190 efficiency Among the various scenarios, SC6 is the second best in delivering a significant improvement of food import dependency, which reflects a proper long term policy in the energy–food–water[.]
190 efficiency Among the various scenarios, SC6 is the second best in delivering a significant improvement of food import dependency, which reflects a proper long-term policy in the energy–food–water nexus policy with low carbon emissions during 2014–2030 6.2.3 Food Affordability In this research, food affordability is expressed by the ratio of household income spent on food and the total household expenditure This indicates the vulnerability of Vietnamese households to increasing food prices Compared with the base year (2014), this attribute would vary moderately among the scenarios, with improvements in SC3, SC5, and SC6 but slight worsening in SC1, SC2, and SC4 (Figure 6-21) In the SC1 BAU scenario, the food affordability index would marginally worsen, reduced by 4.1 % from 41.2% in the base year (2014) to 39.5% in 2030 With the continuation of existing policies that not prioritize food security to meet increased food demand from rapid population growth, food prices will inevitably come under pressure to increase Meanwhile, major resources (i.e land, labour, and water) for food (especially agricultural) production have declined, mainly due to rapid urbanization and industrialization over the last decades, which would become an even more critical issue in years to come In the SC2 Energy scenario, Vietnamese consumers are likely to spend a much larger proportion of their income on food (19% in 2030) Hence, in this scenario, the country would achieve the lowest food affordability index (36.8) over the next 16 years This is equivalent to a decrease of 4.4 % and 2.7 % in 2030, compared with the base year (2014) and SC1 scenario, respectively Similar to the other food security attributes, food affordability would be negatively impacted, thereby leading to lower food output by the narrowing of finite water and land reserves for agricultural production of the SC2 scenario, which is a result of the energy-focused policy approach Meanwhile, in Vietnam, the world’s 14th most populous country with a population of 91.91 million, population growth is expected to increase by 14.3% by 2030 to 4105 million people, and therefore, this policy approach would apparently worsen food affordability in the next decades