(Luận văn) the effect of money growth on inflation in vietnam from 2004 to 2010

t to hi ng UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES HO CHI MINH CITY THE HAGUE ep THE NETHERLANDS VIETNAM w n VIETNAM- NETHERLANDS lo ad PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS i uy yj th pl n ua al THE EFFECTS OF va n MONEY GROWTH ON INFLATION IN fu t n oi m ll VIETNAM FROM 2004 TO 2010 A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of z z MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS ht vb k gm BUI DINH PHUONG THAO jm By m o l.c an NGUYEN VAN NGAI Lu Academic Supervisor: n va re tn to CONTENTS i gh ep CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ! w 1.1 PROBLEM STATEMENT n a lo 1.2 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES AND QUESTIONS d 1.3 METHODOLOGY y th ju 1.4 STRUCTURE OF THESIS yi pl ua al CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 THEORETICAL LITERATURE n n va 2.1.1 INFLATION fu 2.1.2 SOURCES OF INFLATION ll oi m Keynesian View nh Demand-pull inflation 11 at Cost-push or structuralist inflation 13 z z Monetarists View 15 vb 2.1.3 MONEY GROWTH 17 ht k jm 2.2 EMPIRICAL LITERATURE 21 gm 2.3 AN OVERVIEW OF VIETNAM INFLATION AND MONEY GROWTH FROM l.c 2000 TO 2010 29 om 2.3.1 INFLATION 29 Lu 2.3.2 MONEY GROWTH 31 an 2.4 CHAPTER REMARK 32 n va AND DATA SOURCES 34 3.1 ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK 34 re CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY, MODEL SPECIFICATION t to hi ng 3.2 MODEL SPECIFICATION 35 3.3 DATA SOURCES 42 ep 3.4 ECONOMETRICS TECHNIQUES 42 w 3.4.1 STATIONARITY AND UNIT-ROOT TEST .42 n lo 3.4.2 COINTEGRATION 44 ad 3.4.3 ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (ECM) 47 i uy yj th 3.4.4 SHORT-RUN CAUSALITY TESTS 49 Granger causality tests 49 pl Variance decomposition 51 n ua al Impulse response function 51 n va m ll fu CHAPTER 4: THE EFFECTS OF MONEY GROWTH ON INFLATION IN VIETNAM FROM 2004 TO 2010 52 n oi 4.1 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTIC 51 t 4.2 ECONOMETRIC RESULTS , 54 z 4.2.1 UNIT ROOT TESTS , 54 z ht vb 4.2.2 BIVARIATE TESTS , 55 k jm Engle-Granger cointegration tests 55 Error correction model 56 l.c gm 4.2.3 MULTIVARIATE TESTS 51 Johansen cointegration tests , 57 om Vector error correction model (VECM), Granger causality tests, variance Lu an decomposition and impulse response function 59 n va 4.3 MODEL FORECASTS 66 4.5 CHAPTER REMARK 70 re 4.4 RESULTS COMPARISON 66 t to hi ng CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATION 73 5.1 CONCLUSIONS 73 ep 5.2 POLICY IMPLICATION 74 w 5.3 LIMITATION 76 n lo ad REFERENCES i uy yj th APPENDIX pl n ua al n va t n oi m ll fu z z ht vb jm k gm m o l.c an Lu n va re t to hi ng LIST OF TABLES ep Table 3.1: Variables Description, Expected Signs and Data Sources 36 w Table 4.1: Description of Variables 52 n lo Table 4.2: Correlation among Variables 54 ad Table 4.3: Unit Root Tests Results 54 i uy yj th Table 4.4: Unit Root Tests for Residual ofCPI and M2 55 Table 4.5: Error Correction Model 56 pl n ua al Table 4.6: Johansen's Cointegration Tests With Lags 58 Table 4.7: Granger Causality Tests: P-Values For The lTests 60 n va Table 4.8: Variance Decomposition ofCPI (Order Reflects Cholesky Ordering) 62 • t n oi m ll fu Table 4.9: The Thesis' Results in Comparison with Empirical Studies' Results 67 LIST OF FIGURES z z ht vb Figure 2.1: The Long-Run Macroeconomic Equilibrium jm Figure 2.2: Recessionary and Inflationary Gap 10 k gm Figure 2.3: Government Intervention When Recessionary Gap Occurs 10 o l.c Figure 2.4: An Increase In Aggregate Demand 12 Figure 2.5: Demand-pull Inflation Spiral 13 m an Lu Figure 2.6: An Increase in Short-run Aggregate Supply 14 Figure 2.7: A Cost-push Inflation Spiral 14 va n Figure 2.8: CPI in December and Average CPI from 2001 to 2010 31 Figure 3.1: Analytical Framework 34 Figure 4.1: Impulse Response Functions 65 re Figure 2.9: Broad Money Growth From 2002 To 2010 32 ie gh tn to CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION p This chapter will explain the importance of this thesis, its objectives and research questions In addition, a brief of methodology is also mentioned in this part Finally, the w n structure of thesis will be presented d a lo u yj th l.lPROBLEM STATEMENT Money plays important role to the economy Greco (200 1) suggested money has five p yi functions which are "a medium of exchange, a standard of value, a unit of account, a la a lu store of value and a standard of deferred payment" As a medium of exchange, money n helps to divide the goods exchange process into two separate parts which are purchase va n process and sales process Therefore, people can buy goods at different places and sell fu ll goods in different time; hence money promotes trading activities Furthermore, money is m oi used as standard to measure and present value of goods as well as prices of goods It at nh extremely supports business to quote and record costs, products' prices and calculates z value of gross domestic products (GDP), gross national products In addition, money is z vb preferred to keep for future consumption and prevent risks As a standard of deferred jm ht payment, money makes payment become easier, more flexible and time-saving It k increases the liquidity of debts, thus supports businesses and economic growth gm om l.c Based on its importance to the economy, money growth can affect the economy in many channels People receiving more money are willing to consume more, thus it stimulates investment in order to expand companies' business Besides, growth in money supply positively affect the economy On the other hand, high growth in money may reduce its re Consequently, an increase in money stock may lead to growth in aggregate demand and n • va will sponsor government's expenditure and decrease governmental budget deficit an Lu consumption and encourages imports More money means more capital to make (Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010 t to value and cause an increase in price level Monetarists suggested that money is the main hi ng determinant of inflation while Keynesian views argued money which leads aggregate demand to exceed aggregate supply is only one of determinants of inflation However, ep • Mishkin (1995) concluded that both monetarists and Keynesians believed that high w n inflation only possibly occurs with high money growth rate lo ad i uy yj th There are also a majority of empirical studies examining the effects of money growth on inflation Several studies suggested that money supply significantly positively influences pl inflation such as Moroney (2002), De Grauwe and Poland (2005), Thornton (2008), n ua al Kaufmann and Kugler (2008), Gingting and Bird (2009) and Basco, et al (2009) In contrast, some papers, for example Fie (2003), argued that the effects of money growth va n on inflation is insignificant In case of Vietnam, there are different findings regarding the fu m ll dependence of inflation on money supply According to Baker, et al (2006), Goujon n oi (2006) and Thanh (2008), money positively impacts price level On the other hand, a t research of Hung and D Pfau (2008) pointed out this effect is unobvious z z In addition, according to the Vietnam's Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung (2011), the ht vb primary goals of the government at present are to stabilize macroeconomic and to control jm inflation at an appropriate level If money growth does affect inflation in Vietnam, k gm monetary policy becomes a powerful policy for the government to maintain inflation at o l.c its target level However, there is few studies examined and quantified the effects of m money growth on inflation in Vietnam in order to define the level of increases in money influence of money growth on inflation but also estimate the level of money growth to n va achieve the expected inflation of the Vietnamese government in 2011 an Lu supply to meet the target inflation Therefore, this thesis aims to not only examine the re (Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010 (Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010 government to conduct an appropriate monetary policy Therefore, this thesis aims to p ie • Analyzing the impact of money supply on inflation is extremely important for the gh tn to 1.2 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES AND QUESTIONS examine the effects of money growth on price level in long-run and short-run in Vietnam w n In order to meet this overall goal, the research will obtain following objectives: d a lo Analyze the effects of money growth on inflation in Vietnam in long-run u yj th (i) (ii) Analyze the effects of money growth on inflation in Vietnam in short-run p yi (iii) Advise the level of money growth to meet the target inflation of the Vietnamese n a lu la government in 20 11 n va The research questions are proposed: ll fu m Does money affect inflation in Vietnam in long-run? oi (i) at nh (ii) Does money affect inflation in Vietnam in short-run? (iii) Which level of money growth does meet the target inflation m 2011 of z z Vietnam's government? ht vb jm 1.3METHODOLOGY k gm In order to examine the dependence of inflation on money growth in Vietnam in long-run l.c and short-run, monthly data from December 2003 to June 2010 are collected from om International Monetary Fund and Vietnam General Statistics Office The research will an Lu employ descriptive statistics and econometric techniques (Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010 re correlation matrix will suggest the potential relationship between each pair of variables n data collection such as their distribution, central tendency and variation Then the va Descriptive analysis will firstly give a summary of all variables to provide an overview of (Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010 validation oft-tests and F-tests After that, four econometric techniques will be applied in gh tn to In addition, the unit root tests are used to test for stationary of all variables to ensure the p ie this thesis in order to examine the long-run and short-run effects of money growth on inflation w n a lo Firstly, to investigate the long-run influence of money growth on inflation to answer the d u yj th first research question, the Enge-Granger cointegration test and error correction mechanism (ECM) are employed la p yi Secondly, the thesis will add other determinants of inflation into a model with money a lu n growth then apply the Johansen co integration tests to re-test the effects of money growth va on inflation in long-run and confirm the number of co integration equations n ll fu oi m After that, in order to answer the second research question, vector error correction model at nh (VECM), Granger causality tests, variance decomposition and impulse response functions are used to examine the short-run impact of money on inflation z z vb jm ht Finally, a level of money growth is forecasted by applying VECM to meet the target inflation level of the Vietnamese government in 2011 to answer the third research k gm question l.c om 1.4 STRUCTURE OF THESIS an Lu The thesis consists of five chapters (Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010 re n presents the methodology is applied in the thesis va Chapter presents the important of the thesis' findings and its objectives It also briefly (Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010 and inflation Then the chapter focuses on Keynesian views and the quantity theory of gh tn to Chapter demonstrates the literature review It starts with definitions of money growth p ie money After that, empirical studies regarding the effects of money growth on inflation are introduced An overview of inflation rate and growth in money supply in Vietnam w from 2000 to 2010 is also presented in this chapter n d a lo u yj th Chapter is based on theories and empirical research to present an analytical framework then develop a model explaining inflation in short-run in Vietnam This chapter will p yi mention data sources as well as economic techniques used in the thesis a lu la n Chapter presents results of hypotheses testing and suggests the level of money growth va to achieve the target inflation ofVietnamese government in 2011 n ll fu oi m Chapter will give the conclusion, policy implications and suggest for further studies at nh z z k jm ht vb gm om l.c an Lu n va re (Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010 (Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010 tn to Binh, P T (2010) Time series data [Lecture note] Applied economics VietnamNetherlands program for M.A in development economics, Ho Chi Minh City, p ie gh Vietnam Camen, U (2005), "Monetary policy in Vietnam: The case of a transition country", BIS w paper, no.31, pp 232-252 n a lo Dickey, D.A and Fuller, W.A (1979) 'Distribution of the estimators for 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(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010 re approach", Bank ofFinland, Discussion Paper , vol 16 (Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010 tn to Mackinnon, J.G (1996) 'Numerical distribution functions for unit root and cointegration tests', Journal ofApplied Econometrics, Vol.11, No.6, pp.601-618 gh p ie Mankiw, G (2002), Macroeconomics, 5th ed, Worth Publishers, New York McTaggart, D., et al (2007), Macroeconomics,5th ed, Pearson Education Australia, New w South Wales, pp 688- 705 n a lo Michener, R (2003) Notes on the use of logarithms in economic [Lecture note] d Mathematical economics University ofVirginia, Virginia, United States u yj th Mishkin, F S (1995), The economics of money, banking and financial markets, 4th ed, p yi Harper Collins, New York, pp 681-708 a lu la Moroney, J.R (2002), "Money growth, output growth, and inflation: Estimation of a modem quantity", Southern Economic Journal, vol 69, no 2, pp 398 n (2006), "Sources of inflation in Bangladesh: Recent macroeconomic n va Mortaza, M.G ll fu experience", Working Paper Series, no WP0704 oi m Phillips, P.C.B and Perron, P (1988) 'Testing for a unit root in time series regression', V (2001), Inflation Economics Web Institute at Piana, nh Biometrica, Vol.75, No.2, pp.335-346 Available from: z z http://www economicswebinstitute.org/glossary/inflat.htm [Accessed: July 20, 20 10] vb ht Quan, A (2011), VnEconomy- Tong cue thong ke:"Lam phat Ia bieu hien cua tien ra"- k jm Thoi su Available from: http://vneconomy.vn/20110101124359314p0c9920/tong- gm cuc-thong-ke-lam-phat-la-bieu-hien-cua-tien-ra.htm [Accessed: January 12 , 2011] Stock, J.H and Watson, M.W (2007) Introduction to econometrics, 2nd Edition, Pearson l.c om Education possibly integrated processes', Journal ofEconometrics, Vol.66, No.1, pp.225-250 80 (Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010 re Toda, H.Y and Yamamoto, T (1995) 'Statistical inference in vector autoregressive with n Journal ofEconomics, vol 76, no 3, pp 356 va Thornton, J (2008), "Money, output and inflation in African countries", South African an Paper for obtaining the degree ofMaster ofArts in development studies Lu Thanh, B T (2008), "Inflation in Vietnam over the period 1990-2007", ISS Research (Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010 Augmented Dickey-Fuller test Null Hypothesis: RESIDCPI_M2 has a unit root Exogenous: None Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=11) p ie gh tn to APPENDIX 1: ENGLE-GRANGER COINTEGRATION TEST w n Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic Test critical values: 1% level 5% level 10% level d a lo t-Statistic Pro b.* -3.232632 -2.596160 -1.945199 -1.613948 0.0016 u yj th *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values p yi n a lu la Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RESIDCPI_M2) Method: Least Squares Date: 02/14/11 Time: 20:30 Sample (adjusted): 2004M04 2010M06 Included observations: 75 after adjustments n va Std Error RESIDCPI_M2(-1) D(RESIDCPI_M2(-1)) D(AESIDCPI_M2( -2)) D(AESIDCPI_M2( -3)) -0.090700 0.381357 0.129278 0.264774 0.028058 0.108395 0.109872 0.107041 A-squared Adjusted A-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat 0.366748 0.339991 0.004301 0.001313 304.3101 1.975939 Prob t-Statistic ll Coefficient fu Variable oi m -3.232632 3.518216 1.176626 2.473572 -0.000128 0.005294 -8.008271 -7.884671 -7.958919 z z k jm ht vb Mean dependent var S.D.dependentvar Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter at nh 0.0019 0.0008 0.2433 0.0158 gm om l.c -2.006068 -2.594946 -1.945024 -1.614050 0.0436 n va Prob.* re *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Residual variance (no correction) HAC corrected variance (Bartlett kernel) an Adj t-Stat Lu Phillips-Perron test statistic Test critical values: 1% level 5% level 10% level Phillips-Perron test Null Hypothesis: AESIDCPI_M2 has a unit root Exogenous: None Bandwidth: (Newey-West using Bartlett kernel) 2.83E-05 7.31 E-05 (Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010 (Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010 p ie gh tn to Phillips-Perron Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RESIDCPI_M2) Method: Least Squares Date: 02/14/11 Time: 20:30 Sample (adjusted): 2004M01 201 OM06 Included observations: 78 after adjustments w n a lo Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic RESIDCPI_ M2( -1) -0.040331 0.032066 -1.257761 Variable d u yj th 0.020129 0.020129 0.005356 0.002209 297.7258 111566 0.2123 7.67E-06 0.005411 -7.608353 -7.578138 -7.596257 Mean dependent var S.D.dependentvar Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter n a lu la p yi A-squared Adjusted A-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat Pro b va n APPENDIX 2: ERROR CORRECTION MODEL ll fu oi m Dependent Variable: D(CPI) Method: Least Squares Date: 04/08/11 Time: 23:06 Sample (adjusted): 2004M01 2010M06 Included observations: 78 after adjustments at nh z Coefficient Std Error t -Statistic Pro b c 0.005375 0.181574 -0.068367 0.000696 0.057748 0.022000 7.717911 -3.144228 -3.107526 0.0000 0.0024 0.0027 z Variable gm om l.c 0.003613 0.003987 -8.354756 -8.264114 -8.318470 1.059195 k Mean dependent var S.D.dependentvar Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat jm 0.186956 0.165275 0.003642 0.000995 328.8355 8.622951 0.000426 ht A-squared Adjusted A-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) vb D(M2) AESIDCPI_M2(-1) an Lu n va APPENDIX 3: JOHANSEN'S COINTFGRATION TESTS (Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010 re Date: 02/14/11 Time: 20:34 Sample (adjusted): 2004M10 2010M06 Included observations: 69 after adjustments Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend Series: CPI M2 OUTPUT CREDIT RATE FOREX Lags interval (in first differences): to (Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010 Hypothesized No of CE(s) p ie gh tn to ' Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace) None* At most * At most * At most * At most * At most w n Trace Statistic 0.05 Critical Value Prob.** 0.967421 0.797890 0.634147 0.519369 0.307195 0.007636 492.3764 256.1137 145.7867 76.40561 25.85239 0.528889 95.75366 69.81889 47.85613 29.79707 15.49471 3.841466 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0010 0.4671 d a lo Eigenvalue u yj th Trace test indicates cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level **MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values p yi la Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue) 236.2627 110.3270 69.38107 50.55322 25.32350 0.528889 n 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0006 0.4671 n va 40.07757 33.87687 27.58434 21.13162 14.26460 3.841466 oi 0.967421 0.797890 0.634147 0.519369 0.307195 0.007636 Prob.** m None* At most * At most * At most * At most * At most 0.05 Critical Value ll Max-Eigen Statistic fu Eigenvalue a lu Hypothesized No of CE(s) nh at Max-eigenvalue test indicates cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level **MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values z z 0.000399 0.000600 0.008061 0.000939 -0.000352 0.000448 Log likelihood 1900.163 om -0.000484 -0.001213 -0.002544 -0.000853 -0.003505 0.000273 l.c 4.04E-05 0.001653 0.000282 0.001192 -0.005074 -0.000280 FOR EX -4159.585 1156.014 136.7819 -4884.219 870.8772 2616.725 RATE -436.1113 288.1688 91.18991 -577.5137 121.8321 252.3681 gm CREDIT 504.3482 -328.4831 -65.22845 415.7824 -41.59585 -102.0798 k OUTPUT 224.3390 -54.97094 207.4943 -109.9975 -177.4187 -60.94781 jm M2 -458.2183 279.8314 -183.7702 -219.0340 120.6655 128.4891 ht CPI 154.0283 26.52877 414.9928 358.5410 -136.7728 -347.7573 vb Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11 *b=l): Cointegrating Equation(s): -0.000130 -0.000336 0.012679 -0.000945 -0.000102 -0.000390 (Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010 2.47E-07 9.11E-05 -0.000711 -3.22E-05 0.000313 4.29E-05 re 0.000297 -0.000514 -0.013502 -0.001614 -0.004549 -0.000499 n D(CPI) D(M2) D(OUTPUT) D(CREDIT) D(RATE) D(FOREX) va an Lu Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha): (Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010 FOR EX -27.00532 (2.03325) ie gh tn to Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses) CPI M2 OUTPUT CREDIT RATE 1.000000 -2.974897 1.456479 3.274386 -2.831371 (0.19189) (0.13169) (0.26211) (0.26782) p Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses) D(CPI) 0.045776 (0.04404) D(M2) -0.079094 (0.14432) D(OUTPUT) -2.079643 (1.38822) D(CREDIT) -0.248630 (0.14301) D(RATE) -0.700629 (0.41533) D(FOREX) -0.076829 (0.05958) w n d a lo a lu la p yi u yj th 1955.327 Log likelihood n Cointegrating Equation(s): va Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses) CPI M2 OUTPUT CREDIT RATE 1.000000 0.000000 0.680236 -0.169831 0.181089 (0.39828) (0.44571) (0.65881) 0.000000 1.000000 -0.260931 -1.157760 1.012627 (0.13094) (0.14653) (0.21659) n FOR EX -11.47846 (5.26254) 5.219296 (1.73009) ll fu oi m at z z k jm ht vb gm om l.c error in parentheses) -0.124880 (0.15333) 0.697860 (0.40690) 6.265582 (4.83874) 1.073120 (0.45057) 0.664395 (1.12751) 0.150136 (0.20154) nh Adjustment coefficients (standard D(CPI) 0.046847 (0.04463) D(M2) -0.035241 (0.11845) D(OUTPUT) -2.072167 (1.40858) D(CREDIT) -0.217016 (0.13116) D(RATE) -0.835240 (0.32822) -0.084263 D(FOREX) (0.05867) Log likelihood Lu Cointegrating Equation(s): 1990.017 an (Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010 re Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses) n FOR EX 20.99227 (4.74099) -7.236138 (3.88707) -47.73454 (11.0818) va Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses) CPI M2 OUTPUT CREDIT RATE 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -1.319786 1.301220 (0.23677) (0.48958) 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 -0.716650 0.582956 (0.40140) (0.19412) 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 1.690524 -1.646682 (0.55343) (1.14438) (Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010 tn to D(CPI) D(M2) gh p ie D(OUTPUT) D(CREDIT) w D(RATE) n -0.035959 (0.13374) 0.920768 (0.36375) 6.733059 (5.09164) 1.229955 (0.44803) 1.308437 (0.99032) 0.099951 (0.20666) -0.035949 (0.07317) -0.457751 (0.19902) -3.572274 (2.78579) -0.604715 (0.24513) -1.468707 (0.54183) -0.039831 (0.11307) Log likelihood 2015.294 d a lo D(FOREX) -0.153957 (0.10450) -0.538616 (0.28425) -3.127831 (3.97874) -0.571183 (0.35010) -2.289626 (0.77386) 0.029065 (0.16149) u yj th Cointegrating Equation(s): p yi Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses) CPI M2 OUTPUT CREDIT RATE 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.276690 (0.07058) 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.273857 (0.29236) 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.374476 (0.20024) 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 -1.195581 (0.17825) n a lu la FOR EX -6.679001 (0.28197) -22.26177 (1.16794) -12.29018 (0.79996) -20.96649 (0.71209) n va ll fu oi m 0.334125 (0.14287) -0.473370 (0.44726) -3.384588 (6.28712) -0.759477 (0.53232) -0.545214 (1.27876) 0.009033 (0.24391) at z z k jm ht vb gm Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood om l.c error in parentheses) -0.123374 -0.079848 (0.11833) (0.06408) 0.789343 -0.523752 (0.37044) (0.20060) 4.967434 -4.458961 (5.20725) (2.81980) 1.024285 -0.708001 (0.44089) (0.23875) 1.385589 -1 429962 (1.05912) (0.57353) 0.001779 -0.089132 (0.20202) (0.1 0940) nh Adjustment coefficients (standard D(CPI) -0.010865 (0.11 093) D(M2) -0.323483 (0.34728) D(OUTPUT) -0.237645 (4.88171) D(CREDIT) -0.234517 {0.41333) D(RATE) -2.415917 (0.99291) D(FOREX) 0.189765 (0.18939) 2027.956 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 (Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010 re 0.000000 n 0.000000 va 1.000000 an 0.000000 FOR EX -7.525218 (0.53534) -23.09932 (1.27378) -11.14490 (0.84893) -24.62300 (2.07333) -3.058355 (1.55959) Lu Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses) CPI M2 OUTPUT CREDIT RATE 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 (Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010 p ie gh tn to Adjustment coefficients (standard D(CPI) 0.006862 (0.11123) D(M2) -0.277541 (0.351 04) D(OUTPUT) -1 971736 (4.36572) D(CREDIT) -0.105226 (0.38278) D(RATE) -2.401969 (1.02087) D(FOREX) 0.243049 (0.17925) w n d a lo -0.408372 (0.15053) 0.202234 (0.47510) 2.626825 (5.90850) 0.312099 (0.51805) 0.392944 (1.38163) -0.144634 (0.24260) 0.339516 (0.13952) -0.459398 (0.44034) -3.911966 (5.47628) -0.720156 (0.48016) -0.540972 (1.28056) 0.025238 (0.22485) p yi u yj th error in parentheses) -0.139014 -0.056853 (0.07096) (0.11762) 0.748811 -0.464157 (0.37122) (0.22396) 6.497306 -6.708385 (4.61666) (2 78529) 0.910219 -0.540287 (0.404 78) (0.24421) 1.373283 -1 411868 (1.07955) (0.65131) -0.045230 -0.020013 (0.18956) (0.11436) APPENDIX 4: VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL a lu la n Vector Error Correction Estimates Date: 01/07/11 Time: 23:19 Sample (adjusted): 2004M10 2010M06 Included observations: 69 after adjustments Standard errors in () & t-statistics in [] n va CointEq1 CointEq2 CointEq4 CointEq5 CPI(-1) 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 M2(-1) 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 OUTPUT(-1) 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 CREDIT(-1) 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 RATE(-1) 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 FOREX(-1) -7.525218 (0.53534) (-14.0569] -23.09932 (1.27378) [-18.1345] -11.14490 (0.84893) [-13.1282] -24.62300 (2.07333) [-11.8760] c 29.62253 91.34233 42.30530 97.80064 11.82389 Error Correction: D(CPI) D(M2) D(OUTPUT) D(CREDIT) D(RATE) D(FOREX) CointEq1 0.006862 (0.11123) [ 0.06170] -0.277541 (0.351 04) (-0.79062] -1.971736 (4.36572) (-0.45164] -0.105226 {0.38278) [-0.27490] -2.401969 (1.02087) [-2.35286] 0.243049 (0.17925) [ 1.35591] CointEq2 -0.139014 (0.11762) (-1.18190] 0.748811 (0.37122) [ 2.01716] 6.497306 (4.61666) [ 1.40736] 0.910219 {0.40478) [ 2.24865] 1.373283 (1.07955) [ 1.27209] -0.045230 {0.18956) (-0.23861] CointEq3 -0.056853 (0.07096) -0.464157 (0.22396) -6.708385 (2.78529) -0.540287 (0.24421) -1.411868 (0.65131) -0.020013 (0.11436) m CointEq3 oi ll fu Cointegrating Eq: at nh 0.000000 z 0.000000 vb z 0.000000 k jm ht 1.000000 gm -3.058355 (1.55959) [-1.96100] om l.c an Lu n va re (Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010 (Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010 [-2.07248) [-2.40851] [-2.21237) [-2.16775] [-0.17500] CointEq4 0.339516 (0.13952) [ 2.43345) -0.459398 (0.44034) [-1.04327) -3.911966 (5.47628) [-0.71435] -0.720156 (0.48016) [-1.49984] -0.540972 (1.28056) [-0.42245) 0.025238 (0.22485) [0.11224) CointEq5 -0.408372 (0.15053) [-2.71286] 0.202234 (0.47510) [ 0.42567) 2.626825 (5.90850) [ 0.44458] 0.312099 (0.51805) [ 0.60245] 0.392944 (1.38163) [ 0.28441] -0.144634 (0.24260) [-0.59619] -0.428841 (0.39892) [-1.07500] 0.005511 (1.25905) [ 0.00438] 5.835939 (15.6580) [ 0.37271] -0.313283 (1.37288) [-0.22819] 4.844949 (3.66144) [ 1.32323] 0.220357 (0.64290) [ 0.34275] -0.791084 (0.85142) [-0.92914] 12.39205 (10.5886) [ 1.17032] 0.404011 (0.92840) [ 0.43517] 4.232388 (2.47602) [ 1.70935) 0.315185 (0.43476) [ 0.72497) 0.474328 (0.84083) [ 0.56412] 7.985741 (1 0.4569) [ 0.76368] 0.051850 (0.91685) [ 0.05655] 7.235831 (2.44521) [ 2.95918] -0.698066 (0.42935) [-1.62587] va 12.45312 (15.2371) [ 0.81729] -0.688405 (1.33597) [-0.51528] 8.371445 (3.56301) [ 2.34954] -0.645473 (0.62562) [-1.03173] -1.115338 (1.46665) [-0.76046] 11.85233 (3.91153) [ 3.03010] 0.772231 (0.68682) [ 1.12436] 0.338761 (2.05112) [0.16516) 5.933169 (5.47029) [ 1.08462] 1.076474 (0.96051) [ 1.12073] -2.544347 (4.60303) [-0.55275] -0.624709 (0.80823) [-0.77293] ~ p ie gh tn to [-0.80119] w n d a lo D(CPI(-1)) u yj th D(CPI(-2)) 0.433366 (0.26641) [ 1.62668] D(CPI(-4)) 0.615369 (0.38820) [ 1.58519] 0.679336 (1.22520) [ 0.55447] D(CPI(-5)) 1.219399 (0.42617) [ 2.86130] -0.274049 (1.34504) [-0.20375] D(CPI(-6)) 1.224591 (0.59600) [ 2.05468] -1.393400 (1.881 05) [-0.74076] 0.505943 (23.3935) [ 0.02163) D(CPI(-7)) 0.365234 (0.50151) [ 0.72827] -0.682153 (1.58283) [-0.43097] -9.213336 (19.6847) [-0.46805) -0.757902 (1.72594) [-0.43913] D(CPI(-8)) -0.301599 (0.17882) [-1.68662] 0.323623 (0.56437) [ 0.57342] -10.22343 (7.01878) [-1.45658] -0.444833 (0.61540) [-0.72284] D(CPI(-9)) -0.261013 (0.24424) [-1.06868] -0.867895 (0.77085) [-1.12590] -0.308420 (9.58657) [-0.03217] -0.195338 (0.84054) [-0.23239] 0.210743 (2.24171) [ 0.09401] 0.078826 (0.39362) [ 0.20026] D(M2(-1)) 0.140811 (0 19114) [ 0.73669] -0.267202 (0.60326) [-0.44293] -4.895562 (7.50243) [-0.65253] -1.061596 (0.65781) [-1.61384] -2.732811 (1.75435) [-1.55773] -0.017650 (0.30804) [-0.05730] D(M2(-2)) 0.021111 (0.18082) [0.11675] -1.395004 (0.57069) [-2.44442] -12.13906 (7.09733) [-1.71037) -1.411392 (0.62229) [-2.26807] -3.237720 (1.65963) [-1.95087] 0.288689 (0.29141) [ 0.99066] D(M2(-3)) 0.177592 -0.847732 -2.256957 -0.645077 -0.250775 0.290646 n a lu D(CPI(-3)) gm la p yi 0.164485 (0.26977) [ 0.60973) n ll fu m oi 10.14003 (16.7275) [ 0.60619] at nh z z ht vb k jm -0.619265 (0.28818) [-2.14885] om l.c -2.214673 (1.64126) [-1.34937] an Lu n va re (Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010 (Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010 tn to ie gh D(M2(-4)) ~ p D(M2(-5)) w n a lo D(M2(-6)) d (8.31244) [-0.27152) (0.72883) [-0.88509] (1.94377) [-0.12902] (0.34130) [ 0.85158] -0.005206 (0.21145) [-0.02462] -0.293973 (0.66736) [-0.44050] -8.557056 (8.29956) [-1.03103] -0.314817 (0.72770) [-0.43262] -4.764796 (1.94075) [-2.45513] -0.547495 (0.34077) [-1.60663] -0.178668 (0.17036) [-1.04878] -0.466193 (0.53767) [-0.86706] -1.075236 (6.68668) [-0.16080) -1.198547 (0.58628) [-2.04432] -1.190703 (1.56360) [-0.76151] 0.141044 (0.27455) [ 0.51373) 0.266856 (0.16932) [ 1.57608] -1.297838 (0.53438) [-2.42866] -3.670509 (6.64581) [-0.55230] 0.032863 (0.58270) [ 0.05640) -0.594774 (1.55404) [-0.38273) 0.716366 (0.27287) [ 2.62530] 0.052210 (0.26072) [ 0.20025] -6.391355 (10.2336) [-0.62455] -0.710110 (0.89727) [-0.79141] -3.682361 (2.39300) [-1.53881] -0.191650 (0.42018) [-0.45612] -5.342954 (6.90350) [-0.77395] -0.541958 (0.60529) [-0.89536] -1.842106 (1.61430) [-1.14112] -0.214864 (0.28345) [-0.75803] 6.226561 (7.55880) [ 0.82375) 0.400083 (0.66275) [ 0.60367] 0.471887 (1.76754) [ 0.26697) 0.299724 (0.31036) [ 0.96574) 1.325901 (0.61517) [ 2.15535] 0.009540 (0.10802) [ 0.08832] 1.152348 (0.58133) [ 1.98225] 0.002551 (0.10207) [ 0.02499] 1.018678 (0.53136) [1.91713) -0.007427 (0.09330) [-0.07960] D(M2(-8)) -0.403674 (0.17588) [-2.29515] 0.382079 (0.55510) [ 0.68830] D(M2(-9)) -0.190787 (0.19258) [-0.99071) -0.751931 (0.60780) [-1.23714) D(OUTPUT(-1)) 0.053337 (0.06702) [ 0.79580] 0.451137 (0.21153) [ 2.13268] nh 0.504206 (0.23066) [ 2.18592] D(OUTPUT( -2)) 0.055171 (0.06334) [ 0.87106] 0.381736 (0.19990) [ 1.90963) 4.635890 (2.48604) [ 1.86477] 0.458185 (0.21797) [ 2.10201] D(OUTPUT( -3)) 0.050555 (0.05789) [ 0.87326] 0.314156 (0.18272) [ 1.71937] 4.128820 (2.27233) [ 1.81700] 0.387925 (0.19924) [ 1.94707) D(OUTPUT(-4)) 0.023503 (0.05205) [0.45153] 0.267392 (0.16428) [ 1.62765) 3.122907 (2.04306) [ 1.52854] 0.310540 (0.17913) [ 1.73356] D(OUTPUT(-5)) 0.000825 (0.04574) [ 0.01804) 0.216353 (0.14437) [ 1.49855] 2.629888 (1.79550) [ 1.46471] 0.227677 (0.15743) [ 1.44623] 0.807099 (0.41986) [ 1.92232] Lu D(OUTPUT(-6)) -0.009357 (0.04001) [-0.23387] 0.151350 (0.12627) [ 1.19860) 2.385190 (1.57037) [ 1.51887] 0.227063 (0.13769) [ 1.64911) 0.612402 (0.36721) [ 1.66770] -0.024313 (0.06448) [-0.37708] D(OUTPUT(-7)) -0.001050 (0.03535) [-0.02969] 0.097298 (0.11156) [ 0.87213] 1.679994 (1.38745) [ 1.21 085] 0.167361 (0.12165) [ 1.37575] 0.437974 (0.32444) [ 1.34995] -0.027112 (0.05697) [-0.47592] n a lu la p yi u yj th n va ll fu m 5.097161 (2.63074) [ 1.93754) oi at z z k jm ht vb gm 0.887468 (0.47775) [ 1.85761) -0.026953 (0.08389) [-0.32131] om l.c -0.029240 (0.07372) [-0.39663] an (Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010 re ~ n va •- (0.66840) [-1.26831] -0.305314 (0.82287) [-0.37103) D(M2(-7)) ~ (0.21178) [ 0.83858) (Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010 0.004933 (0.02448) [ 0.20153] 0.060195 (0.07726) [ 0.77915] 0.880174 (0.96080) [ 0.91608] 0.094291 (0.08424) [ 1.11929] 0.214729 (0.22467) [ 0.95574] -0.013090 (0.03945) [-0.33182] D(OUTPUT(-9)) 0.007177 (0.01094) [ 0.65615] 0.016970 (0.03452) [ 0.49155] 0.215203 (0.42935) [ 0.50124] 0.049392 (0.03764) [ 1.31205] 0.046674 (0.10040) [ 0.46489] -0.000395 (0.01763) [-0.02243] -0.187619 (0.15415) [-1.21716] -0.274412 (0.48650) [-0.56405] 5.280081 (6.05033) [ 0.87269] 0.712175 (0.53049) [ 1.34249] 1.578024 (1.41480) [ 1.11537] 0.024488 (0.24842) [ 0.09857] -0.082757 (0.12984) [-0.63739] 0.860579 (0.40979) [ 2.1 0007] 4.531014 (5.09626) [ 0.88909] 0.588916 (0.44684) [ 1.31797] 2.070538 (1.19170) [ 1.73747] -0.567825 (0.20925) [-2.71366] -0.331965 (0.20381) [-1.62881] 0.546389 (0.64324) [ 0.84943] 2.664406 (7.99962) [ 0.33307] 0.205566 (0.70140) [ 0.29308] 0.809020 (1.87062) [ 0.43249] -0.331185 (0.32846) [-1.00831] 3.848124 (8.77689) [ 0.43844] 0.539259 (0.76955) [ 0.70075] 2.216942 (2.05237) [ 1.08019] 0.507199 (0.36037) [ 1.40744] -5.250789 (5.79333) [-0.90635] 0.614324 (0.50795) [ 1.20941] -2.293984 (1.35470) [-1.69335] 0.043959 (0.23787) [ 0.18480] 0.122833 (0.58141) [ 0.21127] -3.473716 (1.55062) [-2.24022] -0.469963 (0.27227) [-1.72610] -1.176537 (2.58812) [-0.45459] -0.148596 (0.45444) [-0.32699] 0.384504 (2.00663) [ 0.19162] -0.012106 (0.35234) [-0.03436] p ie • gh tn to D(OUTPUT( -8)) w D(CREDIT(-1)) n a lo d D(CREDIT(-2)) a lu la p yi u yj th D(CREDIT(-3)) D(CREDIT(-5)) -0.016639 (0.14760) [-0.11273] -0.038433 (0.46584) [-0.08250] D(CREDIT(-6)) -0.585765 (0.16894) [-3.46724] 0.582054 (0.53320) [ 1.09161] -6.298023 (6.63116) [-0.94976] D(CREDIT(-7)) -0.615957 (0.28198) [-2.18439] 0.376239 (0.88997) [ 0.42276] 1.151135 (11.0680) [ 0.10401] D(CREDIT(-8)) -0.191568 (0.21863) [-0.87623] 0.146682 (0.69001) [ 0.21258] 3.964698 (8.58128) [ 0.46202] 0.493873 (0.75240) [ 0.65640] D(CREDIT(-9)) 0.010839 (0.09369) [ 0.11569] 0.644614 (0.29571) [2.17991] -0.811897 (3.67753) [-0.22077] 0.374566 (0.32244) [ 1.16165] 1.074394 (0.85995) [ 1.24937] 0.009417 (0.15100) [ 0.06237] D(RATE(-1)) 0.358210 (0.15199) [ 2.35683] -0.374295 (0.47969) [-0.78028] -3.646364 (5.96565) [-0.61123] -0.376436 (0.52306) [-0.71968] -1.348647 (1.39500) [-0.96677] D(RATE(-2)) 0.286297 (0.14517) [ 1.97211] -0.070926 (0.45818) [-0.15480] -3.411325 (5.69817) [-0.59867] -0.198503 (0.49961) [-0.39731] -1.332069 (1.33245) [-0.99971] 0.050009 (0.23396) [ 0.21375] D(RATE(-3)) 0.140897 (0.10774) [ 1.30778] -0.104899 (0.34003) [-0.30850] -3.578754 (4.22878) [-0.84628] -0.288842 (0.37078) [-0.77902] -1.475400 (0.98885) [-1.49203] O.Q16212 (0.17363) [ 0.09337] n -0.033126 (0.22361) [-0.14814] Lu -0.258533 (0.70574) [-0.36633] D(CREDIT(-4)) n va ll fu oi m at nh z z 0.610846 (0.97043) [ 0.62946] k jm ht vb gm om l.c n va re (Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010 an 0.143339 (0.24494) [ 0.58519] (Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010 0.136456 (0.06031) [ 2.26268] -0.118785 (0.19034) [-0.62408] -0.878230 (2.36711) [-0.371 01] -0.187486 (0.20755) [-0.90334] -0.324991 (0.55352) [-0.58714] 0.162494 (0.09719) [ 1.67190] D(RATE(-5)) 0.163766 (0.07379) [ 2.21946] -0.258181 (0.23288) [-1.10865] -1.167175 (2.89618) [-0.40301] 0.038677 (0.25393) [0.15231] -1.118329 (0.67724) [-1.65131] 0.038984 (0.11891) [0.32784] 0.070795 (0.07242) [ 0.97758] 0.137170 (0.22856) [ 0.60014] -1.609754 (2.84250) [-0.56632] -0.224222 (0.24923) [-0.89967] -0.923793 (0.66468) [-1.38982] -0.038465 (0.11671) [-0.32957] -0.097016 (0.15135) [-0.64102] -1.257927 (1.88220) [-0.66833] -0.030807 (0.16503) [-0.18667] -0.484577 (0.44013) [-1.10098] 0.137888 (0.07728) [ 1.78424] -0.116886 (0.17478) [-0.66875] -0.148118 (2.17368) [-0.06814] -0.058791 (0.19059) [-0.30847] -0.632653 (0.50829) [-1.24467] 0.114570 (0.08925) [ 1.28371] -1.813183 (2.76537) [-0.65567] 0.121763 (0.24247) [ 0.50219] -0.886258 (0.64665) [-1.37054] -0.014947 (0.11354) [-0.13164] -24.03590 (46.0563) [-0.52188] -3.367147 (4.03818) [-0.83383] -12.56720 (10.7697) [-1.16690] -0.002099 (1.89103) [-0.00111] -2.817213 (3.84200) [-0.73327] -11.73673 (1 0.2465) [-1.14544] 1.207434 (1.79916) [0.67111] -14.95137 (12.4192) [-1.20390] 0.968720 (2.18065) [ 0.44424] p ie gh tn to D(RATE(-4)) w n D(RATE(-6)) d a lo u yj th D(RATE(-7)) 0.070912 (0.04795) [ 1.47878] p yi 0.131265 (0.05538) [ 2.37030] D(RATE(-9)) 0.022730 (0.07045) [ 0.32263] D(FOREX(-1)) 3.121571 (1.17338) [ 2.66031] 0.518745 (3.70334) [ 0.14007] D(FOREX(-2)) 3.467437 (1.11638) [ 3.1 0596] -1.437419 (3.52343) [-0.40796] -26.33865 (43.8189) [-0.601 08] D(FOREX( -3)) 3.792305 (1.35309) [ 2.80269] -0.996898 (4.27053) [-0.23344] -28.95453 (53.1101) [-0.54518] -2.807061 (4.65664) [-0.60281] D(FOREX( -4)) 2.953611 (1.41298) [ 2.09034] -0.293540 (4.45954) [-0.06582] -38.71901 (55.4607) [-0.69813] -2.128495 (4.86274) [-0.43771] D(FOREX( -5)) 2.340477 (1.02353) [ 2.28666] 1.059611 (3.23040) [ 0.32801] -27.81646 (40.1746) [-0.69239] -2.101559 (3.52247) [-0.59662] -15.90127 (9.39434) [-1.69264] -0.001052 (1.64953) [-0.00064] D(FOREX(-6)) 3.041156 (0.90718) [ 3.35230] -1.171316 (2.86318) [-0.40910] -25.41950 (35.6077) [-0.71388] -2.383446 (3.12205) [-0.76342] -15.11839 (8.32645) [-1.81571] 1.201408 (1.46202) [ 0.82175] D(FOREX(-7)) 2.261803 (1.18559) [ 1.90774] -0.917204 (3.74188) [-0.24512] -38.98622 (46.5356) [-0.83777] 0.052338 (4.08020) [ 0.01283] -16.73014 (10.8818) [-1.53744] 0.906788 (1.91070) [ 0.47458] D(FOREX( -8)) 0.827210 {0.93128) 0.931088 (2.93923) -27.60197 (36.5535) -1.936969 {3.20498) -16.69443 (8.54760) -0.878814 (1.50085) n a lu la D(RATE(-8)) n va 0.123666 (0.22236) [ 0.55615] ll fu oi m at nh z z k jm ht vb gm -0.333889 {2.27716) [-0.14663] om l.c an Lu n va -18.08955 (12.9688) [-1.39485] (Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010 re • (Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010 [ 0.31678) (-0.75511] [-0.60436] (-1.95311) (-0.58554) 0.137358 (0.37705) [ 0.36430] 0.349822 (1.19000) [ 0.29397] -14.82746 (14.7994) [-1.00190] -1.514781 (1.29760) [-1.16738) -7.404856 (3.46066) [-2.13973) -0.421397 (0.60765) (-0.69349) -0.006006 (0.00564) [-1.06399] 0.036135 (0.01782) [ 2.02835] 0.291862 (0.22155) [ 1.31733] 0.034550 (0.01943) [ 1.77859) 0.116616 (0.05181) [ 2.25092] 0.001406 (0.00910) [ 0.15459) 0.980096 0.849611 2.23E-05 0.001575 7.511221 417.6363 -10.36627 -8.423569 0.003560 0.004063 0.941469 0.557764 0.000223 0.004972 2.453626 338.3316 -8.067583 -6.124882 0.009957 0.007477 0.937864 0.530526 0.034416 0.061839 2.302421 164.4082 -3.026326 -1.083624 0.005133 0.090252 0.950612 0.626849 0.000265 0.005422 2.936131 332.3592 -7.894469 -5.951768 0.010994 0.008876 0.969217 0.767420 0.001882 0.014460 4.802917 264.6739 -5.932578 -3.989876 0.001844 0.029984 0.911038 0.327840 5.80E-05 0.002539 1.562141 384.7076 -9.411815 -7.469114 0.001026 0.003097 tn to [ 0.88825] D(FOAEX( -9)) p ie gh c w n 2.42E-28 1.19E-33 2027.956 -47.47698 -34.84942 n va ll fu Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.) Determinant resid covariance Log likelihood Akaike information criterion Schwarz criterion n a lu la p yi u yj th I d a lo A-squared Adj A-squared Sum sq resids S.E equation F-statistic Log likelihood Akaike AIC Schwarz SC Mean dependent S.D dependent oi m • nh APPENDIX 5: GRANGER CAUSALITY TESTS at z z k jm ht vb VEC Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Tests Date: 02/14/11 Time: 20:50 Sample: 2003M12 2010M06 Included observations: 69 9 9 0.0410 0.0312 0.0021 0.0375 0.0024 All 177.7006 45 0.0000 n va 17.53293 18.36050 25.90913 17.80698 25.57990 an D(M2) D(OUTPUT) D(CAEDIT) D(AATE) D(FOAEX) Lu Prob om df l.c Chi-sq i Excluded gm Dependent variable: D(CPI) re ~ Dependent variable: D(M2) Excluded Chi-sq df Prob D(CPI) 7.361719 0.5995 (Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010 (Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010 (Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010(Luận.văn).the.effect.of.money.growth.on.inflation.in.vietnam.from.2004.to.2010