In addition, 34,010 businesses returned to operation, an increase of 28.6% over the previous year, bringing the total number of new and reopened businesses in 2018 to nearly 165 thousand
OVERVIEW OF THE TOPIC
Research Objectives
General overview of production fluctuations of our country in 4 years 2018-2021
Research on Vietnam's output in 4 years 2018-2019 Impact of Covid 19 on Vietnam's output.
Research object
Impact of Covid-19 on Vietnam's output.
Scope of research
Research on the impact of covid 19 on Vietnam's output
Actual situation of Vietnam's output fluctuations in 2018-2021
Pre-pandemic output
It can be affirmed that Vietnam's output before the Covid-19 pandemic is still growing steadily, achieving impressive results, marking a remarkable development of the country's economy That is shown very clearly in the following aspects
The GDP for 2018 increased by 7.08%, the highest since 2008 The agriculture, forestry, and fishery sector grew by 3.76%, contributing 8.7% to the growth The industry and construction sector grew by 8.85%, contributing 48.6%, while the service sector grew by 7.03%, contributing 42.7% The agriculture, forestry, and fishery sector had the highest growth between 2012-2018, indicating that industry restructuring has been effective and product sales and exports are stable Exports are the main driving force behind the region's production In 2019, GDP increased by 7.02%, exceeding the target set by the National Assembly The agriculture, forestry, and fishery sector grew by 2.01%, contributing 4.6% to the growth The industry and construction sector grew by 8.90%, contributing 50.4%, while the service sector grew by 7.3%, contributing 45%
In 2018, Vietnam witnessed a rise in business establishment with 131.3 thousand new companies, indicating a 3.5% growth Registered capital also increased by 14.1% to 1,478.1 trillion VND The average capital per new business reached 11.3 billion VND, a 10.2% increase The economy benefited from an additional 3,886.9 trillion VND in registered capital from businesses expanding their operations Notably, 34,010 businesses resumed operations, leading to a total of 165 thousand newly established and reopened businesses However, registered employees in new enterprises decreased by 4.7% to 1,107.1 thousand, while businesses temporarily suspending operations surged by 49.7% to 90,651 In 2019, the business landscape saw a further expansion with 138.1 thousand new businesses and 4,003.2 trillion VND in additional registered capital Registered employees grew by 13.3% to 1,254.4 thousand, and 39.4 thousand businesses returned to operation, boosting the total count to 177.5 thousand new and reopened businesses.
In November 2018, export turnover reached 21.7 billion USD, surpassing estimates by 147 million USD Despite a slight decline of 3.4% in December, exports remained 6.5% higher year-over-year Overall, 2018 saw export turnover of 244.7 billion USD, marking a 13.8% growth from 2017 The domestic economic sector contributed 28.3% to total exports, while the foreign-invested sector held a significant 71.7% share In 2019, projected exports are estimated at 263.45 billion USD, indicating an 8.1% increase Industrial and mineral products dominated exports with 50.5%, followed by small industry and handicrafts (38.3%), agricultural and forestry products (7.9%), and aquatic products (3.3%).
As of December 20, 2019, means of payment increased by 12.1% compared to 2018; capital mobilization of credit institutions increased by 12.5% and credit growth of the economy increased by 12.1% Insurance business achieved high growth with an estimated increase of 20% over the same period last year Insurance premium revenue increased by 25%, while non-life insurance increased by 10% In 2019, insurance premium revenue reached VND 160.2 trillion, up 20.3% compared to 2018 On the bond market, there are
509 listed bond codes with a listed value of 1,162 trillion VND, up 3.7% compared to 2018
On the derivatives market, the average trading volume since the beginning of the year has reached 89,266 contracts/session, up 13% compared to 2018 The number of derivative trading accounts reached 89,795 accounts in November 2019, an increase of 3.3% compared to the previous month and an increase of 55.7% compared to 2018
Per capita income in 2018 was estimated at VND 58.5 million, equivalent to USD 2.587, an increase of USD 198 compared to 2017
GDP throughout 2018 increased by 7,08% compared to the previous year, increasing per capita income
The labor productivity of the entire economy at current prices in 2018 is estimated at VND 102 million per worker, equivalent to USD 4,512 / per worker
The average monthly income of workers earning wages in 2019 increased compared to the previous year:
The group “Leaders in industries, levels, and units” was VND 11.4 million per month, up VND 1.7 million compared to the previous year
The group “High Technical Specialists” is VND 9.2 million per month, up VND 1 million compared to the previous year
The “Simple Work” group is VND 4.8 million per month, up VND 717 thousand compared to the previous year
Workers with university qualifications and above were VND 9.3 million per month, up VND 1.06 million compared to the previous year
Primarily skilled labor was VND 7.7 million per month, an increase of VND 1.08 million compared to the previous year
Unfinished primary school employment is $5 million per month
Employees who never went to school were $4.2 million a month
Output during the pandemic: II.
GDP in 2020 increased by 2.91%, which is a major success for Vietnam with growth in
2020 among the highest in the world This success demonstrates the correctness in the direction, and execution of economic recovery, disease prevention, and the determination of the entire political system, the Government, the Prime Minister; the efforts of the people, and the business community to effectively implement the goal of "prevention of disease, and economic and social development".
Output during the pandemic
Despite challenges posed by COVID-19, Vietnam's industry sector witnessed a significant 3.36% growth rate in 2020, contributing 1.12 percentage points to the country's economic growth Manufacturing emerged as a key driver, contributing 1.25 percentage points with a robust 5.82% growth rate Additionally, electricity production and distribution sector grew by 3.92%, contributing 0.19 percentage points, while water supply, waste management, and wastewater disposal industries experienced a 5.51% growth, adding 0.04 percentage points to the overall growth rate.
Vietnam managed well with Covid-19 in 2020, enabling high commercial activity and customer service
Retail sales of goods and services rose 6.4% from the previous quarter and 8% from the same period in the previous year, with total revenue of
VND 5.059.8 trillion, up 2.6% from the preceding year (excluding price) However, the growth rate was lower than the 9.5% increase recorded in 2019 International travel and tourism were problematic while domestic travel improved gradually
In the fourth quarter of 2021, commercial activity, domestic transport and international tourists gradually recovered Total retail sales of goods and sales of consumer services in the fourth quarter of
2021 increased by 28.1% compared to the previous quarter, with significant growth in passenger and goods transport However, compared to the same period last year, the figure decreased by 2.8% In 2021, the total retail sales of goods and consumer services revenue was estimated at VND 4.789,5 trillion, down 3.8% compared to the previous year, excluding the price factor down 6.2% (compared with a 3% drop in 2020)
1.3 Agriculture, forestry and fishery sector:
Livestock products and shrimp output in agriculture, forestry, and aquaculture industries showed significant growth in
2020, surpassing the growth rate of 2019
The forestry sector accounted for a low proportion but still increased by 2.82%, contributing only 0.02 percentage points The fisheries industry had a higher growth rate of
0.29 percentage points to the total added value of the entire landscape, surpassing the growth rate of 2.8% in 2015 and 2016 during the period 2011-2020
In 2020, despite the Covid-19 pandemic, government and business community efforts led to 134.9 thousand new business registrations with an average registered capital of 16.6 billion VND, an increase of 32.3% The manufacturing industry showed optimism in Q1/2021
However, in 2021, the fourth wave of Covid-19 and lockdowns led to a 10.7% decrease in new business registrations and a 17.8% increase in enterprises withdrawing, mostly small ones with low capital
In 2020, amid the Covid-19 pandemic and global trade breakdown, both exports and imports saw significant efforts Goods exports increased by 5.1% to $543.9 billion, with exports and imports reaching $281.5 billion and $262.4 billion, respectively The commodity trade balance was estimated at $19.1 billion, the highest in five years In 2021, commodity exports are expected to increase by 19% to $336.25 billion, with 35 items achieving export quotas of over $1 billion, accounting for 93.8% of the total export quota.
Impact of covid 19 on Vietnam's output
An overview of the Covid 19 epidemic and its impact on the economy in general
1 A general overview of the Covid-19 epidemic:
The COVID-19 pandemic is an infectious disease pandemic caused by a virus SARS- CoV-2 was discovered in December 2019 in Wuhan, China Country On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) issued a statement called "COVID-19" a "Global Pandemic" The first infection was recorded in Vietnam on January 23, 2020 (one of the first countries first outside mainland China to record a case of COVID-19)
However, due to the timely response of the Vietnamese Government, the COVID-19 epidemic relatively well controlled As a result, Vietnam has significantly reduced the economic losses as well as human losses, especially when compared with neighboring countries in the same situation
COVID-19 cases and cases in
2.Impact of the Covid-19 epidemic on the economy in general:
2.1.Impact of the Cov -19 epidemic on the world economy: id
The COVID-19 pandemic is a powerful health shock, affecting all aspects of the world economy Global growth of many countries and regions is negative; global trade and investment declined; workers lost their jobs, unemployment rate business increased In the midst of difficulties brought about by the epidemic, there are also opportunities appearing, especially online socio economic activities such as online sales, online learning, and online - meetings COVID-19 is accelerating the application process and launching new products from the fourth industrial revolution
2.2 Impact of the Covid-19 epidemic on Vietnam's economy:
The Covid-19 pandemic has taken place from the end of 2019 to the present, causing a comprehensive impact, And spreading to all countries in the world is still complicated The global economy fell into a serious recession, and Vietnam's economy was also greatly affected by the Covid-19 pandemic The COVID-19 outbreak has brought unprecedented challenges that are expected to have significant impacts on the development of Vietnam's economy this year The Covid-19 pandemic is also the most serious economic challenge, even more, profound than life The Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 COVID-19 is expected to depress potential growth in the region Although the COVID-19 shock causes current output to fall below potential output, it still has likely to reduce the growth rate of energy output in the region
On May 9, 2021, the Covid-19 epidemic negatively affected the Vietnamese economy
The prolonged COVID-19 outbreak in Vietnam's Southeast provinces, Mekong Delta, and Hanoi has had severe economic consequences The implementation of strict social distancing measures under Directive 16 for a significant period has negatively impacted growth As a result, the GDP in the third quarter of 2021 experienced the sharpest decline since the start of quarterly GDP calculations in Vietnam.
Comparison of fluctuations before and during the Covid -19 pandemic
1.Impact on many industry groups:
GDP in the third quarter of 2021 decreased by 6.17% compared to the same period last year, of which, except for the agriculture, forestry, and fishery sector, which achieved a positive growth of 1.04% but still very low in the past 10 years (only higher than the growth rate of 0.97% in 9 months of 2016); Industry and construction, and service sectors both decreased by 5.02% and 9.28%, respectively Although GDP in the third quarter of 2021 decreased deeply, in general, 9 months, GDP growth still reached 1.42% over the same period last year; besides the service sector, it decreased by 0.69%, the agriculture, forestry, and fishery, and the service sector still achieved positive growth of 2.74% and 3.57%, respectively, but both were lower than that of the service sector expected
According to the General Statistics Office, in 2020, there are 134.9 thousand newly registered enterprises and the total number of registered employees is 1,043 thousand employees, a decrease of 2.3% in the number of businesses, and a decrease of 16.9% in the number of employees compared to 2019 In addition, there were 101.7 thousand enterprises temporarily suspending business suspended operations pending dissolution and completion of dissolution procedures, an increase of 13.9% over the previous year
Among the surveyed enterprises, 0.27% of enterprises are waiting for dissolution/bankruptcy; and
0.27% of enterprises have to stop operating for a long time;
Businesses are still operating as normally as before the
Import-export turnover was severely affected in the first months of the year due to difficulties of partner countries, and Vietnam's export demand decreased, leading to a sharp decrease in the signing of new orders
Merchandise turnover in 2020 is estimated at 262.4 billion USD, up 3.6% compared to
2019 The increase in the last period is also relatively positive when in the first 7 months of the year, import turnover is only new is 139.3 billion USD, down 2.9% over the same period
Vietnam's trade balance in goods experienced a surge in 2020, resulting in a trade surplus of 19.1 billion USD, a significant increase from the 9.9 billion USD surplus in 2019 However, the country faced a trade deficit in services, amounting to 8.16 billion USD, equivalent to 149.2% of service export turnover Despite the trade deficit in services, Vietnam attracted substantial foreign direct investment (FDI), with realized FDI in 2020 reaching approximately 19.1 billion USD.
20 billion USD, down 2% compared to 2019 As of December 20, 2020, there were 2523 newly licensed projects, down 35% with newly registered capital of 14.6 billion USD, down 12.5 % Accordingly, the Government had to increase the size and level of State investment capital to partially compensate, with an increase of up to 14.5% (compared to an increase of 2.6% in 2019)
Realized social investment capital at current prices in the first nine months of 2021 only increased by 0.4% over the same period last year because many localities applied social distancing measures, disrupting production and supply chains of production, business, and investment activities Realized social investment capital at current prices in 9 months was estimated at 1,868.5 trillion dongs, up 0.4% over the same period last year (in the third quarter of 2021 reached 697.2 trillion dongs, down 9 5%), including State capital reached 459.9 trillion dongs, accounting for 24.6% of total capital and decreased by 4.7% over the same period last year; the non-state sector reached 1,100.5 trillion VND, equaling 58.9% and increasing by 3.9%; the foreign direct investment sector reached 308.1 trillion dongs, equaling 16.5% and decreasing by 3.4%
Core inflation in September 2021 decreased by 0.26% compared to the previous month and increased by 0.74% compared to the previous month with the same period last year
On average in 9 months of 2021, core inflation increased 0.88% over the same period in
2020, lower than the overall average CPI, this reflects fluctuations in consumer prices mainly due to food prices, gasoline prices, gas increases Core inflation in September and
9 months of 2021 compared to the same period last year both were the lowest growth rates since 2011 until now
Inflation situation, core inflation in the economy
For banks, the SBV's incentives and government support for businesses and individuals, up to this point, have limited the damage to the balance sheets and profits of banks ( PwC, 2020)
Low credit growth in 2020 puts pressure on credit growth in the last months of the year Profits of commercial banks remained at a good level, however, the risk of bad debt increased
Thus, economic activity in the third quarter of 2021 declined sharply mainly due to strict containment measures applied on a large scale and for a long time Due to the large proportion, each change in GRDP growth of these key provinces and cities has a significant impact on the GDP of the whole economy
3 Impact on per capita income:
Most economic areas experienced an average decrease in employment in the third quarter of 2021 compared to the second quarter The most income reductions have been experienced by workers in the service sector, with an average monthly income of 6.2 million down about 1.0 million, or 14.3%, from the prior quarter The average income for industrial and construction workers is VND 5.8 million, a decline of VND 906 thousand, or 13.5%, from the previous quarter Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries labor no longer exhibit the consistent growth rate seen in previous quarters and have even started to drop This region's labor revenue is down
340 thousand VND per person, or 9.2%, from the previous quarter, at 3.4 million VND/person/month.
Comment on the impact of the Covid -19 pandemic on Vietnam's output
A lot of strain has been placed on the Vietnamese economy in general and the labor market in particular because of the COVID-19 epidemic This reality presents the government with significant obstacles as it works to meet its growth objectives for 2021 Although COVID-19 has unfavorable (unpleasant) effects, it also provides opportunities (positives)
The growth rate in the first quarter of 2020 was 3.82%; it fell to 0.39% in the second quarter; it then rose once more to 2.62% in the third quarter, bringing the growth for the first nine months of 2020 to 2.12% Although change is still positive, this is one of the few countries with growth and represents the smallest increase when compared to the same time from 2011 to 2020
The COVID-19 translation has the most significant impact on the industrial construction industry and the service sector, with 86.1% and 85.9% of affected enterprises, respectively The following industries typically have a high percentage of businesses impacted by the COVID-19 translation: 100% aviation, 97.1% lodging, 95.5% catering, 95.7% tourism agent activities, 93.9% education and training, textile and apparel industry, leather production, leather products, electronic products, umbrellas Over 90% is the average percentage for the bowl
The General Statistics Office predicts that the GDP will grow by 2.12% over the same period in 2019 in the first nine months of 2020, which is the smallest increase compared to the same period from 2011 to 2020 Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries grew by 1.84% and contributed 13.62% to the total growth of the economy; industry and construction grew by 3.08% and contributed 58.35%; and the service sector grew by 1.37% and contributed 28.03% Despite numerous challenges brought on by the COVID-19 translation and the disruption of global trade, the trade balance continued to be in surplus in September with a surplus of 3.5 billion USD, bringing the nine-month export value to almost 17 billion USD, nearly doubling from the same period in 2019
Local economics is increasingly what drives people, 35.4% of the nation's total export turnover was made up of exports, with a 9-month rise in export turnover of 20.2% After the second outbreak was contained, there are also signs that domestic trade and transportation operations are increasing once more (July 2020)
Quarterly GDP growth (compared to the same period in 2020)
Quickly issuing conclusions, resolutions, and directives under the guiding principle of
"anti-epidemic measures such as battling against the enemy"; committed to implementing
"dual targets" that prioritize resuming socio-economic growth while effectively and drastically preventing epidemics Epidemic management is covered
To safeguard people's health and social stability, the disease is a top concern The COVID-
19 epidemic outbreak and unidentified geographic expansion have exacerbated the recession trend and the world economic crisis Soon, it will be crucial to maximizing the domestic market while preventing and responding to external instability, maintaining financial stability through macro and inflation control, and ensuring social security, livelihood, employment, and a decent quality of life for workers, the poor, and the weak
PART 3: Orientation and solutions to develop the economy in the coming time:
By 2022, the General Director of the General Statistics Office will face numerous dangers and difficulties Consequently, six ways exist to realize the proposed socio- economic development objective for 2022: finding quick fixes for problems, actively seizing every chance, and fully realizing all potential and domestic resources
Economic recovery and a growth slowdown remain possible risks Hidden The danger of inflation tends to rise if the epidemic is not contained, and the economy is not reopened
In addition to natural disasters, climate change is a constant danger
According to the General Statistics Office's report, Vietnam's GDP is projected to grow by 5.2% over the same time in 2020 in the fourth quarter, which is higher than the country's average rate of growth 4.6% more than the prior year, but still less than the fourth quarter's growth average between 2011 and 2019 As a result, the average consumer price index increased by 1.84%, the industrial production index increased by 4.8%, and the GDP only grew by 2.58% from 2020 to 2021
According to the general evaluation, by 2021, despite the COVID-19 epidemic's ongoing complexity, the socio-economic situation in the nation was still improving thanks to the participation of all parties The political system, the Prime Minister's leadership, and the timely, aggressive, and close management of the government, along with the efforts of all levels, sectors, localities, and business groups, have led to an increase in the number of people across the country
II.Safety adaptation Covid-19: to
Governments at all levels prioritize public health and well-being through comprehensive guidance They aim to empower individuals and support businesses by removing barriers that hinder both personal and economic growth By fostering a healthy and productive environment, governments contribute to the overall prosperity and vitality of their communities.
The second is to continue working to preserve macroeconomic stability, regulate markets and prices, guarantee the number of goods, and maintain a healthy economic balance According to Ms Huong, monetary and fiscal policies should be implemented with the flexibility to increase the economy's adaptability, resistance, and autonomy while ensuring the development and control of inflation
Thirdly, successful mechanisms, policies, and solutions are still being applied to help people, workers, and companies resist, overcome challenges, stabilize, and resume production
To foster economic development, Vietnam prioritizes robust domestic market growth and sustainable export promotion This strategy entails securing a reliable supply of essential commodities, particularly raw materials and natural resources, without jeopardizing supply chains By ensuring the availability of these resources, Vietnam aims to maintain production capacity, fuel economic growth, and meet domestic and export demands.
Fifth, the COVID-19 epidemic has had a direct impact on the restructuring, recovery, and development of a few significant sectors, fields, and companies (such as those in
Orientation and solutions to develop the economy in the coming time
Many solutions to stimulate the economy
The percentage of COVID-19 patients who were hospitalized and died drastically dropped, almost developing a collective immune system To restore and advance economic growth in 2022 and the years that follow, the Government and the Prime Minister will issue Resolution 01, Resolution 11, and Directive 01 in quick succession depending on
The government also provides a few options to boost the business The 350,000 billion stimulus package has given the development market a boost, encouraging investment bridges and accelerating public investment projects across the country with an emphasis on the North-South highway and Long Thanh Airport
The Government and the Prime Minister stressed the importance of taking care of people while also focusing on issues like tax relief, fee reduction, fee support, and interest rate support Labor creates enabling circumstances for companies to revert to the market doctrine This is what is causing the economic revival.
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