Global political risks and the opportunities, challenges for Vietnam’s economy

Global political risks and the opportunities, challenges for Vietnam’s economy.Global political risks and the opportunities, challenges for Vietnam’s economy.Global political risks and the opportunities, challenges for Vietnam’s economy.Global political risks and the opportunities, challenges for Vietnam’s economy.Global political risks and the opportunities, challenges for Vietnam’s economy.Global political risks and the opportunities, challenges for Vietnam’s economy.Global political risks and the opportunities, challenges for Vietnam’s economy.Global political risks and the opportunities, challenges for Vietnam’s economy.Global political risks and the opportunities, challenges for Vietnam’s economy.Global political risks and the opportunities, challenges for Vietnam’s economy.Global political risks and the opportunities, challenges for Vietnam’s economy.Global political risks and the opportunities, challenges for Vietnam’s economy.Global political risks and the opportunities, challenges for Vietnam’s economy.Global political risks and the opportunities, challenges for Vietnam’s economy.Global political risks and the opportunities, challenges for Vietnam’s economy.Global political risks and the opportunities, challenges for Vietnam’s economy.Global political risks and the opportunities, challenges for Vietnam’s economy.Global political risks and the opportunities, challenges for Vietnam’s economy.Global political risks and the opportunities, challenges for Vietnam’s economy.Global political risks and the opportunities, challenges for Vietnam’s economy.Global political risks and the opportunities, challenges for Vietnam’s economy.Global political risks and the opportunities, challenges for Vietnam’s economy.Global political risks and the opportunities, challenges for Vietnam’s economy.Global political risks and the opportunities, challenges for Vietnam’s economy.Global political risks and the opportunities, challenges for Vietnam’s economy.Global political risks and the opportunities, challenges for Vietnam’s economy.Global political risks and the opportunities, challenges for Vietnam’s economy.Global political risks and the opportunities, challenges for Vietnam’s economy.Global political risks and the opportunities, challenges for Vietnam’s economy.Global political risks and the opportunities, challenges for Vietnam’s economy.Global political risks and the opportunities, challenges for Vietnam’s economy.Global political risks and the opportunities, challenges for Vietnam’s economy.

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING FOREIGN TRADE UNIVERSITY *** MASTER THESIS GLOBAL POLITICAL RISKS AND THE OPPORTUNITIES, CHALLENGES FOR VIETNAM’S ECONOMY Specialization: International Trade Policy and Law DUONG THI THU PHUONG Hanoi - 2023 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING FOREIGN TRADE UNIVERSITY MASTER THESIS GLOBAL POLITICAL RISKS AND THE OPPORTUNITIES, CHALLENGES FOR VIETNAM’S ECONOMY Major: International Economics Specialization: International Trade Policy and Law Code: 8310106 Fullname: Duong Thi Thu Phuong Supervisor: Assoc.Prof.Dr Dao Ngoc Tien Hanoi - 2023 i STATEMENT OF ORIGINAL AUTHORSHIP I certify that I am the only author of this master’s thesis and that all information and findings presented herein are accurate In addition, I guarantee that all references to implementation aids in the master’s thesis have appropriately identified their origins Hanoi, 08 September 2023 Author Duong Thi Thu Phuong ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT First and foremost, I would like to express my deepest appreciation to my supervisor, Assoc.Prof.Dr Dao Ngoc Tien for his unwavering encouragement and insightful guidance during the writing of my master’s thesis During the past five months, I could complete my thesis excellently thanks to his fascinating guidance and suggestions In addition to my advisor, I want to express my gratitude to all of the professors, lecturers as well as assistants at Foreign Trade University, particularly those in the Master Program of International Trade Policy and Law (MITPL), who invested so much of themselves in teaching us The knowledge I have gained through this process will not only help me finish my thesis, but will also give me the self-assurance I need to further my profession in the real world I also want to give a shout out to the people closest to me - my family, friends, and classmates - for all the love and support they showed me while I wrote one of the most significant pieces of my life Author Duong Thi Thu Phuong iii TABLE OF CONTENTS STATEMENT OF ORIGINAL AUTHORSHIP i ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ii LISTS OF ABBREVIATIONS v LIST OF FIGURES vi LIST OF TABLES vii ABSTRACT viii INTRODUCTION .1 The significance of thesis Literature review Research purpose and research questions Scope of the research 5 Research methodology 6 Structure of the thesis CHAPTER 1: THEORETICAL ISSUES AND CURRENT GLOBAL POLITICAL RISKS 1.1 Some theoretical issues 1.1.1 Definition of risk 1.1.2 Overview of political risk 1.2 The current global political risks 16 1.2.1 The Russia-Ukraine conflict 17 1.2.2 The US-China relation’s tension 25 CHAPTER 2: THE INFLUENCE OF GLOBAL POLITICAL RISK ON THE WORLD AND VIETNAM’S ECONOMY 34 2.1 The influence of the current global political issues on the world economy 34 2.1.1 The influence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the world economy 34 2.1.2 The influence of the US-China trade war on the world economy 39 2.2 The influence of the current global political issues in Vietnam’s economy 44 2.2.1 The influence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in Vietnam’s economy 44 2.2.2 The influence of the US-China trade war in Vietnam’s economy 51 2.3 General review .56 iv CHAPTER 3: THE OPPORTUNITIES, CHALLENGES AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR VIETNAM’S ECONOMY 58 3.1 The Vietnam’s Foreign policy and political risk index 58 3.2 The opportunities for Vietnam’s economy in the global political risks 61 3.2.1 The opportunities for Vietnam’s trade sector 61 3.2.2 The opportunities for Vietnam’s investment sector .64 3.3 The challenges for Vietnam’s economy in the global political risks .66 3.3.1 The challenges for Vietnam’s trade sector .66 3.3.2 The challenges for Vietnam’s investment sector 68 3.4 Recommendations for Vietnam’s economy in the context of global political risks 69 3.4.1 Recommendations for Vietnamese government .70 3.4.2 Recommendations for Vietnamese enterprises 72 CONCLUSION 74 SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH ix REFERENCES x v LISTS OF ABBREVIATIONS AI Artificial Intelligence CPI Consumer Price Index DPR and LPR Donetsk People’s Republic Luhansk People’s Republic EU The European Union ICRG International Country Risk Guide IMF International Monetary Fund MNEs Multinational Enterprises NATO The North Atlantic Treaty Organization OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development SWIFT Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications UK The United Kingdom US The United States FDI Foreign Direct Investment vi LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1: Gas consumption in the EU 35 Figure 2.2: The EU’s diversification away from Russian gas 36 Figure 2.3: Commodity prices have diverged recently .37 Figure2.4: The inflation in the world from 2021, projections for 2025 38 Figure 2.5: Global growth has lost momentum .41 Figure 2.6: Global trade growth has slowed .42 Figure 2.7: Weaker investment has contributed to the trade slowdown 43 Figure 2.8: Moderate headline inflation is expected to persist in many advanced and emerging-market economies .43 Figure 2.9: Export - Import turnover between Vietnam and Russia from 2019 to 2022 45 Figure 2.10: Export - Import turnover between Vietnam and Russia in months of 2022 46 Figure 2.11: Export - Import turnover between Vietnam and Ukraine from 2019 to 2022 47 Figure 2.12: Export - Import turnover between Vietnam and Ukraine in months of 2022 48 Figure 2.13: The US general imports from Vietnam, by major industry or commodity sectors, 2015-19 (million dollars) 51 Figure 2.14: The US total exports to Vietnam, by major industry/commodity sectors, 2015-19 (million dollars) .52 Figure 2.15: Vietnam’s import and export with China (Unit: Million USD) 54 vii LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1: Global growth is projected to slow further 34 Table 2.2: Global growth remains weak 40 Table 2.3: U.S general imports from Vietnam by industry/commodity sectors, 2015-19 (million dollars) 51 Table 2.4: U.S total exports to Vietnam by industry/commodity sectors, 2015-19 (million dollars) 53 Table 3.1: EU open-door commitments for Vietnam’s agricultural commodity groups 62 viii ABSTRACT Nowadays, tension between great powers is increasing, leading to the unpredictable change of policy to the rest of the world Therefore, global political risk is one of the most serious risks which has a significant influence on a country’s economy, causing instable business environment for enterprises Especially, for Vietnam, it is a small country, relatively dependent on the big countries’ economy due to the regionally and globally deep integration The Master thesis with topic “Global political risks and the opportunities, challenges for Vietnam’s economy” concentrates on analyzing the two biggest global political risks which are the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the US-China relation’s tension because the events are happening and these countries have close relations with Vietnam in many different aspects such as: military, politics, especially economics The Russia-Ukraine conflict has happened more than one year since 2022, causing serious consequences to the world’s economy including: the decrease of the global growth, higher inflation, energy crisis and supply chain disruption The USChina relation’s tension has significantly escalated from the US president Donald Trump imposed a high tax on Chinese export products, leading to the trade war between two countries Similarly, the trade war caused some impacts on global economy, especially for trade and investment All both risks have direct and indirect influence on Vietnam’s economy in some main sector such as: trade, foreign investment, supply chain disruption When the Russia-Ukraine happened, declining trade turnover as well as investment’s stagnation between Vietnam and two countries due to payment, shipping difficulties Whereas, for the US-China trade war, Vietnam can get some benefits in a short time such as: increasing trade to both countries, attracting more foreign investment In general, Vietnam’s economy can not only get the good opportunities but also face some challenges from the global political risks Therefore, from the analysis, the author also gives some recommendations for both Vietnam’s government and enterprises to seize the chances as well as overcome the difficulties Key word: Global political risk, Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US-China trade war, Vietnam’s economy 67 to the fallout from these penalties Russia has been excluded from the international payment messaging system known as SWIFT, western nations have effectively frozen $630 billion worth of Russia’s foreign reserves, and a number of significant banks and other financial institutions have frozen Russian assets located in other countries totaling around $3 billion The removal of Russia from the SWIFT system in particular has caused a nightmare for Vietnamese companies who export goods and products to Russia These companies now struggle to make and receive payments from Russian organizations due to the fact that Russia is no longer a participant in the SWIFT system - Difficulties in shipping As a result of the restrictions, a number of Vietnamese shipping lines have chosen not to take orders to carry products from Vietnam to Russia Specifically, companies who get their raw materials from Russia or Ukraine run the danger of experiencing severe supply shortages as a direct result of the conflict Additionally, the aviation sector in Vietnam might potentially suffer as a direct result of the higher cost of oil being passed on to consumers In terms of the US-China relation’s tension The main reason for the US-China relationship’s tension is to become the dominant country in the world Both countries are looking for ways to improve their influence in the region and globe in different fields including: politics, military, especially economics Therefore, even though the US-China trade war was tending to cool down, the US and China markets are still relatively risky for each other, leading to some disadvantages for Vietnam’s trade: Firstly, the risk of a trade balance deficit: In order to deal with the export’s problems to the US, China is likely to introduce dumping policies, increase exports of goods to neighboring countries including Vietnam to maintain productivity Because Vietnam’s import turnover from China is quite high, this may cause Vietnam’s imports to increase sharply, leading to an increasing disparity in the trade 68 balance between Vietnam and China Therefore, the risk of a trade balance deficit will be higher and seriously affect the economy of Vietnam Secondly, risks from the origin of goods: Due to the purpose of avoiding the US measures imposed on China, this country’s enterprises have increased their export activities to Vietnam, causing Vietnam to face the risk of becoming a transit point for Chinese goods exported to the US Specifically, Chinese goods will find ways to cheat their origin, bearing labels from Vietnam instead of China For example, during the US-China trade war, Vietnam Customs has discovered that a number of Chinese companies, including textiles, seafood, agricultural products, ceramic tiles, steel, aluminum and wood have exported goods to Vietnam, applying for certificates of origin in Vietnam illegally, then changed the labels on product packages to export to the US, Europe and Japan This action will make Vietnamese goods subject to high tax sanctions from the US Previously, the US imposed a very high anti-dumping tax, up to 199.76% and a special tax rate of up to 256.44% on Vietnamese steel products after concluding that Vietnamese steel originated from China 13 One of the biggest concerns of the import-export industry today is that the US will conduct strict inspection and review of products imported from Vietnam, making it difficult for Vietnam’s goods to be exported to the US Thirdly, the pressure of commodity competition increases: With the short-term opportunities created by the US-China relation’s tension, not only Vietnam but also other countries will try to seize the opportunity Therefore, Vietnamese goods will have more competitors to export to the US In addition, when exports to the US are limited due to the impact of tariffs, China will promote the consumption of domestic goods, Vietnamese goods therefore have to compete with Chinese domestic goods 3.3.2 The challenges for Vietnam’s investment sector When the US-China relation is more and more tense, leading to the political environment in two countries is not stable for investment as the US-China trade war 13 Ministry of Industry and Trade, 2019 69 situation Therefore, in this case, Vietnam is expected to be one of the places to receive investment flows from China On the one hand, this capital inflow creates new sources of exports for Vietnam, but on the other hand also leads to a series of risks, especially when FDI flows into Vietnam increase sharply from Chinese enterprises Therefore, Vietnam can face with some risks as below: Firstly, the risk of increasing competition in the domestic market, making it difficult for Vietnamese enterprises to produce and export to the US market Secondly, the risk of Vietnam becoming a “backyard” for Chinese manufacturing activities to export to the US Thirdly, the standards and tools to control environmental protection activities of foreign enterprises in Vietnam are not good, leading to the risk of large environmental pollution from Chinese enterprises Fourthly, Vietnamese labor is cheap and the investment capital selection policies are not tight, Vietnam may fall into the processing trap of Chinese enterprises, making Vietnam continue to export low value-added goods to the US market Fifthly, capital investment and human resource transfer by Chinese enterprises put pressure on Vietnam to control national security and defense, which can cause political - diplomatic problems with the US and influence the commercial relationship between the two sides Therefore, when the capital from China to Vietnam is not well controlled in the context of the US-China relation’s tension, Vietnam may suffer more damage than seize the opportunities 3.4 Recommendations for Vietnam’s economy in the context of global political risks There are still many existing issues for Vietnam’s economy in the current global context On the one hand, the global political risks can bring some opportunities to develop Vietnam’s economy with trade growth to other countries as well as more opportunities for foreign investment in Vietnam However, on the 70 other hand, the risks are considered as factors creating more challenges for Vietnam’s economy Therefore, looking for effective measures to seize the opportunities and overcome the challenges is extremely necessary in the stage 3.4.1 Recommendations for Vietnamese government In the context of deepening integration and globalization as well as tension’s escalation among countries, diplomatic policy should be a key factor Vietnam’s diplomacy continues to carry out a new mission, contributing to the creation and maintenance of a peaceful, stable environment for the nation’s security; as well as finding new ways to promote international cooperation, to create favorable conditions for economic construction and development that enhance the country’s position and potential It is not denied that the government plays an important role in making policy to develop the nation’s economy Therefore, when there are global political risks, leading to both advantages and disadvantages to Vietnam, the government should have had policies, measures to take advantage of opportunities as well as resolve challenges 3.4.1.1 Some recommendations for Vietnam’s trade Firstly, to minimize negative impacts from global political risks on Vietnam’s trade, Vietnam must focus on expanding market access Vietnam has participated in many free trade agreements (FTAs) which bring many benefits related to eliminating taxes on Vietnamese goods Therefore, in this way, Vietnam will have the opportunity to increase exports to other markets as well as decrease the dependence on markets affected by political tension Therefore, The Ministry of Foreign Affairs needs to expand and deepen relations and create intertwined economic interests with bilateral and multilateral partners Paying attention to the contents of promoting economic cooperation and economic diplomacy in formulating and implementing projects to develop relations with partners, especially neighboring countries, major countries, strategic partners, comprehensive partners and other important partners 71 Secondly, The General Department of Customs must control the origin of goods in order to prevent them at border gates and at customs; prevent smuggling of goods; and tighten to monitor the import - export product in the region Along with that, The Ministry of Industry and Trade and The General Department of Customs also need to carefully study Chinese goods that can be imported into Vietnam In case China’s exports to the US are restricted, this country will transfer goods to Vietnam, then exported to the US market with the label of goods from Vietnam Thirdly, the State Bank should make a payment risk management strategy In order to alleviate payment issues created by banks, the State Bank must immediately advise businesses engaging in import and export operations on methods of payment and precautions to take when signing contracts when Russia is excluded from the SWIFT international payment system Besides, to aid domestic firms in keeping their legal translations with Russian partners, the State Bank must also investigate the development of payment channels with Russian banks and businesses, as well as via non-embargoed ways 3.4.1.2 Some recommendations for foreign investment in Vietnam Firstly, The Ministry of Planning and Investment build policies to speed up the improvement of the business investment environment In the future, there will be more opportunities for Vietnam’s investment sector, therefore, to take advantage of the opportunities, Vietnam needs to have a more favorable environment compared to others such as India to attract foreign investors effectively: - Review and timely adjust foreign investment policies to suit and keep up with fluctuations and uncertainties of the global economy and changes in FDI attraction strategies of countries around the world; 72 - Build a competitive advantage in attracting foreign investment with investment conditions, a transparent and predictable legal system on the basis of developing a globally connected market economy by the rules of law - Step up the implementation of public investment projects to improve socioeconomic infrastructures, create the most favorable conditions for foreign investors in investing and implementing FDI projects - Be active and proactive in digital transformation, application of modern technology, minimizing administrative procedures, time and cost of accessing and implementing legal regulations and laws, creating favorable conditions for foreign investors Secondly, The Ministry of Planning and Investment needs to specify a list of industries and fields that need to attract foreign investment and sectors that can only be implemented by domestic investors In particular, regulations and standards are developed as a new filter to select foreign investors with advanced, environmentally friendly, capable and resistant technologies to maintain and ensure national security 3.4.2 Recommendations for Vietnamese enterprises Firstly, Vietnamese enterprises should update information actively Nowadays, with the complicated relations among countries, leading to the unpredictable and rapid changes of policies, strategies, Vietnamese companies need to update relevant information on the policies of countries to promptly respond appropriately Moreover, not only information from foreign partners, the enterprises need to find out Vietnam’s policy in specific situations to accompany the State in the process of dealing with bad fluctuations from these political risks Enterprises should actively participate with consulting agencies and policy research agencies to promptly have a voice so that policies are in harmony with the market and in accordance with market rules Secondly, enterprises need to diversify markets and supply and payment currencies; Actively negotiate with partners on freight plans and business methods At the same time, businesses need to review contracts and legal documents to 73 ensure proactiveness in case of disputes In addition, enterprises participating in export activities should note the application of measures to prevent risks in payment when signing and performing contracts Thirdly, actively exploiting the benefits from signed FTAs, including many important markets, can offset the decline caused by the trade war Although Vietnam signed a lot of FTAs, in facts, Vietnam’s cannot make use of FTAs The businesses must always update new information, train staff on how to approach and make full use of FTAs; ready to improve products and processes to meet regulations of international markets and qualify to benefit from trade agreements Fourthly, enhance the quality of goods, diversify forms and models, with suitable prices to increase the competitiveness of domestic manufacturing enterprises and export enterprises; Oriented to improve its import-export strategy towards sustainability, in which export growth is both in breadth and depth The political and economic situation in the world is evolving rapidly and unpredictably Unprecedented fierce sanctions and retaliation, so policies and solutions must be fast, adjusted as soon as problems arise In the current context, in addition to medium-term policies, it is necessary to have short-term policies, practical solutions, ensuring transparency, associated with the requirements of real life 74 CONCLUSION With the complex of relations among countries, the global political risks are the topics concerned by countries In my thesis, I focus on analyzing the two biggest political risks including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the US-China relation’s tension because the issues have a significant influence on Vietnam’s economy The two global political risks impact considerably on Vietnam’s economy Particularly, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused the significant decline of import- export turnover between Vietnam and two countries In 2022, two-way trade between Vietnam and Russia reached around $3.5 billion, of which Vietnam’s exports to Russia reached $1.5 billion, decreasing by 46.9%, and imported about $2 billion from this market, declining by 0.8% compared to the same period in 2021 Similarly, The Vietnam’s import turnover from Ukraine went down dramatically from $375 million to $178 million in 2022 Although the Russia-Ukraine conflict has badly affected Vietnam’s economy, the US-China trade war affected Vietnam’s economy in a good way with the higher trade between Vietnam and the US-China as well as the increase of FDI inflows in Vietnam in short term From the analysis of the economic effects, the author gives some opportunities and challenges for Vietnam’s economy including mainly two economic aspects: trade sector and investment sector Firstly, in terms of opportunities, the RussiaUkraine conflict gives the opportunities for Vietnam’s agricultural export to the European market as well as the opportunity to diversify import and export markets Besides, when the US and China reduce dependence on each other due to escalating tension, Vietnam can boost the import-export turnover to the two countries Moreover, both two events make investors shift their factories, companies to other safer countries due to political instability in some countries This gives chances to Vietnam to attract foreign investment because Vietnam is a promising market in the complicated context Secondly, in terms of challenges, while the Russia-Ukraine conflict cause difficulty in trading due to payment and shipping, the US-China relation’s tension can bring some disadvantages for Vietnam’s trade such as: the risk of a trade balance deficit, risks from the origin of goods, the higher pressure of 75 commodity competition Besides, When the US-China relation is more and more tense, leading to a series of risks for Vietnam’s investment, including: the risk of increasing competition in the domestic market, the risk of Vietnam becoming a “backyard” for Chinese manufacturing activities to export to the US, the risk of large environmental pollution from Chinese enterprises, the processing trap of Chinese enterprises, political - diplomatic problems with the US The author also gives some recommendations for the government and businesses to seize the opportunities effectively as well as overcome the challenges Particularly, in terms of the government, the research gives three recommendations for The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, The General Department of Customs, The State Bank to overcome the challenges of trade sector For investment sector, the research also gives two recommendations for The Ministry of Planning and Investment to develop the sector in the future In terms of enterprises, there are four suggestions to resolve the disadvantages in the context In general, enterprises needs to actively update information in every events as well as prepare for solutions The thesis still has some limitations when the thesis only focuses on the two global political risks while in fact there are many different global political risks Moreover, the thesis methodology is only a qualitative approach, therefore it cannot express the impacts of the global political risk on Vietnam’s economy Therefore, the author can continue the other topic’s aspects in the future research to solve the limited issues ix SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH No Author’s name Duong Thi Year Journal, Scientific research’s title Publisher/No, Page / Conference 2023 Xung đột Nga-Ukraine: ảnh Hội thảo Xu hướng hưởng vấn đề đặt quan hệ quốc tế Thu Phuong kinh tế Việt Nam bối cảnh mới, Viện Kinh tế Chính trị giới Than Thi Hanh 2022 – Duong Thi Kinh nghiệm Vương Tạp chí Giáo dục Quốc Anh hợp tác lý luận, số 346, sở giáo dục đại học doanh tr.58-64 nghiệp – Bài học cho Việt Thu Phuong Nam Duong Thi 2022 Thu Phuong Sustainable Economic ICGE FTU-Nantes Development with Wineco's International clean vegetable supply chain Conference model Duong Thi Thu Phuong 2021 A study of University – Diễn đàn Quốc tế Industry collaboration in hóa Giáo dục đại England and implication for học lần thứ năm Vietnam (FIHE5) Notes x REFERENCES BOOKS McKellar, R, A short guide to political risk, Gower Publishing, Ltd , 2010 Mohamed A Ramady, Political, Economic and Financial Country Risk: Analysis of the Gulf Cooperation, Council-Springer International Publishing, 2014 Philipp Harms, International Investment, Political Risk, and Growth, Springer US, 2000 Robert T Green, Political Instability as a Determinant of U.S Foreign Investment, University of Texas, 1972 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