Main supply demand

http://needynotshy.com/vbforum/showthread.php?t=15 Use r Name Tym en's Board > Suppl y and Demand Tradi ng Supply & Demand Trading Journal Register FA Q Commu nity R emem ber Me? Password Calendar Today's Posts Search Page of 12 11 > Last » Thread Tools Display M odes 11-10-2010, 09:08 PM 60minuteman Se nior Memb er #1 Join Date: N ov 2010 Posts: 157 Supply & Demand Trading Jou rnal In an effort to improve my trading i have decided to start a journal of all my trades DISCLA IMER: THESE ARE NOT MY IDEAS, This is something i have learned and rings true to me, I can not guarantee it works, thats what we are he re for to find out! the system: I am currently in demo with systems, all work on the basis of supply and demand, you can call it support and resistance if you like, theyre the same but, its no good just picking any old, s/d you need to strong ones! So how we decipher s&d, and what makes it strong ? well first it is important that you grasp this idea only thing moves the market, not the news, not fibs, not indicators, not trend lines the only thing that will move price on your charts are orders to buy and orders to sell (i dont want to discuss this, its true) Price on your charts is a visual of those orders, at this price there was 100 orders to buy, and to sell which way is price going to go? up of course! here's a chart: http://needynotshy.com/vbforum/showthread.php?t=15 we can see price went from to 2, at point 2, what happened to price? it reversed quickly and dropped strongly why? because there was no more buy ers and lots of sellers who we think was buying just before price peaked? i bet it wasnt the banks! or institutions it was novice traders "the biggest mistake novice traders make is buying into a high and selling into a low" i was part of that group (These are the traders we want to take the money from ) So we can say at area there is a strong imbalance between supply and demand When price returned to that level at area 1, based on what we have just learnt, what can we assume will happen? exactly price will fall (not always, but you only need to be right at least 50% of the time to win with this system) Ok well we can see if you had set your short the re, you would have made a tidy profit! now go check your own charts and see this playt out time and time again RULES: These aren't really rules, but if finding the strong s&d areas is vital, we need some way of determining if it is strong or weak Thankfully that is easy too The areas have to be : rally-base-drop or drop-base-rally youre looking for places where price turned its only minor s& d if price was moving up, went sideways, then continued up rall y-base-rally is no good! By all means note these areas, but theyre not what you are looking for look at area and on the chart again rally-base-drop how long did price stay at this area a short time is good! this shows there is a big imbalance between s&d how did price leave this area gap is excellent but rare so we are looking for a strong move away area and on the chart again how far did it go this is your profitability area dropped about 350 pips we look for at least 3/1 profit, so a sl at area of 100 pips would of been ok you also want to have a decent amount of time between prices visit to an area, because obviously if price is constantly hanging around the area, then its not meeting rules 2, and http://needynotshy.com/vbforum/showthread.php?t=15 ENTRIES: for entries we need to draw in our s&d zones, the conventional teaching is to draw a single line, but thats just not realistic, price isnt going to turn right on the exact pip! so we draw a zone look at chart Attached Images 1.jpg (19.2 K B, 29 views) Last edited b y 60minutem an; 11-11-2010 at 01:35 PM 11-10-2010, 09:15 PM #2 http://needynotshy.com/vbforum/showthread.php?t=15 60minuteman Se nior Memb er Join Date: N ov 2010 Posts: 157 ok here i have drawn in the top and bottom lines of my supply zone you are just trying to capture the range of prices whe re price turned its subjective, but practice i am OK, SO WHEN DO WE PULL THE TRIGGER? this is the bit im always trying to find on threads i read, so ive put it in big letters for you there are approache s conservative and gun ho! im a gun ho trader, unfortunately for me but its upto you! conservative is to wait for price to come back to the area and show some signal that it has tur ned bollinger bands, fibs, whatever you like, if it makes you feel better, it gun ho! you just wait for price to enter the area, or even set a limit order on your line http://needynotshy.com/vbforum/showthread.php?t=15 Attached Images 2.jpg (19.8 K B, 11 views) Last edited b y 60minutem an; 11-10-2010 at 11:28 PM 11-10-2010, 09:28 PM 60minuteman Se nior Memb er #3 Join Date : N ov 010 Posts: 157 http://needynotshy.com/vbforum/showthread.php?t=15 STOP LOSS for your sl you use the top line (or bottom when going long) of your s&d zone TARGET upto you, i tend to take profit as price moves towards minor s/r zones, but this area im experimenting with, and hopefully we can explore some ideas as this thread grows or dies lol 11-10-2010, 09:32 PM 60minuteman Se nior Memb er #4 Join Date : N ov 010 Posts: 157 ok, now youre saying thats only system yes i know the others will come soon fir st lets see if we can make this a winning system I promise to post all my trades here that use this system, i will not cherry pick i dont need anyone to think im a great trader, i need to be one any support is greatly appreciated 11-10-2010, 09:53 PM 60minuteman Se nior Memb er ok just to get the ball rolling, he re is the first trade i ever took using this system and its a che rry (if i was going to pick 1lol) my sd zones were set on the daily (by the way this works on any tf) i entered on the first touch of the s&d zone result +428 #5 Join Date: N ov 2010 Posts: 157 http://needynotshy.com/vbforum/showthread.php?t=15 http://needynotshy.com/vbforum/showthread.php?t=15 Attached Images 3.jpg (16.4 K B, 10 views) Last edited b y 60minutem an; 11-10-2010 at 11:29 PM 11-10-2010, 10:02 PM #6 Join Date: Oct 2010 Locat ion: España Posts: 20pips Memb er Nice, I wondered what supply/demand zones were I sometimes trade something similar but use a line, MA or PA bar, often missing the trade because it didn't quite reach the trigger point or look right, I quite like the zone idea Last edited b y 20pips; 11-10-2 010 at 10:04 PM 11-10-2010, 10:08 PM 60minuteman Se nior Memb er here is my Eu trades from today, longs BE and +118 #7 Join Date: N ov 2010 Posts: 157 http://needynotshy.com/vbforum/showthread.php?t=15 Attached Images 4.jpg (17.5 K B, 11 views) Last edited b y 60minutem an; 11-10-2010 at 11:30 PM http://needynotshy.com/vbforum/showthread.php?t=15 11-10-2010, 10:24 PM 60minuteman Se nior Memb er gu long from today, from now on i will post entries and then results, just wanted you to get a visual idea of what im talking about #8 Join Date: N ov 2010 Posts: 157 http://needynotshy.com/vbforum/showthread.php?t=15&page=11 As you know sometimes 4HR can be trending but it could simply be part of a bigger rretracement on the daily, or even weekly I agree it can be subjective at times, or even unsure When thats the case, it probably means there isn't a trend and just ranging I believe you know the higher highs and lows stuff, so i don't think i'll even go to it However if you want to read about trend trading, there's a thread in babypips created by graviton titled multi time frame trading in the newbies section Have a read, or better still are you on skype? I could send you the PDF file for it, perharps you could gain better insight Good to know that you're doing well with SD, i rarely get much entries on it due to the fact that i look for higher TF entries, like 4HR and above Great to have you aboard and i look forward to learning more from you 02-04-2011, 05:56 PM 60minuteman Se nior Memb er #109 Join Date : N ov 010 Posts: 157 wow sorry i havent posted on he re for so long but i have been working on my own trading and i've got too much on my plate to be fair i will tr y and go through the posts this weekend and get things back upto date here's a thought in the meantime a stop loss should be at the point a long becomes a short and vice versa if your waiting to see if a demand level is going to hold so you can go long, what is a hi gh probability trade if preice breaks this level ???? as always, zoom out, look left i have lots more on this point and i will post some charts this weekend 02-04-2011, 08:51 PM #110 http://needynotshy.com/vbforum/showthread.php?t=15&page=11 60minuteman Se nior Memb er Join Date: N ov 2010 Posts: 157 ok here is one of the ways i use supply and demand to trade i will post some more examples, for now look at the charts and tell me your thoughts p.s the second chart is a 15m chart http://needynotshy.com/vbforum/showthread.php?t=15&page=11 Page 11 of 12 « First < 10 11 12 > « Previous Thread | Nex t Thread » Po sting Rules You You You You may may may may no t p ost new t hread s no t p ost replies no t p ost attachments no t edit your posts BB code is On Sm ilies are On Forum Jump http://needynotshy.com/vbforum/showthread.php?t=15&page=11 Po sting Rules [I MG] co de is On HTML co de is Off Forum R ules All t imes are GMT The tim e now is 11:25 A M Contact Us - Tymen's Message Bo ard - Archive - T op Powered by vB ulle tinđ Version 3.8 Copyright â2000 - 2011, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd http://needynotshy.com/vbforum/showthread.php?t=15&page=12 User Name Tymen's Board > Supply and Demand Trading Supply & Demand Trading Journal Register FAQ Remember Me? Password Community Calendar Today's Posts Search Page 12 of 12 « First < 10 11 12 Thread Tools 02-04-2011, 09:07 PM 60minuteman Senior Member ok and now how it works on zones that are respected Display Modes #111 Join Dat e: Nov 2010 Posts: 157 http://needynotshy.com/vbforum/showthread.php?t=15&page=12 http://needynotshy.com/vbforum/showthread.php?t=15&page=12 02-06-2011, 07:24 PM #112 http://needynotshy.com/vbforum/showthread.php?t=15&page=12 O990l6mh Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 24 Junior Member Quote: Originally Posted by pauleamonn Hi O990l6mh I think it’s very easy to ‘hindsight’ a trade – especially someone else’s – and give a critique on it but I’ll my best to try and avoid being influenced by subsequent events In short, I think you made two errors Firstly, you marked up the wrong area by setting your levels based on a supply zone that had been (by my interpretation of the Seiden rules) negated Second, you seem to give the same importance to the actual top as many others on here In some cases this attention is often neither deserved nor proves to be the focus of the move especially on the first visit back Well, looking at the 4H chart price does drop away pretty strongly from the level on Jan Looking back, what I see now is that due to how price behaved on the way back to the level, I would not have placed a limit order It was able to hang around just below the zone without much effort, which is a red flag The fact that it was not the first revisit either (it is actually the third not very hot in Sam's book) and also that price spent some time in the zone on the first revisit would also, as I know now, have caused me to either scrath the setup, or at least, wait for confirmation Quote: Originally Posted by pauleamonn That is not to say that Sam ignores pivots In this case he may have declared the area as a ‘level on a level’; in his eyes, a very high probability trade, though I doubt it From what I can see you took the supply level from the 21st Dec and decided that the revisit on the 27th was so comprehensively rejected that there would still be plenty of sellers in the area In this you were correct and the subsequent visit to the level on the 5th/6th Jan proved that there was still supply in the area However, on this visit the time at the level (from 15.00gmt to 11.00gmt) gave the market lots of opportunity to its thing Not only that but the price action also negated the original level’s value by (in Sam’s words) penetrating the zone by more than 50% That is one of the benchmarks he uses to judge as to whether he will entered on a second or subsequent revisit to a zone Looking back more carefully I realize that the lower border of the zone should have been at 1.2680-ish which would have, as you say, made the whole thing a non issue as there would never have been any trade in the location I picked Quote: Originally Posted by pauleamonn If we examine the main area upon which you based your trade levels, price was in the area for about 20 hours, much of that during the European and US sessions – lots of chopping of the tree trunk During that time the only attempt made by price to leave the area was during a 30 odd pip drop at the beginning of European trade possibly caused by the better than expect Chf CPI http://needynotshy.com/vbforum/showthread.php?t=15&page=12 figures announced at 8.15am This was quickly recovered during the second half of the morning when price moved back into the area for another hour or so – poor Eurozone retail sales figures? Then price dropped back down to the same level that turned it back up earlier and traded in a narrow range for a couple of hours Quote: Originally Posted by pauleamonn Then, and this to my mind is the big clue, price dropped 150 pips in not much more time than it took price to move the two 30 pip drops earlier in the day Now that is order exhaustion! Then it broke down some more and gave us the required 5:1 zone:return ratio that Sam looks for That is something I’ve not seen mentioned on any thread before and is one of the things that Sam considers important to a low risk trade In short, it stretches the elastic band I'm not sure I'm follwing quite here? This strong drop would then suggest a major imbalance of s/d having come about right? Wouldn't that then support the view that the zone is still valid even though it has been revisited before? You write 5:1? I haven't heard anything else that 3:1 or better said by Sam in his webinars Please elaborate? Quote: Originally Posted by pauleamonn However, in the end, it would have been all for nought as the trade didn’t work out anyway Even by taking 12670 as the entry and putting the stop past the back of the zone at 12702, therefore giving us a 3:1 profit to the next opposing demand level (12556), price still didn’t get down there Therefore, from my understanding of the Seiden method, as he doesn’t move his stop loss to breakeven until the first target is hit which, in this case, it wasn’t, the trade would have ended up as a loser Not moving stops is what I've heard him say as well, although he said at one occasion or another that one might consider moving to break even at 2R, but that it's not something he himself does Quote: Originally Posted by pauleamonn Anyway, those are my thoughts, for what they are worth I hope it helps It certainly does! I must not fear Fear is the mind-killer Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration I will face my fear Part of: Bene Gesserit Litany Against Fear 02-06-2011, 07:25 PM O990l6mh Junior Member #113 Join Dat e: Oct 2010 Posts: 24 http://needynotshy.com/vbforum/showthread.php?t=15&page=12 Quote: Originally Posted by 60minuteman ok and now how it works on zones that are respected http://needynotshy.com/vbforum/showthread.php?t=15&page=12 So you're basically using 1-2-3 setups in conjunction with Seiden's zones? http://needynotshy.com/vbforum/showthread.php?t=15&page=12 I must not fear Fear is the mind-killer Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration I will face my fear Part of: Bene Gesserit Litany Against Fear 02-07-2011, 12:38 AM 60minuteman Senior Member #114 Join Dat e: Nov 2010 Posts: 157 Quote: Originally Posted by O990l6mh So you're basically using 1-2-3 setups in conjunction with Seiden's zones? yes, I have been trying lots of price action trading and they seem to be very reliable I always keep an open mind and view a supply and demand zone as a good location for a short OR long trade, so wether the zone is respected or not there is usually a good trade to be had 02-11-2011, 01:37 PM squiggl yline Junior Member #115 Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: hey 60 nice thread its good to see a true sam seiden thread in action - hopefully we can keep it alive 02-14-2011, 12:54 PM 60minuteman Senior Member Quote: Originally Posted by squigglyline hey 60 nice thread its good to see a true sam seiden thread in action - hopefully we can keep it alive Thanks squiggly cool name you should take a look at my fibalicous thread too in general trend trading #116 Join Dat e: Nov 2010 Posts: 157 http://needynotshy.com/vbforum/showthread.php?t=15&page=12 03-29-2011, 05:27 AM ardoc Junior Member #117 Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: I am trader of ready made new summer stuff I had been starting my trading business for previous months I want to expand my business, Do tell me how it is possible What the new thing that I really start for earning more profit Thanks in advance THIS POST DOES NOT REALLY ADDRESS THE SUBJECT - Administration Phoenix Homes for Sale Last edited by tymen1; 03-29-2011 at 05:01 PM Reason: largely irrelevant 04-01-2011, 08:44 PM 60minuteman Senior Member #118 Join Dat e: Nov 2010 Posts: 157 perhaps go to the fxstreet.com website, watch a few webinars and see what type of trading appeals to you sam seiden rob booker chris capre all good traders and teachers good luck 04-22-2011, 09:42 PM sheth39 Junior Member #119 Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: supply and demand zon e earlier in the thread there was talk about coming up with rules for supply zone and demand zone any news on that? otherwise if u put tight stop loss and ur wrong in placing the zone lines correct u will be stopped out more often even though u correctly identified trade http://needynotshy.com/vbforum/showthread.php?t=15&page=12 thanks hope for the reply 05-19-2011, 08:35 AM #120 Join Date: May 2011 Location: USA Posts: Langer Junior Member Excellent work here and important tips here about the supply demand objectives,Really learning and informative.Keep it up Deed in Lieu Page 12 of 12 « First < 10 11 12 « Previous Thread | Next Thread » Posting Rules You You You You may not may not may not may not post new threads post replies post attachments edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Forum Jump Forum Rules All times are GMT The time now is 11:26 AM Contact Us - Tymen's Message Board - Archive - Top Powered by vBulletinđ Version 3.8.6 Copyright â2000 - 2011, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd http://needynotshy.com/vbforum/showthread.php?t=15 Po sting Rules BB code is On Sm ilies are On [I MG] co de is On HTML co de is Off Forum R ules All t imes are GMT The tim e now is 11:06 A M Contact Us - Tymen's Message Bo ard - Archive - T op Powered by vB ulle tin® Version 3.8 Copyright ©2000 - 2011, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd