Psychological determinants on stock market investors’ investment decision in vietnam stock exchange market during covid 19

INTRODUCTION

Background of the Research

The finance industry traditionally views investment decision-making as a sensitive process that compels investors to actively seek value and manage risk-return trade-offs (Bakar & Yi, 2016) However, psychologists contend that investor behavior is not purely rational, leading to the emergence of behavioral finance This evolving field focuses on how various psychological traits influence investors' decisions in the stock market.

Established in 1998, the Vietnamese stock market comprises the Hanoi Stock Market (HAS) and the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE) Initially, in the early 2000s, it featured only four brokerage firms and two listed companies, but today boasts 682 listed companies (Phung, 2015) The market has experienced frequent fluctuations, complicating investment decisions for investors In 2007, it was labeled a “bubble market” by various financial publications and the American Chamber of Commerce, highlighting its impractical growth rate and negative impacts Behavioral finance, a theory that explores the psychological factors influencing investor behavior, offers insights into this bubble phenomenon (Waveru, Munyoki, & Uliana, 2008) However, the application of this psychological theory in Vietnam remains relatively new.

Research Rationale

Investment decisions are significantly influenced by a range of technical and psychological factors Unlike financial experts who analyze reports and risks to guide their choices, average investors often struggle to make rational decisions, as their judgments are shaped by their circumstances The COVID-19 pandemic serves as a prime example of an event that has profoundly affected investor behavior (Kiruba & Vasantha, 2021) Its ongoing impact on the global economy and financial markets has created both challenges and opportunities; however, many investors remain hesitant to engage actively during these uncertain times.

While numerous studies have focused on investment decisions during periods of economic growth, there is a notable lack of research addressing how investors make decisions during pandemics, particularly in the context of the COVID-19 crisis (Sohail et al., 2022) This gap in the literature highlights the need for further exploration of investor behavior in times of global health emergencies.

Numerous studies from Western, Middle Eastern, and some ASEAN countries have explored the relationship between psychological determinants and the decision-making process (Qadri & Shabbir, 2014; Nofsingera & Varmab, 2013; Kengatharan, 2014) However, research focusing on psychological biases affecting investment decisions in the Vietnam stock market remains limited This paper aims to fill this gap in the literature by examining the role of psychological factors in shaping the decision-making processes of investors in Vietnam.

Research Objectives

This research seeks to identify the psychological factors influencing the investment decisions of Vietnamese investors in the Vietnam Stock Exchange Market The study's objectives are designed to guide the entire research process effectively.

 To identify the influential psychological factors affecting investment decisions of investors in Vietnam Stock Exchange market during COVID-19

 To measure the influence of those psychological factors on investment decisions of investors in Vietnam Stock Exchange market during COVID-19.

Research Questions

(1) What are the influential psychological factors affecting investment decisions of investors in Vietnam Stock Exchange market during COVID-19?

(2) How strong is the influence of those psychological factors on investment decisions of investors in Vietnam Stock Exchange market during COVID-19?

Research Approach

The researcher utilizes secondary data sourced primarily from the university library and the Internet to establish the study's conceptual framework To ensure reliability, only trustworthy online journals and books are selected for this secondary data Additionally, primary data is gathered through responses from investor participants.

This study focuses on the Vietnam stock exchange market, utilizing quantitative methods for data collection and analysis A survey questionnaire will be employed to gather insights from investors regarding the psychological factors influencing their investment decisions during COVID-19 Initially, the questionnaire will be piloted with five investors to assess the reliability of the measurement scale Following this testing phase, any irrelevant questions will be removed, and the refined questionnaire will be distributed to 200 investors in the Vietnam stock exchange market.

Research Structure

This research paper is structured into five key sections The Introduction provides an overview of the research topic and its framework Following this, the Literature Review focuses on the Vietnam Stock Market during the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting previous studies on psychological factors that influence investor decisions, such as herd behavior, excessive optimism, fear of losses, availability bias, and representativeness bias Next, the conceptual framework and hypotheses are established, leading into the Methodology section, which outlines the research philosophy, approach, data collection, and analysis methods, including the design of a survey questionnaire crucial for gathering data Chapter IV presents the Data Analysis and Findings, while Chapter V summarizes the results, discusses their practical implications, addresses research limitations, and offers suggestions for future studies.

THEORETICAL BACKGROUND AND LITERATURE REVIEW

Overview of the Vietnamese Stock Market

In recent years, Vietnam's stock market has experienced significant growth, with over 50 companies now boasting market capitalizations exceeding USD 1 billion, contributing to a total market value that reached 90% of GDP in 2018 This progress positions the Vietnamese Stock Market as a competitive player in the regional landscape (Ton & Dao, 2014) Since 2020, the market has seen a surge in new stock brokerage accounts, nearly doubling in the past two years Particularly following the COVID-19 pandemic, the influx of enthusiastic investors has continued to rise, highlighting the market's potential and attractiveness for both domestic and international investors (Vietnam News, 2022).

Vietnamese investors have historically favored various forms of capital, including gold, real estate, and the stock market, with the latter receiving the least investment However, recent economic conditions and the ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have significantly diminished the attractiveness of Vietnam's real estate market (Vietnam Plus, 2022a) Similarly, fluctuating gold prices and strict import quotas have reduced local interest in gold investments, leading to higher domestic prices compared to global markets and increasing risks of price losses for investors (Vietnam Plus, 2022b) As a result, many investors are turning to stocks as a safer investment option.

The scarcity of appealing investment options has motivated Vietnamese investors to turn to the stock market, resulting in a significant increase in new retail investors This surge in participation highlights the considerable potential for sustainable growth within the Vietnamese stock market.

Vietnam's stock market, characterized by a growing number of retail brokerage accounts, shows significant potential to emerge as an Asian Tiger in financial development, especially when compared to Taiwan's market (Vietnam Net, 2022) Despite being in an immature stage, the Vietnamese stock market presents ample opportunities for growth and prosperity in the coming economic years.

Investors’ investment decision

Investments are essentially expenditures aimed at generating future gains, as highlighted by Adiputra (2021) When managed effectively, these expenditures can serve as a primary avenue for investors to build wealth, regardless of the types of investments or industries in which they engage.

Experienced investors rely on thorough analysis to make informed investment decisions, considering factors such as costs, industry knowledge, and perceived risks (Shabgou & Mousavis, 2016) They assess the balance between potential gains and associated risks before finalizing their choices According to Harcourt et al (1967), a sufficient period for data analysis is crucial for justifying the benefits and drawbacks of investments Successful investment decisions hinge on the availability of comprehensive data, which helps investors evaluate opportunities and the influencing factors that can lead to profits Failure to make well-informed decisions can result in severe consequences (Grinblatt & Keloharju, 2001) Therefore, investors must grasp fundamental concepts in decision-making to maximize expected values and gather extensive information about investment projects to enhance accuracy (Cao et al., 2021).

Investors view investments as the strategic allocation of resources over time to recoup costs and generate profits (Keswani et al., 2019) These investments can be categorized as long-term or short-term, and it is essential for investors to consider both material and human resources, as they significantly influence the potential for returns Additionally, external factors such as economic, political, social, and environmental conditions can greatly impact investment performance (Adam & Shauki, 2014) Therefore, investment decisions should be based on a thorough analysis of the project's context and environment, with particular attention to risk factors, which play a crucial role in determining investment profitability (Zahera & Bansal, 2018).

Supposed that the investors can quantify the risks effectively, the investment can cover the costs of the investments and bring the expected benefits as expected (Jorgenson, 1967).

Literature review

The main variables of the reseach are concluded based on previous studies Accordingly, the variables of previous studies are collected in the table below:

Research Source Method Variables Explanation Trend of effect

T (2021) Behavioural Factors on Individual Investors’

Stock Market The Journal of

Asian Finance, Economics, and Business, 8 (3), pp 845-

The main analytical methods used are Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA), Confirmatory Factor Analysis

The authors determine that the factors in the variable column positively influence investment performance, with the Prospect factor having the most significant effect on both investment success and decision-making processes.

Aversion, Mental Accounting Market Changes in price, news from politics, society, predictions for future trends, information from others, and the vital of stock

Herding To imitate past actions, rational or irrational

Case of Klang Valley and

Pahang Procedia Economics and Finance, 35, pp 319-328.

Overconfidence High positivism in making rational decisions

The results demonstrate that herding behavior has no discernible influence on investors' decision-making while overconfidence, conservatism, and availability bias have significant effect

Conservatism Risk aversion and anchoring Herding To imitate past actions, rational or irrational

Availability Bias Confirmation biases and excessive optimism

Snow ball samples was be used to take the data Cronbach

Overconfidence Over optimistic about the future and the ability of control the situations

The findings reveal that five psychological factors—overconfidence, optimism, herd behavior, risk psychology, and pessimism—significantly influence financial decision-making Notably, both overconfidence and herd behavior tend to have detrimental effects on financial outcomes.

Overconfidence and the belief that future events will be better

Herd Behaviour Imitates the action of other investors or follows the movements of the market

133 effect on investors' long-term investments, whereas excessive optimism, risk psychology, and excessive pessimism have a positive effect

Decision Making: Evidence on Stock Investors in

The Smart PLS is used to analyze the data

Behaviour Finance Behavioural aspects in financial or investment decision- making

This study highlights the significant influence of risk tolerance, overconfidence, and representativeness bias on investor decision-making By understanding these psychological factors, investors can enhance their decision-making processes and make more informed investment choices, ultimately leading to better financial outcomes.

Overconfidence The emotional bias of investors

Stereotypes to form opinions or decisions

Risk Tolerance The level of an investor's ability to accept investment risks

Using Descriptive Statistics, Factor Analysis, and Multiple Regression Analysis

Representativeness, Overconfidence, Anchoring, Gambler’s fallacy,

Research shows that herding, heuristics, prospects, and market dynamics significantly influence individual investors' decisions While most variables exhibit modest effects, the anchoring variable within heuristics notably impacts investment choices, whereas the stock selection variable related to herding has a minimal effect on decision-making.

Prospect variables: Loss aversion, Regret aversion, Mental accounting Market variables: Price changes, Market information, Past trends of stocks, Fundamentals of underlying stocks, Customer preference, Over-reaction to price changes

Herding variables: Impacts of other investors’ decisions (buying, selling, choice of trading stocks, volume of trading stocks, speed of herding)

Multiple regression analysis, factor analysis, and

Most of the factors' variables have modest effects, however the heuristic factor's

Making Investment Decisions and Performance: Study on

Finance, 11 (8), pp 80 descriptive statistics are among the statistical methods applied to the data to achieve the research's goals

- Availability bias anchoring variable has a significant impact and the herding factor's stock selection variable has a low impact on investing decisions

- Mental accounting Market - Price changes - Market information

- Over-reaction to price changes

Herding Effect - Buying and Selling decisions of other investors

- Choice of stock to trade of other investors

- Volume of stock to trade of other investors

Accordingly, the below table is a summary of the variables used in previous studies It is considered as the premise and basis for determining the variables used in this research:

Heuristics Prospect Market Herding Over-confidence Conservatism Availability

This study aimed to identify the behavioral variables influencing investment choices on the Vietnam stock exchange, focusing on four key factors: Herd behavior, Excessive Optimism, Availability bias, and Representativeness bias These factors were chosen based on previous research and align with the baseline survey of Vietnamese investors Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic has led to delayed economic activities, resulting in unstable financial sources for many investors (Ganie et al., 2022) Consequently, the Fear of losses has emerged as a significant bias affecting decision-making in Vietnam's stock market.

Theoretical Framework

This research develops a theoretical framework based on an analysis of existing studies regarding the impact of psychological factors on investors' decisions in the stock market, referencing the research framework established by Almansour and Arabyat (2017).

Figure 2.1: Research framework of Almansour and Arabyat (2017)

Figur 2.2: Theoretical framework of the research

Excessive Optimism Fear of losses

Psychological factors affecting investors’ investment decision

Herd behavior, as defined by Khalid et al (2018), refers to the tendency of individuals to act collectively during periods of market chaos or bubbles Raut et al (2018) found that an investor's level of financial awareness significantly influences their investment decisions, often more so than social learning This heightened awareness prompts investors to become more proactive during turbulent market conditions, as they assess perceived risks and make informed decisions based on their understanding of the financial landscape (Kumar & Goyal, 2015).

Psychological factors, including herding, heuristics, prospect theory, and self-attribution bias, significantly influence investment decisions, as highlighted in a 2017 study Similarly, Singh and Saxena (2022) found that herding bias and heuristic bias play crucial roles in shaping investors' decision-making processes, demonstrating their strong impact on investment choices.

Herd mentality, or herd behavior, refers to investors' tendency to observe and mimic the actions of others in the market, leading them to become mere followers rather than independent decision-makers Many investors base their choices not on thorough strategic analysis but on the perceived success of their peers, as highlighted by Cao et al (2021) This reliance on collective behavior can be particularly detrimental for inexperienced investors, who should be cautious about adopting this trend for their investment decisions, as the crowd does not always provide sound guidance.

Keswani et al (2019) found that investors often make poor decisions by following others, leading to a significant presence of "noise traders" in the stock market, which adversely affects market performance These noise traders typically rely on the behavior of their peers rather than evaluating personal information, perceiving risk merely as unexpected outcomes (Kumari et al., 2022) They tend to undervalue risk variance and management strategies Zahera and Bansal (2018) highlight that inexperienced investors exhibiting herd behavior are particularly susceptible to risks Consequently, during periods of market aggregation, their collective actions can result in severe disruptions, including market chaos and bubbles.

Thus, the researcher assumed that Herd Behaviour can have a significant impact on the decisions to invest in the investors

H1: Herd Behaviour can have a strong impact on the decision to invest of the investors

Extreme Optimism refers to a cognitive state where investors exhibit overconfidence and a strong belief that future market movements will surpass current conditions This psychological state fosters positive emotions among investors (Adam & Shauki, 2014) However, such unrealistic optimism can lead to detrimental outcomes; when investors fail to achieve their anticipated results, they often experience disappointment, decreased self-esteem, and increased hesitance to make future investment decisions Additionally, setting unrealistic goals can result in significant losses of both time and money for these investors, as noted by Jain et al.

A study conducted in 2020 found that excessive optimism can lead investors to overlook the associated risks of their investments This misplaced confidence may result in disappointing outcomes, particularly when investors commit to high-risk, low-profit projects.

Optimism can manifest as overconfidence among investors, leading them to overestimate their knowledge and skills while neglecting external factors and associated risks (Mittal, 2010; Glaser & Weber, 2007) This mindset often results in an underestimation of other investors' abilities, as highlighted by Grinblatt and Keloharju (2001), who noted that investors believe they possess superior knowledge Additionally, overconfidence fosters an unrealistic self-assessment, prompting investors to think they can select more promising stocks or time the market better than others (Kim & Nofsinger, 2003) Ironically, these overly confident investors typically achieve lower returns than the market average.

Overconfident investors can generate more transactions, potentially leading to higher returns compared to rational investors (Jain et al., 2020) Research by Scheinkman and Xiong (2003) indicates that these overconfident individuals play a crucial role in creating financial market bubbles Ultimately, this mindset leads investors to believe they have greater control over market situations than they actually do, influencing their investment decisions significantly.

Successful investors possess the ability to manage cognitive illusions and recognize the impacts of overconfidence They base their investment decisions on realistic, scientific, and professional evaluations, leading to more favorable monetary outcomes (Shabgou & Mousavis, 2016).

Thus, the research has the assumption that Optimism can have a significant impact on the decisions to invest of the investors

H2: Optimism can have a strong impact on the decision to invest of the investors 2.5.3 Fear of losses

When making investment decisions, the perceived risks associated with various investments play a crucial role in influencing outcomes Investors rely on available information to make choices that maximize profits while minimizing risks (Kengatharan & Kengatharan, 2014) Research indicates that risk perception significantly affects investors' decision-making processes (Mehta).

Research indicates that an investor's ability to assess and quantify risks significantly influences their future performance Investors with a high risk propensity often downplay risks while overemphasizing potential gains, leading to a higher likelihood of poor investment decisions Conversely, risk-averse investors focus more on potential gains and are cautious about risks, making investment choices only after thoroughly evaluating the associated benefits and risks This suggests that stronger risk propensity correlates with less effective and riskier investment decisions, highlighting the critical role of risk perception in investment outcomes.

Scholars have explored various factors influencing investors' risky investment decisions, yet a comprehensive set of behaviors or traits defining these typical factors remains unestablished (Jain et al.).

In 2020, research revealed that investors critically evaluate both the types and quantity of their investments (Glaser & Weber, 2007) This trend suggests that investors often overlook the importance of risk, assuming that risks remain constant across all investments (Wang, 2001) Additionally, financial experts and advisors highlighted similar concerns in their analyses.

Investors can benefit from valuable insights regarding the potential future returns on their investments, allowing them to independently assess various investment scenarios (Mehta & Chaudhari, 2016).

Investors' attitudes towards investment risks often signal their future behavior, as noted by Rashid et al (2022) They encounter investment opportunities that come with unpredictable returns and associated risks (Wang, 2001) Competent investors, in particular, are highly sensitive to these risks and weigh potential losses against returns to enhance profitability (Yi et al., 2019) Furthermore, Ton & Dao (2014) highlight that investors frequently navigate uncertain scenarios that encompass both threats and opportunities; effectively evaluating and quantifying these factors is crucial for making informed investment decisions.

Chapter Introduction

This chapter outlines the primary methodology utilized in this research, serving as a roadmap for the development of the study and ensuring the successful attainment of the research objectives A concise overview of the research is also provided.

21 philosophy, research approach, research strategy, and the choice of research method is clearly shown in this part.

Research Design

Realism, pragmatism, interpretivism, and positivism are the four primary research philosophies identified by Saunders, Lewis, and Thornhill (2009) These philosophies significantly influence the success or failure of research, as they directly shape the methodology and approach used to obtain research results.

The researcher carefully examined the characteristics of various research philosophies before choosing pragmatism for this study As defined by Rai & Lama (2020), pragmatism is an approach that evaluates the truth and meaning of theories or beliefs based on their successful practical application.

This article examines the psychological factors influencing investment decisions among investors in Vietnam's stock market By employing a pragmatism philosophy, the researcher aims to minimize personal bias in the findings, emphasizing the importance of real-world situations and practices to validate existing theories, as suggested by Maddux & Donnett (2015).

The research approach in scientific studies is primarily categorized into deductive and inductive methods According to Soiferman (2010), the inductive approach is effective for developing new theories based on real-world observations, while the deductive approach is commonly used to test existing theories within specific contexts Researchers often prefer the deductive method to explore the relationships between various variables For examining the psychological factors influencing investment decisions in the Vietnam stock market, the deductive approach is most suitable This method allows for the evaluation of existing theories to identify relevant constructs and formulate necessary hypotheses The researcher will review the literature to select five significant psychological determinants that impact investors' decisions, as noted by Sulaiman (2012), and will employ a survey questionnaire to gather data.

22 to gather necessary quantitative data in order to test the hypotheses.

Data Collection

The questionnaire will initially be piloted with five investors to assess the reliability of the measurement scale Following this testing phase, irrelevant questions will be removed, and the refined version will be distributed to 200 investors in the Vietnam stock exchange market.

This study utilizes quantitative methods for data collection and analysis, focusing on a survey questionnaire to gather insights from investors in the Vietnam stock exchange market The aim is to explore the psychological factors that influence their investment decision-making processes.

Questionnaire Design

The questionnaire consists of two main sections: the first focuses on the demographic information of the sample population, such as gender and age range, which may influence their psychology and investment decisions The second section examines five psychological factors affecting investors' decisions in the Vietnam stock market, utilizing a 5-point Likert scale ranging from 1 (totally disagree) to 5 (totally agree) The carefully selected questions are adapted from previous research, with references provided.

1 My investment decisions are affected by the investment decisions of other investors

2 I am more likely to invest if since the start of trading, the investment has been in demand

3 I quickly react to changes in the other investors’ decisions

4 I think that the stock market of Vietnam is an attractive investment channel

5 I believe that the price of stock will soon increase significantly in the near future

6 In spite of the unpredictable conditions, I usually expect best results

7 I consider myself as a moderate risk taker Sarwar and

8 I will make decision to sell if there is any political unrest or terrorist attack which might cause the market to crash

9 I think I am risk averse most of the time while making investment in stocks

10 I usually invest on the stocks which have more information available to me

11 I was informed about all the fundamentals of the company that I am confident in making my investments

12 I have the tendency to avoid investment that has bad story

13 I believe that the analysis of past performance could illustrate the future performance

14 Famous companies usually have good performance which should be considered when investing

15 I am satisfied with my last investment decisions

Descriptive Analysis

In social science research, descriptive analysis is commonly used to depict real-world phenomena This method evaluates findings through proportions, allowing researchers to assess central tendencies and dispersion By utilizing descriptive statistics, researchers can determine if observations cluster around an average value or if they are widely dispersed.

Multiple Regression Analysis

Multiple regression analysis is a statistical method used to model and analyze various constructs, allowing researchers to explore the relationships between a dependent variable and multiple independent variables (Zsuzsanna & Marian, 2012).

The general linear model utilized in multiple regression analysis is a straightforward method for predicting the value of a specific construct based on a weighted linear combination of various constructs This model is typically represented by an unstandardized equation.

In this equation, the dependent variable, Ypred, is influenced by independent predictors, represented as Xs The partial regression coefficients, denoted by b values, quantify the contribution of each predictor to the changes in the predicted variable Specifically, the b coefficient reveals how a 1-unit change in an X construct affects the Y value Additionally, the equation includes a constant that serves as the Y intercept, providing a raw score representation of the relationship between the variables.

Reliability and Validity

To ensure accurate and trustworthy data collection, the researcher meticulously selected reliable secondary data sources from the university's online library and the internet The process involved consulting various academic papers to establish a solid conceptual framework for the study Additionally, the questionnaire was developed based on references from existing literature, utilizing only close-ended questions to minimize potential bias from respondent misinterpretation The answer options provided were carefully designed, drawing from previous studies to enhance the reliability of the findings.

Research Ethics

Researchers must prioritize data protection and ethical considerations to ensure that participants in their studies are safeguarded from potential harm.

At the start of the survey, participants will encounter a consent form that clearly outlines the research objectives and characteristics, ensuring they fully understand their involvement before deciding to participate Participation is entirely voluntary, and respondents have the right to withdraw from the survey at any time if they experience any discomfort.

All data collected for this research will be strictly protected and used solely for research purposes, with no allowance for commercial or non-commercial use The researcher will ensure the data is securely stored in encrypted files on their computer After six months post-research completion, all data will be permanently deleted.

DATA ANALYSIS, FINDINGS AND DISCUSSIONS

This section presents the survey findings, followed by a thorough descriptive and multiple regression analysis to investigate the factors influencing investment decisions in Vietnam's stock exchange market The study will analyze the linear correlation between the dependent variable, investment decision, and independent variables, including heard behaviors, excessive optimism, fear of losses, availability bias, and representative bias.

General Information

This study focuses on the demographic factors, specifically gender and age range, that may influence investors' decision-making in the Vietnamese stock exchange market The analysis of respondents' demographic information is detailed in the table below.

The survey results indicate a balanced gender distribution, with 60% of respondents identifying as male and 40% as female, minimizing potential gender bias in the research findings Additionally, the age demographics reveal that 32% of participants are under 18, 37% fall within the 18 to 38 age range, 29% are aged 38 to 58, and only 2% are over 58 years old, providing a diverse representation of age groups.

Descriptive Analysis

My investment decisions are affected by the investment decisions of other investors

I am more likely to invest if since the start of trading, the investment has been in demand

I quickly react to changes in the other investors’ decisions

Standard Error 0,056 Standard Error 0,053 Standard Error 0,057

In the Vietnam Stock Exchange Market, a significant number of investors exhibit herding behavior, particularly influenced by market demand since the beginning of trading (Mean = 3.295, Mode = 3) This tendency indicates that many investors prioritize market trends over strategic information analysis, often reflecting a lack of experience (Cao et al., 2021) Additionally, the investment choices of individuals are strongly swayed by the actions of their peers (Mean = 3.135, Mode = 3), leading them to mimic the decisions of others and adhere to prevailing market themes This behavior results in a reactive approach, where investors quickly adjust their strategies based on the decisions made by fellow investors (Mean = 3.105, Mode = 3).

I think that the stock market of

Vietnam is an attractive investment channel

I believe that the price of stock will soon increase significantly in the near future

In spite of the unpredictable conditions, I usually expect best results

All three variables of Excessive Optimism have mean values below 3, suggesting that investors in the Vietnam Stock Exchange are not overly optimistic about the market Among these variables, one shows a higher level of agreement.

A survey of 28 respondents reveals a mean score of 2.865 and a mode of 3 for the belief that stock prices will significantly increase in the near future Despite the Vietnamese stock market underperforming, investors remain cautiously optimistic, leading to continued trading activity even in unfavorable conditions However, the attractiveness of the stock market as an investment channel received a lower mean of 2.745 and a mode of 3, indicating that many investors find alternative channels more appealing Additionally, expectations for positive outcomes are often unmet, with a mean score of 2.655 and a mode of 3 reflecting the unpredictability of the market.

I consider myself as a moderate risk taker

I will make decision to sell if there is any political unrest or terrorist attack which might cause the market to crash

I think I am risk averse most of the time while making investment in stocks

Vietnamese investors exhibit a notably high fear of losses when engaging with the Vietnam Stock Exchange, with mean levels exceeding 4 across three key variables This heightened anxiety is particularly evident, as most investors indicate they would swiftly sell their holdings in response to political unrest or terrorist threats, reflected by a mean score of 4.245 Such events are perceived as significant threats, prompting a quick withdrawal from investment considerations Additionally, while they identify as moderate risk-takers (mean = 4.185), the reality shows a tendency towards risk aversion (mean = 4.140) in their stock market activities Ultimately, Vietnamese investors prioritize the assessment of risks and benefits before making investment decisions, emphasizing the importance of evaluating potential outcomes in the face of uncertainties (Yi et al., 2019).

The mean values of the two variables related to Availability Bias are notably high, with both exceeding 4 Specifically, a significant majority of investors tend to favor stocks that provide them with more accessible information, reflected in a mean score of 4.57.

Investors in the Vietnamese stock market often prefer to invest in local companies due to their greater access to information, familiarity, and recognition of these businesses (Thaler, 2015) They typically choose projects or stocks that are readily available and well-documented, making them easier to evaluate compared to other options (Yi et al., 2019) Survey respondents indicated that their confidence in making investment decisions stems from being well-informed about the fundamental aspects of the companies they support.

I usually invest on the stocks which have more information available to me

I was informed about all the fundamentals of the company that I am confident in making my investments

I have the tendency to avoid investment that has bad story

I believe that the analysis of past performance could illustrate the future performance

Famous companies usually have good performance which should be considered when investing

The study reveals a strong representative bias among investors, with a mean score of 4.105 indicating that many believe past performance is a reliable predictor of future results Consequently, investors tend to favor stocks with clear, discernible information about their success or failure rather than considering other relevant factors Additionally, there is a notable inclination to avoid investments with negative narratives, reflected in a mean score of 4.015 However, the influence of a well-known brand name on investment decisions appears to be less significant, with a mean score of only 3.095.

Regression Analysis

ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F

The analysis reveals a strong linear correlation (R=0.903) between investment decisions and factors such as herd behavior, excessive optimism, fear of losses, availability bias, and representative bias, with an R Square value of 0.815 This indicates that 81.5% of the variance in investment decisions on the Vietnam Stock Exchange can be attributed to these independent variables, while the remaining 18.5% may be influenced by other unexamined factors The conceptual model demonstrates its effectiveness by incorporating essential constructs, aligning with Silva et al (2014), who suggest that R Square benchmarks vary across different fields, emphasizing the importance of consulting relevant literature for appropriate standards.

The study reports an R Square value of 0.815, surpassing previous research benchmarks, such as Bakar and Yi (2016) at 0.696, Wamae (2013) at 0.665, and Qadri and Shabbir (2014) at 0.755, confirming its acceptability The Adjusted R Square is 0.811, slightly lower than the R Square Additionally, a Significant F value of 0.000 indicates that the null hypothesis can be rejected at the 1% significance level, demonstrating that the regression model is both reliable and efficient for predicting the relationship between dependent and independent variables.

The regression analysis reveals a strong relationship between the investment decision (dependent variable) and various independent variables, including heard behaviors, excessive optimism, fear of losses, availability bias, and representative bias.

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

From the regression table above, the equation from multiple regression analysis is established as follows:

Investment decision in COVID-19 = -1.955 + 1.019HB-0.132EO + 0.25FL + 0.213AB + 0.051RB

The equation indicates that maintaining constant levels of five key variables—heard behaviors, excessive optimism, fear of losses, availability bias, and representative bias—will result in an investment decision score of -1.955 Furthermore, four out of these five variables significantly influence investor behavior.

A study identifies 32 determinants influencing investor decision-making in the Vietnam Stock Exchange, with Herd Behaviour showing the strongest positive impact, indicated by a coefficient of 1.019 This suggests that a unit increase in Herd Behaviour leads to a corresponding 1.019 increase in investor decisions Additionally, excessive optimism and fear of losses contribute positively, with increases of 0.132 and 0.250, respectively Availability Bias also plays a role, contributing 0.213 to decision-making However, Representative Bias does not significantly affect investor decisions, as evidenced by a p-value of 0.377, exceeding the threshold of 0.05.

The hypotheses are tested more specifically following the below arguments:

In multiple regression analysis, the t-statistic is calculated by dividing the estimated coefficient by its standard error (Bakar and Yi, 2016) The researchers suggest that the null hypothesis can be rejected when the t-statistic exceeds the threshold of 2.4.

The analysis reveals a t-statistic value of 25.581 for Herd Behaviour, surpassing the standard threshold of 2.4, with a p-value of 0.000, indicating a significant relationship below the 0.05 level This leads to the rejection of the null hypothesis, confirming a positive correlation between Herd Behaviour and investor decision-making in the Vietnam Stock Exchange Vietnamese investors are notably influenced by market trends, aligning with findings from Almansour and Arabyat (2017) and Singh and Saxena (2022), which assert that Herding Bias and Heuristic Bias play crucial roles in investment decisions However, this perspective faces criticism from Keswani et al.

In 2019, research revealed that investors often exhibit ineffective behavior by making decisions based on the actions of others This phenomenon, known as Herd Behaviour, indicates that inexperienced investors are particularly susceptible to risks in the market.

The analysis reveals a significant negative correlation between Excessive Optimism and decision-making among investors in the Vietnam Stock Exchange, evidenced by a t-value of -3.397, surpassing the benchmark of 2.4, and a significance value of 0.001, which is below the 0.05 threshold Consequently, the null hypothesis is rejected, aligning with previous research conducted by Adam and Shauki.

Investors are often encouraged to engage in more transactions to potentially achieve higher returns than rational investors However, unrealistic self-assessments can lead to overconfidence, causing disappointment when expected investment outcomes are not met This phenomenon was evident in the Vietnamese stock market during the COVID-19 pandemic Prior to the pandemic, the market experienced significant growth, fostering optimism among investors However, this overconfidence resulted in reluctance to make further investment decisions when faced with disappointing results, particularly in risky and less profitable projects.

The analysis reveals a significant relationship between the Fear of Losses and investor decision-making in the Vietnam Stock Exchange, with a t-value of 7.668, far exceeding the benchmark of 2.4, and a significance value of 0.000 This indicates that the null hypothesis can be rejected, confirming that fear of losses significantly influences investors' choices Vietnamese investors, primarily risk-averse, prioritize potential gains while actively avoiding risks They tend to focus on the impacts of risks on their investments and make decisions only when they can assess the benefits against the associated risks (Yi et al., 2019).

The analysis reveals that the t-value for Availability bias is 4.823, with a significance value of 0.000, indicating a rejection of the null hypothesis and acceptance of the alternative hypothesis This suggests that availability bias significantly influences investors' decisions in the Vietnam Stock Market Investors are likely to rely on readily available information when making investment choices.

The future price of stocks is often predicted based on their current prices, aligning with the research of Kengathara and Kengatharan (2014), which indicates that investors should consider liabilities alongside assets when making investment decisions Additionally, Zahera and Bansal (2018) highlighted a competitive stock market environment where investors react differently to available information, which can lead to benefits for some while potentially harming others.

The analysis reveals that the t-value for representative bias is 0.886, with a significance level of 0.051, indicating insufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis Consequently, it is accepted that representative bias does not significantly influence investor decisions in the Vietnam Stock Market This finding aligns with Loomes & Sugden (1982), who suggested that representativeness should not be viewed as a key factor in investment decisions Conversely, other research, including studies by Raines & Leathers (2011) and Pompian (2012), argues that representativeness plays a crucial role in the decision-making process of investors, potentially leading to significant effects on their investment choices.

Chapter Conclusion

This study investigates the linear correlation between the investment decision (dependent variable) and various independent variables, including herd behavior, excessive optimism, fear of losses, availability bias, and representative bias The findings indicate that these five factors collectively explain 81.5% of the investment decisions made by investors in the Vietnam Stock Exchange Notably, four of the five determinants—herd behavior, excessive optimism, fear of losses, and availability bias—significantly influence the decision-making process, while representative bias does not impact investors' decisions in this market.

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The analysis of survey data reveals key findings on the impact of psychological factors on investment decisions among investors in the Vietnam stock market This study focuses on five psychological determinants and explores their relationship with the decision-making processes of Vietnamese investors The findings will be summarized, followed by practical implications derived from the research Additionally, the limitations of the study will be discussed, inviting further research in this area.

Summary of the Main Findings

The survey data reveals that psychological factors significantly influence investment decisions in the Vietnam stock market, particularly in the post-Covid-19 period characterized by market uncertainty Key determinants include herd behavior, excessive optimism, fear of losses, availability bias, and representative bias Among these, herd behavior, fear of losses, and availability bias positively impact investor decision-making, while excessive optimism has a negative effect Notably, representative bias does not influence investment decisions in this context.

Herd behavior is the most significant psychological factor influencing investor decision-making in the Vietnam Stock Exchange Vietnamese investors are notably swayed by market trends, aligning with findings from Almansour and Arabyat (2017) and Singh and Saxena (2022), which emphasize the strong effects of Herding Bias and Heuristic Bias on investment decisions These biases are viewed as crucial elements in the decision-making process, although this perspective faces criticism from Keswani et al.

In 2019, research indicated that investors often exhibit ineffective behavior, particularly when their decisions are influenced by others This phenomenon, known as Herd Behavior, is commonly observed among inexperienced investors who may lack the necessary knowledge to make informed choices.

36 are the ones more vulnerable to risks The impacts of Herb Behaviour on investment decision in the context of Covid-19 pandemic

Vietnamese investors are significantly influenced by their fear of losses, demonstrating a strong risk-averse mentality that prioritizes potential gains while avoiding risks They tend to focus on the impact of risks on their investments and make decisions only when they can assess the benefits alongside the associated risks (Yi et al., 2019) The Covid-19 pandemic has heightened this fear, as concerns over insufficient savings to sustain living expenses during investment downturns may further alter their investment choices both during and after the crisis, as noted by Kiruba and Vasantha.

In 2021, investors naturally tend to steer clear of risky situations, even when potential opportunities are present The COVID-19 pandemic has heightened stress levels among investors, leading to increased anxiety and intensifying the fear of losses, which significantly influences their investment decisions.

Availability bias significantly influences investors' decisions, ranking third among key determinants Investors often rely on readily available market information, leading them to predict future stock prices based on current values This aligns with Kengathara and Kengatharan (2014), who noted that such comparisons can prompt investors to focus on liabilities rather than assets Additionally, Zahera and Bansal (2018) highlighted that heightened competition in the stock market causes investors to respond variably to available information, which can benefit some while disadvantaging others.

Availability bias plays a role in the investment decisions of Vietnamese stock market investors, though its impact is less significant compared to other factors Typically, investors rely on readily available information when making decisions, often predicting future stock prices based on current prices However, after spending considerable time in the market, Vietnamese investors have developed the knowledge and skills to discern reliable information sources before making their investment choices.

Excessive optimism negatively influences investors' decision-making, leading to potentially detrimental investment choices.

Excessive optimism can lead to hasty investment decisions, which may ultimately result in disappointment and decreased self-esteem among investors This phenomenon was evident in the Vietnamese stock market during the COVID-19 pandemic, where prior to the crisis, a surge in optimism led many investors to make bold investment choices However, the unrealistic expectations of these investors often resulted in poor outcomes, fostering a reluctance to engage in future investments The losses incurred from overly optimistic investments highlight the negative impact of such attitudes on decision-making, particularly when investors pursue risky and less profitable projects.

Research indicates that representative bias does not play a significant role in the decision-making of investors in the Vietnam Stock Exchange While various studies have explored the impact of representativeness on investment decisions, findings remain inconclusive Some researchers, like Loomes and Sugden (1982), argue that representativeness should not be viewed as a key factor in investment choices In contrast, others, such as Raines and Leathers (2011) and Pompian (2012), assert that it significantly influences investor decisions Furthermore, the relevance of these arguments, primarily developed in advanced stock markets, may diminish when applied to emerging markets like Vietnam.

Recommendations

Research findings reveal that Vietnamese investors have gained significant knowledge and skills in distinguishing reliable information sources over time in the stock market While the effects of availability bias persist, they are now only moderately significant Investors are encouraged to formulate long-term strategic investment plans with strict regulations and to invest both time and resources in acquiring comprehensive information and knowledge This approach ensures that their investment decisions are grounded in clear, accurate analysis and evidence derived from carefully selected information.

38 become self-determined in their investment decisions and not be so much affected by the available information in the market

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted investors, leading to increased unemployment and reduced income, which in turn has heightened their risk aversion As a result, many investors are shifting their strategies from high-risk investments to safer alternatives During these uncertain times, emotional responses play a crucial role in shaping investment decisions Therefore, individual investors should diligently analyze global market conditions and stay informed about COVID-19 updates before making any investment choices.

Limitation of the Study

Although the researcher has made various attempts during the process of conducting this research, there are still some limitations to be existed as follows

First of all, results from the research rely heavily on the current market situation Therefore, the situation might change in the future which affect the reliability of this research

The research is based on a limited sample size of only 200 respondents, which may not adequately reflect the views of all investors in the Vietnamese stock market Consequently, the findings cannot be generalized to represent the entire market situation, and a larger sample size could yield different outcomes.

Area for Further Study

This research focused exclusively on Vietnamese investors in the Vietnamese stock market following the COVID-19 pandemic Future studies are encouraged to explore various other aspects outlined in the subsequent sections.

The research focuses solely on five psychological determinants, omitting other important factors like conservatism and overconfidence Future studies should explore additional psychological influences that could significantly affect investors' decision-making in the stock market.

Secondly, only psychological factors are involved in the research regardless of other economic factors Meanwhile, the impacts of economic factors and other determinants on

39 investment decision of investors might also be significant which should also be studies with the purpose of fully understanding the investment decisions of investors in the market

The research focuses exclusively on the Vietnam stock market, highlighting the need for future studies in other stock markets Such comparative analyses would provide valuable insights for investors making decisions across various stock exchanges.

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II Influential Factors Affecting Investment Decision of Investors

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