group essay topic 2 practice a stock analysis and valuation for a company listed on the hose stock exchange

LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1: Assumptions of the Balance sheet Figure 2.2: Assumptions of the Profit and Loss Statement Figure 2.3: Assumptions of the Cash Flow Figure 2.4: Forecast Balanc

SCHOOL OF FINANCE UEH UNIVERSITY

Nguyen Kim Chi 31211022750 Nguyen Ngoc Thanh Huyen 31211023070

Nguyen Hoang Sang 31211022509

TP Ho Chi Minh - 2023

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Iik5N9) 00) (00.415 nen 2 OVERVIEW mnmnadtdidiaidd4 3 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION OF HOA PHAT GROUP JOINT STOCK COMPANY .4 IIC si v00 i0/0y119ädaađaiaiẳẳáÝäaă 4

1.2 The Process of Formation and I2eveÌopIment ác 1 112111111111 14111111111111 1112k, 4 1.4 Legal status and charter capital oŸ the eompany c2 1211211111 11 111111101101 1 HH Hệ 6

CHAPTER 2: USING FINANCIAL DATA FROM FINANCIAL STATEMENTS TO

I09)3)/0.4MWNNHHic.Ỏĩ 6 2.1 Forecast financial statement ¬ 6

P3) rciiiiađiiaiaẳadđdadaadadđdaẢậÁẢÝẢÝ 11 2.2.2 Calculation L1 201211211 121121111121 11011111211 11 111911111111 111111 tk HH HH 11

2.3 Free cash flow to the đrm (FCFF) ác 1111111212111 11111111110 01 111110111 H1 1x HH thu 12

PIN 3000005 vaiiiaaiiiiiiiiiiaidảaảiÁÝỶ 12 PA U 1000 0((ÈELraaaadiiidiăiăảaaaiỶÝỶ 12

P P.3 oaaaadiiẳäặạ4 13 PÀ VU 1ì) 000 0n -.- 13

2.5 Dividend growth 2n Ầ 55 14

PWN 3i oaẽễšaiẳáẳâdâi 14 2.5.2 Calculafion L1 020121111 1121121111121 1101111111111 1110111111111 1H HH TH HH HH HH 14 CHAPTER 3: ESTIMATING MARKET CAPITALIZATION RATE BY USING CAPM 15 E8 na 15

3.2 Two-vear daily returns of the stoek and VNINDEX and estimated Beta value 15

E60 000i) 0n ồo 18 CHAPTER 4: EVALUATING STOCK INTRINSIC VALUE BY P/E AND DDM 19

4.1 Evaluating stock intrinsic value by P/E ccccccecceeenseteetectetsetectsneetseetetestectenenteen 19 4.2 Evaluatng stoek Imntrinsic value by IDDDM (ác c1 1111211111 1111111011011 11 11k 20

CHAPTER 5: COMPARE THE PRICE ESTIMATED AND THE MARKET PRICE IN ORDER TO MAKE A DECISION ON THE STOCEK 0n 2n re 23

5.1 Combinatiơn of P/E and DDM - 1 22112221123 12112115111211111211181111 1211121211111 H1 Hà 23

5.2 Compare the price estimated and the marÌk€t pFIC€ - ¿S1 9 111 11 1111211 111111 2 24 000190010) d 25

REFERENCES x:ttaddđiidiiiiiiiaiiiiiâầẳaảảả4 26

LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1: Assumptions of the Balance sheet Figure 2.2: Assumptions of the Profit and Loss Statement Figure 2.3: Assumptions of the Cash Flow

Figure 2.4: Forecast Balance sheet Figure 2.5: Forecast Profit and Loss Statement Figure 2.6: Forecast Cash flow

Figure 2.7: Calculate ROE Figure 2.8: Calculate d Figure 2.9: Calculate b Figure 2.10: Calculate g Figure 2.11: Future dividend Figure 2.12: Calculate EBIT Figure 2.13: Calculate tc Figure 2.14: Calculate NWC Figure 2.15: Calculate ANWC Figure 2.16: Calculate forecast free cash flows to the firm (FCFF) Figure 2.17: Calculate forecast prices to earnings ratio (P/E ratio) Figure 2.18: Calculate forecast dividend growth rate

Figure 3.1: Recent T-bill rate Figure 3.2: Stock of Hoa Phat (HPG - HOSE) from 01/10/2020 to 31/10/2022 Figure 3.3: Daily returns of the HPG

Figure 3.4: Daily returns of the VNINDEX Figure 3.5: Beta calculation

Figure 3.6: Yearly average expected retum Figure 3.7: The required rate of return of stock HPG Figure 4.1: The average industry P/E

Figure 4.2: HPG valuation Figure 4.3: ROE calculation Figure 4.4: Calculate b Figure 4.5: Calculate HPG's sustainable growth rate Figure 4.6: Calculate dividend payout ratio Figure 4.7: Sustainable growth rate Figure 5.1: HPG valuation by a combination of P/E and DDM Figure 5.2: Compare the price estimated and the market price

OVERVIEW Hoa Phat is the leading industrial manufacturing group in Vietnam Onginating as a construction machine and equipment trading company in August 1992, Hoa Phat has gradually expanded its business to trading and production of Furniture, Steel Pipe, Steel, Refrigeration, Real Estate and Agriculture Since November 15, 2007, Hoa Phat has been officially listed on the Stock Exchange under the stock ticker symbol ‘HPG’

Currently, the Group operates in 05 sectors: Iron and steel (construction steel, hot rolled coil) - Steel products (including steel pipes, galvanized steel, drawn steel wire, prestressed steel) - Agriculture - Real estate — Home appliances Steel production is the core, accounting for 90% revenue and profit of the Group With the capacity of 8.5 million tons of crude steel per year, Hoa Phat is the largest steel producer in Southeast Asia

Hoa Phat Group holds the No | market share in Vietnam for construction steel, steel pipes; Top 5 of steel sheet Currently, Hoa Phat is ranked as the Top 5 largest private enterprises in Vietnam, Top 50 most effective listed enterprises, Top 30 largest contributions to the State Budget, Top 3 enterprises of the largest charter capital in the stock market, Top 10 stocks with largest market capitalization in Vietnam stock market With the business philosophy of "Harmony for joint development", Hoa Phat spends hundreds of VND billions every year to fulfill its corporate social responsibilities to the community

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION OF HOA PHAT GROUP JOINT STOCK COMPANY

Phone: +84 (24) 628-48666 - Fax: 84 (24) 628-83456 Email: hoaphatgroup@hoaphat.com.vn

Website: www.hoaphat.com.vn 1.2 The Process of Formation and Development

1992: Established Hoa Phat Equipment and Accessories Co., Ltd - The first company of Hoa Phat brand

1995: Established Hoa Phat Furniture Jomt Stock Company 1996: Established Hoa Phat Steel Pipe Company Limited October 2000: Established Hoa Phat Steel Jomt Stock Company Now, it is Hoa Phat Hung Yen Steel Company Limited

July 2001: Established Hoa Phat Refrigeration Co., Ltd September 2001: Established Hoa Phat Construction and Urban Development Joint Stock Company

January 2007: Restructured the Group structure including the parent company - Hoa Phat Group Joint Stock Company and its subsidiaries

August 2007: Established Hoa Phat Hai Duong Steel Joint Stock Company, deploying the iron and steel production Complex in Kinh Mon, Hai Duong November 15, 2007: Listed HPG stock on Vietnam's stock market June 2009: An Thong Mineral Investment Joint Stock Company became Hoa Phat Member Company

December 2009: Hoa Phat Iron and Steel Complex completed phase | investment January 2011: Restructured the Parent company with the separation of steel production and business

August 2012: Hoa Phat turned to 20 years of establishment and development, received the Third Class Labor Medal of the President

October 2013: Hoa Phat Iron and Steel Complex completed phase 2, increased the total steel capacity of Hoa Phat to 1.15 million tons per year

¢ March 9, 2015: Launched Hoa Phat Animal Feed Trading and Manufacturing Co., Ltd Now, it is Hoa Phat Hung Yen Animal Feed Co., Ltd., marking a new development stage in the history of the Group when investing in agriculture « February 2016: Established Hoa Phat Agricultural Development Joint Stock

Company, managing and controlling the activities of all companies in the agricultural group (including animal feed and livestock)

¢ February 2016: Completed investment Phase 3 of Hoa Phat Iron and Steel Complex, increased the capacity of Hoa Phat Construction Steel to 2 million tons per year

e« April 2016: Established Hoa Phat Steel Sheet Co., Ltd galvanized, cold galvanizing with capacity of 400,000 tons per year

¢ February 2017: Established Hoa Phat Dung Quat Steel Joint Stock Company, deploying Hoa Phat Dung Quat Iron and Steel Integrated Complex in Quang Ngai Province, scale of 4 million tons per year with a total investment of 52,000 billion VND, marking big development stage of Hoa Phat Group

« 12/2020: In December 2020, Hoa Phat Group restructured its operating model with the establishment of Corporations in charge of each field of operation of the Group Accordingly, 4 corporations under the group were established, including: Iron and Steel Corporation, Steel Products Corporation, Real Estate Corporation, and Agriculture Corporation

¢ 9/ 2021: In September 2021, the Group decided to establish Hoa Phat Electrical Appliances Corporation with the following fields of activity: Investment, production and trading of electrical appliances - household appliances

1.3 Field of activities and business lines

Hoa Phat Group Joint Stock Companyis a Vietnam-based industrial conglomerate It has three business lines: construction steel, interior appliances, and construction The Group mainly manufactures construction steel in forms of bars and rolls, coated and bare pipes, and other steelmaking materials

It is also involved in merchandise of steel sheets and specialized products for modules casting, shipbuilding, and steel alloy production In interior appliances, the Group engages in manufacturing of house and office furniture, as well as refrigeration and other utilities appliances In the construction, the Group operates leasing services of construction machinery and equipments It is also engaged in development of manufacturing and commercial real estates, as well as properties management The Group has minor mining activities and cement production

1.4 Legal status and charter capital of the company In which, the Resolution No 12/NQHP-2020 on the establishment of Hoa Phat Iron and Steel Joint Stock Company This is the legal entity that manages the entire field of the group’s steel production and business with its subsidiaries including: Hoa Phat Hai Duong Steel Joint Stock Company, Hoa Phat Dung Quat Steel Joint Stock Company, Hoa Phat Hung Yen Steel Company Limited, Hoa Phat Metal Manufacturing Company Limited and An Thong Mineral Investment Jomt Stock Company

The charter capital of Hoa Phat Iron and Steel Joint Stock Company is VND39 trillion The company will implement investment, production and trading of construction steel and supporting activities

In the field of color coated steel pipes and corrugated iron, the Resolution No 11/NQHP- 2020 clearly states that Hoa Phat Steel Pipe and Color-coated Steel Joint Stock Company has a charter capital of VND3.5 trillion The company will have activities of investment, production and trading of steel pipes, colored galvanized steel sheet and supporting activities Its subsidiaries include Hoa Phat Steel Pipe Company Limited and Hoa Phat Steel Sheet Company Limited

CHAPTER 2: USING FINANCIAL DATA FROM FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

TO FORECAST 2.1 Forecast financial statement We proceed to calculate the assumption of indicators in the Balance Sheet by these steps:

Step 1: Calculate the percent change of indicators from 2019 to 2022 as shown below:

G3 $ ƒy =(C3-B3)/B3

Bảng cñn đối kế toán Công ty Cổ phần HPG 2019

[TONG TATSAN %23317600935/0— I0L776030096/8M0đ0 1351143439883 Ti§236.422 358240, 1ú3345i95081320{ MT min 354i

Step 2: Take the average of these percent changes: K3 <> fx =AVERAGE(G3:)3)

TAI SAN 2019 2020 2021 3 [TONG TAI SAN 30,11% 29,22% 5,53

The average in 2023 is also called assumption These assumptions are stable in the period

2\TAISAN _ 3 [TONG TAI SAN 22,61%| 22/61⁄% 22,61% 22,61% cá | TÀI SÁN NGAN HAN 39,53% 39,53% 39,53% 39,53% 39,53% 30 TAI SAN DAI HAN 14,73%| _14,73% 14,73% 14,73% _14,73% 67 |NQ PHAI TRA 2083% 20,83% 20,83% 20,83% 20,83% ,ô8 Nợ ngắn hạn 3452% 3452% 34,52% 34,52% 34,52% No dai han 2,29% 2,29% 2,29% 2,29% 2,29%

2

3 [Doanh sé 28.84%] — 28,84% 28,84% 28,84% 28,84% 4_¡ Các khoản giảm trừ 16,970 16,97% 16,97% 16,97% 16,97% 5 Doanh số thuân 29,04% 29,04% 29,04% 29,04% 29,04% 6 Gia vén hàng bán 30,45% 30,45% 30,45% 30,45% 30,45% 7 Lai gop 30,77% 30,77% 30,77% 30,77% 30,77% 8 Thu nhập tài chính 100/22% 10022% 100/22% 10022% 100/22% 9 ,Chỉ phí tài chính 18,23% 78,23% 78,23% T8,23% 78,23% 10 Trong đó: Chỉ phí lãi vay 61,20% 61,20% 61,20% 61,20% 61,20% 11 ¡Lãi/(1ỗ) từ công ty liên doanh -58,50% -58,50% -58,50% -58,50% -58,50% 12 |Chi phi ban hang 43,51% 43,51% 43,51% 43,51% 43,51% 13 |Chi phi quan lý doanh nghiệp 29,57% 29,57% 29,57% 29,57% 29,57% 14 | Lãi/(lỗ) từ hoạt động kinh doanh 31,87% 31,87% 31,87% 31,87% 31,87% 15 Thu nhập khác 16,31% 16,31% 16,31% 16,31% 16,31% 16 Chỉ phí khác 11,67% 11,67% 11,67% 11,67% 11,67% 17 ¡Thu nhập khác, ròng -1605,81% -1605,81% -l605,81% -1605,81% -1605,81% 18 ¡Lãi/(1ỗ) từ công ty liên doanh (từ năm 2015) 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 19 |Lãi/(1ỗ) ròng trước thuế 31,81% 31,81% 31,81% 31,81% 31,81% 20 Thuê thu nhập doanh nghiệp - hiện thời 3,20% 3,20% 3,20% 3,20% 3,20% 21 Thuê thu nhập doanh nghiệp — hoãn lại -218,17% -2I8/I7% -218,17% -21817% -218,17% 22 \Chi phi thuế thu nhập doanh nghiệp 5,12% 5,12% 5,12% 5,12% 5,12% 23 Lãi/(1ỗ) thuần sau thuế 36,60% 36,60% 36,60% 36,60% 36,60% 24 | Lợi ích của cỗ đông thiểu số -30,05% -30,05% -30,05% -30,05% -30,05% 25 |Loi nhuận của Cô đông của Công ty mẹ 36,86% 36,86% 36,86% 36,86% 36,86% 26 | Lãi cơ bản trên cô phiêu 12,64% 12,64% 12,64% 12,64% 12,64% 27 ¡Lãi trên cô phiêu pha loãng 0,00% 0,00%, 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%

Figure 2.3: Assumptions of the Cash Flow

K3 ° fe =AVERAGE(G3:)3)

A 1

2

3 [Lưu chuyên tiễn thuân từ các hoạt động sản xuất kinh đoanh 31,92% 31,92% 31,92% 31,92% 31,92% 4 Lãi/lỗ trước những thay đổi vốn lưu động 20,02% 29,92% 29,92% 29,92% 29,92% 5 Lãi trước thuế 31,81% 31,81% 31,81% 31,81% 31,81% 6 Khẩu hao TSCĐ 34,59% 34,59% 34,59% 34,59% 34,59% 7 Phân bố lợi thế thương mại -49,05% -49,05% 49,05% 49,05% 49,05% 8 Chi phi du phong 78.31% 78.31% 78.31% 78,31% 78,31% 9 Lãi/(ỗ) chênh lệch tỷ giá chưa thực hiện r 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 10 Lai/(6) tir thanh ly tai san cố định P 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 11 Lai/(16) ti hoạt động đầu tư 118,41% 118,41% 118,41% 118,41% 118,41% 12 Chi phi lai vay 61,20% 61,20% 61,20% 61,20% 61,20% 13 Thu lãi và cô tức F 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 14 Các khoản điều chỉnh khác r 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 15 (Tăng)/giảm các khoản phải thu 181,19% 181,19% 181,19% 181,19% 181,19% 16 (Tăng)/giảm hàng tôn kho 38,32% 38,32% 38,32% 38,32% 38,32% 17 Tăng/(giảm) các khoản phải trả 5,56% 5,56% 5,56% 5,56% 5,56% 18 ( Tang)/giam chi phi tra trước 391,48% 391,48% 391,48% 391,48% 391,48% 19 (Tang)/giam chứng khoán kinh doanh F 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 20 Chỉ phí lãi vay đã trả 55,35% 55,35% 55,35% 55,35% 55,35% 21 Thuê thu nhập doanh nghiệp đã trả 6,35% 6,35% 6,35% 635% 635% 22 Tiên thu khác từ các hoạt động kinh doanh P 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 23 Tiên chỉ khác từ các hoạt động kinh doanh 30,94% 30,94% 30,94% 30,94% 30,94% 24 Lưu chuyên tiên tệ ròng từ hoạt động đầu tư 5,48% 5,48% 5,48% 5,48% 5,48% 25 Tiên mua tài sản cô định và các tài sản dài hạn khác -3,97% -3,97% -3,97% -3,97% -3,97% 26 Tiên thu được từ thanh lý tài sản cỗ định -10,82% -10,82% -10,82% -10,82% -10,82% 27 Tién cho vay hoặc mua công cụ nợ 96,42% 96,42% 96,42% 96,42% 96,42% 28 Tiên thu từ cho vay hoặc thu từ phát hành công cụ nợ 121,52% 121,52% 121,52% 121,52% 121,52% 29 Đâu tư vào các doanh nghiệp khác -25,00% -25,00% -25,00% -25,00% -25,00% 30 Tién thu tir việc bán các khoản đầu tư vào các doanh nghiệp khác 49.80% 49.80% 49.80% 49,80% 49,80% 31 Cô tức và tiên lãi nhận được 48,47% 4847% 48.47% 48.47% 48,47% 32 Lưu chuyên tiên tệ từ hoạt động tài chính -62,64% -62,64% -62,64% -62,64% -62,64% 33 Tiên thu từ phát hành cô phiéu và von gop F 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 34 Chỉ trả cho việc mua lại, trả lại cô phiêu r 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 35 Tiên thu được các khoản đi vay 27,05% 27,05% 27,05% 27,05% 27,05%

36 Tiền trả các khoản đi vay 36,51% 36,51% 36,51% 36,51% 36,51%

37 Tiên thanh toán vốn gốc đi thuê tài chính F 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 38 Cô tức đã trả P 26,42% 26,42% 26,42% 26,42% 26,42% 39 Tiền lãi đã nhận P 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 40 Lưu chuyên tiên thuần trong kỳ -32,46% -32,46% -32,46% -32,46% -32,46% 41 Tiền và tương đương tiền đầu kỳ 76,27% 76,27% 76,27% 76,27% 76,27% 42 Ảnh hưởng của chênh lệch tỷ giá 208,23% 208,23% 208,23% 208,23% 208,23% 43 Tién và tương đương tiên cudi kỳ T0,78% 70,78% 70,78% 70,78% 70,78%

With the assumptions, all elements in the Cash Flow follow the formula except The dividend payment We just use an average between Year 2021 and 2022 to assume Year 2023 to 2027 because the company has paid stable dividend for 2021 and 2022

K38 a fe =AVERAGE(I38:/38)

A 6 H ' J K L M N °

2 2019 2020 2021 2022

T8] Cé tire da tra | 113,69% 11123,92% 19,28% 33,57%[ 26.42%] 26,42% 2642% 2642% 2642%

Then, we use those assumptions to calculate forecast indicators of the Balance sheet by:

Forecast indicators = Previous indicator * (1 + Assumption)

Figure 2.4: Forecast Balance sheet

K3 7 fe =AVERAGE(G3:13)

A 1

2

3 [Luu chuyén tién thuan ti cdc hoat động sản xuất kinh doanh 31,92%] 31,92% 31,92% 31,92% 31,92% 4 Lãi/lỗ trước những thay đổi vốn lưu động 29,925 29,92% 29,92% 29,92% 29,92% 5 Lãi trước thuê 31,81% 31,81% 31,81% 31,81% 31,81% 6 Khẩu hao TSCĐ 34,59% 34,59% 34,59% 34,59% 34,59% 7 Phân bỗ lợi thé thương mại -49,05% -49,05% -49,05% -49,05% -49,05% 8 Chỉ phí dự phòng 78,31% 78,31% 78,31% 78,31% 78,31% 9 Lai/(16) chênh lệch tỷ giá chưa thực hiện P 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 10 Lã¡/(lỗ) từ thanh lý tài sản cỗ định F 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 11 Lãi/(lỗ) từ hoạt động dau tu 118,41% I1841% I11841% 11841% 11841% 12 Chỉ phí lãi vay 61,20% 61,20% 61,20% 61,20% 61,20% 13 Thu lai va cé ture r 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 14 Các khoản điều chỉnh khác lá 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 15 (Tăng)/giảm các khoản phải thu 181,19% 18119% 181/19% 181,19% 181,19% 16 (Tăng)/giảm hàng tôn kho 38,32% 38,32% 38,32% 38,32% 38,32%

17 Tăng/(giảm) các khoản phải trả 5,56% 5,56% 5,56% 5,56% 5,56%

18 ( Tăng)/giảm chỉ phí trả trước 39148% 39148% 39148% 39148% 391/48% 19 (Tăng)/giảm chứng khoán kinh doanh r 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 20 Chỉ phí lãi vay đã trả 55,35% 55,35% 55,35% 55,35% 55,35%

21 Thuê thu nhập doanh nghiệp đã trả 635% 6,35% 6,35% 6,35% 6,35%

22 Tiên thu khác từ các hoạt động kinh doanh lđ 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 23 Tiên chỉ khác từ các hoạt động kinh doanh 30,94% 30,94% 30,94% 30,94% 30,94% 24 ' Lưu chuyển tiên tệ ròng từ hoạt động đầu tư 5,48% 5,48% 5,48% 5,48% 5,48% 25 Tiên mua tài sản cỗ định và các tài sản dài hạn khác -3,97% -3,97% -3,97% -3,97% -3,97% 26 Tiên thu được từ thanh lý tài sản cô định -10,82% -10,82% -10,82% -10,82% -10,82%

27 Tién cho vay hoặc mua công cụ ng 96,42% 96,42% 96,42% 96,42% 96,42%

28 Tiền thu từ cho vay hoặc thu từ phát hành công cụ nợ 121,52% 12152% 12152% 121/52%_ 121,52% 29 Đầu tư vào các doanh nghiệp khác -25,00% -25,00% -25,00% -25,00% -25,00%

30 Tiên thu từ việc bán các khoản đâu tư vào các doanh nghiệp khác 49,80% 49,80% 49,80% 49,80% -49,80%

31 Cổ tức và tiền lãi nhận được 48,47% 48,47% 48,47% 48,47% 48,47% 32 Lưu chuyển tiền tệ từ hoạt động tài chính -62,64% -62,64% -62,64% -62,64% -62,64% 33 Tiên thu từ phát hành cô phiêu và vỗn góp r 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 34 Chỉ trả cho việc mua lại, trả lại cô phiếu r 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 45 Tiền thu được các khoản đi vay 27,05% 27,05% 27,05% 27,05% 27,05% 36 Tiên trả các khoản đi vay 36,51% 36,51% 36,51% 36,51% 36,51% 37 Tiên thanh toán vốn gốc đi thuê tài chính r 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 38 Cổ tức đã trả Y 2642% 26,42% 26,42% 26,42% 26,42% 39 Tiên lãi đã nhận r 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 40 Lưu chuyến tiên thuần trong kỳ -32,46% -32,46% -32,46% -32,46% -32,46% 41 Tiền và tương đương tién dau ky 16,27% 76,27% 76,27% 76,27% 16,27% 42 ¡ Ảnh hưởng của chênh lệch tỷ giá 208,23% 20823% 208/23% 208,23% 208,23% 43 |Tién va tuong duong tién cudi ky 70,78% 70,78% 70,78% 70,78% 70,78%

With the assumptions, all elements in the Cash Flow follow the formula except The dividend payment We just use an average between Year 2021 and 2022 to assume Year 2023 to 2027 because the company has paid stable dividend for 2021 and 2022

K38 - ƒ =AVERAGE(I38:/38)

A 6 " J K L w N °

2019 2020 202 2022

TW] Ch tie aa trad | 113,69% 11123,92% 19,28% 335 26,42%, 26,42% 26,42% 2642% 26A2%

Then, we use those assumptions to calculate forecast indicators of the Balance sheet by:

Forecast indicators = Previous indicator * (1 + Assumption)

Figure 2.4: Forecast Balance sheet G3 t) v & =f3*BSI@&+l

A F L H ' 4 1

2 TÀI SẢN 202 2024 2025 2026

3 |TÔNG TÀI SAN 170.335.519.508.132, 208.841 143.359 398i ee 760457 313,933.562.063.355 384.900602232.111 ~á_ TÀI SAN NGAN HAN 80.514.708,725.456,00 682 $6.760.827.167.375 218.735.214.596.743 305.210.778.542.260 3o TÀI SÀN DÁI HẠN 89,820.810.782.676,00 103.049.039.866.369 i 18.225.437,121.400 135.636.916.177691 155.612.645.452.117

67 NOPHAITRA 74.222.$79,892.349,00 89685619202803 108.370.125.418.119 130.947.237.556.362 158227915.280.933 88_ Nợ ngắn hạn 62.385.390,680.685,00 — 83.921.190.373.906 112.891.273.372338 151.861.997.510.354 204285/642272.555

B3 _ Nợ dài hạn a 18921166400 12.108422408.190 12385.870.546927 12.669.676.034.879 12.959.984.542.113 28 VON CHU SỞ HỮU 1578300 120316161.191493 150614253416094 1§§ 542030492337 236.020.804 SI 122 TONG CONG NGUON VON 170335519 508.132,00 208.841.143.359.398 256051252.760457 313.933.562.063.355 — 384.900.602.232.111

Figure 2.5: Forecast Profit and Loss Statement

2027

471.910.274.979.596 425.873.901 969.141

191.192.068.205.136

274.806.234.099.911 13.256.945.076.529 295455 713.597 471.910.274.979.596,

3 ih 990.36 7.645 vn 305.334.817.012.162,00 7 727343000 $06.836.167671.588,00 4 |Các khoản giám trừ } 6,00 ~l.862.804 526 sien as ras evan $48.621.670.398,51 +2981 085 381.770,5L 5 |Doanh số thuần „_ 14! 409 274 460632,00 82.467 893,269 384,00 335.448 008 61423 34.5" $05.848.787.172 6 jGiá vốn hàng bán | -124.64$.848.221,080,00 — -162.596.896.505.336,00 -212 10393990 11200 ưng: cha ? op 18 78 đi 0 21.921.703.799.$12,50 28661.236.077 295,10 $69.786,30

* | 707.331,00 7.495 469.463 989,83 15.007.292 848 012.40 3001520 758,10 rw HN no 9 (Chị phí tải chính | 3 tae KH DU -l2524607502583130 -2232227561554350 39.1 1.960,50 -70.912 HũSENN = — 7.75042 0 đá: Chí phí lầu vay | 418 4.970.950,051 482,91 -8.013.373.605 472.20 Tan n ~30824 144.390 327,30 Dan ri

12 'Chỉ phí | -2.665 806.087.302,00 -3.825,687.979.795 64 -$.490.229.986.519,95 879.007 764 465,32 11.307 133.496.491,30 16.226 823.439.829.200 a ta = aif toenk nghiệp | 1.019 a 00 -1.320.906.483.007,85 +1: — ry — 21748 718.086,38 -2873.411.378.625.48 -3.723.114440.77533

1“ 'Lã¡/(lỗ) từ hoạt động kinh doanh | 9.794.030.627.309,00 12.915.053.632.14640 17 22.457.723.290.451,10 zs 14 232.565.634,80 39/051.276.886.308.50

1% Tầu nhập khác } Tàn 724 926.00 11014.264.397 996/07 1 417910 3032624 1-372.132.170.07406 .495 946 502 055,11 lá4 1 Kne } ~143./114224.951.00 829 827.065.833,54 324.6115290 30 +14: \$ 605.147,70 ` 135 536 474.926,61 290.374 225.463 ,40 +? Thu nhập khác, ròng | 128.910.499.975,00 -1.941.1%1.092 %76,87 29.230.104 886 96,90 -440 140.140 16194600 6.627.847.1$2.323.320,00 -99802983344420900/00 0 [Bain ye du (từ năm 2015) | if ›

1 | 9.922.941.127.284,00 13.079.052.639.897,20 17.239.003.6! (22.722.077.339.565,80 29.949.109 019.186,40 39.474.785 58§5.790,70 20 La oe =ư= doanh nghưệp - liện thời } -1,001.020.240.086.00 +1.0334058.439.898.29 + (066122037: TẠI ~1.100243.855 mane 1.135.457.7593 aoa ~1.171.798.704 na

a Thuê thụ nhập doanh nghiép — hodn iat | 477.491 832682.00 000 2 Calpe thal cas ab deeab arhito } «1 478 %I2072.768,00 ~]1 934.144.183 730,38 ~l633.666218419/61 ~l.?17.246 165 sasi9 -1,.805.102 14440834 28940003218 23 |LãU/(lỗ) thuận sau } 8 444 429.084.516,00 11,534.923.667.109,00 14234401-2M0 #740 21421 5.969 400.047 060 323,10 40.139.884 873.315,00 z“ Lich enc ding te lểu số | 39.081 499.515, -27.338.249.125,21 -19.123.623.087,12 -13.377.336.535,19 -9 347.700.276,84 654581 T nhuận của Cé dong cba Cong ty me } §.483.510554.031,00 11.610.326.259.554.20 154 iat me a 21.746.134.152.187,90 29.761 230.422.583,50 40.730.496 2§3.496,50 29 |Lãi cơ bản trên cỏ phiêu } 145200 163548 207491 133710

27 |Lãi trên cổ phiểu pha loãng Ï 0,00 0,00 Mono 000 0,90

Figure 2.6: Forecast Cash flow

G3 +] vx ƒ& =f3*⁄4+ŒIK8)

ˆ : ° ` ' 7 x 1

a 12.277.636.676 00 6 07 92% $ 189201936842 ñ ng aasore 4+9 48 ‘ 19.291.127.380 767,00' TTUIUSTM77 23M0 400 tt: ”% 7| 403.209 897 880 s 9 922 941.127 284.00 3079.052 639.897 32.722 077.139 566 Ai 109.019 ¡8é 39.474 7§S 585 79| s é.??2 140.896 940,00 9.114.356 739.904 lá $10 343 &30 824 22121.131.106 793 3M 118

* 1.010.922.130 88,00 1.802.601 7%4 41 %731 440.499 147 10219 879 790.377 18 223.131.978 286 ° 333.983.153.559,00 333.983 133.554 333983 153.45 333.983 133.559 333.983.153.539

0

" -l.8312 298.259 730,00 4.00) 845 690.75) -19.089 241.7098! 414.692.011.259 91.057.771 142.379 2 3.085.638, 131,818,00 4.970.950 051,483 12.917.854 08 Ì ‹ 20.824 | 54 399 - 33569.383.602 627

1% 4.711.117.735.355,00 3 a an Tế 104.748 227 ki na 294.546.765 hoe #28 250.741 764 - si “ 8.023.194,725.141,00 11.097, 21.231.401 40619.342.828 501 wv 4 00 “azo 33 -11251 388 942 94 “1821131 M690 19 224.082 954.335 1% = 3.424.176 l62,00' A974 SNL S41,992.63: 1.531.173.705.423 7.525.447.521.127 2” „3 01 101.919 849.00 TH ~11 47 86§ 177 %: 17.829 473 146.466 ay 1.246 302.085 368,00 1.325.447 805,894 ~1.499 136.741.7% 1.594.338, 586 500 +

2 ~716 1 $27 307.00 ~1.017.135 169.37% ~].743 812 ¡90 29' ~2 281 324 §12 201 cr 12.74 Thi 5.975.174 333.864 269.874 A81 827.647.0028 a $04 ~17.178.096 143.412 ~l§.842 $67.%?0.204 ~l5.214.260 135.840 = 49 $3900 19.362 33: 18 442 z 381,00 - 109.025.878 S -120 641.528 §78 601 4

2 429.320 171/00 105,027.066.518.133 15.368 066 114i

a 644.1 733.131.967 186.787.386.731 $90) 540.049 » 172.170.842,00 3.649.432 841 844,072,025 (23.724.446

2 989.694 690,00 -&64.282 39% 268 -92 725 620 88% -34 643 618 98 aD 075.000.000,00 4.075 000.000 4075.000.000 4.075 (09.000

s 135% 290 023.212 840,00 171 &39.234 054.169 326.930 072 721 277 390 940 (128 099 342 433 69.049 869 447 777.479 072 789 »" „ = -134.770.628.3ó4.289,00 „3 261 439.%43 241,00 -183.969.075.812.961 -2 &99 003 602 S60 ~Ä 614.43 359 && 127.573.316.584 -342.802.494,393.099 -4 %60 476 64§ 414 467 943.637.610.782 -$ 776 866.642.925 638 767.954.03 ~? 303.284 3%0 478 1.606

”

“ ~14.126.%65.762 736,00 -9.54].111.549.000 -é 444.084 349,040 ~4.352 349.163.%6 -3 939.385 570.290 ~l.985.402.135.59 “ 22.471.375.%2.130,00 39.610,151.153.994 69.820.562.168.27! 123.072 262.020.436 216.938 695.542.471 382 396.462 460 846 a2 ~20.220.879.167,00 ~62.325 917.%66 -192.104.406.95| ~$92.114.879.514 1.825.049 389.060 ~$.625.268.656.046 a 8.324, 588,920.227,00 l4217045040393 24.280.402.506.056 4i 466 981.653.438 0.818.865 832.958 120 947.1 14.014.280

2.2 Future dividends 2.2.1 Definition

10

In the financial sector, future dividends are viewed as expected dividends that a company will pay to shareholders at some point in the future Dividends are usually a portion of a company's profits distributed to shareholders as a way of sharing the company's success with shareholders

Future dividends are supposed to be estimated based on expected future payments, these estimates are based on a variety of factors such as revenue, business expenses, etc 2.2.2 Calculation

Based on the financial statement forecast results, we will use them to forecast Future dividends, Free cash flow to the firm, P/E, and Dividend growth rate in the period 2023 - 2027

Future dividend in year t = Dividend in year (t-1) * g of year t In there:

g = Dividend growth rate = ROE x b = (Net income/Shareholder’s equity) x b b = Plowback or retention percentage rate

=1-d=1- Dividend payout ratio = | - (Dividend Payment/Net income)

Figure 2.7: Calculate ROE

a : fic ='PLforecast'!F23/8Sforecast'lF38 | ƒ 2022 2023 2024] 1035 2016 ¬ 7 [Recum of Equity ROE 1 II 9,59%] 10.46%) 142% 1246% 13.594

Figure 2.11; Future dividend

o19 : Íc_ =(D16+1)*ABSƒCF forecast'!G38)

11

As the result we have expected, the future dividends tend to increase the next 5 years The reason is that the dividend payout ratios tend to decrease, so the retention ratios will increase, which make the dividend growth rate increase

2.3 Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) 2.3.1 Definition

Free cash flow is the money left over after a corporation has paid all expenses related to operating its business, purchasing long-term or current assets, etc FCFF considers the money left over for investors as beneficiaries, which includes stockholders

The amount of cash left over from operating activities for distribution after depreciation costs, taxes, working capital, and investments are taken into account is known as the free cash flow to the company A company's profitability is determined by its FCFF, which accounts for all costs and reinvestments It is one of the numerous criteria used to assess and compare a company's financial stability

2.3.2 Calculation FCFF = EBIT (1 - tc) + Depreciation - Capital expenditures - ANWC In there:

e EBIT= earnings before interest and taxes = Profit before tax + Interest expense

® tec = The corporate tax rate

e NWC = Net working capital = current assets - short-term debt ANWC = Ending NWC - Beginning NWC

So we have:

Figure 2.12: Calculate EBIT

fic =ABS('PL forecast'lF10}+'PL forecast’IF19

2025 2026 2027|

5.639.961.421.246] $0.773.263.409.514) 3.044.169.188.417|

2023] 2024 102.691 380 $.252.377.219.719

HHỊ| Tm]

6.84%] 14904] 2025] 2026] 2027 13,02%| 13,02%| ae