash fl ow models 180 Excel set-up 180 Side by side analysis of the 3 DCF models 182 DCF II Overview 182 Model structure 183 How to complete the model 183 The control sheet (In) 184 The broker and in-house sheets (In) 188 The WACC sheet (In) 188 The check sheet (In) 189