Luận văn thạc sĩ tác động của mức độ mở của của nền kinh tế đến chỉ số lạm phát của việt nam , luận văn thạc sĩ

-oOo - MINH - NĂM 2013 123doc nh : : 60340201 – NĂM 2013 123doc – Tác giả 123doc Tôi qua Nhân đây, tr 123doc GIỚI THIỆU 2 5 CHƯƠNG ỦA MỨC ĐỘ MỞ CỬ Ế ĐẾN LẠM PHÁT 1.1 Mối quan hệ tỷ giá hối đoái lạm phát – lý thuyết Ngang giá sứa mua (PPP): 1.1.1.Quy luật giá: 1.1.2 Lý thuyết ngang giá sức mua (PPP) - mối quan hệ lạm phát, giá hàng hoá xuất nhập tỷ giá hối đoái: 1.1.3 Đườ 11 1.3 Các chứng thực nghiệm tác động mức độ mở cửa kinh tế đến lạm phát 12 13 17 20 CHƯƠNG 21 21 123doc C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an ứu: 21 : 22 22 25 CHƯƠNG 26 26 26 27 27 29 31 31 32 33 33 34 35 35 35 36 37 37 41 CHƯƠNG 42 42 Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn 123doc C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an i i i 1- i 2- xx 3- xxiv xxvi 1- xxvi 2- xxvi 3- xxvii Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn 123doc C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an DANH 24 25 26 28 29 37 38 Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn 123doc C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an ADB Asian Developing Bank ADF - Fuller Augmented Dickey Fuller test IMF International Monetary Fund GMM Generalized Method of Moment WB Ngân World Bank IFS International Financial Statistic FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations OLS Ordinary Least Square Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn 123doc C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an tác động mức độ mở cửa Bài nghiên cứu nhằm mụ kinh tế đến lạ ệt Nam cách hồ p GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) Arellano Bond (1991) ạn 2000 – 2012 Kết n số liệ ực nghiệm cho thấy tác động chiều mức độ mở cửa kinh tế đến lạm phát, thổi phồng lạm phát Kết ới cung tiền m2, nợ nước biế GDP ợ ỷ giá hối đoái, 123doc Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an xiv Null Hypothesis: D(I) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=10) Augmented Dickey-Fuller statistic Test critical values: 1% level 5% level 10% level t-Statistic Prob.* -7.051028 0.0000 test -3.568308 -2.921175 -2.598551 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(I,2) Method: Least Squares Date: 09/19/13 Time: 10:51 Sample (adjusted): 52 Included observations: 50 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob D(I(-1)) C -1.017571 0.117224 0.144315 0.126517 -7.051028 0.926551 0.0000 0.3588 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.508786 0.498552 0.886851 37.75219 -63.92244 49.71699 0.000000 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 123doc Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn 3.48E-17 1.252384 2.636898 2.713378 2.666022 2.000629 C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an xv ầu (Oil): Biến Null Hypothesis: OIL has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=10) Augmented Dickey-Fuller statistic Test critical values: 1% level 5% level 10% level t-Statistic Prob.* -1.286131 0.6288 test -3.571310 -2.922449 -2.599224 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(OIL) Method: Least Squares Date: 09/19/13 Time: 10:51 Sample (adjusted): 52 Included observations: 49 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob OIL(-1) D(OIL(-1)) D(OIL(-2)) C -0.079253 0.366481 -0.382984 5.407215 0.061621 0.133718 0.138388 3.600596 -1.286131 2.740707 -2.767460 1.501756 0.2050 0.0088 0.0082 0.1401 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.262297 0.213117 10.30661 4780.176 -181.7481 5.333387 0.003136 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 123doc Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn 1.068844 11.61878 7.581555 7.735989 7.640147 1.932808 C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an xvi Null Hypothesis: D(OIL) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=10) Augmented Dickey-Fuller statistic Test critical values: 1% level 5% level 10% level t-Statistic Prob.* -6.681472 0.0000 test -3.571310 -2.922449 -2.599224 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(OIL,2) Method: Least Squares Date: 09/19/13 Time: 10:53 Sample (adjusted): 52 Included observations: 49 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob D(OIL(-1)) D(OIL(-1),2) C -1.098383 0.436749 1.188854 0.164392 0.132858 1.496003 -6.681472 3.287328 0.794687 0.0000 0.0019 0.4309 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.498928 0.477142 10.37963 4955.888 -182.6325 22.90158 0.000000 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 123doc Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn -0.135578 14.35456 7.576837 7.692663 7.620781 1.957130 C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an xvii Null Hypothesis: FDI has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=10) Augmented Dickey-Fuller statistic Test critical values: 1% level 5% level 10% level t-Statistic Prob.* -1.189070 0.6724 test -3.565430 -2.919952 -2.597905 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(FDI) Method: Least Squares Date: 09/19/13 Time: 10:53 Sample (adjusted): 52 Included observations: 51 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob FDI(-1) C -0.066643 0.124318 -1.189070 1.388868 0.2401 0.1712 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.028046 0.008210 0.247049 2.990627 -0.039126 1.413888 0.240143 0.056046 0.089510 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 0.026154 0.248069 0.079966 0.155724 0.108915 1.925198 Null Hypothesis: D(FDI) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=10) t-Statistic 123doc Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Prob.* C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an xviii Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic Test critical values: 1% level 5% level 10% level -6.928203 -3.568308 -2.921175 -2.598551 0.0000 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(FDI,2) Method: Least Squares Date:09/19/13 Time: 10:54 Sample (adjusted): 52 Included observations: 50 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob D(FDI(-1)) C -1.000000 0.026154 0.144338 0.036004 0.0000 0.4711 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.500000 0.489583 0.253185 3.076921 -1.244584 48.00000 0.000000 -6.928203 0.726415 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat T -1.07E-17 0.354385 0.129783 0.206264 0.158908 2.000000 (NEER): Null Hypothesis: NEER has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=10) Augmented Dickey-Fuller statistic Test critical values: 1% level 5% level 10% level t-Statistic Prob.* 0.606410 0.9886 test -3.565430 -2.919952 -2.597905 123doc Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an xix *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(NEER) Method: Least Squares Date: 09/19/13 Time: 11:40 Sample (adjusted): 2000Q2 2012Q4 Included observations: 51 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob NEER(-1) C 0.013194 -87.15476 0.021757 364.9867 0.606410 -0.238789 0.5470 0.8123 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.007449 -0.012807 303.9695 4527476 -362.9090 0.367733 0.547042 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 132.6667 302.0415 14.31016 14.38592 14.33911 2.202036 Null Hypothesis: DNEER) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=10) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -7.517797 Test critical values: 1% level -3.568308 5% level -2.921175 10% level -2.598551 0.0000 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(NEER,2) Method: Least Squares Date: 09/19/13 Time: 11:42 Sample (adjusted): 2000Q3 2012Q4 Included observations: 50 after adjustments 123doc Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an xx Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob D(NEER(-1)) C -1.082117 145.9720 0.143941 47.56178 -7.517797 3.069104 0.0000 0.0035 R-squared 0.540746 Adjusted R-squared 0.531178 S.E of regression 306.8166 Sum squared resid 4518548 Log likelihood -356.2389 F-statistic 56.51727 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 2- Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat -0.460000 448.0999 14.32956 14.40604 14.35868 1.979407 Johansen: Included observations: 49 after adjustments Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend Series: INF OPEN M2 NEER FDEBT OIL Lags interval (in first differences): to Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace) Hypothesized No of CE(s) Eigenvalue Trace Statistic 0.05 Critical Value Prob.** None * At most * At most At most At most At most 0.806890 0.627988 0.452326 0.115773 0.073040 0.006143 168.5818 88.00163 39.54896 10.04732 4.018318 0.301928 95.75366 69.81889 47.85613 29.79707 15.49471 3.841466 0.0000 0.0009 0.2390 0.9796 0.9021 0.5827 Trace test indicates cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level **MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue) Hypothesized No of CE(s) Eigenvalue None * At most * 0.806890 0.627988 Max-Eigen 0.05 Statistic Critical Value 80.58019 48.45267 40.07757 33.87687 123doc Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Prob.** 0.0000 0.0005 C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an xxi At most * At most At most At most 0.452326 0.115773 0.073040 0.006143 29.50164 6.029007 3.716390 0.301928 27.58434 21.13162 14.26460 3.841466 0.0280 0.9823 0.8880 0.5827 Max-eigenvalue test indicates cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level **MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I): INF 0.188416 -0.371678 -0.504358 0.053279 -0.146330 0.003613 OPEN 2.215058 13.38285 6.546592 3.715070 -4.329144 -2.046988 M2 0.060667 -0.225226 0.013730 -0.012927 -0.048311 0.052377 NEER 0.000916 -0.001239 -0.000468 0.000516 0.000203 0.000987 FDEBT -0.762444 0.199886 0.107499 0.098970 -0.077315 -0.085386 OIL 0.027387 -0.012190 0.035303 -0.089714 0.042382 0.007588 0.009383 0.011356 0.639638 -37.00649 0.018925 3.084184 0.114872 -0.020261 0.020030 -0.000749 0.464105 -0.035764 12.84480 16.23916 0.313907 0.121562 0.044766 0.296764 Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha): D(INF) D(OPEN) D(M2) D(NEER) D(FDEBT) D(OIL) -0.193811 -0.068893 0.477120 -94.66268 3.595395 0.280383 -0.319304 -0.090169 2.466782 29.98993 -0.409918 -5.729592 0.832890 -0.027959 -0.901382 -6.407948 0.804336 3.131378 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood -827.6819 Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses) INF OPEN M2 NEER FDEBT 1.000000 11.75620 0.321983 0.004864 -4.046597 (5.44964) (0.08775) (0.00065) (0.31377) Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses) D(INF) -0.036517 (0.04451) D(OPEN) -0.012981 (0.00478) D(M2) 0.089897 (0.13599) D(NEER) -17.83598 123doc Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn OIL 0.145352 (0.04654) C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an xxii D(FDEBT) D(OIL) (7.84558) 0.677430 (0.09312) 0.052829 (0.41586) Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood -803.4556 Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses) INF OPEN M2 NEER FDEBT 1.000000 0.000000 0.391883 0.004487 -3.182949 (0.05887) (0.00049) (0.24131) 0.000000 1.000000 -0.005946 3.21E-05 -0.073463 (0.00202) (1.7E-05) (0.00830) OIL 0.117648 (0.03070) 0.002357 (0.00106) Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses) D(INF) 0.082161 -4.702500 (0.09584) (3.11974) D(OPEN) 0.020533 -1.359317 (0.00845) (0.27494) D(M2) -0.826951 34.06941 (0.24548) (7.99117) D(NEER) -28.98257 191.6673 (17.2225) (560.637) D(FDEBT) 0.829788 2.478131 (0.20392) (6.63806) D(OIL) 2.182391 -76.05718 (0.82645) (26.9032) Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood -788.7047 Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses) INF OPEN M2 NEER FDEBT 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.002005 -1.590840 (0.00040) (0.21826) 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 6.97E-05 -0.097619 (1.6E-05) (0.00872) 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.006333 -4.062718 (0.00109) (0.59974) Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses) 123doc Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn OIL -0.006368 (0.02998) 0.004238 (0.00120) 0.316462 (0.08237) C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an xxiii D(INF) -0.337913 (0.11898) 0.034635 (0.01289) -0.372332 (0.37230) -25.75067 (27.0302) 0.424115 (0.30755) 0.603055 (1.25048) 0.750089 (2.73920) -1.542356 (0.29687) 28.16842 (8.57123) 149.7171 (622.299) 7.743791 (7.08050) -55.55732 (28.7890) 0.071593 (0.04249) 0.015745 (0.00461) -0.539014 (0.13297) -12.58537 (9.65372) 0.321488 (0.10984) 1.350456 (0.44660) Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood -785.6902 D(OPEN) D(M2) D(NEER) D(FDEBT) D(OIL) Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses) INF OPEN M2 NEER FDEBT 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -5.857429 (2.31271) 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.245973 (0.08079) 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 -17.53939 (7.25917) 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 2127.879 (1142.49) Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses) D(INF) -0.337413 0.784949 0.071472 (0.11937) (2.82118) (0.04256) D(OPEN) 0.035240 -1.500168 0.015598 (0.01288) (0.30432) (0.00459) D(M2) -0.338252 30.54473 -0.547282 (0.36673) (8.66730) (0.13074) D(NEER) -27.72234 12.23542 -12.10699 (26.8070) (633.561) (9.55703) D(FDEBT) 0.425123 7.814099 0.321244 (0.30856) (7.29253) (0.11001) D(OIL) 0.767378 -44.09936 1.310587 (1.20705) (28.5275) (0.43033) Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood -783.8320 123doc Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn -0.000167 (0.00031) 6.75E-05 (3.3E-05) -0.001866 (0.00094) -0.140000 (0.06906) 0.003436 (0.00079) 0.007480 (0.00311) OIL 0.866422 (0.36234) 0.034586 (0.01266) 3.073305 (1.13732) -435.2876 (178.997) C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an xxiv Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses) INF OPEN M2 NEER FDEBT 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses) D(INF) -0.354223 0.287654 0.065922 (0.12160) (2.91223) (0.04321) D(OPEN) 0.032309 -1.586881 0.014630 (0.01299) (0.31120) (0.00462) D(M2) -0.406165 28.53555 -0.569704 (0.37201) (8.90931) (0.13218) D(NEER) -29.60192 -43.37155 -12.72753 (27.4262) (656.837) (9.74476) D(FDEBT) 0.379189 6.455149 0.306079 (0.31411) (7.52277) (0.11161) D(OIL) 0.760827 -44.29316 1.308425 (1.23667) (29.6172) (0.43940) -0.000144 (0.00031) 7.16E-05 (3.3E-05) -0.001772 (0.00094) -0.137389 (0.06946) 0.003500 (0.00080) 0.007489 (0.00313) 3- Sample: 2000:1 2012:4 Lags: Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic OPEN does not Granger Cause INF INF does not Granger Cause OPEN 48 4.46690 5.74092 123doc Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Prob 0.0046 0.0010 OIL -0.126466 (0.03567) -0.007109 (0.00167) 0.100217 (0.10860) -74.59251 (21.9743) -0.169509 (0.02256) 0.165528 (0.14562) 0.031073 (0.01556) 0.059822 (0.44549) 72.82509 (32.8439) -2.759156 (0.37616) -0.720640 (1.48096) C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an xxv M2 does not Granger Cause INF INF does not Granger Cause M2 48 3.94497 0.08888 0.0088 0.9854 NEER does not Granger Cause INF INF does not Granger Cause NEER 48 1.80703 1.20294 0.1470 0.3250 FDEBT does not Granger Cause INF INF does not Granger Cause FDEBT 48 1.97111 5.04370 0.1181 0.0023 OIL does not Granger Cause INF INF does not Granger Cause OIL 48 8.63093 1.44242 4.E-05 0.2384 M2 does not Granger Cause OPEN OPEN does not Granger Cause M2 48 1.71244 0.20057 0.1668 0.9365 NEER does not Granger Cause OPEN OPEN does not Granger Cause NEER 48 0.69093 0.16634 0.6027 0.9542 FDEBT does not Granger Cause OPEN OPEN does not Granger Cause FDEBT 48 6.19457 3.96642 0.0006 0.0085 OIL does not Granger Cause OPEN OPEN does not Granger Cause OIL 48 11.3117 1.90690 3.E-06 0.1287 NEER does not Granger Cause M2 M2 does not Granger Cause NEER 48 0.82016 0.48007 0.5202 0.7501 FDEBT does not Granger Cause M2 M2 does not Granger Cause FDEBT 48 0.14679 3.35483 0.9633 0.0188 OIL does not Granger Cause M2 M2 does not Granger Cause OIL 48 1.10372 4.21453 0.3685 0.0062 FDEBT does not Granger Cause NEER NEER does not Granger Cause FDEBT 48 1.59378 1.77252 0.1953 0.1540 OIL does not Granger Cause NEER NEER does not Granger Cause OIL 48 1.12439 0.95426 0.3591 0.4433 OIL does not Granger Cause FDEBT FDEBT does not Granger Cause OIL 48 12.5712 1.70678 1.E-06 0.1681 123doc Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an xxvi P quy: 1Dependent Variable: INF Method: Generalized Method of Moments Sample (adjusted): 2001:1 2012:4 Included observations: 48 after adjustments Kernel: Bartlett, Bandwidth: Fixed (3), No prewhitening Simultaneous weighting matrix & coefficient iteration Convergence achieved after: 67 weight matrices, 68 total coef iterations Instrument list: INF(-1) OPEN(-1) OPEN(-2) OPEN(-3) OPEN(-4) M2(-1) M2( -2) M2(-3) M2(-4) NEER(-1) NEER(-2) NEER(-3) NEER(-4) FDEBT(-1) FDEBT(-2) FDEBT(-3) FDEBT(-4) OIL(-1) OIL(-2) OIL(-3) OIL(-4) Variable Coefficient C INF(-1) OPEN M2 NEER FDEBT OIL 2.352696 0.693141 3.765946 -0.044921 -0.000576 0.101566 0.028716 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Durbin-Watson stat 0.862149 0.841976 2.660313 0.939430 Std Error t-Statistic 1.607308 1.463749 0.027236 25.44953 0.874555 4.306127 0.012252 -3.666396 0.000116 -4.986366 0.035122 2.891792 0.008726 3.290665 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Sum squared resid J-statistic 123doc Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Prob 0.1509 0.0000 0.0001 0.0007 0.0000 0.0061 0.0021 8.794546 6.692239 290.1679 0.153133 C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an xxvii 2Dependent Variable: INF Method: Generalized Method of Moments Date: 01/02/14 Time: 14:19 Sample (adjusted): 2001:1 2012:4 Included observations: 48 after adjustments Kernel: Bartlett, Bandwidth: Fixed (3), No prewhitening Simultaneous weighting matrix & coefficient iteration Convergence achieved after: 73 weight matrices, 74 total coef iterations Instrument list: INF(-1) OPEN(-1) OPEN(-2) OPEN(-3) OPEN(-4) M2(-1) M2( -2) M2(-3) M2(-4) FDEBT(-1) FDEBT(-2) FDEBT(-3) FDEBT(-4) NEER( -1) NEER(-2) NEER(-3) NEER(-4) OIL(-1) OIL(-2) OIL(-3) OIL(-4) 3- Variable Coefficient C INF(-1) OPEN M2 FDEBT NEER OIL OPGD 22.45577 0.742195 3.628817 -0.077848 0.082673 -0.001882 0.022740 7.21E-07 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Durbin-Watson stat 0.857703 0.832801 2.736457 0.862345 Std Error t-Statistic 4.839765 4.639848 0.020553 36.11131 0.693170 5.235102 0.014120 -5.513157 0.029010 2.849813 0.000310 -6.068402 0.007656 2.970228 1.75E-07 4.128991 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Sum squared resid J-statistic Prob 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0069 0.0000 0.0050 0.0002 8.794546 6.692239 299.5279 0.136694 (3): Dependent Variable: INF Method: Generalized Method of Moments Sample (adjusted): 2001:1 2012:4 Included observations: 48 after adjustments Kernel: Bartlett, Bandwidth: Fixed (3), No prewhitening Simultaneous weighting matrix & coefficient iteration Convergence not achieved after: 499 weight matrices, 500 total 123doc Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn