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INTRODUCTION Rationale For some recent decades Vietnam has obtained important achievements in economic growth Particularly, Vietnam’s economic growth rate belongs to the world’s fast growing group Especially, according to some experts, the global economic recession did not put a great influence on Vietnam’s economic growth From 1986, the year to start economic transformation and country’s reform, the annual growth of GDP in the period of 1986-2015 was 6.54%, of which the growth rate in the period 1991-1995 was 8.2%, 1996-2000 was 7%, 2001-2005 was 7.5%, 2006-2010 was 7.01% , and 2011-2015 was 5.91% That growth rate was one of crucial elements as well as essential requirements to significantly decrease the number of poor households and improve living standard of people in nationwide The average GDP per head based on exchange rate was only 700 USD in 2005 , but increased to more than 2100 USD in 2015 (so, during 10 years, this indicator rose by more than 201%, which was equal to more than 1,400 USD, presenting the average annual increase of more than 140 USD) Vietnam moved from an underdeveloped country with low income to a middle income country Nevertheless, from the viewpoint of different administrators, Vietnam’s economic growth has not been in parallel with its economic potentials More importantly, the growth quality has been quite low Especially, Vietnam’s economic growth model still holds various drawbacks Particularly, there are problems in effective usage of resources like physical property, labour as well as natural ones The economic competitiveness is still low If there is no more careful control, Vietnam may fall into the “trap” of middle income like some other countries In fact, Vietnam’s growth has largely depended on the available natural advantages, whilst the contribution of science and technology has been modest Also, the competitiveness of the country as well as enterprises and products has been limited Therefore, administrators and economists realize that in the core of development lies not only economic growth, but also growth quality Acknowledging the above challenges, in recent years, Vietnam Communist Party and the government have implemented numerous policies aiming at improving growth quality However, what does quality growth mean? And what is the “quality” of growth? These are two questions concerning scientists in developed countries in the world Especially, they are mentioned and discussed in reports on humans development by UNDP In Vietnam, the phrase “economic growth quality” was used by certain researchers right at the beginning of XXI century In fact, those working on economic growth quality in Vietnam have just explored aspects relevant to economic growth on individual basis, such as investment effectiveness, labour productivity, management efficiency and competitiveness enhancement, etc Recently, there have been studies proposing the development of a system of statistical indicators in order to evaluate and analysize the quality of economic growth in Vietnam However, there has not been any official system of statistical indicators for economic growth quality evaluation released and applied in reality When a phenomenon is reflected by different statistical indicators, its analysis and evaluation are based on the results (data) of each individual indicator This way of evaluation is really essential However, in many cases, if basing only on a specific indicator, it will be hard to give evidence on overall assessment of that phenomenon; especially in the case of inconsistent indicators Economic growth quality is reflected in different aspects, so, it is necessary to build up a system of statistical indicators to reveal the reality and it is equally important to study on the establishment of a composite index in order to provide an overall assessment of economic growth quality Therefore, currently, in Vietnam, it is essential to carry out research on theory, systematization and completion on calculation of composite index to reflect abstract phenomena to serve as the basis for setting up composite index Based on reality and the above mentioned research gap, obviously, it is vital to research economic growth quality and its measurement indicators in Vietnam This will be the scientific foundation for the analysis and evaluation on economic growth as well as its policy planning The thesis "Developing a composite index for measuring economic growth quality in Vietnam” expects to contribute to the solution of the above problem in both theoretical and pratical aspects Research objectives The general objectives of this thesis are to study the nature of economic growth, develop a system of statistical indicators for economic growth quality assessment, and propose a composite index for economic growth quality assessment to evaluate this issue in the past time Specifically: - Supplement and complete the indicator system on economic growth quality and information source of each particular indicator; propose the development of the composite index for economic growth assessment as well as common methods for economic growth analysis and assessment; items affecting economic growth quality in Vietnam based on statistical indicators; - Collect information for pilot calculation of proposed indicators to analyze the status of economic growth quality in Vietnam in the period of 20062015, using the methods and indicators reflecting economic growth quality; + Relevant information is gathered for pilot calculation of the composite index for Vietnam’s economic growth quality in the period of 2006-2015 based on the real data - Propose certain recommendations and suggestions in terms of statistical work to calculate and release the composite index of economic growth quality in Vietnam, which can serve as a basis for analyzing and making policies as well as setting goals for Vietnam’s economic growth in the future Research subject and scope This thesis studies the quality of economic growth In particular, it works on the nature, measurement, statistical indicator system and composite index to reflect Vietnam’s economic growth quality It is also a research work looking into Vietnam’s economic growth quality in the period of 2006 -2015, in which current indicators are selected to build up a statistical indicator system to reflect the quality of economic growth, and a composite index on Vietnam’s economic growth quality in the period of 2006 2015 is computed on a pilot scheme Research methods 4.2 Data analysis methods - Qualitative methods + The results of in-depth interview with experts on relevant fields help to understand the nature and perspectives of economic growth quality assessment and propose an indicator system for Vietnam’s economic growth quality + The research on each aspect of economic growth quality is the foundation for synthesizing and proposing statistical system to study and assess Vietnam’s economic growth quality; - Quantitative methods + The indicators in the statistical system on Vietnam’s economic growth quality from 2006 to 2015 are analyzed based on descriptive statistics; + The composite index on Vietnam’s economic growth quality in the same period is calculated and analyzed on pilot basis Thesis’s contributions 4.1 Data collection tools - Primary data collection: surveys: + In-depth interview: this helps to identify, supplement and propose statistical indicator system to assess the quality of economic growth This is also the basis for designing questionnaire for information collection as stated in anket method; + Questionnaire (anket method): this aims at determining the role of each indicator in assessing the quality of economic growth in Vietnam to serve for the proposal of statistical system on economic growth quality in Vietnam At the same time, this is the foundation for proposing the weights of indicators in calculating the composite index of Vietnam’s economic growth - Secondary data collection: + Available information and data is collected (thesis, scientific reseaches, stastistics from authorities) to analyze the status and evaluate the influence of - Proposing a feasible statistical indicator system on Vietnam’s economic growth quality with details of each indicator’s name, content, formula (if there is), unit and data source This would help to supplement and improve previous studies’ limitations, which were proposed but have neither been calculated nor applied into reality - Developing a method to calculate the composite index of Vietnam’s economic growth quality assessment; presenting in details the method for calculating each component indicator as well as the composite index, making a new and effective contribution to studies on Vietnam’s economic growth quality over time - Analysing and assessing the quality of economic growth in Vietnam in the period 2006 - 2015 The thesis uses (available) real data in the period of 2006 - 2015 in Vietnam to calculate component indicators as well as composite index following the proposed approach in order to assess Vietnam’s economic growth quality Thesis structure In addition to compulsory sections, including table of contents, list of abbreviation, list of figures, list of tables, acknowledgement, declaration, introduction, conclusion, list of published studies, references and appendixes; the thesis is organized in the following structure: CHAPTER DEFINITIONS AND PERSPECTIVES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH This chapter presents different definitions about economic growth as well as fundamental theories on this issue In addition to the definitions of economic growth, there is a discussion about factors affecting it Chapter 1: Definitions and perspectives on economic growth Definitions of economic growth and development Chapter 2: Statistical method for economic growth quality study Economic growth Chapter 3: Analysis and pilot calculation of composite index of Vietnam’s economic growth quality in the period of 2006-2015 Economic growth and economic development are considered as priorities in all countries’ objectives They are basic measurement for the advancement of each nation in its development phase Economic development According to Wikipedia, “Economic development is the process of improving and enhancing all aspects of the economy It covers economic growth Also, it is a complete status of economic structure, institutions as well as living quality” Sustainable development “Sustainable development is the continuous reproducing process of socioeconomy, based on a modern manufacturing method which not only meets the requirement of modern socio-economic growth and development, but also preserves and improves environmental conditions in order to maintain the balanced and harmonized relationship between humans and natural world, protect the environment, keep stable socio-economy and retain the foundation for long-term development Certain theories on economic growth According to Trần Thọ Đạt (2005), theories on economic growth were expressions of basic perspectives on economic growth through inputs and their relationship Lê Cao Đoàn (2011) linked growth model with decisive growth factors and discussed the relationship between growth and economic development In the world, theories on economic growth appeared and developed throughout the XX century, serving as the basis for policy makers in every nation Some common theories of growth should be introduced here Economic growth quality Economic growth based on rapidly increasing GDP is the key to the development However, dramatic growth is not enough It should ensure humanitarian quality and aim at humans’ living quality as well as meet their demands In other words, that growth should serve the idea of human development At the same time, economic growth must be closely linked with protecting and improving natural ecosystem in order to preserve natural resources for the future generations In the mid 90 of XX century, in UNDP’s reports on human development, it was stated that there were types of growth to be avoided, including jobless growth; ruthless growth; voiceless growth; rootless growth and futureless growth Perspectives on economic growth quality There has not been any official denition of economic growth quality Although growth quality has been mentioned by many people, it has not been described in details In a broad sense, growth quality is approaching the content of sustainable development, which focuses on aspects of economy, society and environment In a narrow sense, the definition of economic growth quality only limits in a specific aspect, such as investment quality, education quality, public service quality, urban management quality, etc Based on the analysis into the above mentioned perspectives and contents, the following inference should be given as the foundation for economic growth quality measurement and study: The quality of economic growth reflects stable increase in manufacturing outputs, based on effectively exploiting and utilizing different resources The growth should be attached with improving living standards, social equality and ecosystem protection Typical features of economic growth quality An economy with high growth quality is recognized with the following features: - growth rate remains high in a long term; - Effective growth is seen in labour productivity, high efficiency of capital usage, great contribution of total factor productivity (TFP) and highly competitive economy; - Economic structure follows a transitional trend of effectiveness improvement, in relevance with the reality of the economy in each period; Studies on statistical indicator system reflecting Vietnam’s economic growth quality Research into proposals for statistical indicator system reflecting economic growth quality reveals that there are two different trends of statistical indicator system: - The first trend: some studies only focused on a particular aspect of economic growth quality which is assessed based on several indicators - The second trend: some studies proposed statistical indicator system reflecting economic growth quality in all aspects with data of too many indicators Some of these are not in great details of contents or calculation method Especially, there have not been any authorities being responsible for calculating these indicators to give official data Elements of economic growth quality Investment structure Assets play such an important role in the process of economic growth of each country These include assets and accumulated physical assets, human resource (especially shown through training level) and natural resources Therefore, investment into the development of these assets with appropriate level and structure is really meaningful in economic growth Growth model The process of investing and developing assets is a decisive factor of creating the growth model of each country and an influencial factor of growth quality and quantity The result of asset development process might produce different growth models, which put an impact on economic growth quality Income and opportunity distribution “The aspect of growth and income distribution has always been a controversial issue This comes from the inverted U hypothesis by Simon Kuznets (1955) about inequality in distributing income which is linked with growth process According to Kurznets, inequality might result from growth process However, once the society has developed to a specific level, equality would reduce Then, the income and welfare would be more equally distributed - Economic growth goes parallelly with harmonized social life development; The effect of State administration -“Economic growth links with ecosystem preservation;” Long-term economic growth cannot ben maintained with only three components (human capital, narutal capital and physical capital) Economic growth quality also depends on the capacity of the government’s administration, which is demonstated in the establishment of institutions as well as the implementation of the government’s management role Concerning this aspect, the effect of administration reflects the role and contribution of the government to the growth process.”“ CHAPTER 2: STATISTICAL METHOD FOR RESEARCH IN ECONOMIC GROWTH QUALITY This chapter presents statistical methods in researching economic growth quality It should cover the formation of a statistical indicator system, introduction to the calculation of composite index for certain areas, proposal for calculating method of composite index for Vietnam’s growth quality and introduction to suggested statistical methods used in calculating and analyzing Vietnam’s economic growth quality 2.1 Statistical indicator system for research in economic growth quality 2.1.1 General issues of statistical indicator system Statistical indicator system is a collection of different indicators which aim at reflecting features, important characteristics and main relations of the researched issue This system allows quantifying the most important aspects, structure and basic relationships of the researched issue so that it can be possible to acknowledge specific nature and rules of the issue 2.1.2 Requirements for the statistical indicator system - The system should reflect key aspects of economic growth process, growth quality, the efficiency as well as the influence of the growth process on different matters of social life; - It should be feasible, which means that its can conveniently and directly measure; its design can make optimal usage of available data and sources in the statistical information system; - It should be systematic and comparable to reflect the changes and trends of economic development; - It should provide useful information, seving the process of making policy in order to improve growth quality and provide basic information for users to evaluate the nature of the issue 2.1.3 Principles for developing a statistical indicator system The selection of indicators reflecting economic growth quality should ensure the compliance with the principles of goal-orientation; consistency; feasibility; flexibility and efficiency 10 2.1.4 Vietnam’s statistical indicator system for economic growth quality Indicator Literacy rate of 15-and-above population 2.1.4.1 Basis for the formation of the indicator system Indicator Average expectancy Followings are the bases for proposing the statistical indicator system: - Study on the statistical indicator system for economic growth quality given by Montfort Mlachila - René Tapsoba and Sampawende J A Tapsoba (2014) in his draft for calculating composite index of economic growth quality in developing countries - Consideration and reference to the statistical indicator system in different researches by local scholars Indicator 10 Gini Coefficiency Indicator 11 Poverty Rate Indicator 12 Income inequality coefficiency c Indicators reflecting environmental aspect: Indicator 13 Forest Coverage Rate Indicator 14 Total area of deforestation - Survey for experts’ opinions: Process of carrying out survey for experts’ opinions Indicator 15 Rate of hazardous waste treated 2.1.4.2 Proposal for statistical indicator system reflecting economic growth quality in Vietnam 2.2 Method of developing the composite index Regarding evidences mentioned in Error! Reference source not found., the author proposes that indicators for Vietnam’s economic growth quality should be selected with approval by at least 50% of experts The author as well as some experts observed that in the proposed system, there are very few indicators in the group of environment, while, in fact, a number of meaningful indicators appear in this research work However, currently, there has not been any data of these indicators for further research, or the available data is not highly reliable, according to some experts Especially, the data were not collected, published and calculated It neither ensured the continuity in the period of 2006 - 2015 Thereofore, in order to ensure the feasibility of the statistical indicator system, the following 16 indicators should be covered: a Indicators reflecting economic aspect: Indicator 16 Rate of solid waste treated It is neccessary to have a system of indicators which is able to reflect the nature of a phenomenon thoroughly and inclusively However, in reality, some indicators possess different trends of volatility and this results in the requirement to research on a composite index which can accurately reflect the general trend of a phenomenon In order to create a firm basis which can produce the appropriate method of calculating the composite index relating to the quality of economic growth, some common composite indexes are introduced as follows: - Human Development Index - Growth Competitiveness Index - Prosperity Index - Vietnam Provincial Competitiveness Index Indicator Structure of GDP - Viet Nam Provincial Governance and Public Administration Performance Index Indicator Efficiency of investment capital 2.2.1 The process of developing the composite index Indicator Productivity of social labour The process of calculating the composite index can be divided into these following steps Indicator Rate of GDP increase (Decrease) Indicator The ratio of TFP contribution to the increase in GDP Indicator The ratio of export to GDP c Indicators reflecting social aspect: Indicator The growth rate of GDP per capita 11 Step 1: Qualitative analysis of component indicators’ features In reality, complicated phenomena are not directly presented through statistical indicators but usually are demonstrated indirectly through many abstract aspects and it is difficult to measure them To be able to assess and 12 quantify phenomena, it is essential to take consituent indicators into consideration Step 4: “Calculation of component indicators’ weights in each group of indicators Step 2: Selection of main component indicators reflecting the research subject: It is possible to use numerous component indicators to describe the phenomenon There are different methods to summarize data such as correlation analysis, analysis of main components, or a collection of opinions from experts can be collected to assess the importance of each variable in the indicator system and propose specific indicators involving in the calculation of general indicator It is essential to detailedly and clearly analyze the significance of each component indicators as they contain different degrees of information about the research phenomenon, some reflect more insights than others This means that the importance of each indicators on the phenomenon is varied or their significance in each group of indicators is different Step 3: Standardization of the selected component indicators Step 5: Calculation of composite index (general index) The composite index is calculated according to the arithmetic mean or geometric mean of component indicators Many methods are used to standardize data According to Jiawei Han (2011), there are different methods such as min-max standardization, z-score standardization An example to provide a better understanding of data standardization methods can be described as follows X is a quantity criteria with n observation values, x1, x2, .xn 2.2.2 Proposal of the development of the composite index relating to the quality of Vietnam’s economic growth - Min-max standardization deploys the linear map on original data Hypothetically, xmin and xmax are the minimum and maximum value of a X criteria respectively The formula of min-max standardization of the value from xi to xi’within the range [new min, new max] is calculated as follows On the basis of previous researches on composite indexs and experts’ opinions about the significance of each indicator in the system reflecting the quality of economic growth, the author selects indicators according to the degree of their importance respectively (from 90% and above) Concurrently, considering the practical context of date, the researcher proposes three different aspects including economic, social, environmental ones for the calculation of composite index reflecting the quality of Vietnam’s economic growth xi' = xi − xmin × ( xmax moi − xmin moi ) + xmin moi xmax − xmin The min-max standardization maintains the relationship among the values of original data However, a “over-the-limit” may occur if an future input requiring the standardization does not exist in the original data range of the X criteria (smaller than the original minimum value or higher than the original maximum value) If that happens, those values existing outside the limit range will acquire the same value - Z-score standardization (or 0-value average standardization) - Decimal standardization: standardizong by moving decimal points of the X criteria’s values In some cases, when research indicators have a large range, people often apply natural logarithm into values and then use the min-max standardization Regarding circumstances which use min-max standardization, the application is generally simple However, it is neccessary to clearly identify the upper (max) and lower (min) of each indicator 13 2.2.2.1 Selection of índicators in the calculation of composite index relating to the quality of Vietnam’s economic growth - Indicators reflecting the economic aspect: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (comparative prices); Incremental Capital-Output Ratio (ICOR); social labour productivity (real prices); contribution rate of TFP to the GDP growth; Export rate/GDP - Indicators reflecting the social aspect: the rate of GDP per capita, human poverty index and Gini coefficiency; literacy rate of 15-and-above populatiion, average expectancy of popluation - Indicators refelecting the environmental aspect: Forest coverage index and total area of deforestation 2.2.2.2 Component standardization The author proposes the min-max standardization on the scale from to 10 The standardization is applied as below: 14 X i' = X i − X ×9 +1 X max − X In which: I1 : The economic indicator is calculated according to the following formula: As for or inverse indicators such as the total area of deforestation, because of relatively high numeric value, the researcher applies logarithm and then use the following formula: X i" = ln X max − ln X i × +1 ln X max − ln X For indicators such as ICOR, Gini coefficienct, the author uses the inverse value and aplies the standardization formula For the poverty indicator, the researcher has it subtracted from 100 and applies the above formula The identification of min-max values depends of the real value of the phenomenon throughout the period I2 : The social indicator is calculated according to the following formula: I3 : The environmental indicator is calculated according to the following formula: 2.3 Some statistical methods used in the analysis and calculation of the quality of economic growth 2.3.1 Descriptive statistics 2.3.2 Correlation and regression statistics 2.3.3 Time series analysis 2.3.4 Principal component analysis 2.2.2.3 Weight determination - In terms of weights in the calculation of component indicators, equal weights are not included - In terms of weights in the calculation of composite index, the author proposes two alternatives in identifying weights for component indicators in the general calcultion of composite index + Alternative 1: Using equal weights; + Alternative 2: Determining weights by identifying the average point based on experts’ opinions 2.2.2.4 Composite index determination By comparing the usage of arithmetic mean and geometric mean in determining the component and composite indexs, the author proposes the application of geometric mean in identifying the component and composite indexs That means, the composite index of the quality of economic growth is calculated according the following formula: In alternative using equal weights” QGI = I I I = I 11 / I 21 / I 31 / In alternative using weights based on experts’ opinions: QGI = I 1α I 2β I 3γ 15 16 CHAPTER 3: ANALYSIS AND PILOT CALCULATION OF THE COMPOSITE INDEX ABOUT THE QUALITY OF VIETNAM’S ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE PERIOD 2006 - 2015 This chapter focuses on the analysis quality of Vietnam’s economic growth in the period of 10 years, from 2006 to 2015 based on som indicators in the statistical indicators system proposed in the second chapter The author collected indicators, conducted pilot calculation of the composite index and provided some viewpoints on the quality of Vietnam’s economic growth in the period of 2006 – 2015 3.1 Features of the data source The data source used to calculate the composite index of the quality of Vietnam’s economic growth was provided and published officially by General Statistics Office of Vietnam - Since data provided by General Statistics Office, they are credible and easy to verify The approach of this data source was quite simple as it was publicly included in the report by General Statistics Office - Nevertheless, in this current context, it is quite challenging to possess a complete data source of many different indicators throughout a long period of time due to some following causes: + Firstly, indicators are heterogeneous when they are researched in a long period of time + Secondly, an indicator can have numerous data sources + Thirdly, some indicators are inconsecutive due to the inconsecutive cycle of collecting information for indicators in reality + Fourthly, some indicators are only calculated in a specific stage These above reasons and others relating to the data trustworthiness would affect the analysis, opinions and credibility of composite indexs 3.2 Analysis of the quality of Vietnam’s economic growth from 2006 to 2015 through somem key indicators This section concentrates on analyzing the quality of economic growth in termss of three aspects including economy, society and environment in the period of 2006 to 2015 Due to the heterogeneous nature of practical context relating to data such as some indicators only exist in specific years, some indicators are published once in two years, some indicators only have average data in specific 17 periods, the analysis of indicators are not completely homogeneous in terms of time 3.3 Pilot calculation of the composite index of the quality of Vietnam’s economic growth There are 12 indicators selected to calculate the composite index of the quality of Vietnam’s economic growth which include some averagely divided in the entire period, some produced once in two years, some only calculated in specific years during the whoel period It can be seen that data are missing for some specific years (for example, human poverty index or the Gini coefficient) To deal with this issue, the author extrapolates data from previous and following years In terms of indicators having average data throughout the whole period (ICOR coefficient and the contribution rate of TFP to the growth), the author assigns the average value of the entire period to each year For forest cover indicatore, due to the missing data of two first years, the author uses the forecast method relating to the average level of the absolute change (increase or decrease) to estimate the data for those two years As these data are only for pilot calculation, calculation in reality will require more detailed research and analysis to estimate the missing data 3.3.1 Pilot calculation of the composite index of the quality of Vietnam’s economic growth in the period of 2005 -2015 3.3.1.1 Data standardization With the available data, the min-max standardization will be applied to all the cases on the scale from to 10 as below: X i' = X i − X ×9 +1 X max − X However, as mentioned above, regarding inverse indicators such as ICOR, inequality coefficiency (as in product relationship), the author will have divided by other calculated research indicators to calculate these indicators As for poverty indicator which is formed by two contradictory components, the author will have it subtracted from 100 and then apply the above formula As for the deforestation indicator which possesses a contrast relationship (the increased value implies a more negative trend of the phenomenon) and a large range, the researcher will apply natural logarithm into its value to reduce differences between cases 18 X i' = ln X max − ln X i × +1 ln X max − ln X In the above formula, min-max limits are determined by having the average v value plus or subtract with three times of standard deviation ( x ± × S ) ensure the value as the minimum value compared with the research value and the max value as the maximum value compared with the research value Nevertheless, in some cases where the and max values are those which are impossible in reality, for example, social labour productivity cannot receive the negative value In that case, the and max value that are possible in reality will be used Based on min-max values and the aboved formula, the author proceeds to standardize each indicator respectively Using the standardized value of each indicator, the calculation of component indicators is proceeded (in terms of different aspects such as economy, society and environment) The following graph describes the trends of volatility of each component indicator 8.5 Social index After acquiring component indicators, the calculation of composite index is conducted As being mentioned aboved, the author uses the method of weighted average Thereore, the most critical part of the calculation is to identify the weight (role) of the group of factors in the evaluation of the economic growth’s quality The researcher carries out the pilot calculation based on alternatives - Alternative 2: Using alternative based on experts’ opinions This method is more scientific and has a firm basis despite difficulties in identifying weights Through the general result of research objects’ opinions, the author uses weights for each following indicator: economic indicator (α=0,5), social indicator(β=0,3) and environmental indicator (γ=0,2) to calculate the composite index according to the weighted average The indicator for the quality of economic growth in the period of 2006 – 2015 by using two alternatives is presented as below: Environment index 7.5 Đơn vị tính: điểm 3.3.1.3 Calculation of the composite index of the quality of econmic growth - Alternative 1: Using equal weights; 3.3.1.2 Calculation of component indicators Economic index or it can be said that the economic growth was focused on without considering factors affecting the environment However, this trend did not exist in 2014 and 2015 as both of the economic and environmental indicator were better off 7.50000 Alternative 6.5 7.117579 Alternative 7.0000 5.5 6.640451 7.128531 6.286287 6.50000 6.633791 6.444746 6.0000 4.5 5.709569 5.498040 5.773445 5.50000 3.5 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 5.260870 5.0000 4.665055 4.592740 Component indicators in the calculation of composite index of the quality of economic growth 4.445470 4.421722 4.50000 4.0000 It can be seen from the graph that throughout the period of 2006 – 2015, each aspect (economy, society and environment) possessed different trends of volatility and even in some years, their trend of volatility contradicts each other The social indicator remained stable throughout the period while the economic and environmental ones seemed to contradict each other This means that when the economic indicator increased, the environmental indicator would decrease 19 4.199541 4.6375624.623804 4.5452354.521380 4.150310 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Composite factor of the quality of Vietnam’s economic growth in the period of 2006 - 2015 It can be seen from the pilot calculation of two alternatives, the overall quality of Vietnam’s economic growth increased throughout the period 2009, 2011 and 2013 witnessed the dramatic differences or even contradiction 20 between the economic indicator and the environmental one Considering the small number of index in environmental indicators as well as their relatively low credibility, the author deduces that the result from the second alternative is more suitable The quality of economic growth considerably improved with constant relatively high value throughout the period, especially from 2011 to 2015 The quality of economic growth remained quite low during 2008-2010 due to the negative impact of global economic depression On the basis of pilot calculation of composite index of the quality of Vietnam’s economic growth from 2006 to 2015, some conclusions can be made as follows: - In terms of the indicator system relating to the quality of economic growth, some indicators has yet to ensure the homogeneity in the analysis and calculation and some still have inconsecutive data This affects the accuracy of information as well as the calculation’s results - In terms of proposed formulas, the generalization as well as the proposal of formulas for the calculation of indicators evaluating the quality of economic growth are collected from indicators of various aspects Additionally, in the event that the statistical indicators system modify, it is possible to use the proposed formulas - The significance of each indicator in the group of economic, social and environment indicators carries specific historical features and depends on the development target of the country as well as modifications on social awareness CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS The thesis demonstrates an overview of the quality of growth including different opinions on the concept and contents of the quality of economic growth In terms of research on the quality of economic growth, people often focus on the growth’s causes, the harmonious and effective combination of resources and concurrently the internal structure (economic structure), outputs for products and the distribution of production results This means people assess the entire process of economic growth Other factors such as society, environment are also assessed but they are considered as results of the economic growth process (while sustainable development concurrently concentrates on three aspects which are the economy, the society and especially environment) The thesis also mentions different factors affecting the quality of economic growth and assesses some primary factors which are investment structures creating various types of assets; the economic growth model; distribution of income and opportunities; the efficiency of State’s management By collecting and assessing numerous opinions from many experts as well as the current situation of statistical information, the author has proposed the selection of statistical indicators to evaluate the quality of economic growth However, the evaluation of seperate aspects and indicators may lead to heterogeneous or even contradictory conclusions about the quality of economic growth Hence, due to the requirement of creating a suitable composite index evaluating the process of economic growth in Vietnam, the research was conducted to solve some main issues listed as below: - An overview of the concept, the significance, roles, and contents of the economic growth This serves as the theoretical framework for the author to study and select statistical indicators in the system of statistiscal indicators about the quality of economic growth - On the basis of detailed analysis into previous researches on the quality of economic growth, the author proposes 16 indicators divided into three groups (economy, society, and environment) to evaluate to the quality of Vietnam’s economic growth Despite the clear awareness of difficulties in constructing an inclusive system of indicators and some limitations in the group of environemental indicators, the author’s proposal on the system of indicators can 21 22 be considered as specific and practical in the current context compared to previous researches - A summary of the process of calculating indicators in Vietnam as well as the world which serves as the basis for the proposal of the procedure of calculating the composite index about the quality of Vietnam’s economic growth - A proposal on the process of developing and calculating the composite index about the quality of Vietnam’s economic growth by selecting indicators in the system of statistical indicators, standardizing data and calculating component and composite indexs relating to the quality of Vietnam’s economic growth This is the most important section in the thesis The result of this process would demonstrate the general picture of Vietnam’s economic growth’s quality This is regared as the author’s new contribution to the measurement and evaluation of the quality of economic growth which previous researches did not mention - A collection of indicators in the period of 2006 – 2015 to carry out the pilot calculation of the composite index about the quality of Vietnam’s economic growth This pilot calculation serves as a firm evidence for the feasibility of the thesis Through collected data and the proposed composite index, the author conducted the analysis relating to the current situation of the quality of Vietnam’s economic growth from 2006 to 2015 aspects (economy, society, environment) This research’s proposal of a system of indicators evaluating the quality of economic growth was produced by referencing experts’ opinions in a small scale Therefore, it is neccessary to continue collecting and referencing opinions from more experts and organize conferences to absorb assessments and viewpoints from authorized departments so that the most meaningful indicators can be selected to reflect the nature of the phenomenon being studied - Deployment offurther researches on the process of calculating the composite index evaluating the quality of economic growth provided that they can be appropriate in the practical context and possess suitable modifications during their application - Promulgation of official statistical reports about the quality of Vietnam’s economic growth - Research and proposals of the complement of composite indexs relating to the quality of Vietnam’s economic growth into the national statistical indicators system and annual reports - Promotion the feasibility of calculation relatinng to composite indexs about the quality of Vietnam’s economic growth It is also essential to assign different units to collect, calculate composite indexs and analyze systematically In the current context, General Statistics Office would be the authorized division to conduct this task Nevertheless, the research remains to have some limitations Due to limited resources, the sample size as well as the analysis of features of the quality of economic growth served as the basis for the proposal of statistical indicators system were quite small-scaled Also, the process of appraoching research objects was quite complicated which leads to the relatively low representation In addition, the thesis has yet to establish a complete model of factors affecting the quality of Vietnam’s economic growth Recommendations and Solutions The calculation of composite index reflecting the quality of economic growth mentioned in previous chapters partly affirms its feasibility However, it is required to carry out some following recommendations to transform this composite index into an important basis in planning and evaluating the quality of Vietnam’s economic growth - An establishment of a system which comprises indicators macroeconomically assessing the quality of economic growth in terms of many 23 24