Edited by Nora Bensahel and Daniel L. Byman Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited R Project AIR FORCE The Future Security Environment in the Middle East Conflict, Stability, and Political Change The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R ® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2004 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2004 by the RAND Corporation 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: order@rand.org Cover design by Stephen Bloodsworth The research reported here was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract F49642-01-C-0003. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Bensahel, Nora, 1971- The future security environment in the Middle East : conflict, stability, and political change / Nora Bensahel, Daniel L. Byman. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. “MR-1640.” ISBN 0-8330-3290-9 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Middle East—Strategic aspects. 2. United States—Military policy. I. Byman, Daniel, 1967– II.Title. UA832.B45 2003 355' 033056—dc22 2003020980 iii PREFACE This collection of papers examines emerging security trends that will shape the Persian Gulf in the coming years. The authors address a number of topics that will affect regional security, including prospects for economic and political reform, civil-military relations, regime change, energy security, the spread of new information tech- nologies, and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. The volume aims to help policymakers and the public develop a better understanding of the underlying issues at work in a region at the forefront of concern today. Readers of this report may also be interested in a related publication: Daniel Byman and John R. Wise, The Persian Gulf in the Coming Decade: Trends, Threats, and Opportunities, RAND Corporation, MR- 1528-AF, 2002. This volume examines likely challenges to U.S. interests in the Persian Gulf region in the next decade, with principal focus on the conventional military strength of Iran and Iraq, the potential for subversion, and the social and economic weaknesses of the regional states. (Research for MR-1528-AF was completed before the September 11, 2001, attacks.) The research reported here was sponsored by the Director of Operational Plans, Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Air and Space Operations (HQ USAF/XOX), and conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE. Comments are welcomed and may be addressed to the acting Program Director, Alan Vick. iv The Future Security Environment in the Middle East RAND PROJECT AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with in- dependent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Aerospace Force Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our web site at http://www.rand.org/paf. v CONTENTS Preface iii Tables xi Summary xiii Acknowledgments xix Chapter One INTRODUCTION Nora Bensahel and Daniel L. Byman 1 U.S. Interests in the Middle East 2 Countering Terrorism 2 Countering WMD Proliferation 3 Maintaining Stable Oil Supplies and Prices 3 Ensuring the Stability of Friendly Regimes 4 Ensuring Israel’s Security 4 Promoting Democracy and Human Rights 5 Potential Threats to U.S. Interests 7 A Changing Region 9 The Shadows of September 11 and the War Against Iraq 10 Report Objectives and Structure 11 Chapter Two POLITICAL REFORM IN THE MIDDLE EAST Nora Bensahel 15 U.S. Interests in Middle Eastern Political Reform 17 Pressures for Political Reform in the Middle East 20 Economic Challenges 20 Demographic Trends 21 vi The Future Security Environment in the Middle East Accountability and Corruption 23 Possible Regime Responses 24 Regional Trends 25 Democratization: Legislatures 25 Democratization: Consultative Councils 27 Liberalization: Political Parties 28 Liberalization: Civic Organizations 29 Liberalization: Freedom of the Press 32 Liberalization: The Judiciary and the Rule of Law 33 Survey of Key States 34 Egypt 35 Iran 39 Jordan 43 Kuwait 46 Saudi Arabia 48 Impact on U.S. Security Interests 52 Effect on Regional Stability 52 Sensitivity to U.S. Ties 55 Conclusion 55 Chapter Three ECONOMIC REFORM IN THE MIDDLE EAST: THE CHALLENGE TO GOVERNANCE Alan Richards 57 The Key Economic Challenges Facing the Region 61 Restoring Economic Growth 61 Restraining Population Expansion 64 Providing Jobs 66 Alleviating Poverty 68 The Jungle of Cities 72 Saving Water 74 Obtaining Food 75 Attracting Money for Investment 76 Egypt 78 The Background of Reform 79 The Promise of Reform 81 The Performance 82 The Political Economy of “Creeping Cronyism” 86 Jordan 89 Economic Reform in Jordan 95 Crafting Credible Reforms 96 Contents vii Iran 99 Saudi Arabia 107 The Development of a State-Centered Political Economy 110 Pressures for Reform 111 Further Obstacles to the Reform Process 114 Syria 117 Riding the Roller Coaster of Rents 119 The Limits of Reform 122 Implications 124 Relatively Advanced Countries 124 Low-Income Countries 126 Oil-Rich Countries 126 Conclusion 128 Chapter Four CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST Risa Brooks 129 From Coups to Stability 130 The Ingredients of Political Control 132 Social Support 132 Stacking the Deck 133 Servicing the Military Constituency 134 Internal Security Agencies 135 Dual Militaries 136 Size 138 Institutional Tactics 138 Leader Incentives 139 Political Control and Military Effectiveness 141 Command and Control 141 Leadership 144 Intelligence and Information 146 Potential Offsets to Politicization 147 Centralized Command Structures 148 Technology 148 Specialization and the Internal/External Division of Labor 150 International Factors 152 The Unconventional Alternative 152 Potential Challenges to Civil-Military Relations 153 Implications for the United States 159 viii The Future Security Environment in the Middle East Chapter Five THE IMPLICATIONS OF LEADERSHIP CHANGE IN THE ARAB WORLD Daniel L. Byman 163 Parameters of Regime Change 166 Categories of Regime Change 167 Leadership Change in Saudi Arabia 168 Change Within the Al Saud 169 Constants in Saudi Society 173 Saudi Islamists 174 Geopolitical Constants 176 Implications 176 Leadership Change in Syria 177 Bashar Versus Hafez 178 A Shift from Bashar to Other Domestic Actors 181 Geopolitical Constants 183 Implications 184 Leadership Change in Egypt 185 Change Within the Egyptian Elite 185 Geopolitical and Societal Constants 187 The Islamist Alternative 188 Implications 190 Preparing for Regime Change 192 Potential Risks and Opportunities 192 Recommendations 193 Chapter Six ENERGY AND MIDDLE EASTERN SECURITY: NEW DIMENSIONS AND STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS Ian O. Lesser 197 World Energy Trends and the Energy Security Debate 200 The Outlook for Oil Supply and Price 202 The Aftermath of September 11 and the War in Iraq 204 Changing Patterns of Dependence 205 Emerging Issues 208 The Rise of Gas 208 New Lines of Communication for Oil 213 “Rogue” (or Isolated) States, Sanctions, and Energy Supply 214 Arms and Oil 216 Contents ix Energy Prices, Regime Stability, and Military Potential 218 Energy Denial as an Asymmetric Strategy 219 Transatlantic and Asian Perspectives 222 Conclusions and Policy Implications 223 Chapter Seven THE INFORMATION REVOLUTION AND THE MIDDLE EAST Jon B. Alterman 227 A Richer Information Environment 228 Newspapers 228 Television 231 A Wide Spectrum of Content 235 The Internet 236 The Rise of Mid-Technology 238 Greater Information Diversity and Access 239 Limited Assimilation of High-Technology 240 Implications 243 New Mass Politics 243 Challenges for Regional Governments 245 Implications for the United States 247 Chapter Eight WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION IN THE MIDDLE EAST: PROLIFERATION DYNAMICS AND STRATEGIC CONSEQUENCES Ian O. Lesser 253 Assessing Recent Trends 257 Algeria 259 Libya 259 Egypt 261 Israel 262 Syria 263 Iran 264 Saudi Arabia 265 Transforming Developments and Synergies 265 Proliferation Motives and Internal Dynamics 268 The Search for Weight and Prestige 268 Countering Western Superiority 271 x The Future Security Environment in the Middle East Indigenous Development and International Trade 273 Institutional and Domestic Factors 275 Regional Dynamics 277 Geography Matters 277 North-South Frictions and Regional Balances 279 The Arab-Israeli Conflict 281 Gulf Security 283 North Africa 284 Extraregional Dynamics 285 The Russian Factor 286 China and North Korea 288 India, Pakistan, and Proliferation Alliances 289 Implications for European Security 291 A World of Defenses: Implications for the Middle East 293 Conclusions and Policy Implications 296 Chapter Nine CONCLUSIONS Nora Bensahel, Daniel L. Byman, and Negeen Pegahi 299 Tensions Affecting U.S. Foreign Policy 299 Stability Versus Political Reform 300 Regimes Versus Populations 301 Emerging Challenges 303 Political Challenges 303 Military Challenges 305 Key Uncertainties 307 The Price of Oil 307 The Future of Iraq 309 The Arab-Israeli Conflict 310 The Policies of Russia and China 312 The Nature of Regime Change 314 Final Words 315 Bibliography 317 [...]... interests U.S INTERESTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST The United States has many vital and enduring interests in the Middle East 1 Six important U.S interests include countering terrorism, countering WMD proliferation, maintaining stable oil supplies and prices, ensuring the stability of friendly regimes, ensuring Israel’s security, and promoting democracy and human rights Countering Terrorism After the devastating September... Press, 19 97 Introduction 11 THE SHADOWS OF SEPTEMBER 11 AND THE WAR AGAINST IRAQ The September 11 , 20 01, terrorist attacks and the 2003 war against Iraq are profoundly affecting the Middle East in general and U.S policy in the region in particular Although the ramifications of these events are still being felt, several changes are already evident • A reprioritization of U.S interests Terrorism and WMD... (19 83) Iranian-backed unrest at the hajj Iranian support for Hamas and the Palestine Islamic Jihad Internal Unrest Radical seizure of the Grand Mosque in Mecca (19 79) Shi’a riots in Bahrain, Kuwait, and the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia (19 79 19 81) The intifada (19 87 19 90) Radical attacks on U.S forces in Saudi Arabia (19 95) Shi’a unrest in Bahrain (19 94 19 96) The “al Aqsa intifada” (2000–present) Al... individual states xiii xiv The Future Security Environment in the Middle East POLITICAL INSTABILITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST COULD HAVE SERIOUS CONSEQUENCES FOR THE UNITED STATES Since the terrorist attacks of September 11 , 20 01, the Middle East has played a more prominent role in U.S policy than ever before The United States relies on Middle Eastern partners such as Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, and. .. occupied several islands claimed by the UAE Iraq invaded Kuwait in 19 90 and was Table 1. 1 Past Challenges to U.S Interests in the Middle East External Aggression Arab-Israeli wars (19 48, 19 56, 19 67, 19 73, and 19 82) Iranian and Iraqi attacks on Gulf tankers during the Iran-Iraq war (19 87 19 88) Iraqi invasion of Kuwait (19 90) Iraqi threats to Kuwait (19 94) Iranian and Iraqi WMD programs (ongoing) Iranian seizure... political instability in the region could hurt economies around the world EMERGING TRENDS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION What are the prospects for political security in the Middle East in the foreseeable future? RAND Project AIR FORCE studied current political, economic, and social trends in the Middle East to forecast future threats to regional security and their potential impact on the. .. that the campaign against terrorism will unite the major powers and that they will subordinate their other objectives to this shared interest Much will depend on the extent to which the United 11 For a review, see Daniel L Byman and Jerrold D Green, Political Violence and Stability in the States of the Northern Persian Gulf, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND, MR -10 21OSD, 19 99 10 The Future Security Environment. .. neighbors in 19 48, 19 56, 19 67, 19 73, and 19 82 In addition, for much of this period it regularly skirmished with Egyptian and Syrian troops as well as Palestinian guerrillas In the 19 70s, Iran and Iraq engaged in a proxy war over the Shatt al-Arab waterway and then fought a brutal eightyear war with each other in the 19 80s, which led to disruptions in the flow of oil and destabilized the region In 19 71, Iran... 35 43 67 11 2 16 4 SUMMARY Since the end of the 19 91 Gulf War, threats to political security in the Middle East have increased Tensions between states have long threatened to destabilize the region At times these tensions have resulted in open warfare, disrupting political and economic security and creating humanitarian crises Today, the threat of interstate aggression is manifested in new and more dangerous... version 6 Richard W Murphy and F Gregory Gause III, “Democracy and U.S Policy in the Middle East, ” Middle East Policy, Vol 5, No 1, January 19 97, p 59 6 The Future Security Environment in the Middle East In the wake of September 11 , the U.S public may be less tolerant of government support for authoritarian states in the region For example, a survey conducted in November 20 01 found that 57 percent of . 15 U.S. Interests in Middle Eastern Political Reform 17 Pressures for Political Reform in the Middle East 20 Economic Challenges 20 Demographic Trends 21 vi The Future Security Environment in the Middle. U.S. Interests 7 A Changing Region 9 The Shadows of September 11 and the War Against Iraq 10 Report Objectives and Structure 11 Chapter Two POLITICAL REFORM IN THE MIDDLE EAST Nora Bensahel 15 U.S Cataloging -in- Publication Data Bensahel, Nora, 19 71- The future security environment in the Middle East : conflict, stability, and political change / Nora Bensahel, Daniel L. Byman. p. cm. Includes