An analysis of wood pellets export from vietnam to eu in the context of russia ukraine war

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION FOREIGN TRADE AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY MASTER THESIS AN ANALYSIS OF WOOD VIETNAM PELLETS EXPORT FROM TO EU IN THE CONTEXT OF RUSSIA- UKRAINE WAR Specialization: International Trade Policy and Law LE MAI HUONG Hanoi - 2023 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION FOREIGN TRADE AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY MASTER THESIS AN ANALYSIS OF WOOD VIETNAM PELLETS EXPORT FROM TO EU IN THE CONTEXT OF RUSSIA- UKRAINE WAR Major: International Economics Specialization: International Trade Policy and Law Code: 8310106 Fullname: Le Mai Huong Supervisor: Dr Pham Huong Giang Hanoi - 2023 i STATEMENT OF ORIGINAL AUTHORSHIP I solemnly declare: The data and research evaluations presented in this thesis have not been utilized in any other work and are entirely truthful The information cited in this research has been sourced from the reference list, and acknowledgments have been expressed for any assistance provided in completing this thesis Hanoi, 08 September 2023 Thesis author Le Mai Huong ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The research thesis on "An analysis of wood pellets export from Vietnam to EU in the context of Russia-Ukraine war" is the result of my personal exploration and the encouragement, support, and guidance of my professors I would like to express my sincere gratitude to Dr Pham Huong Giang for her dedicated guidance and support throughout the research, implementation, and completion of this thesis I would like to thank my family and the institutions I am affiliated with for providing the necessary resources and assistance during the entire process of conducting this research They have also been a great source of encouragement and support in my journey to complete this study iii TABLE OF CONTENT STATEMENT OF ORIGINAL AUTHORSHIP ACKNOWLEDGEMENT LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS LIST OF TABLES LIST OF FIGURES ABSTRACT INTRODUCTION CHAPTER 1: EXPORTATION POTENTIAL THE OF THEORETICAL WOOD IMPACTS PELLETS OF FRAMEWORK AND AN RUSSIA-UKRAINE OVERVIEW WAR ON ON OF THE THE THE EU’S IMPORTATION LL Export 1.1.1 Definition 1.1.2 Roles of export 1.2 Overview of wood pellets 1.2.1 Definition 1.2.3 Applications of wood pellets 1.3 Overview of European Union 1.3.1 General introduction to the EU 1.3.2 International trade policy of EU 1.3.3 EU wood pellets market 1.3.4 Trade relation between EU and Vietnam 1.3.5 EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) 1.4 Overview of Russia-Ukraine war 1.4.1, The cause of Russia-Ukraine war 1.4.2 Progress of the Russia-Ukraine war 1.4.3 Effects of Russia-Ukraine war on international trade SUMMARY OF CHAPTER CHAPTER 2: ANALYZING TO EU IN THE CONTEXT WOOD PELLETS EXPORT FROM VIETNAM OF RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR 2.1, The current situation of wood pellets exports in Vietnam (2018-2022) 35 iv 2.1.1 Wood pellets value structure 2.1.2 Export volume and value of wood pellets 2.1.3 Wood pellets exporting and manufacturing enterprises in Vietnam 39 2.2 The current situation of wood pellets exports from Vietnam to Europe in the context of Russia-Ukraine war 42 2.3 Assessment the situation of exporting wood pellets from Vietnam to the EU in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war 2.4 Opportunities of exporting wood pellets from Vietnam to the EU in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war 49 2.4.1 Expanding market share in the European market and contributing to the growth of Vietnam's export turnover 2.4.2, Attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) 2.4.3 Improving the quality of wood pellet 2.5 Challenges of exporting wood pellets from Vietnam to the EU in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war 2.5.1 Challenges with government agencies 2.5.2 Challenges for enterprises CHAPTER 3: POLICY IMPLICATIONS AND SOLUTIONS TO PROMOTE EXPORT VIETNAM’S WOOD PELLETS TO EU IN THE CONTEXT OF RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR 58 3.1 Forecasting prospect of exporting wood pellets from Vietnam to EU in the context of Russia-Ukraine war 58 3.2 Polit implications to promote Vietnam’s wood pellets exports to the EU in the context of Russia-Ukraine war 59 3.3 Solutions for enterprises to promote exports of wood pellets to the EU in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war 65 SUMMARY OF CHAPTER CONCLUSION REFERENCES v LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS Abbreviation Interpretation EVFTA European Union-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement FTA Free Trade Agreement EU European Union GSP Generalized System of Preferences SPS Technical Barriers to Trade TBT Technical Barriers to Trade CCT ‘Common Customs Tariff GDP Gross Domestic Product HS Harmonized System FSC Forest Stewardship Council NATO The North Atlantic Treaty Organization WTO World Trade Organization UN The United Nations VIFOREST Vietnam Timber and Forest Product Association MIT Ministry of Industry and Trade MT Metric ton vi LIST OF TABLES Table 1.3: Main Suppliers of Wood Pellets to EU27 (1,000 MT) 19 Table 1.4: Top 10 EU members in export value to Vietnam (USD) 20 Table 1.5: Top 10 EU members in import value to Vietnam (USD) 21 Table 2.1: Number of enterprises exporting wood pellets by size from 2018-20240 Table 2.2: Vietnam's main tablet export markets in 2022 (compare to 202]) 43 vii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1: Wood pellets 22222222222.2 re Figure 1.2: European wood pellet consumption for heat in 2021 (tonnes,%4) 18 Figure 1.3: NATO members in Europe 222-22222222212-22 -iee 224 Figure 1.4: EU trade with Russian 2021-2022 (€ billion) -2- 31 Figure 1.5: Most traded goods between EU and Russia, 2022 (€ billion) 31 Figure 1.6: Dependency on wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine from 2018-2021 Figure 2.1: Export tumover of wood pellets compared to the whole industry of wood and wood products from 2018-2022 (million USD), 2-2 222 35 Figure 2.2: Structure of export value of wood and some wood products 2021 (%).36 Figure 2.3: Structure of export value of wood and some wood products 2022 (%).36 Figure 2.4: Export quantity and value of wood pellets in Vietnam from 2013 to 2022 Figure 2.5: Number of wood pellets exporting enterprises in Vietnam from 20182022 2.39 Figure 2.6: Export quantity of wood pellets to different markets in Vietnam from 2018 to 2022 (tonnes) -222212222222.21 re 42 Figure 27: Average export price of tablets by month from 01/2021 - 10/2022 (USD/tonne, FOB) -2-22222222222222.7 ke viii ABSTRACT Wood pellets are becoming one of the sustainable energy sources gradually replacing fossil fuels in the EU market With the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict, the global energy supply is increasingly disrupted, affecting both the global energy supply and the EU in particular However, this situation opens up opportunities for Vietnam to export wood pellets to this demanding market The thesis “An analysis of wood pellets export from Vietnam to EU in the context of Russia-Ukraine war” introduces general theories on exports and evaluation criteria used in the research Next, the author provides an overview of wood pellets, followed by an explanation of the regulations related to wood pellets exports to the EU under the framework of the EVFTA Furthermore, the author analyzes the current situation of wood pellets imports and consumption in EU countries, including market scale, characteristics, and supply sources Finally, the author examines the context of the Russia-Ukraine war and its impacts on global trade From the synthesized theoretical framework, the author analyze the following key contents: Firstly, an overview analysis of Vietnam's wood pellets exports during the period of 2018-2022 Secondly, an analysis of Vietnam's wood pellets exports to the EU during the period of 2018-2022, based on export turnover indicators, export structure, export markets, and Vietnam's competitive capacity in the wood pellet sector in the EU region Thirdly, based on the analyzed situation combined with the theoretical basis in the research field, the author evaluates the opportunities and challenges for Vietnam in exporting wood pellets to the EU in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war The opportunities may include the removal of trade barriers, trade liberalization, etc., while the challenges may involve technical standards related to product quality assurance, food safety and hygiene, rules of origin, and intense competition from competitors After assessing the opportunities and challenges in Chapter 2, the author proposes several solutions to promote Vietnam's wood pellets exports to the EU in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war 62 Before businesses directly explore market development opportunities, relevant agencies themselves need to take the lead, conduct research, and create favorable mechanisms to facilitate export activities to the EU region The MIT agencies should focus on creating favorable conditions to help businesses access information sources more easily The information provided should be comprehensive, accurate, timely, and updated on all factors that could affect business decisions such as political stability, domestic trade policies, importexport support mechanisms, changes in consumer preferences, market share and competition in the area, risks related to protective and trade defense measures, early warnings of fraud signs, payment mechanisms, etc Specifically, the information should cover the following aspects: Information channels need to be updated regularly in term of the market and regularly report on changes such as political, economic, social, financial, customs, security, etc that may affect bilateral trade activities With geographical, time zone, and language differences, domestic businesses exporting wood pellets still face certain challenges in accessing the market and handling incidents and disputes that arise during export operations (fraud risks, payment procedures, customs declarations, enterprise appraisal, market information, etc.) In this context, the role of administrative agencies representing Vietnam in the EU region is essential in providing necessary and prompt assistance to businesses, thereby ensuring their interests and minimizing risks for wood pellets exporters to the EU region Relevant domestic functional agencies should proactively _ gather information, synthesize and analyze the market situation and prospects, and provide appropriate recommendations for the Vietnamese wood pellets industry It is necessary to strengthen direct and indirect communication efforts to enable businesses to access important, complete, accurate, and up-to-date information Communication methods should be diversified, such as publishing articles in the media, organizing specialized events, workshops, roundtable discussions, trade forums, distributing publications and brochures, and disseminating information through industry information groups, etc 63 - Promote trade promotion activities Trade promotion is an activity that aims to stimulate and explore chances for purchasing and more dynamic, assists firms in conditions for selling goods and services, to make the selling process easier and and to reach prospective markets both locally and globally This lowering costs and increasing revenues, thus providing favorable their successful market existence and development with their existing resources According to Bộ Công thương (2022), within the framework of the National Trade Promotion Program, the Ministry allocates an average of 20% of the total budget of the Program for trade promotion activities in the EU market annually However, the effectiveness has not been as high as expected The Trade Promotion Agency needs to directly support businesses participating or guide associations in the compressed wood product industry to select reputable and large trade fairs, exhibitions, and events specialized in trade promotion in the European market From there, a national trade promotion plan should be developed, and businesses should be organized to participate Regarding participation in prestigious and leading trade fairs in the EU every year, the MIT should actively assist businesses in achieving immediate results at events such as international trade fairs specialized in wood and wood processing products Aside from commercial promotion activities for market development, the Trade Promotion Agency must also coordinate with domestic and international agencies and organizations, as well as the Vietnamese mission in the EU, to implement programs for brand building and promotion, thereby increasing the competitive capacity of Vietnamese businesses and products in the international market Simultaneously, relevant authorized agencies should prioritize strengthening cooperation with trade missions, embassies, and trade promotion organizations in EU countries such as France, Italy, and Belgium in order to 64 connect information and exchange demand for compressed wood exports and imports from businesses on all sides The Trade Promotion Agency should work closely with Vietnamese Trade Missions throughout Europe to offer and promote promising goods and respectable Vietnamese firms to local partners These events will promote and drive both business groups to establish market access strategies and increase enterprises’ import-export markets As a consequence, they will contribute to the long-term promotion of two-way trade and investment between Vietnam and EU nations The necessary functional agency must also help firms create and develop their brands through communication campaigns and image promotion They should also provide training and coaching, as well as improve product design and formatting capabilities The MIT should seize this opportunity to put in place measures to promote consumption and build the market for this product Negotiating market access, linking to increase consumption, trade promotion, market information distribution, publicity, and awareness campaigns are examples of such tactics - Improve the quality of human resources To develop a high-quality workforce and integrate internationally, the government should prioritize investments in key research centers and technology transfer to carry out research tasks, postgraduate training, and academic exchange with international experts in science and technology development To improve the quality of human resource training in enterprises and engineers in forestry universities toward the application of high technology and Industry 4.0 in wood processing and forestry exports in general and compressed wood products in particular, training organizations should provide modem technology management education and update new technologies for engineers and workers in wood processing and forestry enterprises 65 To deal with labor concerns in the wood industry, The Ministry of Labour Invalids and Social Affairs and The Ministry of Education and Training should establish and implement a national program for developing human resources for the forestry processing sector, as well as a national raw material supply system, with the active participation of associations and other relevant parties It is critical to build a harmonic and coherent mix of human resource groups from various training levels: universities, vocational schools, and technical personnel who are aligned with corporate technology innovation Furthermore, focus should be given to employing teaching personnel that excel in practical production, business, and management to ensure that knowledge is integrated with practical skills and realworld experience It is vital to entice groups and enterprises to participate in training and improving workforce quality, particularly for high-quality human resources in the wood processing industry Training design teams, fostering the growth of research institutions and product design, hosting design awards, and gathering and growing a competent and creative design workforce from both domestic and foreign sources should all be prioritized This will propel the rapid and effective growth of wood processing and forestry businesses 3.3 Solutions for enterprises to promote exports of wood pellets to the EU in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war - Develop sustainable plantation timber material areas to meet quality standards The COVID-19 epidemic, as well as current tensions between Russia and Ukraine, have produced considerable swings in the price of imported lumber This emphasizes the need of producing and growing domestic supplies of lumber, particularly massive, high-quality, and sustainable wood Timber for wood processing is mostly derived from planted forests, which are taken from around 3.69 million hectares of production forests, accounting for 66 approximately 53% of total supply The remainder of the supply is derived from dispersed trees and liquidated rubber farms Domestic wood supplies satisfy roughly 80% of raw material requirements However, over 70% of the supply is made up of small-sized timber, which is utilized to make wood chips, fake boards, and compressed wood pellets According to Decision No 1088/QD-BNN-KTHT (2022), by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development approving the pilot project for establishing a standardized agricultural and forestry raw material region to serve domestic consumption and export from 2022 to 2025, businesses need to collaborate with relevant agencies and forest-growing households to develop intensive cultivation of large-sized timber and transform forests from small-sized timber to meet processing and export standards Specifically: Production companies and people should concentrate their efforts on completing the planned forest planting areas To maintain healthy growth, the forestry industry should frequently appoint authorities to help local inhabitants in caring for and intercropping freshly planted forest areas In addition to caring for newly planted trees, monitoring and addressing pests and diseases in 3- to 4-yearold forest areas, regularly controlling grass growth, pruning unwanted trees and vines, and ensuring proper air circulation for healthy tree growth while limiting harmful pests and diseases should all be priorities Furthermore, to secure a legitimate and consistent supply of raw materials, firms should engage with state authorities and forest-growing households to develop domestically supplied timber from certified FSC plantations This will boost compressed wood product exports to countries such as the United States, Europe, and Japan Stronger collaboration within the country between enterprises and forestgrowing households is critical to ensuring that farmers and forest-growing households can preserve trees for longer periods of time, allowing them to grow larger and offer a sustainable source of raw materials for wood processing 67 - Enhancing the application of science and technology to improve the quality of products Science and technology play a crucial role in activities aimed at enhancing the value chain of forestry production, contributing to the development ofa highly skilled workforce in terms of knowledge and practical experience to meet the requirements of the forestry sector and rural development Assessing the current situation of science and technology activities in the forestry sector in recent years, the Deputy Director-General of the Forestry General Department stated that the forestry sector has experienced significant development, with the export turnover of wood products growing rapidly It has been recognized as a specialized economic-technical sector, linking the entire value chain of forestry products, from management, protection, and development to forest use, processing, and timber trade Unlike other fields of agriculture, forestry results For instance, forest planting also takes can be harvested Therefore, the application of will accelerate the process of obtaining positive requires a long time to verify the around years before teak trees advanced science and technology results sooner Firstly, identifying the variety is the primary factor determining the yield and quality of crops Our province has paid attention to implementing scientific and technological tasks related to researching and applying advanced techniques in the development of forestry crop varieties Specifically, there has been a gradual improvement in the production capacity of plant varieties through tissue culture technology for high-yield and high-quality forestry crops This aims to serve the economic afforestation and large-scale timber production to prepare the best source of raw materials not only for compressed wood products but also for the entire timber industry Following that, enterprises in the wood pellets sector must aggressively employ information technology ¡in production management, _ business administration, and human management during the production and export phases 68 This will progressively improve their products’ competitiveness in the export market However, technical innovation and improved raw material use efficiency are critical elements that directly lead to increased production Technological innovation involves upgrading outmoded technologies that squander raw materials, as well as improving the way technology management is implemented in industries To increase the efficiency of the wood sector, it is necessary to reduce the use of low-quality labor in manufacturing and replace it with highquality labor It also entails minimizing the number of direct laborers and substituting technology and machines for them - Compliance with regulations on traceability of origin and strict control of the production process The EU market places a high value on traceability concerns As a result, rigorous adherence to origin and source requirements is a strategic option for firms to begin capitalizing on the benefits that the EVFTA (EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement) presents to the Vietnamese wood compression sector Regulations in the EU are continuously updated and changed As a result, manufacturers and enterprises exporting products to the EU must pay close attention to monitoring and updating the appropriate EU legal papers, as well as reviewing notifications of changes in EU rules on a regular basis The ePing service allows businesses to review notifications of changes in EU rules UN, WTO, and International Trade Center (ITC) collaborated on ePing It is an online tool that enables interested parties to quickly view and discuss WTO notifications on SPS and TBT that may affect the products and markets they are interested in As a result, firms must sign up for ePing in order to get daily or weekly email alerts on SPS or TBT notifications relating to items entering the EU market The National Information Portal on SPS and TBT in Vietnam is a crucial route that enterprises must understand However, this gateway must be updated with more detailed information 69 - Promote market research and strengthen trade promotion activities In the context of green trade becoming increasingly popular and gradually legalized in Vietnam's major export markets, trade promotion activities need to adapt to the new circumstances Currently, the majority of Vietnamese export businesses are small and medium-sized enterprises with limited financial capacity, and they are not accustomed to paying for consulting services Understanding the market and consumer preferences is one of the important factors to successfully export quality products that meet the needs of customers In addition to the support provided by the government in terms of information provision, Vietnamese wood pellets businesses also need to proactively seek market information, understand the EU's regulations and policies, and the commitments related to the EVFTA in order to effectively capitalize on the advantages when exporting to the EU In addition to complying with the mandatory regulations and standards of the EU, Vietnamese wood pellets businesses also need to meet the specific requirements of importers, as well as necessary international standards and certifications Following a thorough grasp of market information, enterprises should step up their trade promotion efforts in order to boost the amount of wood compression products sent to the EU market To begin, Vietnamese companies must progressively access the EU market's distribution systems Long term, Vietnamese wood compression firms should create their own distribution infrastructure in order to achieve the best efficiency in exporting wood compression goods to the EU However, this is a long-term strategy because most organizations today lack the financial capability and have limited time As a result, enterprises may use the option of collaborating with the Vietnamese population in the EU to engage in the manufacture, processing, and export of wood compression goods that are in demand in the EU market in the short term To start a joint venture, both parties invest funds Vietnam will be in charge of manufacturing due to its advantages in manpower, raw resources, and industries With market sensitivity and existing distribution channels, the foreign side will be responsible for finding avenues for 70 products consumption Using this strategy, the manufactured items will have easier access to distribution channels in the EU market while fulfilling the preferences of that country's customers Large Vietnamese wood compression export enterprises with consistent supply sources can create different relationships with trading companies or significant distributors in the EU, allowing them to immediately join the market's primary distribution channels, such as supermarkets and retail stores Given the fast increase of direct trade techniques, many firms are turning to e-commerce to export their products When entering the EU wood compression market, wood pellets export enterprises must pay attention to and investigate this route 71 SUMMARY OF CHAPTER In Chapter 3, the author focuses on providing insights into the export of compressed wood to the EU market in the future context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict Based on that, the author presents solutions to promote the export of compressed wood to the EU market in the future context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict From a macro perspective, the government needs to engage in the following activities to promote exports: organizing the production of wood pellets according to the value chain to meet the quality requirements of wood pellets, implementing legal changes, guidelines, and assistance programs to help wood pellets producers adhere to EU technical requirements and rules of origin, providing accurate, complete, and timely market information to businesses, promote trade promotion activities, improve quality of human resources At the micro level, businesses also need to take the following steps: develop sustainable plantation timber material areas to meet quality standards, enhancing the application of science and technology to improve the quality of products, compliance with regulations on traceability of origin and strict control of the production process, promote market research and strengthen trade promotion activities 72 CONCLUSION The Russia-Ukraine conflict has had a significant impact on the global economy, particularly the energy supply chain of EU countries, with Vietnam also being affected negatively However, this conflict has also opened up an opportunity for Vietnam to enter the world's largest compressed wood market In addition, despite the fact that the trade relationship between Vietnam and the EU has been built for over 30 years, the EU, under the new-generation agreement EVFTA, places greater emphasis and requirements on product quality Therefore, the compressed wood manufacturing and exporting businesses are taking advantage of this opportunity while considering it a strong motivation to continuously enhance the position of Vietnam's wood pellets in the international market Through the thesis research process, the following tasks have been accomplished: Firstly, the thesis has analyzed the export situation of compressed wood from Vietnam to the EU in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war, thereby identifying the opportunities and challenges that Vietnam must face Alongside the opportunities to access large markets, attract FDI and technology transfer to improve product quality, Vietnam also has to deal with challenges related to raw materials, non-tariff barriers regarding rules of origin, FSC certification, TBT requirements, and the lack of government support in accessing accurate information and promoting trade Secondly, based on the analysis of the current situation, an evaluation of the potential of the EU wood pellets market in the coming time has been made, and there is still a lot of room for major exporting countries like Vietnam To exploit and take advantage of the opportunities from the Russia-Ukraine war context and the framework of the EVFTA agreement, Vietnam needs to have policy orientations for the state as well as specific solutions for businesses Thirdly, in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war, the government needs to provide directions to help businesses organize wood pellets production according to sustainable value chains, enhance trade promotion, support businesses in accessing 73 accurate and timely market information, and improve the quality of the workforce Additionally, businesses should also take measures to develop sustainable plantation forest resources, proactively grasp information on rules of origin, TBT, FSC certification, etc., and actively participate in trade promotion Besides, the thesis still has some limitations The thesis has only been studied in limited time, the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war has only taken place for more than | year, the war situation is complicated and unpredictable, so the author's assessment is still subjective Moreover, due to insufficient aggregate data, the author could not analyze the situation of importing wood pellets from Vietnam to EU countries in more detail Therefore, the author hopes to receive valuable comments and supplements from lecturers to improve the thesis and improve the 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