(Luận văn thạc sĩ) master thesis an analysis of wood pellets export from vietnam to eu in the context of russiaukraine war

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING FOREIGN TRADE UNIVERSITY -*** - MASTER THESIS AN ANALYSIS OF WOOD PELLETS EXPORT FROM VIETNAM TO EU IN THE CONTEXT OF RUSSIAUKRAINE WAR Specialization: International Trade Policy and Law LE MAI HUONG Hanoi - 2023 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING FOREIGN TRADE UNIVERSITY MASTER THESIS AN ANALYSIS OF WOOD PELLETS EXPORT FROM VIETNAM TO EU IN THE CONTEXT OF RUSSIAUKRAINE WAR Major: International Economics Specialization: International Trade Policy and Law Code: 8310106 Fullname: Le Mai Huong Supervisor: Dr Pham Huong Giang Hanoi - 2023 i STATEMENT OF ORIGINAL AUTHORSHIP I solemnly declare: The data and research evaluations presented in this thesis have not been utilized in any other work and are entirely truthful The information cited in this research has been sourced from the reference list, and acknowledgments have been expressed for any assistance provided in completing this thesis Hanoi, 08 September 2023 Thesis author Le Mai Huong ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The research thesis on "An analysis of wood pellets export from Vietnam to EU in the context of Russia-Ukraine war" is the result of my personal exploration and the encouragement, support, and guidance of my professors I would like to express my sincere gratitude to Dr Pham Huong Giang for her dedicated guidance and support throughout the research, implementation, and completion of this thesis I would like to thank my family and the institutions I am affiliated with for providing the necessary resources and assistance during the entire process of conducting this research They have also been a great source of encouragement and support in my journey to complete this study iii TABLE OF CONTENT STATEMENT OF ORIGINAL AUTHORSHIP i ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS v LIST OF TABLES vi LIST OF FIGURES vii ABSTRACT viii INTRODUCTION CHAPTER 1: THE THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ON THE EXPORTATION OF WOOD PELLETS AND AN OVERVIEW OF THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR ON THE EU’S IMPORTATION 1.1 Export 1.1.1 Definition 1.1.2 Roles of export 1.2 Overview of wood pellets 1.2.1 Definition 1.2.3 Applications of wood pellets 10 1.3 Overview of European Union 10 1.3.1 General introduction to the EU 10 1.3.2 International trade policy of EU 13 1.3.3 EU wood pellets market 17 1.3.4 Trade relation between EU and Vietnam 19 1.3.5 EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) 21 1.4 Overview of Russia-Ukraine war 24 1.4.1 The cause of Russia-Ukraine war 24 1.4.2 Progress of the Russia-Ukraine war 26 1.4.3 Effects of Russia-Ukraine war on international trade 30 SUMMARY OF CHAPTER 34 CHAPTER 2: ANALYZING WOOD PELLETS EXPORT FROM VIETNAM TO EU IN THE CONTEXT OF RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR 35 2.1 The current situation of wood pellets exports in Vietnam (2018-2022) 35 iv 2.1.1 Wood pellets value structure 35 2.1.2 Export volume and value of wood pellets 37 2.1.3 Wood pellets exporting and manufacturing enterprises in Vietnam 39 2.2 The current situation of wood pellets exports from Vietnam to Europe in the context of Russia-Ukraine war 42 2.3 Assessment the situation of exporting wood pellets from Vietnam to the EU in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war 45 2.4 Opportunities of exporting wood pellets from Vietnam to the EU in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war 49 2.4.1 Expanding market share in the European market and contributing to the growth of Vietnam's export turnover 49 2.4.2 Attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) 50 2.4.3 Improving the quality of wood pellets 51 2.5 Challenges of exporting wood pellets from Vietnam to the EU in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war 51 2.5.1 Challenges with government agencies 51 2.5.2 Challenges for enterprises 52 CHAPTER 3: POLICY IMPLICATIONS AND SOLUTIONS TO PROMOTE EXPORT VIETNAM’S WOOD PELLETS TO EU IN THE CONTEXT OF RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR 58 3.1 Forecasting prospect of exporting wood pellets from Vietnam to EU in the context of Russia-Ukraine war 58 3.2 Policy implications to promote Vietnam’s wood pellets exports to the EU in the context of Russia-Ukraine war 59 3.3 Solutions for enterprises to promote exports of wood pellets to the EU in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war 65 SUMMARY OF CHAPTER 71 CONCLUSION 72 REFERENCES ix v LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS Abbreviation Interpretation EVFTA European Union–Vietnam Free Trade Agreement FTA Free Trade Agreement EU European Union GSP Generalized System of Preferences SPS Technical Barriers to Trade TBT Technical Barriers to Trade CCT Common Customs Tariff GDP Gross Domestic Product HS Harmonized System FSC Forest Stewardship Council NATO The North Atlantic Treaty Organization WTO World Trade Organization UN The United Nations VIFOREST Vietnam Timber and Forest Product Association MIT Ministry of Industry and Trade MT Metric ton vi LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1: EU overview data 12 Table 1.2: EU27 Wood Pellets Market Balance and Production Capacity (1,000 MT) 17 Table 1.3: Main Suppliers of Wood Pellets to EU27 (1,000 MT) 19 Table 1.4: Top 10 EU members in export value to Vietnam (USD) 20 Table 1.5: Top 10 EU members in import value to Vietnam (USD) .21 Table 2.1: Number of enterprises exporting wood pellets by size from 2018-202240 Table 2.2: Vietnam's main tablet export markets in 2022 (compare to 2021) .43 vii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1: Wood pellets Figure 1.2: European wood pellet consumption for heat in 2021 (tonnes,%) 18 Figure 1.3: NATO members in Europe 24 Figure 1.4: EU trade with Russian 2021-2022 (€ billion) 31 Figure 1.5: Most traded goods between EU and Russia, 2022 (€ billion) 31 Figure 1.6: Dependency on wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine from 2018-2021 (%) 33 Figure 2.1: Export turnover of wood pellets compared to the whole industry of wood and wood products from 2018-2022 (million USD) 35 Figure 2.2: Structure of export value of wood and some wood products 2021 (%) 36 Figure 2.3: Structure of export value of wood and some wood products 2022 (%) 36 Figure 2.4: Export quantity and value of wood pellets in Vietnam from 2013 to 2022 37 Figure 2.5: Number of wood pellets exporting enterprises in Vietnam from 20182022 39 Figure 2.6: Export quantity of wood pellets to different markets in Vietnam from 2018 to 2022 (tonnes) 42 Figure 2.7: Average export price of tablets by month from 01/2021 - 10/2022 (USD/tonne, FOB) 44 viii ABSTRACT Wood pellets are becoming one of the sustainable energy sources gradually replacing fossil fuels in the EU market With the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict, the global energy supply is increasingly disrupted, affecting both the global energy supply and the EU in particular However, this situation opens up opportunities for Vietnam to export wood pellets to this demanding market The thesis “An analysis of wood pellets export from Vietnam to EU in the context of Russia-Ukraine war” introduces general theories on exports and evaluation criteria used in the research Next, the author provides an overview of wood pellets, followed by an explanation of the regulations related to wood pellets exports to the EU under the framework of the EVFTA Furthermore, the author analyzes the current situation of wood pellets imports and consumption in EU countries, including market scale, characteristics, and supply sources Finally, the author examines the context of the Russia-Ukraine war and its impacts on global trade From the synthesized theoretical framework, the author analyze the following key contents: Firstly, an overview analysis of Vietnam's wood pellets exports during the period of 2018-2022 Secondly, an analysis of Vietnam's wood pellets exports to the EU during the period of 2018-2022, based on export turnover indicators, export structure, export markets, and Vietnam's competitive capacity in the wood pellet sector in the EU region Thirdly, based on the analyzed situation combined with the theoretical basis in the research field, the author evaluates the opportunities and challenges for Vietnam in exporting wood pellets to the EU in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war The opportunities may include the removal of trade barriers, trade liberalization, etc., while the challenges may involve technical standards related to product quality assurance, food safety and hygiene, rules of origin, and intense competition from competitors After assessing the opportunities and challenges in Chapter 2, the author proposes several solutions to promote Vietnam's wood pellets exports to the EU in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war