Global Warming Part 7 pot

On the Effect of Global Warming and the UAE Built Environment 103 technologies as well as give opportunities to do various research activities in sustainable design [28]. To this end, protecting the depleted resources and switching towards more efficient use of energy coupled with replacing fossil fuels with non-fossil fuels would have a number of benefits for the UAE: • The UAE would be given a better reputation in the regional and international policy arena. • The reduction in the use of fossil fuels will lead to an increase in the exported oil and natural gas. • The UAE would gain another important benefit from none-fossil fuels such as solar and wind energy. Consequently, it will be prepared for the post-oil era. • Reducing the use of fossil fuel and the use of renewable energy will limit the effect of global warning on the UAE and on other countries in the Gulf region. 5. Summary As energy scarcity and global warming are threatening human sustainability, governments and organisations must spend much effort in reducing the energy consumption and CO 2 emissions. Buildings are one of the largest consumers of energy then they are also the largest contributor to the increase in the atmospheric CO 2 and hence global warming and climate change. At the same time, building operation is likely to be especially affected by global warming. A rise in the ambient air-temperature can lead to a significant increase in electricity consumption and its associated CO 2 emissions. Global warming is likely to increase the energy used for cooling residential buildings by 23.5% if the UAE warms by 5.9 °C. At the regional level, the energy consumption can be increased at around 5.4%. Consequently, the CO 2 emissions can increase to almost 7.6 million metric tonnes. The net Emirati CO 2 emissions could increase at around 138.4 million metric tonnes over the next few decades. To cope with global warming and the increase of CO 2 emissions, two major changes in patterns are suggested in the UAE: first, effective measures to protect the depleted resources and second, valid policies to replace fossil fuels with non-fossil. The former can be seen in the new building energy regulations. Implementing these regulations can reduce the CO 2 emissions by 50%. The latter can be seen in establishing a new economic sector. This sector focuses on alternative energy and sustainable technologies through the installation of new power plants that use renewable resources in power generation. In addition, the construction of low energy and free carbon emission built environment such as Masdar City. Such a project can served as the foundation for an extension of activities in the field of low carbon emission buildings and renewable resources with the goal of reducing the impact of global warming on our life, economy and above all our built environment. 6. References [1] Climate change. Synthesis report, intergovernmental panel of climate change. See, http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-syr.htm; 2007. [2] United Nations Statistic Division, 2007. Environmental Indicators, Climate Change, New York. [3] Global footprint network 2010. Available at: Global Warming 104 http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/footprint_for_natio ns/ [4] BP, 2009. BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2008, London. Can be found at: http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/repo rts_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2008/STAGING/local_assets/200 9_downloads/statistical_review_of_world_energy_full_report_2009.pdf [5] Energy Information Administration. UAE energy profile 2008. Available from: http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/UAE/Electricity.html. [6] Ministry of Energy. Initial National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. United Arab Emirates; 2006. [7] Kazim AM. Assessments of primary energy consumption and its environmental consequences in the United Arab Emirates. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 2007;11:426–46. [8] EIA. Annual Energy Review 2008. June 2009. Can be found at: www.eia.doe.org [9] Steemers, K. (2003) Energy and the city - density, buildings and transport. Energy and Buildings 35 (1): 3-14. [10] Westphal, F. S., & Lamberts, R. (2004) The use of simplified weather data to estimate thermal loads of non-residential buildings. Energy and Buildings 36 (8): 847-854 [11] Yao R, Li B, Steemers K. Energy policy and standards for built environment in China. Renewable Energy 2005; 30 (13): 1973-1988. [12] Al-Ain Distribution Company. Special water and electricity report. Al-Ain, United Arab Emirates; 2008. [13] Dubai Electricity and Water Authority. Thermal insulation. Available from: http://www.dewa.gov.ae/community/ThermalInsulation/thermalInsIntro.asp. [14] Nordqvist J. Evaluation of Japan top runner programme- within the framework of the Aid-EE project. 2006. Can be found at: http://www.aid-ee.org/documents/018TopRunner-Japan.PDF [15] World Resources Institute. Climate and atmosphere–UAE 2006. Available from: http://earthtrends.wri.org/pdf_library/country_profiles/cli_cou_784.pdf. [16] Visual DOE. User manual. USA: Architectural Energy Corporation; 2004. [17] Radhi H and Sharples S. (2008) Developing energy standards for low energy buildings in the Gulf States, Architectural Science Review 51(4): 369-381 [18] Hong WK, Kim JM, Park SC, Lee SG, Kim SI, Yoon KJ, et al. A new apartment construction technology with effective CO2 emission reduction capabilities. Energy 2009; doi:10.1016/j.energy.2009.05.036. [19] Radhi H. (2010). On the optimal selection of wall cladding system to reduce direct and indirect CO2 emissions, Energy 35:1412-1424. [20] Annual Statistical Report. Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA); 2003. [21] Al-Sanea SA, Zedan MF. Optimized monthly-fixed thermostat-setting scheme for maximum energy-savings and thermal comfort in air-conditioned spaces. Applied Energy 2008;85(5):326–46. [22] Radhi H. Evaluating the potential impact of global warming on the UAE residential buildings – A contribution to reduce the CO2 emissions. Building and Environment 2009; 44: 2451- 2462. [23] Emerites Green Building Council 2010. Available at http://www.esoul.gohsphere.com/default.aspx On the Effect of Global Warming and the UAE Built Environment 105 [24] AboulNaga MM, Elsheshtawy YH. Environmental sustainability assessment of buildings in hot climates: the case of the UAE. Renewable Energy 24 (2001) 553–563 [25] Radhi H and Al-Shaali R. Energy and CO2 Emissions Benchmarks: A Step towards Performance Standards for Educational Buildings in Al-Ain City. Special report. UAE university 2010 [26] Radhi H. (2010). On the optimal selection of wall cladding system to reduce direct and indirect CO2 emissions, Energy 35:1412-1424. [27] Reiche D. Renewable Energy Policies in the Gulf countries: A case study of the carbon- neutral ‘‘Masdar City’’ in Abu Dhabi. Energy Policy 2010, 38: 378–382 [28] Masdar city. Abu Dhabi Future energy company (Masdar) 2010 can be found at: http://www.masdar.ae/en/home/index.aspx Global Warming 106 Fig. 1. Locations of the UAE 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec (W/m 2 ) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 ( % ) - ( o C ) Total radiation Direct radiation Mean air-temperature Mean relative humidity Fig. 2. Analysis of UAE climate On the Effect of Global Warming and the UAE Built Environment 107 Fig. 3. Energy consumption per sector Global Warming 108 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 (Billion KWh) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 (Million Metric Tonnes) Elec tr ic it y CO2 emissions Fig. 4. Increase in CO 2 emissions relative to the use of energy Fig. 5. Energy end-uses in the typical building On the Effect of Global Warming and the UAE Built Environment 109 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Degree-days Jan Feb Mar April May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Heating degree days (10C) Cooling degree days (10C) Heating degree days (18C) Cooling degree days (18C) Fig. 6. Monthly heating and cooling degree days Heating (KWH) Cooling (KWH) Fans (KWH) Electricity (KWH) CO 2 emissions (Kg/m 2 /yr) Baseline (consumption) 6369 73049 11886 122920 176 I.6 °C (%) -9.5 7.3 3.9 4.1 183 2.9 °C (%) -14.2 11.7 5.8 6.7 188 2.3 °C (%) -17.4 16.7 6.8 9.5 193 5.9 °C (%) -37.1 23.5 12.3 12.9 197 (-) reduction Table 1. Increase in electricity and CO 2 emissions due to global warming Cooling requirement (CR) C o C 1 C 2 C 3 C 4 C 5 -258 11.8 20.2 249 2.9 27.6 7.4 0.2 0.7 8.6 0.5 4.9 R 2 0.97 F 952 Table 2. Regressing the energy cooling energy requirement Global Warming 110 Climate Baseline 1.6 °C 2.9 °C 2.3 °C 5.9 °C Consumption (KWH) Cooling 75462 80434 83390 86811 96203 Electricity 126836 131393 134173 137397 145486 Reduction due to thermal insulation (%) Cooling 19.3 19.7 19.9 19.7 15.5 Electricity 15.5 15.9 16 15.9 13.1 Reduction due to glazing system (%) Cooling 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 10.5 Electricity 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 8.1 Reduction due to glazing area WWR (%) Cooling 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.9 9 Electricity 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 6.8 (-) increase in energy demand Table 3. Performance of design technologies under different scenarios 7 Transport Planning and Global Warming Pedro Pérez, Emilio Ortega, Belén Martín, Isabel Otero and Andrés Monzón TRANSyT-UPM, Centre for Transport Research, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid Spain 1. Introduction Transport energy consumption in industrialised countries is based primarily on fossil fuels, and is associated with the main negative impacts of transport: climate change, air pollution, congestion and accidents (Sperling, 2004). The emissions of many pollutants are being moderated due to improvements in engines and fuels, but the consequences for health are a growing concern, and particularly the risks posed by nitrogen oxides and particles, which are closely associated to transport. CO 2 emissions (the gas considered mainly responsible for the greenhouse effect) are also increasing, and this phenomenon can be seen most intensely in the transport sector. The European Commission’s 2001 White Paper on transport (and the 2006 revised edition) declared that the sustainability of the transport energy model must include the control of transport demand and an improvement in the efficiency of transport modes. It is this area which offers the greatest potential for establishing an effective strategy of action. This requires a greater commitment to the processes of transport deregulation –in order to make consumers aware of price considerations–, the establishment of mechanisms to ensure that these prices reflect actual costs, and the promotion of energy savings. This approach was underlined in the 2005 Green Paper on energy end-use efficiency and energy services, which suggests that overall consumption in the European Union can be reduced by up to 20% without compromising economic profitability. This was subsequently ratified by the European Council’s March 2007 Action Plan which established this as an objective for the year 2020. The European Parliament and Council has also approved Directive 2006/32/EC concerning end-use energy efficiency, as well as revising a proposal for a directive for the development of clean and energy-efficient road vehicles. However, measures require some time after their implementation in order to take effect, and they must be supported by changes in lifestyle which will effectively influence transport use over the forthcoming decades (Rodenburg et al., 2002). A reduction in transport GHG emissions can be achieved by reducing the need for transport, improving the energy efficiency of the different modes of transport and fuels, and balancing modal distribution (Schipper et al., 1997; Steenhof et al., 2006). The measures that can be applied in the transport sector to promote savings and improvements in energy efficiency are well known in general terms (Rodenburg et al., 2002; Cuddihy et al., 2005). These include everything from correctly setting energy prices, and reflecting these prices in the cost of services, including external costs; economic and tax Global Warming 112 incentives which favour a reduction in energy intensity; the optimisation of travel in order to increase occupancy; joint planning of transport infrastructures and land uses so as to reduce average distances; development of new low-carbon fuels and low-consumption engines; and making more use of communications technologies as a resource. The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other institutions in this area consider that energy savings and efficiency will be a key element in guaranteeing sustainable development in forthcoming decades, until such a time as any current or future technological innovations can be implemented on a massive scale (Kahn Ribeiro et al., 2007). The United Nations Convention on Climate Change outlines the main technologies and commercial practices available to the sector to mitigate GHG emissions: these include energy-efficient vehicles, hybrid vehicles, clean diesel vehicles, biofuels, modal change from roads to railways and public transport, and non-motorised transport (UN- FCCC, 2007). It also details the technologies and practices which are expected to be available on the market by 2030: second-generation biofuels, more energy-efficient aircraft, more advanced hybrid and electric vehicles with more powerful and reliable batteries. All these measures can serve as the basis for a low-emission economy, and this will be possible only if low-emission fuels are used to supply the different forms of motorised energy necessary for transportation, and the complete chain of energy transformations which make that energy available to the end users (Van Wee et al., 2005). Thus the consumption of one unit of energy for railway traction involves the consumption of 2.5 units of primary energy. Energy savings and efficiency are therefore key in securing an energy supply which is low in CO 2 . Another aspect is the reduction in concentrations of air pollutants, for which the European Union is establishing guidelines for all European countries. Many of the directives in this area include measures which coincide with those for improving energy efficiency, and particularly regarding fuels and vehicles. 2. The energy and environmental behaviour of transport 2.1 Transport energy consumption In the Kyoto protocol, the European Union undertook to reduce GHG emissions in its area by 8% over 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012. The significant increase in GHG emissions for the transport sector cannot be explained simply by demographic growth, nor even by economic growth, both of which have grown at a lower rates. This indicates that productive processes are increasing their consumption of transport, contrary to Community targets which aim to generate economic growth with lower increases in transport flows of passengers and freight (European Environmental Agency, 2008). In Spain, for example, the energy intensity of road transport has gone from 0.46 tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) per inhabitant in 1990 to 0.71 in 2008 (an increase of 54%). Similarly, the energy intensity of road transport (at constant 1995 prices) has gone from 0.045 ton per million euros in 1990 to 0.052 in 2008 (15% growth). Energy consumption and CO 2 emissions can be estimated based on transport data by using the methodology and the factors developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (1995). These emissions are directly proportional to the carbon content of the fuel used in transport (expressed in kilotonnes of equivalent CO 2 per pegajoule, ktCO 2 eq./PJ). Most of the carbon is converted into CO 2 during combustion, although a part is released as CO, CH 4 or hydrocarbons without methane which oxidise into CO 2 over time. The fuel oil used in maritime transport has the highest carbon content, followed by diesel, kerosene (air transport) [...]... estimated variation All the scenarios have the same estimates for the levels of future transport demand, based on the projections for Spanish freight transport up to 20 07; this trend would represent an 120 Global Warming increase of 57% between 20 07 and 2020, but with a different distribution of the transport modes and different types of vehicles With the exception of electric trains, the scenarios include... envisaged in the Spanish Strategic Plan of infrastructures and Transport (Plan Estratégico de Infraestructuras y Transportes (PEIT)), which horizon year is 2020 119 Transport Planning and Global Warming 0 ,72 0 ,70 2,0 0,68 1,8 0,66 1,6 0,64 0,62 1,4 0,60 1,2 1995 €/l Energy consumption (million TJ) 2,2 0,58 1,0 0,56 Energy Fuel price 0,54 0,8 0,52 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Fig... Fisher, 2003; Dalal-Clayton & Sadler, 1999) Transport Planning and Global Warming 1 17 sector of the total vehicle fleet New developments include measures to influence mobility through the coordination of land use and the planning of infrastructures As the conditions and circumstances of a country change, it should be possible to measure the potential for mitigating GHG emissions for a specific period of... transport activity With the DSF scenario, road emissions are 7% lower and railway emissions are 4 17. 7% higher than in 20 07, as a result of the increase in railway activity With the technological level anticipated in the BAU scenario, emissions from all modes of transport (except air transport) are greater than in 20 07 5 Conclusion The transport of freight and passengers has grown linked to economic growth,... assessment of infrastructure development Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 20, 393–402 Berger, W.J (20 07) Abschätzung der Auswirkungen einer Einführung von Tempolimit 80 km/h auf Landstraβen in Österreich, Straβenverkehrstechnik, 8, 409-416 Biofuels barometer (2008) 7. 7 MTOE consumed in EU in 20 07, Systèmes Solaires, le journal des energies renouvelables, 185 Cuddihy, J.; Kennedy, C & Byer, P (2005)... production in Spain is 47% , due to the composition of the energy mix, which is based on coal and nuclear technologies As well as the direct consumption of energy, the production and maintenance of vehicles and transport infrastructures are important factors in total energy consumption This is known as indirect energy use The construction costs represent non-recurrent consumption 114 Global Warming and are... of each pollutant for the same units of transport As an example, the following figure shows the average growth in the period from 1990-20 07 of three indicators relating to passenger transport in the following modes: road, railway, air, Transport Planning and Global Warming 115 boat, and underground railway The following variables are analysed: growth in demand, GHG emissions, and energy intensity As... resistance, and the variety of modal distributions (Orasch & Wirl, 19 97; Advenier et al., 2002, Schipper, 20 07) The scenarios represent different fuel conditions Scenario 1 - “Business As Usual” trend (BAU) assumes that the same trends in activity, energy intensity, fuel and modal distribution observed during the period from 1990-20 07 will continue until 2020 There are minor mode transfers from the railways... technological improvements to engines The use of capacity in the base scenario is 9.4 tons kilometer per vehicle kilometer with load (20 07) This value has changed very little from the 9.0 recorded in 19 97 (4%) The energy intensity of railways decreases by 2% between 20 07 and 2020 Fossil fuels are used in all vehicles with the exception of electric trains Scenario 2 - Development of the Railway Sector... even in 2020 Transport Planning and Global Warming 121 The second observation is that from the point of view of GHG emissions, the DSF scenario based on enhancing railway travel, would be just as efficient as the ECB scenario with its emphasis on roads, using efficient vehicles and fuels In the BAU scenario, CO2 emissions exceed 40 MtCO2eq (an increase of 29% since 20 07) This is the scenario with the . (consumption) 6369 73 049 11886 122920 176 I.6 °C (%) -9.5 7. 3 3.9 4.1 183 2.9 °C (%) -14.2 11 .7 5.8 6 .7 188 2.3 °C (%) - 17. 4 16 .7 6.8 9.5 193 5.9 °C (%) - 37. 1 23.5 12.3 12.9 1 97 (-) reduction. CO 2 emissions due to global warming Cooling requirement (CR) C o C 1 C 2 C 3 C 4 C 5 -258 11.8 20.2 249 2.9 27. 6 7. 4 0.2 0 .7 8.6 0.5 4.9 R 2 0. 97 F 952 Table 2. Regressing. requirement Global Warming 110 Climate Baseline 1.6 °C 2.9 °C 2.3 °C 5.9 °C Consumption (KWH) Cooling 75 462 80434 83390 86811 96203 Electricity 126836 131393 134 173 1 373 97 145486 Reduction