(Luận văn) the influence of psychological factors of individual investors on the target of invectors in vietnam stock market

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HOCHIMINH CITY t to ng - - hi ep w n lo ad ju y th yi pl al n ua NGUYỄN BÍCH CHƯƠNG n va ll fu The influence of psychological factors of individual investors on the target of oi m investors in Vietnam stock market at nh z MASTER OF BUSINESS z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re HO CHI MINH CITY, 2014 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING t to UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HOCHIMINH CITY ng hi - - ep w n lo ad ju y th yi pl n ua al n va fu ll NGUYỄN BÍCH CHƯƠNG oi m at nh The influence of psychological factors of individual investorson the target of z z investors in Vietnam stock market k om l.c SUPERVISOR: Dr TRẦN HÀ MINH QUÂN gm MASTER THESIS(Honours) jm ht vb MAJOR: FINANCE / ACCOUNTING an Lu n va ey t re HO CHI MINH CITY, 2014 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I wish to acknowledge the support of my supervisors, Dr Tran Ha Minh Quan t to ng who tirelessly encouraged and guided me in the completion of this research and was hi ep always available to tune me in the right direction I also express the most enthusiastically grateful to my professors at w n lo International School of Business, University of Economics, Ho Chi Minh City, for ad ju y th their teaching and guidance during my course I wish to recognise the support and encouragement I received from my friends yi pl to help each other to complete our theses ua al n I wish to thank my mum who has always supported me in my goals and equally n va encouraged me in my studies fu ll I wish to thank my company, Dong Nai Urban Environment Service Company oi m z course at nh Limited for creating favorable conditions of time and money for me to complete my z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re Abstract Economic activities appeared thousands of years ago, when people just t to exchange each other‟s basic necessities, until great progress today, economy have ng hi been extensively studied, but behavioral finance is a new area Behavioral finance ep theories, which are based on the psychology, attempt to understand how emotions and w n cognitive errors influence individual investors‟ behaviors lo ad This study examines the relationship between investors‟ sentiment and their y th ju target on Vietnam stock market There are many psychological factors that affect yi pl performance of investors, but this paper focus on four psychological factors of al n ua individual investors: Overconfident, ExcessiveOptimism, Psychology of Risk and n va Herd Behavior The target of investors is investor look for short-term arbitrage or fu ll dividend income and capital gains in the long-term m oi The servey was conducted at some sercurities companies at Ho Chi Minh City nh at and Bien Hoa city, 400 questionaires were distributed directly to investors, 214 votes z z ht vb was eligible The results show that there is existence of psychological factors of k jm individual investors in the stock market and they impact the target of investors l.c gm As there are limited studies about behavioral finance in Vietnam, this study is expected to contribute significantly to the development of this field in Vietnam om Keywords: Stock market, behavioral finance, overconfident, optimism, herd an Lu behavior, psychology of risk n va ey t re Abstract CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION t to 1.2 Problem statement ng hi 1.3 Scope ep 1.4 Research questions 1.5 Research Structure w n CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW AND HYPOTHESES lo ad 2.1 Target of investors y th 2.2 Review of psychological factors and hypotheses 10 ju yi 2.2.1 Overconfidence 10 pl 2.2.2 Excessive Optimism 11 al n ua 2.2.3 Psychology of Risk 13 n va 2.2.4 Herd Behavior 15 ll fu 2.2.5 Moderator variables 16 oi m 2.3 Model 18 nh CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY 19 at 3.1 Research process 19 z z 3.2 Data collection 19 vb jm ht 3.3 Measurement items 20 3.4 Pilot study 21 k gm 3.5 Main survey 22 l.c 3.6 Methodology of data analysis 22 om 3.6.1 Descriptive statistics 22 an Lu 3.6.2 Reliability analysis 22 3.6.3 Exploration factor analysis (EFA) 23 4.2 Identify the general behavior of individual investors 26 4.2.1 Overconfidence 26 ey 4.1 The main characteristics of the sample 24 t re CHAPTER 4: RESEARCH RESULTS 24 n va 3.6.4 Binary logistic regression 23 4.2.2 Excessive Optimism 27 4.2.3 Psychology of Risk 28 4.2.4 Herd behavior 29 t to ng 4.3 Exploring and measuring the psychological factor group constitutes the behavior of individual investors 29 hi ep 4.3.1 Over Confidence 30 4.3.2 Excessive Optimism 31 w n 4.3.3 Psychology of risk 32 lo ad 4.3.4 Hers behavior 33 y th 4.4 Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) 33 ju yi 4.5 Check the existence of the psychological factors 37 pl al 4.5.1 Overconfident 37 n ua 4.5.2 Excessive Optimism 37 n va 4.5.3 Psychology of Risk 38 ll fu 4.5.4 Herd behavior 39 oi m 4.6 The relationship between behavioral factors with gender, age and level 39 nh 4.7 The effect of behavioral factors to investors‟ target 43 at 4.8 Hypothesis testing result 44 z z CHAPTER5:CONCLUSION,IMPLICATIONS,AND LIMITATIONS 46 vb jm ht 5.1 Conclusion 46 5.2 Managerial implications 47 k gm 5.3 Limitation and for further research 51 l.c References 53 om APPENDIX 1: Questionnaire 56 an Lu APPENDIX 2: The frequency test of the general behavior of individual investors 58 n va ey t re CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Research background t to Vietnam's stock market was launched in 2000, in the first years, the market ng hi does not seem to really attract the attention of the wider public and the up and down ep movements of the market does not create social impact that may extend to affect w n theoperation of the economy as well as the lives of every citizen.But from the lo ad beginning to the mid of 2006, with growth reaching 60%, Vietnam stock market y th ju became the 2nd faster frowth “point” in the world anh the awakeing of the fledgling yi pl market is increasingly “fascinated” investers at domestic and abroad Many reasons al n ua are given to explain this strong growth, but the majority opinions, said that one of the n va main causes is psychological investing, investing with the movement of investors in ll fu domestic “Playing” the stock has been talking as a "fad", a "movement" spread with m oi stunning speed After a time developextremely strongly and considered as one channel nh at with highest interest, end of 2009 stock market peaked at 1,170 points and no brakes z z sliding bubble stock has burst, many investors were bankrupted… The sharp decline ht vb k jm of the VN-Index was affected by various factors such as tightening of monetary gm policies, especially lending for stock investment, high deposit interest rates, high om l.c inflation rate, and a recession of the US economy Lack of timely intervention of authorities was also areason why VN-Index fell dramatically Many comments and an Lu recommendations given by security companies or even global financial organizations ey difficult t re year growth of Ho Chi Minh stock market, Vietnamese investors‟ decisions are still n not help these analysts to save the VN-Index from remarkable declination After 13- va did not match with what has really happened Belief in the growth of stock market did t to ng hi ep w n lo ad ju y th yi pl n ua al n va ll fu oi m at nh 1.2 Problem statement z z Every theory, every model of efficient markets seems pointless in Vietnam vb jm ht stock market Maybe it's time to use the theory based on basic human psychology to k explain stock market anomalies Behavioral finance can be helpful in this case because gm 2008) om l.c it is based on psychology to explain why people buy or sell stocks (Waweru et al., an Lu Behavioral finance is a financial sector that proposes psychology-based theories n va to explain the abnormal stock market In behavioral finance, it is assumed that the ey t re information structure and the characteristics of market participants affect system investment decisions as individuals and as a result of market Behavioral finance attempts to explain and increase understanding of the theoretical models of investors, including the emotional processes involved and the extent to which they influence the decision-making process Basically, behavioral finance attempts to explain what, why, t to and how of finance and investment, from the human perspective There has been ng hi controversy about the true meaning and effect of financial behavior since the field ep itself is still developing and perfecting itself This evolution continues to occur w n because many scholars have a wide range of such diverse specialties and academic and lo ad professional Finally, behavioral finance studies of psychological factors and y th ju sociological processes that affect financial decisions of individuals, groups and yi pl organizations al n ua Noted by Daniel Kahneman in a speech entitled "Psychology and Market" at n va Northwestern University in 2000: "If you listen to financial analysts on the radio or on fu ll TV, you quickly learn that the market has a psychology Indeed, it has character It has m oi thoughts, beliefs, moods, and sometimes stormy emotions." at nh 1.3 Scope z z ht vb There are many psychological factors discovered through research that they k jm have a significant impact on the behavior of investors Among those, there are four l.c gm common psychological factors exist in almost every human being, there are: Overconfident, ExcessiveOptimism, Psychology of Risk and Herd Behavior om The research was conducted at some securities companies in Ho Chi Minh city an Lu and Bien Hoa city, ey This research focuses on understanding and analyzing the impact of the four t re investors‟ target? n investorsin Vietnam stock market and clarify the impact of psychological factors to va The goal of this research: prove there is existenceof psychological factors of psychological factors: over-confident, optimistic, attitude toward risk and herd behaviour to individual investors‟ target on Vietnam stock market t to ng 1.4Research questions hi ep The research focuses on achieving the following questions: • What are the behavioral variables influencing investors‟ target? The w n lo relationship between these variables ad Are there herd psychological effects on Vietnam stock market? • At which impact levels (if any) the behavioral factors influence the ju y th • yi pl individual investors‟ target at the VietNam Stock market? n ua al n va 1.5 Research Structure ll fu This thesis has five chapters oi m Chapter 1: Introduction, give the overview of the research and the problem need at nh to be solved z z Chapter 2: Literature review and hypotheses, describes theoretical background, k jm ht vb build the theoretical model and hypotheses hypotheses proposal om l.c gm Chapter 3: Methodology, appraise measurement scale, research model and methodology and evaluation an Lu Chapter 4: Research results, present the result after conducting the research n va ey t re Chapter 5: Conclution, implication and limitations 47 5.2 Managerial implications This part aims to discuss major findings from the results of previous part t to First, the findings from this study showed that explaining the behavior of ng hi ep individual investors can not rely on the standard finance theory, must be based on the theory of behavioral finance and individual investors on the stock market always were w n affected by psychological factors, this leads to the following consequences: lo ad Investors were influenced by many factors and psychological feelings ju y th - Individual investors werevulnerability and changefrequently their psychology, yi pl The theory of technical analysis and fundamental analysis are not compelling n - ua al depended on their status and position va n enough to explain the behavior of Vietnam stock market, instead, the core ll fu Psychological factors and emotions play an important role when developing at nh - oi m theory should be used is the financial behavior z regulatory policies and market management z vb Second, the testing results in Chapter show that herd behavior occurred on jm ht Vietnam stock market.Herd behaviorimpliedthat the market was inefficient, distorted k gm As a result, if the herd behavior is prolonged and systematic, it will make market l.c om unstable, even lead to the collapse Herd behavior was also one of the main reasons n va to 2011 an Lu that made the stock market growth rapidly from 2006 to 2007, and too cold from 2009 analysis Over time they will lose theirreason as well as quick-wittedtoresponse with ey always depend on the others‟ investment decisions, ignore their judgment and t re Herd behavior has created negative consequences for investors because they 48 changes of the market In Vietnam stock market,it is more dangerous when there are guidances, make price of the big investors, intent to corner the market t to ng At last, this thesis has explored the model measuresbehavior of individual hi ep investors in Vietnam stock market was composed of group elements, including 16items:Overconfidence, Excessive of Optimism, Psychology of Risk and Herd w n lo behavior.This result implied psychological factors govered the behavior of investors, ad ju y th that mean investors wereirrational like assumptions of standard financial At the same time, discovering model also dismissed the effectiveness of Vietnam stock market yi pl This result implied to construct an indicator of psychological of investor on the stock n ua al market n va ll fu And beside normal financial knowledge, investors need to know emotional oi m finance to control emotions during investmenting nh Control the psychological factors in investment at z z Individual investors should avoid the following psychological deviations: vb jm ht Avoid "stress in investment" The securities investment process is the process k that leads investors to a series of psychological conflict, whether they are aware or gm om l.c unconscious The findings of behavioral finance showed that, if investors are more aware about the doubts and unconscious factors, they can deal more effectively with an Lu anxiety and stress ey market The combination of overconfidence and pessimism make investors assess t re Overconfidence of investors‟ behavior is the main cause of the bubble in the stock n risk of holding stock and usually hold a low diversification levelportfolios va Avoid "Overconfidence" Investorsare too confident often underestimate the 49 excessive reliability level of their knowledge, underestimate risks and overestimate the ability to adjust the events, lead to the large transactions and speculative bubbles t to More excessive credulity, morerisk incurs ng hi Enhanced knowledge for investors ep To ensure the development of Vietnam stock market sustainability, the question w n is how to enhance training and disseminating knowledge and skills investment for lo ad investors, especially the individual investors ju y th For investors, beside equipped the knowledge of securities analysis, we yi pl recommend organize training courses on behavioral finance to help investors evaluate ua al n and analyze themselves the behavioral characteristics and then propose specific va n strategies and investment, avoid short-term investments, avoid the traps related to fu ll awareness and emotion When individual investors identify how to psychological oi m at nh factors can influence and govern their actions will help investors insulate individual z psychological factors and limit deviations in making investment decision z vb k jm ht Recommendations to the Stock exchange and securities firms: factors in Vietnam stock market om l.c gm Develop a measurable system of indicators of individual investors’ psychological The study results confirmed investors' behaviors were influenced by an Lu individual psychological factors: overconfidence, excessive optimism, herd behavior ey Stock Exchange build), VN30 (HCM Stock Exchange build), VIR50 (Securities t re quantitative indicators which were built by the stock exchange such as HNX30 (Hanoi n explored and tested Based on the results of this research, we propose, beside the va and psychology of risk These factors can be measured through 16 items, have been 50 Investment Report buid), we propose the stock exchanges should develop a measurable system of indicators behavioral of individual investors through a t to questionnaire as a reference index key ng hi Form derivatives market ep Vietnam stock market has formed and developed over 13 years Currently, we w n basically had enough conditions to form derivative securities markets The research lo ad results of chapter showed deviations in the behavior of individual investors, y th ju typically herd behavior Thus, to limit the herd mentality, apart from transparency of yi pl information and control information, to improve the operation mechanism of the stock al n ua price through enhance the relationship between stock market with other markets va n To enhance the performance of the market, to transparency and control fu ll informations, should improve the mechanism operation of the stock price through oi m at nh strengthening the regulation and interconnection from the stock market to other market The development of the derivatives market will create favorable conditions z z ht vb for investors to hedge and limit the deviations in the behavior of investors At the k jm same time, derivative markets will also enable the management agencies state to l.c gm regulate and manage the stock market and bond better However, the other side of derivative market is without good control will lead to speculation, market om an Lu manipulation, even lead to the crisis of the stock market Therefore, the state should develop policies to ensure the implementation of the derivative instruments is n va sustainable Some policies have to heed such as: limit the amount and the purchase Enhance the transparency of Vietnam stock market ey t re price, the demand for capital and mortgage when trading the derivative securities 51 To protect individual investors, should increase the transparency of Vietnam stock market The solution as follows: t to - Publish informations of the macroeconomic situation and the information related ng hi to Vietnam stock market ep - Decentralise the trading surveillance activities for the stock exchange, securities w n commission state only supervises the trading members lo ad Improve the violation sanctions on stock market Nowaday, violations in Vietnam y th ju stock market more and more sophisticated, one of the main reasons is the sanctions yi pl was not seriously, the frame sanction I still slight so no deterrent We recommend that al n ua State Securities Committee should modify the provisions of sanctions on stock market va n 5.3 Limitation and for further research fu ll One of limitations could be the coverage of this study, in term of geography, oi m at nh this research was conductedin only Ho Chi Minh City and Bien Hoa city, and in some z securities companies, can not cover the whole market Beside, survey process and data z jm ht vb collection have met with many difficulties, it was difficult to access investors, the current stock market period is not as attractive as before, the number of investors k gm participate in marketare not many as previous, the number of investors were surveyed l.c not many, only 214votes were satisfactory, so the results can not be completely om an Lu comprehensive the current market n va In addition, not only factors, but also there are many psychological factors investors, banks, and securities companiesshould also be explored to have more ey bias, hindsight bias, conservatism bias…Besides, the behaviors of institutional t re affect investors, such as: loss aversion bias, illusion of control bias, self attribution 52 reliable informations about the impacts of financial behaviors on Vietnam security market.So it is important to widen the scope of this study bothgeographically, sample- t to wise and human psychological factors to generalize the findings ng hi ep w n lo ad ju y th yi pl n ua al n va ll fu oi m at nh 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oi m □ Đại học (3) □ Sau đại học (4) at □ Cao đẳng (2) nh □ Phổ thông (1) z z vb II Nội dung chính: l.c gm □4 Rất đồng ý □1 □2 □3 □1 □2 □3 □4 □5 □1 □2 □3 □4 □5 □1 □2 □3 □4 □5 □1 □2 □3 □4 □5 □1 □2 □3 □4 □5 om □5 an Lu n va ey t re Anh/chị tự tin có khả lựa chọn cổ phiếu tốt nhà đầu tư khác Anh/chị hồn tồn kiểm sốt hoạt động đầu tư Anh/chị hiểu rõ cổ phiếu danh mục đầu tư Anh/chị hiểu rõ “sức khỏe” thị trường chứng khoán Anh/chị chưa thực giao dịch mang tính bốc đồng Trong thời điểm tại, anh/chị tiếp tục đầu tư thị trường chứng khốn Khơng Bình Đồng đồng thường ý ý k Hồn tồn khơng đồng ý jm ht Xin Anh/chị đánh giá mức độ đồng tình Anh/chị phát biểu sau đây: 57 t to ng hi Anh/chị tăng vốn đầu tư vào thị trường chứng khoán năm tới Anh/chị tin thị trường chứng khoán phục hồi năm sau Nếu số VN-Index giảm 5%, anh/chị tin số phục hồi nhanh chóng 10 Thị trường chứng khoán Việt Nam kênh đầu tư hấp dẫn 11 Anh/chị thích “những đợt sóng mạnh” để có hội tìm kiếm lợi nhuận cao 12 Anh/chị thích đầu tư vào cơng ty tiếng cơng ty tiếng tăm 13 Khi giá cổ phiếu giảm, anh/chị thường nắm giữ cổ phiếu khoãng thời gian để chờ đợi giá tăng lên lại 14 Anh/chị thích đầu tư vào cơng ty trả cổ tức ổn định 15 Anh/chị có tham khảo ý kiến người khác trước mua cổ phiếu (ý kiến của: nhà đầu tư khác, nhà phân tích thị trường, nhận định cơng ty chứng khốn, giao dịch viên…) 16 Nếu anh/chị có thông tin riêng ngược với xu hướng thị trường, anh chị thực giao dịch theo thơng tin anh/chị có 17 Anh/chị có dựa vào khối lượng giao dịch thị trường để định đầu tư 18 Anh/chị có dựa vào khối lượng giao dịch nhà đầu tư nước để định đầu tư ep w □2 □3 □4 □5 □1 □2 □3 □4 □5 □1 □2 □3 □4 □5 □1 □2 □3 □4 □5 □1 □2 □3 □4 □5 □1 □2 □3 □4 □5 □1 □2 □3 □4 □5 □1 □2 □3 □4 □5 □1 □2 □3 □4 □5 □2 □3 □4 □5 □3 □4 □5 □3 □4 □5 n □1 lo ad ju y th yi pl n ua al n va ll fu nh at z z □2 □2 l.c □ Thu thập cổ tức lãi vốn dài hạn om (2) an Lu □ Tìm kiếm chênh lệch giá ngắn hạn (1) gm □1 k jm ht □1 vb Xin chân thành cám ơn Anh /chị oi m 19 Mục tiêu đầu tư Anh/chị □1 n va ey t re 58 APPENDIX 2: The frequency test of the general behavior of individual investors Table 1: Overconfidence t to ng hi ep w n lo ad ju y th yi pl n ua al n va ll fu oi m at nh z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re 59 Table 2: Excessive Optimism t to ng hi ep w n lo ad ju y th yi pl n ua al n va ll fu oi m at nh z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re 60 Table 3: Psychology of Risk t to ng hi ep w n lo ad ju y th yi pl n ua al n va ll fu oi m at nh z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re 61 Table 4: Herd Behavior t to ng hi ep w n lo ad ju y th yi pl n ua al n va ll fu oi m at nh z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re