163 In the SC4 Water scenario, similar to the SC1 BAU and SC3 Food scenarios, the total energy demand of Vietnam over 2014–2030 would increase at 7 5%, reaching 561 3 Mtoe by 2030 (Table 6 2 and Figur[.]
163 In the SC4 Water scenario, similar to the SC1 BAU and SC3 Food scenarios, the total energy demand of Vietnam over 2014–2030 would increase at 7.5%, reaching 561.3 Mtoe by 2030 (Table 6-2 and Figure 6-3) The current drivers of energy demand growth include industrialization, urbanization, level of transport mechanization, and population growth Another primary contribution to the increase of energy consumption in SC4 is the huge energy demand for sewage water treatment and new technology in water drop irrigation, which is the main policy focus of this scenario In particular, the primary energy demand in SC4 would increase by 8.1% annually, which is close to the increases in SC1 and SC3, and % lower than the rise in the SC2 scenario The absence of new technology and resources for energy generation in SC4 would worsen dependency on energy fossil fuels, whereas the demand for coal, oil, and gas would be 30.6%, 26.3%, and 13.1% of primary energy demand, respectively (Figure 6-4) Therefore, total demand for fossil fuel energy would amount to 386.2 MToe, equivalent to increased 2.2 times compared to base year Figure 6-4: Share of fuel type in primary energy demand, various scenarios (%) Source: Estimates are based on modelling developed in this research