(Luận văn) the linkage between corruption and carbon dioxide emission, evidence from asian countries

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY VIETNAM ERASMUS UNVERSITY ROTTERDAM INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES THE NETHERLANDS t to ng hi ep VIETNAM – THE NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS w n lo ad ju y th yi pl THE LINKAGE BETWEEN CORRUPTION AND CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSION: EVIDENCE FROM ASIAN COUNTRIES n ua al n va ll fu oi m at nh BY z NGUYEN THAI DUONG z ht vb k jm gm om l.c MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS n a Lu n va y te re HO CHI MINH CITY, NOVEMBER 2016 t to UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY VIETNAM INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES THE HAGUE THE NETHERLANDS ng hi ep w n lo VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS ad ju y th yi pl THE LINKAGE BETWEEN CORRUPTION AND CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSION: EVIDENCE FROM ASIAN COUNTRIES n ua al n va ll fu m oi A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of nh MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS at z z ht vb om l.c gm NGUYEN THAI DUONG k jm By n DR PHAM KHANH NAM a Lu Academic Supervisor: n va y te re HO CHI MINH CITY, NOVEMBER 2016 TABLE OF CONTENTS t to ng ACKNOWLEDGEMENT hi ep ABSTRACT .2 ABBREVIATIONS w n LIST OF FIGURES lo ad CHAPTER INTRODUCTION y th 1.1 Problem Statement ju 1.2 Research Objectives yi 1.3 Thesis Structure pl al CHAPTER LITERATURE REVIEW 10 n ua 2.1 The corruption – growth relationship review 10 va 2.2 The growth – environment relationship review 13 n 2.3 The corruption – environment relationship review 16 fu ll CHAPTER METHODOLOGY 20 m oi 3.1 Analytical Framework 20 nh at 3.2 Model specification and estimation method 21 z 3.3 Data and variables 23 z vb CHAPTER RESULT 29 ht 4.1 Descriptive Statistic 29 jm k 4.2 Covariance matrix 32 gm 4.3 Regression result 36 l.c CHAPTER CONCLUSION .45 om 5.1 Conclusion 45 a Lu 5.2 Policy Implications 46 n 5.3 Thesis limitations 46 n va 5.4 Suggestion for further researches 47 y APPENDICES 55 te re REFERENCES 48 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT t to ng Firstly, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my advisor Dr Pham hi Khanh Nam for his continuous and solid support during my thesis writing process ep Several insightful comments based on his immense knowledge helped me to solve w all my problems regarding to this thesis Besides my advisor, I would like to thank n lo Dr Truong Dang Thuy for his useful advice on my methodology ad y th My special thanks also go to my colleagues who always create opportunities ju and arrange everything for me so that I could have adequate time to pursue my yi pl thesis al n ua Finally, I would like to send my love to my family and my close friends for va always being beside me, spiritually encouraging me and letting me know that no n matter what has happened I am not alone ll fu oi m at nh z z ht vb k jm om l.c gm n a Lu n va y te re 1|Page ABSTRACT t to ng This research investigates the direct and indirect effects of corruption which hi measured by corruption perception index on carbon dioxide emissions Using data ep from 42 Asian countries and applying three-stage least squares (3SLS) method with w considering corruption as endogenous variable, the finding indicates both effects are n lo positive implying that countries should reduce their corruption levels to lower ad poison gas emission Although these effects are not clear when we control for fixed y th ju effects using countries dummies, these are significant when we use Asian sub- yi regions dummy instead In addition, we also find that capital per worker and human pl ua al capital possess positive relationships with economic growth while the share of export and import in GDP positively affects carbon dioxide emission n va n Keywords: Corruption, economic growth, environment, carbon dioxide, Asian ll fu countries, three-stage least squares, endogeneity oi m at nh z z ht vb k jm om l.c gm n a Lu n va y te re 2|Page ABBREVIATIONS t to ng hi ep w n 2SLS Two-stage least squares 3SLS Three-stage least squares CO2 Carbon dioxide lo Corruption Perception Index EDGAR Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research EKC Environmental Kuznets Curve ad CPI ju y th yi Gross domestic product pl GDP Gross Fixed Capital Formation RF Radiative forcing n ua al GFK n va ll fu oi m at nh z z ht vb k jm om l.c gm n a Lu n va y te re 3|Page LIST OF FIGURES t to ng Figure 1.1: Carbon dioxide levels since 400,000 years ago hi Figure 2.1: Environmental Kuznets Curve .14 ep Figure 3.1: Conceptual Framework 21 w Figure 3.2: Major Greenhouse Gases from People's Activities 25 n lo Figure 4.1: A combination of three scatter plots show the correlations between our main variables, namely corruption – carbon dioxide – emission, corruption – income per capita and income per capita – carbon dioxide emission .34 ad ju y th yi pl n ua al n va ll fu oi m at nh z z ht vb k jm om l.c gm n a Lu n va y te re 4|Page LIST OF TABLES t to ng Table 3.1: Name of sub-regions and countries in the sample 23 hi Table 4.1: Descriptive Statistic 29 ep Table 4.2: Skewness and kurtosis value before and after taking natural logarithms 31 w Table 4.3: Covariance matrix 35 n Table 4.4: Three-stage least squares regression (pooled regression) 37 lo ad Table 4.5: Three-stage least squares regression with fixed effects of sub-regions and time 38 y th ju Table 4.6: The impact of corruption on pollution .40 yi pl Table 4.7: Three-stage least squares regression with fixed effects of countries and time 41 ua al Table 4.8: Results of all three above regressions .44 n n va ll fu oi m at nh z z ht vb k jm om l.c gm n a Lu n va y te re 5|Page CHAPTER INTRODUCTION t to ng 1.1 Problem Statement hi ep Climate change is one of the most important issues facing the world today Many serious observable influences on the environment due to global climate w n change have been seen: continuous rise in temperatures, stronger and more intense lo ad hurricanes, more droughts and heat waves, loss of sea ice, accelerated rise in sea y th level, etc Climate change is mainly caused by the emission of heat-trapping gases ju or greenhouse gases There are many sorts of greenhouse gases such as water vapor, yi pl carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydro fluorocarbons ua al (HFCs), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), per fluorocarbons (PFCs) or sulfur n hexafluoride (SF6), but carbon dioxide which has accumulated without being any va n less strong in the atmosphere places us at the highest risk of serious ecological fu ll problems This is attributed to two key reasons First, among heat-trapping gases, oi m CO2 has the highest positive “Radiative Forcing” (RF)1 Although, CO2 molecule at nh has less heat-trapping ability than other gases’ molecule, the amount of CO2 in the z atmosphere is the most abundant and is emitted into the air with the highest speed z owing to daily human activities Second, the time that CO2 existing before totally vb ht leaving from the atmosphere is much longer than most of other greenhouse gases jm While methane takes about 10 years to decay and nitrous oxide takes a century, CO2 k l.c gm takes approximately 50-200 years to leave from the atmosphere om Facing with this severe problem, many worldwide conferences have taken place aiming to discuss how to diminish greenhouse gases release, especially carbon a Lu dioxide release Typically, Kyoto Protocol, which was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on n y 6|Page te re “Radiative Forcing” (RF) which is defined as the difference in the energy of the incoming solar radiation absorbed by the Earth and the energy of outgoing radiation is the factor affecting the temperature of the Earth’s surface The surface could be warmer if the RF gets positive value and cooler if the RF gets the negative one n greenhouse gases emission within the allowable levels After several rounds of va 11th December 1997, is a commitment of countries around the world to limit the discussion and amendment (e.g Marrakesh, Morocco, in 2001; Doha, Qatar, in t to 2012), this protocol officially became effective on 16th February 2005 ng hi ep w n lo ad ju y th yi pl n ua al n va ll fu Figure 1.1: Carbon dioxide levels since 400,000 years ago m oi (Credit: Vostok ice core data/J.R Petit et al.; NOAA Mauna Loa CO2 record.) nh at Besides practical activities in the endeavor to reduce CO2 emission all over z the world, many researches have been implemented to figure out the determinants z ht vb of environment pollution in general and air pollution in particular One of these jm important factors attracting researchers’ attentions is corruption “Corruption k involves behavior on the part of officials in the public sector, whether politicians or gm civil servants, in which they improperly and unlawfully enrich themselves, or those om l.c close to them, by the misuse of the power entrusted to them” (Transparency International, 2000) The previous literature suggests that corruption can affect a Lu environment not only directly but also indirectly On the one hand, the n y te re corruption might indirectly affect pollution through income transmission channel n results in higher pollution (see Hafner, 1998; Lippe, 1999) On the other hand, va environmental laws enforcement might be less effective under corruption, which There is evidence that corruption could have harmful effects on the economic growth (Mauro, 1995; Hall and Jones, 1999) Then, pollution might reduce at some 7|Page REFERENCES t to ng Abed, G T., & Davoodi, H R (2000) Corruption, structural reforms, and hi economic performance in the transition economies ep Agras, J., & Chapman, D (1999) A dynamic approach to the Environmental w Kuznets Curve hypothesis Ecological Economics, 28(2), 267-277 n lo Aidt, T., Dutta, J., & Sena, V (2008) Governance regimes, corruption and growth: ad Theory and evidence Journal of Comparative Economics, 36(2), 195-220 y th ju Azomahou, T., Laisney, F., & Van, P N (2006) Economic development and CO a nonparametric yi emissions: panel approach Journal of Public pl ua al Economics, 90(6), 1347-1363 B.R Copeland, M.S Taylor, 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Expected Unit lo Sign ad Y USD y th Capital stock per worker ju KPW Income per capita + % + % +/- % - % +/- yi USD Human capital (literacy rate) POP Population growth INF Inflation rate TRADE Share of trade (import and export) in GDP CORR Corruption Perception Index pl HK n ua al n va ll fu m oi +/- nh at Equation z Expected z Definition Unit Sign ht vb Variables Kiloton/year CORR Corruption Perception Index Y Income per capita IND The share of industry in GDP % TRADE Share of trade (import and export) in GDP % + k Carbon dioxide emissions per capita a Lu jm E gm om USD l.c + + + n n va y te re 55 | P a g e Appendix 2: Three-stage least squares regression (pooled regression) t to ng reg3 (lnY=CORR lnKPW HK POP INF lnTRADE) (lnE=CORR lnY lnY2 lnY3 lnIND lnTRAD > E), endog(CORR) hi ep Three-stage least-squares regression Equation w n lnY lnE lo Obs Parms RMSE "R-sq" chi2 P 434 434 6 300561 1.472408 0.9554 0.3194 9304.60 417.76 0.0000 0.0000 ad y th ju Coef Std Err z P>|z| [95% Conf Interval] yi pl lnY n ua 0.129 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.876 0.146 0.002 -.0015501 8095296 9846141 4.36264 -.5694558 -.02188 -2.355756 0122134 9430857 1.418255 7.337555 4854145 1471728 -.5317417 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.002 0.553 0.000 0.001 0487955 21.75809 -10.81584 1010938 -.3596356 4011378 -251.5692 0997735 91.07423 -2.503184 4273823 6715864 1.074035 -61.87564 ll fu 0742845 56.41616 -6.659515 2642381 1559754 7375865 -156.7224 1.52 25.72 10.86 7.71 -0.16 1.45 -3.10 n CORR lnY lnY2 lnY3 lnIND lnTRADE _cons 0035111 0340711 1106248 7589209 2691045 0431265 4653184 va 0053316 8763076 1.201435 5.850097 -.0420207 0626464 -1.443749 al CORR lnKPW HK POP INF lnTRADE _cons 5.71 3.19 -3.14 3.17 0.59 4.30 -3.24 at nh z z ht vb jm lnY lnE CORR lnKPW HK POP INF lnTRADE lnY2 lnY3 lnIND k Endogenous variables: Exogenous variables: 0130048 17.68301 2.120616 0832384 2630717 1716607 48.3921 oi m lnE om l.c gm n a Lu n va y te re 56 | P a g e Appendix 3: Three-stage least squares regression with fixed effects of sub-regions t to and time ng hi ep reg3 (lnY=CORR lnKPW HK POP INF lnTRADE i.year i.coderegion) (lnE=CORR lnY ln > Y2 lnY3 lnIND lnTRADE i.year i.coderegion), endog(CORR) Three-stage least-squares regression w n Equation lo ad lnY lnE Obs Parms RMSE "R-sq" chi2 P 434 434 24 24 2743271 1.194582 0.9628 0.5520 11347.85 861.57 0.0000 0.0000 ju y th yi Coef Std Err z P>|z| [95% Conf Interval] pl ua al lnY 007165 9310673 1.022217 7.128342 -.6612538 0994749 0037784 0404212 1527078 7819047 2630992 0533897 1.90 23.03 6.69 9.12 -2.51 1.86 year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -.0722011 -.0255418 -.0292624 0095821 -.0206782 0005989 0551973 -.146934 -.087777 -.0620033 -.1005496 -.1181006 0890147 0822949 0822542 0808666 081948 08533 0866515 0888082 0885581 090858 0900936 0911012 -0.81 -0.31 -0.36 0.12 -0.25 0.01 0.64 -1.65 -0.99 -0.68 -1.12 -1.30 coderegion -.2375648 2519532 0366768 -.0657151 1693639 -.2074802 0797963 0730659 0880577 056337 0607725 0665482 -2.98 3.45 0.42 -1.17 2.79 -3.12 0.003 0.001 0.677 0.243 0.005 0.002 -.3939625 1087467 -.1359131 -.1761337 0502519 -.3379123 _cons -1.7926 5560725 -3.22 0.001 -2.882482 n CORR lnKPW HK POP INF lnTRADE n va ll fu -.0002406 8518432 7229152 5.595837 -1.176919 -.005167 0145706 1.010291 1.321519 8.660847 -.1455889 2041168 0.417 0.756 0.722 0.906 0.801 0.994 0.524 0.098 0.322 0.495 0.264 0.195 -.2466667 -.1868368 -.1904777 -.1489135 -.1812934 -.1666448 -.1146365 -.3209949 -.2613478 -.2400817 -.2771299 -.2966557 1022646 1357532 1319529 1680777 1399369 1678427 2250311 0271268 0857937 116075 0760307 0604544 oi m 0.058 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.012 0.062 at nh z z ht vb k jm om l.c gm n a Lu -.081167 3951596 2092668 0447035 2884759 -.0770481 n y te re 57 | P a g e va -.7027178 lnE t to ng hi ep 0395584 72.69231 -8.462023 3283747 -.2627133 9938143 0148501 9.959184 1.188538 0465745 2328315 2215248 2.66 7.30 -7.12 7.05 -1.13 4.49 0.008 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.259 0.000 0104528 53.17267 -10.79151 2370904 -.7190548 5596337 068664 92.21195 -6.132531 419659 1936281 1.427995 year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -.0847447 -.3122003 -.6221195 -.7650945 -1.277854 -1.654213 -1.967542 -1.753561 -2.031267 -2.251956 -2.236048 -2.067424 3672401 3367668 334861 3305086 3338075 3480213 3571512 3502926 3547176 3636291 3569756 3616462 -0.23 -0.93 -1.86 -2.31 -3.83 -4.75 -5.51 -5.01 -5.73 -6.19 -6.26 -5.72 0.818 0.354 0.063 0.021 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -.8045221 -.9722511 -1.278435 -1.412879 -1.932105 -2.336323 -2.667546 -2.440122 -2.7265 -2.964656 -2.935707 -2.776237 6350326 3478505 034196 -.1173096 -.6236038 -.9721043 -1.267539 -1.067 -1.336033 -1.539256 -1.536389 -1.35861 -1.90 -2.60 -2.77 -10.23 -5.28 -5.01 0.058 0.009 0.006 0.000 0.000 0.000 -1.462385 -1.411232 -1.558489 -2.94746 -2.012591 -1.89103 0235168 -.1988742 -.2655619 -1.999351 -.9222394 -.8268187 -253.408 -145.2945 w CORR lnY lnY2 lnY3 lnIND lnTRADE n lo ad ju y th yi pl n ua al n va -199.3512 27.58048 ll oi m z _cons at 3790635 3092806 3298344 2418689 278156 2714875 nh -.7194341 -.805053 -.9120255 -2.473405 -1.467415 -1.358924 fu coderegion z 0.000 ht vb -7.23 k jm Endogenous variables: lnY lnE CORR Exogenous variables: lnKPW HK POP INF lnTRADE 2002.year 2003.year 2004.year 2005.year 2006.year 2007.year 2008.year 2009.year 2010.year 2011.year 2012.year 2013.year 2.coderegion 3.coderegion 4.coderegion 5.coderegion 6.coderegion 7.coderegion lnY2 lnY3 lnIND om l.c gm n a Lu n va y te re 58 | P a g e Appendix 4: Three-stage least squares regression with fixed effects of countries and t to time ng hi reg3 (lnY=CORR lnKPW HK POP INF lnTRADE i.year i.codecountry) (lnE=CORR lnY l > nY2 lnY3 lnIND lnTRADE i.year i.codecountry), endog(CORR) ep Three-stage least-squares regression w Equation Parms RMSE "R-sq" chi2 P 434 434 58 58 2289026 1305283 0.9741 0.9947 15632.03 51811.93 0.0000 0.0000 n Obs lo ad lnY lnE ju y th yi Coef Std Err z P>|z| [95% Conf Interval] pl al lnY 0581489 7539155 -.57835 -2.282611 -.0617293 217596 year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -.0520004 -.013172 0306233 1787129 2000866 1849489 3027569 2029753 2852394 3501261 4459263 4107264 0775849 0744466 077682 0777198 0815778 0903015 094042 0943042 0991424 1055276 1128235 1171734 codecountry 10 1.746906 1.538453 3.402389 4061023 2.204469 8538889 2.073364 4.36569 2.057744 4842314 4642896 5726122 1706629 513939 3035798 4958777 7498692 5055307 0141893 0603273 6413462 1.185636 2520347 1294891 4.10 12.50 -0.90 -1.93 -0.24 1.68 n ua CORR lnKPW HK POP INF lnTRADE n va ll fu 0303383 6356762 -1.835365 -4.606414 -.5557082 -.0361981 0859595 8721548 6786655 0411917 4322495 47139 0.503 0.860 0.693 0.021 0.014 0.041 0.001 0.031 0.004 0.001 0.000 0.000 -.204064 -.1590847 -.1216306 0263848 0401969 0079613 118438 0181425 0909238 1432958 2247962 1810707 1000633 1327408 1828771 331041 3599762 3619366 4870758 3878081 479555 5569564 6670564 6403822 oi m 0.000 0.000 0.367 0.054 0.807 0.093 at nh z z ht vb k jm 2.695982 2.448444 4.524688 7405953 3.211771 1.448894 3.045267 5.835406 3.048566 n y te re 59 | P a g e va 7978302 6284619 2.280089 0716092 1.197167 2588836 1.101462 2.895973 1.066922 n 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.017 0.000 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.000 a Lu 3.61 3.31 5.94 2.38 4.29 2.81 4.18 5.82 4.07 om l.c gm -0.67 -0.18 0.39 2.30 2.45 2.05 3.22 2.15 2.88 3.32 3.95 3.51 t to ng hi ep w n lo ad ju y th yi pl ua al n ll fu oi m 3.82 3.77 2.90 4.82 4.29 4.09 2.29 3.63 3.08 5.07 3.42 4.15 5.93 4.14 3.15 6.53 4.50 5.50 5.76 4.87 3.96 3.28 2.99 4.44 0.87 5.14 1.46 5.24 2.00 2.71 2.83 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.022 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.003 0.000 0.382 0.000 0.145 0.000 0.045 0.007 0.005 at nh z 3458827 4232305 4110162 9259941 5614395 4752785 4493824 300559 4437516 541825 4668999 2363552 580926 234758 435857 7605639 4799706 4705682 9610394 6245139 4616231 4110336 4520175 4637761 2403247 5221108 5068224 6537213 4572021 4257104 2552277 va 1.320382 1.596524 1.190477 4.460835 2.408012 1.942017 1.030055 1.092249 1.364851 2.74779 1.598227 9799807 3.44461 9726899 1.370982 4.966911 2.161386 2.587353 5.53483 3.043158 1.827407 1.347276 1.351488 2.057805 2099165 2.682068 7391134 3.422264 9145409 1.155446 7232453 n 11 12 13 14 15 16 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 1.998299 2.42604 1.996054 6.27575 3.508413 2.873545 1.910828 1.681334 2.234588 3.809748 2.513334 1.443228 4.583204 1.432807 2.225246 6.457589 3.102111 3.50965 7.418433 4.267182 2.732172 2.152887 2.237427 2.966789 6809444 3.705386 1.732467 4.703535 1.810641 1.989823 1.223482 -6.845216 -1.582028 z 642464 767007 3849 2.64592 1.307611 1.010488 1492817 5031638 4951136 1.685833 6831198 5167329 2.306016 5125727 5167182 3.476233 1.22066 1.665056 3.651227 1.819133 9226425 5416649 4655503 1.14882 -.2611113 1.658749 -.2542402 2.140994 0184412 3210695 2230081 vb -4.213622 1.342675 -3.14 0.002 CORR lnY lnY2 lnY3 lnIND lnTRADE -.0121529 -.2127534 0695479 -.0035329 -.0001234 1225995 0112272 5.839079 7102804 0287814 1219716 131145 -1.08 -0.04 0.10 -0.12 -0.00 0.93 0.279 0.971 0.922 0.902 0.999 0.350 year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 0653139 0058268 0057261 -.0052434 -.0247206 -.0022669 -.0692053 -.0466142 0532093 0501626 0546906 0630247 081528 1013487 1236887 1257049 1.23 0.12 0.10 -0.08 -0.30 -0.02 -0.56 -0.37 0.220 0.908 0.917 0.934 0.762 0.982 0.576 0.711 ht _cons jm lnE k -.0341579 -11.65714 -1.322576 -.0599435 -.2391834 -.13444 om n y te re 60 | P a g e va 1696023 1041438 1129176 1182827 1350713 1963728 1732201 1997629 n a Lu -.0389745 -.0924902 -.1014654 -.1287695 -.1845126 -.2009067 -.3116306 -.2929912 l.c gm 0098521 11.23163 1.461672 0528777 2389366 379639 t to 2010 2011 2012 2013 ng hi ep 1427697 1622441 174983 174838 -0.45 -0.41 -0.54 -0.49 0.655 0.683 0.587 0.622 -.3435315 -.3843409 -.4379105 -.428872 2161155 2516442 2480101 2564805 3.873793 4.521708 5.589867 2.460722 2.572531 1.557453 4.766364 4.450894 3.579143 3.73983 3.902654 4.945828 4.647854 4.152609 5.653883 3.796286 1.52349 4.41914 4.551338 4.7504 1.809827 5.138763 3.475906 3.256952 6.08737 5.60503 5.376487 4.00011 4.96552 2.927953 4.302254 3.639005 4.217874 -2.85002 4.268034 5.689501 1.833872 5.091777 3.671778 3.541048 3550075 3061543 5213277 1584537 5325837 1398438 4242101 7745316 3579767 3498884 3406514 3842061 1.052104 4574363 3461732 1446655 2194192 3158878 4449627 2904945 1305997 6038852 2717339 3058823 1.190145 3824607 5221879 9620206 6093354 3733593 3922734 0965216 3489424 2108493 4708524 2651936 6349924 1792792 2027823 2976371 10.91 14.77 10.72 15.53 4.83 11.14 11.24 5.75 10.00 10.69 11.46 12.87 4.42 9.08 16.33 26.24 6.94 13.99 10.23 16.35 13.86 8.51 12.79 10.65 5.11 14.66 10.30 4.16 8.15 7.84 10.97 37.70 12.09 -13.52 9.06 21.45 2.89 28.40 18.11 11.90 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.000 0.000 0.000 3.177992 3.921656 4.568083 2.150159 1.528686 1.283364 3.934927 2.93284 2.877521 3.054062 3.234989 4.192798 2.585767 3.256051 4.975396 3.512747 1.093436 3.800011 3.679227 4.181042 1.553856 3.95517 2.943318 2.657434 3.754729 4.855421 4.353017 2.114584 3.771245 2.196182 3.533412 3.449826 3.53396 -3.263277 3.34518 5.169731 5893094 4.740396 3.274332 2.95769 4.569595 5.121759 6.61165 2.771286 3.616376 1.831542 5.5978 5.968948 4.280764 4.425599 4.570318 5.698858 6.709941 5.049168 6.33237 4.079825 1.953544 5.038269 5.423449 5.319759 2.065797 6.322357 4.008495 3.856471 8.420011 6.354639 6.399956 5.885636 6.159796 3.659723 5.071096 3.828184 4.901789 -2.436763 5.190887 6.209271 3.078434 5.443158 4.069224 4.124406 w n lo ad ju y th yi n ua al n ll fu at nh z k jm om n a Lu n y te re 34.09054 va -26.60353 l.c gm 0.809 ht vb 0.24 z 15.48346 oi m 3.743505 va _cons pl codecountry 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 -.063708 -.0663484 -.0949502 -.0861958 61 | P a g e t to ng hi ep Endogenous variables: lnY lnE CORR Exogenous variables: lnKPW HK POP INF lnTRADE 2002.year 2003.year 2004.year 2005.year 2006.year 2007.year 2008.year 2009.year 2010.year 2011.year 2012.year 2013.year 2.codecountry 3.codecountry 4.codecountry 5.codecountry 6.codecountry 7.codecountry 8.codecountry 9.codecountry 10.codecountry 11.codecountry 12.codecountry 13.codecountry 14.codecountry 15.codecountry 16.codecountry 18.codecountry 19.codecountry 20.codecountry 21.codecountry 22.codecountry 23.codecountry 24.codecountry 25.codecountry 26.codecountry 27.codecountry 28.codecountry 29.codecountry 30.codecountry 31.codecountry 32.codecountry 33.codecountry 34.codecountry 35.codecountry 36.codecountry 37.codecountry 38.codecountry 39.codecountry 40.codecountry 41.codecountry 42.codecountry lnY2 lnY3 lnIND w n lo ad ju y th yi pl n ua al n va ll fu oi m at nh z z ht vb k jm om l.c gm n a Lu n va y te re 62 | P a g e