Realizing the problem's importance, I chose the topic "Russia-Ukraine conflict: Opportunities and challenges for Vietnam's logistics." In my thesis, I focus on researching the main eve
The urgent of the subject
The Russia-Ukraine conflict, ongoing for over two years, has significantly impacted the relations and lives of individuals in both nations Its repercussions extend globally, affecting economies and international relations far beyond the borders of Russia and Ukraine Despite various international meetings aimed at resolution, the conflict continues to pose substantial challenges for countries around the world.
The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has significantly affected global economies, leading to a notable rise in fuel and commodity prices, with Vietnam being no exception The country has experienced a sharp increase in gasoline prices over an extended period, reflecting the broader impacts of the war Additionally, while Russia and Ukraine are not Vietnam's primary trading partners, the logistics sector has faced challenges due to indirect repercussions from trading relationships with other nations.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has created opportunities for the Vietnamese economy and logistics sector, despite these countries not being Vietnam's largest partners This situation has indirectly boosted logistics revenues, and Vietnam remains optimistic about any positive economic signals A significant opportunity lies in the potential to reduce sea transportation time to Russia through the establishment of a new route.
Given the unpredictable nature of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the ongoing Covid-
In response to the 19 pandemic, Vietnam must promptly assess and formulate strategies for economic recovery A thorough analysis of the economic and political ramifications of the crisis is essential for developing an effective and timely response plan.
Realizing the problem's importance, I chose the topic "Russia-Ukraine conflict:
Vietnam's logistics industry faces both significant opportunities and challenges due to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine This research analyzes the key events of the conflict and the responses from Russia, Ukraine, and other stakeholders, highlighting their impacts on the Vietnamese economy It emphasizes the emerging opportunities for growth in logistics while also identifying the challenges that Vietnam is currently encountering and will likely face in the near future The study aims to offer solutions and policy recommendations for state management agencies to foster economic resilience and development in an increasingly volatile global environment.
Literature Review
Domestic studies
In the study titled "Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Influences, Opportunities, and Directions for Vietnam," author Le Dang Giap (2022) examines the impact of the conflict on the import and export dynamics between Vietnam and both countries, with a particular focus on the economic sector The research highlights both the positive and negative effects of the war and outlines three strategic directions for Vietnamese businesses to navigate this challenging landscape.
A study conducted by authors Nguyen Chien Thang, Hoang Xuan Trung, Nguyen Bich Thuan, Tran Dinh Hung, and Duong Thai Hau in 2022 evaluated the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the global economy The research highlights significant economic repercussions stemming from the ongoing conflict, emphasizing its influence on international markets and geopolitical stability.
The Vietnamese economy has been significantly affected by the global economic downturn, characterized by soaring oil prices, ongoing disruptions in supply chains, and the threat of high inflation across various nations A comprehensive analysis of the sanctions and embargoes imposed on Russia highlights their repercussions on the global economy, revealing both opportunities and challenges for Vietnam amidst these changes.
- In the research "Effects of the Russia - Ukraine conflict on energy security, food and the world economy: challenges and opportunities for Viet Nam's economy" by
In his 2023 study, Le Xuan Tung explored the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on global energy security, highlighting its role in driving up logistics costs in Vietnam The author also addressed the worldwide food shortages exacerbated by the war, while investigating import and export opportunities within Vietnam's key industries The central thesis of the research posits that, despite the economic challenges posed by the conflict, timely and strategic responses could unlock new markets and opportunities for the Vietnamese economy.
- The authors Pham Thi Thanh Binh and Vu Truong Son (2022) conducted "Vietnam's Economy with the Effect of Russia - Ukraine
The Russia-Ukraine conflict poses significant risks to Vietnam, impacting both short-term and long-term economic stability Although the direct effects may be minimal, the indirect consequences require careful attention As a traditional trading partner of both nations, Vietnam must leverage the benefits of its 15 Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with other countries to diversify its markets and mitigate risks associated with this conflict By strategically utilizing these opportunities, Vietnam can strengthen its economy amidst challenging import-export conditions.
- In the research "Increased gas and oil prices pushing up transportation costs - what solutions to help enterprises recover production and business," Ha Thi Tuyet
In his 2022 analysis, Minh explored the factors driving the continuous rise in oil prices and the subsequent impact on countries, businesses, and individuals The author proposed effective solutions for governments and companies to mitigate transportation costs and facilitate production recovery in the context of the new normal.
International research
- Following the research "Challenges and opportunities of air cargo sector in
Vietnam" by Huong Dieu Chu (2022), Russian aviation restrictions have struck
Vietnam's air transport industry is on the path to recovery, presenting both challenges and opportunities While the current situation may appear more negative, strategic improvements could allow the air freight sector to benefit from the broader logistics field However, increased logistics costs due to various surcharge fees and route changes are significant factors that need to be addressed.
In his seminal work "The Sociology of Conflict" (1904), George Simmel explored the definition of conflict and its social dimensions, establishing a foundational framework for contemporary research Simmel argued that effectively resolving conflicts can alleviate tension and hostility, ultimately facilitating future agreements.
- In "Parties and Issues in Conflict" by Jessie Bernard (1957), the researcher presented her viewpoint on conflict, which is a condition of incompatibility of interests or values
- Dennen, J.M.G van der's (2005) research on "The Sociobiology of
The article "Conflict" offers an in-depth analysis of social conflict perspectives throughout history, exploring its evolution and assessing it through various theoretical lenses, including economic theory, game theory, and public choice theory This comprehensive approach enhances the understanding of conflict, contributing valuable insights to the ongoing discourse surrounding this intricate subject.
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (2022) highlights three significant drawbacks to global maritime trade resulting from the Russia-Ukraine conflict: escalating shipping costs, increased food prices, and disrupted global value chains.
Research objectives
This article systematically outlines the theoretical framework of social conflict, focusing on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the responses from various stakeholders It also delves into the theoretical underpinnings of logistics, highlighting how different logistics elements have been impacted by the ongoing conflict.
Second, this research analyzes the opportunities and challenges the Vietnamese economy and logistics field is facing in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Third, provide solutions to take advantage of opportunities, address challenges and make policy recommendations for state management.
Object and scope of the study
The research object is the Russia-Ukraine conflict
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has significantly impacted global geopolitics, prompting varied responses from Russia, Ukraine, and other international stakeholders This situation has also influenced Vietnam's export-import activities, revealing both opportunities and challenges within the logistics sector Analyzing these dynamics is essential for understanding the broader implications for Vietnam's trade and economic strategies.
The article examines the evolution of the conflict, highlighting its initial signals in 2014, but focusing primarily on the significant escalation that began in February 2022, with an analysis extending to the first quarter of 2024 It presents three predictions regarding the conflict's trajectory in 2025 and offers recommendations and solutions for Vietnam in this context, looking ahead to 2030.
The article delves into the Russia-Ukraine conflict, highlighting its impact on global trade dynamics and the export-import activities over the years It further explores the implications of this conflict for Vietnam's logistics sector, identifying both opportunities and challenges that arise from shifting trade routes and market demands By analyzing these factors, the content provides valuable insights into how Vietnam can navigate the evolving landscape of international logistics in the context of geopolitical tensions.
Methodology
In the process of writing the topic, the author used a combination of many research methods, specifically as follows:
- Search and data collection methods: the author researches many related studies, then analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of those studies to combine and filter thoroughly to complete the thesis
This article employs a systematic classification method to analyze the Russia-Ukraine conflict, organizing various research articles, reports, and analyses into a coherent framework It explores the causes of the conflict, its developments, and the resulting impacts, while also proposing solutions to enhance the rigor and logical flow of the research.
This article examines the synthesis, analysis, and statistical comparison of data regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its implications for Vietnam By evaluating the relationships between the involved parties and Vietnam, the author aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of existing studies on this critical geopolitical issue.
The article discusses evaluation methods that analyze opportunities and challenges while assessing the current situation, strengths, and weaknesses of both the country and its businesses It proposes solutions and policy recommendations aimed at addressing difficulties and seizing emerging opportunities.
Thesis structure
In addition to the introduction, conclusion and list of references, the study consists of three chapters as follows:
CHAPTER I: THEORETICAL FOUNDATION OF RUSSIA - UKRAINE CONFLICT
CHAPTER 2: RUSSIA - UKRAINE CONFLICT: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES FOR VIETNAM’S LOGISTICS
THEORETICAL BASIS
Theoretical foundation of Russia-Ukraine conflict
The term "conflict," derived from the Latin word "conflictus," refers to a clash or opposition between incompatible forces in life In interpersonal interactions, conflict often evokes intense negative emotions and experiences for individuals or groups Various scholars offer differing interpretations of the concept of conflict.
Conflict emerges from intentional interactions between multiple parties in competitive environments As Jessie Bernard (1957) stated, "Conflict occurs when different parties pursue controversial and mutually exclusive goals or values."
Social conflict refers to conflict in which the parties are an aggregate of individuals, such as groups, organizations, communities, and crowds, rather than single individuals, as in role conflict
Social conflict is commonly understood as interactions where the methods employed by parties pursuing their goals may cause harm or injury According to Coser (1956), it is defined as "a struggle over values and claims to scarce status, power, and resources," where opponents aim to neutralize, injure, or eliminate each other This concept encompasses various social phenomena, including class, racial, religious, and communal conflicts, as well as riots, rebellions, revolutions, strikes, civil disorders, and protests.
Social conflict, as defined by sociologists, refers to the struggle between individuals or groups within a society, or even between nations Conflicts can emerge among various entities, including individuals, interest groups such as social classes, gender groups, organizations, political parties, and ethnic or religious communities.
1.1.1.2 The nature of social conflict
Social conflict serves as a fundamental driver of societal transformation, representing the peak of contradictions within a community It is defined by conflicting interests and viewpoints, often resulting in confrontations among individuals, groups, and social classes.
Social conflict represents the expression of contradictions within society, evolving into more intense disputes when left unresolved It serves as a mechanism for addressing these contradictions at particular moments As conflicts escalate, they often lead to significant disruptions, but once resolved, they facilitate transformation from one state to another This type of conflict occurs among various social factions, including class, ethnic, regional, religious, occupational, and age groups.
Social conflict refers to the clash of interests among individuals within social groups, manifesting in various forms such as opposition, disagreement, or disputes related to perceptions, attitudes, emotions, needs, and values In some instances, this conflict can escalate into armed confrontations.
When discussing social Conflict, researchers often start by distinguishing its nature
Conflicts often arise from the competition for limited resources or the need to redistribute them Additionally, they can emerge from efforts to establish or eliminate values, rules, and norms in interactions among involved parties Thus, conflict encompasses both cooperative and adversarial elements.
The structure of conflict can vary significantly, often resembling a zero-sum game, as defined in game theory In such scenarios, the gains of one party are directly balanced by the losses of another, exemplified by the competition for votes between two political parties, where one party's victories correspond to the other’s defeats Additionally, conflicts may also exhibit a negative payoff structure, where the winner's benefits are outweighed by the losses experienced by the loser.
Conflicts can serve a positive purpose when they lead to win-win outcomes for all parties involved In union-employer negotiations, employees strive for higher wages while ensuring that their demands do not hinder employers' ability to reinvest, which is crucial for future wage increases Conversely, employers seek to maintain a salary structure that is as low as possible, yet above the minimum threshold that employees can accept, ensuring the sustainability of business operations.
Thus, conflicts, according to win-win logic, will have two characteristics: both cooperative and conflictual b Conflict exists in many forms
Lewis Coser, a contemporary American sociologist, categorizes conflicts into realistic and non-realistic types, emphasizing that conflict can sometimes maintain social order and yield positive societal outcomes Realistic conflict arises when resistance groups utilize conflict as the most effective means to achieve their goals, ceasing hostilities if their objectives can be met without confrontation, as seen in worker negotiations for raises In contrast, non-realistic conflict occurs not from opposing goals but from a desire to alleviate tension or affirm identity, lacking specific outcomes Additionally, Ralf Dahrendorf, a modern German sociologist, further divides social conflicts into endogenous and exogenous types, with endogenous conflicts emerging from within a society, exemplified by racial tensions in America.
Exogenous conflicts, such as wars between countries, arise from various economic, cultural, and religious factors These conflicts can be categorized as "in-law" or "out-of-law." In-law conflicts occur within legal frameworks, like unions negotiating wage increases, while out-of-law conflicts involve attempts to impose new laws for specific benefits Although conflicts within the law are more common, extralegal conflicts, which happen less frequently, can also emerge when parties seek to enhance their influence or leadership roles.
Social conflicts can be categorized in various ways, including by scale, where they are classified as large, medium, or small Additionally, conflicts can be assessed at three levels: high-level, medium-level, and low-level Furthermore, conflicts can be distinguished by their nature, encompassing economic, political, cultural, ideological, religious, and ethnic dimensions.
In addition, in terms of form, conflict can be divided into land conflict, property conflict, awareness conflict, gender conflict and so on
In Vietnam, a remarkable 70% of conflicts in recent years stem from economic interests, particularly surrounding land and housing issues These disputes over ownership, possession, use, and inheritance rights have significant real-world effects, impacting the lives of owners, workers, ethnic groups, and religious communities As these groups navigate the complexities of economic interests and the distribution of benefits from land and natural resources, it is crucial to foster empathy and concern for those affected.
The world faces a myriad of economic, political, ethnic, and religious conflicts, with current religious tensions becoming increasingly complex and unpredictable We are witnessing the emergence of a new type of conflict, while traditional class struggles have evolved Additionally, the potential for ethnic and religious conflicts to escalate remains a significant concern.
Theoretical foundation of logistics
Logistics is defined by UNCTAD as the management of global supply chains, encompassing a range of services offered by logistics companies These services include managing customs procedures, establishing assembly and manufacturing plants, groupage, warehousing, and transportation, along with the selection of carriers and tariff negotiations Additionally, value-added services such as warranty support management, return and repair, and global logistics services are integral to the logistics process.
According to the European Commission, logistics encompasses more than merely planning and managing freight transport; it involves integrating various transport activities into seamless door-to-door supply chains, which is essential for enhancing the efficiency of freight transport operations.
The 2005 Vietnam Commercial Law defines "logistics services" rather than logistics itself, as outlined in Article 233 This article states that logistics services encompass commercial activities where traders manage various stages, including receiving goods, transportation, warehousing, customs procedures, and other related services, all performed in accordance with customer agreements for compensation.
Logistics involves the strategic planning, execution, and management of transporting and storing raw materials, semi-finished goods, and finished products, along with the associated information flow from origin to final consumption The primary objective of logistics is to fulfill customer demands efficiently and economically.
Logistics services are subject to the coordination and management of the law Therefore, it is controlled by specific provisions in the 2005 commercial law Basic characteristics of logistics:
- Is the service with the highest perfection
- Play an important role in the business
- Performed on the basis of the contract of the parties
1.2.3 The role of logistics in the economy
As the global economy increasingly shifts towards globalization and regionalization, logistics has become a vital component of national economic development It encompasses a series of interconnected activities that form an essential link in the production, distribution, and circulation of goods The smooth and synchronous growth of the economy relies heavily on the effective operation of the logistics chain Moreover, robust logistics capabilities enhance a country's economic integration, enabling access to global markets and consumers efficiently Low logistics costs are crucial for export promotion and economic growth strategies, while also facilitating domestic consumers' access to international products.
Enhancing logistics activities significantly boosts national competitiveness, which encompasses the institutions, policies, and factors influencing a country's efficiency and productivity An effective economy maximizes the use of limited resources, and logistics serves as a vital link within the Global Value Chain, facilitating supply, production, circulation, and distribution while broadening market access The advancement of logistics optimizes the production, circulation, and distribution of raw materials, semi-finished, and finished products in terms of time, quality, and cost Furthermore, a nation's logistics development and associated costs play a crucial role in attracting foreign investment.
International trade involves the exchange of goods, services, and capital across borders, akin to domestic trade The primary motivation for all parties is to obtain something scarce by trading surplus resources, which can include physical goods, services, or skills While historical exchanges often relied on barter, modern trade typically involves monetary transactions, yet the core principle remains that both parties should benefit from the trade.
International trade plays a crucial role in the production of everyday items, exemplified by the various global sources of computer components For instance, oil from the Middle East is essential for plastic manufacturing, while component production often takes place in China Software development may occur in India, with gold sourced from Africa, and patents typically filed in the USA This interconnectedness highlights the interdependence of countries in the global economy.
Import and export activities involve the movement of goods and services across international borders, where imports bring products from foreign countries into the domestic market, and exports send domestically produced goods and services to other nations.
Importing enables countries to access products that are scarce or unavailable locally, providing consumers and businesses with a wider selection of higher-quality, cost-effective, or uniquely featured goods compared to domestic options Typical imports encompass raw materials, food items, consumer products, machinery, and production inputs.
Exporting enables countries to promote and sell their locally produced goods to international consumers and businesses, thereby broadening the customer base for domestic industries beyond their home markets Commonly exported items include manufactured goods, raw materials, agricultural products, and services in sectors such as tourism, finance, and transportation.
Import and export activities are essential to international trade, driving economic growth and enabling countries to leverage their comparative advantages This exchange of goods and services fosters specialization and economies of scale in production Additionally, governments regulate these activities to implement economic policies that align with national priorities.
Logistics performance index is a national logistics capacity index, researched and published by the World Bank in a report called “Connecting to the competition - logistics industry in the economy”
To enhance its logistics industry, a country must modernize its border management systems and revise transportation policy provisions Additionally, it is crucial to invest in relevant commercial infrastructure to support these improvements.
Currently, there are six evaluation criteria in the LPI:
- Infrastructure: the infrastructure related to the quality of commerce and transport (ports, railways, roads, information technology)
- Competence logistics: capacity and quality of logistics services (transport operators, customs broker)
- International shipments: easy level when arranging for shipments with competitive prices
- Tracking & tracing: the ability to track & trace shipments
- Customs service: is the effect of the goods clearance process For example, speed, simplicity, and computation are in advance of other procedures
- Timeliness: timeliness of shipments arriving at their destination
Logistics costs consist of six primary components: transportation, customer service, warehousing, information and order processing, handling, and storage costs, as identified by Coyle John et al (2003).
Logistics costs, as defined by Engblom et al (2012), are expressed as a percentage of turnover and encompass six key components: warehousing, inventory, operations, packaging, transportation, and indirect logistics activities.
SOLUTIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
CHAPTER I: THEORETICAL BASIS 1.1 Theoretical foundation of Russia-Ukraine conflict
The term "conflict," derived from the Latin word "conflictus," refers to a clash or opposition between incompatible forces in life In interpersonal interactions, conflict is often linked to negative and intense emotional experiences Scholars have varying interpretations of what constitutes conflict.
Conflict emerges from intentional interactions between two or more parties in a competitive environment As Jessie Bernard (1957) noted, "Conflict arises when different closely positioned parties pursue controversial and mutually exclusive goals or values."
Social conflict refers to conflict in which the parties are an aggregate of individuals, such as groups, organizations, communities, and crowds, rather than single individuals, as in role conflict
Social conflict involves interactions where parties pursue their goals in ways that may cause harm or injury, as defined by Coser (1956) as "a struggle over values and claims to scarce status, power, and resources," aiming to neutralize or eliminate rivals This concept encompasses various social phenomena, including class, racial, religious, and communal conflicts, as well as riots, rebellions, revolutions, strikes, civil disorders, and protests.
Social conflict, as defined by sociologists, refers to the struggle between individuals, groups, or nations within a society Conflicts can emerge among various entities, including individuals, interest groups such as social classes, gender groups, political parties, and ethnic or religious communities.
1.1.1.2 The nature of social conflict
Social conflict serves as a fundamental driver of societal transformation, representing the peak of developmental contradictions within a community It is marked by conflicting interests and viewpoints, often leading to confrontations among individuals, groups, and social classes.
Social conflict arises from contradictions within society and, when intensified, can escalate into significant disputes It serves as a mechanism for addressing these contradictions at specific moments High levels of conflict can lead to outbreaks, and once resolved, they facilitate transformation from one state to another This type of conflict occurs among various groups, including class, ethnic, regional, religious, occupational, and age groups.
Social conflict occurs when individuals within a social group have conflicting interests, leading to opposition, disagreement, or disputes regarding perceptions, attitudes, emotions, needs, and values This conflict can manifest in various forms, including armed clashes.
When discussing social Conflict, researchers often start by distinguishing its nature
Conflict often arises from the need to acquire or redistribute limited resources Additionally, it can serve to eliminate outdated values and establish new norms or rules for interaction among involved parties Thus, conflict embodies both cooperative and competitive elements.
The structure of conflict can vary significantly, often resembling a zero-sum game, where one party's gains are precisely equal to the other party's losses, as illustrated in a political race for votes In such scenarios, the votes gained by one political party directly correspond to the votes lost by its opponent Additionally, conflicts may also exhibit a negative payoff game structure, where the winner's gains are outweighed by the loser's losses, highlighting the complexities inherent in competitive situations.
Conflicts can serve as a constructive framework when all parties involved achieve favorable outcomes, exemplified by the interactions between unions and employers Employees strive for increased wages while ensuring that their demands do not jeopardize the employers' ability to reinvest, which is crucial for future salary increases Conversely, employers seek to maintain a salary structure that is as low as possible, yet still above a level that employees can tolerate, ensuring the sustainability of business operations.
Thus, conflicts, according to win-win logic, will have two characteristics: both cooperative and conflictual b Conflict exists in many forms
Lewis Coser, a contemporary American sociologist, classifies conflicts into realistic and non-realistic categories, emphasizing that conflict can positively contribute to social order Realistic conflicts arise when opposing groups use conflict as a means to achieve specific goals, halting the struggle if their objectives can be met through negotiation or bargaining, as seen in labor disputes In contrast, non-realistic conflicts emerge not from opposing goals but from a desire to alleviate tension or affirm identity, often lacking a clear aim for tangible outcomes Ralf Dahrendorf, a modern German sociologist, further categorizes social conflicts into endogenous and exogenous types, with endogenous conflicts originating within a society, exemplified by racial tensions in America.
Shiite Muslims often encounter exogenous conflicts, which are disputes arising between different societies, such as wars between countries, driven by various economic, cultural, and religious factors These conflicts can be categorized into "in-law" and "out-of-law" conflicts In-law conflicts, like union negotiations for wage increases, occur within legal frameworks, while out-of-law conflicts arise when one party seeks to impose new laws for their benefit For instance, when a union aims to enhance its influence on a company's leadership, it may engage in conflicts that can be either legal or extralegal Generally, conflicts within the law are more common, whereas extralegal conflicts tend to occur sporadically.
Social conflicts can be categorized in various ways, including their scale, level, and nature They can be classified as large, medium, or small conflicts based on scale, and further divided into high-level, medium-level, and low-level conflicts Additionally, conflicts can be characterized by their nature, encompassing economic, political, cultural, ideological, religious, and ethnic dimensions.
In addition, in terms of form, conflict can be divided into land conflict, property conflict, awareness conflict, gender conflict and so on
In Vietnam, a significant 70% of conflicts in recent years have stemmed from economic interests, particularly surrounding land and housing issues These disputes over ownership, possession, use rights, and property inheritance have profound real-world consequences, impacting the lives of owners, workers, ethnic groups, and religious communities As these groups navigate the complexities of economic interests and the distribution of benefits from land and natural resources, it is crucial to foster empathy and concern for their struggles.
The world is facing a variety of conflicts, including economic, political, ethnic, and religious tensions Today's religious conflicts are particularly intricate and unpredictable, marking the emergence of a new conflict paradigm While class conflicts have evolved, ethnic and religious disputes remain precarious and are at risk of escalation.