Engineering Statistics Handbook Episode 2 Part 12 docx

2 48.0 64.0500 6.2731 -2.56 3 23.0 18.4069 3.8239 1.20 4 11.0 4.0071 1.9366 3.61 5 4.0 0.7071 0.8347 3.95 6 2.0 0.1052 0.3240 5.85 7 2.0 0.0136 0.1164 17.06 8 0.0 0.0015 0.0393 -0.04 9 0.0 0.0002 0.0125 -0.01 10 0.0 0.0000 0.0038 0.00 STATISTIC = NUMBER OF RUNS UP OF LENGTH I OR MORE I STAT EXP(STAT) SD(STAT) Z 1 192.0 233.1667 7.8779 -5.23 2 90.0 87.2917 5.2610 0.51 3 42.0 23.2417 4.0657 4.61 4 19.0 4.8347 2.1067 6.72 5 8.0 0.8276 0.9016 7.96 6 4.0 0.1205 0.3466 11.19 7 2.0 0.0153 0.1236 16.06 8 0.0 0.0017 0.0414 -0.04 9 0.0 0.0002 0.0132 -0.01 10 0.0 0.0000 0.0040 0.00 RUNS DOWN STATISTIC = NUMBER OF RUNS DOWN OF LENGTH EXACTLY I I STAT EXP(STAT) SD(STAT) Z 1 106.0 145.8750 12.1665 -3.28 2 47.0 64.0500 6.2731 -2.72 3 24.0 18.4069 3.8239 1.46 4 8.0 4.0071 1.9366 2.06 5 4.0 0.7071 0.8347 3.95 6 3.0 0.1052 0.3240 8.94 7 0.0 0.0136 0.1164 -0.12 8 0.0 0.0015 0.0393 -0.04 9 0.0 0.0002 0.0125 -0.01 10 0.0 0.0000 0.0038 0.00 STATISTIC = NUMBER OF RUNS DOWN OF LENGTH I OR MORE I STAT EXP(STAT) SD(STAT) Z 1 192.0 233.1667 7.8779 -5.23 2 86.0 87.2917 5.2610 -0.25 3 39.0 23.2417 4.0657 3.88 4 15.0 4.8347 2.1067 4.83 5 7.0 0.8276 0.9016 6.85 6 3.0 0.1205 0.3466 8.31 7 0.0 0.0153 0.1236 -0.12 8 0.0 0.0017 0.0414 -0.04 1.4.2.4.3. Quantitative Output and Interpretation http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/eda/section4/eda4243.htm (4 of 8) [5/1/2006 9:58:49 AM] 9 0.0 0.0002 0.0132 -0.01 10 0.0 0.0000 0.0040 0.00 RUNS TOTAL = RUNS UP + RUNS DOWN STATISTIC = NUMBER OF RUNS TOTAL OF LENGTH EXACTLY I I STAT EXP(STAT) SD(STAT) Z 1 208.0 291.7500 17.2060 -4.87 2 95.0 128.1000 8.8716 -3.73 3 47.0 36.8139 5.4079 1.88 4 19.0 8.0143 2.7387 4.01 5 8.0 1.4141 1.1805 5.58 6 5.0 0.2105 0.4582 10.45 7 2.0 0.0271 0.1647 11.98 8 0.0 0.0031 0.0556 -0.06 9 0.0 0.0003 0.0177 -0.02 10 0.0 0.0000 0.0054 -0.01 STATISTIC = NUMBER OF RUNS TOTAL OF LENGTH I OR MORE I STAT EXP(STAT) SD(STAT) Z 1 384.0 466.3333 11.1410 -7.39 2 176.0 174.5833 7.4402 0.19 3 81.0 46.4833 5.7498 6.00 4 34.0 9.6694 2.9794 8.17 5 15.0 1.6552 1.2751 10.47 6 7.0 0.2410 0.4902 13.79 7 2.0 0.0306 0.1748 11.27 8 0.0 0.0034 0.0586 -0.06 9 0.0 0.0003 0.0186 -0.02 10 0.0 0.0000 0.0056 -0.01 LENGTH OF THE LONGEST RUN UP = 7 LENGTH OF THE LONGEST RUN DOWN = 6 LENGTH OF THE LONGEST RUN UP OR DOWN = 7 NUMBER OF POSITIVE DIFFERENCES = 262 NUMBER OF NEGATIVE DIFFERENCES = 258 NUMBER OF ZERO DIFFERENCES = 179 Values in the column labeled "Z" greater than 1.96 or less than -1.96 are statistically significant at the 5% level. The runs test indicates some mild non-randomness. Although the runs test and lag 1 autocorrelation indicate some mild non-randomness, it is not sufficient to reject the Y i = C + E i model. At least part of the non-randomness can be explained by the discrete nature of the data. 1.4.2.4.3. Quantitative Output and Interpretation http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/eda/section4/eda4243.htm (5 of 8) [5/1/2006 9:58:49 AM] Distributional Analysis Probability plots are a graphical test for assessing if a particular distribution provides an adequate fit to a data set. A quantitative enhancement to the probability plot is the correlation coefficient of the points on the probability plot. For this data set the correlation coefficient is 0.975. Since this is less than the critical value of 0.987 (this is a tabulated value), the normality assumption is rejected. Chi-square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit tests are alternative methods for assessing distributional adequacy. The Wilk-Shapiro and Anderson-Darling tests can be used to test for normality. Dataplot generates the following output for the Anderson-Darling normality test. ANDERSON-DARLING 1-SAMPLE TEST THAT THE DATA CAME FROM A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION 1. STATISTICS: NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS = 700 MEAN = 2898.562 STANDARD DEVIATION = 1.304969 ANDERSON-DARLING TEST STATISTIC VALUE = 16.76349 ADJUSTED TEST STATISTIC VALUE = 16.85843 2. CRITICAL VALUES: 90 % POINT = 0.6560000 95 % POINT = 0.7870000 97.5 % POINT = 0.9180000 99 % POINT = 1.092000 3. CONCLUSION (AT THE 5% LEVEL): THE DATA DO NOT COME FROM A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION. The Anderson-Darling test rejects the normality assumption because the test statistic, 16.76, is greater than the 99% critical value 1.092. Although the data are not strictly normal, the violation of the normality assumption is not severe enough to conclude that the Y i = C + E i model is unreasonable. At least part of the non-normality can be explained by the discrete nature of the data. Outlier Analysis A test for outliers is the Grubbs test. Dataplot generated the following output for Grubbs' test. GRUBBS TEST FOR OUTLIERS (ASSUMPTION: NORMALITY) 1. STATISTICS: NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS = 700 MINIMUM = 2895.000 MEAN = 2898.562 MAXIMUM = 2902.000 STANDARD DEVIATION = 1.304969 GRUBBS TEST STATISTIC = 2.729201 1.4.2.4.3. Quantitative Output and Interpretation http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/eda/section4/eda4243.htm (6 of 8) [5/1/2006 9:58:49 AM] 2. PERCENT POINTS OF THE REFERENCE DISTRIBUTION FOR GRUBBS TEST STATISTIC 0 % POINT = 0.000000 50 % POINT = 3.371397 75 % POINT = 3.554906 90 % POINT = 3.784969 95 % POINT = 3.950619 97.5 % POINT = 4.109569 99 % POINT = 4.311552 100 % POINT = 26.41972 3. CONCLUSION (AT THE 5% LEVEL): THERE ARE NO OUTLIERS. For this data set, Grubbs' test does not detect any outliers at the 10%, 5%, and 1% significance levels. Model Although the randomness and normality assumptions were mildly violated, we conclude that a reasonable model for the data is: In addition, a 95% confidence interval for the mean value is (2898.515,2898.928). Univariate Report It is sometimes useful and convenient to summarize the above results in a report. Analysis for Josephson Junction Cryothermometry Data 1: Sample Size = 700 2: Location Mean = 2898.562 Standard Deviation of Mean = 0.049323 95% Confidence Interval for Mean = (2898.465,2898.658) Drift with respect to location? = YES (Further analysis indicates that the drift, while statistically significant, is not practically significant) 3: Variation Standard Deviation = 1.30497 95% Confidence Interval for SD = (1.240007,1.377169) Drift with respect to variation? (based on Levene's test on quarters of the data) = NO 4: Distribution Normal PPCC = 0.97484 Data are Normal? (as measured by Normal PPCC) = NO 5: Randomness Autocorrelation = 0.314802 Data are Random? (as measured by autocorrelation) = NO 6: Statistical Control (i.e., no drift in location or scale, data are random, distribution is 1.4.2.4.3. Quantitative Output and Interpretation http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/eda/section4/eda4243.htm (7 of 8) [5/1/2006 9:58:49 AM] fixed, here we are testing only for fixed normal) Data Set is in Statistical Control? = NO Note: Although we have violations of the assumptions, they are mild enough, and at least partially explained by the discrete nature of the data, so we may model the data as if it were in statistical control 7: Outliers? (as determined by Grubbs test) = NO 1.4.2.4.3. Quantitative Output and Interpretation http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/eda/section4/eda4243.htm (8 of 8) [5/1/2006 9:58:49 AM] overlaid normal pdf. 4. Generate a normal probability plot. 3. The histogram indicates that a normal distribution is a good distribution for these data. 4. The discrete nature of the data masks the normality or non-normality of the data somewhat. The plot indicates that a normal distribution provides a rough approximation for the data. 4. Generate summary statistics, quantitative analysis, and print a univariate report. 1. Generate a table of summary statistics. 2. Generate the mean, a confidence interval for the mean, and compute a linear fit to detect drift in location. 3. Generate the standard deviation, a confidence interval for the standard deviation, and detect drift in variation by dividing the data into quarters and computing Levene's test for equal standard deviations. 4. Check for randomness by generating an autocorrelation plot and a runs test. 5. Check for normality by computing the normal probability plot correlation coefficient. 6. Check for outliers using Grubbs' test. 7. Print a univariate report (this assumes steps 2 thru 6 have already been run). 1. The summary statistics table displays 25+ statistics. 2. The mean is 2898.56 and a 95% confidence interval is (2898.46,2898.66). The linear fit indicates no meaningful drift in location since the value of the slope parameter is near zero. 3. The standard devaition is 1.30 with a 95% confidence interval of (1.24,1.38). Levene's test indicates no significant drift in variation. 4. The lag 1 autocorrelation is 0.31. This indicates some mild non-randomness. 5. The normal probability plot correlation coefficient is 0.975. At the 5% level, we reject the normality assumption. 6. Grubbs' test detects no outliers at the 5% level. 7. The results are summarized in a convenient report. 1.4.2.4.4. Work This Example Yourself http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/eda/section4/eda4244.htm (2 of 2) [5/1/2006 9:58:50 AM] 1. Exploratory Data Analysis 1.4. EDA Case Studies 1.4.2. Case Studies 1.4.2.5. Beam Deflections 1.4.2.5.1.Background and Data Generation This data set was collected by H. S. Lew of NIST in 1969 to measure steel-concrete beam deflections. The response variable is the deflection of a beam from the center point. The motivation for studying this data set is to show how the underlying assumptions are affected by periodic data. This file can be read by Dataplot with the following commands: SKIP 25 READ LEW.DAT Y Resulting Data The following are the data used for this case study. -213 -564 -35 -15 141 115 -420 -360 203 -338 -431 194 -220 -513 154 -125 -559 92 -21 -579 1.4.2.5.1. Background and Data http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/eda/section4/eda4251.htm (1 of 6) [5/1/2006 9:58:50 AM] -52 99 -543 -175 162 -457 -346 204 -300 -474 164 -107 -572 -8 83 -541 -224 180 -420 -374 201 -236 -531 83 27 -564 -112 131 -507 -254 199 -311 -495 143 -46 -579 -90 136 -472 -338 202 -287 -477 169 -124 -568 1.4.2.5.1. Background and Data http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/eda/section4/eda4251.htm (2 of 6) [5/1/2006 9:58:50 AM] 17 48 -568 -135 162 -430 -422 172 -74 -577 -13 92 -534 -243 194 -355 -465 156 -81 -578 -64 139 -449 -384 193 -198 -538 110 -44 -577 -6 66 -552 -164 161 -460 -344 205 -281 -504 134 -28 -576 -118 156 -437 1.4.2.5.1. Background and Data http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/eda/section4/eda4251.htm (3 of 6) [5/1/2006 9:58:50 AM] [...]...1.4 .2. 5.1 Background and Data -381 20 0 -22 0 -540 83 11 -568 -160 1 72 -414 -408 188 - 125 -5 72 - 32 139 -4 92 - 321 20 5 -26 2 -504 1 42 -83 -574 0 48 -571 -106 137 -501 -26 6 190 -391 -406 194 -186 -553 83 -13 -577 -49 103 -515 -28 0 20 1 300 http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898 /handbook/ eda/section4/eda 425 1.htm (4 of 6) [5/1 /20 06 9:58:50 AM] 1.4 .2. 5.1 Background and Data -506 131 -45 -578 -80 138 -4 62 -361 20 1 -21 1... 45.7167 13. 129 2 2. 8563 0.5037 0.0749 0.0097 0.0011 0.0001 0.0000 SD(STAT) 10 .27 92 5 .29 96 3 .22 97 1.6351 0.7045 0 .27 33 0.09 82 0.0331 0.0106 0.00 32 Z -4.01 -2. 21 1 .20 0.70 0.70 18. 02 10.08 30.15 -0.01 311.40 STATISTIC = NUMBER OF RUNS UP OF LENGTH I OR MORE I 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 STAT 127 .0 64.0 30.0 13.0 9.0 8.0 3.0 2. 0 1.0 1.0 EXP(STAT) 166.5000 62. 2917 16.5750 3.4458 0.5895 0.0858 0.0109 0.00 12 0.0001... 0.7609 0 .29 24 0.10 42 0.0349 0.0111 0.0034 Z -5.94 0.38 3.91 5.37 11.05 27 .06 28 .67 57 .21 90.14 29 8.08 RUNS DOWN STATISTIC = NUMBER OF RUNS DOWN OF LENGTH EXACTLY I I 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 STAT 69.0 32. 0 11.0 6.0 5.0 2. 0 2. 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EXP(STAT) 104 .20 83 45.7167 13. 129 2 2. 8563 0.5037 0.0749 0.0097 0.0011 0.0001 0.0000 SD(STAT) 10 .27 92 5 .29 96 3 .22 97 1.6351 0.7045 0 .27 33 0.09 82 0.0331 0.0106 0.00 32 http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898 /handbook/ eda/section4/eda 425 2.htm... 0.0045 Z -5 .26 -3.39 0.38 1.85 5.01 17. 72 21.46 21 .30 -0.01 22 0.19 STATISTIC = NUMBER OF RUNS TOTAL OF LENGTH I OR MORE I 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 STAT 25 4.0 122 .0 56.0 28 .0 18.0 12. 0 5.0 2. 0 1.0 1.0 EXP(STAT) 333.0000 124 .5833 33.1500 6.8917 1.1790 0.1716 0. 021 7 0.0 024 0.00 02 0.0000 SD(STAT) 9.4110 6 .28 68 4.8561 2. 5154 1.0761 0.4136 0.1474 0.0494 0.0157 0.0047 Z -8.39 -0.41 4.71 8.39 15.63 28 .60 33.77... -361 20 1 -21 1 -554 32 74 -533 -23 5 187 -3 72 -4 42 1 82 -147 -566 25 68 -535 -24 4 194 -351 -463 174 - 125 -570 15 72 -550 -190 1 72 - 424 -385 198 -21 8 -536 96 http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898 /handbook/ eda/section4/eda 425 1.htm (5 of 6) [5/1 /20 06 9:58:50 AM] 1.4 .2. 5.1 Background and Data http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898 /handbook/ eda/section4/eda 425 1.htm (6 of 6) [5/1 /20 06 9:58:50 AM] 1.4 .2. 5 .2 Test Underlying Assumptions... http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898 /handbook/ eda/section4/eda 425 2.htm (7 of 9) [5/1 /20 06 9:58:51 AM] Z -3.43 -2. 59 -0.66 1. 92 6.38 7.04 20 .26 -0.03 -0.01 0.00 1.4 .2. 5 .2 Test Underlying Assumptions STATISTIC = NUMBER OF RUNS DOWN OF LENGTH I OR MORE I 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 STAT 127 .0 58.0 26 .0 15.0 9.0 4.0 2. 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EXP(STAT) 166.5000 62. 2917 16.5750 3.4458 0.5895 0.0858 0.0109 0.00 12 0.0001 0.0000 SD(STAT)... 1.7786 0.7609 0 .29 24 0.10 42 0.0349 0.0111 0.0034 Z -5.94 -0.97 2. 74 6.50 11.05 13.38 19.08 -0.03 -0.01 0.00 RUNS TOTAL = RUNS UP + RUNS DOWN STATISTIC = NUMBER OF RUNS TOTAL OF LENGTH EXACTLY I I 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 STAT 1 32. 0 66.0 28 .0 10.0 6.0 7.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 EXP(STAT) 20 8.4167 91.4333 26 .25 83 5.7 127 1.0074 0.1498 0.0193 0.0 022 0.00 02 0.0000 SD(STAT) 14.5370 7.4947 4.5674 2. 3 123 0.9963 0.3866... 3.659895 20 0 4 0.9378599E-01 % Point: 0.0000000E+00 0.7914 120 1.380357 2. 111936 2. 650676 3.883083 5.638597 0.9378599E-01 3 CONCLUSION (AT THE 5% LEVEL): THERE IS NO SHIFT IN VARIATION THUS: HOMOGENEOUS WITH RESPECT TO VARIATION In this case, the Levene test indicates that the standard deviations are significantly http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898 /handbook/ eda/section4/eda 425 2.htm (6 of 9) [5/1 /20 06 9:58:51... * RANGE = 0.8790000E+03 * * MEAN = -0.1774350E+03 * STAND DEV = 0 .27 73 322 E+03 * * MIDMEAN = -0.1797600E+03 * AV AB DEV = 0 .24 922 50E+03 * * MEDIAN = -0.1 620 000E+03 * MINIMUM = -0.5790000E+03 * * = * LOWER QUART = -0.4510000E+03 * * = * LOWER HINGE = -0.4530000E+03 * * = * UPPER HINGE = 0.9400000E+ 02 * * = * UPPER QUART = 0.9300000E+ 02 * * = * MAXIMUM = 0.3000000E+03 * ***********************************************************************... 0.0000000E+00 * ST WILK-SHA = -0.1883372E+ 02 * * = * UNIFORM PPCC = 0.9 925 535E+00 * * = * NORMAL PPCC = 0.9540811E+00 * * = * TUK -.5 PPCC = 0.7313794E+00 * * = * CAUCHY PPCC = 0.4408355E+00 * *********************************************************************** http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898 /handbook/ eda/section4/eda 425 2.htm (5 of 9) [5/1 /20 06 9:58:51 AM] 1.4 .2. 5 .2 Test Underlying Assumptions Location . 69.0 104 .20 83 10 .27 92 -3.43 2 32. 0 45.7167 5 .29 96 -2. 59 3 11.0 13. 129 2 3 .22 97 -0.66 4 6.0 2. 8563 1.6351 1. 92 5 5.0 0.5037 0.7045 6.38 6 2. 0 0.0749 0 .27 33 7.04 7 2. 0 0.0097 0.09 82 20 .26 8. 63.0 104 .20 83 10 .27 92 -4.01 2 34.0 45.7167 5 .29 96 -2. 21 3 17.0 13. 129 2 3 .22 97 1 .20 4 4.0 2. 8563 1.6351 0.70 5 1.0 0.5037 0.7045 0.70 6 5.0 0.0749 0 .27 33 18. 02 7 1.0 0.0097 0.09 82 10.08 . -5 72 -8 83 -541 -22 4 180 - 420 -374 20 1 -23 6 -531 83 27 -564 -1 12 131 -507 -25 4 199 -311 -495 143 -46 -579 -90 136 -4 72 -338 20 2 -28 7 -477 169 - 124 -568 1.4 .2. 5.1.