• Overview Vietnam’s Clean Energy Transition • Global and National Commitments • Different targets: NDC – PDP8 – JETP • Clean Energy Transition Roadmap • Technological Feasibility • Cost and Affordability • Energy Security • Grid Integration and Stability • Environmental Impact • Policy and Regulatory Framework • Stakeholder Engagement
Nhien Ngo Hanoi, 20 July 2023 • Overview Vietnam’s Clean Energy Transition • Global and National Commitments • Different targets: NDC – PDP8 – JETP • Clean Energy Transition Roadmap • • • • • • • Technological Feasibility Cost and Affordability Energy Security Grid Integration and Stability Environmental Impact Policy and Regulatory Framework Stakeholder Engagement Hanoi, 20 July 2023 Installed capacity 2011 – 2022 Installed capacity 2022 (Total: 78,8 MW) GW 77 80 69 70 17 60 55 50 39 40 34 30 23 20 43 10 25 18 28 45 49 17 19 Biomass 356 1% 17 Solar 16567 21% Import 619 1% Coal 25302 32% 22 20 78.8 GW 21 22 21 Wind 4667 6% 17 16 13 12 Oil 1579 2% 55% 10 2011 2012 2013 Coal 2014 Oil 2015 Gas 2016 Hydro 2017 Wind 2018 Solar 2019 Biomass 2020 Import 2021 2022 includes hydro, wind & solar Hydro 22345 28% Gas 7398 9% Source: VIET’s analyze based on the data published by EVN Jan 2023 TWh Power generation by sources 2011 - 2022 Power generation by sources 2022 (Total 268 TWh) 300 Average annual growth 4%/year Average annual growth 11%/year 250 237 243 11 255 30 Other 4.1 2% RE 34.8 13% 268 35 includes hydro, wind & solar 217 200 195 Gas 29.5 11% 180 161 150 100 48% 142 104 117 126 Hydro 95.0 35% 50 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Other 2016 RE 2017 Hydro 2018 Gas 2019 Coal 2020 2021 2022 Coal 105.0 39% Source: VIET’s analysis based on the data published by EVN Jan 2023 Installed capacity (GW) and share (%) by market participation Share of power capacity based on ownership in 2022 Import 0.6 1% Imported power plants, 0.8, 1% Strategic hydro power plants, 8.9, 11% EVN 8.9 11% EVNGENCO 4.6 6% Private 33.1 42% EVNGENCO 8.4 11% Direct trading power plants, 30.9, 38% Indirect trading power plants, 40.4, 50% EVNGENCO 7.6 9% BOT 7.7 10% TKV 1.8 2% PVN 6.1 8% Source: VIET’s analyze based on the data published by EVN Jan 2023 POWER PRODUCTION AND DEMAND BY AREA (BILLION KWH) Demand 800 600 95.89 121.86 123.19 121.39 Production North - Central transmission volume (GWh) 400 200 North to Centre 10 11 10 11 Centre to North 53.78 Centre – South transmission volume (GWh) 4000 24.48 3000 2000 1000 NORTH CENTRE SOUTH Source: VIET’s analyze based on the data published by EVN NLDC Jan 2023 Centre to South Southe to Centre 2022 Transitioning project (VND/kWh) Solar farm: 1.184,9 Floating solar: 1.508,27 Onshore wind: 1.587,12 Offshore wind: 1.815,95 9.21 GW solar (150 plants) 7.66 GW RTS (104k systems) 5.46 GW wind (105 plants) Technology Ceiling price (VND/kWh) Solar farm 1.184,9 Floating solar 1.508,27 Onshore wind 1.587,12 Offshore wind 1.815,95 Source: MOIT, Decision 21/QD-BCT dated Jan 2023 Source: EVN, updated to 14 Jul 2023 https://www.evn.com.vn/c3/nang-luong-tai-tao/Cac-du-an-NLTT-chuyen-tiep 141-2014.aspx Capacity of plants participate in power market by 2022 • By end of 2021, 47.3 GW (61% total system capacity) participated in power market • 2.9 GW expected to join directly in 2022 • Plants 1 regulated > regulated