(Luận văn thạc sĩ) assessing the viability of blue carbon credits in vietnam cases of the mekong river delta

INTRODUCTION

Background

The compromises reached at the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) in Glasgow in November 2021 were deemed insufficient to achieve the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C (Guterres, 2021) Current national policies predict a temperature increase of 2.7 degrees C by the century's end, with even full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) leading to a 2.4 degrees C rise (UNEP, DTU, 2021; CAT, 2021) Climate change effects would continue for centuries even if all human-induced emissions ceased immediately due to existing greenhouse gas accumulation (Collins et al., 2013) The IPCC's 6th Assessment Report stresses that global CO2 emissions must reach net zero to stop global warming (Arias et al., 2021) Vietnam, joining over 130 countries, has pledged to achieve net zero by 2050, but must develop concrete policies and action plans to meet this ambitious target amidst ongoing climate challenges.

The Paris Agreement aims to achieve a balance between anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and their removals, yet the historical cumulative CO2 emissions from 1850 to 2019 have reached 2,390 (± 240) GtCO2, leading to a rapidly diminishing carbon budget To limit global warming to 1.5°C and 2°C, the remaining carbon budgets stand at 400 GtCO2 and 1,150 GtCO2, respectively, with current annual global CO2 emissions approximately 40 GtCO2/year.

To achieve climate goals and stabilize global surface temperatures, urgent and significant decarbonization is essential to maintain the Earth's carbon budget Effective mitigation pathways must incorporate carbon dioxide removal strategies to ensure a sustainable future.

Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) plays a crucial role in emissions reduction by actively removing excess CO2 from the atmosphere through human activities and securely storing it in geological, terrestrial, or oceanic reservoirs, as well as in various products CDR methods are typically categorized into two main types: nature-based options, which focus on enhancing biological production and storage in land and ocean environments, and technological options that involve advanced geochemical processes and chemical methods for CO2 management.

While technological carbon sequestration methods have the highest potential for long-term storage, they often require significant energy and capital investment, along with various trade-offs (Arias et al., 2021) In contrast, nature-based solutions are currently viewed as the most cost-effective and sustainable options, providing additional co-benefits despite their limited long-term effectiveness (Erbach & Victoria, 2021) Proper restoration of blue carbon ecosystems, such as vegetated coastal areas, can yield advantages that go beyond mere carbon mitigation (Pửrtner et al., 2019).

Literature review

Being the largest carbon sink in the world, the ocean is absorbing over 25% of the total

Coastal ecosystems such as mangroves, salt marshes, and seagrasses, which occupy less than 0.5% of the seabed, play a crucial role in sequestering carbon, accounting for over half of the carbon buried in marine sediments However, these vital ecosystems are degrading at alarming rates, with annual losses ranging from 2-7% This has led to significant declines, including the loss of up to 67% of historical global mangroves, 35% of salt marshes, and 29% of seagrasses Without intervention, projections indicate that an additional 30-40% of salt marshes and seagrasses, along with nearly all unprotected mangroves, could vanish in the next century, jeopardizing carbon stocks and releasing carbon dioxide back into the atmosphere This degradation threatens global biodiversity and increases the vulnerability of coastal communities to climate change The “blue carbon” concept, introduced by the United Nations Environment Programme in 2009, highlights the importance of preserving these ecosystems for climate regulation.

Coastal blue carbon ecosystems, including mangroves, salt marshes, and seagrasses, play a crucial role in carbon sequestration, as highlighted by the IPCC's definition of blue carbon as biologically-driven carbon fluxes and storage in marine systems that can be managed Research emphasizes the significant productivity of these coastal rooted vegetation systems, which possess a remarkable carbon sequestration capacity that rivals terrestrial ecosystems, despite their limited aboveground biomass The average carbon burial rates for these habitats—218 ± 24 g C m² yr⁻¹ for salt marshes, 226 ± 39 g C m² yr⁻¹ for mangroves, and 138 ± 38 g C m² yr⁻¹ for seagrasses—are over 50 times faster than that of temperate forests Human activities significantly influence these ecosystems, with the potential to either enhance or diminish blue carbon through protection, restoration, or degradation efforts.

Marine plants differ from terrestrial plants in their ability to fix atmospheric CO2, as they rely on the dissolution of CO2 in seawater through complex physicochemical processes that significantly affect absorption rates (Kuwae & Hori, 2019) Additionally, blue carbon stocks are shaped by various factors, particularly the changes in sediments and organic carbon due to tidal flows, including processes like burial, trapping, and loss (Figure 1.1) When properly maintained and conserved, the organic carbon trapped in blue carbon sediments can be stored on-site for centuries or longer (Kuwae & Hori, 2019).

In 2009, Nellemann et al laid a crucial foundation for blue carbon research, highlighting the significant carbon capture capabilities of marine organisms and their essential role in delivering various ecosystem services beyond carbon storage The authors proposed key policy recommendations aimed at the protection, management, and restoration of vital ocean carbon sinks, advocating for the creation of a global blue carbon fund.

Established in 2011, the Blue Carbon Initiative is an international partnership between the United Nations and non-governmental organizations aimed at mitigating climate change through the conservation of blue carbon ecosystems.

Restoring global coastal marine ecosystems is crucial for climate action The Scientific Working Group has released a comprehensive manual for measuring and analyzing blue carbon stocks in these ecosystems (Howard et al., 2014) Meanwhile, the Policy Working Group advocates for the integration of coastal wetlands into national climate priorities through Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) (Thomas et al., 2019) Strong political commitment to blue carbon ecosystems can enhance financing, policy, and scientific efforts needed for their conversion, restoration, and sustainable management, ultimately benefiting both climate mitigation and adaptation while promoting human well-being.

Figure 1.1: Accumulation of Blue Carbon Stocks in the Coastal Ecosystems (Lovelock

To promote the inclusion of blue carbon ecosystems in conservation efforts, it is essential to accurately quantify their carbon stocks and potential emissions This carbon inventory serves as a crucial tool for decision-makers to evaluate whether the conservation benefits of blue carbon ecosystems justify the associated costs (Siikamọki et al., 2014) However, significant knowledge gaps hinder effective estimation and valuation, such as limited data on the geographical extent of carbon sequestration and storage rates in salt marshes and seagrasses, as well as human-induced emissions leading to ecosystem degradation and loss, and the impacts of climate change, including sea-level rise and coastal erosion.

The Kyoto Protocol, ratified in 1997 and came into effect in 2005, introduced the concept of “carbon credit”, which allows market mechanisms that motivate h

To promote eco-friendliness and maintain global carbon emissions within acceptable limits, organizations can utilize carbon credits, which are tradable certificates allowing the emission of one tonne of carbon dioxide or equivalent greenhouse gases These credits originate from three primary sources: emissions reduced through energy efficiency measures, emissions removed via carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies, and emissions avoided through the protection and conservation of forests Additionally, commitments to protect, restore, and conserve blue carbon ecosystems can be purchased on the global market to offset emissions elsewhere.

The UNFCCC has established essential conditions and instruments for the operation of two primary types of carbon markets: the compliance market, which utilizes cap-and-trade schemes, and the voluntary market, which employs baseline-and-credit or offsetting mechanisms (CMW, 2019).

Blue carbon credits are emerging as an innovative and effective method for financing the restoration and upkeep of coastal wetland ecosystems Various funding strategies exist to support blue carbon initiatives that can produce these valuable credits.

Table 1.1: Different funding approaches to blue carbon activities (Thomas S , 2014)

Activity Can occur in a developing country

Can occur in a developed country

Bi- and multi-lateral activities

Activity Can occur in a developing country

Can occur in a developed country

(including insurance, microfinance, and green bonds)

Current carbon markets inadequately account for the social benefits and complexities of blue carbon credits, resulting in blue carbon activities receiving only 3% of global climate investment (Verra, 2019) Validation and verification challenges hinder blue carbon's viability as a market commodity (Thomas S., 2014) However, in September 2020, Verra introduced the first blue carbon conservation methodology, revising the VCS REDD+ Methodology Framework (VM0007) to officially recognize blue carbon conservation and restoration as a project type (Verra, 2020) This development could pave the way for increased financing and market expansion for blue carbon activities.

Establishing a Global Blue Carbon Market could be essential for generating economic benefits through the protection of coastal ecosystems, addressing the value of blue carbon credits effectively.

The cost-benefit analysis (CBA) originated in early 18th century France, where Abbé de Saint Pierre proposed that increased trade and lower transportation costs could generate significant benefits A century later, Jules Dupuit laid the groundwork for CBA by practically measuring consumer surplus Despite their contributions, these early theories did not receive the attention they deserved in France or globally.

The principle of Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) was officially recognized in the United States with the Flood Control Act of 1936 In 1950, the Green Book provided further clarification on CBA concepts and introduced various market-based valuation methods for its application (Jiang & Marggraf, 2021).

Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) is a method used to evaluate the monetary gains and losses associated with a specific action, investment project, or policy When the benefits outweigh the costs, the initiative is likely to be effective (Hanley & Barbier, 2009) For climate-related actions, CBA is endorsed by the UNFCCC as it provides evidence-based support for policymakers and stakeholders, considering the implications for social well-being during the decision-making process (UNFCCC, 2011).

Research overview

At COP26, Vietnam prioritized climate change response and nature restoration in its development decisions, highlighted by its pledge to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 and endorsement of the Declaration on Forests and Land Use This underscores the importance of sustainable forest management in climate adaptation and mitigation, as well as in preserving essential ecosystem services To realize these ambitious goals, Vietnam must update its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) and develop detailed strategies and action plans, assigning specific tasks to various ministries.

Vietnam's 2020 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) highlights the significance of protecting, restoring, and planting mangrove forests as part of its adaptation strategies and acknowledges the role of forest carbon stocks, particularly in wetlands, for mitigation However, the concept of "blue carbon" and the coastal ecosystem were not explicitly addressed as measures for achieving greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions.

Vietnam has experienced significant mangrove loss, with 2021 statistics indicating it as one of the most affected areas globally (Spalding & Leal, 2021) By 1997, the country had already lost over half of its mangroves due to herbicide and napalm use during the war, as well as the conversion of these ecosystems into shrimp ponds, salt ponds, and paddy fields in the post-war era.

Vietnam's natural mangrove forests have nearly vanished, leaving predominantly low-diversity "planted mangroves" (MONRE, 2014) Similarly, seagrass habitats have suffered severe losses due to natural disasters, land reclamation for aquaculture, and coastal development, with complete disappearance noted in Quang Ninh and Hai Phong provinces (Vietnam Environmental Protection Agency, 2005) The reduction and degradation of these coastal ecosystems have led to significant marine biodiversity loss and adversely affected the livelihoods of coastal communities.

Blue carbon science is an expanding field that focuses on the impact of climate change on carbon sequestration in blue carbon ecosystems Key research questions include how disturbances affect burial rates, the global extent and temporal distribution of these ecosystems, and the factors influencing carbon burial rates Studies also investigate carbon flux between blue carbon ecosystems and the atmosphere, the effects of organic and inorganic carbon cycles on this flux, and methods for estimating organic matter sources in blue carbon sediments.

Extensive research highlights effective management practices for enhancing blue carbon sequestration and storage (Luisetti et al., 2011; Bolam & Whomersley, 2005; Plan Vivo, 2013) Efforts have been made to tackle the uncertainties surrounding the valuation of blue carbon ecosystems, a key factor contributing to the ongoing controversy over blue carbon (Ricart et al., 2015; Oreska et al., 2017; Abdolahpour et al., 2018).

In Vietnam, the study of blue carbon is still emerging, with significant research focused on carbon stocks in mangroves and soils (Truong et al., 2021; Pham et al., 2020; Nguyen P T., 2016) However, the sequestration potential of tidal salt marshes and seagrass meadows remains underexplored While efforts have been made to assess the ecosystem services provided by forests and mangroves (Khai et al., 2021; Nguyen et al., 2020; Vo et al., 2015), there is a notable gap in linking these findings to the development of a carbon market.

This research represents a pioneering effort to evaluate the value of blue carbon credits by conducting detailed greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories of carbon storage and sources, alongside the assessment of additional ecosystem services Furthermore, it will analyze the feasibility of blue carbon credits in Vietnam by comparing the benefits gained against the costs associated with their protection, restoration, and conservation.

To implement COP26 commitments, Vietnam will review forest carbon credit exchange projects, focusing on credits that align with GHG emissions reduction goals, protect rights, and promote forest investment This initiative will coincide with the introduction of carbon pricing tools, the establishment of a domestic carbon market, and capacity-building efforts to enhance market participation, alongside non-market mechanisms outlined in Article 6 of the Paris Agreement Properly pricing blue carbon credits will empower policymakers to weave blue carbon into climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies, while also enabling investors to recognize the local benefits of their investments.

Vietnam is actively engaging in various forest carbon credit trade agreements, including the Emission Reductions Payment Agreement (ERPA) with the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) and a letter of intent with the Organization for Forest Financing (Emergent) from COP26 Additionally, Vietnam is developing a proposal with the Korea Forest Service (KFS) The ERPA encompasses six provinces in the northcentral region, while the LEAF Coalition focuses on the southcentral provinces and Highlands, and the KFS proposal aims to cover twelve mountainous provinces.

Vietnam's domestic carbon market is still in its infancy, with an underdeveloped legal framework posing significant challenges to carbon credit trading The lack of flexible mechanisms that adapt to market supply and demand makes it difficult to accurately assess the true value of carbon credits, particularly blue carbon credits.

Coastal Vietnam, with a sprawling shoreline of 3,260 km, 3,000 near-shore islands, and over 100 estuaries, boasts diverse wetland ecosystems that contribute to its status as one of the most biodiverse regions globally Spanning more than 10 million hectares, these wetlands include the Red River Delta, Mekong River Delta, lagoons, mudflats, estuaries, and tidal areas along the coastline from Mong Cai to Ha Tien Additionally, south-central Vietnam is home to significant concentrations of coral reefs and seagrass meadows, further enhancing the area's ecological richness.

Rapid development has adversely affected ecosystems, leading to a significant reduction in seagrass beds Factors such as natural disasters, land reclamation for aquaculture, and coastal construction have contributed to this decline In Vietnam, seagrass coverage has reportedly decreased by 40-70%, highlighting the urgent need for conservation efforts.

2014) From 1943 to 2013, Vietnam lost approximately 60% of its natural mangroves to war, degradation, and land conversion for agriculture and aquaculture use (Spalding & Leal, 2021) h

The Mekong River Delta (MRD) in Vietnam, encompassing approximately 12% of the country's land area, is home to over 17 million residents and contributes around 30% to the national GDP This vital region is essential for biodiversity and food security, both locally and globally The MRD hosts the largest and most diverse wetland ecosystems in Vietnam, supporting 70% of the nation's seagrass meadows and 90% of its mangroves Spanning over 4.9 million hectares, the wetlands can be categorized into inland and coastal types, with inland wetlands featuring floodplain paddy fields and Melaleuca forests, while coastal wetlands are primarily characterized by mangrove forests.

This research focuses on the blue carbon ecosystem, specifically the coastal wetland areas of the VMRD, which are situated along the East Sea coastline, southwest of the Ca Mau Peninsula and the Gulf of Thailand Over half of these wetlands are permanently flooded, primarily in areas less than 6 meters deep at low tide, while the remainder experiences seasonal flooding The predominant types of coastal wetlands include unvegetated saltwater wetlands and seasonal wetlands used for agriculture and aquaculture Mangrove ecosystems are vital for maintaining biodiversity and providing essential ecosystem services; however, they have faced significant degradation due to factors such as war, firewood collection, agricultural expansion, and shrimp farming Additionally, parts of coastal swamps and marshes are located in the Long Xuyen Quadrangle, encompassing Kien Giang, An Giang Provinces, and Can Tho City Seagrass ecosystems, particularly around the island clusters in Phu Quoc National Park, boast extensive beds, with the Ba Lua island clusters showing 90% coverage of healthy Enhalus acoroides and Thalassia hemprichii, which support diverse marine life, including fish, bottom feeders, dugongs, and sea turtles.

 Climate change in the Vietnamese Mekong River Delta

MATERIALS AND METHODOLOGIES

Data collection and materials

Data on Vietnam's mangrove forests, tidal marshes, and seagrass meadows are derived from the Mekong Delta forest map, available via the Coastal Protection for the Mekong Delta (CPMD) portal, in accordance with the relevant decision.

According to Decision No 594/QD-TTg issued by the Prime Minister on April 15, 2013, a comprehensive map was developed from forest inventory and statistics, receiving approval from relevant Provincial People’s Committees between 2014 and 2015 The shapefile was analyzed using QGIS software (version 3.16.1) to measure and calculate the areas of mangroves, mudflats, and seagrasses Verification of the results was conducted through multiple sources, including the World Conservation Monitoring Centre database, extensive literature reviews, and expert consultations While mangrove data is regularly updated, specific country data on mudflats, tidal marshes, and seagrasses is scarce Therefore, this research will exclusively utilize data derived from the CPMD to maintain dataset consistency.

All necessary data for the calculations will be sourced from secondary literature A significant reference is the Blue Carbon Initiative’s manual, which outlines methodologies for evaluating carbon stocks and emissions within coastal blue ecosystems (Howard et al.).

The article examines various aspects of wetland management and research in Vietnam, referencing the IPCC's 2013 supplement to the 2006 Guidelines for Wetlands greenhouse gas inventories, and technical guidelines for coastal protection in the Mekong Delta It highlights studies on the status of wetlands in Vietnam, focusing on mangrove species and comparing them with international research on saltmarshes and seagrasses Additionally, the article evaluates ecosystem services at local, regional, and global levels, emphasizing indirect use values It also discusses recent analyses of land-use changes, socio-economic factors, and shrimp farming models, incorporating statistical data from the General Statistics Office and relevant news articles.

Methodologies

2.2.1 Valuation of blue carbon credits

The valuation of blue carbon credits in the Voluntary Market for Reduced Deforestation (VMRD) will be determined by three key factors: the carbon storage capacity per hectare per year, the greenhouse gas emissions resulting from land use and land cover changes, and the prospective pricing of carbon credits.

The carbon stock assessment in the Mekong River Delta, Vietnam, encompasses the total areas of mangroves, mudflats, and seagrasses, evaluating both soil and vegetative carbon pools within these coastal ecosystems.

 Mangrove carbon pools can be classified into four pools (Howard et al., 2014) :

- Above-ground living biomass that accounts for up to 21% of the total carbon stock (trees, scrub trees, lianas, palms, pneumatophores);

- Aboveground dead biomass (litter, downed wood, dead trees);

- Below-ground living biomass (roots and rhizomes); and

- Soil carbon, this main pool includes the dead below-ground biomass and accounts for up to two-thirds of the total ecosystem carbon pool

Due to limited access to comprehensive data on mangrove carbon pools, a representative value for carbon storage capacity was chosen based on its relevance to carbon stock and applied throughout the entire MRD.

 Tidal salt marsh carbon pools area comprised of (Ibid.):

- Aboveground living biomass (shrubs, grasses, herbs, etc.);

- Below-ground living biomass (roots and rhizomes); and

- Soil carbon, where the majority of carbon is stored

Saltmarshes are dynamic ecosystems that undergo constant changes, influencing and being influenced by local geomorphological and physical processes Due to this interconnectivity, distinguishing between individual saltmarsh pools is challenging, leading to their consideration as a singular entity The organic carbon storage capacity of a comparable national tidal marsh has been utilized for calculations related to these ecosystems.

 Seagrass carbon pools can be divided into three main pools (Ibid):

- Above-ground living biomass (seagrass leaves and epiphytes)

- Below-ground living biomass (roots and rhizomes); and

- Soil carbon is also the largest pool

The assessment of soil carbon stock focuses solely on below-ground living biomass, which constitutes only 0.3% of the total carbon pool, while the above-ground biomass is considered negligible due to its variability In the Vietnamese Mekong River Delta (VMRD), seagrass ecosystems are exclusively located in Kien Giang province around Phu Quoc Island Therefore, the total carbon stock of seagrass meadows was calculated using a regional organic carbon storage capacity coefficient.

The blue carbon ecosystem serves as a vital carbon sink, sequestering carbon while also posing a risk of significant greenhouse gas emissions if disrupted (Alongi, 2018) To effectively assess the role of blue carbon ecosystems in climate change mitigation, it is essential to consider not only the extent of these ecosystems and the carbon stored within them but also the carbon that is emitted or sequestered (Howard et al.).

The 2013 Supplement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National GHG Inventories provides essential guidance for calculating carbon stocks in coastal wetlands through the Gain-Loss method This method assesses the change in carbon stock between two assessments—initial (T1) and subsequent (T2)—by analyzing activity data that leads to carbon stock gains and losses (Howard et al., 2014).

Change in carbon stock (Mg C) between T1 and T2 = Carbon stock at T1 – (carbon losses (land-use change, natural disasters, erosion, etc.) + carbon gains (soil accretion, growth, restoration, etc.))

This research examines land-use changes resulting from drainage activities that convert land to agricultural use, aquaculture activities, and rewetting initiatives that transform agricultural and aquaculture land back into mangrove ecosystems The study will utilize default emissions factors for each of these activities to calculate their environmental impact.

19 to estimate the total carbon sequestration/ emissions for a certain period and the annual sequestration/emissions rate

Table 2.1: Annual emission factors associated with activities within wetlands

Activity Ecosystem EF Unit 95%CI 2 Range n

Drainage on aggregated organic and mineral soils

Aquaculture Mangroves, tidal marshes, and seagrass meadows

Rewetting on aggregated organic and mineral soils at initiation of vegetation reestablishment

1 (Camporese, et al., 2008; Deverel & Leighton, 2010; Hatala, et al , 2012; Howe, et al., 2009; Rojstaczer & Deverel, 1993)

3 (Hu, et al., 2012; Hargreaves, 1998; Nelson & Cox, 2013; Hu, et al., 2013; Kampschreur, et al., 2008; Ahn, et al., 2011)

4 Negative values indicate removal (i.e accumulation) of C

5 (Breithaupt, et al., 2012; Chmura, et al., 2003; Fujimoto, et al., 1999; Ren, et al., 2010)

6 (Anisfeld, et al., 1999; Cahoon, et al., 1996; Callaway, et al., 1997; Callaway, et al., 1996; Callaway, et al., 2012; Chmura & Hung, 2004; Craft, 2007; Hatton, et al., 1983; Kearney, et al., 1991; Markewich, et al., 1998)

Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions were converted to carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalents using a conversion factor of 298, indicating that the release of 1 kg of N2O is comparable to emitting 298 kg of CO2 into the atmosphere.

Vietnam is set to implement a pilot carbon market by 2025, with full functionality expected by 2028, as outlined in Decree 06/2022/ND-CP aimed at mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and protecting the ozone layer The primary mechanism for this initiative will be an emissions trading scheme (ETS), overseen by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, which will be responsible for certifying carbon credits and emission permits within the domestic carbon market.

Carbon prices vary significantly across different countries, with statistics showing a range from as low as US$0.42 to nearly US$130.00 per tonne of CO2eq In the UK, the emissions trading system (ETS) carbon price typically ranges from US$0.50 to US$98.99, while Uruguay's carbon tax fluctuates between US$0.42 and US$137.30 This research utilizes two types of carbon prices: the lowest feasible carbon price, which is between US$1.85 and US$3.86/MgCO2 based on Vietnam’s National Determined Contributions (Thang & Burke, 2021), and a second type reflecting the social costs of carbon, set at US$51/MgCO2 with an average discount rate of 3% (IWG on Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases, 2021).

To evaluate the potential of blue carbon credits in Vietnam's Mekong River Delta, a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis was conducted across five steps, focusing on the efficiency of generating these credits by comparing the costs and benefits of various scenarios.

Step 1: Identification of policy options h

Option 1 (extreme): Blue ecosystems are maximally exploited, protection and restoration policies are not available, and eventually all mangroves are converted into land used for shrimp farming

Option 2: Blue carbon protection and restoration are integrated into the local socio- development strategies

Step 2: Identification and putting monetary values on costs and benefits associated with each option

Option 1: The average costs and benefits of shrimp farming using the traditional methods, at the household level, of three provinces in the MRD (Soc Trang, Bac Lieu,

According to the GIZ Assessment Report on shrimp farming technologies (Henriksen & Ngo, 2020), two scenarios were identified regarding investment in shrimp culture development: one where enterprises lead the investment and another where communities or households take the initiative However, it is noted that this investment option does not yield any additional social benefits.

Option 2: The costs and benefits of blue carbon ecosystem restoration and protection were calculated as specified in Sections 2.2.1 and 2.2.2 of this research The value of blue carbon, in particular, was estimated using a determined carbon price, selected through a literature review of current research and reports on the national and international carbon market This process further classified this policy option into two

(02) sub-scenarios, where (1) the carbon price includes its social costs was applied, and

(2) a feasible and acceptable carbon price, within the current context of Vietnam, was applied

Step 3: Calculation of profitability indicators

Equation (1) was used to calculate the net present value (NPV) and present value (PV):

The present value of costs (BPV) and benefits (CPV) at time (t) is calculated using a discount rate (r) over a 10-year period, reflecting the growth of mangroves until they reach stability A net present value (NPV) greater than zero indicates a profitable project, while an NPV less than zero suggests that the project should be rejected.

Similarly, the benefit and cost ratio (BCR) was calculated using the formula:

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Calculation results

3.1.1 Blue carbon ecosystems of Vietnam’s Mekong River Delta

Total areas of the coastal blue carbon ecosystems in Vietnam’s Mekong River Delta were calculated and compiled in Table 3.1

Table 3.1: Total considered areas for each type of blue ecosystem (Data on mangrove forest updated in 2020, on mudflats in 2016, and on seagrasses in 2021)

The total areas of mangroves and mudflats were initially calculated using CPMD tools, but the mangrove data has since been updated with the latest available figures to improve calculation accuracy (Cong, N V et al., 2021).

The CPMD tools for coastal protection lack data on seagrass areas, yet global maps indicate that seagrass meadows in the MRD are primarily located around Phu Quoc Island in Kien Giang Province Within Phu Quoc National Park, the seagrass area encompasses a strictly protected zone, an ecosystem restoration zone, and a service-administration zone, as outlined in Decision 06/2021/QD-UBND issued by the Kien Giang Provincial People’s Committee on July 2, 2021, which establishes the management regulations for the Phu Quoc marine protected area.

Figure 3.1: Distribution of blue carbon ecosystems in the Vietnamese Mekong River Delta, extracted and compiled by author from (UNEP-WCMC, 2021; Groenewold &

An extensive literature review on the biodiversity of mangrove flora in the MRD has identified the dominant species of mangroves in each province, as detailed in Table 3.2.

Table 3.2: Dominant species distribution of mangroves by the province in the MRD

In the Mekong River Delta (MRD), the dominant mangrove species include Avicennia L., Rhizophora L., and Sonneratia L.f Among these, Ca Mau mangroves represent a significant portion of the total mangrove area Consequently, the carbon storage capacity of this ecosystem has been evaluated and adopted as the representative carbon storage coefficient for the entire mangrove ecosystem in the MRD, measured in MgC ha -1.

A study conducted by Tue, Dung, and Nhuan (2014) assessed the carbon storage capacity of the mangrove forest in Mui Ca Mau National Park by measuring carbon content in above-ground and below-ground biomass, downed woody debris, and sediment Sampling occurred across different forest zones, including fringe, transitional, and interior areas, with specific mangrove species such as A alba, B parviflora, R apiculata, and S caseolaris being analyzed for carbon stock The study found an overall mean carbon storage of 762.0 ± 57.2 MgC ha -1, which, while significantly lower than that of Can Gio Mangrove Biosphere Reserve and Kien Vang Protection Forest, still surpasses the carbon storage capacity of terrestrial forests and the Gulf of Mexico However, it remains lower than the overall carbon inventories for mangroves in Southern Vietnam and the Asia-Pacific region Despite these comparisons, Mui Ca Mau National Park's carbon storage capacity is recognized as a representative coefficient for the region.

National Park accounts for one-third of the total mangrove area in Ca Mau province, and is considered the largest remaining primary mangrove forest in Vietnam

Limited studies on mudflats in the Mekong River Delta (MRD) have been reviewed to assess carbon storage capacity in this blue ecosystem, which differs from tidal marshes Mudflats, found along coastlines and estuaries, are formed by sediments from river runoff and tidal inflows Despite being unvegetated, these ecosystems contain 5-10% organic matter and are significant blue carbon habitats due to their extensive spatial coverage Globally, tidal flats can store up to 0.9 PgC in the top meter of sediment, averaging 86.3 MgC ha -1 The only study estimating carbon storage in Southern Vietnam's mudflats found organic carbon storage at 619.8 ± 24.3 MgC ha -1, nearly ten times that of Indonesia’s coastal mudflats and three times that of Gulf of Mexico’s salt marshes Variations in results stem from differences in mudflat classification, soil textures, and sampling depths, with Vietnam samples collected from depths of 250-400 cm compared to shallower depths in other studies.

In Thi Nai Lagoon, Binh Dinh Province, samples from seven seagrass species were collected and categorized into above-ground and below-ground biomass The organic carbon content of the seagrass was then analyzed using the Walkley-Black method (Luong & Nga, 2017).

Limited access to research on seagrass meadows in Vietnam has led to the use of this study's findings as representative carbon storage data for seagrasses in the Mekong River Delta The combined carbon storage of all species within the studied plots is estimated at 136.7 MgC ha-1, which is comparable to the organic carbon storage found in Indonesia’s seagrass meadows (Alongi et al., 2015) and over ten times greater than the carbon stocks in the Gulf of Mexico (Thorhaug et al., 2019) Given the geographical similarities, this carbon storage capacity was utilized for calculations.

In the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam, the nominal organic carbon storage capacities of coastal blue carbon ecosystems were assessed, revealing totals of 762.0 ± 57.2 MgC ha-1 for mangroves, 619.8 ± 24.3 MgC ha-1 for mudflats, and 136.7 MgC ha-1 for seagrass meadows This comparison with other blue and terrestrial ecosystems highlights the significant carbon storage potential of Vietnam's blue carbon ecosystems.

Figure 3.2: Nominal C storage capacity (MgC ha -1 ) of the Mekong River Delta

Figure 3.3: Comparison of blue carbon ecosystems organic C storage (MgC ha -1 )

The blue carbon stock for the blue ecosystems in the Mekong River Delta provinces of Vietnam was determined by multiplying each province's total area by its organic carbon storage capacity Ca Mau Province alone accounts for over half of the total carbon stock, storing 34 million tonnes of organic carbon The remaining carbon stock is fairly evenly distributed among the other provinces, averaging 6.4 tonnes per province Notably, Tien Giang Province, despite its smaller mangrove area, contributes significantly to the carbon stock due to its extensive mudflat area.

Table 3.3: Blue carbon stock by the province of the Mekong River Delta (MgC) (Data on mangrove forest updated in 2020, on mudflats in 2016, and on seagrasses in 2021)

Mangroves (including sediment) Mudflats/Saltmarshes Seagrasses h

The IPCC's conversion coefficient indicates that 1 tonne of carbon equates to 3.67 tonnes of CO2 (Solomon et al., 2007), allowing for the calculation of the CO2 sequestration potential of the MRD's blue carbon ecosystem, which is estimated at 267,814,148 MgCO2 (72,973,882 MgC) This figure represents an 18% increase compared to the total stock derived from the 2016 mangrove data.

A study by Liu et al (2020) analyzed land use and land cover dynamics in the Mekong Delta from 1979 to 2015, revealing two distinct regions of change Region I, located in the southern and eastern estuaries, experienced transformations in mangroves, aquaculture, and wasteland In contrast, Region II, situated in the northern part of the delta, saw changes primarily in forests (excluding mangroves) and unused land.

Figure 3.4: LUCC maps of the MRD from 1979 to 2015 (Liu, et al., 2020)

Data on LUCC from mangrove forests to planting land and aquaculture, as well as from other land-use purposes to mangroves were summarised in Table 3.4

Table 3.4: Mangrove-related LUCC in the VMRD from 1979 to 2016 (in ha)

Other land-use to Mangroves

Other land-use to Mangroves

The IPCC classifies coastal wetland management activities, identifying agriculture as a drainage activity, aquaculture as an extraction activity, and the conversion of land to mangroves as a rewetting, revegetation, and creation activity (Hiraishi et al., 2014) These activities significantly impact CO2 emissions and removals, with Tier 1 emission factors (EF) utilized to assess emissions resulting from land-use change and conversion (LUCC) in mangrove ecosystems.

Table 3.5: Annual emission factor associated with the classified activity, adapted from

Activity EF Unit 95% CI Range n

Agriculture 7.9 MgC ha -1 yr -1 5.2, 11.8 1.2-43.9 22 Aquaculture 0.00169 KgN2O-N per kg fish produced

To determine the annual aquaculture productivity from 1995 to 2015, data on total aquaculture area and production by province were sourced from the General Statistics Office.

Table 3.6: Aquaculture productivity in the Mekong River Delta

Accordingly, the annual mean aquaculture productivity used for emissions calculation is 1,780 ± 963 kg ha -1 yr -1

Using the Gain-Loss method as specified in Section 2.2.1.2, the emission/removal calculation results of the amount of CO2eq are presented in Table 3.6

Table 3.7: CO2 emission/removal from LUCC activities in the mangroves of MRD

Other land-use to Mangroves

Total blue carbon emissions from 1989-2015 is estimated at 1,664,346,263 MgCO2, and the annual emission rate is 46,231,841 MgCO2 yr -1 , or 740.19 MgCO2 ha -1 yr -1

3.1.4 Valuation of blue carbon ecosystem services

Research on the provisioning services of mangrove ecosystems in Vietnam, specifically in Ca Mau Province, involved gathering data from multiple studies To ensure comparability, these values were adjusted using the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI).

35 resources, in monetary terms, that the local communities can directly benefit from the MRD mangroves were aqua products

Table 3.8: Provisioning values of the mangrove ecosystems (US$ ha-1yr-1, 2010)

Year Timber Firewood Seafood harvesting

Discussion

The coastal blue carbon stocks of the VMRD are approximately 73 million MgC across 115,462 hectares, ranking among the highest globally for blue carbon ecosystems (UNESCO, 2020) Notably, two-thirds of these stocks are concentrated in the southern provinces of Ca Mau and Kien Giang, highlighting their critical role in maintaining Vietnam's coastal blue carbon ecosystems Interestingly, Kien Giang province, with its relatively small mangrove area, contributes significantly to carbon stocks due to its extensive seagrass meadows.

Human activities significantly impact the dynamics of blue carbon ecosystems From 1979 to 2015, land use and land cover changes in the VMRD led to emissions exceeding 1.6 billion MgCO2eq, averaging substantial environmental consequences over 37 years.

Aquaculture activities in the VMRD account for nearly 99% of total CO2eq emissions from land use and land cover change, amounting to 46 million MgCO2eq annually This significant emission level highlights the need for improved land-use management strategies and serves as a crucial indicator for assessing the sustainability of historical development trends.

To effectively assess the mitigation and adaptation potential of the VMRD blue carbon ecosystem, it is essential to quantify both the greenhouse gas emissions and removals associated with changes in these ecosystems, in addition to estimating their carbon stock.

Although the initial investment cost for mangrove restoration and plantation is estimated at US$9,347 per hectare, the long-term benefits significantly surpass these costs The advantages of the VMRD blue ecosystems are valued at US$7,856 to US$82,186 per hectare annually, depending on the carbon credit price This demonstrates that investing in mangrove restoration not only provides essential coastal protection but also yields substantial economic returns over time.

45 ecosystems were estimated at US$765 million in the low-price scenario or up to US$11.2 billion in the highest-price scenario 1

The Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) indicates that, across all scenarios and policy options, the benefits consistently outweigh the costs Notably, the advantages derived from restoring and protecting mangrove ecosystems, as well as the broader blue ecosystem, significantly surpass those from other scenarios related to shrimp culture development Regardless of the discount rate applied, the restoration and protection of mangroves prove to be highly cost-effective, offering additional social benefits that extend beyond the parameters of this study.

The valuation of blue carbon ecosystems in Vietnam faces significant uncertainties due to factors such as the classification of coastal wetland types, organic carbon measurement methods, ecosystem service selection, and carbon pricing While mudflats can serve as an alternative for carbon storage, their capacity does not match that of salt marshes Additionally, mudflats, tidal marshes, and seagrasses offer numerous ecosystem services beyond carbon sequestration, many of which remain unmeasured Although the potential for a blue carbon market in Vietnam is evident, the complexities of the existing market for this unique commodity are not adequately addressed.

1 All benefits were calculated based on 2010 price h

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Conclusion

In response to COP26, Vietnam has formed a National Steering Committee to fulfill its climate change commitments, focusing on sustainable forest management and enhancing afforestation for carbon sequestration The committee aims to significantly boost greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation from the Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) sector, targeting a 208% increase by 2050 compared to the business-as-usual scenario, building on a 30% increase achieved in 2020 Key strategies include forest protection, restoration, agro-forest model replication, and sustainable forest management, despite current natural forest carbon stocks being estimated at 117.4 MgCO2 ha⁻¹ (MONRE, 2022).

The coastal blue carbon ecosystems in the Vietnam Mekong Delta, particularly mangroves, hold significant carbon stocks, with potential estimates of 2,797.64 ± 235.98 MgCO2ha -1 for mangroves alone and up to 5,574.66 MgCO2ha -1 when including saltmarshes and seagrasses If market mechanisms allow for the sale of carbon credits based on the difference in carbon pools from 2016 to 2020, Vietnam could potentially sell up to 40 million blue carbon credits However, degradation or conversion of these ecosystems due to human activities, particularly aquaculture, poses a serious threat, as it accounts for 99% of greenhouse gas emissions from land use and land cover changes in these vital blue carbon areas.

Analyzing CBA results demonstrates that blue carbon credit generation projects, focused on the conservation and restoration of coastal ecosystems, are economically efficient Given the immaturity of Vietnam's domestic carbon market, it is essential to prioritize blue carbon initiatives and policies This focus will enhance market readiness and support the integration of Vietnam's blue carbon credits into the voluntary carbon market in the near future.

Recommendations

Recognizing the full potential of coastal ecosystems such as mangroves, saltmarshes, mudflats, and seagrass meadows can lead to more effective nature-based solutions that enhance climate mitigation and adaptation strategies In Vietnam, while mangroves are acknowledged in national climate initiatives, the importance of other blue carbon ecosystems is frequently neglected.

A comprehensive national database of blue carbon ecosystems, encompassing salt marshes and seagrasses alongside existing mangrove inventories, is essential To address the knowledge gap in region-specific blue carbon sequestration and storage, funding should be directed toward research that evaluates management activities impacting emissions and removals in these ecosystems, ultimately reducing uncertainties in data.

In order to help countries meet their government-mandated targets on greenhouse gas reduction, the market for all forms of carbon credits is expected to grow rapidly (Jones,

2021) In January 2021, the Taskforce on Scaling Voluntary Carbon Markets estimates that the demand for carbon credits could increase at least 15 times by 2030, and up to

To achieve the potential of generating blue carbon credits by 2050, it is essential to conserve, restore, and sustainably manage coastal ecosystems This can be supported by implementing current policies, such as the National Land Use Planning for 2021-2030, the national five-year land-use plan for 2021-2025 focused on forestry, and the Target Program on Sustainable Forestry Development Additionally, the national REDD+ Action Program to 2030 and various sustainable forest management initiatives play a vital role Strengthening the viability of blue carbon credits requires a robust policy framework that facilitates the development, implementation, reporting, and verification of blue carbon projects, ensuring they contribute effectively to Vietnam's climate mitigation and adaptation efforts, as well as its international climate commitments.

Limitations and implications for further research

This research aimed to calculate the carbon stocks of the VMRD using secondary data, which provided only a general overview of its blue ecosystems rather than an accurate reflection of actual carbon stocks Experts recommended field surveys and in-depth interviews for more comprehensive data collection, but these were not feasible due to time and resource constraints Additionally, many mangrove rehabilitation and restoration projects fail due to the selection of inappropriate species for specific locations, suggesting that the true costs of blue carbon restoration and protection may be significantly underestimated Furthermore, the cost-benefit analysis did not account for the environmental impacts of shrimp culture activities, indicating that the overall costs associated with this development option are likely higher than presented.

This research represents one of the initial efforts to assess the capacity and potential of Vietnam's VMRD blue carbon ecosystems There is an urgent need for further studies on the salt marshes, mudflats, and seagrass meadows in Vietnam to enhance data credibility and support the viability of blue carbon credits, ultimately fostering the restoration and protection of these vital ecosystems.

Mangroves, salt marshes, and seagrasses play a vital role in coastal communities by providing essential services such as supporting fisheries, safeguarding coastlines from climate change impacts like sea-level rise and flooding, and generating income through timber, wood, and tourism Economic analyses indicate that blue carbon projects are highly efficient, with benefits significantly outweighing costs, yielding returns between 4.48 and 72.56 times, depending on the discount rate and carbon price selection.

The author aims to present an overview of the significant potential of blue carbon ecosystems in the Vietnamese Mekong River Delta This research seeks to aid local governments and communities in their decision-making processes By recognizing the vital role these coastal ecosystems play in climate change mitigation and adaptation, the study emphasizes their importance for sustainable development in the region.

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