(Luận văn) does global financial crisis impact on east asian export

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES t to HO CHIMINHCITY THE HAGUE ng hi VIETNAM THE NETHERLANDS ep w n VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS lo ad PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS ju y th yi pl ua al n DOES GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS IMPACT ON va n EAST ASIAN EXPORT? ll fu oi m at nh z BY z vb TRAN PHAM HOAI TRINH k jm ht om l.c gm an Lu MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS n va ey t re HO CHI MINH CITY, May 2014 UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES HO CHIMINHCITY THE HAGUE t to VIETNAM THE NETHERLANDS ng hi ep w n VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS lo ad PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS ju y th yi pl ua al n DOES GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS va n IMPACT ONEAST ASIAN EXPORT? fu ll A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of oi m MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS at nh z z By k jm ht vb TRAN PHAM HOAI TRINH an Lu Dr DINH CONG KHAI om l.c gm Academic Supervisor: n va ey t re HO CHI MINH CITY, May 2014 t to ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ng hi ep I would like to take this opportunities to send my special thanks to Dr Nguyen Trong Hoai who has inspired initiatives and passion of global financial w n crisis to me to carry out this interesting study; my sincere gratitude to Dr Dinh lo ad Cong Khai for his scientific guidance and invaluable advices, which he has ju y th provided throughout the time of preparation and accomplishment of this paper; my thanks to my classmates Anh Thu, Thu Huong, Thuy Thanh and my loved yi pl daughters Moon and May who always give me their restless assistance and al n ua encouragement when I was in trouble n va ll fu oi m at nh z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re ABSTRACT t to ng The global financial crisis in 2008 was initially a single crisis in the US hi ep subprime market After very short time, the crisis has quickly escalated and spread its impact to all over the world As stated by UNDP, very quickly through w n international trade, the crisis has been transmitted from the West to the East This lo ad paper aims to find out how this financial crisis impacts the trade of East Asian y th countries More particularly, this paper tries to find out how, and to what extent, ju does the global financial crisis impact exports of East Asia By studying the yi pl impacts of GDP, financial sector quality (measured by domestic credit), import ua al demand on exports and by observing the change of these impacts before and after n the global financial crisis, the effect of the global financial crisis on export will be va n identified Data of exports, domestic credits and import demands are collected from ll fu 2001 to 2010 for countries in East Asia The data is balanced from country to m oi country, then balanced panel data will be used for model testing Moreover, the at nh Hausman test used to test the panel data is significant with fixed effect model The results finally show that the global financial crisis started in 2008 has not changed z z impact’s magnitudes of GDP, financial sector quality and imports demand on vb jm ht exports of East Asia during crisis k Key words: global financial crisis, international production fragmentation, om l.c gm triangular trade network, financial integration an Lu n va ey t re TABLE OF CONTENTS t to ng CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION hi ep 1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY 1.2 PROBLEM STATEMENT 10 w n 1.3 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES 10 lo 1.4 RESEARCH QUESTIONS 11 ad y th 1.5 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 11 ju 1.6 OUTLINE OF STRUCTURE 11 yi pl ua al CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 13 n 2.1 LITERATURE REVIEW & EMPIRICAL STUDIES 13 va n *Impact of economic growth on exports 15 ll fu *Impact of financial sector quality on exports 16 oi m *Impact of import demand on exports 17 at nh 2.2CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 21 z z CHAPTER 3: OVERVIEW of EAST ASIAN EXPORTS and FINANCIAL SYSTEM vb 22 ht jm 3.1 EAST ASIAN EXPORTS 22 k 3.2 EAST ASIAN FINANCIAL SYSTEM 26 l.c gm CHAPTER 4: ECONOMETRIC MODEL and ESTIMATION STRATEGY 29 om 4.1 ECONOMETRIC MODEL 29 an Lu 4.2 ESTIMATION STRATEGY 31 4.3 DATA 32 n va 5.2 VARIABLES and CORRELATION MATRIX 43 ey 5.1 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTIC 36 t re CHAPTER 5: ECONOMETRIC RESULTS and FINDINGS DISCUSSION 36 5.3 EMPIRICAL RESULTS and FINDINGS DISCUSSION 44 t to CHAPTER 6: POLICY IMPLICATIONS and CONCLUSION 50 ng hi 6.1 POLICY IMPLICATIONS 50 ep 6.2 CONCLUSION 52 6.3 LIMITATION 53 w n lo ad REFERENCES 55 y th ju APPENDIX 59 yi pl n ua al n va ll fu oi m at nh z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re LIST OF TABLE, CHART & FIGURE t to Type Page China Manufactured export structure 25 Manufactured export composition 26 Cross-border loans during Q4 2007 – Q4 2010 42 Regional consumption goods export performance during crisis 47 ng Title hi ep Chart Chart w n lo Chart ad Chart y th International production fragmentation –vertical specialization 18 ju Figure yi model pl The conceptual framework 21 Figure Share of East Asian economies in the value of world exports Figure Triangular trade network structure Figure The rest of East Asia export to China (% of total export) Table East Asia regional exports share in total exports Table Share of intermediate goods in total export ua al Figure n 22 va n 23 fu ll 24 oi m 24 nh at 25 z z from the rest of East Asian countries to China vb List of variables and expected sign of effect 31 Table Growth of total merchandise export (2008Q3-2019Q3: % change) Table East Asian export growth during crisis Table GDP growth 2000-2010 Table Growth rate of China’s intermediate goods import from East Asian jm ht Table 37 k gm 38 l.c 39 om an Lu Vs China’s export to EU & US 40 va Net foreign assets in domestic banks 41 Table Skewness/Kurtosis test STATA output 43 Table 10 Pairwise test STATA output 43 n Table ey t re t to ng hi ep Empirical result 44 Table 12 Variance inflation factor (VIF) 45 Table 13 East Asia regional export composition 46 Table 14 Coefficient comparison 49 Auxiliary regression results 59 Hausman test for the sample with China 60 Hausman test for the sample without China 61 Table 11 Appendix w n lo Appendix ad Appendix y th Full regression result for the sample with China 62 ju Appendix yi Full regression result for the sample without China 63 Appendix East Asia regional total exports 64 Appendix East Asia regional intermediate goods exports 66 pl Appendix n ua al n va ll fu oi m at nh z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re CHAPTER INTRODUCTION t to ng hi The first chapter consists of six parts to introduce the general issues of the ep study The first part provides the background of the study The second part raises w the problem to be addressed The third part presents the research objectives The n lo fourth part sets out the research questions to be answered in this study The fifth ad part is research methodology and the last part is outline of the study ju y th yi 1.1 Background of the study pl al n ua East Asian countries1 are export-led growth countries Export so far have been va the key engine for growth and received many supports from the government for n better performance During the recent decades, in this region, China has rapidly fu ll increased exports of manufactured products to the US, EU and became a major m oi trade partner with the US, EU The growth of China’s manufacturing export is also nh at supported by the supply of intermediate inputs of other East Asian countries In this z way, a trade network was formed between US, EU, China and other East Asian z ht vb countries This network is called the triangular trade network and soon became a jm primary growth engine for East Asia (Ando, 2006) It is believed that East Asian k countries can maintain regional growth independently based on this network and gm l.c would not rely heavily on the out-of-region economies’ demand and supply This belief was built up based on the decoupling thesis2 which was raised by many om researchers before the US financial crisis However, in fact, when the US financial an Lu crisis spreads to East Asia, exports of this region in some ways was affected and ey t re East Asian countries in this study includes Japan, China, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, The Philippines, Singapore and Thailand 2 Decoupling refers to the phenomenon of a weakening impact of advanced countries’ demand and supply shock on performance of East Asian economies since it’s increasingly independent from global economy development n va decline significantly (Chul, 2011) So is it true that the US financial crisis impacts exports of East Asian countries and is the decoupling thesis unreal are the questions t to that I am concerned with ng hi ep 1.2 Problem statement East Asia is the region where export-led growth strategy has boosted the w n economy since 1960s Exports hold the crucial role and are the key engine for lo ad economic development of this region Along with its export-based development, y th according to the decoupling theses, the increasingly intra-regional trade in East ju yi Asia has lightened the impacts of external demand and supply shock on growth and pl made this region become self-contained development Therefore export downfall in al n ua East Asia after 2008 received much attention of researchers in finding how the n va global financial crisis impacted this region ll fu So far, many researches has focused on the impact of the global financial crisis oi m to international trade through trade finance constraint (Chauffour & Malouche, nh 2011), contraction of global supply chains (Escaith, 2010), and protectionism This at research is going to find out the key determining factors of East Asian exports z z performance and identify if the global financial crisis is able to change the impact’s vb jm ht magnitude of these factors on exports of East Asia Through these findings we can answer the question of whether the global financial crisis had impacted on exports k l.c gm of East Asian countries 1.3 Research objectives om  The overall objective: The overall objective of this research is to understand an Lu whether the global financial crisis impacts exports of East Asian countries GDP, financial sector quality and import demands Then, by observing the 10 ey global financial crisis on East Asian exports will be clarified t re changes of these effects when the global financial crisis occurs, impact of n va  The specific objective: This research aims to identify impacts on exports of final goods demand and the world demand significantly influence exports performance, especially the regional intermediate goods demand t to During the global financial crisis, most of these determining factors have fallen at ng hi the first hit, but then very quickly rebound from resection The intra-regional ep demand in this region is strong enough to weaken impacts of the contraction of w consumption demand, the drying up of trade finance transmitted from developed n lo countries to East Asia The strong dependence on regional demand in the context of ad increasing participation in the regional triangular trade networks enables exports of y th this region growth independently from shocks of the global economies The ju yi decoupling of East Asia in trade is real This region is expected to be more self- pl contained in future with speedy economic integration among regional countries and al n ua appropriated free trade agreements and activist fiscal policy n va 6.3 Limitation ll fu oi m Researchers have often use ration of private credit to GDP to measuring financial nh development For example, Jung Hur and his partners in 2004 used this ratio for the at research about impact of financial development and asset tangibility on export z z Beck (2002) used it for his research of the link between financial development and vb international trade Recently, Arcand et al (2012) used this ratio to examine if the ht k jm effect on output growth of financial development vanished when credit to the gm private sector reaches 100% of GDP Some other empirical evidence on financial l.c system’s role in economic development uses these variations of this measure om However, it is commented recently that this ratio does not provide a sufficient an Lu basis for assessing financial development For a better measurement, some researchers have compiled and released the Global Financial Development recalculated of the Financial Development and Structure dataset which is 53 ey 1960 to 2011 The Global Financial Development Database is the updated and t re containing annual financial-system indicators for more than 200 countries from n va Database (World Bank 2012) It is an available dataset on financial development, introduced in 2000 The database is being updated with more financial systems, and more data are compiled t to The Global Financial Development Database uses many indicators to measure the ng hi development of financial system These indicators are categorized in four broad ep categories financial depth, financial access, financial system efficiency and w financial system stability The financial depth is measured by the size of financial n lo institutions and markets Financial access is measured by degree to which ad individuals can use financial services Efficiency of financial system is measured y th by facilitating financial transactions and the stability is measured by stability of ju yi financial institutions and markets All of these four dimensions are measured both pl for financial institutions and financial markets, such as banks and insurance al n ua companies, bond and stock markets va If we focus on one characteristic, for example financial efficiency, we would n mean missing other important aspects of financial systems The suggestion is to use fu ll the indicators of the Global Financial Development Database for further study m oi The research also omits the tariff factor which can bring comparative advantages nh at in intra-regional trade of East Asia This factor would influence on export pattern as z well as export performance The suggestion is to add tariff in export model to z ht vb investigate how tariff support East Asian countries to increase intra-regional trade jm in final consumption goods, diversify export products and enhance the decoupling k of East Asia om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re 54 REFERENCES t to 01 Ando, M (2006) Fragmentation and Vertical Intra-industry Trade in East Asia The North American Journal of Economics and Finance 17 (2006) 257-281 Retrieved from www.sciencedirect.com ng hi ep 02 Amighini, A ( 2005) China in the international fragmentation of production: evidence from the ICT industry The European Journal of Comparative Economics Vol.2,n.2,pp.203-219 Retrieved from http://eaces.liuc.it w n lo ad 03 Amiti, M., & Weinstein, D.E (2009) Exports and Financial Shocks Center for Economic Policy Research Discussion paper series No.7590 Retrieved from www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP5790.asp ju y th yi pl 04 Arcand, J.L., Berkes, E., & Panizza, U (2012) Too much finance? IMF working paper No.WP/12/161 Retreived from www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2012 n ua al n va 05.Athukorala, P., & Kohpaiboon, A (2009) Intra-Regional trade in East Asia: The Decoupling Fallacy, Crisis, and policy Challenges ADBI Working Paper Series No.177 Retrieved from http://www.adbi.org/working- paper/2009/12/11/ 3416 ll fu oi m at nh 06 Athukorala, P., & Menon, J (2010) Global Production Sharing, trade Patterns and Determinants of Trade Flows The Australian national University working papers No.2010/06 Retrieved from http://rspas.anu.edu.au/economics/publications z z vb k jm ht 07 Beck, T (2002) Financial Development and International trade Is there a link? 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Credit Conditions and International Trade during the Global Financial Crisis National Bureau of Economic Research Working paper 16174 Retrieved from www.nber.org/papers/w16174 yi pl al n ua 15.Chul, P.Y (2011) The Global Financial Crisis: Decoupling of East Asia – myth or reality? ADBI working paper series No.289 Retrieved from http://www.adbi.org/working- paper/2011/06/22/4615 n va fu ll 16.Coppel, J., & Davies, M (2003) Foreign Participation in East Asia’s banking sector International Department Reserve Bank of Australia report Retrieved from www.bis.org oi m at nh z 17.Escaith, H., & Gonguet, F (2009) International Trade and Real Transmission Channels of Financial shocks in Globalized Production Networks World Trade organization Economic Research and Statistics Division Staff Working paper ERSD-2009-06 Retrieved from http://www.wto.org/english/res_e z jm ht vb k 18.Escaith, H.,Lindenberg,N., & Miroudot,S.(2010) International Supply Chains and Trade Elasticity in Times of Global Crisis World Trade organization Economic Research and Statistics Division Staff Working paper ERSD-2010-08 om l.c gm an Lu 19 Felbermayr, G.J., & Kohler, W.K (2004) Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World Trade CESifo working paper, No.1276 Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10419/18914 ey t re 56 n va 20.Gagnon, J.E (2008) Grow-Led Exports: Implications for the Cross-Country Effects of Shocks to Potential Output International Finance Discussion papers No 822 Retrieved from www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp t to 21 Gaulier, G., Lemon, F., & Unal-Kesenci, D (2005) China’s Integration in East Asia: Production Sharing, FDI & High-Tech Trade Center D’etudes Prospectives et D’informations InternationalesWorking paper No 2005-09 Retrieved from www.cepii.fr ng hi ep 22 Gujarati, D.N, & Porter,D.C (2009) Basic Econometrics The McGraw-Hill Company, Inc w n 23 Hummels,D., Ishii,J., & Yi, K.M (1999) The Nature and Growth of Vertical Specialization in World Trade Federal Reserve bank of New York Retrieved from http://www.fednewyork.org/research/staff_reports lo ad y th ju 24 Hur, J, Raj,M., & Riyanto, Y.E (2004) The Impact of Financial Development and Asset Tangiblity on Export National University of Singapore yi pl n ua al 25 Inomata, S., Meng.B., & Uchida,Y.(2009) Asia Beyond the Crisis-Vision from International Input-Output Analyses Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO Spot survey No.31.2009 Retrieved from www.ide.go.jp va n 26.Jongwanich, J (2007) Determinants of Export Performance in East and Southeast Asia Economics and Research Department working paper series No.106 ISSN 1655-5252 ll fu oi m at nh 27.Kawai, M (2009) The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Asia and Asia’s Responses Crisis Development and Long term global responses: Insights from Asia and Europe AEEF Conference, Kiel 07 July 2009 z z vb k jm ht 28 Kiendrebeogo, Y (2012) Understanding the Causal Links between Financial Development and International Trade Serie etudes et documents du cerdi No 34 ISSN 2114-7957 Retrieved from www.cerdi.ord/ed gm om l.c 29.Kuroiwa, I., & Kuwamori, H (2010) Shock Transmission Mechanism of the Economic Crisis in East Asia: An Application of International Input-Output Analysis Institute of Developing Economies (IDE), JETRO discussion paper No.220 an Lu ey t re 57 n va 30 Laszlol, K (2004) Export-Led Growth, Growth-Driven Export, Both or None? Granger Causality Analysis on OECD countries Applied Econometrics and International Development AEEADE Vol 4-1 (2004) Retrieved from www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm t to 31.Mehrara, M., & Firouzjaee, B.A (2011) Granger Causality Relationship between Export Growth and GDP Growth in Developing Countries: Panel Cointegration Approach International Journal of Humanities and Social Science Vol.1 No.16 November 2011 ng hi ep 32 Obashi, A (2008) Stability of Production Networks in East Asia: Duration and Survival of Trade Faculty of Economics, Keio University, Japan w n 33.Razmi, A., & Hermandez, G (2011) Can Asia Sustain an Export-Led Growth Strategy in the Aftermath of the Global Crisis? An Empirical Exploration ADBI working paper series No.329 Retrieved from www.adbi.org.workingpaper/2011/12/02 lo ad ju y th yi 34.Redding, S & Venables, A.J (2003) South-East Asian export performance: external market access and internal supply capacity Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 17 (2003) 404-431 doi.1016/j.jjie.2003.09.002 pl ua al n 35.Taylor, J.B (2009) The Financial Crisis and The Policy responses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong National Bureau of Economic Research Working paper 14631 Retrieved from www.nber.org/papers/w14631 n va ll fu oi m Index: at nh 36 Developing countries in International Trade 2005 – Trade and development Index Chapter 2: Determinant of export performance z z k jm ht vb 37 Classification by Broad Economic Categories Department of Economic and Social Affairs Statistics Division Statistical papers series M No.53, Rev.4 om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re 58 APPENDIX t to Appendix 1: Auxiliary regression results ng hi R2 ep GDP = 36.63204 t= (0.93) Mean VIF -1.261458lnFGD (-1.85) +3.879901lnIGD (6.98) -3.189072lnWDD (-.179) 0.5116 4.02 -4.70631GDP (-3.25) +53.4373lnFGD (7.64) +6.412287lnIGD (0.67) -119.474lnWDD (-5.94) 0.8149 2.88 w -0.261901NDC (-3.25) n NDC= 2097 t= (4.43) lo ad y th lnFGD= -16.94415 -0.347437GDP t= (-2.70) (-1.85) lnIGD= -3784885 t= (-0.59) +0.0081904NDC +0.6096617lnIGD (7.64) (6.40) ju yi +0.8626509lnWDD (3.03) 0.8648 2.33 pl n ua al +0.1015209GDP +0.0009337NDC +0.5791886lnFGD +0.4875982lnWDD (6.98) (0.67) (6.4) (1.69) 0.7788 3.23 -0.002679NDC (-5.94) +0.1262022lnFGD +0.750867lnIGD (3.03) (1.69) 0.3695 4.15 n -0.128499GDP (-1.79) va lnWDD= 21.34844 t= (41.80) ll fu oi m at nh z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re 59 Appendix 2: Hausman test for the sample with China t to ng Coefficients (B) (b-B) random Difference hi (b) fixed ep sart(diag(V_b-V_B) S.E w n -20.6135 -187.2635 166.65 67.73887 GDP 0.0065001 0.0134641 -0.006964 0.0043244 NDC 0.0007247 -0.0001614 0.0008861 0.002802 lnFGD 0.256527 0.3037484 -0.047221 0.2184962 lnIGD 0.4904175 0.7587227 -0.268305 0.2434492 -0.3711342 0.6476487 0.278285 -0.196359 0.0660991 -0.000553 0.0007496 -0.97203 0.343465 0.2559511 2.714899 lo Dum ad ju y th yi lnWDD 0.1962671 DumNDC 0000368 0005898 DumFGD -.043372 DumIGD 1759848 fu -0.0000921 -.5350221 0.7110069 DumWDD 7411544 7.406739 -6.665585 n ua al pl DumGDP 0.2765145 va 9286575 n ll oi m at nh b = consistent under Ho and Ha; obtained from xtreg z B = inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho; obtained from xtreg z gm Prob>chi2 = k chi2(4) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B) = 35.86 jm ht vb Test: Ho: difference in coefficients not systematic 0.0000 om l.c an Lu n va ey t re 60 Appendix 3: Hausman test for the sample without China t to (B) (b-B) fixed random Difference sart(diag(V_bV_B) S.E -399.021 -330.337 -68.6841 180.7349 GDP 0.006268 0.006811 -0.00054 0.003702 NDC 0.000624 -0.00039 0.001011 0.002864 lnFGD 0.022696 0.487199 -0.4645 0.225097 0.567593 0.406151 0.161442 0.234325 ng Coefficients (b) hi ep w n Dum lo ad ju y th yi pl lnIGD 0.492846 al -0.05828 0.551129 0.315701 DumGDP 0.09901 0.244146 -0.14514 0.080834 DumNDC 0.003647 0.002211 0.001436 0.001985 DumFGD 0.965686 1.161607 -0.19592 0.580043 DumIGD -0.92533 -0.62113 -0.30421 0.596998 DumWDD 16.31259 13.14683 3.165764 7.433544 n ua lnWDD n va ll fu oi m at nh z b = consistent under Ho and Ha; obtained from xtreg z vb B = inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho; obtained from xtreg k om l.c gm chi2(4) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B) = 51.63 Prob>chi2 = 0.0000 jm ht Test: Ho: difference in coefficients not systematic an Lu n va ey t re 61 Appendix 4: Full regression result for the sample with China t to ng hi ep Number of obs Group variable: panelID Number of groups = R-sq: within = 0.9481 Obs per group: = 10 Fixed-effects (within) regression w avg = n between = 0.9415 lo y th F(11,61) 10 = 101.24 ju Prob > F yi corr(u_i, Xb) = 0.6292 t P>|t| [95% Conf Interval] Std.Err 80.42149 -0.26 0.799 -181.4262 140.1992 0.0065001 0.004812 1.35 0.182 -0.0031228 0.016123 NDC 0.0007247 0.001223 0.59 0.556 -0.0017206 0.00317 lnFGD 25652701 0.095396 2.69 0.009 0.0657719 0.4472821 lnIGD 49041745 0.105908 4.63 0.0000 0.2786417 0.7021932 lnWDD 27651447 0.136371 2.03 0.047 0.0038234 0.5492055 DumGDP -0.0000921 0.070137 -0.00 0.999 -0.1403401 0.1401558 DumNDC 0.0000368 0.001356 0.03 -0.0026749 0.0027486 DumFGD -0.043372 0.3414 -0.13 0.899 -0.7260436 0.6392995 DumIGD 0.1759848 0.2614 0.67 0.503 -0.3467176 0.6986872 DumWDD 0.7411544 3.233065 0.23 0.819 -5.723759 7.206067 _cons 2.368356 -0.21 0.835 -5.230012 4.241628 n ua n ll fu m at GDP nh -20.613502 oi Dum al Coef = 0.0000 va pl lnEXP 80 10.0 max = ad overall = 0.9303 = z z vb k jm ht 0.978 om l.c an Lu sigma_u | 33451915 sigma_e | 09509824 n ey t re F(7, 61) = 46.33 Prob > F = 0.0000 va rho | 92522596 (fraction of variance due to u_i) F test that all u_i=0: gm -0.494192 62 Appendix : Full regression result for the sample without China t to ng hi ep Number of obs Group variable: panelID Number of groups = R-sq: within = 0.9598 Obs per group: = 10 Fixed-effects (within) regression w n between = 0.8773 lo ad overall = 0.8276 y th F(11,52) avg = 10.0 max = 10 = 80 = 112.91 ju Prob > F yi corr(u_i, Xb) = 0.6125 Dum -399.021 GDP 0.006268 0.003782 NDC 0.000624 0.001022 lnFGD 0.022696 0.081794 lnIGD 0.567593 0.088482 6.41 lnWDD 0.492846 0.124921 3.95 DumGDP 0.09901 0.063516 1.56 DumNDC 0.003647 0.001548 2.36 0.022 DumFGD 0.965686 0.419747 2.30 0.025 DumIGD -0.92533 0.405484 -2.28 0.027 DumWDD 16.31259 5.352741 3.05 0.004 _cons 2.020906 -1.74 0.088 ua al Coef gm pl lnEXP 130.7808 n n va t P>|t| [95% Conf Interval] -3.05 0.004 -661.452 -136.59 1.66 0.104 -0.00132 0.013857 0.61 0.544 -0.00143 0.002674 0.783 -0.14143 0.186827 0.000 0.390041 0.745145 0.000 0.242175 0.743518 -0.02844 0.226465 0.000541 0.006753 0.123402 1.80797 ll fu 0.28 oi m at nh z 0.125 z k -1.739 -0.11167 5.571529 27.05365 -7.56829 0.542201 om l.c an Lu sigma_u | 4740099 jm ht vb -3.51304 Std.Err = 0.0000 sigma_e 07362627 n va rho | 97644206 (fraction of variance due to u_i) F(6, 52) = 72.56 Prob > F = 0.0000 ey t re F test that all u_i=0: 63 ad ju y th yi pl Appendix 5: East Asia regional total exports China 85,755,905,258 3,991,424,687 1,336,022,897 8,150,875,748 2,600,142,955 47,412,288,003 12,218,166,777 8,627,067,922 15,821,023,638 22,016,491,408 4,697,801,267 3,430,114,158 8,018,516,874 4,186,270,501 2,116,691,260 21,153,204,678 8,263,052,942 3,098,156,765 1,249,980,322 6,953,956,398 3,595,359,718 22,477,037,878 11,280,881,601 3,705,126,770 13,815,059,074 5,559,084,762 4,514,687,138 350,053,455 1,397,779,617 2,591,215,373 24,154,613,910 19,786,203,886 13,163,114,177 8,443,532,821 30,037,126,763 3,773,127,762 11,500,235,363 2,964,041,143 15,872,400,735 2,610,153,086 6,446,759,692 2,145,059,712 6,327,185,310 11,778,172,622 100,630,528,590 55,680,941,527 17,661,655,935 7,384,189,432 28,134,060,408 12,003,399,243 7,453,017,882 4,914,093,276 1,768,097,021 9,739,257,862 2,979,196,449 13,796,815,999 9,030,165,602 16,985,066,714 24,580,191,814 5,516,909,892 3,612,308,958 10,246,178,589 4,456,538,444 2,471,346,579 21,988,128,464 8,405,765,980 2,779,866,009 1,325,367,604 9,565,985,290 7,643,911,270 22,902,372,709 98,299,977,169 8,403,259,722 76,501,472,450 4,174,612,217 22,829,337,657 15,148,769,945 4,716,388,387 15,650,649,818 6,284,086,071 5,633,243,595 487,149,867 7,284,294,278 1,753,636,315 26,238,806,145 21,890,394,148 13,017,270,051 10,094,859,807 32,058,230,473 4,838,385,694 14,284,028,285 4,285,784,265 17,356,057,213 2,862,794,966 7,350,513,893 2,491,597,688 16,459,731,926 114,564,484,818 72,763,877,241 21,358,918,656 27,472,018,820 9,049,191,546 6,176,138,532 1,945,795,193 55,485,841,537 14,881,478,324 9,287,550,497 5,628,887,281 3,996,689,845 y te 10,638,039,442 11,366,425,243 7,816,656,592 30,901,138,533 15,584,238,496 12,079,349,379 3,532,664,584 19,422,067,435 28,388,787,284 ac th 24,462,798,191 re 5,433,982,386 8,940,702,450 n 82,725,979,208 va 11,641,905,967 an 109,358,253,653 2,496,903,112 Lu 11,630,212,422 50,482,372,736 om Korea 7,458,829,520 l.c Japan 20,449,313,278 64,241,507,492 China Indonesia 9,699,334,158 Thailand 21,816,733,492 gm Singapore 5,622,125,613 k Philipines 13,447,704,414 jm Malaysia 43,974,700,120 ht Korea 90,482,236,809 vb Japan 2008 8,107,348,437 China Indonesia 8,871,172,886 z 2007 Thailand z Thailand Singapore at Singapore Philipines nh Philipines Malaysia oi Malaysia Korea m ll Korea Japan fu Japan Indonesia n Indonesia va 2006 China n From country/To country ua al Year 11,747,381,486 5,708,025,757 si eg cd 64 jg hg ad ju y th yi 5,378,492,911 570,153,502 7,676,103,509 2,472,799,337 1,916,537,036 24,936,695,218 14,471,513,235 11,272,818,119 31,467,183,213 5,648,183,038 5,507,361,343 18,967,193,066 3,541,583,750 8,983,129,750 2,870,866,248 7,190,273,908 fu 96,255,947,083 52,799,749,776 19,542,590,424 8,274,224,443 27,872,172,001 13,256,584,328 18,489,501,095 8,094,009,130 6,370,058,986 2,306,816,658 9,898,820,699 3,170,090,372 44,434,494,527 11,504,667,003 7,450,009,021 14,675,194,971 21,256,412,090 4,224,258,315 3,685,143,066 10,316,696,333 4,489,125,537 1,910,207,819 18,736,650,093 8,310,012,025 2,376,538,860 1,157,405,693 26,767,122,129 14,894,906,446 China 4,621,488,992 15,298,270,054 2,902,238,285 361,076,626 6,208,292,252 1,795,784,907 1,330,092,204 22,637,488,579 19,040,763,432 11,022,148,781 11,647,028,339 24,490,266,442 3,944,094,224 15,351,005,808 4,201,409,862 15,505,062,197 6,769,499,225 2,434,551,291 5,744,996,350 20,064,808,121 119,305,013,672 67,848,641,572 23,581,088,100 11,228,137,742 29,033,704,531 19,709,108,531 25,621,313,426 12,353,335,278 8,460,301,030 3,023,329,667 13,038,645,292 4,385,477,233 10,047,347,061 19,146,846,788 32,892,441,826 5,068,951,891 11,620,589,549 6,356,634,583 3,020,032,710 22,458,620,035 10,240,014,045 1,452,416,837 1,430,193,690 58,753,556,252 l.c 133,910,334,280 15,079,950,823 15,976,644,529 109,708,063,815 5,600,782,508 24,660,498,218 24,564,520,568 5,193,848,748 20,066,087,777 7,027,924,269 4,138,764,236 399,088,383 5,990,738,439 1,990,859,543 715,035,724 30,828,624,103 22,626,186,647 15,175,824,478 13,451,204,691 31,159,397,223 20,654,251,242 6,334,761,839 19,804,286,406 3,580,775,712 9,182,024,347 om 5,757,403,486 an Lu 9,395,023,502 va 5,215,682,829 12,032,082,889 n 3,539,797,210 6,651,464,783 y te re Thailand Singapore gm Philipines 2,716,609,482 k Malaysia 5,726,983,776 jm Korea 15,613,305,521 19,510,555,970 ht Japan 12,120,048,589 18,907,989,151 China Indonesia 1,426,903,058 4,456,340,099 vb Thailand 2,034,641,723 81,900,579,172 z Singapore 8,486,775,048 8,686,489,064 z Philipines 20,213,821,533 98,042,062,780 at Malaysia 2,525,603,149 nh Korea 11,480,865,980 oi Japan 13,534,156,873 m ll Indonesia 2010 7,227,379,329 n 2009 19,280,744,169 va Thailand 5,293,711,649 n Singapore 13,995,055,141 ua al Philipines pl Malaysia ac th Source : UNCtadstat 2013 si eg cd 65 jg hg ad ju y th yi pl ua al Singapore Thailand 5,641,361,297 37,012,163,839 29,221,017,975 7,411,747,009 3,740,081,164 11,859,724,580 6,101,180,708 7,656,770,107 18,411,985,475 7,088,084,554 3,321,347,622 1,125,480,022 5,657,538,457 2,206,074,540 34,686,896,361 9,669,658,838 6,897,129,124 10,423,639,781 16,985,084,540 3,204,295,375 2,825,945,704 5,921,284,548 3,354,801,238 1,728,140,790 15,805,539,106 6,689,594,919 2,916,582,479 1,079,147,762 50,935,127,665 2,972,743,282 Malaysia 9,379,527,054 2,878,577,329 Philipines 3,876,824,785 256,218,656 4,944,996,664 1,030,549,509 1,978,565,984 Singapore 19,597,412,806 13,749,138,000 10,341,553,387 7,146,633,056 23,319,124,073 2,788,727,050 8,094,101,892 2,214,158,299 9,034,735,516 1,917,550,098 4,849,754,264 1,560,069,370 4,481,546,998 7,329,719,881 42,634,044,817 38,242,834,585 10,023,973,532 4,806,325,733 13,235,385,590 7,579,453,206 7,078,303,835 4,152,714,713 1,508,163,896 7,111,560,714 2,518,237,103 10,607,921,853 7,129,653,148 11,271,061,237 19,543,686,007 3,945,786,518 2,883,013,019 6,231,595,486 3,577,984,856 1,975,461,187 16,885,212,151 6,525,007,886 2,337,584,315 1,026,955,358 10,886,290,873 4,853,162,081 z z k jm ht gm 8,893,099,540 13,113,367,821 at Indonesia nh China oi 5,394,406,810 Thailand 20,794,877,191 Japan 75,074,751,799 6,403,815,970 Korea 59,147,526,592 3,276,370,350 15,441,608,266 Malaysia 13,187,295,126 3,721,941,708 12,716,519,557 5,612,508,368 4,382,164,627 310,499,049 4,635,176,067 1,082,849,586 Lu 21,072,294,199 14,984,914,409 8,894,272,978 8,414,805,187 25,214,982,050 9,389,015,139 3,040,102,780 10,275,573,304 2,102,263,135 5,569,529,899 9,898,450,937 51,506,764,876 50,009,086,341 11,421,840,177 25,088,192,209 8,615,848,403 5,244,421,592 42,146,557,914 11,598,425,718 4,058,995,935 17,206,458,296 14,491,790,239 9,556,147,617 9,273,382,012 2,944,438,521 12,515,321,633 6,363,328,635 22,476,697,441 4,469,736,681 1,600,696,801 ac th 8,496,748,559 4,029,783,825 5,719,804,855 5,702,467,833 y te 82,809,382,445 64,367,736,711 Korea 8,256,489,904 1,695,630,791 re 10,902,719,936 Japan n Indonesia 3,778,469,817 va China 7,916,375,238 1,694,357,108 an Thailand om Singapore 37,980,274,001 l.c Philipines 2008 Philipines 64,395,325,386 Korea 2007 Malaysia vb Japan Korea fu Indonesia Japan m ll China Indonesia n 2006 China va From country/To country n Year Appendix : East Asia regional intermediate goods exports 7,289,497,072 3,254,880,973 si eg cd 66 jg hg ad ju y th yi pl 4,191,624,147 16,214,162,942 6,642,954,894 4,195,951,199 362,221,100 4,896,507,822 1,564,001,294 1,225,136,654 Singapore 21,476,187,476 16,922,268,649 10,570,554,295 9,716,597,724 24,215,568,984 4,367,526,266 Thailand 9,086,515,038 11,042,570,092 2,632,224,844 6,443,710,014 1,658,218,939 5,060,403,691 35,354,043,788 31,738,082,137 9,153,284,600 4,451,280,166 11,240,776,374 7,307,791,019 16,327,207,371 7,629,434,734 5,470,779,262 1,845,294,380 7,164,614,397 2,648,228,773 35,335,499,379 8,785,257,662 5,744,491,621 9,203,764,979 16,997,686,261 2,906,878,692 2,943,275,372 5,906,210,977 3,264,634,141 1,464,457,108 14,182,464,103 6,143,855,287 2,082,657,524 874,613,591 n 11,482,932,003 Philipines n va 3,939,750,625 fu China 15,265,456,489 6,760,062,789 1,737,129,328 1,094,285,368 8,665,133,686 75,989,331,601 6,681,689,655 Korea 59,402,824,627 3,513,479,153 Malaysia 16,487,842,262 3,519,390,445 11,910,413,139 5,083,498,574 Philipines 2,003,268,032 266,450,714 3,886,779,500 vb 1,170,240,313 735,925,281 18,226,991,203 12,756,677,009 7,887,629,902 10,343,999,894 18,502,705,068 2,868,375,194 9,401,207,846 3,015,746,021 8,092,443,243 1,893,945,697 4,735,383,352 1,523,017,989 4,023,278,278 10,260,055,978 47,459,370,196 41,576,211,453 11,409,156,622 6,079,057,772 13,040,523,442 10,859,690,912 23,166,553,173 11,670,446,382 7,373,771,464 2,404,808,416 9,739,124,958 3,434,531,374 44,653,083,974 12,171,294,446 7,466,022,099 12,234,734,999 26,597,863,683 4,231,918,943 7,223,141,445 5,022,789,857 2,356,832,794 17,367,192,254 7,141,659,565 1,251,998,063 1,199,777,743 12,695,336,489 z z gm China 14,820,712,142 Japan 97,608,621,215 11,061,007,212 Korea 78,713,535,067 4,378,885,993 16,938,169,149 20,658,559,608 3,808,347,166 15,444,634,739 6,219,043,252 2,699,292,971 302,223,314 4,489,670,158 1,466,440,722 535,177,607 25,608,324,401 15,444,897,362 10,399,438,124 11,093,023,770 24,022,334,167 13,599,090,433 4,340,582,742 10,880,095,091 2,662,931,560 6,548,333,095 an va 3,985,843,467 8,971,963,245 n 2,143,475,786 y te re Thailand 3,765,891,106 Lu Singapore om Philipines l.c Indonesia Malaysia 6,752,115,429 k jm ht Thailand at Singapore nh Japan oi m ll 7,785,326,137 1,988,651,818 10,620,103,752 Indonesia 2010 ua al 2009 Malaysia 4,624,454,973 Source: UNCtadstat 2013 ac th si eg cd 67 jg hg