topic explain and analyze the import export and trade balance in vietnam from 2020 to the 3rd quater of 2022

Recent trends show that the number of orders transferred from China to Vietnam has increasedsignificantly.For example, the Pearl River Delta, long known as one of the important factory c

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING

FPT UNIVERSITY

-REPORT

TOPIC: EXPLAIN AND ANALYZE THE IMPORT, EXPORT, AND TRADE BALANCE IN VIETNAM FROM 2020 TO THE 3RD QUATER

OF 2022

Lecturers: Nguyen Thi Bich Thuong

Class: IB17B

Quy Nhon, , 2022

List of students

Table of content

II Summary of exports, imports, and trade balance from 2020 to the third quarter of 2022 4-5

III Import in VietNam from 2020 to the third quarter of 2022 5

1 Analysis of the import situation in Viet Nam from 2020 to the third quarter of 2020 5-6

2 Six items imported over 10 billion USD……… 6

IV Export in VietNam from 2020 to the third quarter of 2022 6-9

1 Analysis of the export situation in Viet Nam from 2020 to the third quarter of 2020 9

2 Remaining problems, and difficulties 9-10 3.The solution to achieve the target of import and export for the whole year 10

V Trade Balance in VietNam from 2020 to the third quarter of 2022 10

1 Chart 10

2 Outline of the trade balance from 2020 to the third quarter of 2022 11-12

3 Some policies have developed the trade balance from 2020 to the third quarter of 2022 12-13

4 The effect of exchange rate on the balance of trade 13-14

5 Other factors affecting the trade balance from 2020 to the third quarter of 2022 14

VI Conclusion 14

VII List of references 14-15

As Vietnam has become a global manufacturing hub, Vietnam has emerged as an effective relocation destination, also known as the China+1 strategy

Optimistic growth forecasts are set for operations the country's import and export business as the global economy recovers

With rising costs, China is no longer a destination for many businesses and Vietnam has become a serious competitor Recent trends show that the number of orders transferred from China to Vietnam has increased significantly

For example, the Pearl River Delta, long known as one of the important factory centers for world manufacturers (especially those from Hong Kong), is now has become too expensive for many companies to stay in the region

Over the past few years, more and more businesses have moved operations from China to Vietnam in an attempt to escape rising costs and an increasingly complex regulatory environment

With the recent trade war between China and the US, along with Vietnam's recent free trade agreements such

as RCEP, EVFTA, and UKVFTA, the country is gradually becoming more open to trade and investment International

Strategically located for foreign companies with operations throughout Southeast Asia, Vietnam is an ideal export hub to access other ASEAN markets

These changes have strongly affected the export, import, and trade balance of Vietnam in recent years We will analyze more specifically the export, import, and trade balance values of Vietnam through the years 2020,

2021, and the third quarter of 2022

II Summary of exports, imports, and trade balance from 2020 to the third quarter of 2022

Year Quarter Export (Billion

USD)

Import (Billion USD)

Trade balance (Billion USD)

2021 1 78.47 75.58 2.89

III Import in VietNam from 2020 to the third quarter of 2022

1 Analysis of the export situation in Viet Nam from 2020 to the third quarter of 2022

Import turnover in 2020 reached US$262.4 billion, up 3.6% compared to 2019 Imports focus mainly on goods necessary for production and export, including machinery, equipment, and raw materials raw materials for production and export Import turnover of this group of goods reached 245.6 billion USD, up 4.1% compared

to 2019, accounting for 93.6% of the total import turnover, of which the import of machinery and equipment, household appliances, equipment tools, means of transport, and spare parts increased sharply by 16.3% This proves that the economy is having a strong recovery in production while imports for consumption have decreased significantly, accounting for only 6.4%, down 0.5 percentage points compared to 2019

Import turnover of goods in 2021 reached USD 332.23 billion, up 26.5% over the previous year, of which the domestic economic sector reached USD 114.03 billion, up 21.8%; the foreign-invested sector reached $218.21 billion, up 29.1% In 2021, there are 47 imported items worth over 1 billion USD, accounting for 94.1% of total import turnover

In the third quarter of 2022, import turnover was estimated at $90.7 billion, up 8.1% over the same period last year and down 7.1% compared to the second quarter of 2022

There were 42 imported items with a value of over 1 billion USD, accounting for 92.3% of the total import turnover (with 4 export items over 10 billion USD, accounting for 45.5%)

In the first nine months of 2022, capital goods accounted for 93.9%, up 0.1 percentage point over the same period last year, of which machinery, equipment, tools, and spare parts accounted for 44.6%, down 1.3 percentage points; raw materials, fuel, and materials accounted for 49.2%, up 1.4 percentage points The group

of consumer products accounted for 6.1%, down 0.1 percentage points

Regarding imports, the turnover is estimated at 89 billion USD in the fourth quarter, up 16% over the same period last year In general, in 2021, the import turnover of goods reached 332.25 billion USD, up 26.5% over the previous year Nearly 50 imported items with a value of over 1 billion USD, contributing 94% of Vietnam's total import turnover Particularly, 6 items imported over 10 billion USD account for about 54% of the total import value

Source: https://forbes.vn/thuong-mai-viet-nam-dat-6685-ti-usd-trong-nam-2021

IV Export in VietNam from 2020 to the quarter of 2022

1 Analysis of the export situation in Viet Nam from 2020 to the third quarter of 2020

Merchandise export turnover in 2020 was estimated at 281.5 billion USD, up 6.5% compared to 2019, of which the domestic economic sector reached 78.2 billion USD, down 1.1%, accounting for 27 8% of total export turnover; the foreign-invested sector (including crude oil) reached 203.3 billion USD, up 9.7%, accounting for 72.2% of total export turnover

In 2020, there are 31 items with an export turnover of over 1 billion USD, of which, 24 items have an export turnover of over 2 billion USD, 9 items have an export turnover of over 5 billion USD and 6 items have over 5 billion USD in turnover 10 billion USD The items that contributed the most to the growth of export turnover

in 2020 were phones and components with the largest export value of 50.9 billion USD, accounting for 18.1%

of total export turnover, down 1% compared to the previous year with the previous year; electronics, computers, and components reached 44.7 billion USD, up 24.4%

In 2021, Vietnam's total export turnover will reach 336.31 billion USD, up 19% compared to 2020 (export value in 2020 is 281.441 billion USD) In which, there are 8 export items of over 10 billion USD such as phones of all kinds and components, computers, electronic products & components; other machinery, equipment, tools, and spare parts; textiles; footwear; wood and wood products, iron and steel of all kinds; means of transport and spare parts and 35 export products with a turnover of over 1 billion USD (accounting for nearly 94% of total export turnover) In which the first quarter, it increased by 22% compared to the same period last year and, in the second quarter, exports increased goods and services increased by 29.81% compared to the second quarter of 2020, and the third quarter increased by 2.51% compared to 2020 Not only achieving an impressive export value, but Vietnam also maintained major markets, maintaining a positive growth rate Specifically, the US is Vietnam's largest export market, with a turnover of 95.6 billion USD, up 24.1% over the previous year; China reached 55.9 billion USD, up 14.3%…

The chart shows the export value of some major commodity groups in 10 months of 2021 compared

to 10 months of 2020

In the three quarters of 2022, Vietnam's export value reached 312.8 billion USD, up 17.2%, equivalent to 41.46 billion USD increase over the same period last year In which, 8 groups of products contributed the largest, respectively: machinery, equipment, tools, and spare parts, increased by 7.95 billion USD; textiles and garments increased by 5.57 billion USD; computers, electronic products, and components increased by 5.2 billion USD; footwear of all kinds increased by 4.86 billion USD; phones and components increased by 4.07 billion USD; seafood increased by 2.31 billion USD; cameras, camcorders, and components increased by 1.26 billion USD; wood and wood products increased by 1.14 billion USD Especially in the third quarter of 2022, export turnover was estimated at 96.5 billion USD, up 17.2% over the same period last year and in the first quarter of 2022 but down 0.5% compared to the second quarter of 2022

2 Remaining problems, difficulties

- Export is still highly dependent on FDI enterprises, export turnover of FDI enterprises (including crude oil) is estimated at 246.7, up 20.7%, accounting for 74% of total export turnover Meanwhile, the export turnover of domestic enterprises is estimated at about 88.5 billion USD, up 13.2%, lower than the overall export growth of the whole country (18.6%) and accounting for only 26% Export turnover (same period in 2020 accounted for 27.7%)

- The export volume of many agricultural products decreased (coffee, tea, pepper, rice) due to market difficulties The level of market diversification of some agricultural and aquatic products is not high Exported agricultural and aquatic products still face many difficulties in accessing markets with high requirements for quality and food safety With agricultural products, we have done a good job of negotiating for the importing country to cut import taxes for Vietnamese exports (through FTAs); However, the negotiation to be recognized for quality management, food safety management, and animal and plant quarantine is still limited Therefore, although many products have been reduced to 0% by foreign countries, some agricultural products in Vietnam are still not allowed to be imported into some markets

- The competitive advantage of Vietnam's exports is still mainly based on price, not on value Therefore, our export development is not really sustainable, when goods on the market fluctuate, it will affect the overall export turnover

- Vietnam's exports through unofficial channels have not been improved, there are many times when there is a change in import-export policy on your side, causing congestion at the border gate for a long time, and affecting border trade activities trade and huge economic losses

3 Solution to achieve the target of import and export for the whole year

To achieve the target of import and export for the whole year, the Ministry of Industry and Trade is and continues to implement many solutions that the Ministry has focused on in the past time to support businesses and promote exports such as:

Firstly, continue to closely monitor the epidemic situation and the exchange of goods between countries to advise the Government on management solutions to deal with adverse factors;

Second, focus on the implementation of free trade agreements in general, especially new-generation FTAs such

as CPTPP, EVFTA, and UKVFTA The goal is not only to help businesses understand the contents of CPTPP and EVFTA commitments but also to effectively apply and promote the Agreement's incentives, thereby making the most of opportunities and minimizing challenges arising out of these Agreements;

Third, continue to implement Resolution No 63/NQ-CP dated June 29, 2021, on key tasks and solutions to promote economic growth, disbursement of public investment, and sustainable exports the last months of 2021 and the beginning of 2022;

Fourth, continue to innovate, organize trade promotion programs, connect supply and demand both at home and abroad on the online environment and on new platforms;

Fifth, promote the development of logistics services, reduce the costs of exploiting transport infrastructure, logistics costs in import and export activities and domestic goods circulation, focusing on ensuring the progress of circulation goods imported and exported at seaports and border gates;

Sixth, continue to promote the simplification of administrative procedures In particular, focus on implementing administrative procedures in the field of import and export under the National Single Window, ASEAN Single Window, etc to create favorable conditions for the Association and enterprises to participate in import and export activities

V Trade Balance in VietNam from 2020 to the quarter of 2022

1 Chart

Q1.20 Q2.20 Q3.20 Q4.20 Q1.21 Q2.21 Q3.21 Q4.21 Q1.22 Q2.22 Q3.22

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

3.92

2.14

10.76

3.17 2.89

-3.8 0.77 7.24

0.81 0.32

6.52

Balance of trade from 2 020 to the third quarte r of 2 022

Balance of trade

2 Outline of the trade balance from 2020 to the third quarter of 2022

Dr Le Quoc Phuong, former Deputy Director of the Center for Industry and Trade Information (Ministry of Industry and Trade) analyzed: “From 1986 to 2011, Vietnam was a chronic trade deficit country Even in the period 2007-2011, Vietnam's trade deficit exceeded 10 billion USD/year Notably, in 2008, Vietnam had a record trade deficit of nearly 20 billion USD After that, Vietnam switched to a continuous trade surplus from

2012 (except for 2015) In particular, Vietnam's trade surplus next year will increase higher than the previous year, far exceeding the strategic target set out to balance the trade balance by 2020 and strive for a trade surplus from 2021”

According to the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, 2020 is also the last year of implementing the 5-year socio-economic development plan 2016-2020, our country is making efforts to fulfill the goals set out in the Plan The appearance of the Covid-19 epidemic has caused negative effects on economic activities, in which h import and export of goods have been seriously affected These fluctuations and difficulties have made countries tend to use domestic products instead of imported products when implementing measures to close borders to prevent epidemics Therefore, many countries have used trade protection measures and technical barriers to strengthen the protection of domestic products, especially agricultural and aquatic products However, with the skillful, sober, and very resolute management of the Government with the goal of "both disease prevention and socio-economic development", Vietnam's import and export activities have stood firm

in the disruption of international trade globally, maintaining its growth momentum and creating important traction for the whole economy In the context of the world economy having many risks and uncertainties, a decline in global trade, and a decrease in exports from countries in the region compared to the previous year, Vietnam still maintained a viable export growth rate The trade balance in 2020 is estimated to have a trade surplus of 19.1 billion USD From 2016 up to now, the trade balance of import and export of goods has been continuously in surplus with the trade surplus of the following year higher than the previous year In 2016, our country's trade surplus of goods reached 1.6 billion USD; in 2017 reached 1.9 billion USD; in 2018 increased

to 6.5 billion USD; in 2019 reached 10.9 billion USD and in 2020 it is estimated to reach 19.1 billion USD