Quan hệ kinh tế Việt Nam - Hoa Kỳ triển vọng hợp tác

CHAU MY NGAY NAY SO 06-2010 KINH TE-XA HOI ^' OUAN HE KINH TE VIET NAM ^ HOA KY ^' TRIEN VONG HdP TAC N gay 12 thang 7 nam 1995, Viet Nam va Hoa Ky chinh thiic thiet lap quan he ngoai giao, va lich sii dang mci ra mot giai doan phat trien mdi trong quan he giQa hai nifdc. Quan he kinh te Viet Nam - Hoa Ky 15 nam qua, ttf khi Hoa Ky bo cam van chong Viet Nam ngay 03/02/1994, thiic hien cong nhan ngoai giao va binh thUdng hoa quan he (12/7/1995) den nay, da trai qua nhieu moc phat trien quan trong: Dam phan va ky ket Hiep dinh Thifdng mai song phiidng; ky ket cac hiep dinh ve thiic hien Quyen tac gia, khong ap dung Dieu luat Jackson-Vanik, eac hiep dinh OPIC, Ngan hang, Khoa hoc va Cong nghe, Det - may, Hang khong, Kinh te va Ky thuat, Nong nghiep, Viet Nam gia nhap V^TO, ap dung PNTR, Hiep dinh TIFA Nhiing biidc phat trien trong quan he kinh te giiia Viet Nam va Hoa Ky da tao nhiing dieu kien quan trong cho chiing ta nhin nhan, danh gia mot each khach quan ve moi quan he song phiidng giiia hai niidc. Trong bai viet nay, chiing toi trinh Nguy§n Thiet Sofn Vien Nghien ciiu Chdu My bay ba van de: (1) Ve quan diem quan he hdp tac Viet Nam va Hoa Ky; (2) Dii bao trien vong quan he kinh te Viet Nam - Hoa Ky; va (3) Dinh hifdng chinh sach giai phap quan he kinh te' Viet Nam - Hoa Ky, nhim gdp phan neu trien vong quan he kinh te giiia hai niidc trong 10-15 nam tdi. I. Quan diem quan he hcfp tac Trong 15 nam qua, Viet Nam da cd nhiing biidc tien quan trong trong quan he vdi Hoa Ky: tii cam van den thiet lap quan he ngoai giao, ky ket BTA, tii kim ngach xuat nhap khau khong dang kd dau nhiing nam 1990, den 15 ty USD hien nay giiia hai niidc Tuy nhien, 15-20 nam tiep theo se c6 nhiing biidc tien ngoan muc nhii vay khong, khi ma ca My va Vi§t Nam se gap nhieu thach thiic ve cai each va cau true lai nen kinh te, ve nhiing van de an ninh truyen tho'ng va phi truyen thdng, ve thien tai bao lut, dich benh Theo chiing toi, cd the neu Viet Nam cd chien liidc diing din phat trien nhanh va ben viing, va day manh hdn niia quan he tich ciic vdi so 06-2010 CHAU MY NGAY NAY Hoa Ky. Dieu nay phu thuoc vao nhan thiic, quan diem va viec thiic hanh phat trien ben viing va quan he tich cite vdi Hoa Ky cua Viet Nam. Chung toi cho ring, mudn hdp tac lau dai, c6 hieu qua va tin cay lan nhau, chiing ta can biet quan diem ciia Hoa Ky ve nhiing ldi ich va muc tieu cua Hoa Ky trong viec thiet lap quan he song phifdng vdi Viet Nam va nhiing van de dd ciia Viet Nam vdi Hoa Ky. 2. Quan diem cua Hoa Ky Theo cac tai lieu cua Hoa Ky\ chiing toi thay Hoa Ky co cac quan diem ve Icfi ich vd muc tieu cua Hoa Ky trong quan he v&i Viet Nam nhif sau: Nhiing nhan to' tao nen ldi ich ciia Hoa Ky gom: quan he thiidng mai va dau tU; cong ddng ngifdi My goc Viet tai Hoa Ky; cac di san ciia chie'n tranh Viet Nam; quan he thong qua cac the che' da phifdng (Lien Hiep quoc, APEC, ARF, Hiep dinh Doi tac Xuyen Thai Binh DUdng - TPP ); chia se quan tam ve Slf noi len manh me ciia Trung Quoc. Nhiing muc tieu cua Hoa Ky gom: cac mo'i quan he than thien phat trien hdn, difa Viet Nam hoi nhap sau hdn vao trao lifu chinh cua cac quoc gia; md ciia thi trifdng cho thifdng mai va dau tU; thiic day nhan quyen va dan chii; duy tri anh hifdng ciia Hoa Ky ci Dong Nam A. Ben canh nhiing nhan dinh tren day, con CO rat nhieu danh gia khac ve quan he Hoa Ky - Viet Nam, chang han, thang 10/2009, Ngoai trifdng Hoa Ky Hillary Clinton da tai khing dinh vdi Phd Thu tifdng Pham Gia Khiem ve quan diem va cam ket ciia Hoa Ky tang cifdng va lam sau rong them quan he vdi Viet Nam (ve an ninh, thifdng mai dau tif, nhan quyen, hdp tac nhan dao, chorig thien tai ); thang 4/2010, tai Dai hoc Ngoai thifdng Ha Noi, Thii trifdng Ngoai giao My Robert D. Hormats phat bieu y kie'n ve mot so' van de lien quan den quan he Hoa Ky - Viet Nam^, da noi, Hoa Ky cam ket tang cifdng moi quan he doi tac vdi Viet Nam, coi day la cd sei trong sii hien dien ciia Hoa Ky tai khu viic, va quan he trong khuon kho Hiep dinh Ddi tac Xuyen Thai Binh Difdng (TPP) se la mot bifdc tien tii nhien cung co' moi quan he kinh te nang dong giiia Viet Nam va Hoa Ky. Ben canh do, theo Sang kien Xuat khau Quoc gia ciia Tong thoiig Obama, Viet Nam se la mot trong cac thi trifdng ma Hoa Ky ifu tien thiic day moi quan he thifdng mai. Ong cho rang, Hoa Ky san sang va luon mong muon trd thanh do'i tac quan trong ho trd nhiing no liic tiep tuc hien dai hoa nen kinh te cua Viet Nam. Trong tifdng lai, Hoa Ky mud'n tie'p tuc phat trien va md rong moi quan he vdi Viet Nam de giiip Viet Nam tiep tuc ddng vai trd tich ciic nhii mot nen kinh te dang noi va la doi tac kinh kinh doanh co trach nhiem. Co the cho rang, quan diem ciia phia Hoa Ky la dang thiic day, hifdng tdi va cam ket phat trien hdn niia mdi quan he hdp tac tich ciic va hiiu nghi vdi Viet Nam. CHAU MY NGAY NAY SO 06-2010 2. Quan dietn cua Viet Nam Co the cho rang, nhiing quan diem ciia Nha nifdc Viet Nam ve ldi ich va muc tieu cua Viet Nam trong quan he vdi Hoa Ky'^ nhif sau: Hien nay My la nifdc phat trien nhat the gidi, co tiem liic kinh te, an ninh quan sii, chinh tri, khoa hoc cong nghe, dao tao deu diing hang dau the gidi; Viet Nam nhat quan thiic day cac moi quan he hiiu nghi tich ciic vdi Hoa Ky nhim thiic hien da dang hda, da phiidng hoa cac quan he doi ngoai tren tinh than la ban ciia tat ca cac nifdc tren the gidi, va hifdng tdi mot quan he hiiu nghi lau dai, ben viing, ton trong lan nhau, ciing co ldi, khong anh hudng den mot ben thii ba nao khac. Qua trinh bay nhiing noi dung cd ban ve quan diem cua Hoa Ky va cua Viet Nam, chiing toi cho ring, hai ben da c6 nhan thiic va quan diem hdp ly ve moi quan he song phifdng, tao cd sei phap ly md rong quan he kinh te toan dien vdi nhau mot each nang dpng, hieu qua va ben viing. Viet Nam c&n chii dong, nang dong hdn niia trong viec thie't lap va md rong cac quan he vdi Hoa Ky hien tai va trong 15 nam tdi. Y kien nhan xet cua chung toi la: vi lpi ich ciia minh, Viet Nam va My da CO quan diem hdp tac song phifdng ro rang va tich ciic, c6 kha nang dUa hai dan toe hifdng tdi mpt tifdng lai tifdi sang hdn. Co the con co nhi/ng trd nggi trong thiCc tiin quan he giifa hai niidc, nhiing do khong con, hay khong phdi la nhifng trd nggi thuoc logi chu yeu nifa. Dieu nay c6 nghia la gidi thiic tien can gat bo nhiing tieu tiet trong quan he giiia hai nifdc, de thiic hien va hifdng tdi hdp tac toan dien nhiing van de cot loi, thiic chat thuoc ldi ich cd ban ciia hai nifdc. Tren cd sd do, chiing toi neu mot so' dii bao nhif sau. II. Dvf bao trien vong quan he kinh te De mci rong quan he kinh te vdi Hoa Ky vi sii phat trien cua Viet Nam, trifdc tien chiing ta can thay difdc nen kinh te Viet Nam se phat trien nhii the nao de hdp tac vdi Hoa Ky. 1. Trien vgng phdt trien mo hinh kinh teViet Nam Theo chiing toi, Viet Nam c&n c6 noi liic viing manh, nham ket hdp va phat huy yeu to' ngoai liic co hieu qua. Muoii vay, Viet Nam can nhanh chong chuyen tii phat trien kinh te theo chieu rong sang phat trien theo chieu sau, chat liidng, hieu qua, nhanh va ben viing. Tii quan niem nhif vay, chiing toi cho rang, mo hinh phdt trien kinh te cua Viet Nam cdn phdi la mo hinh kinh te thi trifdng phdt trien ben vifng. V6i mo hinh nay, difdng nhien phat trien kinh te phai difdc dien ra trong mot moi quan he hai hoa giiia tang trifcing kinh te nhanh, hien dai, xa hoi dan chii - cong bing - van minh, moi trifdng trdng sach, vi ldi ich cua nhan dan. Dang Cdng san Viet Nam chii trifdng phat trien mot nen kinh te thi trifdng so 06-2010 CHAU MY NGAY NAY theo dinh hifdng xa hdi chii nghia, theo chiing toi, la theo nghia tren day, va chii trifdng do can difdc nhan manh hdn niia tai Dai hdi Dang lan thii XI sap tdi. Chiing toi dii bao quan he kinh te Viet- My chinh tren mo hinh phat trien kinh te do cua Viet Nam, vi neu mo hinh khac, hoac noi dung cua mo hinh khac di, viec hdp tac se khdng hieu qua. 2. Kich bdn trien vpng phdt trien quan he kinh te Viet-My Trong 15 nam tdi, trien vong quan he hdp tac kinh te Viet Nam - Hoa Ky c6 the tie'n trien theo mot so' hifdng kich ban sau: Hudng thif nhd't, trien vgng quan he kinh te giifa hai niidc cd the phdt trien rdt cao. Vi hien nay, quan he giiia hai nifdc dang c6 xu hifdng phat trien tich Clic, nhiing nhan to' can trci tie'n trinh phat trien quan he ciia hai nifdc, nhin chung, khong qua manh. Hiidng thif hai, trien vgng phdt trien quan he kinh teViet Nam - Hoa Ky se phdt trien cao, on dinh, phu hdp vdi tie'n trinh phat trien nhanh cua Viet Nam, khi nhiing nhan to' thiic day difdc hai ben duy tri va phat trien. Day la hudng phat trien cd tfnh hien thiic, khong qua lac quan, nhifng dap ifng difdc nhu cau phat trien cua Viet Nam. Ben cgnh do, ve ly thuyet, vin co the c6 mot hiidng thif ba phat trien ngoai mong muo'n trong quan he kinh te giiia hai nifdc, do la hudng trien vgng phdt trien quan he kinh te song phiicfng giifa hai nifdc se chgm, tri tre, do co nhieu bie'n dong ldn, ngUdc chieu trong quan he song phifdng, trong tifng nifdc, va ca trong bdi canh qudc te. Tren cd sei nghien ciiu va so sanh ba hifdng phat trien quan he kinh te Viet Nam - Hoa Ky, chiing toi cho rang, Viet Nam can chii ddng phat trien cac mo'i quan he hdp tac kinh te vdi Hda Ky thee kich ban thii hai. Tai sad va diia tren cd sd nad de dii bao cac kich ban nhif vay? Chiing toi diia vao viec phan tich nhiing nhan to' tac dong nhif sau: 3. Mgt so nhdn to tdc dgng tdi quan he Viet-My Dii bao trien vong phat trien quan he kinh te Viet Nam - Hoa Ky theo nhiing hudng kich ban tren deu phai diia tren nhiing .cd sd khach quan ve sii phat trien kinh te - xa hoi Viet Nam va Hoa Ky, ve thiic trang va trien vong quan he song phifdng, ve nhiing thach thiic, nhiing kha nang, tiem liic, dieu kien phat trien cua moi nifdc va boi canh qud'c te. Nhiing nhan te' nay c6 the difdc trinh bay nhif sau. a) Nhdn to've phia Viet Nam. Hien nay, chiing ta c6 mot ye'u to' rat thuan ldi cho dtf bao trien vong quan he kinh te Viet Nam - Hoa Ky, do la. Dang Cong san Viet Nam dang chuan bi tie'n hanh Dai hoi lan thii XI. Difdi anh sang cua Dai hoi Dang, Viet Nam se c6 chuan miic phat trien manh me hdn chd thap ky tdi. Chiing tdi cho ring, nhan dan Viet Nam va nhieu doi tac kinh te cua Viet Nam mdng mud'n cac Nghi quye't cua Dai hoi Dang se tao nen bifdc phat trien manh me, ben viing theo hifdng tie'p tuc cai each kinh te, md ciia (ben CHAU MY NGAY NAY SO 06-2010 trong va ben ngeai), nhim tang cifdng siic manh npi liic trong nifdc va sii dung to'i da nhan to' quan he quo'c te cho sii phat trien cua Viet Nam. Kinh te Viet Nam tif khi thiic hien Doi mdi de'n nay da phat trien thuan ldi hdn trifdc dd, nhUng vin cdn tdn dong va gap nhieu kho khan thach thiic ldn can vUdt qua. Do la nhiing van de ve phat trien ben viing, tai chinh tien te, lam phat, cai each doanh nghiep nha nifdc, khu viic kinh te tu nhan chifa difdc chii trpng diing miic va binh dang, van de lad dong va viec lam cham difdc giai quye't, trinh do ceng nghe thap cua nhieu nganh, kha nang canh tranh qudc te thap, hieu qua kinh te - xa hoi tha'p, mat can do'i nganh va dia phifdng, tham nhiing Ben canh nhan td' kinh te, nhiing nhan to' khac nhif dn dinh chinh tri - xa hoi, an ninh quoc gia, cac mo'i quan he quoc te cua Viet Nam, quan he vdi Hoa Ky, ciing nhif bdi canh quo'c te noi chung, can difdc duy tri phat trien dap ifng nhu cau phat trien cua Viet Nam trong nhiing nam tdi. De phat trien hdp tac kinh te vdi My nhif la met doi tac quan trpng bac nhat, Viet Nam can tuan thu nguyen tic phat trien vung lanh tho, phat trien ifng dung cong nghe, phat trien nganh nghe, san pham mot each nghiem ngat, khoa hoc" de tao the phat trien ddng bo, lien hoan cua toan bo nen kinh te quo'c dan mot each manh me va ben viing. Viet Nam cin chii dong thiic diy quan he xua't nhap khau triic tie'p vdi cac do'i tac My, khong thong qua trung gian. .; " ' Vdi nhiing dieu kien tren, co the dii doan, kim nggch xudt nhdp khdu giiia Viet Nam va Hoa Ky se tang cao, tdc do tang trifdng kim ngach se dat hai con so', khdang 30-45% hang nam. Ve xuat khau,Viet Nam van xuat sieu sang My, cd cau mat hang va chung loai hang hoa co nhiing thay doi so vdi trifdc day, cac mat hang co gia tri gia tang cao tang len, chung loai hang hoa pheng phii hdn trifdc; cac loai hang hda gia cdng, c6 gia tri gia tang thap giam dan ty trpng trdng xua't khau sang Hoa Ky. Hang hda Viet Nam CO kha nang canh tranh tren thi trifdng the gidi va Hea Ky, Viet Nam thay doi din hinh anh va trci thanh nifdc xuat khau hang hda difdc ifa chuong sang Hoa Ky. Hang hda nhap khau tii My tang len: Nhiing hang may moc thie't bi thuoc cong nghe nguon can thiet cho nhu clu md rpng san xuat kinh doanh dich vu tang len dang ke; hang nguyen vat lieu tang (dap iing nhu clu san xuat kinh ddanh, mpt phin ldn phuc vu gia cong xuat khau nhif nhieu nam trifdc); hang tieu dilng nhap khau tif My giam (do nhieu mat hang tieu diing von trifdc day phai nhap tif Hoa Ky, nay co the co difdc nhd phat trien san xuat cua cac cong ty Hoa Ky tai Viet Nam) Ve quan he ddu tii: Hoa Ky chii trpng diu tif vao Viet Nam vi thu difdc nhieu ldi ich da trung (kinh te, chinh tri, an ninh quoc phong, quan he qud'c te ) va gin sii hdp tac phat trien vdi Viet Nam vdi ldi ich quo'c gia SO 06-2010 CHAU MY NGAY NAY ciia My ci khu viic Dong Nam A, ciing nhif ci Chau A - Thai Binh Difdng. Do vay. My se tang cifdng dau tif trong nhieu linh viic, nganh nghe rpng khip cac dia phiidng ci Viet Nam, cac dii an diu tif se cd quy mo ldn, trinh do cong nghe cao tao da va dieu kien cho nen kinh te Viet Nam phat trien cao va dn dinh trdng 15-20 nam tdi, d6 la vi ldi ich cua My va ciing rat phii hdp ldi ich phat trien ciia Viet Nam. Nhif vay co the dif doan ve mtfc dp dau tif cua My vao Viet Nam ciing tang manh ca ve quy mo lan chat Iifdng trdng nhiing nam tdi. Miic diu tif trung binh hang nam ciia Hda Ky vao Viet Nam tang len se vdi hien nay. Teng diu tif thiic hien tich liiy lai cua Hoa Ky d Viet Nam de'n nam 2020 se dat khdang 30-35 ty USD, trung binh hang nam khoang 3 ty USD. Chifa ke kha nang thu hiit ve'n diu tif gian tie'p tif Hoa Ky se tang len trong thdi ky de'n nam 2020. Cd the ndi, theo kich ban thii hai, chiing ta co the dii doan diu tif cua My vao Viet Nam se tang len he't siic nhanh chdng, vi vay, Viet Nam cin phai tich ciic cau triic lai nen kinh te de tie'p nhan FDI ttf Hoa Ky (va mpt so' nifdc phat trien khac) mpt each co hieu qua nhat. b) Nhiing nhdn tdvephia Hoa Ky. Theo chiing toi, nhiing nhan to' ve phia Hoa Ky bao gom: nhiing nhan to kinh te', chinh tri, an ninh, xa hpi, ben trong nifdc My va lien quan de'n quan he quo'c te, trong d6 c6 Viet Nam. Ve kinh te, co the dii doan, sau khi vifdt qua khung hoang tai chinh - kinh te hien nay, nen kinh te Hoa Ky se phat trien theo mpt trong cac hif6ng sau day: 1) De bao ve ldi ich sorig con, duy tri dia vi sieu cifdng so' mpt the gidi. My cin phai coi phat trien kinh te la nhiem vu so' 1 va do do, can tap trung toan bp siic manh quoc gia de khoi phuc va phat trien kinh te mpt each nhanh nhat va manh nhat. My se phai cau triic lai nen kinh te, phat huy nhiing the manh vo'n cd ciia cac nganh dting diu the gidi ciia My, to chtfc lai he tho'ng ngan hang tai chinh, de khong the lap lai nhiing sai lam dien ra trong nhiing nam qua, nang cao trinh do cong nghe (chat xam) ciia cac nganh san xuat, dieh vu nhim c6 kha nang canh tranh cao hdn tren thi triidng quoc te va ngay tren thi trifdng trong nifdc. Trong quan he kinh te quoc te, My se tiep tuc chii trpng ky ke't FTA vcli cac nifdc de triic tie'p nang cao hieu qua kinh te - xa hpi ciia nifdc My, va nhif vay, viec diu tif va phat trien trao doi thifdng mai se difdc thiic day manh qua difdng song phifdng, hdn la da phifdng. Ddng thdi, My cung se tien tdi ky ket FTA vdi khu viic Nam My va khu viic chau A - Thai Binh Difdng (nen tang la APEC), phat trien cac del tac xuyen Thai Binh Difdng, nhim tao ra moi trifdng kinh te va pham vi anh hucing kinh te thuan ldi chd Hoa Ky. 2) Vdi nhiing muc dfch nhif tren, nhifng Hoa Ky khong thiic hien difdc nhiing mong muon cau triic lai nen CHAU MY NGAY NAY SO 06-2010 kinh te' va to chiic lai cac moi quan he kinh te quo'c te cua minh (co the de nhieu nguyen nhan ma My kheng tap trung dUdc sifc manh quoc gia). Neu nhif vay, nen kinh te ciia Hoa Ky lai e6 the quay trd lai gap nhiing khd khan phiic tap nhu vtfa qua. Va quan he kinh te Viet Nam - Hoa Ky co the rdi vao kich ban thii ba khong mong mud'n. Tuy nhien, dieu nay khe co the xay ra: Cac gdi kich clu cua Chfnh phii Hoa Ky da lam cho khu viic san xua't lay lai din kha nang tang trifdng, khu viic tai chinh ciing da it nhieu difdc "ciiu vdt" va viia difdc hai Vien cua Quoc hpi My difa ra dii thao cai each he tho'ng tai chinh, "difa pho' Wall vao khudn kho"; hdn niia, nen kinh te tif ban chii nghia von c6 kha nang tii dieu chinh nhat dinh, cac chu ky khung hoang it keo dai hdn (kha nang khic phuc cad hdn, nhanh hdn). Ddng thdi, cac nifdc ldn, cac nhdm nifdc, nhif G-20 deu co nhiing sii lien ke't de thao gd khd khan vifdt qua khiing hoang, de phat trien chd nen kinh te nifdc minh va cho kinh te the gidi. Trong dieu kien do, c6 the thay trifdc, nen kinh te Hoa Ky se lay lai da phat trien trong thdi gian tdi, nhifng phat trien manh ye'u nhif the nae la van de cin xem xet. f ' •' • '' Ve mat chinh tri vd an ninh, co the thay, vdi xu, the phat trien ciia Hoa Ky va chinh sach do'i ngoai ciia Chinh quyen Obama hien nay, Hoa Ky se khong thiic sii thiic hien chinh sach doi ngoai hie'u chie'n, gay han vdi cac nifdc khac tren the gidi trong thdi gian trifdc mit. Hda Ky se gitt difdc sii on dinh xa hpi trong nUdc, thi hanh chinh sach quan he quo'c te mem deo, CO tinh xay diing. Nhif vay, c6 the cho ring, the gidi trong thap ky tdi c6 the ft CO nguyen nhan dan de'n xung dot bao liic, khung bo', chie'n tranh huy diet, chie'n tranh hat nhan; the gidi se tap trung vao phat trien kinh te, bao dam on dinh chinh tri, giai quye't cac van de xa hpi, an sinh My va cac nifdc ldn se duy tri tinh hinh the gidi nhif vay, ft nhat la trong mpt thap ky trifdc mit (chi co nhif vay, My, Trung Quoc va nhieu nifdc khac mdi co the deu CO ldi trifdc nhiing thach thifc cd the se de'n trong tifdng lai). Nhif vay, trien vpng phat trien tich Clic cho Hoa Ky phai la, tap trung mpt thdi gian dai chd nhiem vu se' 1 cua quo'c gia la on dinh va phat trien manh me nen kinh te, nhim lay lai siic manh va tang cifdng thiic liic diing diu the gidi; he tho'ng chinh tri vdi hai dang Cpng hda va Dan chu va cac nhdm ldi ich tap trung vao tang cifdng ldi ich va siic manh kinh te, chinh tri, an ninh que'c phdng My; co chien lifdc an ninh va chfnh sach doi ngoai bao dam cho kinh te, chinh tri, an ninh quo'c phdng CO mdi trifdng tich ciic de phat trien, tang cifdng hdp tac da dang vdi cac nifdc My Latinh, chau Au, Ddng Nam A, Nam A, cd liia chpn vdi cac doi tac chie'n lifdc ci Dong Bac A, nham duy tri sii on dinh cua cac khu viic nay vi ldi fch phat trien cua My, khong xung dot ldi ich cua My, khdng chu trifdng dd'i dau trdng quan he vdi nhiing liic Iifdng the che khac; tat ca nhim muc tieu trong mpt thdi gian nha't dinh tang 10 SO 06-2010 CHAU MY NGAY NAY cifdng dUdc siic manh kinh te, chinh tri, an ninh quoc phong ciia My. c) Nhdn to' lien quan de'n boi cdnh quo'c te. Boi canh quo'c te phu thupe phan ldn vao cac nhan to' quan he quo'c te trong viec phan chia ldi ich kinh te, chinh tri, an ninh quo'c te va cac khu viic, cac nifdc ldn. The gidi, neu c6 the ndi, sau Chien tranh Lanh, vtfa trai qua cupe khiing hoang ldn nha't ttf Dai khung hoang 1929-1933, ciing nhif vtfa trai qua thdi ky cang thang vdi chinh sach chd'ng khiing bo' cua ciiu Tdng thdhg My G. Bush; dong thdi the gidi ciing chifng kie'n sii phat trien manh me cua cac nifdc Trung Quec, Brazil, Nga, An Dp, cua sii md rpng chau Au Cac nifdc Trung Quo'c, Brazil, Nga, An Dp deu muon CO moi trifdng quo'c te on dinh de tie'p tuc phat trien hdn niia, nhim vifdn len hdn niia; nhiing nifdc va khu viic My, Nhat Ban, Chau Au deu ciing mue'n co moi trifdng nhii vay de thoat khoi khiing hoang, phuc hoi va phat trien dat nifdc. Cac nUdc nho hdn khdng the khong tan dung moi trifdng nay de phat trien. Viet Nam lai cang cin tan dung moi trUdng nay de phat trien. Viet Nam cin phat huy te'i da npi liic, tan dung ifu the la thanh vien ASEAN, APEC, WTO de md rpng quan he kinh te vdi Hoa Ky va cac nifdc ldn khac. C6 the ket luan ring, vdi kich ban thif hai trien vpng hdp tac kinh te' vdi Hoa Ky difdc neu tren, cac nhan to' phat trien cua Viet Nam difdc danh gia la kha thuan ldi. Viet Nam cin thay va tan dung dUdc nhan to' Hoa Ky va nhan to' boi canh quoc te thuan ldi cho phat trien trong 15-20 nam tdi. III. Dinh hifdng Chinh sach giai phap quan he kinh te Phat trien hdp tac kinh te vdi Hoa Ky theo kich ban thif hai, 15-20 nam tdi, mo'i quan he Viet - My se difa lai nhiing ldi fch gi cho hai nifdc, nhat la cho Viet Nam, se phu thupe rat nhieu vao nhiing dieu chinh mdi trong chinh sach quan he vdi Hoa Ky cua Viet Nam. Chiing toi cho ring, Viet Nam cin CO hai hifdng dieu chinh chfnh sach quan trpng: 1/ Chinh sach giai phap quan he Viet Nam - Hoa Ky, va 2/ Chinh sach giai phap hoan thien ben trong Viet Nam de tang cifdng hdp tac kinh te co hieu qua cao vdi Hoa Ky. Ca hai hifdng nay thupe tdng the chinh sach, chie'n lifdc phat trien kinh te - xa hei cua Viet Nam treng dai ban. Trong phan nay, chiing toi chi chii yeu trinh bay hifdng chinh sach thtf nhat va khong trinh bay cac chfnh sach vi mo, nhif chfnh sach thu hiit diu tu, chfnh sach thifdng mai 1. Dinh hudng chung quan he vdi Hoa Ky. Co the cho rang, chinh sach quan he Viet - My gan day rat ccii md, dieu do da difdc the hien treng Hpi dam giiia Tong thong G. Bush vdi Chii tich Nguyen Minh Triet tai Washington D.C, ngay 22/6/2007. Tong thong G.Bush cho ring "Chiing toi muo'n co quan he to't vdi Viet Nam". Dap lai, Chu tich nifclc Nguyin Minh Triet da noi: "Hai dan toe Viet - My deu muo'n CHAU MY NGAY NAY SO 06-2010 11 hoa binh, doan ke't, va hiiu nghi phai cung nim tay nhau di tdi tifdng lai" v.i "Cach tie'p can cua chiing toi la hai ben se tie'p tuc tang cifdng do'i thoai, trao ddi de tang cifdng sii hieu bie't lin nhau. Chiing toi deu rat khong muon nhiing van de cdn khac biet gay tac dpng anh hifdng khong tot de'n mo'i quan he giiia hai dan tpc". Tdng tho'ng Bush cho ring, da co cupe thao luan "thang thin va ndng am" vdi Chu tich Nguyin Minh Triet. Nhif vay, van de quan trgng ddu tien cho viec md rpng quan he kinh te toan dien mpt each nang dpng, hieu qua va ben viing giiia Viet Nam va Hoa Ky phai la viec thie't lap quan he hiiu nghi, hieu bie't va tin cay lan nhau giiia hai nifdc. Vdn de quan trgng thii hai la quan he Viet - My cin difdc thiic hien tren tat ca cac kenh quan he va cac linh viic, cac dien dan, nhif ta't ca cac nifdc than thien tren the gidi quan he vdi nhau, bao gdm: 1) Cac kenh quan he gap gd cap cao giiia cac nha lanh dao hai nifdc (Chinh phii, Quoc hpi va nhanh Tif phap), cac nhom ldi ich, cac doanh nghiep, gidi truyen thong, dai hpc, quan he giao luu nhan dan ; 2) Cac mo'i quan he trong cac linh viic ngoai giao, kinh te, dao tao giao due, van hda xa hpi, an ninh chinh tri quan sii, khoa hpc cong nghe moi trifdng, chdng khiing bd ; 3) Thong qua cac dien dan cua Lien Hiep qudc, cac td chdc da phifdng nhu APEC, ASEAN, quan he vdi cac nifdc 16n, tang cUdng sii dn dinh d khu viic Ddng Nam A va chau A - Thai Binh Dudng Vd'n de thti ba: ddi mdi nhan thiic vl moi quan he Viet - My. Vi mat nhdn thiic: Nhiing tac dpng cua chfnh sach doi ngoai cua My va moi quan he My - Viet co ldi hay c6 hai, ft hay nhieu de'n Viet Nam va moi quan he My - Viet phu thuoc rat nhieu vao nhan thtfc ciia ca hai ben, nhat la cua Viet Nam. Neu Viet Nam nhan thifc diing va co chfnh sach hdp ly doi vdi chfnh sach ddi ngoai ciia My, thi Viet Nam co the thu difdc nhieu ldi ich hdn cho sii- phat trien eua dat niidc. Niidc My hien nay dang dp dung mgt nhdn thiic mdi theng qua qua Chien lifdc An ninh qudc gia® mdi (National Security Strategy - May 2010), My dang thay ddi trong each tie'p can va tfng xii trong quan he quoc te, sii dung cac bien phap doi thoai, ling nghe, da phifdng, hdp tac giam cang thang, tang cifdng long tin vdi cac nifdc va cac khu viic Hdn 15 ndm qua Viet Nam dd ddn dp dung nhifng nhdn thifc mdi de thie't lap vd phdt trien cdc quan he vdi My. Viet Nam che ring, cai thien quan he vdi My la met trong nhiing dieu kien he't siic quan trpng de phat trien kinh te - xa hpi va nang cao vi the, vai tro ciia minh tren triidng quoc te. Mac du My dang gap nhieu khd khan, nhiing My van la ciidng qud'c kinh te se" mpt the gidi trong nhieu thap ky niia, va My la ddi tac rat quan trpng cua Viet Nam. 2. Ve nhiirng chu tritdng, chinh sdch cua Viet Nam trong quan he vdi My 12 SO 06-2010 CHAU MY NGAY NAY 1) ChU triidng, chinh sdch cua Ddng vd Nhd niidc Viet Nam la rat ro rang ve quan he vdi Hoa Ky. Trong budi tie'p Bp trifdng Bp Thifdng mai Hoa Ky Carlos M. Gutierrez cuoi nam 2009, Thu tifdng Chfnh phii Nguyen Tan Diing da noi: 'Viet Nam mong muon Hoa Ky trd thanh ban hang so' mpt, nha diu tif ldn nhat tai Viet Nam". 2) Theo chiing toi, cin cu the boa hdn nda chu trifdng, chinh sach cua Viet Nam treng quan he vdi Hoa Ky, chiing phai trci thanh chfnh tho'ng va c6 he tho'ng. Chiing toi neu mpt so' y kien sau: (1) Ve quan diem, cin coi hdp tac vdi My la nhan to' quan trpng bac nha't, cd ban trong phat trien kinh te - xa hpi ciia Viet Nam, (2) Ve chinh sach, trong quan he vdi My, phai coi My la do'i tac chie'n lUdc quan trpng bac nhat cua Viet Nam; nhanh chong ky ket FTA vdi My; cac quan he khac cin dupc nang tim tifdng xifng, hdp ly de bao ve ldi ich phat trien cua Viet Nam (cac quan he an ninh quan sii, chinh tri, ); cin hpc tap kinh nghiem ciia cac nifdc trong quan he vdi My (vf du Trung Quo'c, Dong Nam A, Dong Bic A), thiic hi§n nguyen tic cac ben thif ba thay khong bi anh hifdng de'n ldi ich khi Viet Nam day manh va md rpng quan he chie'n lifdc vdi My. Nhiing y kie'n nay difdc cu the hdn nhif sau: Ve quan diem hgp tdc kinh te: Viet Nam cin chu dpng coi quan he vdi Hoa Ky nhif la mpt quan he quan trpng bac nha't trong quan he kinh te qudc te, va la quan he quan trpng bac nha't, cd ban trong phat trien kinh te - xa hpi cua Viet Nam, ddng thdi ciing coi trpng cac mo'i quan he vdi cae ben thtf ba khac. Vi thiic te hien nay My da va se chie'm ty trpng ldn bac nhat trong cdc yeu td ddu vdo cua nen kinh te Viet Nam: Vo'n (vo'n FDI difng hang diu d Viet Nam, vo'n diu tif gian tie'p se rat ldn); Cong nghe, may mdc thie't bi, bi quye't quan ly, dao tao tri thtfc va cdc yeu td ddu ra: thi trifdng tieu thu hang hda dtfng hang diu ciia Viet Nam. , -\ : Vi dinh hiidng chinh sdch: Vdi quan diem tren, cin nang tim quan he, nhif da difdc khang dinh qua cac eupc gap thifdng dfnh Viet - My, len hdp tac toan dien, nhim tang cifdng ldi ich va nang cad vi the cua Viet Nam. Cin coi md rpng quan he toan dien vdi My la' viec binh thifdng (nhieu nifdc tren the gidi dang ce quan he tdan dien vdi My cao hdn Viet Nam) va My phai la ddi tac chie'n lifdc quan trpng bac nhat cua Viet Nam. Ve cdc gidi phdp quan he vdi Hoa Ky: chiing toi cho ring, trong quan he vdi Hoa Ky, Viet Nam cin co: a) Chinh sdch ngogi giao: thdn thien vd da dgng, ttf cho co quan he thu dich trong chien tranh (giiia nhan dan Viet Nam vdi nhiing liic Iifdng ehu ehien treng chfnh quyen va xa hpi My, khong phai vdi nhan dan My), chuyen sang quan he doi tac, cung co ldi. b) Chinh sdch hdp tdc: todn dien. Trong Unh viic kinh te: nhanh chdng tien tdi ky ke't FTA vdi My, diy manh xua't nhap khau, diu tu, chuyen giao cong nghe mdi, xanh sach. Vi an ninh qudn sii, chinh tri [...]... Thtit trifdng Ngoai giao Hoa Ky phu trach cac van de Kinh te, nang lUdng, nong nghiep tai Dai hoc Ngoai thUdng Ha Noi, 12/4/2010, Website DSQ Hoa Ky tai Viet Nam 3) Xem them "Quan he hdp tac kinh te Viet Nam - Hoa Ky" - De tai khoa hoc cap Nha nu6c, Ma so KX.Ol.03/0 6-1 0 4) Xem them "Quan he hdp tac kinh te Viet Nam - Hoa Ky" - De tai khoa hoc cap Nha nif6c, Ma so KX.01.03/0 6-1 0, phan noi ve cac kich... fch ciia ben thii ba trong dieu kien toan clu hoa va hpi nhap quo'c te hien nay Cd the cho ring, quan diem, chinh sdch, gidi phdp quan he vdi Hoa Ky cdn xde dinh tren cd sd phdt trien bien chiing ciia mdi quan he de thuc ddy quan he Viet - My phdt trien vi ldi ich cua ddn tgc Viet Nam vd ldi ich cita mdi quan he Viet - My • Chu thich: 1) Xem: - "U.S.-Vietnam Economic and Trade Relations: Issues for... the gidi cd quan he vdi My va cd rat nhieu kinh nghiem cin nghien ciiu hpc tap, nhif Trung Quo'c, Nhat Ban, Han Qudc, Thai Lan, Philippines cd rat nhieu quan he chat che vdi My Neu cd nghien ciiu, se thay quan he cua Viet Nam vdi My chifa difdc bao nhieu so vdi nhiing nifdc nay, ne'u Viet Nam md rpng hdn niia quan he vdi My, ciing chifa the b i n g cae nifdc tren Vay ro rang, quan he Viet - My trong... NAY SO 0 6-2 010 can dupc nang t i m tifdng xtfng, hdp ly de bao ve ldi fch phat trien ciia Viet Nam Ve cdc linh viic khdc: cdn diidc md rgng: hdp tac trong bao ve moi trifdng, phat trien nang Iifdng sach va phat trien ben viing, xda doi giam ngheo, dao tao va giao due, y te, van hoa, the due the thao, du lich, hdp tac vdi ngUdi Viet d My Vi viec hgc tap kinh nghiem cila cdc nifdc khdc trong quan he... Ma so KX.Ol.03/0 6-1 0 4) Xem them "Quan he hdp tac kinh te Viet Nam - Hoa Ky" - De tai khoa hoc cap Nha nif6c, Ma so KX.01.03/0 6-1 0, phan noi ve cac kich ban dii bao trien vong phat trien quan he kinh te Viet Nam - Hoa ky 5) Xem US National Security Strategy, May 2010, White House, Washington DC, ... Economic and Trade Relations: Issues for the 111"' Congress", Michael F Martin, Analyst in Asian Trade and Finance, Congressional Research Service 7-5 700, R 40755, October 29, 2009 CRS Report for Congress (Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress) - "U.S.-Vietnam Relations in 2009: Current Issues and Implications for U.S Policy", Mark E Manyin, Specialist on Asian Affairs, Congressional Research Service... chifa the b i n g cae nifdc tren Vay ro rang, quan he Viet - My trong thap ky tdi, du phat trien manh me hdn niia, ciing khong the anh hifdng nhieu hdn den cac nifdc tren so vdi quan he cua cac nifdc do vdi My anh hifdng den Viet Nam, ne'u ndi den nhiing anh hifdng tieu ciic c) Nguyen tdc hdp tdc: Trong hdp tac toan dien cin ton trpng nhiing nguyen tic tin cay l i n nhau, khong ne tranh, thing t h i n . Ve quan diem quan he hdp tac Viet Nam va Hoa Ky; (2) Dii bao trien vong quan he kinh te Viet Nam - Hoa Ky; va (3) Dinh hifdng chinh sach giai phap quan he kinh te' Viet Nam - Hoa. DSQ Hoa Ky tai Viet Nam. 3) Xem them " ;Quan he hdp tac kinh te Viet Nam - Hoa Ky" - De tai khoa hoc cap Nha nu6c, Ma so KX.Ol.03/0 6-1 0. 4) Xem them " ;Quan he hdp tac kinh. trien vong quan he kinh te giiia hai niidc trong 1 0-1 5 nam tdi. I. Quan diem quan he hcfp tac Trong 15 nam qua, Viet Nam da cd nhiing biidc tien quan trong trong quan he vdi Hoa Ky: tii