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UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY VIETNAM INSTIUTTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES THE HAGUE THE NETHERLANDS ng hi ep w n VIETNAM- NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS lo ad th yj an lu la ip uy n va THE EFFECT OF WOMEN'S EDUCATION ON FERTILITY IN VIETNAM ll fu n oi m A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of t MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS z z om l.c gm r k LE HOANG THIEN KIM jm ht vb By an n va DR NGUYEN HUU DUNG Lu Academic Supervisor: ··,, re - te CERTIFICATION I certify that the substance of this thesis has not already been submitted for any ng ep hi degree and is not being current submitted for any other degree I certify that to the best of my knowledge any help received in preparing this w n lo thesis and all sources used, have been acknowledged in this thesis ad y th I ju LE HOANG THIEN KIM yi pl n ua al n va ll fu oi m at nh z z jm ht vb k m co l gm • an Lu n va te re ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Firstly, I would like to thank my academic supervisor Dr Nguyen Huu ng hi Dung for his valuable advice, comments and making reference materials available ep to me Particularly, thanks to these worthy instructions and kindly help from him, I w can complete the research n lo ad th yj , I greatly appreciate Mr Truong Thanh Vu for his technique assistance and valuable comments to the study an lu la ip uy Many thanks are respectfully sent to my parents, my husband who are always encourage and sympathize with me va n I would like to thank to all teachers and staffs of the Vietnam- Netherlands ll fu n oi m programme at University of Economics HCM t Finally, I am indebted to Measure DHS Office - ICF Macro, especially z z Bridgette James- data archive administrator for their assistance and permission to ht vb access VDHS 2002 data so that I can complete my thesis k jm l.c gm om " an Lu n va re te 11 TABLE OF CONTENTS ng CERTIFICATION i hi ep A CKN0 WLEDGEMENT ii w TABLE OF CONTENTS iii n lo ad LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES vi th yj ABBREVIATIONS vii uy an lu la ip ABSTRACT viii CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION ! n va 1.1 Problem Statement ll fu 1.2 Research objectives n oi m 1.3 Research questions 1.4 Hypotheses t 1.5 Research Methodology z z 1.6 Structure of the thesis jm ht vb CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW k 2.1 Definitions, concepts related to fertility and its measures gm 2.2 Theoretical framework, empirical studies related to determinants of fertility l.c 2.2.1 Theoretical framework om • 2.2.1.1 Household demand model 12 Lu an 2.2.1.2 Demand- supply framework 16 n va 2.2.2 Empirical studies related to effects of women's education on fertility 20 re 2.3 Summary 25 te CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 26 3.1 Structure of the VDHS 2002 26 111 3.2 Data set 27 3.3 Model specification 28 ng 3.4 Description of variables in the model 29 ep hi 3.4.1 Dependent variable 29 3.4.2 Independent variables 29 w n 3.5 Estimation strategy 34 lo ad 3.5.1 Poisson regression model (PRM) 35 y th 3.5.2 Factor change in E(yJx) 36 ju yi 3.5.3 Percent change in E(yJx) 37 pl ua al 3.6 Chapter summary 37 n CHAPTER FOUR: SOCIOECONOMIC CONTEXT AND PROFILES OF va WOMEN'S FERTILITY 39 n ll fu 4.1 Geography and economy 39 oi m 4.2 Population and family planning policies and programs 41 at nh 4.2.1 Population 41 z 4.2.2 Family Planning Policies and Programs 43 z ht vb 4.3 General characteristics of women's fertility 44 4.4 Differentials in education level of women 46 k jm 4.5 Family planning message 47 gm 4.6 Children ever born 48 l.c Chapter summary 49 om " an Lu CHAPTER FIVE: FACTORS AFFECT WOMEN'S FERTILITY IN VIETNAM 50 5.1 Empirical model 50 IV te re CHAPTER SIX: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 56 n 5.3 Summary 55 va 5.2 Estimation results 50 (Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam 6.1 Conclusions 56 6.2 Recommendations 57 ng 6.3 Further Research 58 hi ep REFERENCES w APPENDIX n lo ad th yj an lu la ip uy n va ll fu t n oi m z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va re te v (Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam (Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES ng hi Table 2.1: Narratives on the determinants offertility ep Table 2.2: Intervening variables in Cochrane's model on education and fertility 19 w n lo Table 4.1: Basic demographic indicators .42 ad th Table 4.2: Distribution of ever-married women by background characteristics yj an lu la ip uy (%), Vietnam 2002 45 Table 4.3: Level of education of ever-married women, Vietnam 2002 (%) .46 Table 4.4: Exposure to family planning messages on radio and television (%) .47 n va ll fu Table 4.5: Children ever born by ever-married women aged 15-49, classified by n oi m place of residence and education level .48 t Table 5.1: Poisson Regression Results- Fertility model 63 z z ht vb Figure 2.1: Key variables and interrelations in a variant of Easterlin 's supply - k jm demand model 19 om l.c gm an Lu n va re te (Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam VI (Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam ABBREVIATIONS Age-specific fertility rate CBR Crude birth rate ng ASFR hi ep Children ever born w CEB n lo General Fertility rate ad GFR th General Statistical Office yj GSO TFR an lu la ip uy PRM Poisson regression model Total fertility rate va U.S Agency for International Development VDHS Vietnam Demographic and Health Survey n US AID ll fu t n oi m z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va re te / (Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam Vll (Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam ABSTRACT There are numerous studies indicate that women's education plays an ng important role in number of children ever born This thesis aims to explore the hi ep effect of women's education on fertility in Vietnam by using the 2002 Vietnam w Demographic and Health Survey Given the characteristics of observed fertility n lo ad pattern, the study applied a count data model, namely, Poisson regression to th yj examine the effects of women's education and other determinants on fertility uy an lu la ip The major finding of the study is that women's education poses a strong effect to reduce children born in Vietnam The higher the educated women, the n va lower the expected number of children Similarly, education level of husband or ll fu partners also influence the change in the number of children Other determinants of n oi m importance in the study show that the higher the age and age of giving first birth, t the lower the number of children ever born Public program and knowledge such as z z of ovulatory cycle and family planning positively help reducing fertility Women ht vb live in the rural areas still have a higher number of children than that of women in jm k the urban areas l.c gm Recommendation for public policies and women health governance in om Vietnam should focus more on the education for low-educated women, improving an Lu related knowledge of family planning, especially in the rural areas n va re te vm (Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam (Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION ng ep hi 1.1 Problem Statement Population growth and socioeconomic development are an important issue to w Vietnamese policy makers and development planners Vietnam has clearly made n lo ad significant progress in slowing its rapidly population growth The decline in fertility y th has been one of the most important demographic changes in recent years The key ju yi element behind the change in population in Vietnam is considered as a result at pl ua al fertility level Many policies to reduce population growth received increasing n n va attention of the government and efforts to extend coverage of birth control services ll fu In January 1993, the Communist Party Central Committee for the first time oi m approved a resolution on population and family planning The resolution proposed nh at the objective of "applying small-sized family," and recommended that "each family z z should have one or two children" in order to lower fertility and stabilize population ht vb k jm At the micro level, high population growth leads to a more serious issue of l.c gm poverty Poorer families, especially women bear the burden of a large number of children with fewer resources per child, further adding to the spiral of poverty Low om levels of income among the poorer families with many children leads to inadequate an Lu food availability, which perpetuates malnutrition, which in tum accelerates high (Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam te re children Among poorer families, beyond a certain family size, additional children n widely reviewed the relationship between family size, education and the health of va levels of infant mortality Studies by Ernst and Angst (1983), King (1985) have (Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam statistically significant at the five percent level Only two variables, namely, hus_ edprimar and hus_ edsecond are not statistically significant h ng ie The results show that women's education significantly reduces the number of p children born per women All the measures of women's education are strongly n w a lo significant and the coefficients signs are negative If a woman has only primary d education, the expected number of children born decreases by a factor of 0.837, th u yj holding all other variables constant If a woman has secondary education, the p yi a lu la expected number of children born decreases by a factor of 0.768, and if a woman has higher education, the expected number of children born decrease by a factor of n va n 0.700, holding all other variables constant For a standard deviation increase in fu m ll women education , the number of children born decreases by a factor of 0.924, n oi 0.880 and 0.934 for primary, secondary and higher education respectively, holding tz all variables constant Another interpretation of the result is that for a woman z ht vb holding primary, secondary and higher education, the expected number of children k jm born decreases by 16 percent, 23 percent, 30 percent respectively (see Table A3 in gm the appendix) The results are consistent with previous studies [Ainsworth et om l.c a/.(1996), Martin and Juarez (1995)] However, the negative magnitude of the an Lu coefficient of women with higher education is higher than women's primary and secondary schoolings Thus, the negative effect of women's education on fertility n va gets larger and larger with the increase of education levels t re lower number of children born per woman The coefficient on know variable is 51 (Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam e The knowledge of ovulatory cycle (know) is also strongly significant to (Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam - - negative that means the knowledge of ovulatory cycle increases, the number of children per woman will decrease The effect of this coefficient on the expected ng hi number of children shows that if a woman has knowledge of ovulatory cycle, the ep expected number of children born decreases by a factor of 0.958, holding all other w n variables constant In other words, the expected number of children will decrease by lo ad 4.2 percent This is an important finding because women may control reproductive th yj behavior better when they have better knowledge of ovulatory cycle an lu la ip uy Family planning programs are very important in explaining a country's fertility rate and are expected to have a negative effect on fertility The variable plan va n is significant and has expected sign The marginal effect of the coefficient indicates ll fu that if a woman heard from local family planning program, the expected number of n oi m children born decreases by a factor of 0.961 or 3.9 percent, holding all other t variables constant We can explain for this result as local family planning program z z ht vb was launched in 1993 by the government and it is interested to reduce large family k jm size in Vietnam gm The coefficient of place is negative and significant at one percent level, l.c om denoting a negative relationship between women who live in urban areas and an Lu number children ever born per women The marginal probability suggests if a (Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam 52 te women The result is also consistent with Adelman (1963), who found out that re et al (1996), who determined that urban women have lower fertility than rural n factor of0.818, holding all other variables constant This is supported by Ainsworth va woman live in rural area, the expected number of children born decreases by a (Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam "socioeconomic phenomena associated with the urbanization process tend to reduce birth rates in the long run" ng hi The variable age_birth has a negative coefficient and is significant at one ep percent level The result shows that if the age at first birth is late, the expected w n number of children born decreases by a factor of 0.9437, holding all other variables lo ad constant th yj an lu la ip uy The variables hus_ edprimar, hus_ edsecond are not statistically significant, only hus_ eduhigher is significant If a husband has a higher education, the expected number of children born decreases by a factor of 0.885 or 11.5 percent, holding all va n other variables constant Higher educated men tend to have fewer children because ll fu n oi m they may understand the sacrifice and bearing those women have to when they have pregnancy t z Finally, the coefficients and marginal change for age groups also have z jm ht vb expected effects Numbers of children ever born increases as women become older k The finding is similar to descriptive analysis in Chapter four gm l.c Table 5.1 Poisson Regression Results- Fertility model om Dependent variable (fert) is the number of children born per woman Parameters Robust Exponent Perentage Standard error of beta change in Exp(b) dependent 53 0.837 (Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam -16.3 te 0.025 re -0.178* n edprimar va variable an Lu Variables (Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam 0.768 -23.2 eduhigher -0.356* 0.038 0.700 -30.0 know -0.043* 0.013 0.958 -4.2 plan -0.040** 0.018 0.961 -3.9 age_birth -0.058* 0.002 0.944 -5.6 -0.201 * 0.013 0.818 -18.2 -0.006 0.030 0.994 -0.6 0.030 0.963 -3.7 -0.122* 0.039 0.885 -11.5 0.033 1.484 48.4 2.247 124.7 3.033 203.3 3.872 287.2 4.780 378.0 p 0.026 la ie -0.264* d h ng • edsecond n w a lo th place u yj hus_ edprimar -0.038 n a lu hus_ eduhigher p yi hus edsecond n va 0.395* age2529 0.809* age3034 1.109* 0.030 age3539 1.354* 0.031 age4044 1.565* 0.031 age4549 1.721 * 0.032 cons 1.324* 0.048 m ll fu age2024 0.031 tz n oi z ht vb 5.594 k jm 459.4 gm an exp(b*SD of X)= change in expected count for SD increase in X Lu exp(b) = factor change in expected count for unit increase in X om l.c **denoted significant at 5% level Notes: n=5381; * denoted significant at 1% level va n SDofX = standard deviation of X e t re (Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam 54 (Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam 5.3 Summary The chapter presented and analyzed the research findings on effect of women ng hi education on fertility in Vietnam using the data set from VDHS2002 A reduced- ep form equation is estimated using Poisson regression The study reveals some w n important findings First, women education has a strong negative effect on fertility lo ad as expected The number of children born increases by age of women and women th yj who live in rural areas have more children than women living in the urban From uy an lu la ip these findings, some recommendations will be suggested in the next chapter n va ll fu t n oi m z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va re te (Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam 55 (Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam CHAPTER SIX CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS h ng 6.1 Conclusions ie p This study has examined the effects of women's education and other factors w on fertility in Vietnam It finds strong support for negative correlation between n ad lo women's education and fertility The findings answer very important question of th yj how women's education, which rarely addressed issues relevant to reproductive and uy ip contraception behavior, influences fertility According to Becker et a! (1992) la an lu women's education raises their labor participation which in tum raises their fu women's time value n va earnings, "and hence greater investment in market-oriented skills" which increases oi m ll The empirical results are consistent with previous results on household nh at fertility decision in the literature review and corroborate the importance of women's z z education in family fertility decision The research has used Poisson regression ht vb k jm model based on count data The results show that estimated coefficients of all gm variables on number of children ever born have the expected sign and both women's om l.c education and husbands' higher education have statistically significant effects on number of children born an Lu Among the socio-economic variables in the model, women's education is n va found to be the most powerful predictor of fertility decline Weeks (2005) who making, encourages the diffusion of an innovation such as fertility limitation, offers 56 (Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam te re claims that an increase in education is strongly associated with rational decision- (Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam to people a view of a world that expands their horizon beyond the boundaries of traditional society to re-evaluate the role of women in society ng hi The findings also show that women's education pose significant effect to the ep number of children born Results from Poisson regression indicate that women w n holding higher education , residence in urban areas has significant negative effect lo ad on fertility Higher educated women should be able to implement their fertility th yj an lu la ip uy preferences including their higher degree of autonomy in reproductive decisionmaking as well as cooperation from their husbands The educated women are likely to live in urban areas and they have lower fertility due to access of having family va n planning services and other modernization effects Hence, the government should ll fu take necessary steps to improve the family planning services in the rural areas t n oi m 6.2 Recommendations z From the result, I emphasize the importance of improving access to education z ht vb as a way of empowering women and creating more health and family planning jm k framework, especially in rural areas where the effects of education are stronger gm om l.c We find that education has a strong effect for a woman to decide the number of children she has Therefore, investment to women's education must be the Lu an objective of fertility reduction To execute this purpose, there are some n va recommendations drawn from this study as follows: 57 (Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam te expanding family programs The promotion of women's education will empower re The government should put more efforts in promoting women's education, (Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam women to make individual decisions and increase their participation in employment where they are exposed to ideas and attitudes to desire smaller family ng hi • ep Providing the employment and earning opportunities for educated young women Besides, the government should have regulations protect women from w n lo gender inequality in all aspects of society, beginning with childhood ad th 6.3 Further Research yj uy an lu la ip The findings of the study give rise to implication for future research on • fertility in Vietnam might be extended First, exogenous measures of the quality of n va education are not among those available in the individual VDHS data set The ll fu unavailability of that information forces this study and previous study to use either • n oi m year of schooling or education levels to capture the effect of education on fertility t The quality of education depends on a variety of factors including a country's z z education system Additional research needs to take a closer look at how different ht vb education quality behaves differently in explaining fertility in developing countries jm k where there is more diversity in the quality of education gm om l.c Moreover, VDHS also does not collect on income or household resources So we are difficult to find the effect of income and fertility supporting the quality- Lu an quantity theory The association between household income and number of children te 58 (Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam re to their study purpose n fertility rate Researchers should conduct a survey for themselves or modified data va born per woman is probably the most important economic explanation of decreasing (Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam REFERENCES ng Adelman, Irma June (1963) An econometric analysis of population growth The ep hi • American Economic Review, 53(3), pp 314-339 w Ainsworth 1989 Socioeconomic Determiants of Fertility in Co6te d'Ivoire Living Standard Measurement Study, Working Paper No.53 Washington DC: The World n lo Bank ad ju y th Ainsworth, Martha & Beegle, Kathleen & Nyamete, Andrew, 1996 "The Impact of Women's Schooling on Fertility and Contraceptive Use: A Study of Fourteen SubSaharan 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(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam Sevilla, Jaypee 2007 Fertility and relative cohort size h ng Available at: ie p n w http://www.framtidsstudier.se/filebank/files/20071005$123330$fil$no7STOtzOGE5 7T07TmPI.pdf, [accessed 12 May 2009] a lo d Tran K.D.2001 Human Resource Development, Coursebook HCMC: University of Economics th u yj p yi UNFP A Vietnam 2008, Vietnam population 2007 Ha noi: Luck House Graphics LTD la n a lu Van de Kaa, D.J (1996) Anchored narratives: The story and findings of half a century of research into the determinants of fertility Population Studies, 50: 389432 va n Vietnam Demographic and Health Survey 2002 Weeks, J.R 2005 Population, an introduction to concepts and issues, ninth edition, tz n oi Wadsworth, USA, 675 p m ll " fu • z Weinberger, M.B 1987 The relationship between women's education and fertility: selected findings from the World Fertility Surveys, international family planning perspectives 1: 35-46 ht vb k jm Willis Robert 1973 A New Approach to the Economic Theory of Fertility Behavior Journal ofPolitical Economy, vol 81: S279-S288 gm om l.c Winkelmann R 1997 Econometric Analysis of Count Dat and (ed.), Springer Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, New York an Lu World Fertility Report 2003 Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, United Nations n va t re e '!' (Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam 62 (Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam APPENDIX h ng Al Poisson regression ie p global xlist edprimar edsecond eduhigher know plan age_birth place hus_edprimar hus_edsecond hus_eduhigher age2024 age2529 age3034 age3539 age4044 age4549 Hoi quy Poisson n w **** a lo poisson fert $xlist, vce(robust) d log pseudolikelihood -8268.6616 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood -8268.5945 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood -8268.5945 th Iteration 0: u yj p yi n a lu la Poisson regression n va Log pseudolikelihood = -8268.5945 8222.69 Prob > chi2 0.0000 Pseudo R2 0.1297 fert I I Coef Robust Std Err n oi z [95% Conf Interval] P>lzl -+ edprimar -.1778293 0248673 -7.15 0.000 -.2265684 -.1290903 edsecond -.263644 0259178 -10.17 0.000 -.3144418 -.2128461 eduhigher -.3565376 0377163 -9.45 z tz -.4304602 -.282615 know -.0431927 0131534 -3.28 0.001 - 0689728 -.0174126 plan -.0401104 0179302 -2.24 0.025 -.075253 -.0049679 age_birth -.0579904 0015693 -36.95 0.000 -.0610663 - 0549146 place -.2013016 013336 -15.09 0.000 -.2274397 -.1751636 hus_edprimar -.0056176 0303507 -0.19 0.853 -.0651038 0538687 hus edsecond -.0381114 0305449 -1.25 0.212 -.0979783 0217555 hus_eduhig-r -.12205 0391771 -3.12 0.002 -.1988357 -.0452644 age2024 3945823 0327207 12.06 0.000 3304508 4587138 age2529 8094472 0307576 26.32 0.000 7491634 8697311 age3034 1.109568 0305992 36.26 0.000 049595 1.169541 age3539 353828 0310706 43.57 0.000 1.292931 1.414726 age4044 564484 0313031 49.98 0.000 503131 625837 age4549 721734 0318651 54.03 0.000 65928 784189 cons 1.324691 0481697 27.50 0.000 1.23028 419102 0.000 k jm ht vb om l.c gm n va t re e 63 an (Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam Lu ! Wald chi2(16) m ll \ 5381 fu ã Number of obs (Luỏưn.vn).the.effect.of.ặomens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Luỏưn.vn).the.effect.of.ặomens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Luỏưn.vn).the.effect.of.ặomens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Luỏưn.vn).the.effect.of.ặomens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Luỏưn.vn).the.effect.of.ặomens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Luỏưn.vn).the.effect.of.ặomens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Luỏưn.vn).the.effect.of.ặomens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Luỏưn.vn).the.effect.of.ặomens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam A2 Factor change h ng ie poisson (N=5381) : Factor Change in Expected Count p ' listcoef, help Observed SD: 1.5210555 w n a lo fert I b z P>lzl e b e bStdX SDofX d -+ 0.17783 -7.151 0.000 8371 0.9237 0.4463 edsecond -0.26364 -10.172 0.000 0.7682 0.8802 0.4838 eduhigher -0.35654 -9.453 0.000 0.7001 0.9343 0.1905 -0.04319 -3.284 0.001 0.9577 0.9814 0.4346 th edprimar u yj -0.04011 -2.237 0.025 0.9607 9871 0.3240 age_birth -0.05799 -36.952 0.000 0.9437 8116 3.5997 place -0.20130 -15.095 0.000 0.8177 0.9189 0.4203 hus _edprimar -0.00562 -0.185 n 0.853 0.9944 0.9977 0.4105 hus edsecond -0.03811 -1.248 fu 0.212 0.9626 0.9825 0.4635 hus_eduhig-r -0.12205 -3 115 0.002 0.8851 0.9729 0.2255 age2024 0.39458 12.059 0.000 1.1144 0.2746 age2529 0.80945 26.317 n oi 1.4838 0.000 2.2467 1.3579 0.3780 age3034 1.10957 36.261 0.000 3.0330 5476 0.3936 age3539 35383 43.573 0.000 8722 1.7295 0.4047 age4044 56448 49.979 0.000 4.7802 1.8549 3949 age4549 72173 54.032 0.000 5.5942 n plan a lu la va m ll p yi know gm p-value for z-test om l.c exp(b) = factor change in expected count for unit increase in X exp(b*SD of X) = change in expected count for SD increase in X Lu SDofX k e bStdX 0.3565 jm P>lzl e b ht z-score for test of b=O vb z z raw coefficient tz b 8475 standard deviation of X an n va t re e (Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam 64 (Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam (Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam(Lºn.văn).the.effect.of.Ỉ°omens.education.on.fertility.in.vietnam
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