Politics & global warming docx

politics & global warming Democrats, Republicans, Independents, and the Tea Party Politics & Global Warming: Democrats, Republicans, Independents, and the Tea Party Interview dates: April 23, 2011 – May 12, 2011 Interviews: 1,010 Adults (18+) Margin of error: +/- 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. NOTE: All results show percentages among all respondents, unless otherwise labeled. Totals may occasionally sum to more than 100 percent due to rounding. This study was conducted by the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication, and was funded by the Surdna Foundation, the 11th Hour Project, and the Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment. Principal Investigators: Anthony Leiserowitz, PhD Yale Project on Climate Change Communication School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University (203) 432-4865 anthony.leiserowitz@yale.edu Edward Maibach, MPH, PhD Center for Climate Change Communication Department of Communication, George Mason University (703) 993-1587 emaibach@gmu.edu Connie Roser-Renouf, PhD Center for Climate Change Communication Department of Communication, George Mason University (707) 825-0601 croserre@gmu.edu Jay D. Hmielowski, PhD Yale Project on Climate Change Communication School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University (203) 432-0773 jay.hmielowski@yale.edu Cite as: Leiserowitz, A., Maibach, E., Roser-Renouf, C., & Hmielowski, J. D. (2011) Politics & Global Warming: Democrats, Republicans, Independents, and the Tea Party. Yale University and George Mason University. New Haven, CT: Yale Project on Climate Change Communication. http://environment.yale.edu/climate/files/PoliticsGlobalWarming2011.pdf Yale / George Mason University Politics and Global Warming 2 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 GLOBAL WARMING BELIEFS 4 SUPPORT FOR CLIMATE AND ENERGY POLICIES 4 MISCELLANEOUS 5 VALUES AND POLITICS 6 DETAILED RESULTS 7 GLOBAL WARMING BELIEFS 7 QUESTIONS ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING 10 ISSUE INVOLVEMENT 11 NATIONAL POLICY SUPPORT 12 LOCAL POLICY SUPPORT 16 BEHAVIORS 20 TRUST IN INFORMATION SOURCES 21 CLIMATEGATE 23 DEMOGRAPHICS 24 RELIGIOUS VALUES/BELIEFS 28 EGALITARIAN VALUES 30 INDIVIDUALISM VALUES 32 METHODOLOGY 34 Yale / George Mason University Politics and Global Warming 3 Executive Summary This report, “Politics & Global Warming”, details how Democrats, Republicans, Independents, and members of the Tea Party respond to the issue of global warming. The Tea Party has become an important new player in American politics, so this report for the first time separates their views on global warming from the traditional political categories of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. The results come from a nationally representative survey of 1,010 American adults, aged 18 and older, conducted April 23 through May 12, 2011. The samples were weighted to correspond with US Census Bureau parameters for the United States. The surveys were designed by Anthony Leiserowitz of Yale University and Edward Maibach and Connie Roser-Renouf of George Mason University and conducted by Knowledge Networks, using a representative online research panel of American adults. The margin of sampling error for the national average results is plus or minus 3 percent, with 95 percent confidence. All respondents were asked the following question:  “Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, Democrat, Independent, Other, or No Party/Not interested in politics?” This analysis includes only those survey respondents (n = 809) who stated a party preference (Republican, Democrat, Independent, or Other). Respondents who reported “Other” as their party id (n = 30) were then asked if they leaned Democratic, Republican, or Independent and were subsequently assigned to these categories. Identification with the Tea Party was then assessed using a separate question:  “Do you consider yourself a member of the Tea Party movement or not?” Any respondent who answered “Yes” was assigned to the Tea Party category. Some self-identified Democrats, Independents, and Republicans also self-identified as members of the Tea Party and were therefore assigned to the Tea Party category. Thus the Democrat, Independent, and Republican categories include only those Democrats, Independents and Republicans who did not consider themselves members of the Tea Party movement. As described in more detail in the methodology section at the end of this report, more Republicans than Democrats or Independents identified themselves as Tea Party members, which is why the final Republican category accounts for only 24 percent of all Americans. The following table describes the final number and percentages of respondents in each category. Party Identification Frequency Percent Democrats 312 39 Independents 203 25 Republicans 197 24 Tea Party 97 12 Total 809 100 Yale / George Mason University Politics and Global Warming 4 For the smallest political sub-group (the Tea Party, n = 97) the margin of error is plus or minus 10 percent, with 95 percent confidence. As a result, cells in the Detailed Results tables are highlighted in red only if they are at least 10 percentage points greater than the national average. GLOBAL WARMING BELIEFS  Majorities of Democrats (78%), Independents (71%) and Republicans (53%) believe that global warming is happening. By contrast, only 34 percent of Tea Party members believe global warming is happening, while 53 percent say it is not happening.  While 62 percent of Democrats say that global warming is caused mostly by human activities, most Tea Party members say it is either naturally caused (50%) or isn’t happening at all (21%).  Democrats are more likely to agree that the record heat waves of the summer of 2010 (not 2011) strengthened their belief that global warming is occurring, while Republicans and Tea Party members are more likely to disagree.  By contrast, Tea Party members are more likely to agree that the record snowstorms of the winter of 2010-2011 in the US caused them to question whether global warming is occurring.  A majority of Democrats (55%) say that most scientists think global warming is happening, while majorities of Republicans (56%) and Tea Party members (69%) say that there is a lot of disagreement among scientists about whether or not global warming is happening.  A large majority of Democrats (72%) worry about global warming, compared to 53 percent of Independents, 38 percent of Republicans, and 24 percent of Tea Party members. Over half (51%) of Tea Party members say they are not at all worried about global warming.  Nearly half of Democrats (45%) say that global warming is already harming people in the United States, while 33 percent of Republicans and 51 percent of Tea Party members say it will never harm people in the United States.  Tea Party members are much more likely to say that they are “very well informed” about global warming than the other groups. Likewise, they are also much more likely to say they “do not need any more information” about global warming to make up their mind. SUPPORT FOR CLIMATE AND ENERGY POLICIES  Majorities of all four political groups support funding more research into renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power and providing tax rebates for people who purchase energy efficient vehicles or solar panels.  Majorities of Democrats, Independents and Republicans support requiring electric utilities to produce at least 20% of their electricity from renewable energy sources, even if it cost the average household an extra $100 a year. A majority of Tea Party members, however, oppose this policy, with 39 percent strongly opposed. Yale / George Mason University Politics and Global Warming 5  Likewise, majorities of Democrats, Independents and Republicans support an international treaty to cut carbon dioxide emissions. A large majority of Tea Party members, however, oppose a treaty, with 55 percent strongly opposed.  Majorities of all four parties support the expansion of offshore drilling for oil and natural gas off the U.S. coast, with 46 percent of Republicans and 58 percent of Tea Party members strongly supportive.  A majority of Democrats oppose building more nuclear power plants (65%), while majorities of Independents (52%), Republicans (62%) and Tea Party members (67%) support building them.  However, only a majority of Tea Party members (52%) would support building a nuclear power plant in their own local area. All other groups would be opposed.  Majorities of all four groups support local regulations requiring new homes to be more energy efficient, the construction of bike paths on city streets, and increasing the availability of public transportation in their county.  Majorities of Democrats and Independents support paying 5% more on their monthly utility bill to get their electricity from renewable sources, changing zoning rules to promote energy efficient apartment buildings, mixed use neighborhoods to encourage walking, and decreasing suburban sprawl. Majorities of Republicans and Tea Party members oppose these local policies, with Tea Party members much more likely to strongly oppose them.  Majorities of all four groups say that protecting the environment either improves economic growth and provides new jobs or has no effect on economic growth or jobs. Tea Party members are the most likely to say environmental protection reduces economic growth and costs jobs (33%). MISCELLANEOUS  Tea Party members are more than twice as likely than any other group to say they don’t want to change the light bulbs in their house to energy-efficient compact fluorescent lights (CFLs).  Majorities of all four groups trust scientists as a source of information about global warming, ranging from 88 percent of Democrats to 51 percent of Tea Party members. By contrast, 82 percent of Democrats trust President Obama as a source of information, compared to 41 percent of Independents, 21 percent of Republicans, and only 5 percent of Tea Party members.  Tea Party members are far more likely to have heard about the “climategate” email controversy (45%) than Republicans (20%), Independents (27%), or Democrats (16%). Yale / George Mason University Politics and Global Warming 6 VALUES AND POLITICS  Tea Party members are politically more conservative (78%) than Republicans (63%), Independents (27%), or Democrats (11%).  Tea Party members are more likely to be “born-again” or evangelicals (46%) than Republicans (31%), Independents (20%), or Democrats (21%).  Democrats are more likely to believe that human beings evolved from earlier species of animals (62%), compared to Independents (57%), Republicans (51%), and Tea Party members (34%).  Democrats have stronger egalitarian values than all other groups, with Tea Party members holding relatively anti-egalitarian views.  Tea Party members have stronger individualistic values than all other groups, with strong anti-government attitudes. Yale / George Mason University Politics and Global Warming 7 Detailed Results GLOBAL WARMING BELIEFS Q47. Recently, you may have noticed that global warming has been getting some attention in the news. Global warming refers to the idea that the world’s average temperature has been increasing over the past 150 years, may be increasing more in the future, and that the world’s climate may change as a result. What do you think? Do you think that global warming is happening? Nat'l Avg Democrats Independents Republicans Tea Party Yes 65 78 71 53 34 No 20 8 14 30 53 Don't know 15 14 15 18 13 Q50. Assuming global warming is happening, do you think it is Nat'l Avg Democrats Independents Republicans Tea Party Caused mostly by human activities 46 62 43 36 19 Caused mostly by natural changes in the environment 35 25 35 43 50 None of the above because global warming isn't happening 7 2 5 11 21 Other 12 11 17 10 9 Q238b. The record heat waves last summer in the United States strengthened my belief that global warming is occurring. Nat'l Avg Democrats Independents Republicans Tea Party Strongly Agree 14 20 12 9 7 Somewhat Agree 41 57 38 26 21 Somewhat Disagree 26 17 34 31 26 Strongly Disagree 21 7 17 34 46 Yale / George Mason University Politics and Global Warming 8 Q238c. The record snowstorms this winter in the United States make me question whether global warming is occurring. Nat'l Avg Democrats Independents Republicans Tea Party Strongly Agree 13 9 11 17 26 Somewhat Agree 34 38 31 35 25 Somewhat Disagree 28 28 30 28 24 Strongly Disagree 25 25 29 20 24 Q59. Which comes closer to your own view? Nat'l Avg Democrats Independents Republicans Tea Party Most scientists think global warming is happening 41 55 46 29 10 There is a lot of disagreement among scientists about whether or not global warming is happening 41 24 40 56 69 Most scientists think global warming is not happening 4 1 2 5 13 Don't know enough to say 14 19 12 11 7 Yale / George Mason University Politics and Global Warming 9 Q30. To the best of your knowledge, what proportion of climate scientists think that global warming is happening? Nat'l Avg Democrats Independents Republicans Tea Party 81 to 100% 14 18 18 10 1 61 to 80% 20 24 20 16 12 41 to 60% 24 20 26 27 25 21 to 40% 14 10 10 15 28 0 to 20% 3 0 4 3 9 Don't know enough to say 26 28 21 29 25 Q60. How worried are you about global warming? Nat'l Avg Democrats Independents Republicans Tea Party Very worried 9 14 7 5 2 Somewhat worried 45 58 46 33 22 Not very worried 27 20 33 33 25 Not at all worried 20 8 14 29 51 Q70. When do you think global warming will start to harm people in the United States? Nat'l Avg Democrats Independents Republicans Tea Party They are being harmed now 31 45 33 16 9 In 10 years 12 15 12 10 8 In 25 years 14 18 13 13 6 In 50 years 10 9 12 12 6 In 100 years 12 7 11 16 20 Never 22 7 18 33 51 [...]... will global warming begin to harm people? 5 8 2 4 0 What can the United States do to reduce global warming? 5 8 4 2 4 Is global warming really happening? How do you know that global warming is happening? What causes global warming? How do you know that global warming is caused mostly by human activities, not natural changes in the environment? What harm will global warming cause? Will global warming. .. University Politics and Global Warming 10 What can I do to reduce global warming? 7 9 6 5 2 How much would it cost the United States to reduce global warming? 2 2 2 2 1 10 15 10 6 2 11 12 12 10 7 6 3 5 8 11 Republicans 10 57 30 3 Tea Party 30 55 14 1 What can the nations of the world do to reduce global warming? Is there still time to reduce global warming, or is it too late? Is global warming a hoax?... 14 26 9 54 5 Politics and Global Warming 20 Q207 Posted a comment online in response to a news story or blog about global warming Many times (6+) Several times(4-5) A few times(2-3) Once Never Don't Know Nat'l Avg 1 2 5 3 85 3 Democrats 2 1 4 5 85 4 Independents 2 2 8 1 83 5 Republicans 1 2 2 3 90 3 Tea Party 0 2 12 4 82 0 Q211a If you were to contact government officials about global warming, would...Q71 When do you think global warming will start to harm other people around the world? Nat'l Avg Democrats Independents Republicans Tea Party 34 48 37 18 15 12 12 10 11 21 17 14 9 5 7 10 12 13 10 18 10 11 12 15 33 4 4 7 19 51 They are being harmed now In 10 years In 25 years In 50 years In 100 years Never QUESTIONS ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING Q59b If you could ask the expert on global warming ONLY ONE QUESTION,... Republicans Tea Party 72 92 71 55 33 15 2 13 28 43 13 6 16 17 25 Urge them to take action to reduce global warming? Urge them to not take action to reduce global warming? Other TRUST IN INFORMATION SOURCES Q161_1 How much do you trust or distrust the following as a source of information about global warming? Television weather reporters Strongly trust Somewhat trust Somewhat distrust Strongly distrust... 21 43 Q238a With the economy in such bad shape, the US can’t afford to reduce global warming Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Yale / George Mason University Nat'l Avg 16 36 33 16 Democrats 5 32 40 23 Independents 14 38 33 16 Republicans 24 42 28 6 Tea Party 40 27 20 13 Politics and Global Warming 19 Q243 Overall, do you think that protecting the environment: Nat'l Avg... George Mason University Democrats Independents Republicans Tea Party 21 21 20 24 16 29 32 35 25 19 27 30 24 29 14 23 17 20 22 52 Politics and Global Warming 11 Q75 How much do you agree or disagree with the following statement? I could easily change my mind about global warming Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Nat'l Avg 5 32 33 29 Democrats 5 34 29 32 Independents 6... Brazil) reduce their emissions 9 5 9 12 12 The US should not reduce its emissions 8 1 6 9 27 Don't know 19 21 14 22 15 Yale / George Mason University Politics and Global Warming 15 Q170 How big of an effort should the United States make to reduce global warming? Nat'l Avg Democrats Independents Republicans Tea Party A large-scale effort, even if it has large economic costs 29 44 27 16 10 A medium-scale... feel you are about global warming? Very well informed Fairly well informed Not very well informed Not at all informed Nat'l Avg 11 54 31 4 Democrats 8 51 36 5 Independents 9 55 32 4 Q74 On some issues people feel that they have all the information they need in order to form a firm opinion, while on other issues they would like more information before making up their mind For global warming, where would... Department of Energy (DOE) Strongly trust Somewhat trust Somewhat distrust Strongly distrust Nat'l Avg 11 47 28 14 Yale / George Mason University Democrats 18 57 22 4 Politics and Global Warming 22 Q161_8 The U.S Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC) Strongly trust Somewhat trust Somewhat distrust Strongly distrust Nat'l Avg 15 55 22 8 Democrats 21 61 15 2 Independents Republicans 13 10 57 55 . politics & global warming Democrats, Republicans, Independents, and the Tea Party Politics & Global Warming: Democrats, Republicans, Independents,. http://environment.yale.edu/climate/files/PoliticsGlobalWarming2011.pdf Yale / George Mason University Politics and Global Warming 2 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 GLOBAL WARMING BELIEFS. University Politics and Global Warming 7 Detailed Results GLOBAL WARMING BELIEFS Q47. Recently, you may have noticed that global warming has been getting some attention in the news. Global