Utility Management Challenges for the 21stCentury: Managing in an Era of Uncertainty April 2009 Uncertainty Challenges l Economy: What Does the Future Hold l Demand and Supply Forecastin
Trang 1Utility Management Challenges for the 21st
Century: Managing in an Era of Uncertainty
April 2009
Uncertainty Challenges
l Economy: What Does the Future Hold
l Demand and Supply Forecasting
l Infrastructure Repair and Replacement
l Climate Change/Variability
l Finances/Rates/Affordability
l Workforce Challenges
Trang 2Asset Management as a Framework to Address Uncertainty
“Meeting agreed
customer and
environmental
service levels
while minimizing
life cycle costs”.
To Become an Asset Management Based Organization You Need To Address
1 Customer and environmental service levels
2 Risk assessment and quantification
3 Life Cycle costs analysis using triple bottom line
4 Long Range Planning
5 Asset and data systems
6 Rational Rates and Affordability
7 Clarity of Organizational Roles and Responsibilities
8 Formal Capital Decision Making Processes
9 Track and Measure Results
10 Benchmarking
Trang 3Customer Service Levels and Performance Indicators
l Find out from customers what services are most important to them
l Set service levels and make investments needed to meet them-now and into the future
l Establish and measure performance
indicators
Wastewater Service Levels
Effective
Conveyance
(SSO sewer
backups)
By 2020, no more than one
sewer backup in 5 years, on
average, at any location,
caused by a problem with the
SPU sewer system.
Number of annual SSOs as reported by location.
Wet Weather
Combined Sewer
Overflows
By 2020, CSOs shall be limited
to an average of one untreated
discharge per CSO per site per
year.
Number of precipitation-related CSO events per CSO site per year.
Dry Weather
Combined Sewer
Overflows
No dry weather CSOs are
currently allowed by regulation.
Number of total dry weather CSO events per year in SPU’s system.
Problem
Response
SPU shall respond quickly and
effectively to problems with
potential health consequences.
80% of high priority sewer backup/overflow problems responded
to within 1 hour.
80% of high priority sewer backup/overflow problems have service reinstated within 6 hours.
Trang 4Performance Indicators
YTD Backups in City System
0
50
100
150
2007 Actuals Target Maximum
2008 Actuals
Performance Indicators
% DWW Emergency Responses Within Targeted Tim e
0%
50%
100%
Target Min = 80%
Trang 5Performance Indicators
C u s t o m e r s W ith W at e r Ou t ag e s
> 4 Ho u r s C u m u la tiv e ly
0
1 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
3 0 0 0
4 0 0 0
5 0 0 0
6 0 0 0
7 0 0 0
8 0 0 0
Monthly A c tua l Cumulativ e A c tual
Cumu lativ e Target Max
Performance Indicators
% Drink ing Wate r Em e rge ncy Re s pons e s
Within Tar ge te d Tim e s
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
% Compliance
Target Min
Trang 6Performance Indicators
Repeat Misses per 10,000 Stops for
Can Service
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
WMI USD Target Max
Performance Indicators
Sick Leave as % of Total Hours Worked
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Actual 2005 Dept Actuals Target Max
Trang 7Risk Assessment
l Understand your highest risk activities
l Understand the likelihood and consequences
of failure of your assets
l Manage based on risk cost and the cost to mitigate risk
l Reduce asset risk through capital
investments or changed maintenance
practices and response protocols
1 Define failure.
Consequence
of Failure
3 Determine Risk…
Risk
Cost =
Likelihood of
2 Collect and analyze data.
Risk Assessment
Trang 8RISK SIGNATURE LEVEL DETERMINANT
Likelihood Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Extreme Almost certain M M H C C
Likely M M H C C
Possible L M M H H
Unlikely L L M H H
Rare L L M M M
Consequence
Risk Categories
include:
u Asset and service
reliability
u Environment and
public health
u Financial
u Legal
u Public Trust
u Regulatory
u Safety
u Security
u Workforce
Corporate Risk Management
An Example: Water Conservation Policy
Alternative
Conservation
Baseline
Strategies Description and Performance Measure P
Do Nothing
No messaging or incentives No performance
measure.
Awareness
Campaign
Messaging; no incentives Less intense than
1% program Customer survey to assess
effectiveness Results estimated <.3 MGD
annual savings
Program to Shave
Peak
Investment
Variable
Less intense than 1% program Set
performance goal for peak season Results
could range from <.3-.5 MGD peak season
savings
Low Intensity
Program /
Investment
Less intense than 1% program Set
performance goal on per capita demand
Results could be in range of 7 MGD annual
savings
Medium Intensity
Program /
Investment
Similar intensity to 1% program Set
performance goal to keep demand flat
Results could range from 1-1.5 MGD annual
savings
High Intensity
Program /
Intensity estimated to be greater than 1%
program Set performance goal to reduce
total demand Results could be above 1.5
Trang 9Risk Assessment
An Example: Sewer Pipes
Risk is Minimized by
Concentrating Limited
Resources on Sewer Pipes
with the Highest Risk Cost of
Failure
0.0000
0.0050
0.0100
0.0150
0.0200
0.0250
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Years Since Installation
Asset Risk Assessment
Trang 10Asset Risk Assessment
Asset Risk Assessment
Trang 11Long Term Supply and Demand Planning
l One thing we know about demand forecasting
is as soon as we do a new forecast it is
wrong!
l Demand forecasting is both art and science
l Demand forecasting needs to be dynamic (i.e updated frequently)
Actual Water Demand and Past Forecasts
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
Actual Annual
1967 SWD Forecast
1973 RIBCO Forecast
1980 Complan Forecast Medium
1980 Complan Forecast Medium-Low
1985 Complan Forecast-Medium
1993 WSP Forecast
1997 Revised Forecast
2001 WSP Forecast
2003 Official Forecast
2006 Draft Forecast