Climate change is already happening. Regardless of international progress to reduce emissions of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change, the climate system will continue to adjust for the next few decades to past and present emissions. This wil
FINAL EXAMINATION PAPER, 2012 BY NGUYEN THANH TAN,Thai Nguyen University of Agriculture and ForestryNovember 2012IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE IN VIETNAMThe case of Mekong River Delta, VietnamByNGUYEN THANH TANStudent of Advanced Education Program,Thai Nguyen University of Agriculture and ForestryEmail address: thanhtanvt92@gmail.comThe course of Modern Agriculture Issues, Implications and ImpactsProfessor William Steiner, Dean of the College of Agriculture,Forestry and Natural Resource Management, University of Hawaii, HiloNovember 25, 20121 FINAL EXAMINATION PAPER, 2012 BY NGUYEN THANH TAN,TABLE OF CONTENTABSTRACT 3INTRODUCTION………………………………………………… . 4 • The realities of climate change in Viet nam, particular in Mekong River Delta………………………………… . 4 • Challenges and impacts to agricultural sector in Vietnam and Mekong River Delta River in particular . 4 • Interventions policy and solutions . 5 DISCUSSION AND SUGESSION 6 CONCLUTION AND URGENT ACTION NOW . 8REFERENCES 9 2 FINAL EXAMINATION PAPER, 2012 BY NGUYEN THANH TAN,ABSTRACT Climate change is already happening. Regardless of international progress to reduce emissions of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change, the climate system will continue to adjust for the next few decades to past and present emissions. This will bring unavoidable impacts to all countries in the world, especially to the North American, European and Southeast Asian countries (Heather Haydock, AEA Energy & Environment, 2007).Vietnam is in the south-eastern extremity of the Indochinese peninsula and occupies about 331,688 square kilometers. With a coastline of 3,260 kilometers, and more than one million square kilometers of sea surface, Vietnam is likely to be among the country hardest hit by climate change, mainly through rising sea levels and changes in rainfall and temperatures (Human development report 2007/2008). The changing climate is tend to increase intensity and number of natural disasters as storm surge, flash flood, whirlwind, desertification, inundation, etc., and impacts society and ecosystems in a broad variety of ways. Being an agriculture country, Vietnam can be extensively affected by climate changes on agriculture production and economic growth. This paper examines these main impacts of climate change on agriculture in Mekong River Delta, one of the most important two rice granaries of the country, alongside Red River Delta in the North, and one of the largest inland fisheries in the world (MRC, 2009). I first assess the impacts of climate change on Agricultural system in the River Delta area based on rice sectors, and forestry and fishery so far. I then present a yield function approach that models technology advances and policy interventions to improve rice productivity and mitigate the impact of climate change. There are synergies between climate change study and crop production analysis that can improve our understanding of long-term food security. This analysis integrates rice yield response to inputs, technical change, and policy interventions with impact assessment of climate change on agricultural sectors. It is estimated that annual rice production of Mekong Delta River may be reduced by 2.7 millions tons by 2050 under climate change (World Bank, 2010). Nevertheless, government investment in rural infrastructure and human capital can mitigate the negative impact of climate change and help farmers adapt. The result indicates that government investment in Mekong River Delta has the highest return in agricultural production and poverty reduction, far above education, road, and irrigation. In preparation for future climate change, it is important to invest in agricultural rural and development in order to supply farmers with more drought- and flood-tolerant crop varieties and highly efficient production practices that are more resilient in adverse soil and weather conditions. Keywords: Climate change, agriculture productivity, policy intervention, Mekong River Delta, Vietnam.3 FINAL EXAMINATION PAPER, 2012 BY NGUYEN THANH TAN,INTRODUCTIONThis chapter provides an overview of realities of climate change, and the challenges, impacts to agricultural sector in Vietnam in general and in Mekong River Delta River in particular. Finally, I will introduce and recommend some interventions policy and solutions to overcome and adapt to climate change. The realities of climate change Climate change is more than a threat; it’s a reality for millions of people in Vietnam. The impacts of climate change are already destroying livelihoods and increasing financial, political, social and environmental inequities. Hundreds of people in the coastal community of Da Loc were heavily damaged by typhoon Damarely in 2005. Already a million hectares of rice paddy fields have been contaminated by salt water along the country. The Vietnamese government has begun planning for a one meter rise in sea level by the end of the century. The consequences of doing nothing would see more than a third of the Mekong Delta flooded by then. A spokeswoman for the Tra Vinh Commune People’s Committee was direct: “I can tell you climate change is having a big impact on agricultural production and on the lives of the people because of the intensified drought, the saline water coming in, as well as the stormy weather. They’ve all had a very negative effect on agriculture and as a result on the income of the farmers”. The impacts of climate change Changes in climate can have serious implications for economic development, especially in the agricultural sector, due to its direct exposure to and dependence on weather and other natural conditions. Studies for the Southeast Asian region show that climate change could lower agricultural productivity by 2–15 percent in Vietnam (Zhai and Zhuang 2010). Mekong River Delta and the coastal areas in the north of the central region are most vulnerable to the impact of global warming in Vietnam due to rising sea levels. Each year, Mekong people can harvest up to 2.6 million tons of wild fish and other aquatic resources (MRC, 2009) as the world’s largest island fishery. The Delta provides 90 per cent of rice exports, and Vietnam is one of the world’s top suppliers of this staple. It meets more than half of the country’s fruit and seafood needs, and the majority of seafood exports. This food production adds up to about 20 per cent of the country’s GDP. It is really the largest agriculture and aquaculture production region of Vietnam. Then what a picture to Vietnamese agriculture if Mekong River Delta is affected strongly by climate change! The effects of a changing climate could trigger destabilizing economic and political forces, domestic impact altering regional geopolitics, international trade and more. Over last 30 years, average temperature increase of 0.5oC in Can Tho (the largest city in Mekong River Delta), and the average sea level rise of 3 mm per year in the water around the mouth of the Delta (ICEM, 4-5). The average 4 FINAL EXAMINATION PAPER, 2012 BY NGUYEN THANH TAN,elevation of Mekong River Delta is roughly five feet above sea level, which makes it particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels (Yun, 2009). It is estimated that about 20–30 percent of the Mekong River Delta will be affected by 2100, and some areas will be salinity (World Bank 2009). IPPC (2007) has warned that if the sea level rises 1 meter, the Mekong Delta may lose 15,000 – 20,000 km2 of land, and out 3.5 to 5.0 million of people will be affected. In fact, one- fourth of the Mekong Delta coastline is already undergoing erosion. More dams would likely increase this erosion as well as relative sea level rise, and might worsen water shortages and extend the area affected by salinity during the dry months. The changing climate could be especially damaging for rice cultivation due to substantial modifications in land and water resources. It is predicted that annual rice production of Mekong Delta River may be reduced by 2.7 millions tons by 2050 under climate change (World Bank, 2010). Furthermore, the appearances of extreme disasters such as typhoons, floods, and droughts, which could become more severe and more frequent as the climate changes, would also affect rice production substantially in the country, because it may lead to many negative effects on quantity and quality of water supply and food security. Moreover, the water in the common integrated agriculture-aquaculture system, which is an efficient farming system supplying both rice and fish/shrimp for farmers, is unbalanced between rice and fish under the impact of rising sea level. Because fish is raised mainly in water bodies around rice fields to consume agricultural by-products and wastes, the failure in each growing state will affect the others. The change in monthly rainfall distribution such as less rains in early wet seasons and more heavy rains in the end of the wet reduced rice production. Rice yields decline 10% with 1oC increase in minimum temperature (Peng et al., 2004). Almost all fish and shrimp species develop favorably in optimum water in the range of 20oC to 25oC. Aquaculture yields may decline precipitously at water temperature above 30oC especially as dry lands expands. Otherwise, the high humidity and temperature air are good conditions for insect species development. A higher of infectious diseases is also forecasted for the area (MRC, 2009). Increased insect species will threat agriculture yields and farmers income. Temperature increase plus the natural flow decrease may lead to dissolved oxygen concentration in water bodies. Water-borne diseases will be extended and attack rice-fish-shrimp farmers. Additionally, low flow, high temperature and less oxygen in water bodies will affect the fish reproduction and growth. Great variation in the flow of the Mekong River, from seasonal flooding and low water levels, both drives and constrains the productivity of the agro-and aqua-ecological systems. Coastal and estuarine mangrove forest wetlands and other submerged aquatic vegetation as habit and nutrient sources for fish species affected by sea level rise. All farmers and agricultural enterprises will be failure on their business due to the lack of essential nutrient sources, land ownership, financial sources and information assessment under the climate and regime change. It does not have significant impacts to agriculture sectors but also to local social problems 5 FINAL EXAMINATION PAPER, 2012 BY NGUYEN THANH TAN,influenced by a wide range of local, regional, national and international trade policies. Interventions policy and solutions Recognizing potential impacts of climate change, the government of Vietnam has created a legal framework on sustainable development and climate change including Viet Nam Agenda 21, the Law on Environmental Protection, disaster risk mitigation policies, and energy efficiency policies. The implementation of the framework will substantially improve the living conditions of local population in Mekong River Delta, protecting themselves and their production from natural resources and seasonal floods. The project will also initiate socio-economic development to maintain the Mekong River Delta one of the best rice production area in the world and diversify local livelihoods to integrate to the development trend of the country in particular and of the international region as a whole. With the main objectives are to strictly protect and manage rice land, many organizations and agencies acting on climate change sector such as Can Tho (11/20/2008), Institute of Climate Change Research – Can Tho University (DRAGON – Mekong – CTU in short), etc. was established; and many research programs were developed on rice cultivated land to map growing areas for rice are encouraging by government. They did make a “red line” border in reality for specialized paddy rice areas and revise some articles of the Land Law 2003 and issue a government degree on management of rice land. Since 2001, the governments have increased investment and supplementing budget for rural and infrastructure development of Mekong River Delta, encouraging the application of mechanization in food production, harvesting, processing and storage. Furthermore, it was enhanced public awareness, responsibility and participation, and develops human resources to respond to climate change. To balance the floor price for agricultural products which ensure food price subsidy for poor households and low income groups whenever food prices increased, the government continues applying reduction fee of free irrigation, increasing to buy food reserve and support food enterprises to build their facilities for storage and renewing rice export mechanism.DISCUSSION AND SUGGESTION Climate change has great impacts on the whole society. Therefore, it is the responsibility of government from central to local to implement programs of climate change, especially activities related to adaptation to climate change. The government guides all related activities including integrating climate change into policies, plans, and national fund development. For the Mekong Delta, the long term responsibility of government is to contribute to the mitigation of the area’s vulnerability by impacts of climate change through regulating governmental and non – governmental organizations, developing policies and enhancing coping and adapting ability to climate change to ensure the sustainability of the environment, the economic and social equality. It also is 6 FINAL EXAMINATION PAPER, 2012 BY NGUYEN THANH TAN,responsibility of the whole society to protect natural resources and the environment. However, we still have some limitations and weaknesses in the fight against climate change and maintain Mekong River Delta. For examples, the assessment of temperature and sea level variation is not really detailed for zones and not comprehensive. The impacts of land use change is not taken into consideration when assessing temperature change trends and the impacts of tide, water surge due to wind and subsidence are still not eliminated when assessing water level change. Because we still lack of basic survey data; the flow pattern change due to change of reservoirs built upstream. There are still not enough legal documents on climate change response. Some documents lack legal basis to regulate activities related to climate change. Additionally we lack of a specific mechanism for co-operation among departments, branches and local offices as well as a mechanism for participating and co-operating with the society and the communities in programs to respond to climate change. Therefore, this legal document system needs to be supplemented and completed as soon as possible to meet practical demand of society on sustainable development and climate change mitigation. Capacity of organizations doesn’t really meet the requirements to cope and adapt to climate change. So, it is necessary to improve the capacity, equipment and co-operation between organizations. Private sector has shown their responsibility on coping with climate change through many activities such as greenhouse gas emission surveillance, decreasing power consumption and developing clean energy. However, this contribution is still restricted and not specific. This may be due to administrative policies. To cope and mitigate the impacts of climate changes, it’s necessary to study in depth for each area, enhance forecasting capacity and improve the accuracy and detail of climate change scenarios. Suggestions of Sihymete for next steps (from December 2010 to May 2011): • Importing and processing meteorological data from 13 monitoring stations in Mekong Delta. The collected data include: temperature, rainfall, evaporation, sun hours, wind speed and direction. Data type is daily. Collecting period is from 1978 to 2009. • Importing and processing water level data from monitoring stations in Mekong Delta. Data collected is hourly data. Collecting period is from 1978 to 2009. • Importing and processing salinity data at monitoring stations in Mekong Delta. Assessing climate fluctuation in 5 sub – areas of Mekong Delta (Long Xuyen Rectangle, Ca Mau peninsula, Dong Thap Muoi, Tien – Hau river and the Eastern coastal zone) • Assessing salt intrusion trends in seasons; water level trends in monitoring stations. Making maps of water level trends in the period 7 FINAL EXAMINATION PAPER, 2012 BY NGUYEN THANH TAN,1978 – 2009. • Building climate change scenarios for 5 sub areas of the Mekong Delta to 2100. • Analyzing and assessing impacts on Mekong Delta in climate change scenarios. • Researching in detail impacts of climate change on inundation, salt intrusion, • Water resources and agricultural production to propose coping solutions. Sources: Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment: Department of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate ChangeCONCLUSION AND URGENT ACTION NOW The Mekong River Delta is critically important to Vietnam’s national agricultural production. However, under the impacts of climate change already affecting the Mekong Delta, prolonged inundation of fields and increased salinity threaten the viability of three-season rice farming in this densely populated, low-lying region, and could directly affect 1 million people by 2050. Therefore, it is responsibility of government from central to local to implement programs of climate change, especially activities related to adaptation to climate change; and also is responsibility of the whole society to protect natural resources and the environment. If we do nothing to reduce our carbon emissions, a third of Mekong River Delta lies barely more than 6.6 feet (2 meters) above sea level could be flooded every year with a sea level rise of 3.3 feet (1 meter). Because around 78 percent of the delta's land is used for rice production, such flooding today would cause approximately $17 billion in economic losses - a substantial percentage of Vietnam's gross domestic product. If, on the other hand, we make significant efforts to reduce emissions, sea level rise between now and the end of the century could be limited to 15 inches (38 centimeters) (Union of Concerned Scientists, 2011). In preparation for future climate change, it is important to invest in agricultural rural and development in order to supply farmers with more drought- and flood-tolerant crop varieties and highly efficient production practices that are more resilient in adverse soil and weather conditions. Research should be carried out on the construction of sea and river dykes, the construction of fresh water reservoirs for the dry season and how to recharge groundwater reservoirs. Planned infrastructural measures for adapting to climate change must address the whole of the Mekong River Delta, not Can Tho alone. Awareness and understanding of climate change for local people and government officials is essential. Support from the international community is needed to help Can Tho and the Mekong River Delta to find optimal and appropriate measures for adaptation (ICEM, 5). Collectively, numerous efforts such as these have already been undertaken by both national and local government officials in Vietnam as well as across the 8 FINAL EXAMINATION PAPER, 2012 BY NGUYEN THANH TAN,international community to support the Mekong River Delta in adapting to the growing impacts of climate change. At this point in time, however, whether these efforts can prevent either mass migrations of refugees from the Mekong River Delta or corresponding conflicts from occurring is indeterminate. REFERENCES⌂ Related Information and Sources:1. Wassmann, R., N.X. Hien, C.T. Hoanh, and T.P. Tuong. 2004. Sea level rise affecting the Vietnamese Mekong Delta: Water elevation in the flood season and implications for rice production. Climatic Change66:89-107.2. Sub-Institute of Hydrometeorology and environment of South Vietnam: Vietnam-Netherlands Mekong Delta, Master plan project, Ho Chi Minh City, 2010.3. The Vietnam Water Partnership, Report on Climate change activities in Vietnam. Ha Noi, December, 2010.4. Nguyen Vu Hoan, M.Eng, Climate Change and Food Security in Vietnam, Deputy Director of General Affairs Division, ICD Deputy Director of General Affairs Division, ICD- -MARD MARD⌂ Relevant Websites and Literature 1. Ardiansyah, Fitrian, and Putri, Desak (2011 February). "Risk and Resilience in Three Southeast Asian Cross-Border Areas: The Greater Mekong Sub region, the Heart of Borneo and the Coral Triangle." Retrieved September 11, 2011, from: http://fitrianardiansyah.wordpress.com/2011/02/23/risk-and-resilience-in-three-southeast-asian-cross-border-areas-the-greater-mekong-sub-region-the-heart-of-borneo-and-the-coral-triangle/2. CENTRA Technology, Inc., and Suitor Corporation (2010 January). "Southeast Asia: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030 - Geopolitical Implications." Retrieved November 22, 2011, from the National Intelligence Council: http://www.dni.gov/nic/special_climate2030.html3. International Centre for Environmental Management (ICEM) (2009, November 12 – 13). Mekong Delta Climate Change Forum Report Volume I. Retrieved September 11, 2011, from the International Centre for Environmental Management: http://www.icem.com.au/02_contents/06_materials/06-mdcc-page.htm4. Nguyen, Huu (2007). "Flooding in Mekong River Delta, Vietnam". Retrieved September 27, 2011, from the Human Development Report Office: http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CB0QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fhdr.undp.org%2Fen%2Freports%2Fglobal%2Fhdr2007-8%2Fpapers%2FNguyen_Huu%2520Ninh.pdf&ei=mUnRTunxE-jj0QGA0MyZBQ&usg=AFQjCNHSW-fz_3yVv36Sr6HgOfkhMrdNrw9 . Analyzing and assessing impacts on Mekong Delta in climate change scenarios. • Researching in detail impacts of climate change on inundation, salt intrusion,. by climate changes on agriculture production and economic growth. This paper examines these main impacts of climate change on agriculture in Mekong River