Ian Pownall Effective Management Decision Making An Introduction Download free books at Download free eBooks at bookboon.com 2 Ian Pownall Efective Management Decision Making An Introduction Download free eBooks at bookboon.com 3 Efective Management Decision Making: An Introduction © 2012 Ian Pownall & bookboon.com ISBN 978-87-403-0120-5 Download free eBooks at bookboon.com Click on the ad to read more Efective Management Decision Making 4 Contents Contents Introduction 9 Chapter 1 10 1.1 Eective Management Decision Making: Introduction 10 1.2 e Duality of Decision Making? 10 1.3 Types of Business and Management Decisions 14 1.4 Who is involved in Decision Making?- e Decision Body 17 1.5 e three phased model 26 1.6 Summary 27 1.7 Key terms and glossary 27 Chapter 2 29 2.1 Developing rational models with qualitative methods and analysis: Data forecasting 29 2.2 Simple Averaging Forecasting 30 2.3 Moving Averages 32 2.4 Exponential Smoothing Data Forecasting 35 2.5 Errors, accuracy and condence 41 2.6 Causal forecasting (explanatory forecasting) 43 2.7 Non-linear Forecasting and multiple regression– Curve tting 60 www.sylvania.com We do not reinvent the wheel we reinvent light. Fascinating lighting offers an infinite spectrum of possibilities: Innovative technologies and new markets provide both opportunities and challenges. An environment in which your expertise is in high demand. Enjoy the supportive working atmosphere within our global group and benefit from international career paths. Implement sustainable ideas in close cooperation with other specialists and contribute to influencing our future. Come and join us in reinventing light every day. Light is OSRAM Download free eBooks at bookboon.com Click on the ad to read more Efective Management Decision Making 5 Contents 2.8 Multiple regression and partial regression analysis 71 2.9 Complete worked non linear forecasting example with seasonality 73 2.10 Summary 83 2.11 Key Terms and glossary 83 Chapter 3 100 3.1 Developing rational models with quantitative methods and analysis: probabilities 100 3.2 e Decision tree – a map of the solution set 102 3.3 Decision Analysis 105 3.4 More on probabilities: Expected Monetary Values (EMVs) 112 3.5 Revising problem information – Bayes eorem 117 3.6 e Value of Sample and Perfect Information 122 3.7 Summary 125 3.8 Key Terms and glossary 126 3.9 Chapter closing question 127 Chapter 4 129 4.1 Developing rational models with quantitative methods and analysis: Distribution Functions and Queuing eory 129 4.2 e mathematical function: discrete and continuous variables 129 4.3 e discrete distribution – the binomial function 132 4.4 Extending binomial number sequences 137 360° thinking . © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. Discover the truth at www.deloitte.ca/careers