The Future Security Environment in the Middle East Conflict, Stability, and Political Change phần 10 potx

314 The Future Security Environment in the Middle East • Sustained pressure on regional aggressors. Several regional states have demonstrated that they will respond to concerted in- ternational pressure. Iran and Libya, for example, have both re- duced their support of terrorism to cultivate the goodwill of Eu- ropean states. If Russia and China became more favorable to U.S. views, regional states would have additional disincentives to proliferate or attack their neighbors. • Reduced military effectiveness of aggressors. Even if area regimes do not respond to Russian and Chinese political pres- sure, decreased military assistance will reduce the potency of their conventional and WMD arsenals. • Greater potential for progress on an Arab-Israeli ceasefire or set- tlement. Although the settlement of the Arab-Israeli dispute de- pends largely on the immediate players involved, a concerted in- ternational effort might be able to reduce regional tensions and encourage all sides to sit at the negotiating table. • Improved anti-terrorism cooperation. Russia and China have considerable influence with governments in the region and strong ties to many local factions, making them important part- ners in the effort to prevent future terrorist attacks against the United States. The Nature of Regime Change Individual leaders have shaped their countries’ policies to a remark- able degree in the past, influencing the choice of allies, economic policies, and their willingness to cooperate with the United States, among other factors. Leaders have often done so in the face of popu- laces that are opposed to their policies. In Egypt and Saudi Arabia in particular, the popular resentment of the United States may, in the future, lead a different leader or regime to curtail ties to Washington to gain or bolster public support for the government. Even new leaders who are not hostile pose risks. Untested leaders may overreact during a crisis, enabling problems to spin out of con- trol. Inaction is also a risk. Many Middle East countries face a daunt- ing array of social and economic problems. These cannot be put off indefinitely, but the risks of dramatic reform may persuade many leaders to delay change until it is too late. Conclusions 315 The outlook is not all bleak. Many of the hostile and despotic regimes in the Middle East are under siege or could face dramatic change. Iran and Libya are two of the countries that could see a new leadership, and dramatically new policies, in the coming decade. In- deed, in both countries it is possible that a new leadership could emerge that would completely reorient the country’s foreign policy in general and its relationship with the United States. FINAL WORDS Although the Middle East will remain a turbulent region, the nature of the danger has changed dramatically. Traditional concerns such as a conventional military attack from an aggressive state remain plausible, but they are of far less importance than new challenges such as WMD and terrorism. U.S. policy must also recognize that the lack of democratic institutions and the individual-dependent nature of many regimes may lead to sudden and profound changes in the region’s politics. Not only has the region changed, but so too has the American role. The United States is perhaps more influential in the Middle East than at any other time in its history. U.S. involvement in postwar Iraq and in the ongoing struggle against terrorism requires close cooperative relationships with many countries in the region. Yet threats to the United States seem likely to continue as long as the United States is perceived as upholding the regional status quo. Efforts to recon- struct Iraq and mediate the Arab-Israeli conflict therefore take on particular importance. Because of this turbulence, U.S. policy must be flexible and robust. Years of relying largely on military power to achieve interests may have to give way to a wider array of tools, ranging from economic re- structuring to counterterrorism training to encouraging the rule of law. Unless it pursues a multidimensional and coordinated policy approach, the United States will be confined to reacting to crises rather than preventing and managing them. 317 BIBLIOGRAPHY Ahrari, M. 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