group assignment topic the fluctuation of output and the impact of covid19 on vietnams output

In addition, 34,010 businesses returned to operation, an increase of 28.6% over the previous year, bringing the total number of new and reopened businesses in 2018 to nearly 165 thousand

GROUP ASSIG

GROUP ASSIGMENTMENT

TOPIC: The fluctuation of output and the impact of Covid19 on Vietnam's output

SUBJECT: ECO121

LECTURER:LE THI THE BUU

GROUP NAME: NAM ANH EM SIEU NHAN

CLASS: MK17C01

SEMESTER: SPRING 23

NAM ANH EM SIEU NHAN

Members group: of1 Tran Minh Quy QS170025 –2 Tran Duy Truong – QS170082

3 Tran Thanh Truc QS170168 –4 Pham Thi Ngoc Anh QS170061 –5 Le Nguyen Thuy Hien QS170096 –

TABLE OF CONTENTS

A OVERVIEW OF THE TOPIC 4

I Urgency of the topic 4

1.Output by industry group 5

2.Output by economic activity 6

2.1.Business sector 6

2.2.Foreign Affairs Area 7

2.3.Financial sector 7

3 For per capita income 8

II Output during the pandemic 9

1.For many industry groups 10

1.1.Industrial and construction sector 10

1.2.Service area 10

1.3.Agriculture, forestry and fishery sector 12

2 For economic activities 12

2.1.Business sector 12

2.2.The external area 13

2.3.Financial sector 14

PART 2: Impact of covid 19 on Vietnam's output 14

I An overview of the Covid 19 epidemic and its impact on the economy in general 14

1.A general overview of the Covid-19 epidemic 14

2 Impact of the Covid 19 epidemic on the economy in general 15

2.1 Impact of the Covid-19 epidemic on the world economy 15

2.2 Impact of the Covid-19 epidemic on Vietnam's economy 15

II Comparison of fluctuations before and during the Covid-19 pandemic 16

1 Impact on many industry groups 16

2 Impact on economic activity 17

2.1.Business sector 17

2.2 External affairs 18

2.3.Financial sector 19

3 Impact on per capita income 20

III Comment on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Vietnam's output 21

1 Negative impact 21

2 Positive impact 22

3 Conclusion 23

PART 3: Orientation and solutions to develop the economy in the coming time 23

Economy grows slowly I .23 Safe adaptation to COVID-II 19 24

III Many solutions to stimulate the economy 25

C REFERENCES 25

Urgency of the topic: I

By learning and absorbing the knowledge of the macroeconomics module By looking at the economy from a macro perspective, understanding the movement and economic relationships of a country And in Vietnam in recent years, due to the impact of the epidemic, the economy fluctuated strongly, so group 1 of us quickly and urgently completed the study on the topic of discussing the fluctuation of products The volume and impact of Covid19 on Vietnam's output

II Research Objectives: 1 Overall goal:

General overview of production fluctuations of our country in 4 years 2018-2021 2 Specific goals:

Research on Vietnam's output in 4 years 2018-2019 Impact of Covid 19 on Vietnam's output

III Research object:

Vietnam output in 4 years 2018-2021 Impact of Covid-19 on Vietnam's output IV Scope of research:

1 Content scope:

Research on the impact of covid 19 on Vietnam's output 2 Spatial Range:

Vietnamese territory

3 Time Range: In 4 years 2018-2021

1.Output by industry group:

The GDP for 2018 increased by 7.08%, the highest since 2008 The agriculture, forestry, and fishery sector grew by 3.76%, contributing 8.7% to the growth The industry and construction sector grew by 8.85%, contributing 48.6%, while the service sector grew by 7.03%, contributing 42.7% The agriculture, forestry, and fishery sector had the highest growth between 2012-2018, indicating that industry restructuring has been effective and

product sales and exports are stable Exports are the main driving force behind the region's production In 2019, GDP increased by 7.02%, exceeding the target set by the National Assembly The agriculture, forestry, and fishery sector grew by 2.01%, contributing 4.6% to the growth The industry and construction sector grew by 8.90%, contributing 50.4%, while the service sector grew by 7.3%, contributing 45%.

2 Output by economic activity 2.1 Business sector

In 2018, the country had 131.3 thousand new businesses with a total registered capital of 1,478.1 trillion dong, up 3.5% in number of businesses and 14.1% in registered capital compared to 2017 The average registered capital of a new business was VND 11.3 billion, up 10.2% Including additional registered capital of enterprises changing to increase capital, the total amount of additional registered capital added to the economy this year was 3,886.9 trillion VND In addition, 34,010 businesses returned to operation, an increase of 28.6% over the previous year, bringing the total number of new and reopened businesses in 2018 to nearly 165 thousand Total registered employees of new businesses in 2018 were 1,107.1 thousand people, down 4.7% compared to the previous year The number of businesses temporarily suspending operation was 90,651, an increase of 49.7% over the previous year In 2019, the country had 138.1 thousand new businesses with a total registered capital of 1,730.2 trillion VND and a total number of registered employees of 1,254.4 thousand employees, an increase of 5.2% in number of businesses, up 17.1% in registered capital and 13.3% in number of employees over the previous year The average registered capital of a new business in 2019 was VND 12.5 billion, up 11.2% over the previous year Including additional registered capital of enterprises changing to increase capital, the total amount of additional registered capital into the economy in 2019 was 4,003.2 trillion VND Besides, there were 39.4 thousand businesses returned to operation activities, an increase of 15.9% compared to 2018, bringing the total number of new and reopened businesses in 2019 to 177.5 thousand businesses

2.2 External affairs:

In November 2018, export turnover was 21.7 billion USD, 147 million USD higher than the estimate In December, it was 21 billion USD, down 3.4% compared to the previous month but up 6.5% compared to the same period in 2017 For the whole year of 2018, export turnover of goods was 244.7 billion USD, a 13.8% increase from 2017 The domestic economic sector accounted for 28.3% of total export turnover, while the foreign-invested sector accounted for 71.7% (down 0.6 percentage points from 2017) In 2019, the estimated total import and export turnover of goods was 516.96 billion USD, with the export turnover of goods at 263.45 billion USD, an 8.1% increase from 2018 The trade balance had a surplus of 9.9 billion USD Industrial and mineral products accounted for 50.5% of total export turnover, small industry and handicraft industry accounted for 38.3%, agricultural and forestry products accounted for 7.9%, and aquatic products accounted for 3.3%.

2.3.Financial sector:

As of December 20, 2019, means of payment increased by 12.1% compared to 2018; capital mobilization of credit institutions increased by 12.5% and credit growth of the economy increased by 12.1% Insurance business achieved high growth with an estimated increase of 20% over the same period last year Insurance premium revenue increased by 25%, while non-life insurance increased by 10% In 2019, insurance premium revenue reached VND 160.2 trillion, up 20.3% compared to 2018 On the bond market, there are 509 listed bond codes with a listed value of 1,162 trillion VND, up 3.7% compared to 2018 On the derivatives market, the average trading volume since the beginning of the year has reached 89,266 contracts/session, up 13% compared to 2018 The number of derivative trading accounts reached 89,795 accounts in November 2019, an increase of 3.3% compared to the previous month and an increase of 55.7% compared to 2018

3 For per capita income:

Per capita income in 2018 was estimated at VND 58.5 million, equivalent to USD 2.587, an increase of USD 198 compared to 2017

GDP throughout 2018 increased by 7,08% compared to the previous year, increasing per capita income

The labor productivity of the entire economy at current prices in 2018 is estimated at VND 102 million per worker, equivalent to USD 4,512 / per worker

The average monthly income of workers earning wages in 2019 increased compared to the previous year:

The group “Leaders in industries, levels, and units” was VND 11.4 million per month, up VND 1.7 million compared to the previous year

The group “High Technical Specialists” is VND 9.2 million per month, up VND 1 million compared to the previous year

The “Simple Work” group is VND 4.8 million per month, up VND 717 thousand compared to the previous year

Workers with university qualifications and above were VND 9.3 million per month, up VND 1.06 million compared to the previous year

Primarily skilled labor was VND 7.7 million per month, an increase of VND 1.08 million compared to the previous year

Unfinished primary school employment is $5 million per month Employees who never went to school were $4.2 million a month The economy in general.

Output during the pandemic: II.

GDP in 2020 increased by 2.91%, which is a major success for Vietnam with growth in 2020 among the highest in the world This success demonstrates the correctness in the direction, and execution of economic recovery, disease prevention, and the determination of the entire political system, the Government, the Prime Minister; the efforts of the people, and the business community to effectively implement the goal of "prevention of disease, and economic and social development"

Vietnam’s GDP grew by 2.91% in 2020, reflecting a major success with one of the world’s highest growth rates The achievement demonstrates the effectiveness of Vietnam’s economic recovery and disease prevention measures, as well as the determination of the entire political system, government, Prime Minister, people, and business community in achieving the goal of disease prevention and economic and social development

1.For many industry groups:

1.1 Industrial and construction sector:

In 2020, Vietnam effectively controlled outbreaks of Covid-19 in various sectors The industry sector contributed 1.12 percentage points to the overall value-added growth rate, with a 3.36% growth rate compared to 2019-2018 The manufacturing industry played a crucial role in driving the economy’s growth, contributing 1.25 percentage points with a 5.82% growth rate Meanwhile, electricity production and distribution grew by 3.92%, contributing 0.19 percentage points, and water supply, waste management, and wastewater disposal increased by 5.51% contributing 0.04 percentage points to the overall growth rate 1.2.Service area:

Vietnam managed well with Covid-19 in 2020, enabling high commercial activity and customer service

Retail sales of goods and services rose 6.4% from the previous quarter and 8% from the same period in the previous year, with total revenue of

VND 5.059.8 trillion, up 2.6% from the preceding year (excluding price) However, the growth rate was lower than the 9.5% increase recorded in 2019 International travel and tourism were problematic while domestic travel improved gradually

In the fourth quarter of 2021, commercial activity, domestic transport and international tourists gradually recovered Total retail sales of goods and sales of consumer services in the fourth quarter of 2021 increased by 28.1% compared to the previous quarter, with significant growth in passenger and goods transport However, compared to the same period last year, the figure decreased by 2.8% In 2021, the total retail sales of goods and consumer services revenue was estimated at VND 4.789,5 trillion, down 3.8% compared to the previous year, excluding the price factor down 6.2% (compared with a 3% drop in 2020)

1.3 Agriculture, forestry and fishery sector:

Livestock products and shrimp output in agriculture, forestry, and aquaculture industries showed

significant growth in 2020, surpassing the growth rate of 2019 The forestry sector accounted for a low proportion but still increased by 2.82%, contributing only 0.02 percentage points The fisheries industry had a higher growth rate of 3.08%, contributing

0.29 percentage points to the total added value of the entire landscape, surpassing the growth rate of 2.8% in 2015 and 2016 during the period 2011-2020

2.For economic activities: 2.1.Business sector:

In 2020, despite the Covid-19 pandemic, government and business community efforts led to 134.9 thousand new business registrations with an average registered capital of 16.6 billion VND, an increase of 32.3% The manufacturing industry showed optimism in Q1/2021

However, in 2021, the fourth wave of Covid-19 and lockdowns led to a 10.7% decrease in new business registrations and a 17.8% increase in enterprises withdrawing, mostly small ones with low capital

2.2.The external area:

In 2020, amid the Covid-19 pandemic and global trade breakdown, both exports and imports saw significant efforts Goods exports increased by 5.1% to $543.9 billion, with exports and imports reaching $281.5 billion and $262.4 billion, respectively The commodity trade balance was estimated at $19.1 billion, the highest in five years In 2021, commodity exports are expected to increase by 19% to $336.25 billion, with 35 items achieving export quotas of over $1 billion, accounting for 93.8% of the total export quota

Service exports, however, are predicted to decline to $3.67 billion (down by 51.7%), while service imports are forecast to rise to $19.41 billion (up by 8.5%) compared to 2020 2.3.Financial area:

In 2020, total social investment capital in Vietnam increased by 5.7% compared to 2019, reaching VND 2.164.5 trillion, equivalent to 34.4% of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2020, up 7.5% from the same period of the previous year This growth rate was the lowest in the 2011-2020 period due to Covid-19 However, the rate of capital increase implemented from the State budget reached its highest level in this period, accounting for 33.7% of total capital and an increase of 14.5% over the previous year In terms of investment capital structure, the State area accounted for 33.7%, the non-State area accounted for 44.9%, and the foreign direct investment area accounted for 21.4%

PART 2: Impact of covid 19 on Vietnam's output:

I An overview of the Covid 19 epidemic and its impact on the economy in general: 1 A general overview of the Covid-19 epidemic:

The COVID-19 pandemic is an infectious disease pandemic caused by a virus CoV-2 was discovered in December 2019 in Wuhan, China Country On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) issued a statement called "COVID-19" a "Global Pandemic" The first infection was recorded in Vietnam on January 23, 2020 (one of the first countries first outside mainland China to record a case of COVID-19)

However, due to the timely response of the Vietnamese Government, the COVID-19 epidemic relatively well controlled As a result, Vietnam has significantly reduced the economic losses as well as

human losses, especially when compared with neighboring countries in the same situation Total number of new COVID-19 cases and cases in Vietnam year 2020

2.Impact of the Covid-19 epidemic on the economy in general: 2.1.Impact of the Cov -19 epidemic on the world economy: id

The COVID-19 pandemic is a powerful health shock, affecting all aspects of the world economy Global growth of many countries and regions is negative; global trade and investment declined; workers lost their jobs, unemployment rate business increased In the midst of difficulties brought about by the epidemic, there are also opportunities appearing, especially online socio economic activities such as online sales, online learning, and online -meetings COVID-19 is accelerating the application process and launching new products from the fourth industrial revolution

2.2 Impact of the Covid-19 epidemic on Vietnam's economy:

The Covid-19 pandemic has taken place from the end of 2019 to the present, causing a comprehensive impact, And spreading to all countries in the world is still complicated The global economy fell into a serious recession, and Vietnam's economy was also greatly affected by the Covid-19 pandemic The COVID-19 outbreak has brought unprecedented challenges that are expected to have significant impacts on the development of Vietnam's economy this year The Covid-19 pandemic is also the most serious economic challenge, even more, profound than life The Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 COVID-19 is expected to depress potential growth in the region Although the COVID-19 shock causes current output to fall below potential output, it still has likely to reduce the growth rate of energy output in the region

On May 9, 2021, the Covid-19 epidemic negatively affected the Vietnamese economy In particular, the epidemic that has lasted from July until now in the Southeast provinces, the Mekong Delta, and Hanoi must implement social distancing under Directive 16 for a long time, which has affected the growth results According to that, the GDP in the third quarter of 2021 had the deepest decrease since the quarterly GDP was calculated and announced in Vietnam