Báo cáo nghiên cứu khoa học: The impacts of FDI inflows on labor market – evidence from Vietnam

ABSTRACTS The relationship between Foreign Direct Investment FDI and the labor market has been a central theme in economic discussions.. Employing a Multivariate Regression Analysis with

Rationale of the study

In this era of global economic integration, international money can flow into a country through various methods, including Official Development Assistance (ODA), international loans, Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and more Among these, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) plays a crucial role in the global economy, particularly in developing countries, due to the undeniable positive impacts it has on both the host and home countries' economies These impacts include job creation, increased competitiveness, higher income levels, boosted exports, improved firm revenues, and more However, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) can lead to "economic bubbles" in sensitive sectors such as real estate and the stock market in Vietnam in recent times, which can harm the national economy Moreover, if countries allow foreign companies to enter strategically important industries such as energy, natural resources, etc., the comparative advantage of that nation could be severely affected, according to an IMF report

Theoretically, among the factors that affect FDI inflow, such as low corporate tax rates, long tax holidays, and relaxed government regulations, labor has always been a primary driver for FDI due to low costs and the highly potential labor market Nevertheless, the question of how Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and labor are interconnected is still controversial

Vietnam's economic integration has been bolstered by foreign direct investment (FDI) since 1987, with inflows serving as a vital supplement to domestic investment This has resulted in a substantial surge in FDI quantity and quality In 2022, FDI net inflows reached a record $17.9 billion, surpassing the previous year's $15.66 billion Moreover, FDI is closely tied to labor trends, including employment and productivity, as evidenced by statistical analysis.

Matters concerning Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and labor are not newly discovered, and there have been quite a few studies on FDI and labor separately from many parts of the world Such studies have shed light on these subjects individually; however, they have faced two main problems: failure to provide a comprehensive assessment of the two-way relationship between FDI and labor, and not being Vietnam-based This gap has created an opportunity for this thesis to explore: (i) the impact of FDI to labor variables in Vietnam, and (ii) to forecast the results of FDI and labor variables in Vietnam.

Research questions

To further contribute to the existing theoretical framework of foreign direct investment (FDI), this study focuses on the following fundamental research question:

- How does Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) influence labor, and what perspectives are considered in assessing these effects?

- Using the answer above, what implicit solutions can be inferred to stimulate the potential growth of each?

Objective and Scope of the study

- The object of the study is the impacr of FDI to the labor market in Vietnam

+ About space: Effects of FDI inflows on labor market are presented for Vietnam

+ About time: The period from 2006 – 2023

- Research data: Data is collected from the World Bank, General Statistics Office of Vietnam, Statistical Yearbook.

Structure of the study

The content of the research topic is organized into chapters to address the issues outlined in the research objectives The study includes the rationale for attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) capital and the theoretical basis for the research model concerning the relationship between FDI and Vietnam's labor market

From a theoretical framework to analyze the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on employment levels, wages, and working conditions in Vietnam

The main body of the thesis consists of five chapters:

Chapter 3: Research methodology and hypothesis development

Chapter 4: Data analysis and research findings

This chapter aims to provide the relevant literature for this study First, let's discuss the fundamental concepts of the two subjects: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and labor in a general context Second, the theoretical frameworks utilized in the past and currently for researching the interactions between FDI and labor Upon reviewing the existing literature in Vietnam, the findings have been gathered and summarized to aid in the development of the research model and hypotheses in the subsequent chapter of the study.

Basic concepts regarding FDI and labor

Concepts of foreign direct investment

FDI stands for Foreign Direct Investment and is a key element in developing a globally integrated economy Since Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has only recently entered Vietnam, its fundamental concept still poses a question for us to explore The definition of FDI can be viewed from various perspectives, both locally and globally This report will start by explaining the fundamental concepts of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) that are universally recognized, then shift to Vietnam's perspective, and ultimately highlight key characteristics to provide a basic definition of FDI From a global perspective, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) can be defined as

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) denotes an international investment where a party acquires a long-term interest in an enterprise in another economy, fostering a lasting relationship with significant investor influence (IMF, 1993) It involves a minimum 10% equity stake in a commercial organization (Russia, India, RBI, 2017) Despite varying definitions, FDI commonly entails capital movement and securing an interest in foreign firms Vietnam's legal definition (2000) highlights capital inflow and compliance with host country laws.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) involves the transfer of capital across borders for production and business purposes, allowing investors to gain ownership and control of the investment It encompasses a range of characteristics, including the movement of capital, investor ownership, and compliance with host country regulations These defining features collectively contribute to a widely accepted conceptualization of FDI.

There are various ways of categorizing FDI We can classify Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) based on forms of entry, legal structures, investment objectives, investors' viewpoints, and other criteria Each country or geographical region has its own opinion regarding the number and names of different types of FDI In this section, the categories of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) will be discussed Internationally, FDI is divided into two categories based on investment purposes and intrusion In Vietnam, on the other hand, we have legal provisions to regulate and categorize this type of investment Therefore, in order to provide the most comprehensive perspective, we will start with the classification based on an international viewpoint:

Table 2.1: Types of FDI based on intrusion form

FDI modes Definition and main characteristics

Developing countries are hubs for assembly activities due to their long-term focus and emphasis on factors such as low taxes, homegrown technological development, robust institutions, and comparative advantages These factors make assembly operations in developing countries more cost-effective and competitive, attracting investments and contributing to economic growth.

Acquiring an existing foreign company M&A is more suitable preferred by developed countries thanks to its sensitiveness to short run variations and responsiveness to between the origin and destination countries, including investment cost and geographical and cultural ones (R.B Davies et al., 2015)

Table 2.2: Types of FDI based on investment purposes

FDI modes Definition and main characteristics

Vertical FDI relates to endowment seeking motives with firms breaking up the supply chain to take advantage of lower factor costs abroad (Herger Nils and Steve McCorriston, 2016) These investments typically flow from developed to developing countries which are relatively well-endowed with unskilled labor

Acquiring an existing foreign company M&A is more suitable preferred by developed countries thanks to its sensitiveness to short run variations and responsiveness to between the origin and destination countries, including investment cost and geographical and cultural ones (R.B Davies et al., 2015)

Conglomerate investment occurs when firms are neither horizontally related through sharing the same industry nor vertically connected through the supply-chain (Tientip Subhanij,

2016) The investment mode is made to acquire an unrelated business abroad

As described from the two tables above, there are a variety of ways to sort FDI Each FDI mode has its distinct features and is suitable for disparate national classes However, eventually, they must still response to the main characteristics of FDI, which are law-compliance, capital movement across the country’s border and transfer of management rights

While being fairly new to the integration period, Vietnam also has its own way of FDI assortment, which is slightly different from that of the world This categorization is clarified in the Article 21 of our Investment Law (2005), which indicates five modes: economic entity with 100% capital of foreign investors, joint venture enterprises, Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) and its derivatives, business cooperation contract (BCC) and cross-border M&A

The first FDI mode according to our Investment Law is an economic entity with 100% capital of foreign investors This is the most traditional and popular form of FDI, with which the investors, along with focusing on exploiting the advantages of new investment locations, strive to find ways to apply technological advances and management experience to achieve the highest efficiency

Economic entities with 100% capital of foreign investors, obviously, have some undeniable advantages that can raise it to such strong preference Since the host country does not need to invest capital, it can help avoid the risks in business, earn immediately land rent, tax and create jobs for workers Investors can also actively invest and compete thanks to the independence of proprietary However, the cons exist on the other side as it is difficult for the host country to gain experience in management and technology, to control foreign investment partners and hardly profitable

Another form of FDI according to our law is joint venture enterprise between domestic investors and foreign investors This is such a common form in the world so far The advantages of joint venture companies are both open for investors and the host countries For the investors, they are not only the risk-sharing and solutions for capital shortages, but also a great contribution to technology innovation and employment upturn From the nation’s standpoint, joint venture enterprises also help control the partners easier in comparison to economic entity with 100% foreign capital and accelerate the process of participating in integrated world However, as every form has its own drawbacks, this type of FDI can bring back conflicts in management and low management level for the host country

Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT), Build-Transfer-Operate (BTO), and Build-Transfer (BT) are FDI modes involving infrastructure projects BOT contracts specify a period during which the investor builds and operates the project before transferring it to the host country without compensation BTO and BT are variants of BOT, with differences in the sequence of steps These modes facilitate infrastructure development by attracting foreign investment and expertise.

The BOT (Build-Operate-Transfer) model offers significant advantages, primarily in attracting investment for infrastructure projects This form of financing enables the host country to recover project costs over the long term, alleviating pressure on its budget Additionally, upon the project's transfer, the country gains fully operational infrastructure, freeing up resources for further economic development However, the BOT model also presents challenges, including the inherent risk associated with shifts in national policies and the potential difficulty in obtaining advanced technology and management practices.

Concepts of labor

The definition of labor is such an open topic to the world from the very beginning In the long history path, labor is defined as “the origin of all the commodities and goods; the combination of a human being’s both mental and physical capabilities to produce a value in use (or tangible features of goods which can serve and fulfill their desires)” (Karl Marx, 1867) In a simpler word, it is a crucial part which contributes mainly to the process of production Under capitalism, labor is also considered as a peculiar commodity, which is sold with its own price We call the price of labor as “wages” Despite of the distant past, the critique of Karl Marx still remains its significance until recently Each country in the world may vary in labor force size, labor laws and some other economic factors such as business cycle, migration of labor supply and wage rate However, the definition of labor by Karl Marx is among the mutual shares that cannot be remarkably different and can be regarded as a standard when questioning what labor is In Vietnam, nowadays, one of the most credible sources to provide information about the concept of labor is the Labor Law Code issued in 2012 by the Congress However, there has not yet been an exact definition of labor Other than that, the concepts of laborer, employers, labor disputes, wages and such alike are clearly illustrated and regulated The next parts of this thesis will bring in the most precise information on them so that the concept of labor is more strongly supported and thoroughly understood

2.1.2.2 Price of labor – Wages and salaries

Wages and salaries are generally determined by labor output and market conditions Vietnam's Labor Law Code defines wages as compensation based on productivity Despite common misconceptions, nominal wages (cash payments) differ from real wages, which represent the purchasing power of nominal wages Real wages provide a true reflection of living standards, making them the actual goal for workers The equation RW = NW/CPI illustrates the relationship between real wages (RW) and nominal wages (NW), with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicating the inflation rate.

In Vietnam, there is a policy issued to take real wages into serious consideration, which is the application of minimum wages As illustrated above, since the real wages are calculated based on both the nominal income and CPI index, the minimum wage policy appears as the insurance for the labor’s living standards However, in FDI enterprises in Vietnam, there arises a problem of lower annual economic growth rate in comparison with the rate of raising minimum wages Consequently, this pushes those enterprises to the burden of balancing between law compliance and benefits

2.1.2.3 Efficiency of labor – Labor productivity

According to the International Labor Organization (ILO): “Labor productivity represents the amount of output per unit of input” (ILO, 2012) While the output is measured in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the number of employed persons reflects the volume of input Labor productivity is essentially linked to promoting economic growth since the increase in labor productivity means more output to be created within the same period of time Economists, therefore, usually use labor productivity as an important indicator relating to human capital to back up their measurement of production process’s efficiency The formula for calculating labor productivity below is used by ILO, and will continue to be used in this report based on the figures from Vietnam from 2006 to 2023:

Vietnam's labor market presents a complex picture, marked by both undeniable achievements and significant challenges Recognizing the crucial role of labor in national development, the government has prioritized addressing these issues through various public forums An increased in labor force participation: A growing proportion (76%) of the working-age population actively participates in the labor force; Shifting labor structure: The agricultural sector's workforce has decreased to 40%, indicating progress towards industrialization and modernization; Low unemployment: Vietnam boasts a low unemployment rate, particularly in urban areas (around 3%) (Doan, Mau Diep 2018); Moreover, a steady growth in worker income and reduced gender discrimination reflect a more equitable and prosperous labor market Also, more Vietnamese workers are securing jobs abroad, contributing valuable remittances, knowledge, and skills

Despite these advancements, there are still many concerns remain Firstly, a surplus of low-skilled labor persists in agriculture and rural areas, leading to inefficient allocation and a predominance of jobs requiring minimal technical expertise Secondly, a significant number of college graduates struggle to find employment, suggesting a potential mismatch between education and labor market demands

The report underscores the need for a comprehensive strategy that capitalizes on Vietnam's labor force strengths while addressing its shortcomings Recognizing the complex interplay between FDI and labor, the research suggests that solutions aimed at improving both factors hold the key to propelling Vietnam's economic growth and development.

Theoretical background on how FDI affects labor

FDI’s direct effects model by S KARLSSON ET AL (2009)

To better understand the effects of FDI on the host country, S KARLSSON ET AL (2009) has estimated the basic model as below:

Table 2.3: Description of variables in basic model of FDI

𝐹𝑖𝑟𝑚 𝑖𝑡 A vector of lagged firm characteristics, i.e firm size measured by employment, the export share of total sales, labor productivity, average wage and capital intensity

𝑂𝑤𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑠ℎ𝑖𝑝 𝑖 Ownership dummy variables indicating the four ownership categories 𝑌𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑡 Year dummy variables

𝐼𝑛𝑑𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑦 𝑗 Industry dummy variables at the four-digit level

With the model and the analyses from China – our neighbor country, we suggests that both foreign and private firms display considerably higher job growth than non-private domestic firms in China

Or in other word, the number of foreign firms, which is affected by FDI inflows, directly influence the employment Indirectly speaking, we can interpret that FDI inflows do impact on employment, in one way or another Whether the result is the same in the case of Vietnam or not will be analyzed in the second chapter of this study However, we can predict a similar scenario happening in Vietnam due to similarities in culture, economy and recent rate of attracting FDI between the two countries

According to the wage bargaining approach, reduced transportation costs across countries, technological improvements, and the globally declining trend of labor unions, put multinational companies in a better position - if not superior - in wage bargaining Multinational companies are partially or fully able to shift their production and services across different host countries (the mobility advantage) Relative to capital, labor is subject to more political restrictions and to explicit and implicit barriers including home bias (e.g culture, language, and working environment), boundaries between countries, limited skills of labor, and uncertainty in other markets (Tintin,

The Cobb-Douglas production function, characterized by its non-linear relationship between inputs and outputs, provides a sound theoretical framework for this study Its simplicity and applicability make it a valuable tool for analyzing production processes.

Table 2.4: Description of variables in Cobb-Douglas production function

𝛼 and 1 – 𝛼 Parameters of elasticity showing responsiveness of output to a unit amount of K and L

A Set of other variables (such as FDI or R&D)

The function (1) is used for the back-up of analysis of effect of FDI on the productivity of labor Therefore, it can be written as:

Productivity of labor is considered a dependent variable in order to isolate the effect of FDI on capital intensity As usual, the return to capital by FDI is taken back aboard as a payment to the owners In the opposition, the impacts of FDI in such developing countries as Vietnam can be remarkable if intangible assets of foreigners are left to domestic economy through technology transfer, improving managerial and labor skill By taking a log on both sides, a concave form of the equation (2) is expanded and conducted: log𝑌

Previous studies on the impact between FDI and labor in Vietnam

Foreign direct investment (FDI) plays a crucial role in Vietnam's economic development According to Nguyen (1970) “Employment mobility of FDI workers in Vietnam: New evidence from recent surveys" (p.35), while FDI firms represent a small portion (2.4%) of total businesses, they contribute significantly, employing 5.6% of the workforce and generating a substantial share of national revenue (25.5%) From the following statements, we will continue to explore the characteristics of the FDI workforce and the broader challenges and opportunities Vietnam faces with its deep integration into the global economy

Figure 2.1: FDI firms' share in firms, employment, and revenue

Referencing Nguyen (2021) “Employment mobility of FDI workers in Vietnam: New evidence from recent surveys" (p.9) to see FDI workforce characteristics As for the figure, the FDI sector exhibits a distinct demographic profile compared to private and public sectors It employs a younger workforce, with a concentration around the age of 21 Notably, the sector boasts a significantly higher proportion of female employees (nearly two-thirds) primarily concentrated in industries like garments and textiles Interestingly, the study reveals a lower share of FDI workers holding tertiary education compared to other sectors However, there's a higher concentration of skilled workers (including machine operators) within the FDI sector, particularly among those over 35

Figure 2.2: Share of working people by sector, 2018

From figure, Nguyen (2021) “Employment mobility of FDI workers in Vietnam: New evidence from recent surveys" (p.16), FDI firms demonstrate a higher level of formalization compared to the private sector, with a lower portion of workers having verbal or no contracts and a significantly higher proportion (95%) having social insurance However, a unique aspect of the FDI sector is the relatively large share of workers receiving daily wages (31%) or piece-rate payments (22%) Additionally, the FDI sector exhibits a trend of longer working hours compared to other sectors, with a significant portion of the workforce exceeding 49 hours weekly and some clocking in over

60 hours Overtime work is also more prevalent within the FDI sector

Figure 2.3: The proportion of worker have social insurance (%)

Deprez (2018) proposed balancing opportunities and challenges for Vietnam’s economy Specifically, Vietnam's commitment to open trade policies has demonstrably linked to its impressive economic growth and transition towards a higher value-added industrial structure This experience offers valuable lessons for other developing economies However, potential challenges loom Favorable conditions like a surplus of rural labor and low wages might diminish over time (Lewis, W A 1954) Rising real wages and a decline in rural labor could erode the competitiveness of Vietnam's export-oriented manufacturing sector Additionally, advancements in automation and robotics pose a threat, as multinational corporations may prioritize locations with readily available advanced technology (World Bank 2020) These trends could lead to a slowdown in FDI inflows and exports, jeopardizing Vietnam's economic momentum

Vietnam's ongoing efforts to pursue an open trade strategy are encouraging The country continues to leverage trade agreements to drive domestic reforms and create a more business-friendly environment Expanding liberalization beyond manufacturing to service sectors is crucial, as these sectors play a vital role in driving productivity growth (Asada, 2020) Upgrading the industrial structure requires a focus on strengthening absorptive capacity The government has outlined plans for structural reforms aimed at improving competitiveness and productivity, including infrastructure development, business-friendly regulatory reform, and a realignment of resources Furthermore, human capital development and labor skills improvement are crucial for ensuring positive technology diffusion from FDI inflows (Dinh et al 2019) By narrowing the technology gap between domestic and foreign firms, Vietnam can enhance the performance and production systems of its domestic companies

In conclusion, Vietnam's continued success hinges on its ability to effectively navigate the opportunities and challenges associated with FDI and trade By strategically implementing the policy recommendations outlined above, Vietnam can ensure the long-term sustainability of its economic growth and achieve its ambitious goal of becoming a high-income country by 2045 This journey will require careful balancing – maximizing the benefits of global integration while mitigating potential pitfalls Vietnam's experience will undoubtedly be closely watched by other developing countries seeking to replicate its remarkable development trajectory.

Research methodology

Research procedure

In order to effectively make a report with reliable and effective information, a research procedure containing seven steps has been built and strictly followed

1 Defining issues and research objectives

- Issue: The impacts of FDI on labor

- Objective: recommendations for future growth of FDI, labor force and economy

Decide that the research design is descriptive research and plan the next steps and tools for research

3 Planning samples Decide to choose FDI inflows and labor force above 15 years old from the period 2006 to 2023 to analyze the relationship and make conclusions

4 Gathering data Collect the necessary secondary data, which is extracted from both national authorities and researches of different authors The method for data collection is exploratory case study

Deal with the collected information to set a beneficial background for statistics, analysis and give specific data in the form of numbers and proportion

From the research results, propose specific solutions for the comprehensive growth of the economy

7 Concluding After the report, encapsulate all the results, shortcomings and solutions

Data collection

In a research paper, usually, both primary data sources and secondary data sources are used However, in this report, secondary data is mainly used without the presence of primary data The reason for this decision is explained by the characteristics of each source and the focus of the study

Firstly, secondary sources have their own advantages and disadvantages The advantage that we can easily see is that it is cost-saving and time-consuming and highly regular With the popularity of the internet, searching information has become easier than ever However, secondary data also has their own undeniable disadvantages, which are their irrelevance to the research objectives, low reliability and low updated status

Primary data, on the other hand, can ensure the close connection to the research objectives and be updated until the time of the research As a result, the process of collecting updated, selected data takes a much longer than searching for information from available media Primary data is also more suitable for studies regarding consumers’ behavior, which is not our topic for the research

As analyzed as above, since the disadvantages of secondary data are nonsignificant and do not negatively impact on the research objectives and effectiveness and the advantages of primary data do not efficiently support it, I decide to choose secondary sources to use in this report To be more specifically explained, secondary data is taken into careful consideration after the content and scope of this report is defined and oriented meticulously First, the research is carried out in a general context of Vietnam and not restricted to only a group of people or source of money Since it is of broad scope and requires an overview information, it is inappropriate to use primary data or collect information from only a small part as samples to present the whole population For example, collecting data regarding number of laborers in some firms in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City is not usable in the case of this research Therefore, concentrated as it seems, primary data’s support in the study is insignificant Also, as the secondary data is used in this report, it can give a broad view of the flow of FDI and labor, which is suitable for my topic Also, as the data are mostly extracted from reliable sources such as GSO, ILO, it can ensure the credibility and eliminate the negativity usually seen in available sources The data is updated until the forth quarter of 2023, which is so near the current time Therefore, with the use of secondary data, this research can still fulfill its objectives and give the effective and trust-worthy information and analysis

3.1.2.2 Data collection method for quantitative research

Since the data chosen to analyze is secondary data, the method for collecting data for such quantitative research is collecting based on documents Not similar to primary sources with various methods such as observation, interviewing and questionnaire, the information collection from secondary sources contains only one method and the effectiveness of collecting procedure is based largely on the trustworthiness of the documents instead of the characteristics of each method In this report, the documents we have chosen to filter the necessary information from both published and unpublished sources, either of which is of high reliability

For this research, statistical data was gathered from various sources Quarterly labor productivity (2011-2023) was sourced from the ILO, while exchange rates were obtained from Bloomberg LP and GDP growth rates from the World Bank Official government publications also played a crucial role Annual labor reports from the GSO (2010-2023) provided employment data for individuals over 15 years of age Additionally, the GSO supplied data on CPI and nominal wages for calculating real wages Furthermore, journals and newspapers were consulted to supplement the analysis with diverse perspectives and conclusions.

In terms of unpublished sources, since the published sources are not enough to meet the research’s requirements and objectives, other unpublished materials are also actively exploited Regarding the figures and data back to 2006 to 2010, due to their long backdating status, it is nearly impossible to find them out on the Internet Therefore, in order to implement the report effectively and informative, the hard copies in GSO office are also consulted Moreover, as the quarter GDP in Vietnam is not yet popularly calculated, the consultation of research carried out by individuals in universities is also necessary Consequently, the study named “Estimates of Quarterly Real GDP for Vietnam” by Vu Tuan Khai is used as a suggested method for our country’s quarter GDP calculation.

Sample’s general explaination

The study has executed to collect data from mentioned documents on a quarter basis from the 4th quarter of 2006 until the 4th quarter of 2023 For each dependent variable (FDI inflow, labor real wage, labor productivity and employment), there are 69 observations

Theoretically, some of the variables in this report are collected and some are calculated based on their standard formula Specifically:

Data type Variables Formula for calculating (if any) Formula sources

The data that have collected includes FDI Inflow to Vietnam and some factors in relation to labor and economy of Vietnam To study the mutual impact of FDI and labor on each other, two separate process is conducted for each impact and the variables are carefully chosen as follow so as the model will satisfy two conditions:

- The R 2 (The R 2 is typically read as the “percent of variance explained” It is a measure of the overall fit of the model) get the as high as possible result

- All hypothesis tests are passed

Impact of FDI on labor

A Multivariate Regression Analysis is conducted, with the variables are as follow:

- Dependent variable: ln_Emp, Lab_prod, ln_Real_wage

- Independent variables: ln_FDI_Inflow

The information about the variables is included in the following table:

Table 3.3: Value and label of the variables

Varriable name Value label Variable label

Emp Thousand Number of people employed ln_Emp Thousand Natural logarithm of the number of people employed

Lab_prod USD On average, how much a worker contributes to GDP

Real_wage USD Real wage ln_Real_wage USD Natural logarithm of Real wage ln_FDI_inf USD FDI Inflow

3.1.3.2 Variables description in more detail

Using the command in software to describe the data, expresses the number of observation (Obs), the mean value (mean), standard deviation (std dev), the maximum value (max) and minimum value (min) of variables

Figure 3.1: Summary of the variables

Statistical analysis method

Multivariate Regression with OLS model

Multivariate regression is a method used to measure the degree at which more than one independent variable (predictors) and more than one dependent variable (responses), are linearly related The method is broadly used to predict the behavior of the response variables associated to changes in the predictor variables, once a desired degree of relation has been established

In this report, multivariate regression is used to analyze impact of FDI on labor To be more specific, it is exploited to analyze how FDI can affect, respectively, employment, labor productivity and real wages in Vietnam In another word, while FDI inflow is the only independent variables, there exist three dependent ones As a result, the value for a referenced R-squared can be low but still accepted An exact “good” number for R-squared is not directly announced However, based on the analysis results, a general conclusion can still be given without serious consideration of this value

Variable Obs Mean Std Dev Min Max

236 5.56e+07 213.62 106.47 17.83438 ln_Real_wage ln_FDI_Inf

Assumption in OLS model with time series data

To test whether the model leaves out one or more relevant variables, the “ovtest” command is used, with the hypotheses as follow:

If p-value of the test is lower than significance level, reject H0 and accepts H1

3.2.2.2 Model’s residual is normally distributed

Another assumption in OLS model is that the error terms are normally distributed In another word, the distribution curve of the residual takes the form below:

When the residuals are not normally distributed, then the hypothesis that they are a random dataset, takes the value NO

This means that in that case the regression model does not explain all trends in the dataset, which means that there are unknown trends remaining in the dataset Thus, the model is not fully explaining the behavior of the system, making the model unreliable

The third assumption in OLS model is that there is no serial correlation, or autocorrelation According to Wikipedia, autocorrelation is the correlation of a signal with a delayed copy of itself as a function of delay Informally, it is the similarity between observations as a function of the time lag between them The analysis of autocorrelation is a mathematical tool for finding repeating patterns, such as the presence of a periodic signal obscured by noise or identifying the missing fundamental frequency in a signal implied by its harmonic frequencies It is often used in signal processing for analyzing functions or series of values, such as time domain signals

First-order autocorrelation is a prevalent form of autocorrelation, occurring when an observed error is influenced by the error that precedes it in the previous time period This first-order nature implies that only a single time period divides the correlated error term observations.

Autocorrelation in regression models reflects the correlation between the errors in sequential time periods It is quantified by the autocorrelation coefficient 𝜌 A positive 𝜌 indicates positive serial correlation, while a negative 𝜌 indicates negative serial correlation The absence of autocorrelation occurs when 𝜌 equals zero.

In time series data, autocorrelation is a very serious problem since its presence means that useful information is missing from the model Such information might explain the movement in the dependent variable more accurately The presence of autocorrelation indicates that a model is making a similar mistake over and over as it attempts to explain movement in the dependent variable Y

Multicollinearity is a state of very high intercorrelations or inter-associations among the independent variables Thus, it is a type of disturbance in the data, and its presence in the data make the results unreliable

Multicollinearity may occur when there is:

- Inaccurate use of dummy variables

- The inclusion of a variable which is computed from other variables in the data set

- The repetition of the same kind of variable Multicollinearity may result in:

- The partial regression coefficient due to multicollinearity may not be estimated precisely The standard errors are likely to be high

- Multicollinearity results in a change in the signs as well as in the magnitudes of the partial regression coefficients from one sample to another sample

Multicollinearity makes it tedious to assess the relative importance of the independent variables in explaining the variation caused by the dependent variable

Another problem that our model can suffer from when being examined is heteroskedasticity Heteroskedasticity occurs when the assumption of variance of each error term Ui being unchanged when i moves from 1, 2 to n is violated Or in other words:

Heteroskedasticity may occur because of some reasons as below:

- Essence of economic phenomena: If economic phenomena is examined on subjects having difference in scale or they are examined under periods of time that are not similar in fluctuation level

- Model’s function is wrongly formatted, maybe because appropriate variables are missing or function analysis is false

- Data cannot fully and correctly reflect the essence of economic phenomena For example, external observations appear Bringing in or eliminate these observations does great impact on regression analysis

- Error tends to decrease as data collecting, conserving and processing techniques are improved

- Behaviors in the past are learnt

Heteroskedasticity compromises the efficiency of least squared estimators, rendering them biased and thus diminishing the model's overall efficacy Additionally, it distorts variance estimators, further limiting the model's reliability As a result, heteroskedasticity poses significant challenges to statistical inference and modeling accuracy.

Hypothesis development of the impacts of FDI on labor

To analyze the effects of FDI on labor, I focus on how the FDI affects respectively the number of employed people, real wage and labor productivity

Firstly, regarding how FDI inflow can change the number of employed people, I will make a hypothesis on the actual situation in Vietnam after more than 30 years of attracting FDI According to the results of the 2023 Labor Force Survey of the GSO, when in 1995 the whole country had about 330 thousand employees working in FDI enterprises, the number has increased nearly four million workers at the end of 2023 While not creating many jobs compared to the domestic sector, the growth rate of FDI workers is quite high, reaching an average of 8.1% / year for the period of

From 2005 to 2023, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) enterprises in Vietnam have significantly contributed to job creation, with a remarkable growth rate nearly four times higher than the overall labor market expansion Beyond direct employment opportunities, these FDI enterprises also indirectly generate approximately 5-6 million additional indirect jobs through their business activities This suggests a robust correlation between FDI and job creation in the Vietnamese economy.

H1: “FDI inflow affects positively number of employed people”

FDI inflows in Vietnam primarily target capital-intensive industries that employ highly skilled workers with access to advanced technology, modern management practices, and robust work ethics This specialized workforce benefits from superior knowledge and skills, contributing to a substantial 2x increase in average real income compared to their counterparts in similar domestic industries These observations support the hypothesis that FDI inflows positively impact real wages for skilled workers in Vietnam.

H2: “FDI inflow affects positively real wage”

Last but not least, I would like to mention the impacts of FDI inflow on labor productivity In the past, FDI has promoted overall growth and created momentum for Vietnam's economy Despite its being very low compared to other countries in the region, labor productivity in the FDI sector still makes a large gap from the remaining economic sectors Therefore, we can jump to the hypothesis that FDI sector has the largest positive contribution to our nation’s labor productivity

H3: “FDI inflow affects positively labor productivity”

4 CHAPTER 4: DATA ANALYSIS AND RESEARCH FINDINGS

Linear regression using OLS model

Expected effects on dependent variable

Table 4.1: Expected effect of FDI_Inf on the Dependent variables

Expected effect Interpretation ln_Emp + The more FDI flows into Vietnam, the more people are employed

Lab_prod ln_FDI_Inf

+ The more FDI flows into Vietnam, the more efficient the labor is ln_Real_wage +

The more FDI flows into Vietnam, the higher the real wage of workers

Running regression model

Figure 4.1: Linear regression with OLS model (Impact of FDI on labor)

Regression function

Independent variable Value T-statistic P-value ln_Emp ln_FDI (à12) 1355155 6.40 0.000

mvreg ln_Emp Lab_prod ln_Real_wage = c.ln_FDI_Inf, corr

Equation Obs Parms RMSE "R-sq" F P ln_Emp 69 2 0517925 0.4607 41.00963 0.0000

Lab_prod 69 2 24.6342 0.1306 7.208094 0.0099 ln_Real_wage 69 2 1214976 0.2253 13.95614 0.0005

Coef Std Err t P>|t| [95% Conf Interval] ln_Emp ln_FDI_Inf

Lab_prod ln_FDI_Inf

47.25992 5.820994 ln_Real_wage ln_FDI_Inf

Lab_prod ln_FDI (à22) 27.02268 2.68 0.010 ln_Real_wage ln_FDI (à32) 1854513 3.74 0.000

The regression functions can be deducted from the table:

Result analysis

Table 4.3: Results interpretation of model (1)

R2 0.4607 46.07% of the variation in ln_Emp is explained by ln_FDI_Inf à11 14.79588

If all ln_FDI_Inf are equal to 0, then ln_Emp is equal to 2,665,440.78592 people à12 1355155

If FDI Inflow increases by 1%, then Employment will increase by 0.1355155%

13.06% of the variation in Lab_prod is explained by ln_FDI_Inf The percent was quite low Therefore, ln_FDI_Inf does not explain the change in Labor productivity much à21 -435.7533

If all ln_FDI_Inf is equal to 0, then Labor productivity is equal to -435.7533 USD à22 27.02268

If FDI Inflow increases by 1%, Labor Productivity increases by 0.2702268 USD

22.53% of the variation in ln_Real_wage is explained by ln_FDI_Inf à31 3761618

If all ln_FDI_Inf is equal to 0, then ln_Real_wage is equal to 0.3761618 USD, or in other words, Real wage is approximately 1.46 USD à32 1854513

If FDI Inflow increases by 1%, then Real wage will increase by 0.1854513%

Hypothesis testing

Model’s Suitability Testing

This test is to examine if the parameters of the independent variable à𝑖 at the same time can be zero The result of the test is described as:

P-value = 0.0000 < 0.05 As a result, H0 hypothesis is rejected, confirming the suitability of the model.

Multicollinearity

Figure 4.2: Multicollinearity testing (Impact of FDI on Employment)

Figure 4.3: Multicollinearity testing (Impact of FDI on Labor productivity)

Variable VIF 1/VIF ln_FDI_Inf 1.00 1.000000

Figure 4.4: Multicollinearity testing (Impact of FDI on Real wage)

As the VIF value in 3 models are lower than 10, thus, multicollinearity does not occur in the model.

Heteroskedasticity

Figure 4.5: Heteroskedasticity testing (Impact of FDI on Employment)

Variable VIF 1/VIF ln_FDI_Inf 1.00 1.000000

White's test for Ho: homoskedasticity against Ha: unrestricted heteroskedasticity chi2(2) = 0.47 Prob > chi2 = 0.7887

Skewness 6.35 1 0.0118 Kurtosis 2.18 1 0.1397 Total 9.00 4 0.0610 Cameron & Trivedi's decomposition of IM-test

Figure 4.6: Heteroskedasticity testing (Impact of FDI on Labor productivity)

White's test for Ho: homoskedasticity against Ha: unrestricted heteroskedasticity chi2(2) = 0.03 Prob > chi2 = 0.9865 Cameron & Trivedi's decomposition of IM-test

Figure 4.7: Heteroskedasticity testing (Impact of FDI on Real wage)

White's test for Ho: homoskedasticity against Ha: unrestricted heteroskedasticity chi2(2) = 0.52 Prob > chi2 = 0.7713

Cameron & Trivedi's decomposition of IM-test

As the p-value of the test in 3 models are lower than 0.05, thus, heteroskedasticity does not occur in the model at 5% significance level

General conclusion

The key findings reveal a positive and statistically significant relationship between FDI and three crucial labor market factors: employment, labor productivity, and real wages

- 1% increase in FDI inflow leads to a 0.1355155% increase in employment

- 1% increase in FDI inflow is associated with a rise in labor productivity of 0.2702268 USD

- 1% increase in FDI inflow results in a 0.1854513% increase in real wages.

A recommendation for the simultaneous growth of labor and FDI

Recommendation for FDI inflows development to enhance labor productivity 44

While acknowledging the positive influence of FDI, the research identifies limitations that hinder its full potential To optimize this relationship, a two-pronged approach is proposed, focusing on maximizing the strengths and mitigating the weaknesses of FDI

FDI significantly enhances labor productivity by facilitating knowledge transfer through its enterprises Vietnamese workers acquire advanced skills in technology, management, and foreign languages This is evident in the emergence of skilled technicians and managers within FDI firms Moreover, FDI firms offer higher average monthly salaries than the state (VND 8.2 million) and non-state sectors (VND 6.4 million) Male workers in FDI earn an average of VND 9.2 million, while female workers earn VND 7.6 million These findings emphasize the need to promote FDI as a catalyst for upskilling and improving the well-being of the Vietnamese workforce.

However, the paper also identifies limitations within the current FDI landscape A significant portion of the FDI workforce lacks higher education Data suggests that nearly 80% of workers in FDI firms had no degrees by the end of 2017, with this number remaining almost unchanged since

2011 Foreign investors often prioritize employing low-skilled workers to capitalize on Vietnam's cost-competitive labor market, with an average monthly salary of VND 6.4 million in the non-state sector While this strategy may be initially beneficial, it can disincentivize both workers and firms from investing in further skill development This stagnation in skill development hinders Vietnam's potential for long-term economic growth through increased labor productivity

To address these limitations, the paper proposes a dual approach Firstly, the government should incentivize FDI firms to implement regular training programs for their employees This could be achieved through mechanisms that reward firms demonstrably upskilling their workforce Secondly, stricter regulations regarding minimum qualifications for employment within FDI firms could be implemented Regular assessments of employee skill development could be used to monitor progress By ensuring that FDI fosters a highly skilled workforce, Vietnam can maximize the long-term benefits of FDI on labor productivity

In conclusion, this paper underscores the importance of a nuanced approach toward FDI in Vietnam While FDI offers undeniable advantages in terms of skill transfer and employee compensation, its impact on labor productivity risks diminishing without a focus on fostering a highly skilled workforce By implementing the proposed recommendations, Vietnam can leverage FDI to achieve a "dual effect": attracting continued FDI inflows while simultaneously enhancing the productivity of its labor force.

Recommendation for FDI inflows development to enhance employment

While previous sections highlighted the strong positive impact of FDI on labor productivity, its influence on employment appears less pronounced This paper acknowledges a positive correlation between FDI and employment generation; however, it argues that the nature of these jobs and high turnover rates limit the overall impact Based on this analysis, the paper proposes recommendations to improve the quality and sustainability of FDI-generated employment

The arrival of FDI enterprises creates new job opportunities in Vietnam However, due to skill mismatches, these positions are often limited to blue-collar or manual labor with low wages Consequently, FDI may not significantly increase the overall employment rate due to high employee turnover within these firms This highlights the need for a nuanced policy approach that addresses both attracting FDI and ensuring its positive impact on Vietnamese workers

To enhance the positive impact of FDI on employment, the paper proposes that the government enact policies encouraging FDI firms to improve employee welfare: This includes ensuring competitive salaries, adherence to proper working hours, and a focus on worker health, particularly for those working in hazardous environments Improved working conditions can reduce employee turnover and create a more stable workforce within FDI firms

By implementing these recommendations, Vietnam can leverage FDI to create a more sustainable and positive impact on its labor market This approach would not only attract continued FDI inflows but also ensure that these investments generate high-quality employment opportunities for Vietnamese workers.

Recommendation for FDI inflows development to enhance real wages

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) enterprises in Vietnam face a significant challenge: balancing profitability with fair labor costs This is particularly true for the numerous small and medium- sized FDI firms, which often prioritize profit maximization over employee well-being This trend is evidenced by their reluctance to raise annual minimum wages at a rate comparable to other enterprises

To ensure that real wages reflect a decent standard of living for workers, the government must enact a comprehensive set of policies These policies should combine incentives to encourage responsible practices with firm enforcement mechanisms to ensure compliance The government has a primary responsibility in this area, safeguarding both worker interests and adherence to labor laws

Beyond governmental involvement, other entities play a significant role in supporting efforts to ensure fair labor practices within FDI enterprises The Department of Labor, War Invalids and Social Affairs (DOLISA) holds the responsibility of implementing and enforcing labor regulations within these firms Additionally, trade unions serve as a vital voice for workers, advocating for their rights and working to ensure fair treatment within FDI enterprises.

By working collaboratively, the government, DOLISA, and trade unions can create a more balanced environment for FDI in Vietnam This approach will ensure that FDI contributes not only to economic growth but also to the well-being of Vietnamese workers.

Managerial implications for labor development

Labor productivity recommendations for FDI expansion

This report highlights the importance of labor productivity in attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to Vietnam Drawing on insights from Mr Kuroda Kazuteru of the Japan Productivity Center, the report identifies five key factors that influence Vietnamese worker productivity:

1 Employee Satisfaction: As noted by Mr Kuroda, a sense of accomplishment and satisfaction motivates employees to stay committed to their work This highlights the importance of fostering a positive work environment where employees feel valued and appreciated

2 Recognition and Competence: Feeling recognized for one's skills and qualifications is crucial for employee morale and engagement Companies should create a culture that acknowledges individual contributions and fosters positive relationships within teams

3 Trust in the Company: Employees who believe in their company's mission, vision, and values are more likely to be productive and engaged Clear communication of the company's goals and a strong sense of purpose can cultivate employee trust and loyalty

4 Competitive Compensation and Benefits: While not the sole motivator, competitive wages and benefits demonstrably increase employee motivation and retention Companies that offer attractive compensation packages are more likely to attract and retain top talent

5 Effective Leadership and Supervision: Strong leadership is essential for fostering a productive work environment Leaders who can effectively organize, motivate, and connect with their employees play a critical role in boosting overall productivity

By addressing five key factors, companies can empower employees and boost satisfaction Implementing flexible work arrangements and tailored workspaces provides greater autonomy Additionally, aligning systems with Maslow's hierarchy of needs, prioritizing basic needs like stability and growth, fosters a fulfilling work environment.

Building a system that addresses employee needs goes beyond just compensation Social connection is a significant factor in boosting employee morale As Gretchen Rubin highlights in her book "The Four Tendencies," even introverts benefit from interaction with colleagues Firms can foster this by:

- Communication-Friendly Workspaces: Office layout and workstation design can encourage interaction Open floor plans and collaborative work areas can facilitate communication and build relationships

- Team-Building Activities: Organize events beyond the workday, such as volunteer programs or field trips, to promote socialization and team spirit

Recognizing employee achievements and contributions is crucial, as emphasized by Maslow's hierarchy of needs and Mr Kuroda Effective practices include:

- Public Recognition: Implement "shout-out" programs or create a company-wide "Reward

& Recognition" system to acknowledge individual and team accomplishments

- Peer Recognition: Encourage a culture of peer-to-peer recognition where employees can acknowledge each other's contributions

Fair compensation remains a key motivator Companies are advised to develop a well-structured salary system that considers various factors:

- Compensation Philosophy: Clearly define the company's approach to employee compensation

- Market Data: Gather salary data from competitors and industry benchmarks to ensure competitiveness

- Job Benchmarking: Identify key positions within the company and compare their compensation to similar roles in the market

- Financial Capacity: Ensure compensation packages are sustainable for the company's financial health

The government and labor unions play a critical role in supporting labor productivity growth Studies show a positive correlation between wages, income, and productivity Labor unions, as representatives of workers, can contribute by:

- Advocacy: Negotiating fair wages and benefits on behalf of employees

- Employee Wellbeing: Organizing activities and programs that address workers' material and emotional needs, fostering a positive work environment

As Ms Do Thi Phuong Nga, president of the Ung Hoa province Labor Union, states, "If employees feel supported and have a positive work environment, they will be more enthusiastic and effective, leading to higher labor productivity."

By implementing these recommendations, Vietnamese firms and the government can create a more productive and engaged workforce, ultimately attracting greater FDI and achieving sustainable economic growth.

Employment recommendations for FDI expansion

Vietnam currently enjoys a demographic sweet spot with a large proportion of its workforce under

34 years old This advantage, expected to last until 2034, presents a significant window of opportunity for economic growth

The young generation possesses a strong aptitude for acquiring new skills, particularly in science and technology This adaptability positions them well for the demands of the evolving job market Moreover, a larger working-age population has the potential to significantly boost overall productivity and generate wealth for the nation

While the "golden population" offers undeniable advantages, there are challenges to overcome The current vocational training rate of 14.9% indicates a significant skills gap This restricts access to higher-skilled positions and risks hindering future productivity growth

To maximize employment opportunities and capitalize on this demographic advantage, the following recommendations are proposed:

- Population Management: Implement policies that promote a stable fertility rate and a gradual aging process to extend the current demographic advantage This ensures a continued supply of young talent in the coming years

Prioritizing industries with high value-added, like technology and innovation, ensures the creation of jobs with increased productivity, contributing to economic diversification This strategic approach harnesses the workforce's potential, allowing them to contribute more effectively to the overall economic growth and competitiveness.

To address the workforce skills gap, it is crucial to enhance vocational training programs These programs should be expanded and improved, aligning with current market demands By providing the workforce with the necessary skills, they will be better equipped for higher-paying jobs, leading to a more skilled and competitive economy.

- Skilled Workforce Development: Establish a long-term goal of achieving a labor structure with a significantly higher percentage (over 80%) of vocationally trained workers This skilled workforce will be essential for a thriving future economy

By addressing these challenges and implementing these recommendations, Vietnam can leverage its "golden population" to achieve significant employment growth and attract increased FDI This skilled and adaptable workforce will be a key driver of economic prosperity in the years to come.

Limitation of the study

We acknowledge the inherent limitations of any research endeavor, and this study is no exception Here, we identify some areas for further exploration

The report primarily focuses on internal factors influencing labor trends However, it is crucial to acknowledge the significant impact of external factors, such as economic crises and global pandemics The global economic crisis of 2008 serves as a prime example of how external events can negatively impact business activity and, consequently, labor markets Similarly, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic (2021-2022) has caused significant disruptions to global supply chains, travel restrictions, and business closures, leading to widespread unemployment and labor market volatility Future research should incorporate a more holistic analysis by considering the interplay between internal and external factors, including both economic fluctuations and public health emergencies, to gain a more comprehensive understanding of labor market dynamics

This report focuses on analyzing current trends rather than forecasting future developments The ability to predict future labor and FDI trends would allow policymakers to develop more effective and proactive solutions While this study does not employ a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model for forecasting due to its scope, it acknowledges the importance of such methods for future research Combining economic factor analysis with forecasting techniques can provide a more comprehensive and reliable foundation for future studies on this topic

To enhance the analysis of FDI's impact on the labor market, it's crucial to include a broader range of labor market variables While the study examines employment, labor productivity, and real wages, a more comprehensive perspective can be gained by incorporating factors like workforce skill levels, job security, and demographic impacts This broader approach will provide a deeper understanding of the interplay between FDI and the labor market.

By incorporating these limitations into future research, a more holistic understanding of labor market dynamics in Vietnam can be achieved This will ultimately lead to the development of more effective policies for promoting sustainable employment growth and attracting FDI

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Tiêu đề	The Impacts of FDI Inflows on Labor Market
Tác giả	Nguyen Ngoc Mai, Dao Khanh Ngan, Vu Hong Hanh, Le Huyen Trang
Người hướng dẫn	Nghiem Xuan Hoa, PhD
Trường học	Vietnam National University, Hanoi
Chuyên ngành	Accounting, Analyzing and Auditing
Thể loại	Student Research Report
Năm xuất bản	2024
Thành phố	Hanoi

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