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Economic Development of Southeast Asia Ian Coxhead University of Wisconsin-Madison Overview Week 1: Early modern development Historical background – initial conditions Getting growth started: resources, industry, agriculture “Old style” global shocks: oil crisis, 1970s Income growth, poverty and distribution Week 2: Development since mid-1980s Post-Plaza Accord boom, bubble and bust Globalization, again: trade liberalization and FDI Enter the dragon: the rise of China Topics: human capital, Asian regional integration, macro policy Approach and assessment Lots of reading! Thinking about what we read: short midweek homeworks @ 10% Connections to data big research assignment, using SE Asian economic growth and development data @ 30% Just checking… end-of-week tests @ 20% Having your say Class participation @ 10% 1a Southeast Asia before the modern era Overview Why study “ancient” history? Precolonial SE Asia: the first globalization era Colonialism War, nationalism and revolution The region about 1970: a snapshot map Why study ancient history? Precolonial SEA has some remarkable similarities with contemporary times: Resource endowments relative to rest of world Natural resource abundance Importers of advanced technologies Trade relationships Esp predominance of China & Northeast Asia Vulnerability to world market shocks Susceptibility to radical political and religious ideas Of course, some differences too: Then: labor shortage; now, mainly labor abundance relative to rest of world Is history fate? map Precolonial SE Asia (~1000-1600 AD) Mainland, Java, Sumatra: centralized kingdoms with capitals astride navigable rivers Wealth based on local resource base and taxes on resource exports (rice, spices, specialty timbers) E.g Ayuthaya (Thailand): about 25% gov’t revenue from taxes on trade between hinterland and rest of world Major religions display strong centralizing tendencies Archipelago/Malay peninsula: decentralized political entities, capitals at coastal ports Wealth based on resource exports and entrepôt trade between Red Sea ports, India and China Spread of Islam (a decentralized religion) along maritime trade routes 10 ... assignment, using SE Asian economic growth and development data @ 30% Just checking… end-of-week tests @ 20% Having your say Class participation @ 10% 1a Southeast Asia before the modern... precolonial SE Asia Resources: land abundance, labor scarcity Trade: diversified; regional and global Econ structure: mainly diversified; subsistence-oriented; low-tech (no capital) “Southeast Asia. .. century to ~1950s) Econ motives for colonial rule Trade access to East Asia (Manila, Cochinchina as bases/entrepots) SE Asian natural resources (spices, timber, ag produce, minerals) Treaty