Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11463.html 498 RISING ABOVE THE GATHERING STORM TABLE NHS-3 National Weapon Laboratories Personnel Recruitment Programs Program Sponsor Pre-College (K–12) Materials World Modules Army STARBASE OSD-RA eCybermission Army Undergraduate Awards to Stimulate and Support AFOSR with NSF Undergraduate Research Education (ASSURE) Research Assistantships in DARPA with Semiconductor Microelectronics Industries Association Science, Mathematics, and Research AFOSR for Transformation (SMART) Graduate National Defense Science and NDSEG Engineering Graduate Fellowships Naval Research—S&T for Navy with NSF Americas Readiness (N-STAR) SMART AFOSR NOTE: OSD-RA = Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Reserve Affairs, AFOSR = Air Force Office of Scientific Research, DARPA = Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. SOURCE: B. Berry, Acting Deputy Undersecretary for Laboratories and Basic Science. “STEM Education Act” presentation at STARBASE Directors’ Conference, April 7, 2005. Available at: http://www.starbasedod.com/resources/SME%20Briefing-STARBASE%20Directors% 20Conf%204-7-05v5%20wo%20Backup.ppt. master’s programs, undergraduate loan forgiveness, grants to support inno- vative undergraduate curricula, grants to expand K–12 education outreach, summer training and research opportunities for K–12 teachers, employer S&E and foreign-language educational tax breaks, national-laboratory and federal service professional incentives, and additional funds for program evaluation. 28 28 National Research Council, 2002; R. M. Sega, Director of Defense Research and Engi- neering, DOD. Testimony Before the Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities of the Senate Armed Services Committee, March 9, 2005. Available at: http://armed- services.senate.gov/statemnt/2005/March/Sega%2003-09-05.pdf; Association of American Universities, 2005. White Paper. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11463.html APPENDIX D 499 FIGURE NHS-6 DOD strategy for proposed National Defense Education Act (NDEA) within its current portfolio of workforce programs. SOURCE: E. Swallow. Chair, National Defense Industry Association Space Division and Chair, Industry Study on Critical Workforce Issues. Presentation at the National Defense Industry Association meeting, April 2005. Available at: http://proceedings. ndia.org/4340/swallow.pdf. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11463.html Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11463.html 501 Appendix E Estimated Recommendation Cost Tables The following tables provide each implementation action and a “back of the envelope” estimate of the incremental annual cost to the federal gov- ernment for each. These cost estimates are to illustrate the size of the pro- gram the committee is proposing and are not definitive. To obtain a more definitive estimate, economic modeling would be necessary. Since the prepublication version of the report was released on October 12, 2005, policy-makers have requested a 10-year annual cost estimate for the committee’s recommendations. That estimate is what is presented here. In developing this estimate, the committee collected more detailed informa- tion than it had at that time to develop these cost estimates. In addition, we have attempted to provide sufficient information so that the cost estimates could be re-created. In many cases, programs are phased in over a number of years. In addi- tion, some of the scholarship and fellowship programs take 3-4 years to reach steady state. The aggregate cost estimate of all the recommendations remain in the same range as the committee developed in October 2005. The cost estimate at that time was $9.2 to $23.8 billion. The current aggregate cost estimate is $8.6 to $19.8 billion. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11463.html 502 RISING ABOVE THE GATHERING STORM Gathering Storm Annual Cost Estimate, by Recommendation, 2007-2016 (millions of dollars) Recommendation 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 K–12 376 747 1219 1689 1976 Research 1670 2790 4010 5430 6850 Higher Education 1100 1700 2300 2675 2675 Innovation 5423 5423 5423 5423 5423 TOTAL 8569 10660 12952 15217 16924 Gathering Storm Annual Cost Estimate, by Action Item, 2007-2016 (millions of dollars) Action Item Recommendation 2007 2008 2009 2010 A-1 Recruit 10,000 Teachers 110 295 550 815 A-2a Summer Institutes 40 80 120 120 A-2b Master’s Program 46 92 158 224 A-2c AP/IB Teacher Incentives 100 179 265 363 A-2d Science and Math Curriculum 20 20 20 20 A-3 AP/IB Student Incentives 60 81 106 147 Total (K–12) 376 747 1219 1689 B-1 Long-Term Basic Research 800 1700 2700 3900 B-2 Early-Career Research Award 20 40 60 80 B-3 Research Infrastructure 500 500 500 500 B-4 High-Risk Research 0000 B-5 ARPA-Energy 300 500 700 900 B-6 Presidential Innovation Award 50 50 50 50 Total (Research) 1670 2790 4010 5430 C-1 Undergraduate Scholarships 375 750 1125 1500 C-2 Graduate Portable Fellowships 225 450 675 675 C-3 Continuing Educ. Tax Credit 500 500 500 500 C-4 Expedite Visa Processing 0000 C-5 Intl Student Work Permits 0000 C-6 Skills-Based Immigration Policy 0000 Total (Higher Education) 1100 1700 2300 2675 D-1 Intellectual Property Protection 323 323 323 323 D-2 R&D Tax Credit 5100 5100 5100 5100 D-3 Innovation Tax Incentives Study 0000 D-4 Ubiquitous Broadband Internet 0000 Total (Incentives for Innovation) 5423 5423 5423 5423 2007 2008 2009 2010 Grand Total (Billions of Dollars) 8.6 10.7 13 15.2 Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11463.html APPENDIX E 503 % of 5-Year Total Total 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 in 2016 6007 2071 2091 2091 2091 2091 10.5 20750 8250 9650 9650 9650 9650 48.6 10450 2675 2675 2675 2675 2675 13.5 27115 5423 5423 5423 5423 5423 27.3 64322 18419 19839 19839 19839 19839 99.9 5-Year 2011 Total 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 965 2735 1040 1040 1040 1040 1040 120 480 120 120 120 120 120 290 810 310 330 330 330 330 400 1307 400 400 400 400 400 20 100 20 20 20 20 20 181 575 181 181 181 181 181 1976 6007 2071 2091 2091 2091 2091 5200 14300 6600 8000 8000 8000 8000 100 300 100 100 100 100 100 500 2500 500 500 500 500 500 0000000 1000 3400 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 50 250 50 50 50 50 50 6850 20750 8250 9650 9650 9650 9650 1500 5250 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 675 2700 675 675 675 675 675 500 2500 500 500 500 500 500 0000000 0000000 0000000 2675 10450 2675 2675 2675 2675 2675 323 1615 323 323 323 323 323 5100 25500 5100 5100 5100 5100 5100 0000000 0000000 5423 27115 5423 5423 5423 5423 5423 2011 10045 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 16.9 64.4 18.4 19.8 19.8 19.8 19.8 Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11463.html 504 RISING ABOVE THE GATHERING STORM Action A-2a (Summer Institutes) Detailed Analysis Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 Number of Teachers 16500 33500 50000 50000 Cost per Teacher ($) 2400 2400 2400 2400 Total ($M) 40 80 120 120 Action A-2b (Master’s Program) Detailed Analysis Year 2007 2008 2009 Number of Programs 100 200 300 400 Students per Program 20 20 20 20 Number of Students/Program 2000 4000 6000 8000 Cost per Student 23000 23000 23000 23000 Cost per Program ($M) 46 92 138 184 Number of Graduates 2000 4000 Cost per Bonus 10000 10000 Bonus Cost ($M) 20 40 Total ($M) 46 92 158 224 Breakdown of Program Cost ($) (100 students over a 5-year period) Course Development 100,000 Administrative Staff Cost 500,000 Tuition 1,500,000 Transportation Reimbursement 150,000 Equipment 50,000 Total $/Student 23,000 NOTE: Program cost estimate based on email from Hai-Lung Dai of the University of Pennsylvania to Deborah Stine dated December 20, 2005. Action A-1 (Recruit 10,000 Teachers) Detailed Analysis Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 Millions of Dollars Scholarships 75 225 450 675 Bonuses 0 0 0 40 Institutional Awards 35 70 100 100 Total 110 295 550 815 Scholarship if $15,000 per Year Number of Old Students 5000 5000 15000 30000 Number of New Students 10000 15000 15000 Scholarship $ 15000 15000 15000 15000 Total $M 75 225 450 675 Bonuses Number of Teachers 0 0 0 4000 Bonus $ 0 0 0 10000 Total $M 0 0 0 40 Institutional Matching Grants Number of Institutions 35 70 100 100 Grant $M 1111 Total $M 35 70 100 100 Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11463.html APPENDIX E 505 2011 2012 2013 Steady State 50000 50000 50000 50000 2400 2400 2400 2400 120 120 120 120 2010 2011 2012 2013 Steady State 500 500 500 500 20 20 20 20 10000 10000 10000 10000 23000 23000 23000 23000 230 230 230 230 6000 8000 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 60 80 100 100 290 310 330 330 2011 2012 2013 Steady State 825 900 900 900 40 40 40 40 100 100 100 100 965 1040 1040 1040 45000 55000 60000 60000 10000 5000 15000 15000 15000 15000 825 900 900 900 4000 4000 4000 4000 10000 10000 10000 10000 40 40 40 40 100 100 100 100 111 1 100 100 100 100 Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11463.html 506 RISING ABOVE THE GATHERING STORM Action A-3 (AP/IB Student Incentive Program) Detailed Analysis Year 2007 2008 Number of Math and Science AP/IB Students 570000 700000 Exam Fee (50% of $82 fee) 41 41 Total AP-IB Exam Fee Cost 23 29 Estimated Number of Passing AP/IB Scores 313500 385000 Student Mini-Scholarship for Passing AP/IB Scores 100 100 Total Mini-Scholarships 31 39 Number of Pre-AP/IB Students Taking Test 640000 1280000 Exam Fee (50% of $20 fee) 10 10 Total Pre-AP/IB Exam Fee Cost 6 13 Total ($M) 60 81 Action A-2c (AP/IB Teacher Incentive Program) Detailed Analysis Year 2007 2008 2009 Number of Math and Science AP/IB Teachers 14000 28000 42000 Number Laying the Foundation (LTF) 16000 32000 48000 (Pre-AP/IB) Teachers Training Fee per Teacher 800 800 800 Total Training Cost ($M) 24 48 72 Stipend Fee/AP/IB Teacher 1800 1800 1800 Total Stipends for AP/IB Teachers ($M) 25 50 76 Stipend Fee/LTF Teacher 1000 1000 1000 Total Stipends for LTF Teachers ($M) 16 32 48 Estimated Number of Passing AP/IB Scores 313500 385000 495000 Teacher Bonus for Passing AP/IB Scores 100 100 100 Total AP/IB Teacher Bonuses ($M) 31 39 50 Estimated Number of Passing LTF Scores 160000 384000 768000 Teacher Bonus for Passing LTF Scores 25 25 25 Total LTF Teacher Bonuses ($M) 4 10 19 Total ($M) 100 179 265 Action A-2d (Curriculum Standards) Cost: $100 million over 5 years Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11463.html APPENDIX E 507 2009 2010 2011 2012 Steady State 900000 1250000 1500000 1500000 1500000 41 41 41 41 41 37 51 62 62 62 495000 700000 870000 870000 870000 100 100 100 100 100 50 70 87 87 87 1920000 2560000 3200000 3200000 3200000 10 10 10 10 10 19 26 32 32 32 106 147 181 181 181 2010 2011 2012 2013 Steady State 56000 56000 56000 56000 56000 64000 64000 64000 64000 64000 800 800 800 800 800 96 96 96 96 96 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800 101 101 101 101 101 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 64 64 64 64 64 700000 870000 870000 870000 870000 100 100 100 100 100 70 87 87 87 87 1280000 2080000 2080000 2080000 2080000 25 25 25 25 25 32 52 52 52 52 363 400 400 400 400 [...]... Future: National and Regional Priorities Washington, DC: National Academy Press Copyright © National Academy of Sciences All rights reserved Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11463.html 528 RISING ABOVE THE GATHERING STORM National Research Council 1999 Challenges and Opportunities Washington, DC: National Academy... Foreign Relations Center for Strategic and International Studies 1996 Global Innovation/National Competitiveness Washington, DC: CSIS Copyright © National Academy of Sciences All rights reserved Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11463.html 520 RISING ABOVE THE GATHERING STORM Center for Strategic and International... Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11463.html 530 RISING ABOVE THE GATHERING STORM National Science Foundation 2003 The Science and Engineering Workforce: Realizing America s Potential Arlington, VA: NSF National Science Foundation 2003 Graduate Enrollment Increases in Science and Engineering Fields, Especially... http://ed.sjtu.edu.cn/rank/2004/2004Main.htm Copyright © National Academy of Sciences All rights reserved Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11463.html APPENDIX G 533 Sharma, D C., and M Yamamoto 2004 How India is handling international backlash CNET news.com, May 6 Sigma Xi 2004 Sigma Xi National Postdoctoral Survey Available at:.. .Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11463.html 508 RISING ABOVE THE GATHERING STORM Action B-1 (Research Funding) Detailed Analysis: The base for this cost estimate was determined using information from the following National Science Foundation (NSF) publication: Federal Funds for Research and Development:... Copyright © National Academy of Sciences All rights reserved Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11463.html Appendix G Bibliography Adelman, C 1998 Women and Men on the Engineering Path: A Model for Analysis of Undergraduate Careers Washington, DC: US Department of Education Available at http://www.nae edu/nae/diversitycom.nsf/98b72da8aad70f1785256da20053deaf/85256cfb00484b5c... lead up to AP or IB courses The proposed professional development program for AP/IB teachers is 7 days a year for 4 years; for Laying the Foundation teachers it is 8 days a year for 4 years Assuming 10% attrition among the current 33,000 AP mathematics and science teachers and by training an additional 70,000 teachers, public high schools would have an estimated 100 ,000 mathematics and science teachers... National Academy Press National Research Council 1999 Balancing Scientific Openness and National Security Controls at the Nuclear Weapons Laboratories Washington, DC: National Academy Press National Research Council 1999 A Strategic Plan for Education Research and Its Utilization Washington, DC: National Academy Press National Research Council 1999 Harnessing Science and Technology for America s Economic. .. Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11463.html 510 RISING ABOVE THE GATHERING STORM Action C-2 (Graduate Fellowships) Detailed Analysis: As with the undergraduate scholarships, the committee recommends that up to $20,000/year be provided for fellowships This analysis focuses on the mid-range fellowship of $15,000/year... May 2 Available at: http://www businessweek.com/magazine/content/05_18/b393 1106 .htm and http://www.usnews.com/ usnews/biztech/articles/0 5101 0/10energy.htm 517 Copyright © National Academy of Sciences All rights reserved Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11463.html 518 RISING ABOVE THE GATHERING STORM Aslanbeigui, . National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11463.html 498 RISING. National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11463.html 504 RISING. 70 100 100 Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11463.html APPENDIX