分类号 F275 UDC 005.1 密 级 论文编号 硕士学位论文 股权结构、成长性与公司风险 论文题目： 研 究 生： 邓俊秀、DANGTUANTU 导 师： 黄晓波 专 业： 会计学 研究方向： 财务管理 2018 年 月 Tai ngay!!! Ban co the xoa dong chu nay!!! 分类号:F275 学校代码：10512 学 号 ：2015181112000001 秘密☆ 年 湖北大学硕士学位论文 股权结构、成长性与公司风险 作者姓名：邓俊秀 指导教师姓名、职称：黄晓波 教授 申请学位类别：管理学 学科专业名称：会计学 研究方向：财务管理 论文提交日期: 论文答辩日期: 学位授予单位：湖北大学 学位授予日期： 答辩委员会主席： Ownership Structure，Growth and Corporate Risk A Thesis Submitted for the Degree of Master Candidate：Deng Junxiu Supervisor：Huang Xiaobo Hu Bei University Wuhan，China 学位论文使用授权书 本论文作者完全了解学校关于保存、使用学位论文的管理办法及规定，即学校有权保留并向国家 有关部门或机构送交论文的复印件和电子版，允许论文被查阅和借阅。本人完全同意《中国博士学位论 文全文数据库出版章程》、《中国优秀硕士学位论文全文数据库出版章程》(以下简称“章程”，见 www.cnki.net)，愿意将本人的学位论文提交中国学术期刊（光盘版）电子杂志社在《中国博士学位论 文全文数据库》、《中国优秀硕士学位论文全文数据库》中全文发表和以电子、网络及其他数字媒体形 式公开出版，并同意编入 CNKI《中国知识资源总库》，在《中国博硕士学位论文评价数据库》中使用和 在互联网上传播，同意按“章程”规定享受相关权益（请作者直接与杂志社联系，联系人：栗老师；电 话：010－62791817、62793176、62701179；通讯地址：北京 清华大学邮局 84-48 信箱 采编中心 邮 编：100084 ）。 本授权书签署一式三份，交湖北大学学位评定委员会办公室。 导师签名： 学位论文作者签名： 年 月 日 年 月 日 湖北大学研究生学位论文作者信息 论文题目 姓 名 论文级别 学号 博士□ 答辩日期 硕士□ √ 学院 专业 联系电话 作者 E_mail 作者通信地址(含邮编)： 备注： 年 月 日 注：本论文如需保密，保密级别是 适用于本授权书) ，解密时间是 年 月。(保密学位论文在解密后 股权结构、成长性与公司风险 摘 要 中国特色社会主义进入了新时代，中国经济发展也进入了新时代，中国经济已由高速 增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段。所以，企业应更好地管控风险，不断优化公司治理结构， 追求可持续增长。本文以 2003-2015 年中国沪、深两市的制造业上市公司为样本，对股权 结构、成长性与公司风险进行统计分析和实证检验。 通过统计分析发现： （1）制造业上市公司的风险呈波浪型变化，变化幅度不大，总体 上呈下降的趋势。2003-2015 年财务风险、经营风险和总风险的平均值，上海证券交易所 都大于深圳证券交易所。 （2）上海证券交易所上市公司风险水平有一些起伏，但变化比较 平缓。从 2003 到 2007 年，财务风险、经营风险和总风险大体上呈缓慢上升趋势，2008 年 急剧上升，从 2008 年到 2010 年呈缓慢下降趋势，从 2011 年到 2013 年又大体上呈缓慢上 升趋势，从 2013 年到 2015 年又呈下降趋势。 （3）深圳证券交易所财务风险、经营风险和 总风险的波动幅度较大，大于上海证券交易所的波动幅度。总体上看，2003-2010 年间财 务风险、经营风险和总风险呈下降趋势，2010-2014 年间呈上升趋势，2014-2015 年间呈下 降趋势。 通过全部样本回归分析发现： （1）对财务风险的影响。高管持股越多，财务风险越小； A 流通股比例越大，财务风险越大；股权集中度越大，财务风险越小；股权制衡度越大， 财务风险越小；成长性越好，财务风险越小。（2）对经营风险的影响。未流通股份比例越 大，经营风险越小；国有股比例越大，经营风险越大；股权集中度越大，经营风险越小； 股权制衡度越大，经营风险越小；成长性越好，经营风险越小。（3）对总风险的影响。未 流通股份比例越大，总风险越小；国有股比例越大，总风险越大；高管持股越多，总风险 越小；A 股流通股比例越高，公司风险越大；股权集中度越大，总风险越小；股权制衡度 越大，总风险越小；成长性越好，总风险越小。 I 通过分别对国有样本和非国有样本进行分组回归发现： （1）国有样本和非国有样本回 归分析结果存在一些差异，回归模型对非国有企业具有更强的解释能力。 （2）国有样本回 归分析结果与全部样本回归分析结果差别较大，非国有样本回归分析结果与全部样本回归 分析结果差别较小，全部样本回归分析结果更适用于非国有企业。 本文的实证研究发现，可以为控制上市公司风险、提高上市公司质量提供一些经验借 鉴。第一，深化企业所有制改革，逐步降低国有股比例。第二，深化企业经营机制改革， 大力推行股权激励。第三，优化股权结构，完善公司治理。第四，创造条件，促进企业成 长。 【关键词】：股权结构；成长性；财务风险；经营风险；总风险 II Ownership Structure，Growth and Corporate Risk Abstract Socialism with distinct Chinese characteristics has entered a new era China's economic development has also entered a new era China's economy has shifted from high speed growth stage to high quality development stage Therefore，the enterprise should control the risk better， continuously optimizing the corporate governance structure and pursuing sustainable development This paper uses the samples of listed manufacturing companies of two cities， Shanghai and Shenzhen，from 2003 to 2015 in order to statistically analyze and empirically test on equity structure，growth and corporate risk The statistical analysis showed that: (1) the risk of the listed companies in the manufacturing industry has a wave type change The change is not large，and the trend of the listed companies is declining in general The average value of financial risk，operating risk and total risk at the Shanghai stock exchange is larger than the Shenzhen Stock Exchange during the period of time from 2003 to 2015 (2) There are some ups and downs in the risk level of the listed companies on the Shanghai Stock Exchange，but the change is relatively gentle From 2003 to 2007，financial risks，operating risks and total risks showed a slow upward trend that increased sharply in 2008， showed a slow downward trend from 2008 to 2010 and a downward trend from 2013 to 2015.(3) The volatility of the financial risk，operating risk and total risk of the Shenzhen stock exchange is larger than the volatility of the Shanghai Stock Exchange The financial risk，the operating risk and the total risk showed a downward trend from 2003 to 2010，a upward trend from 2010 to 2014，a downward trend from 2014-2015 The regression analysis of all samples showed that : (1) The more the executives hold，the smaller the financial risk The greater the proportion of A shares，the greater the financial risk III The greater the concentration of equity，the smaller the financial risk，the greater the balance of equity，the smaller the financial risk，the better the growth，the smaller the financial risk.(2) The larger the proportion of untradeable shares，the smaller the operating risk; the greater the proportion of state-owned shares，the greater the operating risk; the greater the ownership concentration，the smaller the operating risk; the greater the equity balance and the less operational risk; the better the growth，the smaller the operating risk.(3) Non tradable shares and the greater the proportion of the total risk is small; the greater the proportion of state-owned shares，the total risk is big; executives holding more total risk is smaller; the higher the proportion of tradable shares of A stock company，the greater the risk; equity concentration increases，the total risk is small; the greater the equity restriction，the total risk the smaller the better growth in total; the smaller the risk By grouping regression of state-owned and non-state-owned samples showed that: (1) there are some differences between the regression analysis results of state-owned and non-state-owned samples， regression model show a stronger explanatory power for non-state-owned enterprises (2) The result of the regression analysis between the state-owned sample and the regression analysis of all the samples is quite different，the result of non state sample regression analysis is less different from the result of all sample regression analysis，the results of all sample regression analysis are more applicable to non- state owned enterprises The findings of this paper can provide some experiences for controlling the risk of listed companies and improving the quality of listed companies First，we should deepen the reform of the ownership of enterprises and gradually reduce the proportion of state-owned shares Second， deepen the reform of enterprise management mechanism and vigorously promote equity incentive Third，optimize the ownership structure and improve corporate governance Fourth，create conditions to promote the growth of enterprises 【Keywords】 ：Ownership structure; growth; financial risk; operating risk; total risk IV 参考文献 Structure[J] Social Science Electronic Publishing，1976，3(4):305-360 [20] Sanford J Grossman and Oliver D Hart ，Oliver Takeover Bids，The Free-Rider Problem，and the Theory of the Corporation[J] The Bell Journal of Economics，1980，11(1):42-64 [21] Cho M H Ownership Structure，Investment，and the Corporate Value: An Empirical Analysis[J] Journal of Financial Economics，1998，47(1):103-121 [22] Clifford G Holderness，Randall S Kroszner，Dennis P Sheehan Were the Good Old Days That Good? Changes in Managerial Stock Ownership since the Great Depression[J] The Journal of Finance，1999， 54(2):435-469 [23] David L Kang， Aege B Sorensen Ownership Organization And Firm Performance[J] Annual Review of Sociology，1999，25(1):121-144 [24] Jahmani Y，Ansari M Managerial Ownership，Risk and Corporate Performance[J] International Journal of Commerce & Management，2006，16(2):86-94 [25] Al‐Najjar B，Taylor P The Relationship between Capital Structure and Ownership Structure[J] Managerial Finance，2008，34(12):919-933 [26] Paligorova T，Xu Z Complex Ownership and Capital Structure[C] China International Conference in Finance，2009:701-716 [27] Ekramy Said Mokhtar，Howard Mellett Competition，Corporate Governance，Ownership Structure and Risk Reporting[J].Managerial Auditing Journal，2013，28（9） ：838-865 [28] Dongyun Lin，John Jahera，and Keven Yost Cross-border Bank Mergers and Acquisitions: What Factors Pull and Push Banks Together?[J].Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies，2013， 16(4):1-23 [29] Stepanov S，Suvorov A Agency Problem and Ownership Structure: Outside Blockholder as a Signal [J] Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization，2017(133):87-107 [30] Ducassy I，Montandrau S Corporate Social Performance，Ownership Structure，and Corporate Governance in France[J] Research in International Business & Finance，2015，34(5):383-396 [31] Lozano M B，Martínez B，Pindado J Corporate Governance，Ownership and Firm Value: Drivers of Ownership as a Good Corporate Governance Mechanism[J] International Business Review，2016， 25(6):1333-1343 31 湖北大学硕士学位论文 [32] Larry Lang，Eli Ofek，Rene M Stulz Leverage ，Investment and Firm Growth [J] Journal of Financial Economics，1996，40 (1): 3-29 [33] Jonathan Berk，Richard C Green，Vasant Naik Optimal Investment，Growth Options，and Security Returns [J] The Journal of Finance，1999，54(5): 1553 – 1608 [34] Kimberly Frank The effect of growth on the value relevance of accounting data[J] Journal of Bussiness Research，2002，55(1): 69-78 [35] Ramezani C A，Soenen L，Jung A Growth，Corporate Profitability and Value Creation [J].Financial Analyst Journal，2002，46(6): 56-67 [36] Antonio E Bernado，Bhagwan Chowdhry，and Amit Goyal Growth Options，Beta，and the Cost of Capital [J] Financial Management，2007，36 (2): 1-13 32 附 录 附 录： 附表 4-1 总样本统计分析原始输出表 附表 4-2 上海证券交易样本统计分析原始输出表 附表 4-2 深圳证券交易样本统计分析原始输出表 33 湖北大学硕士学位论文 附表 5-2 描述性统计分析原始输出结果 logout, save(2) excel replace: /// > tabstat dfl dol dtl wlt gyg gjgl aglt wzzb zhd zsr kzr zcds,stats(mean max sd > p50) col(s) f(%6.4f) variable mean max sd p50 dfl dol dtl wlt gyg gjgl aglt wzzb zhd zsr kzr zcds 1.3458 1.4874 2.2160 0.3676 0.1153 0.0771 0.6113 14.2382 0.7988 0.1402 0.4338 21.5534 0.6073 0.5309 0.2224 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.2030 0.2304 0.0457 -0.2468 0.0000 19.9861 3.6126 2.9136 8.4557 0.7500 0.5997 0.5091 1.0000 50.1800 1.7620 0.7215 1.0000 23.7263 0.7129 0.5503 1.9574 0.2768 0.1988 0.1553 0.2808 15.9686 0.5562 0.2435 0.4956 1.0096 1.0927 1.3498 1.5075 0.4023 0.0000 0.0000 0.5776 5.8503 0.7531 0.1009 0.0000 21.4364 34 附 录 附表 5-3 总样本相关系数及其显著性原始输出结果 logout, save(2) excel replace: ///ẽạỉÃệẻử ớ6-3 > pwcorr_a dfl dol dtl wlt gyg gjgl aglt wzzb zhd zsr kzr zcds year,sig dfl dol dfl 1.000 dol 0.451*** 0.0000 1.000 dtl 0.908*** 0.0000 0.660*** 0.0000 wlt gyg gjgl dtl wlt 0.071*** 0.0000 gjgl aglt 1.000 -0.135*** -0.112*** -0.144*** 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.060*** 0.0000 gyg 0.069*** 0.0000 -0.157*** -0.111*** -0.150*** 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 1.000 0.377*** 0.0000 1.000 0.346*** -0.268*** 0.0000 0.0000 1.000 aglt 0.131*** 0.0000 0.106*** 0.0000 0.138*** -0.962*** -0.385*** -0.314*** 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 1.000 wzzb 0.065*** 0.0000 0.073*** 0.0000 0.081*** -0.762*** -0.338*** -0.242*** 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.722*** 0.0000 zhd -0.068*** -0.083*** -0.079*** 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.515*** 0.0000 0.200*** 0.0000 0.183*** -0.489*** 0.0000 0.0000 zsr -0.033*** -0.042*** -0.062*** 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.106*** 0.0000 0.108*** -0.023*** -0.099*** 0.0000 0.0058 0.0000 kzr 0.127*** 0.0000 0.122*** 0.0000 0.147*** -0.156*** 0.0000 0.0000 0.565*** -0.419*** 0.0000 0.0000 0.118*** 0.0000 zcds 0.133*** 0.0000 0.096*** 0.0000 0.123*** -0.287*** 0.0000 0.0000 0.042*** -0.209*** 0.0000 0.0000 0.231*** 0.0000 year -0.062*** -0.013 0.0000 0.1174 wzzb wzzb zhd -0.038*** -0.400*** -0.565*** 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 zsr kzr zcds 0.303*** 0.0000 year 1.000 zhd -0.683*** 0.0000 1.000 zsr -0.090*** 0.0000 0.075*** 0.0000 1.000 kzr 0.138*** -0.106*** 0.0000 0.0000 0.019** 0.0234 1.000 zcds 0.344*** -0.263*** 0.0000 0.0000 0.075*** 0.0000 0.230*** 0.0000 year 0.428*** -0.322*** -0.161*** -0.309*** 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 35 1.000 0.204*** 0.0000 1.000 0.412*** 0.0000 湖北大学硕士学位论文 附表 5-4 被解释变量为 DFL 的回归分析原始输出结果 "C:\Users\Lenovo\AppData\Local\Temp\STD01000000.tmp" xi:reg dfl wlt gyg gjgl aglt wzzb zhd zsr kzr zcds i.year i.year _Iyear_2003-2015 (naturally coded; _Iyear_2003 omitted) Source SS df MS Model Residual 435.789444 21 20.7518783 6747.26568 14111 478156451 Total 7183.05513 14132 508282984 dfl Coef wlt gyg gjgl aglt wzzb zhd zsr kzr zcds _Iyear_2004 _Iyear_2005 _Iyear_2006 _Iyear_2007 _Iyear_2008 _Iyear_2009 _Iyear_2010 _Iyear_2011 _Iyear_2012 _Iyear_2013 _Iyear_2014 _Iyear_2015 _cons -.1231679 0364091 -.1485145 3811244 -.0048395 -.05541 -.1480922 0364164 0886712 0109976 -.0268164 -.0069818 -.0690773 -.0568569 -.1881854 -.2188753 -.2225114 -.2151415 -.2016638 -.1806377 -.2979236 -.4661201 Std Err .0865233 0475245 0498379 0783553 0006909 0144406 0249523 0167713 0066137 0386568 0386656 0381664 0376944 0376992 0382797 0371699 037161 0373541 0376649 0376168 0374484 1722228 t -1.42 0.77 -2.98 4.86 -7.01 -3.84 -5.94 2.17 13.41 0.28 -0.69 -0.18 -1.83 -1.51 -4.92 -5.89 -5.99 -5.76 -5.35 -4.80 -7.96 -2.71 36 Number of obs F( 21, 14111) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE P>|t| 0.155 0.444 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.030 0.000 0.776 0.488 0.855 0.067 0.132 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.007 = = = = = = 14133 43.40 0.0000 0.0607 0.0593 69149 [95% Conf Interval] -.2927649 -.0567452 -.2462034 2275377 -.0061937 -.0837154 -.1970019 0035424 0757074 -.0647749 -.1026061 -.0817931 -.1429634 -.1307523 -.2632187 -.2917333 -.295352 -.2883604 -.275492 -.2543716 -.3713275 -.8036995 0464291 1295635 -.0508256 5347112 -.0034853 -.0271046 -.0991824 0692904 101635 0867701 0489733 0678294 0048087 0170384 -.1131521 -.1460173 -.1496709 -.1419226 -.1278355 -.1069038 -.2245198 -.1285406 附 录 附表 5-4 被解释变量为 DOL 的回归分析原始输出结果 xi:reg dol wlt gyg gjgl aglt wzzb zhd zsr kzr zcds i.year i.year _Iyear_2003-2015 (naturally coded; _Iyear_2003 omitted) Source SS df MS Model Residual 177.038415 21 8.43040071 4102.06775 14111 290700003 Total 4279.10616 14132 302795511 dol Coef wlt gyg gjgl aglt wzzb zhd zsr kzr zcds _Iyear_2004 _Iyear_2005 _Iyear_2006 _Iyear_2007 _Iyear_2008 _Iyear_2009 _Iyear_2010 _Iyear_2011 _Iyear_2012 _Iyear_2013 _Iyear_2014 _Iyear_2015 _cons -.2010397 1722331 -.0415 0926275 -.0025773 -.0590922 -.0966279 0454756 0323073 -.0080299 -.0092954 -.0054103 -.121291 -.1162354 -.1227275 -.1368701 -.1458559 -.1012127 -.0731833 -.0448727 -.0796408 9513488 Std Err .0674637 0370557 0388595 061095 0005387 0112596 0194557 0130769 0051568 0301414 0301483 029759 029391 0293947 0298474 0289821 0289751 0291256 029368 0293305 0291992 1342852 t -2.98 4.65 -1.07 1.52 -4.78 -5.25 -4.97 3.48 6.26 -0.27 -0.31 -0.18 -4.13 -3.95 -4.11 -4.72 -5.03 -3.48 -2.49 -1.53 -2.73 7.08 37 Number of obs F( 21, 14111) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE P>|t| 0.003 0.000 0.286 0.130 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.790 0.758 0.856 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.013 0.126 0.006 0.000 = = = = = = 14133 29.00 0.0000 0.0414 0.0399 53917 [95% Conf Interval] -.3332775 099599 -.1176698 -.0271269 -.0036332 -.0811624 -.1347637 0198432 0221991 -.067111 -.06839 -.063742 -.1789013 -.1738529 -.1812323 -.1936788 -.202651 -.1583027 -.1307485 -.1023643 -.1368751 688132 -.0688019 2448672 0346697 2123818 -.0015215 -.0370219 -.0584921 0711081 0424154 0510513 0497992 0529214 -.0636808 -.0586178 -.0642227 -.0800614 -.0890609 -.0441226 -.0156181 0126189 -.0224065 1.214566 湖北大学硕士学位论文 附表 5-4 被解释变量为 DTL 的回归分析原始输出结果 xi:reg dtl wlt gyg gjgl aglt wzzb zhd zsr kzr zcds i.year i.year _Iyear_2003-2015 (naturally coded; _Iyear_2003 omitted) Source SS df MS Model Residual 3289.41584 21 156.638849 50857.0375 14111 3.6040704 Total 54146.4533 14132 3.83147844 dtl Coef wlt gyg gjgl aglt wzzb zhd zsr kzr zcds _Iyear_2004 _Iyear_2005 _Iyear_2006 _Iyear_2007 _Iyear_2008 _Iyear_2009 _Iyear_2010 _Iyear_2011 _Iyear_2012 _Iyear_2013 _Iyear_2014 _Iyear_2015 _cons -.6032733 3203161 -.3116635 7573754 -.0118835 -.1514924 -.575357 216406 1865614 0342381 -.0318067 0338281 -.2995668 -.2108411 -.4507398 -.5250735 -.5193848 -.4475256 -.3695525 -.2936153 -.5703292 -1.44126 Std Err .2375442 1304756 1368269 2151196 0018967 0396457 0685049 0460446 0181576 1061299 1061541 1047836 1034877 1035007 1050946 1020478 1020233 1025533 1034067 1032746 1028123 472827 t -2.54 2.45 -2.28 3.52 -6.27 -3.82 -8.40 4.70 10.27 0.32 -0.30 0.32 -2.89 -2.04 -4.29 -5.15 -5.09 -4.36 -3.57 -2.84 -5.55 -3.05 38 Number of obs F( 21, 14111) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE P>|t| 0.011 0.014 0.023 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.747 0.764 0.747 0.004 0.042 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.000 0.002 = = = = = = 14133 43.46 0.0000 0.0608 0.0594 1.8984 [95% Conf Interval] -1.068891 0645666 -.5798622 3357125 -.0156013 -.2292032 -.7096356 1261524 1509701 -.1737906 -.2398827 -.1715616 -.5024164 -.4137162 -.656739 -.7251007 -.719364 -.6485435 -.5722433 -.4960471 -.7718549 -2.368063 -.1376552 5760655 -.0434648 1.179038 -.0081656 -.0737815 -.4410784 3066595 2221527 2422668 1762693 2392177 -.0967172 -.0079661 -.2447406 -.3250464 -.3194056 -.2465077 -.1668617 -.0911835 -.3688036 -.5144563 附 录 附表 6-1 国有样本被解释变量为 DFL 回归原始输出表 xi:reg dfl wlt gyg gjgl aglt wzzb zhd zsr kzr zcds i.year i.year _Iyear_2003-2015 (naturally coded; _Iyear_2003 omitted) note: kzr omitted because of collinearity Source SS df MS Model Residual 149.835158 20 7.49175792 5607.46536 6110 917752104 Total 5757.30051 6130 939200737 dfl wlt gyg gjgl aglt wzzb zhd zsr kzr zcds _Iyear_2004 _Iyear_2005 _Iyear_2006 _Iyear_2007 _Iyear_2008 _Iyear_2009 _Iyear_2010 _Iyear_2011 _Iyear_2012 _Iyear_2013 _Iyear_2014 _Iyear_2015 _cons Coef Std Err .0905781 1743999 -.023461 1022143 -133.6267 24.54895 4971382 1343799 -.003532 0013889 -.0136431 0306755 -.2148963 0538924 (omitted) 0956345 0121665 0016873 0635028 -.0216595 063751 -.0177076 0642395 -.0721342 0649671 -.0502028 0660923 -.2070381 0701703 -.1918613 0705145 -.1847426 0730979 -.1339149 0750418 -.1458165 0760667 -.0854315 0767382 -.2895485 0768768 -.7037545 3130385 t Number of obs F( 20, 6110) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE P>|t| = = = = = = 6131 8.16 0.0000 0.0260 0.0228 95799 [95% Conf Interval] 0.52 -0.23 -5.44 3.70 -2.54 -0.44 -3.99 0.604 0.818 0.000 0.000 0.011 0.657 0.000 -.2513072 -.2238372 -181.7513 2337062 -.0062548 -.073778 -.3205443 4324634 1769151 -85.50212 7605702 -.0008092 0464917 -.1092482 7.86 0.03 -0.34 -0.28 -1.11 -0.76 -2.95 -2.72 -2.53 -1.78 -1.92 -1.11 -3.77 -2.25 0.000 0.979 0.734 0.783 0.267 0.448 0.003 0.007 0.012 0.074 0.055 0.266 0.000 0.025 0717838 -.1228007 -.1466339 -.1436396 -.1994926 -.179767 -.3445965 -.3300946 -.3280403 -.2810233 -.294934 -.2358655 -.4402541 -1.31742 1194852 1261752 1033149 1082244 0552242 0793614 -.0694796 -.053628 -.0414449 0131934 003301 0650025 -.1388429 -.0900888 39 湖北大学硕士学位论文 附表 6-1 国有样本被解释变量为 DOL 回归原始输出表 xi:reg dol wlt gyg gjgl aglt wzzb zhd zsr kzr zcds i.year i.year _Iyear_2003-2015 (naturally coded; _Iyear_2003 omitted) note: kzr omitted because of collinearity Source SS df MS Model Residual 36.5633848 20 1.82816924 2815.7119 6110 460836645 Total 2852.27529 6130 465297763 dol wlt gyg gjgl aglt wzzb zhd zsr kzr zcds _Iyear_2004 _Iyear_2005 _Iyear_2006 _Iyear_2007 _Iyear_2008 _Iyear_2009 _Iyear_2010 _Iyear_2011 _Iyear_2012 _Iyear_2013 _Iyear_2014 _Iyear_2015 _cons Coef Std Err -.1887908 1235825 0705458 0724307 -60.00059 17.39577 0072688 0952237 -.002117 0009842 -.0629983 0217372 -.0463381 038189 (omitted) 0385593 0086214 0106933 0449991 0044105 045175 -.0009872 0455211 -.1131393 0460367 -.1525266 0468341 -.1390841 0497238 -.0867672 0499677 -.1423377 0517983 -.1555903 0531758 -.1409844 053902 -.0779231 0543779 -.139422 0544761 9478181 221824 t Number of obs F( 20, 6110) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE P>|t| = = = = = = 6131 3.97 0.0000 0.0128 0.0096 67885 [95% Conf Interval] -1.53 0.97 -3.45 0.08 -2.15 -2.90 -1.21 0.127 0.330 0.001 0.939 0.032 0.004 0.225 -.4310561 -.0714439 -94.10243 -.1794032 -.0040464 -.1056108 -.121202 0534745 2125355 -25.89875 1939409 -.0001875 -.0203858 0285258 4.47 0.24 0.10 -0.02 -2.46 -3.26 -2.80 -1.74 -2.75 -2.93 -2.62 -1.43 -2.56 4.27 0.000 0.812 0.922 0.983 0.014 0.001 0.005 0.083 0.006 0.003 0.009 0.152 0.011 0.000 0216583 -.0775208 -.0841484 -.0902246 -.2033875 -.2443378 -.2365602 -.1847215 -.2438807 -.2598336 -.2466514 -.184523 -.2462144 5129649 0554603 0989075 0929693 0882502 -.0228912 -.0607153 -.041608 0111871 -.0407947 -.051347 -.0353174 0286768 -.0326297 1.382671 40 附 录 附表 6-1 国有样本被解释变量为 DTL 回归原始输出表 xi:reg dtl wlt gyg gjgl aglt wzzb zhd zsr kzr zcds i.year i.year _Iyear_2003-2015 (naturally coded; _Iyear_2003 omitted) note: kzr omitted because of collinearity Source SS df MS Model Residual 1100.03089 20 55.0015446 44654.1455 6110 7.30837078 Total 45754.1764 6130 7.46397657 dtl wlt gyg gjgl aglt wzzb zhd zsr kzr zcds _Iyear_2004 _Iyear_2005 _Iyear_2006 _Iyear_2007 _Iyear_2008 _Iyear_2009 _Iyear_2010 _Iyear_2011 _Iyear_2012 _Iyear_2013 _Iyear_2014 _Iyear_2015 _cons Coef Std Err -.3280305 4921459 1300683 2884426 -374.5878 69.27563 72172 3792119 -.0076597 0039195 -.0411227 0865645 -.7813867 152081 (omitted) 2361777 0343332 0183893 1792011 0162676 1799014 0319964 1812798 -.3150507 1833332 -.1927699 1865084 -.4687843 1980162 -.3858181 1989877 -.4541564 2062779 -.3237442 2117634 -.2936528 2146555 -.0848364 2165506 -.6268057 2169416 -2.291809 8833754 t Number of obs F( 20, 6110) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE P>|t| = = = = = = 6131 7.53 0.0000 0.0240 0.0208 2.7034 [95% Conf Interval] -0.67 0.45 -5.41 1.90 -1.95 -0.48 -5.14 0.505 0.652 0.000 0.057 0.051 0.635 0.000 -1.29281 -.4353809 -510.3924 -.021669 -.0153433 -.2108196 -1.079519 6367488 6955174 -238.7831 1.465109 0000239 1285742 -.4832543 6.88 0.10 0.09 0.18 -1.72 -1.03 -2.37 -1.94 -2.20 -1.53 -1.37 -0.39 -2.89 -2.59 0.000 0.918 0.928 0.860 0.086 0.301 0.018 0.053 0.028 0.126 0.171 0.695 0.004 0.009 1688724 -.3329081 -.3364025 -.323376 -.6744483 -.5583922 -.8569659 -.775904 -.8585337 -.738875 -.7144532 -.5093519 -1.052088 -4.023536 303483 3696867 3689377 3873688 0443469 1728523 -.0806026 0042679 -.049779 0913865 1271477 3396792 -.2015237 -.5600817 41 湖北大学硕士学位论文 附表 6-2 非国有样本被解释变量为 DFL 回归原始输出表 xi:reg dfl wlt gyg gjgl aglt wzzb zhd zsr kzr zcds i.year i.year _Iyear_2003-2015 (naturally coded; _Iyear_2003 omitted) note: kzr omitted because of collinearity Source SS df MS Model Residual 190.933217 20 9.54666087 1961.29745 7981 245745828 Total 2152.23067 8001 268995209 dfl wlt gyg gjgl aglt wzzb zhd zsr kzr zcds _Iyear_2004 _Iyear_2005 _Iyear_2006 _Iyear_2007 _Iyear_2008 _Iyear_2009 _Iyear_2010 _Iyear_2011 _Iyear_2012 _Iyear_2013 _Iyear_2014 _Iyear_2015 _cons Coef Std Err -.2598878 103528 4631151 2445049 -.0962998 0358498 2041909 1006785 -.0054846 0007119 -.0724302 013724 -.1016074 0234676 (omitted) 0868325 0071265 0191765 0516424 -.0417564 0513222 0441579 049113 -.0240625 0474492 007039 046972 -.1149747 0460154 -.1650469 044093 -.1810531 0436127 -.1873184 043611 -.1559919 0437213 -.1477942 0435954 -.2326567 0434349 -.3328488 1927102 t Number of obs F( 20, 7981) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE P>|t| = = = = = = 8002 38.85 0.0000 0.0887 0.0864 49573 [95% Conf Interval] -2.51 1.89 -2.69 2.03 -7.70 -5.28 -4.33 0.012 0.058 0.007 0.043 0.000 0.000 0.000 -.4628297 -.0161784 -.1665748 0068348 -.00688 -.0993327 -.14761 -.0569458 9424086 -.0260249 4015471 -.0040891 -.0455277 -.0556048 12.18 0.37 -0.81 0.90 -0.51 0.15 -2.50 -3.74 -4.15 -4.30 -3.57 -3.39 -5.36 -1.73 0.000 0.710 0.416 0.369 0.612 0.881 0.012 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.084 0728626 -.0820561 -.1423614 -.0521165 -.1170753 -.0850384 -.2051769 -.2514807 -.2665453 -.2728074 -.241697 -.2332526 -.3178004 -.7106111 1008023 120409 0588486 1404323 0689502 0991165 -.0247724 -.078613 -.0955609 -.1018294 -.0702867 -.0623359 -.1475129 0449136 42 附 录 附表 6-2 非国有样本被解释变量为 DOL 回归原始输出表 xi:reg dol wlt gyg gjgl aglt wzzb zhd zsr kzr zcds i.year i.year _Iyear_2003-2015 (naturally coded; _Iyear_2003 omitted) note: kzr omitted because of collinearity Source SS df MS Model Residual 101.203371 20 5.06016853 1448.00418 7981 181431422 Total 1549.20755 8001 193626741 dol wlt gyg gjgl aglt wzzb zhd zsr kzr zcds _Iyear_2004 _Iyear_2005 _Iyear_2006 _Iyear_2007 _Iyear_2008 _Iyear_2009 _Iyear_2010 _Iyear_2011 _Iyear_2012 _Iyear_2013 _Iyear_2014 _Iyear_2015 _cons Coef Std Err -.1748702 0889551 -.0629462 2100878 -.0672126 0308035 1467657 0865067 -.0031337 0006117 -.0579274 0117921 -.1412234 0201642 (omitted) 0210244 0061234 -.0506377 0443731 -.0510139 044098 -.0122079 0421998 -.1381539 0407701 -.0669822 0403601 -.1080822 0395382 -.1628938 0378864 -.1410587 0374736 -.0729327 0374722 -.0416803 037567 -.0282116 0374588 -.0524667 0373209 1.156372 1655838 t Number of obs F( 20, 7981) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE P>|t| = = = = = = 8002 27.89 0.0000 0.0653 0.0630 42595 [95% Conf Interval] -1.97 -0.30 -2.18 1.70 -5.12 -4.91 -7.00 0.049 0.764 0.029 0.090 0.000 0.000 0.000 -.3492456 -.4747731 -.1275955 -.0228101 -.0043327 -.0810431 -.1807506 -.0004949 3488807 -.0068297 3163415 -.0019347 -.0348118 -.1016963 3.43 -1.14 -1.16 -0.29 -3.39 -1.66 -2.73 -4.30 -3.76 -1.95 -1.11 -0.75 -1.41 6.98 0.001 0.254 0.247 0.772 0.001 0.097 0.006 0.000 0.000 0.052 0.267 0.451 0.160 0.000 009021 -.1376205 -.1374575 -.0949304 -.218074 -.1460986 -.1855873 -.237161 -.2145168 -.146388 -.1153214 -.1016406 -.1256254 8317845 0330279 0363451 0354297 0705146 -.0582339 0121341 -.0305771 -.0886266 -.0676006 0005227 0319608 0452175 0206919 1.48096 43 湖北大学硕士学位论文 附表 6-2 非国有样本被解释变量为 DTL 回归原始输出表 xi:reg dtl wlt gyg gjgl aglt wzzb zhd zsr kzr zcds i.year i.year _Iyear_2003-2015 (naturally coded; _Iyear_2003 omitted) note: kzr omitted because of collinearity Source SS df MS Model Residual 1182.68122 20 59.1340611 12855.5185 7981 1.61076539 Total 14038.1998 8001 1.75455565 dtl wlt gyg gjgl aglt wzzb zhd zsr kzr zcds _Iyear_2004 _Iyear_2005 _Iyear_2006 _Iyear_2007 _Iyear_2008 _Iyear_2009 _Iyear_2010 _Iyear_2011 _Iyear_2012 _Iyear_2013 _Iyear_2014 _Iyear_2015 _cons Coef Std Err -.6119072 2650519 7312019 6259803 -.2472655 0917824 6694383 2577566 -.0139442 0018225 -.1798487 035136 -.4346676 0600816 (omitted) 1462863 0182453 0121981 1322146 -.120209 131395 0897271 1257389 -.2247338 1214791 -.0542106 1202575 -.3009093 1178084 -.4508534 1128868 -.4271284 1116569 -.3700522 1116527 -.2669087 111935 -.2287296 1116127 -.4132294 1112018 -.675959 4933757 t Number of obs F( 20, 7981) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE P>|t| = = = = = = 8002 36.71 0.0000 0.0842 0.0820 1.2692 [95% Conf Interval] -2.31 1.17 -2.69 2.60 -7.65 -5.12 -7.23 0.021 0.243 0.007 0.009 0.000 0.000 0.000 -1.131478 -.4958831 -.4271831 164168 -.0175168 -.2487245 -.5524432 -.0923361 1.958287 -.067348 1.174709 -.0103717 -.110973 -.3168921 8.02 0.09 -0.91 0.71 -1.85 -0.45 -2.55 -3.99 -3.83 -3.31 -2.38 -2.05 -3.72 -1.37 0.000 0.926 0.360 0.475 0.064 0.652 0.011 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.017 0.040 0.000 0.171 1105208 -.246977 -.3777774 -.1567541 -.4628645 -.2899468 -.5318446 -.672141 -.6460051 -.5889208 -.4863306 -.4475197 -.631214 -1.643104 1820518 2713732 1373595 3362083 013397 1815255 -.0699739 -.2295658 -.2082517 -.1511837 -.0474868 -.0099395 -.1952448 2911863 44 致 谢 致 谢 我首先要感谢我的论文指导老师黄晓波老师。黄老师对我论文的研究方向做出了指导性的意见和推 荐，在论文撰写过程中及时对我遇到的困难和疑惑给予悉心指点，提出了许多有益的改善性意见，投入 了超多的心血和精力。黄晓波老师对我的帮忙和关怀表示诚挚的谢意!同时，还要感谢湖北大学商学院 的授课老师们和所有同学们，大家在湖北大学学习中互相学习，互相帮忙，共同度过了一段完美难忘的 时光。 此外，还要感谢朋友以及同学们在论文编写中带给的大力支持和帮忙，给我带来极大的启发。也要 感谢参考文献中的作者们，透过他们的研究文章，使我对研究课题有了很好的出发点。 最后，谢谢论文评阅老师们的辛苦工作。衷心感谢我的家人、朋友，以及同学们，真是在他们的鼓 励和支持下我才得以顺利完成此论文。 45