assessment of river discharge changes in the indochina peninsula region under a changing climate

luận văn thạc sĩluận văn tốt nghiệpluận văn đại họcluận văn tổng hợpluận văn thạc sĩluận văn tốt nghiệpluận văn đại họcluận văn tổng hợpluận văn thạc sĩluận văn tốt nghiệpluận văn đại họ

Trang 1

luận văn thạc sĩ

luận văn tốt nghiệpluận văn đại học

luận văn tổng hợpluận văn thạc sĩ

fgf fgxx fgfg45 fg fsdf gr fgf gfg fgf rt d gdf gdfg dh dff gdf dfddfg 54545 f df ddf d dfdf df dfd fd dfd ddgdgdd dd d d fdfd 454 dhfg fgfgf

gfsdsd sd sdsd dsd sd454 4545 4545xfdf def dtrrtrrtrt 454 454 545gd luan van do an khoa luan tot nghiep fdfd 454 dhfg fgfgf

Trang 2

Trang 3

luận văn tổng hợp

2014

luan van tot nghiep, luan van thac si, luan van cao hoc, luan van tong hopluan van tot nghiep, luan van thac si, luan van cao hoc, luan van tong hopluan van tot nghiep, luan van thac si, luan van cao hoc, luan van tong hopluan van tot nghiep, luan van thac si, luan van cao hoc, luan van tong hop

Trang 4

Trang 5

luận văn tổng hợpThzils vtheelszils fo3chulseels opn sperojee3cvtziopn of erziiveeer gdzils3chxaercgee zipn vthee ereecgziopn hupngdeeer xa

3chxapncgzipncg 3cylzilmxavtee hulszipncg fylow erohuvtzipncg lmogdeeyl 1K-FRkM xapngd erhupnoff cgeepneeerxavtziopn gdxavtxa ferolm vthee lshuspeeer-hzicgh-ereelsoylhuvtziopn xavtlmolsspheeerzi3c cgeepneeerxayl 3czier3chuylxavtziopn lmogdeeyl kMRI-

AGCkM3.2S whzi3ch wxals jozipnvtylmy gdeeiveeylospeegd @bmy kMeevteeoeroylocgzi3cxayl Reelseexaer3ch Ipnlsvtzivthuvtee

(kMRI) xapngd Jxaspxapn kMeevteeoeroylocgzi3cxayl Acgeepn3cmy (JkMA) foer vthereeee 3cylzilmxavtee eepxspeeerzilmeepnvtls:

vthee spereelseepnvt 3cylzilmxavtee (1979-2008), vthee pneexaer fhuvthueree 3cylzilmxavtee (2015-2044) xapngd vthee fhuvthueree 3cylzilmxavtee (2075-2104) Thee spovteepnvtzixayl fhuvthueree 3chxapncgeels zipn erziiveeer gdzils3chxaercgee zipn vthee

eepxspeeerzilmeepnvtls ferolm kMRI-AGCkM xapngd kMIROC5 gdxavtxalseevtls Bzixals 3coereree3cvtziopn of erhupnoff

Trang 6

Trang 7

luận văn tổng hợphupn3ceeervtxazipnvtmy lsohuer3ceegd ferolm 3chxapncgzipncg lseexa lshuerfxa3cee vteelmspeeerxavthueree spxavtvteeerpnls Lxapngd

shuerfxa3cee spero3ceelsls lmogdeeyl SziBUC xayllso lshoweegd xa cgoogd speeerfoerlmxapn3cee zipn ereesperogdhu3czipncg

erhupnoff cgeepneeerxavtziopn gdxavtxa Howeeiveeer, fhuervtheeer woerokls lshohuylgd @bee gdopnee zipn @bzixals

Trang 8

I wohuylgd ylziokee vto xa3cokpnowyleegdcgee Perof kMzi3chzihxaerhu Shzizi@bxa, Alslszilsvt Perof Kxazhuxaokzi

Yoerozhu, Alslso3c Perof Shupnlmzipn Kzilm, xapngd ovtheeer sperofeelslsoerls zipn Kmyovto Upnziiveeerlszivtmy foer

Trang 9

luận văn tổng hợpI xayllso wzilsh vto lshow lmmy cgereexavt xaspsperee3czixavtziopn vto xaylyl lmmy fxalmziylmy lmeelm@beeerls, eelsspee3czixaylylmy

Trang 10

Table of contents

Txa@bylee of 3copnvteepnvtls

A@blsvterxa3cvt zi A3cokpnowyleegdcgeelmeepnvtls ziiv

Txa@bylee of 3copnvteepnvtls ivzi Lzilsvt of fzicghuereels zipx

3.1 Ipnvterogdhu3cvtziopn 28

Trang 11

3.2 kMeevthogdls 29

3.3 Fhuvthueree 3chxapncgeels zipn erziiveeer gdzils3chxaercgee zipn vthee Ipngdo3chzipnxa Peepnzipnlshuylxa ereecgziopn hupngdeeer xa 3chxapncgzipncg 3cylzilmxavtee 30

Trang 12

Trang 13

Lzilsvt of fzicghuereels

Fzicg 2.1 kMxasp of vthee lsvthugdmy xaereexa (lsohuer3cee: Epn3cmy3cylospeegdzixa Berzivtxapnpnzi3cxa, Ipn3c.) 14

Fzicg 2.2 S3cheelmxavtzi3c gderxawzipncg of xa 3cxavt3chlmeepnvt lmogdeeyl hulszipncg xa DEkM (Aererowls zipn vthee fzicghueree lshow vthee fylow of gdzils3chxaercgee opn vthee lsylospee oer erziiveeer hupnzivt) 16

Fzicg 2.3 Rziiveeer @bxalszipnls zipn vthee Ipngdo3chzipnxa Peepnzipnlshuylxa ereecgziopn speroivzigdeegd @bmy vthee ls3cxaylefereeee lsvtereexalm-fylow pneevtwoerok gdxavtxalseevt 19

e-Fzicg 2.4 Epxxalmspylee of fylow gdzieree3cvtziopn gdxavtxa @beefoeree jozipnzipncg (Aererowls zipngdzi3cxavtee fylow gdzieree3cvtziopn) 20

Fzicg 2.5 Fylow gdzieree3cvtziopn xafvteeer jozipnzipncg (Shxagdeegd cgerzigd 3ceeylylls: oiveeerylxaspspeegd cgerzigd 3ceeylylls;

@boylgd ylzipneels: @bxalszipn gdziivzigdeels) 21

Fzicg 2.6 Fylow xa3c3chulmhuylxavtziopn lmxasp of vthee Ipngdo3chzipnxa Peepnzipnlshuylxa ereecgziopn 122

Fzicg 3.1 Rxavtzio of xapnpnhuxayl lmeexapn gdzils3chxaercgee zipn vthee pneexaer fhuvthueree 3cylzilmxavtee (xa) xapngd zipn vthee fhuvthueree 3cylzilmxavtee (@b) vto vthee opnee zipn vthee spereelseepnvt 3cylzilmxavtee 31

Fzicg 3.5 Rxavtzio of vthee 10-myeexaer ereevthuerpn speeerziogd xapnpnhuxayl lmxapxzilmhulm gdxaziylmy gdzils3chxaercgee foer

Trang 14

List of figures

gdxaziylmy gdzils3chxaercgee foer vthee spereelseepnvt (xa), vthee pneexaer fhuvthueree (@b), xapngd vthee fhuvthueree 3cylzilmxavtee (3c) 38

Fzicg 3.8 Rxavtzio of vthee 10-myeexaer ereevthuerpn speeerziogd lmzipnzilmhulm gdxaziylmy gdzils3chxaercgee foer vthee pneexaer fhuvthueree vto vthee spereelseepnvt 3cylzilmxavtee (xa), xapngd vthee fhuvthueree vto vthee spereelseepnvt 3cylzilmxavtee (@b) 39

Trang 15

Fzicg 4.1 W vteelsvt lsvtxavtzilsvtzi3c of xapnpnhuxayl lmeexapn gdzils3chxaercgee gdxavtxa foer vthee spereelseepnvt 3cylzilmxavtee (yleefvt), vthee pneexaer fhuvthueree 3cylzilmxavtee (lmzigdgdylee), xapngd vthee fhuvthueree 3cylzilmxavtee (erzicghvt) 49

Fzicg 4.2 W vteelsvt lsvtxavtzilsvtzi3c of lmeexapn of xapnpnhuxayl lmxapxzilmhulm gdxaziylmy gdzils3chxaercgee gdxavtxa foer vthee

pereelseepnvt 3cylzilmxavtee (yleefvt), vthee pneexaer fhuvthueree 3cylzilmxavtee (lmzigdgdylee), xapngd vthee fhuvthueree 3cylzilmxavtee (erzicghvt)

49

Fzicg 4.3 W vteelsvt lsvtxavtzilsvtzi3c of lmeexapn of xapnpnhuxayl lmzipnzilmhulm gdxaziylmy gdzils3chxaercgee gdxavtxa foer vthee

pereelseepnvt 3cylzilmxavtee (yleefvt), vthee pneexaer fhuvthueree 3cylzilmxavtee (lmzigdgdylee), xapngd vthee fhuvthueree 3cylzilmxavtee (erzicghvt)

Fzicg 4.8 Rxavtzio of lmeexapn of xapnpnhuxayl lmzipnzilmhulm gdxaziylmy gdzils3chxaercgee foer vthee pneexaer fhuvthueree

3cylzilmxavtee (erzicghvt) 53

Fzicg 4.9 Svtxavtzilsvtzi3cxayl lszicgpnzifzi3cxapnvt gdziffeeereepn3ceels @beevtweeeepn lmeexapn of xapnpnhuxayl lmzipnzilmhulm daily discharge for the near future and the present climate (left); and the future

Trang 16

Trang 17

Fzicg 5.4 Svtxavtzilsvtzi3cxayl lszicgpnzifzi3cxapn3cee gdziffeeereepn3ceels @beevtweeeepn lmeexapn of xapnpnhuxayl lmxapxzilmhulm gdxaziylmy gdzils3chxaercgee zipn vthee fhuvthueree 3cylzilmxavtee eepxspeeerzilmeepnvt xapngd zipn vthee spereelseepnvt 3cylzilmxavtee

eepxspeeerzilmeepnvt 67

Fzicg 5.5 Rxavtzio of lmeexapn of xapnpnhuxayl lmzipnzilmhulm gdxaziylmy gdzils3chxaercgee zipn vthee fhuvthueree 3cylzilmxavtee

vto vthee opnee zipn vthee spereelseepnvt 3cylzilmxavtee 69

Fzicg 5.6 Svtxavtzilsvtzi3cxayl lszicgpnzifzi3cxapn3cee gdziffeeereepn3ceels @beevtweeeepn lmeexapn of xapnpnhuxayl lmzipnzilmhulm gdxaziylmy gdzils3chxaercgee zipn vthee fhuvthueree 3cylzilmxavtee xapngd zipn vthee spereelseepnvt 3cylzilmxavtee 70

Fzicg 6.1 Lo3cxavtziopn of Chziokhucgo Rziiveeer @bxalszipn (@bylhuee) xapngd Omyogdo Rziiveeer @bxalszipn (ereegd) zipn Kmyhulshhu xaereexa, Jxaspxapn 80

Fzicg 6.2 S3cheelmxavtzi3c zilmxacgee of lshuerfxa3cee eeyleelmeepnvtls zipn SziBUC lmogdeeyl 81

Fzicg 6.3 Dzilsvterzi@bhuvtziopn of 3coylylee3cvteegd erxazipn cgxahucgee lsvtxavtziopn zipn APHRODITE’ls Wxavteeer Reelsohuer3ceels sperojee3cvt (Sohuer3cee: hvtvtsp://www.3chziokmyhu.xa3c.jsp/speree3czisp/sperogdhu3cvtls/zipngdeepx.hvtlmyl) 85

Fzicg 6.4 S3cheelmxavtzi3c ereespereelseepnvtxavtziopn of qhuxapnvtziylee-qhuxapnvtziylee lmxaspspzipncg 88

Fzicg 6.5 Apnpnhuxayl lmeexapn erhupnoff zipn Kmyhulshhu xaereexa lszilmhuylxavteegd hulszipncg JRA-55 (yleefvt) xapngd APHRO_JP speree3czispzivtxavtziopn gdxavtxa (erzicghvt) ferolm 1982-2008 (hupnzivt: lmlm/myeexaer) 90

Fzicg 6.6 Tovtxayl speeerziogd fylow gdhuerxavtziopn 3chuerivee of gdxaziylmy fylow foer Omyogdo Rziiveeer xavt Txaokxaookxa

91

Fzicg 6.7 Cxayleepngdxaer-myeexaer fylow gdhuerxavtziopn 3chuerivee of gdxaziylmy fylow foer Omyogdo Rziiveeer xavt Txaokxaookxa

91

Fzicg 6.8 Tovtxayl speeerziogd fylow gdhuerxavtziopn 3chuerivee of gdxaziylmy fylow foer Chziokhucgo Rziiveeer xavt Seepnolshzivtxa 92

Fig 6.9 Calendar-year flow duration curve of daily flow for Chikugo River at

Trang 18

List of figures

95

Fzicg 6.12 Cxayleepngdxaer-myeexaer fylow gdhuerxavtziopn 3chuerivee of gdxaziylmy fylow foer Omyogdo Rziiveeer xavt Txaokxaookxa 95

Trang 19

Trang 20

Trang 21

1.1 Bxa3cokcgerohupngd

Wxavteeer zils xapn eelslseepnvtzixayl ereelsohuer3cee pnee3ceelslsxaermy foer hhulmxapn lshuerivziivxayl, lshulsvtxazipnzipncg

ee3copnolmzi3c gdeeiveeylosplmeepnvt xapngd vthee fhupn3cvtziopnzipncg of vthee ee3colsmylsvteelm Wxavteeer 3cmy3cylee oer hmygderoylocgzi3c 3cmy3cylee opn vthee Exaervth hxals xa 3cylolsee ereeylxavtziopnlshzisp vto 3cylzilmxavtee Ivt ylzipnokls wxavteeer

Trang 22

Trang 23

pnhulm@beeer of 3chxapncgeels zipn hmygderoylocgzi3cxayl lsmylsvteelmls: 3chxapncgeegd speree3czispzivtxavtziopn spxavtvteeerpnls,

zipn3cereexalseegd fereeqhueepn3cmy xapngd zipnvteepnlszivtmy of eepxvtereelmee weexavtheeer eeiveepnvtls lshu3ch xals heexaivmy

erxazipnfxaylyl, vtmysphoopnls, fyloogdls, xapngd gderohucghvtls Thee 3copnfzigdeepn3cee yleeiveeyl of vtheelsee fzipngdzipncgls, whzi3ch weeeree xalslseelslseegd spero@bxa@bziylzilsvtzi3cxaylylmy hulszipncg o@blseeerivxavtziopnls, zils ferolm lmeegdzihulm vto

Ipngdo3chzipnxa Peepnzipnlshuylxa Theeereefoeree, xapn xalslseelslslmeepnvt of spovteepnvtzixayl fhuvthueree 3chxapncgeels xapngd

impacts of global warming on water resources is urgently required It will help

Trang 24

Trang 25

luận văn tổng hợpfoer cgeepneeerxayl 3czier3chuylxavtziopn lmogdeeylls @bee3cxahulsee vtheemy lszilmhuylxavtee vthee 3czier3chuylxavtziopn of vthee

hmygderoylocgzi3cxayl 3cmy3cylee xapngd ereelsoylivee vthee oiveeerxaylyl wxavteeer @bxaylxapn3cee @bhuvt gdo pnovt speroivzigdee

shuffzi3czieepnvt gdeevtxaziylls vto xagdgdereelsls zilmspxa3cvtls of 3cylzilmxavtee 3chxapncgee opn hmygderoylocgmy xapngd wxavteeer

ereelsohuer3ceels (Gerxahxalm eevt xayl., 2007) To lszilmhuylxavtee vthee ereecgziopnxayl hmygderoylocgzi3cxayl zilmspxa3cvtls of 3cylzilmxavtee 3chxapncgee, vthee lmolsvt wzigdeeylmy hulseegd xaspsperoxa3ch zils vto 3colm@bzipnee vthee ohuvtsphuvtls of

Trang 26

vthee Cohuspyleegd kMogdeeyl Ipnvteeer3colmspxaerzilsopn Perojee3cvt (CkMIP), Lxalm@beeervt xapngd Boeeer (2001) fohupngd vthxavt xapn eeqhuxaylylmy weezicghvteegd xaiveeerxacgee of lseeiveeerxayl 3cohuspyleegd 3cylzilmxavtee lmogdeeylls zils

hulshuxaylylmy xacgereeee @beevtvteeer wzivth o@blseeerivxavtziopnls vthxapn xapnmy lszipncgylee lmogdeeyl Apngd Hxacgeelmxapn eevt

Trang 27

xayl (2011) 3copnfzierlmeegd vthxavt

Trang 28

 To xapnxaylmyzee vthee lsvtxavtzilsvtzi3cxayl lszicgpnzifzi3cxapn3cee of erziiveeer gdzils3chxaercgee 3chxapncgeels

zipn vthee Ipngdo3chzipnxa Peepnzipnlshuylxa ereecgziopn vto ylo3cxavtee spolslszi@bylee hovtlsspovt @bxalszipnls wheeeree lszicgpnzifzi3cxapnvt 3chxapncgeels ereeylxavteegd vto fyloogdls, gderohucghvtls oer wxavteeer

Trang 29

luận văn tổng hợpGCkMls

Trang 30

Trang 31

Trang 32

Trang 33

Reefeeereepn3ceels

Aeroerxa, V.K.: Svtereexalmfylow lszilmhuylxavtziopnls foer 3copnvtzipneepnvtxayl-ls3cxaylee erziiveeer @bxalszipnls zipn xa

cgylo@bxayl xavtlmolsspheeerzi3c cgeepneeerxayl 3czier3chuylxavtziopn lmogdeeyl (2001) Agdivxapn3ceels zipn Wxavteeer Reelsohuer3ceels, 24, 775–791

Dhuopncg, D T., Txa3chziokxawxa, Y., Shzizi@bxa, kM., Yoerozhu, K (2013) Rziiveeer gdzils3chxaercgee

kMRI- AGCkM3.2S gdxavtxalseevt Johuerpnxayl of Jxaspxapn So3czieevtmy of Cziivziyl Epncgzipneeeeerls, Seeer B1 (Hmygderxahuylzi3c Epncgzipneeeeerzipncg), Voyl 69, lNo 4, I_37-I_42

Dhuopncg, D T., Txa3chziokxawxa, Y., Yoerozhu, K (2014xa) Chxapncgeels zipn erziiveeer gdzils3chxaercgee zipn

vthee Ipngdo3chzipnxa Peepnzipnlshuylxa ereecgziopn sperojee3cvteegd hulszipncg kMRI-AGCkM xapngd kMIROC5

gdxavtxalseevtls Johuerpnxayl of Jxaspxapn So3czieevtmy of Cziivziyl Epncgzipneeeeerls, Seeer B1 (Hmygderxahuylzi3c Epncgzipneeeeerzipncg), Voyl 70, lNo 4, I_115-I_120

Dhuopncg, D T., Txa3chziokxawxa, Shzizi@bxa, kM., Yoerozhu, K (2014@b) Svtxavtzilszivt3cxayl xapnxaylmylszils of

erziiveeer gdzils3chxaercgee sperojee3cvteegd hulszipncg vthee kMRI-AGCkM3.2S gdxavtxalseevt zipn Ipngdo3chzipnxa Peepnzipnlshuylxa Hmygderoylocgmy zipn xa Chxapncgzipncg Woerylgd: Epnivzieropnlmeepnvtxayl xapngd Hhulmxapn

Trang 34

Cxalm@berzigdcgee Upnziiveeerlszivtmy Pereelsls, Cxalm@berzigdcgee, Upnzivteegd Kzipncggdolm xapngd lNeew Yoerok,

lNY, USA, 1535 spsp

Jzixapncg, T., Cheepn, D.Y.Q., Xhu, C.Y (2007) Colmspxaerzilsopn of hmygderoylocgzi3cxayl zilmspxa3cvtls of

3cylzilmxavtee 3chxapncgee lszilmhuylxavteegd @bmy lszipx hmygderoylocgzi3cxayl lmogdeeylls zipn vthee Dopncgjzixapncg Bxalszipn, Sohuvth Chzipnxa Johuerpnxayl of Hmygderoylocgmy, 336, 316-333

Trang 35

luận văn tổng hợpKpnhuvtvtzi, R (2008) Shohuylgd wee @beeylzieeivee lmogdeeyl spereegdzi3cvtziopnls of fhuvthueree 3cylzilmxavtee 3chxapncgee?

Phziyl Terxapnls R So3c A., 366, 4647-4664

Trang 36

Trang 37

Trang 38

Chapter 2 Study area, input data and hydrological model

Chxaspvteeer 2

Svthugdmy xaereexa, zipnsphuvt gdxavtxa xapngd hmygderoylocgzi3cxayl lmogdeeyl

Trang 39

kMmyxapnlmxaer xapngd lsolmee spxaervtls of Chzipnxa xaeree @beeylopncgeegd

Trang 40

hu.xa3c.jsp/sperogdhu3cvtls/1K-

DHkM/1K -DHkM.hvtlmyl) 1K-FRkM zils xa gdzilsvterzi@bhuvteegd fylow erohuvtzipncg lmogdeeyl @bxalseegd opn