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Tiêu đề The Necessity and Current Status of Credit Ratings in Vietnam Financial Market
Tác giả Nguyễn Huy Tâm, Trần Hằng Giang, Nguyễn Thế Anh, Vi Cao Cường
Người hướng dẫn Chu Văn Hùng, Master
Trường học Vietnam National University, Hanoi
Chuyên ngành Finance
Thể loại Student Research Report
Năm xuất bản 2024
Thành phố Hanoi
Định dạng
Số trang 70
Dung lượng 906 KB

Cấu trúc

  • Chapter 1: Introduction (7)
    • 1.1. Research background (7)
    • 1.2. Research context (10)
    • 1.3. Research contribution (12)
      • 1.3.1. Theoretical significance (12)
      • 1.3.2. Practical significance (12)
    • 1.4. Research content (13)
    • 1.5. Research objectives (13)
    • 1.6. Thesis structure (14)
  • Chapter 2: Literature review and International experiencies (15)
  • Chapter 3: Current status of credit ratings in Vietnam's capital market (33)
    • 3.1 The formation of Vietnam's credit rating (33)
    • 3.2 Reliability of Vietnamese credit rating agencies (35)
    • 3.3. Commentation (37)
  • Chapter 4: Research methodology (38)
    • 4.1. Approach (38)
    • 4.2. Data (39)
    • 4.3. Sample (40)
      • 4.3.1. Descriptive Statistic Analysis (40)
      • 4.3.2. Reliability and Content Validity Analysis (41)
  • Chapter 5: Findings (42)
    • 5.1. Realibility of data and descriptive statistic (42)
    • 5.2. Summarize finding (50)
  • Chapter 6: Discussion and Conclusion (52)
    • 6.1. Interpretation of implementations (52)
      • 6.1.1 The necessity of credit ratings in Vietnam's capital market (52)
      • 6.1.2 The Current status of credit rating in Vietnam capital market (52)
    • 6.2 Challenges and opportunities for credit rating in the Vietnamese market (53)
      • 6.2.1 Challenges (53)
      • 6.2.2 Opportunities (54)
    • 6.3. Research limitations (56)
    • 6.4. Recommendation (56)
      • 6.4.1. Comparative among solutions (57)
        • 6.4.1.1 Government establish and manage credit rating institutions (57)
        • 6.4.1.2. Branches of Moody's, Standard & Poor's, and Fitch working in Vietnam (58)
        • 6.4.1.3. Current credit rating agencies boost their activities (58)
        • 6.4.1.4. DCRAs follow the model of a joint stock company, the parent company is GCRAs . 59 6.4.2. Appropriate solutions are proposed by the research team (59)

Nội dung

It explores the impact of credit ratings on lenders' decision-making processes and highlights the role of credit ratings in promoting financial discipline in the Vietnam market, thereby

Introduction

Research background

Finance wields a pervasive influence on the global landscape, shaping economies, societies, and individuals It is the lifeblood of economic activity, fueling growth through the allocation of funds to productive ventures, innovation, and job creation As the intricacy of financial markets and the heterogeneity of borrowers have evolved over the years, both investors and regulatory authorities have augmented their dependence on credit rating agencies (Cantor & Packer, 1995)

A credit rating entails the assessment of credit risk linked to a financial instrument or entity It reflects an entity's rating determined by its qualifications and the soundness of its historical financial statements in the context of previous borrowing and lending activities Yet, credit rating agencies (CRAs) appeared much later than the formation of the financial market, especially the credit market

Back to the initial decades of the 17th century, the Dutch made significant contributions to domestic and international finance Their innovations included the introduction of common stock, exemplified by the Dutch East India Company, and the establishment of a precursor to a central bank known as the Wisselbank or Bank of Amsterdam Consequently, the Dutch Republic possessed fundamental elements of a contemporary financial system: strong public credit, stable money, elements of a banking system, a central bank of sorts, and securities markets (Sylla, 2002)

The establishment of a modern financial system in England was initiated by King William III in 1689, who sought the assistance of Dutch financiers This collaboration led to the creation of the Bank of England, a pivotal institution that laid the foundation for the country's financial infrastructure.

1694, reflecting England's alignment with this evolving financial landscape (Sylla,

Alexander Hamilton—one of the Founding Fathers most aware of the Dutch, English, and French financial precedents—worked to establish a similarly modern financial system in the newly independent United States during his tenure as the first Secretary of the Treasury from 1789 to 1795 Despite being mostly bankrupt prior to 1789, the United States had robust state finances, a stable currency based on species, a banking

8 system, a central bank, and bond and stock markets in many cities by 1795 (Sylla,

Respectively, the Dutch, the England and the Americans became the leading financial systems and capital market from the 17th century till present, but each operated differently As the nineteenth century witnessed an increasing number of nations, both in Europe and globally, embracing constitutional frameworks and representative systems of governance, there was a notable expansion in the size and extent of the international bond market However, it is important to highlight that this market predominantly revolved around sovereign debts European enterprises primarily relied on bank loans and stock offerings to fulfill their requirements for external capital In a notable contrast with the European states, where national debts were predominantly fueled by war; the Americans' sovereign debts at both the federal and state levels were comparatively minimal As the nation underwent a process of urbanization, local governments gradually assumed the role of public bond issuers, gradually supplanting the states in this regard Nevertheless, the state and local bond markets paled in comparison to the vast corporate bond market, which was dominated by private entities (Sylla, 2002)

Significantly, the primary economic imperative of the United States throughout much of the nineteenth century was to secure funds for the construction of an extensive railroad network, which aimed to connect and integrate a continental-scale economy Before the mid-19th century, railroad corporations were relatively modest in scale, primarily located in established regions of the country, and were able to finance their construction and operations through bank credit and stock offerings However, after

1850, railroad corporations began to expand in size, with greater capital requirements, and ventured into unsettled and underdeveloped territories lacking local banks and willing investors The emergence of increased corporate bond activity resulted in a pressing demand from transatlantic European investors for comprehensive credit information concerning the companies they were being solicited to invest in, surpassing previous levels of scrutiny Traditional avenues of acquiring such information through personal connections, familial ties, business associations, and banking relationships proved inadequate Investors sought independent, third-party sources of information to inform their investment decisions and pricing assessments

The antecedents of bond rating agencies were the mercantile credit agencies, which assessed the creditworthiness of merchants in meeting their financial obligations In

1841, waking from the financial crisis of 1837, Louis Tappan founded the first mercantile credit agency in New York (Cantor & Packer, 1995) In 1849, Henry Varnum Poor, editor for the American Railroad Journal, began disseminating organized details pertaining to the assets, liabilities, and earnings of railroad properties This information proved highly sought-after by investors, prompting Poor and his son to establish their own publication, known as Poor's Manual of the Railroads of the United States, after the American Civil War in 1865 This annual compendium consequently became the preeminent source of authoritative information within the industry for several decades Following his marriage to Lewis Tappan's niece in 1867, Henry Varnum Poor founded the "H.V and H.W Poor Company," allegedly with help from the Mercantile Agency Later on, the business would combine with Standard Statistics to become the S&P that exists today (Cash, 2018)

Not until 1909, John Moody established the first ever rating agency aimed at evaluating railroad bonds in the United States This action was spurred by the considerable scale of the private bond market in the U.S in contrast to other nations, in which coupled with a growing demand from the investing class for enhanced and more comprehensive financial data (Sylla, 2002) Fitch Ratings and Fitch Solutions are part of the Fitch Group John Knowles Fitch established the company on December 24, 1914, as the Fitch Publishing Company in New York City Together, S&P, Moody and Fitch became

As of 2013, the dominant market share of "roughly 95 percent" is held by the "Big Three" of global credit rating agencies (GCRAs) These agencies have significantly impacted the bond market, swiftly becoming "a public good that serves the interest of the entire financial system" (Scalet & Kelly, 2012), despite their relatively brief existence compared to the long-established bond market.

The development of credit rating services in Vietnam mirrored the emergence of its bond market, particularly its corporate segment, which occurred post-2000 The bond market's evolution, marked by significant growth since the early 2000s, has played a crucial role in fulfilling the capital needs of various stakeholders This growth is evidenced by the substantial increase in bond issuances in 2019, which reached $12.8 billion, exceeding those of Indonesia and the Philippines This surge reflects the expanding scale and significance of Vietnam's corporate bond market.

As being a young market among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), with less experience and smaller in size, flaws are inevitable With the government’s acknowledgement of the needs for credit rating services, the domestic credit rating agencies (DCRAs) have been given space to develop Nevertheless, the Vietnam credit rating agencies has not been working efficiently although there are multiple legacies from the global and regional economies It is crucial to acknowledge that the absence of a well-established credit culture poses significant risks to both the bond market and the broader financial sector From the recent violations related to bond issuances, experts said that the market needed to improve the credit rating culture besides other factors to prevent unsustainably market development (Phung, 2022)

Therefore, in this research, we will continue to explore and further develop in order to highlight the necessity of developing credit rating agencies for the capital market in Vietnam By running models from published data, the aim is to re-evaluate the performance of credit rating agencies and simultaneously research the potential and challenges of credit rating work for the capital market in Vietnam.

Research context

Vietnam's capital market has been operating stably, meeting investors' trading needs for stocks of listed companies By the end of 2008, Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange and Hanoi Stock Exchange Center were operating stably with more than 300 stocks and more than 500 bonds listed and traded daily At the end of 2009, there were 475 stocks and 569 types of bonds listed on 2 exchanges

Transactions on the financial market have also improved in terms of transaction scale, with the average session transaction value (stocks and bonds) of both exchanges in 2008 being about 1,400 billion VND/session In 2009, the average transaction value increased to 2,816 billion, of which approximately 85% were in capital market For the bond market, a specialization has been formed and has been in operation since mid-2008, allowing transactions of bonds to be more convenient and easier

The size of the capital market has increased significantly in recent times At the end of

2007, the capitalization of the listed stock market reached 43% of GDP due to increased listing scale and high stock prices At the end of 2008, market capitalization dropped sharply to only 18% of GDP But at the end of 2009 the market recovered, market

11 capitalization increased to 37% of GDP in 2009 (Dang Anh Tuan, phat trien thi truong von viet nam 1)

Table 1: Transaction value/GDP in Vietnam capital market during 2000 - 2009

Vietnam's capital markets have witnessed remarkable growth, with the Unlisted Public Companies Market (UPCoM) established in 2009 and the financial derivatives market emerging in 2017 The overall market size has surged from under 40% of GDP in 2011 to a significant 104% of GDP as of June 2020 However, despite this expansion, Vietnam's stock market remains relatively small compared to other Asian economies.

The capital market is a fundamental element of a modern market economy Whether a country's economy is strong and developed or not is reflected through its capital market All the fluctuations in the economy have some impact on the capital market, which is why the capital market is considered a "symbolic economy" for the real economy Additionally, for a country to develop in all aspects, especially in the economy, capital is of utmost importance It is a primary condition in the development process of any nation (Thị Trường Vốn tại Việt Nam, lý luận và thực tiễn, Nguyen Thi Thu Phương)

Credit rating is pivotal in the capital market as it affects an entity's capability to garner funds It helps investors to determine risk levels and make informed investment decisions A strong credit rating enables businesses to access a broader range of financing options beyond bank loans, facilitating domestic and international market expansion Furthermore, credit ratings aid financial institutions in managing risk and making prudent lending decisions, contributing to the overall stability of the financial system

In summary, a credit rating influences a company's ability to raise funds, affects capital costs, and impacts economic growth for both the company and the nation It is an essential instrument for promoting transparency and efficiency in the capital market, helping stakeholders to make well-informed investment and financial choices.

Research contribution

This study contributes significantly to existing knowledge on credit ratings in Vietnam's developing capital market This research delves into the impact of credit ratings on lenders' decision-making process By highlighting this dynamic, the study offers valuable insights into the role of credit ratings in promoting financial discipline in the Vietnam market and providing a standardized assessment of an issuer's creditworthiness Credit ratings enable both domestic and international investors to make informed decisions about potential investments Transparency is especially valuable for international investors looking to explore an unfamiliar market

This study seeks to identify the root causes of the current challenges facing Vietnam's credit rating instrument The collected data has comprehensively analyzed the system's weaknesses and research has clarified the factors that hinder market efficiency Based on the identified challenges, the study proposes appropriate solutions to improve Vietnam's credit rating These solutions include recommendations to strengthen the legal framework to improve the transparency and objectivity of the ratings or explore the application of international best practices to the credit rating system of Vietnam Thereby promoting a more reliable credit rating system, bringing benefits to all stakeholders in the Vietnam financial market Investors rely on credit ratings to make informed investment decisions as do institutions who want access to capital at competitive costs This research aims to contribute to the overall growth and stability of the developing financial market in Vietnam

Research content

Credit ratings are a valuable tool for assessing the creditworthiness of borrowers and lenders This is evident through the theoretical and practical implications outlined in this research Specifically, this study investigated three key research questions, highlighting the significance of credit ratings in risk management.

The necessity of credit ratings in Vietnam's capital market; Credit ratings for the capital market play a very important role in banking and financial activities and production and business activities This is an effective tool to help financial market activities take place transparently and publicly, thereby promoting the safe and sustainable development of the financial and monetary markets and the capital market

Despite the increasing importance of credit rating in the financial market, Vietnam faces significant challenges in its development This study identifies key problems in the Vietnam capital market, spanning multiple areas, which hinder the effective growth of credit rating in the country.

Propose solution to develop credit ratings in Vietnam From the results shown from the above two issues, we analyze and propose recommendations on the development of credit rating in the future based on proven theoretical foundations and collected data from survey

These research problem explore credit ratings in Vietnam's capital market and assess the necessity, effectiveness, challenges and opportunities of developing credit ratings in that context Thereby understanding the role and importance of credit ratings in promoting the trust and development of the capital market By using advanced statistical models along with quantitative and qualitative methods, we aim to develop a more accurate and robust credit rating framework.

Research objectives

This scientific research aims to establish a suitable credit rating model for Vietnam's capital market through comprehensive qualitative and quantitative analysis By evaluating the advantages and disadvantages of various credit rating development models, the study provides an impartial viewpoint Its findings aim to enhance market efficiency, equipping policymakers and existing credit rating agencies in Vietnam with concrete insights into the perspectives of capital market participants.

Thesis structure

The structure of this research paper includes six primary chapters The thesis's first chapter provides a brief overview of the Research background, Research context, Research contributions, Research questions, and Research objectives This article's second chapter reviews the Literature review Chapter 3 use qualiative method to determine the necessity and current status of credit rating in Vietnam Capital market Chapter 4 explains Research Methodology and Data and Data Analysis, the finding of quantitive analysis include The chapter 5 is Discussion, proposed solution and conclusion, which includes a summary of all significant findings, an examination of Theoretical Contributions, a discussion of Potential Implementations, and finally the study's Limitations and Recommendations for further research The remaining content consists of the Reference List and Appendices

Literature review and International experiencies

Akdemir and Karslı (2012) showed that CRAs evaluating entities' ability to meet financial obligations, assigning ratings that influence investor decisions and borrowing costs A favorable credit rating enhances reputation and access to financing, while lower ratings can increase borrowing costs and limit market access Regulatory oversight aims to ensure rating accuracy and transparency, but challenges persist, including concerns about conflicts of interest and rating methodologies Future research should address rating accuracy, timeliness, and the evolving financial landscape S Daher (1999) argues that credit ratings are now significant factors in determining how much debt is priced and accepted by the market Ratings are currently seen by institutional investors, who are urgently required to maintain instruments of specific credit categories in their portfolios, as well as individual investors, who cannot evaluate credit risk, as readily applicable tools for discerning credit quality Langohr and Langohr (2008) highlight that fundamental contribution of CRAs in enhancing market efficiency and informing investment decisions, and supporting the overall stability and functionality of the bond market Langohr and Langohr (2008) point out examples of the critical scrutiny faced by credit rating agencies (CRAs) following major default crises in South-East Asia

(1997), the US (2001-2002), and Europe (2002-2003) research through surveys and interviews conducted by Graham and Harvey (2001) and Graham, Harvey, and Rajgopal (2005) corroborate the significant impact of credit rating considerations on managerial decision-making

Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) faced criticism for belatedly identifying defaults, compromising investor protection from credit losses Consequently, global regulators implemented regulations to limit CRAs' perceived dominance in capital markets These actions aimed to address delayed detection of credit risks and minimize adverse effects on market participants Post-crisis, CRAs globally embraced self-imposed codes of conduct to enhance transparency, accountability, and promptness in credit risk evaluations In Europe, the Commission's 2005 Communication on Credit Rating Agencies provided guidelines to improve credit rating accuracy and reliability Similarly, in the US, the Credit Rating Agency Reform Act of 2006 mandated measures to foster greater independence and transparency in the credit rating industry.

Reform Act of 2006 was enacted to establish regulatory oversight and enhance CRA accountability Langohr and Langohr (2008) highlight the fundamental contribution of CRAs in enhancing market efficiency, informing investment decisions, and supporting the overall stability and functionality of the bond market Their insights shed light on the intricate dynamics between credit ratings, investor behavior, and strategic asset management practices Akdemir and Karslı (2012) emphasize that companies and countries' credit ratings will be directly affected by their borrowing costs, especially in the market Higher credit ratings result in lower interest rates for borrowers, while lower ratings result in higher borrowing costs However, credit prices are not determined solely by relative credit ratings Other important factors such as the overall money supply and the specifics of the individual loan also contribute Manso (2013) illustrates that in developing its rating policy, a Credit Rating Agency (CRA) should prioritize considerations beyond just ratings accuracy, taking into account the impact of ratings on the borrower's likelihood of survival Additionally, Manso identifies that increased competition among agencies may lead to detrimental effects on overall welfare

Credit rating is essential for assessing the economy during financial crises and can improve marketability and pricing of financial commitments (Dao, B T.,2013) The advancement of credit rating in Vietnam encounters various hurdles, including economic slowdown, a surge in credit activities, and increasing protectionism (Nguyen,

2018) Kisgen (2019) provides that rating agencies wield considerable influence in financial markets, not only by providing valuable default probability insights but also because ratings are incorporated into regulations and contracts as well as amplifying their impact A credit rating condenses extensive information essential for assessing the creditworthiness of bond issuers and certain financial instruments Credit rating agencies (CRAs) thus play a key role in addressing principal-agent issues by enabling lenders to navigate through the asymmetry of information inherent in lending relationships, aiding borrowers in navigating the same informational challenges (White,

2001) Numerous stakeholders within financial markets have articulated apprehensions regarding the limited transparency surrounding Credit Rating Agencies' (CRAs) methodologies, procedures, practices, and processes In this context, the IOSCO Code underscores the following: "In order to promote transparency and improve the ability of market participants and regulators to judge whether a CRA has satisfactorily implemented the Code Fundamentals, CRAS should disclose how each provision of the Code Fundamentals is addressed in the CRA's own code of conduct CRAs should explain if and how their own codes of conduct deviate from the Code Fundamentals and

In determining whether a material deviation from the IOSCO Code Fundamentals and CRA Principles has been made, regulators and market participants should focus on assessing whether such deviations still accomplish the objectives of those standards This evaluation enables them to draw informed conclusions about the CRA's implementation and make appropriate adjustments.

(2004), р 2) Elkhoury (2007) describes how Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) utilize both public and non-public financial and accounting data, along with information pertaining to economic and political factors, to assess the likelihood of governments or firms meeting their obligations promptly The main objective of seeking a rating is to improve access to private capital markets and reduce costs associated with debt issuance and interest

Research on asymmetric information in the Vietnamese capital market consistently identifies negative impacts on firm value (Thai, 2021; Huynh, 2020, 2021) This situation is exacerbated by the ownership concentration of large shareholders, which has a positive correlation with asymmetric information (Vo, 2019) Research by Sheng

(2013) demonstrates that countries characterized by low information asymmetry tend to be high-income, industrialized nations with strong institutional environments Consequently, banks in these countries are anticipated to maintain high-quality financial statements On the other hand, countries experiencing significant information asymmetry typically include middle-income nations, emerging market economies, or those with poor institutional environments Banks in such countries are expected to exhibit lower quality financial reporting Unique characteristics of the Vietnamese market, including high financial leverage ratios and the values of variables related to asymmetric information, further highlight its differences from developed economies (Huynh, 2020, 2021) These findings underscore the need for policy interventions to address asymmetric information and promote the development of the stock market in Vietnam This issue has also been studied in prior research by Hu (2016) The presence of asymmetric information in credit rating has been shown to impact the fairness of ratings, with the emergence of independent rating agencies leading to fairer ratings This is particularly important in the context of bank credit ratings, where the impact of financial ratios on ratings is significantly affected by asymmetric information (Shen,

2012) The impact of asymmetric information in the credit market on the actual outcomes of firms has also been demonstrated, with credit-rated firms benefiting from reduced borrowing costs and enhanced debt issuances (Tang, 2006)

In Korea, credit rating agencies are the information product industry in the bond market Table below shows the credit rating agencies in Korea Credit rating is an important infrastructure in the bond market, and credit rating agencies can eliminate the asymmetry in information in the bond market, by providing investors with credit risk information (Mitsui, 2009)

Table below shows the size of the domestic capital market In the entire capital market, trading volume increased by 11.4 times from KRW130.563 trillion in 1990 to KRW1488.4 trillion in 2008 Likewise, the trading volume in the bond market3 skyrocketed by 17 times from KRW51.117 trillion to KRW865.388 trillion Its share in the capital market increased from 39.2% to 58.1% The trading volume in the stock market4 augmented by 7.9 times from KRW79.446 trillion to KRW623.011 trillion, but its share in the capital market decreased from 60.8% to 41.9% In the Korean capital market, the bond market has expanded more rapidly than the stock market

Table 2: Size of the domestic capital market

It is known that rating is highly correlated with bond market yield As grade is higher, market yield becomes lower, and vice versa Namely, risky bonds require a high-risk premium The correlation between rating and bond market yield in the Korean bond market is discussed based on the rating of KIS Fig 6 shows the government bond and the yield spread from AAA to A on Jan 15, 2010 Government bond yield is the lowest: 2.25% for 3-month maturity, and 4.8% for 5-year maturity Generally, government bond yield is equal to risk free interest rate yield, which is used for rating bonds In the case of 3-month maturity, yield is 2.92% for AAA, 3.08% for AA, and 3.52% for A Namely, as grade is lower, yield is higher, as expected theoretically As shown in Fig 6, for up to 5-year maturity, as grade is lower, market yield is higher, and yield curves do not

19 cross each other Therefore, it can be concluded that KIS conducts appropriate rating from the viewpoint of the relation between rating and market yield

Figure 1: Yield Spread by Rating Category AAA~A [Jan 15, 2010] (KIS) Unit: %

Current status of credit ratings in Vietnam's capital market

The formation of Vietnam's credit rating

Vietnam's involvement with international credit rating agencies (CRAs) has become evident with the country's economic development Since the 1997s, Moody's, a globally recognized CRA, has assessed Vietnam's country risk profile with Ba3 level (Trading economic) However, the concept of initial national credit rating is still a new issue because Vietnam is classified as a low-income country that depends heavily on international aid in the form of Official Development Assistance (Cuong, 2018)

Vietnam's ambitious pursuit of international financial integration manifested in its 2005 entry into capital markets The Vietnamese government's issuance of bonds on the New York Stock Exchange garnered attention from investors and raised a substantial sum of $750 million This move not only injected capital into the government's coffers but also instilled confidence in Vietnam's economic stability, driving investor interest in the country's future prospects.

The period after 2005 witnessed a period of growth for Vietnam's credit rating system

An important event occurred in December 2006 with the establishment of Vietnam Credit Rating Company (VCR), Vietnam's first domestic credit rating agency (CRA) The appearance of VCR marks an important step towards development and more autonomy in credit ratings in Vietnam Based on this foundation, the National Credit Information Center (CIC) was established in 2007 CIC plays an important role in Vietnam's credit rating by providing an information repository (Elkhoury, M, 2007) Data-centric credit information provides the reliable information needed for the CRA to conduct a thorough and accurate creditworthiness assessment Although newly emerging, Vietnam Credit Rating Joint Stock Company (VCR) ceased operations in

2013 VCR had difficulty attracting a sufficient number of customers, especially in the early stages of its establishment The legal framework governing CRA in Vietnam was still evolving while VCR was in operation Some market observers point to potential transparency issues and conflicts of interest within Vietnam Credit Rating Joint Stock

Company (VCR) that have exposed the company to accusations In addition, the overall transparency of Vietnam's financial market, especially in the early 2000s, made it difficult for VCR to collect accurate and reliable information for credit assessment (Nguyễn Thị Thu Hằng, 2008)

The promulgation of the Credit Rating Law in 2008 marked an important turning point for Vietnam's credit rating system This regulatory framework establishes a clearly defined regulatory environment that promotes the orderly development of the credit rating industry The law addresses important aspects such as licensing and operational requirements for Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs), ensuring transparency and accountability in credit ratings (Miglionico, 2019) Based on this foundation, Decree

No 88/2014/ND-CP issued in 2014 further strengthened the legal framework The Decree goes deeper into licensing procedures and specific operations for CRA The implementation of these regulations creates more confidence in the objectivity and reliability of Vietnam's credit rating system The legal framework has enhanced trust and is a key factor in attracting many domestic and international CRAs to participate in the Vietnamese market After implementing this decree, Saigon Phat Thinh Credit Rating Joint Stock Company (SaigonRatings) and FiinRatings Credit Rating Joint Stock Company (FiinRatings) are licensed to operate These two companies officially operated and began providing credit services in 2015 Both organizations continue to play an important role in Vietnam's financial market by providing credit rating services to customers These services include creditworthiness grading, which serves as an important tool for investors and other stakeholders to make informed decisions (Tạp, N.T, 2014)

From 2017 until now, Vietnam's credit rating has marked a period of development in the capital market VIS Rating was established in 2017, a joint venture between Moody's and Vietnam Investment Group (VIG) Credit rating activities have developed strongly, with the participation of many domestic and international organizations The legal framework has also been improved with amendments issued by the government The Enterprise Law 2020 amends and supplements regulations on credit rating activities, creating a more favorable legal environment for the development of credit rating activities in Vietnam

Vietnam's credit rating system has witnessed significant progress in recent years, with new credit rating agencies such as FiinGroup, SaigonRatings, VIS Ratings, and PJC Ratings emerging This diversity has fostered a more competitive environment, leading to an increased quality and reliability of credit ratings Consequently, the credit rating system has become more robust and adaptable to the ever-changing financial landscape.

35 rating market will promote a more flexible approach to assessing creditworthiness Credit ratings have expanded to incorporate financial factors and non-financial aspects to become increasingly relevant to participants' decisions Developments in transparency in the credit rating process increasingly promote greater trust and understanding among stakeholders The level of transparency allows businesses and investors to better understand the rationale behind creditworthiness assessments, ultimately leading to more informed decision-making in Vietnam's financial markets (Nguyen & Nguyen, 2016)

Despite the positive developments of credit ratings in Vietnam, there are still limitations that hinder the maximum potential of credit ratings One key challenge lies in the voluntary nature of credit ratings for bond issuance (as opposed to mandatory requirements in some developed markets) This lack of coercion has limited the reach and influence of Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) in Vietnam Besides, the relative infancy of Vietnam's credit rating system compared to its international counterparts presents another hurdle Unlike established agencies with decades of historical data, Vietnamese CRAs have a limited track record The lack of a long-term frame of reference can make it difficult for investors to fully rely on Vietnamese credit ratings, especially when compared to established international agencies with a proven track record The foreign investors might prioritize ratings from international agencies they are familiar with, potentially limiting the domestic CRAs' impact on foreign currency investment.

Reliability of Vietnamese credit rating agencies

The reliability of credit rating agencies in Vietnam is on a clear upward trend, receiving increasing support from Vietnamese businesses While the system is undeniably young compared to established international systems, a number of recent developments point to a promising future for the reliability of credit ratings in Vietnam market Recent advances in the regulatory framework and the growing presence of international organizations all point towards a future of enhanced credit rating credibility The development has the potential to open up new opportunities for Vietnamese businesses looking to access capital, while promoting greater transparency and risk reduction in financial markets

Saigon Rating is one of the first credit rating organizations in Vietnam and has played a pioneering role in the development of the country's capital market Since its

36 establishment in 2015, Saigon Rating has provided investors with valuable information to make informed decisions that reduce information asymmetry and minimize risks in the market Although the influence of Saigon Rating still has many aspects, this rating company has made progress in recent times The establishment of Saigon Rating marked an important step towards a more transparent and stronger Vietnamese capital market

A key factor of credibility is the emergence of new businesses with close international relationships VIS Rating was established by founding shareholders Moody's and leading financial institutions in Vietnam, based on initiatives from the Vietnam Bond Market Association (VBMA) The collaboration creates a strong foundation of reliability by leveraging Moody's expertise in research and methodology development Since its inception in November 2021, VIS Rating has used Moody's technical expertise and international best practices to develop credit rating methodologies, establish rigorous processes, and published a number of in-depth studies VIS Rating aims to provide high-quality credit assessments to match global standards, thereby strengthening investor confidence in the Vietnamese market (Posch & Bowden, 2010)

Vietnam's reputable credit rating agencies such as FiinRatings are continuously improving their methods, strengthening their domestic reputation FiinRatings brings a unique combination of experience and expertise to the table Th established presence in the field of data analysis allows to leverage a robust data infrastructure for credit assessments The data-driven approach ensures that the ratings are grounded in objective and quantifiable information, reducing the risk of subjectivity The combined strengths of FiinRatings' data analytics capabilities and independent research methodology contribute significantly to the overall reliability of credit ratings in Vietnam This success represents an important aspect of the system's continued evolution - the emergence of domestic agents that can compete effectively with their international counterparts As agencies like FiinRatings continue to refine their methodologies and build their track record, the overall credibility of the Vietnamese credit rating system is likely to be further bolstered (Alvarenga & Varga, 2018)

However, unlike some developed markets, Vietnam is not required to use credit rating services to issue bonds (Regulations on credit ratings in Vietnam) This limits the influence and reach of the CRA, hindering the development of a comprehensive credit rating culture In addition, Vietnam's credit rating system is new compared to

37 international rating systems, meaning there is little historical data to confirm the accuracy of past ratings

The Vietnamese government is actively providing support to strengthen the credit rating system Regulations are being finalized and the Treasury Department has taken steps to improve transparency and accountability in the industry Vietnam's credit rating system is still in the process of development but is actively taking steps to overcome shortcomings (Lê, 2023)

Commentation

Vietnam's credit rating system is progressing, driven by regulatory changes promoting transparency and risk reduction The realization of credit ratings' value by businesses fosters collaboration with Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) The rise of domestic CRAs (e.g., FiinRatings, VIS Rating) provides operational expertise and a path towards system autonomy International CRAs' involvement contributes experience, aligns with global standards, and improves credit rating quality This progress strengthens Vietnam's financial system and supports its integration into the global economy.

Despite its advantages, the Vietnamese credit rating system faces limitations Businesses may opt out of credit ratings, restricting the influence of Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) The system's youth and lack of historical data compared to established international CRAs limit its credibility, especially for foreign investors As a result, CRAs in Vietnam have limited reach and impact within the financial landscape.

Research methodology

Approach

Credit rating plays a crucial role in the Vietnamese capital market by providing detailed assessments of the financial health of companies and borrowers This research aims to explore the current state of credit rating in Vietnam and identify potential development models that can enhance the efficacy of the system Employing relevant theoretical frameworks, the study delves into the factors that necessitate credit rating and analyzes the existing practices in the Vietnamese market By proposing suitable models, the research seeks to contribute to the long-term growth and stability of the capital market in Vietnam.

Firstly, the research team reviewed proven theories worldwide, spanning from the past to the present, regarding the necessity and role of credit rating in the development of national economies Specifically, we examined in detail the impacts of credit rating on the capital market and the issue of information asymmetry in Asian countries with developed capital markets and similar market characteristics to Vietnam Based on this, the research team synthesized existing knowledge on the necessity and current situation, the similarities and differences, and then evaluated whether credit rating is necessary for the capital market in Vietnam and its direct and indirect influences on the capital market and the national economy, as well as the issue of information asymmetry

In addition, the research team simultaneously analyzed and classified the models of credit rating applied by these countries, namely South Korea, China, Japan, and Singapore, and the effectiveness of these models in the capital market This analysis was conducted to consider and draw conclusions regarding the similarities, differences, suitability, and effectiveness of these models when applied in Vietnam The ultimate goal is to propose the most suitable credit rating model for the development of the capital market and the national economy in Vietnam at the present time

The reason the research team selected these countries, such as South Korea, China, Japan, and Singapore, as the main points of analysis in this study, is that the current capital market in Vietnam shares many similarities with these countries during their early stages of development In terms of market structure, the market capitalization-to-GDP ratio is still low, market liquidity is limited, and individual investors predominantly hold a significant advantage, while institutional investors have limited participation in the market The current capital market in Vietnam is in a developmental phase, with relatively low per capita income, and enterprises require high leverage for strong development The primary trading products in the capital market are stocks,

39 bonds, and capital sources from credit institutions Additionally, the government or policy-making entities play an important role in guiding and developing the market

All five countries have been deeply integrated into the global economy They participate in free trade agreements, attract foreign direct investment (FDI), and their listed companies increasingly diversify their business activities in international markets Moreover, the participation of foreign investors plays a crucial role in increasing market liquidity and efficiency

Furthermore, Chapter 3 of this research provides an analysis of the history of credit rating formation and development in Vietnam, important events, decrees, regulations, and laws in the past related to the process of credit rating formation and development Subsequently, we analyze the current situation of credit rating in Vietnam in terms of reliability, accessibility, and market demand for using credit rating results through various research sources

By highlighting the necessity of credit rating and its impacts on the capital market and information asymmetry in the market, as well as the indirect effects on the national economy and the current status of credit rating development in the Vietnamese capital market, we present opportunities and challenges in the development of credit rating in Vietnam Moreover, we identify the credit rating model that should be applied to the Vietnamese capital market after analyzing experiences from international sources.

Data

To investigate the need for credit ratings in Vietnam's capital market, we conducted a survey that gathered primary data on market participants' perspectives The survey assessed the current state of credit ratings through a structured set of questions using a five-point Likert scale The responses captured market insights and expert evaluations, providing valuable input for the development of credit ratings in this emerging market.

Secondary data were collected from scientific research papers, articles, and specialized journals analyzing the importance of credit rating for capital markets across countries

During the late 20th and 21st centuries, expert opinions and data were used to analyze the necessity of credit rating for capital markets globally By examining previous studies and leveraging insights from countries with existing credit rating systems, this research explored the opportunities and challenges associated with implementing credit rating in Vietnam's capital market The analysis included models, the impact of credit rating on capital markets, and lessons learned from other nations, enabling the formulation of recommendations for the formation and development of credit rating in Vietnam.

Sample

Our sample from current capital market participants in Vietnam, aims to provide some more objective perspectives from market experts on the current status and usage needs of credit rating in the capital market These subjects are classified by years of experience, financial major, current position and representing individuals, corporations or financial institutions, the goals of the study and our commitment to sharing survey results with participants were clearly communicated in the description of the web-based questionnaire we developed

Descriptive statistics involve arranging, summarizing, and presenting data to make it meaningful This includes using measures like mean, median, mode, charts, and tables to concisely display complex information By analyzing data through descriptive statistics, researchers can identify trends and patterns, assisting in informed decision-making and drawing inferences about the sample studied Moreover, these statistics lay the groundwork for further statistical analysis, allowing for more comprehensive data exploration and understanding.

4.3.2 Reliability and Content Validity Analysis

Cronbach's alpha (α) measures a questionnaire's reliability by assessing the consistency of individual items within a scale A high Cronbach's α, typically over 0.7, indicates excellent reliability, suggesting the items consistently measure the same underlying concept Internal consistency is adequate for values between 0.5 and 0.7, but caution is advised Items with Cronbach's α values below 0.35 should be removed to enhance reliability (Hair, 2010)

On the other hand, validity, more especially content validity, describes how well a measuring scale Comparatively, the degree to which a measurement scale faithfully captures the intended notion or construct is known as validity, and more especially content validity Validity, as defined by (Malhotra, 2002), Constructing items that accurately reflect the intended dimensions of the concept or construct is necessary to ensure that the assessment achieves content validity, which is the ability to capture the precise domain of material that it seeks to represent

In empirical research, the measurement procedure is founded on the principles of reliability and content validity They guarantee that the tools are utilized to precisely capture the substance of those notions in addition to measurement of those concepts in a consistent manner (Vakili, 2018) Thus, a strong basis for analyzing and extrapolating the study's conclusions is created

Findings

Realibility of data and descriptive statistic

After about three weeks of conducting the survey, we received a total of 132 responses related to the study that the information collected by sampling was a representative number of the above subjects We collected and measured participants' suggestion data using a 5-point Likert Scale

The research data was collected through structured questionnaires that were designed based on the profiles of customers The table below displays the frequency distribution of the sample structure characteristics, and the following provides a general description of the participants' characteristics:

Year of experience Rely on the result from Table There was not a significant difference between those, with less than 1 year (22.7%) greatly outnumbering 2-3 years (18.2%), 3-5 years (22.7%), 5-10 years (16.7%) and over 10 years (19.7%)

Current position The research participants were mostly of junior manager (44.5%), senior manager (40.9%), top Manager & above (13.6%)

Represent for The majority of participants are individuals, comprising 56.1% of the survey 10.6% are financial institution, and 33.3% are corporation

Financial major The Institution investor is the most frequently utilized, accounting for 46.3% of respondents Issuers are follows with 40.9%, Regulator with 9.8% 3% of participants are Underwriter

After using Cronbach's α value to evaluate the consistency of variables from the survey

We had to remove 1 item in the Necessity variable when their Cronbach's α value did not reach the sample's minimum consistency level (Vaske, 2016) After rejecting them, the remaining variables were between 0.79 and 0.89 and the lowest corrected item-total correlation was higher than 0.3 Therefore, all remaining variables were internally consistent and reliable to conduct in this study

The research examines the current status of credit ratings in Vietnam through collected data From there, analyze data from domestic credit rating agencies (CRAs) to assess their impact on investor behavior and overall market health

According to market research, an overwhelming majority of investors (over 90%) place significant importance on Vietnam's corporate creditworthiness when making investment decisions This high reliance demonstrates the trust investors have in the credibility and financial standing of Vietnamese companies The remaining 8% of investors remain neutral on the issue, while a negligible percentage (less than 2%) disregard creditworthiness in their investment strategies.

Figure 3: Know about Credit rating agencies

Despite familiarity with credit rating agencies (70% of investors), knowledge about specific domestic and foreign institutions remains limited Approximately 37% of investors recognize domestic agencies like Fiin Ratings, Saigon Ratings, and VIS Ratings, while 33% are aware of international organizations Notably, a significant number of investors (nearly 1/3) lack understanding of these agencies, highlighting the ongoing development and need for improvement within the industry.

45 of credit rating companies, so there are still many limitations in completing credit rating assessments in the Vietnam market

Given the important role of credit institutions in creating favorable conditions for investors, this study investigates behavior in the Vietnam market through 8 research questions These questions delve into investors' needs and understanding of credit ratings, to assess their impact on financial decisions

Figure 4: Assessing the creditworthiness of Vietnam corporations and government entities

There was a strong consensus in the survey data, with 91% of respondents agreeing that credit ratings function primarily to assess the creditworthiness of Vietnam corporations and government agencies Only a small number of survey respondents (1.5%) disagreed with this opinion

Figure 5: Providing independent evaluations to investors and lenders

Through surveys with Vietnam capital market members, it has been shown that investors have great confidence in the independent assessment provided by credit ratings The number of respondents who disagreed was very small (1.5%) or were not sure (15.2%)

Figure 6: Reducing borrowing costs for Vietnam entities based on their rating

Unlike previous questions that showed strong consensus, investors' opinions differed more significantly on the impact of credit ratings on borrowing costs for Vietnam businesses Only 60.6% of respondents agreed that credit ratings directly reduce borrowing costs for Vietnam businesses based on their ratings This difference is reflected in the majority (34.8%) of those who remain uncertain, suggesting a lack of clarity or a complex interaction of factors that influence borrowing costs The remaining 4.5% who disagreed may point to cases where other financial metrics or market conditions may have a greater impact on the credit rating impact

Figure 7: Facilitating foreign investment by offering trusted risk assessments

The survey data shows an emphasis on the importance of reliable risk assessment in attracting foreign investment More than 81% of respondents agreed that foreign investors prioritize transparency from Vietnam businesses This is consistent with the long-standing principle that foreign capital flows are often predicated on a clear understanding of market risks and opportunities

Figure 8: Contributing to transparency and effeciency in the Vietnam capital market

The results largely confirm the belief that credit ratings play an important role in promoting the transparency and efficiency of Vietnam's capital market This view achieved the highest level of agreement, with 33.33% of participants expressing complete agreement More than 54.5% of investors agreed with this statement,

48 emphasizing the widespread recognition of the positive impact of credit ratings However, a small but notable portion (10.6%) of respondents remained unsure

Figure 9: Supporting regulatory authorities in monitoring and managing credit risk

Credit ratings play a vital role in aiding regulators in monitoring and managing credit risks in Vietnam A substantial majority of respondents (86.4%) recognize this role, with a significant portion (21.2%) strongly agreeing and a larger group (65.2%) agreeing Nonetheless, it is noteworthy that a minority of respondents (13.6%) maintain a neutral (12.1%) or dissenting (1.5%) perspective on the matter.

Figure 10: Promoting investor confidence by offering credible risk analysis

Nearly 80% of respondents expressed this view, emphasizing the important role of understanding potential risks in promoting a sense of security and trust in the market However, a portion of the investor group (18.2%) remains undecided and a small minority (3%) does not even agree

Figure 11: Encouraging responsible financial practices among Vietnam entities

The potential impact of credit ratings on the financial performance of Vietnamese businesses was investigated, with 77.3% of respondents agreeing that credit ratings can foster responsible financial practices.

Figure 12: Realibility of Credit rating results

Summarize finding

The analysis emphasized the necessity central role of credit ratings in providing standardized and objective assessment of an issuer's ability to meet its financial obligations Through conducting surveys on needs and thoughts from experts in the financial field, this finding emphasizes the need for a specific credit rating mechanism through which credit ratings can impact borrowing costs, directly affect to capital market in the Vietnam context

This study highlights a critical issue in Vietnam's financial landscape: a substantial lack of trust in domestic credit rating agencies (DCRAs) among key financial market stakeholders This study implies that there may be a disagreement between DCRA judgments and senior finance executives' views Further analysis is required to establish the core causes of this lack of confidence and analyze its impact on the system's ability to provide reliable creditworthiness information

Currently, there are four main credit rating models being utilized in global financial markets Firstly, there are two models known as Government Establish and Manage Credit Rating Institutions and Domestic Credit Rating Agencies Boost Their Activities These models are currently being implemented in the capital market of China Secondly, there is a model involving the branches of Moody's, Standard & Poor's, and Fitch operating in Vietnam This model is currently being implemented in Singapore and has shown promising results Lastly, there is a model where Domestic Credit Rating Agencies (DCRAs) follow the structure of a joint stock company, with the parent company being Global Credit Rating Agencies (GCRAs) Currently, South Korea is effectively applying and implementing this model

Discussion and Conclusion

Interpretation of implementations

6.1.1 The necessity of credit ratings in Vietnam's capital market

This study emphasizes the importance of credit ratings in developing Vietnam's strong capital market Investors can obtain a unified and objective assessment of the issuer's financial situation through credit ratings Investor confidence is increased through this transparency, allowing for informed investment choices, credit ratings can lead to cheaper borrowing costs because investors view well-rated borrowers as less risky Furthermore, credit ratings directly address the problem of information asymmetry in developing markets by bridging the knowledge gap between investors and debtors This encourages confidence and efficient capital allocation in the market

Therefore, this study emphasizes the importance of credit ratings for the development of a healthy and dynamic capital market in Vietnam Credit ratings support financial stability and economic progress by strengthening investor confidence, addressing information asymmetry, and facilitating efficient capital allocation

Our research underscores the vital role of credit ratings in driving economic growth within Vietnam's capital markets We provide substantial evidence and in-depth analysis to elucidate the significance of a robust credit rating system for Vietnam's sustained economic progress Our focus on the Vietnamese context ensures that our findings are directly applicable to the nation's unique economic environment.

6.1.2 The Current status of credit rating in Vietnam capital market

Vietnam's credit rating system is progressing, with recent regulatory changes enhancing transparency and mitigating financial risks Businesses acknowledge the significance of credit ratings and actively engage with Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) Notably, local CRAs such as FiinRatings have emerged, contributing to the growth of the system.

SaigonRating and VIS Rating helps strengthen the autonomy and expertise of the system However, limitations still exist in the development of credit ratings Unlike mandatory systems, Vietnamese businesses can refuse credit ratings Vietnamese CRAs

53 are also new compared to their long-standing international counterparts, with their extensive historical data hindering investor confidence, especially foreign investors

According to the data collected above, the study also points out an additional problem: distrust in Vietnam's domestic credit rating agencies (DCRA) among key stakeholders in the financial system Research points to a gap in opinion between DCRA and financial professionals Skepticism among industry influencers, with nearly all responses from those with more than five years of experience showing uncertainty, points to the need to improve Vietnam's credit rating The loss of trust has exposed a fundamental flaw in Vietnam's credit rating framework Distrust in DCRA has a significant and material impact on Vietnam's financial landscape It is believed to have the potential to reduce the efficiency of credit allocation as lenders' decisions may be influenced by hesitation in providing loans based solely on DCRA ratings A lack of confidence in the integrity of DCRA will affect the transparency and stability of the financial system Potential conflicts of interest are also a major challenge to trust Overreliance on issuance fees to generate revenue may raise questions about the objectivity of DCRA ratings.

Challenges and opportunities for credit rating in the Vietnamese market

Credit rating agencies will also face competitive pressure from international credit rating organizations The competitive relationship between international rating agencies and domestic rating agencies will be affected because the customer segments and rating standards of the two groups are very different

International credit rating agencies primarily assess countries and large corporations seeking funds in global markets Conversely, local agencies target domestic businesses and seek to mobilize capital within the country Ranking methodologies vary significantly, with international agencies relying on global data and local agencies using national-specific scales Notably, in certain markets, credit rating agencies cooperate rather than compete, fostering a complementary relationship.

Competition in products and services mainly comes from credit rating organizations in the same industry and businesses providing information and consulting services These organizations compete with each other in the domestic business segment, and especially in industry groups with a large number of businesses issuing large-scale bonds such as real estate and construction materials Investment funds, investment banks, and securities companies can build their own credit rating systems and provide risk consulting services to investors However, the level of confidence in product quality can vary widely, an important thing is that credit rating organizations are allowed to issue rating certificates and use them as legally valid documents when submitting issuance documents, while consulting companies do not have this function

A challenge for local credit rating agencies is limited access to information for businesses Normally, the issuer must provide full information related to business operations and financial situation, including relevant information about business advantages so that the rating organization can accurately assess the level of their actual risks However, due to the nature of the data or the issuer not trusting enough to share information, the evaluation results may be misleading Large deviations can occur for businesses that are not required to disclose information such as state-owned corporations and unlisted businesses

Vietnamese credit rating agencies can benefit from the growth potential of the domestic bond market and from new government regulations related to the bond market Regarding the growth potential of the market, the credit rating market has a close correlation with the capital market

During the past time, the demand for ratings has grown much However The number of businesses rated by SaigonRatings and FiinRatings in recent years is just 30 businesses, accounting for about 7.5% of the number of companies listed on the stock market

Nation Number of rating agencies

Number of businesses that have been ranked Note

FiinRatings Source: ADB, 2020 Table 6 : Number of local credit rating agencies and number of rated businesses

Despite Vietnam's economic growth, credit ratings remain underutilized in the local market In 2021, private placements dominated the bond issuance landscape with 97.6% of the market, while public issuance accounted for only 2.4% This disparity suggests that credit ratings are not widely considered when accessing financing or making investment decisions Both issuers and investors prefer negotiated settlements, and historical bond defaults in Vietnam have likely contributed to the low level of reliance on credit ratings.

The legal framework surrounding credit rating requirements is being developed Prior to 2023, credit rating agencies operated largely outside the purview of formal regulations However, Decree No 155, which came into effect in January 2023, marked a turning point by introducing mandatory credit rating requirements for public bond issuance (Clause 2, Article 19 of Decree 155) With public bond issuances subject to credit rating assessment, businesses seeking capital through this tool will need to contact credit rating agencies to obtain the ratings The regulatory framework surrounding credit ratings is likely to undergo further refinement as the bond market matures in Vietnam As the market evolves and trading volumes increase, the role of credit ratings in informing investment decisions will become increasingly important The regulatory environment will adapt to encompass other types of debt instruments, potentially requiring credit ratings for specific categories of private placements in the future

Research limitations

Research on the necessity of credit ratings in the Vietnam market still has many limitations First, the quantitative approach in our investigation was conducted with a relatively small sample size The small sample size of survey participants may affect the generalizability of our findings to relevant industry audiences in the Vietnam market This limitation could be improved if the sample size were increased so that we could achieve a higher level of representativeness and confidence in our results Increasing the sample size would improve the results of the broader statistical analysis and reveal a deeper understanding of market participants' perceptions and experiences of credit rating practices One of the limitations of this research is the reliance on easily obtaining public information, which may not encompass all pertinent factors including credit ratings Important nuances or contextual details that could impact credit assessments might be overlooked when relying solely on readily accessible data This limitation underscores the necessity for more comprehensive and nuanced approaches to credit rating analysis, including access to proprietary or less readily available information sources Another research limitation is the low response rate observed in our survey despite a substantial volume of distributed surveys, which created for us the challenge of collecting data from the responses we received.

Recommendation

The research suggests further exploration based on additional variables to enhance the authenticity and creditworthiness assessment of credit raters in developing countries Moreover, the study proposes methodologies for future research beyond surveys, incorporating direct interviews and increasing information accessibility to expand the sample size and achieve more robust statistical results This paper establishes the framework for additional investigation into the Vietnam credit rating system Future research should explore the precise reasons for the lack of trust in DCRAs, considering the perspectives of both DCRAs and financial institutions Research might look into the potential benefits and drawbacks of using various credit assessment models in the Vietnam setting

In this section, we will analyze the proposed models for the development of credit ratings in the Vietnamese capital market based on the theoretical foundations analyzed and assessed in the previous research sections

6.4.1.1 Government establish and manage credit rating institutions

Likewise to state auditing, the establishment and management of credit rating organizations by the government may bring various benefits

Firstly, considering objectivity and transparency, credit rating conducted by independent state agencies, unaffected by personal interests, ensures high transparency in outcomes This can also be a tool to enhance investor trust; a reputable credit rating system helps investors have sufficient information to assess credit risks of organizations and businesses, thereby making more informed investment decisions This method also promotes market discipline, putting pressure on organizations and businesses to improve financial capacity and management Additionally, this method supports the government in policy formulation by providing crucial financial information about organizations and businesses

However, there are still some potential limitations Regarding costs, establishing and operating a credit rating system under a state model requires significant financial resources for implementation and maintenance This type of model must adhere to rules and policies, sometimes leading to inflexibility in reflecting rapid market changes The risk of abuse of power by individuals or organizations and conflicts of interest among stakeholders is also a concern when implementing this model For some foreign investors, they may place more trust in international credit rating organizations in certain cases rather than relying on subjective assessments from a single country

In practical terms, looking at the case in China, Domestic Credit Rating Agencies (DCRAs) continue to provide credit ratings for the government, businesses, and other entities issuing debt instruments, contributing significantly to the development of the capital market and the national economy However, the ownership structure of CRAs in China is primarily influenced by government regulations Most CRAs are established as joint-stock companies This structure allows for a mix of government-controlled and private shareholders This demonstrates the tight control of the Chinese government over credit ratings Some foreign Global Credit Rating Agencies (GCRAs) hold shares in DCRAs in China; however, the number of shares is minimal, indicating that foreign integration does not significantly affect the credit rating industry in China

6.4.1.2 Branches of Moody's, Standard & Poor's, and Fitch working in

When applying the branch model of international credit rating agencies to the credit rating activities in the Vietnamese capital market, several hypothetical situations may occur as follows:

International credit rating agencies such as S&P, Moody's, and Fitch Ratings are large corporations with extensive experience and expertise in credit rating They leverage advanced technologies and methodologies to accurately assess the financial situation of businesses in Vietnam Additionally, their strong brands and international reputations help Vietnam attract more foreign investment, thereby enhancing market efficiency, liquidity, and capital flow, contributing significantly to the country's economic development Moreover, key stakeholders in this credit rating field have the ability to access ample capital for investment in credit rating activities in the Vietnamese capital market

Similar to the model of state-established and managed credit rating organizations, the application of branches of international credit rating agencies often entails higher service costs compared to other models In some cases, credit rating activities may be influenced to some extent by challenges in adapting to the Vietnamese capital market due to cultural differences, potentially resulting in credit rating outcomes that are not entirely suitable for the local context

Using the example of credit rating development in Singapore, Standard & Poor's (S&P), Moody's, and Fitch Ratings have significantly increased market openness in the capital market in general and the bond market in particular Transparency has improved due to support from GCRAs, leading to increased bond market trading volumes However, there are still concerns that traditional rating models may not fully capture the nuances of Singapore's dynamic economy The evolving presence of international CRAs in the region presents both opportunities and challenges that Singapore's financial system must navigate carefully

6.4.1.3 Current credit rating agencies boost their activities

When developing the credit rating model in Vietnam based on improving the operations of existing rating agencies, private credit rating companies can be more flexible and innovative in developing credit rating products and services, aiming to provide results and services that meet the needs of the capital market The service costs of these companies are typically lower than state and international credit rating models

However, sometimes private rating companies, especially newly established ones, may lack expertise in credit rating compared to other models in the market Additionally, freedom can sometimes lead to potential risks such as the possibility of credit rating manipulation by parties involved for personal gain or market manipulation

Vietnam's credit rating system has made strides in enhancing transparency and market accessibility, but requires further advancements in reliability, efficiency, and transparency Upgrading the current operations of Domestic Credit Rating Agencies (DCRAs) will align them with the rapid development of Vietnam's capital market and foster a more robust financial landscape.

6.4.1.4 DCRAs follow the model of a joint stock company, the parent company is GCRAs

This model combines the advantages of both private credit rating and international rating models These companies inherit the most advanced technologies and methodologies from their parent companies according to international standards, leveraging investment capital from their parent companies to develop credit rating services in the Vietnamese market This model indirectly enhances the credit rating capabilities of domestic companies, thereby contributing to the development of the credit rating market in Vietnam

Drawing from the experience of South Korea, the four major credit rating companies operating in South Korea are Korea Ratings, with 73.55% ownership by Fitch, KIS with 50% plus 1 share from Moody's, and NICE with 100% ownership Most major credit rating companies in South Korea have significant ownership from leading international credit rating companies In the case of NICE, the company itself operates globally, with a network of over 10,000 employees in more than 20 countries in information services, including credit rating The credit rating system in South Korea continues to operate effectively, providing accurate and objective assessments of clients, significantly contributing to credit risk management, reducing asymmetric information, and fostering confidence in the capital market and the national economy with the ability to integrate and adapt to the market

6.4.2 Appropriate solutions are proposed by the research team

Based on analysis and discussions of various credit rating development models and the current situation of the capital market in Vietnam, our research group proposes the utilization of a combined credit rating model involving both Domestic Credit Rating

Agencies (DCRAs) and Global Credit Rating Agencies (GCRAs) Specifically, the GCRAs will act as parent companies, holding significant stakes in DCRAs

This model can leverage the expertise and experience of GCRAs, capturing the specific characteristics of the Vietnamese capital market, enhancing transparency and credibility of the credit rating system of DCRAs in the Vietnamese capital market This model combines international standards and local knowledge to ensure consistency, tailored to the Vietnamese capital market context amidst international integration, contributing to attracting foreign investment Based on the practical experience from South Korea in developing the credit rating system, this combination has helped South Korea become one of the leading countries in credit rating and capital markets Additionally, this model promotes natural development of credit rating in the market with high objectivity and accuracy, minimizing the risk of heavy influence, abuse of power, and conflicts of interest

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