Kinh tế vĩ mô 2 _ chương 13: Tổng Cung docx

1 kinh t v mô bn th nm N. Gregory Mankiw Bài ging ca Phm Th Anh pham.theanh@yahoo.com (dch và sa theo bài ging ca Ron Cronovich) macro © 2002 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved CHNG 13 Tng Cung CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 1 Mc tiêu ca chng Mc tiêu ca chng     !"  # !"$"  %&'(')*+ CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 2 Ba mô hình tng cung Ba mô hình tng cung ,- ./! 0- .1% 2- . ! 3%45 6 7      = + − α αα α  # 8 9 :/  1;<   #=   CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 3 Mô hình tin lng cng nhc Mô hình tin lng cng nhc  >?@ :'%A /%&B/:C 1<= DEF-  G/:CH  H%<&B% I9J/#=8Hω ωω ωH  % < 1; <D EF5     = ×        = × CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 4 Mô hình tin lng cng nhc Mô hình tin lng cng nhc K=#=       = ×    =    >    <  G&'%L#8 G/#=&/ 8H:MF :'88 %N88 #8 G/#=/ 8H:MF :'D8I /%E9 :#8 CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 5 W/P Y P Y L L W/P 1 W/P 2 L 5 L d ( W/P ) L 2 L 1 Y 2 Y 1 Y 5 F(L) L 2 L 1 P 2 P 1 Y 5 Y 1 a( P 2 P e ) Y 2 Y 1 1. Mc giá tng …. 3. .làm tng vic làm, 4. sn lng, . . 5. . và thu nhp 2. . làm gim tin lng thc t khi tin lng danh ngha không I… . 6. ng tng cung tng kt lI nhng thay I này. (a) Cu lao ng (b) Hàm sn xut (c) Tng cung 2 CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 6 Mô hình tin lng cng nhc Mô hình tin lng cng nhc  O%4@/#=% 1;H %F( 1;1:5 P G*1;H1  *NH /#=D- P G*1;F H1  *H /#=DN-  Q# %F1R=#5 CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 7 Hành vi chu k ca tin lng thc t Hành vi chu k ca tin lng thc t % thay i ca tin lng thc t % thay i ca GDP thc t 1982 1975 1993 1992 1960 1996 1999 1997 1998 1979 1970 1980 1991 1974 1990 1984 2000 1972 1965 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 7 8654 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 8 Mô hình thông tin không hoàn ho Mô hình thông tin không hoàn ho 3 B5  </% "H <B*A@  S%&E&% H %8:%  S%&= : CJ% %E&H 1)   CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 9 Mô hình thông tin không hoàn ho Mô hình thông tin không hoàn ho  3S% % / 9J% 5 :C  -  G"*()F=BE&H% &1)  H :MF?: 1;<H  T -  >?  N  T 1N- K%&C@ /9J UNH:MFE& /- V%E&FMMFH  DN&1%  /  T - CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 10 Mô hình giá c cng nhc Mô hình giá c cng nhc  K$F8A% !5 P  W:%"$:'% 1 % P I#/ P  :'19% 1 %)'*EF8F    >B5 P 3 :'=M JI< 6I:"I )F7 CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 11 Mô hình giá c cng nhc Mô hình giá c cng nhc  . 9J:' %  a XY- >?":'5 Z  :' "H=M  8 Z  :' !H=M  1<= BJ  %  D EF5 6 7     = + −a 6 7        = + −a 3 CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 12 Mô hình giá c cng nhc Mô hình giá c cng nhc  >?@:' ! 1;<@DL#8- GH 6 7        = + −a    =  [(EAF:#*8 RD( -  V4'  %\]:'  !- GR(=   CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 13 Mô hình giá c cng nhc Mô hình giá c cng nhc  G^ 6,−  7  ^=5 6, 7_ 6 7`         = + − + −a  =MLQK  "  =MLQK  ! 6, 7_6 7`        = + − −a  3=  5 6, 7 6 7        −   = + −     a CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 14 Mô hình giá c cng nhc Mô hình giá c cng nhc   T    K= :'1;< H$: '=M D=M - 3 :'1 D@ =M  -      VMH]% -3 :'  "D=M - 3%:' "H  %aH %∆  % =  - 6, 7 6 7        −   = + −     a CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 15 Mô hình giá c cng nhc Mô hình giá c cng nhc  39HR*bc@    5 6, 7 6 7        −   = + −     a 6 7H      = + − α αα α = − : 6, 7   α αα α a CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 16 Mô hình giá c cng nhc Mô hình giá c cng nhc G /!H  !%4/#= M 1; 5 >?dM-GH  3]eJ :' -  3 :' !! E&H%:MF%] -  c#:BF( J] %/#=- CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 17 Tóm tt & ý ngha Tóm tt & ý ngha .S %49 )' 1=L /f * cgbc   hgbc  cgbc 6 7      = + − α αα α    =    >    < 4 CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 18 Tóm tt & ý ngha Tóm tt & ý ngha >?R9] %N 88#8 %  88% <*U1;<-   hgbc cgbc , = + − 5 6 7      α αα αcgbc , ,    = cgbc 0 bQ , bQ 0 0   = 0  2 2    = GT*H  T NH cgbc :B88H %L" #8- ,   = 0  2  = CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 19 Lm phát, Tht nghip và Lm phát, Tht nghip và ng ng Phillips Phillips  = π ππ π %  " 1;<H π ππ π T  5 # 8'J\ ' &'#= \ ' # 8   R 9H ν νν ν = − − + 6 7 π π β ν π π β νπ π β ν π π β ν      β ββ β XY% @9- CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 20 Xây dng ng Xây dng ng Phillips Phillips t t SRAS SRAS 6,7 6 7      α αα α = + − 607 6, 76 7      α αα α = + − , , 6i76 7 6 7 6, 76 7        α ν α να ν α ν − − − = − + − + 6j7 6, 76 7    π π α ν π π α νπ π α ν π π α ν = + − + 6k7 6, 76 7 6 7      α β α βα β α β − = − − 6l7 6 7     π π β ν π π β νπ π β ν π π β ν = − − + 627 6, 76 7      α ν α να ν α ν = + − + CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 21 ng Phillips và ng Phillips và SRAS SRAS  [* cgbc 5 8)=$= 11;<J   [*+5 &'8)=$= 11;<J\'"  cgbc5 6 7      α αα α = + − = − − + +5 6 7     π π β ν π π β νπ π β ν π π β ν CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 22 K vng thích nghi K vng thích nghi  5 %/  B@<*=M1;< J<" /:#8"  ) ]-  .I:/5 h" 1;<m" EF N , 6 7    π π β ν π π β νπ π β ν π π β ν − = − − + ,  π π π ππ π π π − =  K8*+-3-L% CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 23 Tính ì ca lm phát Tính ì ca lm phát  GT:"%FH*+ %4"  I5 P V1 R9F& '1;H" D9BL '"J- P h" ) 1L= 1;<" '"H%1;< %F"L=/f  %<*=M- , 6 7    π π β ν π π β νπ π β ν π π β ν − = − − + 5 CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 24 Hai nguyên nhân lm phát tng & gim Hai nguyên nhân lm phát tng & gim   !"5 " E&  ^ R9- 3 R9&*%N IE&%1=:' N HneFo" 8-  #$5 " :  R9]- 3 R9:/9]1= &'E9:# 8Hn1po\'" 8- , 6 7    π π β ν π π β νπ π β ν π π β ν − = − − + CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 25 V ng Phillips V ng Phillips G!"H  %"BI  9q # $ π ππ π %  -  π ππ π   , β ββ β [*+ !"  π ν π νπ ν π ν + 6 7     π π β ν π π β νπ π β ν π π β ν = − − + CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 26 Dch chuyn ng Phillips Dch chuyn ng Phillips GT* <* r1;< J<H:MF # r W" !"  π ππ π   ,  π ν π νπ ν π ν + 6 7     π π β ν π π β νπ π β ν π π β ν = − − + 0  π ππ π ν νν ν + sI:H#N J π ππ π  :BF( *+3!" 88- CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 27 T l ánh i T l ánh i  [(" H %"B I (!q]H 1=&'N88\ '#8J-  %&  '*]N >Q+#=JNF (" ,t-  3 1=)1 H F8=% j- CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 28 T l ánh i T l ánh i  >? %"BI  9" ^kE9u 0t- K=\' % jH'"  it]F i×jm0Yt>Q+J N-  [%F ( #'@  HI : P >Q+0YtN P >Q+,YtSNu0N P  >Q+jtSNuiN  3IJ'" %]>Q+& - v"(?:)FM w1( F(I%F&'- CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 29 K vng hp lý K vng hp lý 3   '=M1;<5   5 <*=M1;<J<"  /:#8" )  ]-  () 5 .<*=M1;<J<:#8 & xHW $I '"%/ - 6 CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 30 Gim phát không có chi phí? Gim phát không có chi phí?  K$*E&1;<4@ \' %&a5  >?  m   % π ππ π m π ππ π  mktH %?@KOGy @<D %&1;]=("  ^kE9u0t%%9-  K= 8% MFH  π ππ π  D H D %   it-  QMFH π ππ π  ( % 1%N  - CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 31 T l ánh i trong vic T l ánh i trong vic gim lm phát ca gim lm phát ca Volcker Volcker  ,z{,5π ππ π mzHlt ,z{j5π ππ π m2HYt ,H,kHYlH,,z{j ,HikHYlHi,z{i 2HjkHYzHj,z{2 2HjtkHYtzHjt,z{0 − −− −     KN G zHjt G  mkHlt CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 32 T l ánh i trong vic T l ánh i trong vic gim lm phát ca Volcker gim lm phát ca Volcker  |:T5 P "  kHlt P &'1;% zHjt  }FMw15 S]NJ\'&'%4 &0t- QMFHzHjt&'1;/ ,zHYt>Q+JN-  G\'  m6>Q+&7d6 7 m,zdkHlm0H{]N >Q+U&( " ,t- CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 33 Gi thuyt v t l t nhiên Gi thuyt v t l t nhiên +AIJRI" H%$ =1=$/H:# 8*"+,&-.5 Nhng thay i ca tng cu ch có nh hng n sn lng và vic làm trong ngn hn. Trong dài hn, nn kinh t tr v mc sn lng, vic làm, và tht nghip nh ã mô t trong mô hình c in (chng 3-8). Nhng thay i ca tng cu ch có nh Nhng thay i ca tng cu ch có nh hng n sn lng và vic làm trong hng n sn lng và vic làm trong ngn hn. ngn hn. Trong dài hn, nn kinh t tr v mc Trong dài hn, nn kinh t tr v mc sn lng, vic làm, và tht nghip nh sn lng, vic làm, và tht nghip nh ã mô t trong mô hình c in ã mô t trong mô hình c in ( ( chng chng 3 3 - - 8). 8). CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 34 Mt gi thuyt khác: Mt gi thuyt khác: tính tr tính tr  %/05 %L1p:%J) 19 $=\'&'#8-  K$R9&(%N   H:MF 1=(1W%% 5  V~NJ$A&'1; (B1&'H%<1 ('1F 1=R-  K$A&'1;(  &LJ<9'=M /•$*6A '7(q// <-QMFn$*%o&' 1;(L%&'/&1 F 1=R- CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 35 Tóm tt chng Tóm tt chng ,- v!"5  /!  1%   ! 3%4@N 8#81 :  1;<- 7 CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 36 Tóm tt chng Tóm tt chng 0-[*+  EAF:#^*cgbc  @" %  " 1;<  &'1;   R9  & %"BI  # !"$" % &' CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 37 Tóm tt chng Tóm tt chng 2- 3*=M1;<" = %  1;<I  :#8" ) ]  %4nIo  1;<4  :#8&$x  %4'" ( 1I CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 38 Tóm tt chng Tóm tt chng i- >F=\'#8%I€  F=\'#8  @$FJ] r(L=% '%!"  I€  @](' A:%9%'% . L W/P 1 W/P 2 L 5 L d ( W/P ) L 2 L 1 Y 2 Y 1 Y 5 F(L) L 2 L 1 P 2 P 1 Y 5 Y 1 a( P 2 P e ) Y 2 Y 1 1. Mc giá tng …. 3. .làm tng vic làm, 4. sn lng, . . 5. . và thu nhp 2. . làm. thay i ca GDP thc t 19 82 1975 1993 19 92 1960 1996 1999 1997 1998 1979 1970 1980 1991 1974 1990 1984 20 00 19 72 1965 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 7 8654 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER. 13 Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply slide 2 Ba mô hình tng cung Ba mô hình tng cung ,- ./! 0- .1% 2- . ! 3%45 6